第二十六章公司财务模型和长期计划

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26-4
Sales Forecast
• All financial plans require a sales forecast. • Perfect foreknowledge is impossible since sales
26-0
26.1 What is Corporate Financial Planning?
• It formulates the method by which financial goals are to be achieved.
• There are two dimensions:
1. A Time Frame
• Suppose a financial planner assumes that sales, costs, and net income will rise at g1. Further, suppose that the planner desires assets and liabilities to grow at a different rate, g2. These two rates may be incompatible unless a third variable is adjusted. For example, compatibility may only be reached is outstanding stock grows at a third rate, g3.
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26-7
Financial Requirements
• The plan will include a section on financing arrangements.
Assets Sales Debt ΔSales ( p Projected Sales)(1-d)
Sales
Sales
(1.5 $2m) (0.80 $2m) (0.10 $22m 0.5)
$1.4m $1.1m
$300,000
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• Dividend policy and capital structure policy should be addressed.
• If new funds are to be raised, the plan should consider what kinds of securities must be sold and what methods of issuance are most appropriate.
depend on the uncertain future state of the economy. • Businesses that specialize in macroeconomic and
industry projects can be help in estimating sales.
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26-9
Economic Assumptions
• The plan must explicitly state the economic environment in which the firm expects to reside over the life of the plan.
Will the firm be able to finance growth in sales with retained earnings and forecast increases in debt?
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26-2
What Will the Planning Process Accomplish?
• Interactions
– The plan must make explicit the linkages between investment proposals and the firm’s financing choices.
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26-3 26.2 A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients
1. Sales forecast 2. Pro forma statements 3. Asset requirements 4. Financial requirements 5. Plug 6. Economic assumptions
The Rosengarten Corporation is think of acquiring a new machine. The machine will increase sales from $20 million to $22 million—10% growth.
The firm believes that its assets and liabilities grow directly with its level of sales. Its profit margin on sales is 10%, and its dividend-payout ratio is 50%.
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26-5
Pro Forma Statements
• The financial plan will have a forecast balance sheet, a forecast income statement, and a forecast sourcesand-uses-of-cash statement.
26-13 The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet:
1. Express balance-sheet items that vary with sales as a percentage of sales.
• Options
– The plan provides an opportunity for the firm to weigh its various options.
• Feasibility • Avoiding Surprises
– Nobody plans to fail, but many fail to plan.
• Interest rate forecasts are part of the plan.
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26-10
A Brief Example
• Short run is probably anything less than a year.
• Long run is anything over that; usually taken to be a two-year to five-year period.
2. A Level of Aggregation
– Each division might be asked to prepare three different plans for the near term future:
– A Worst Case – A Normal Case – A Best Case
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$4
Constant
$11.1
Net Income
$32.7
$300,000
Funds needed
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26-12
A Brief Example: EFN
• The external funds needed
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26-8
Plug
• Compatibility across various growth targets will usually require adjustment in a third variable.
Total financing $30
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Pro forma Balance Sheet
Explanation
$6.6
30% of sales
$26.4
120% of sales
$33
150% of sales
$11
50% of sales$6Βιβλιοθήκη 630% of sales
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26-1
26.1 What is Corporate Financial Planning?
• Scenario Analysis
• Each division and operational unit should have a plan.
• As the capital-budgeting analyses of each of the firm’s divisions are added up, the firm aggregates these small projects as a big project.
26-11
A Brief Example
Current Balance Sheet
(millions)
Current assets
$6
Fixed assets
$24
Total assets
$30
Short-term debt $10
Long-term debt $6
Common stock $4
Retained Earnings $10
• The financial plan will describe projected capital spending.
• In addition it will the discuss the proposed uses of net working capital.
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• These are called pro forma statements or pro formas.
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26-6
Asset Requirements