方案规划和战略管理 - 如何处理不确定性
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方案规划和战略管理 如何处理 不确定性 Scenario Planning: An Alternative Way of Dealing with Uncertainty
1
Assumptions of scenario planning
1. Managers are not able to make valid assessments of probabilities of unique future events
• Decisions are then tested for robustness in the ‘wind tunnel’ of the set of scenarction: The extreme world method
1. 2.
3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
9
Identify the issue of concern and horizon year Identify current trends that have an impact on the issue of concern Identify critical uncertainties Identify whether trends and uncertainties have a negative or positive impact on issue of concern Create extreme worlds Add predetermined trends to both scenarios Check for internal consistency Add in actions of individuals and organizations
6
Testing the robustness of strategies against scenarios
7
When should a company use scenario planning?
1. When uncertainty is high 2. Too many costly surprises have occurred in the past 3. Insufficient new opportunities are perceived or generated 4. The industry has experienced significant change, or is about to 5. Strong differences of opinion exist, each of which has its merits
8
Typical outcomes of scenario planning
• ‘This is what we have to do’ (developing new business opportunities) • ‘We better think again’ (understanding outcomes of plans better) • ‘We better watch those dots on the horizon’ (perceiving weak signals of new developments) • ‘We are in the right track’ (moving forward with more confidence)
2. Best guesses of the future may be wrong 3. Minority opinions should be allowed ‘airtime’
2
What are scenarios?
• A scenario is not a forecast of the future – multiple scenarios are pen pictures encompassing a range of plausible futures • Each scenario has an infinitesimal probability of occurrence, but the range of the set of scenarios is constructed to BOUND uncertainties seen to be inherent in the future • Unlike probability judgments, scenarios highlight the reasoning underlying judgments about the future
3
More on scenarios
• A major focus is how the future can evolve from now to the horizon year • Relationship between critical uncertainties, predetermined trends and behavior of actors is thought through
5
Examples of predetermined trends
Demographic: Technology: capacity Political: Cultural: Economic: population growth, birth rates growth rates, production power shifts, budget deficits changing values, spending patterns disposable incomes, investment levels
1
Assumptions of scenario planning
1. Managers are not able to make valid assessments of probabilities of unique future events
• Decisions are then tested for robustness in the ‘wind tunnel’ of the set of scenarction: The extreme world method
1. 2.
3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
9
Identify the issue of concern and horizon year Identify current trends that have an impact on the issue of concern Identify critical uncertainties Identify whether trends and uncertainties have a negative or positive impact on issue of concern Create extreme worlds Add predetermined trends to both scenarios Check for internal consistency Add in actions of individuals and organizations
6
Testing the robustness of strategies against scenarios
7
When should a company use scenario planning?
1. When uncertainty is high 2. Too many costly surprises have occurred in the past 3. Insufficient new opportunities are perceived or generated 4. The industry has experienced significant change, or is about to 5. Strong differences of opinion exist, each of which has its merits
8
Typical outcomes of scenario planning
• ‘This is what we have to do’ (developing new business opportunities) • ‘We better think again’ (understanding outcomes of plans better) • ‘We better watch those dots on the horizon’ (perceiving weak signals of new developments) • ‘We are in the right track’ (moving forward with more confidence)
2. Best guesses of the future may be wrong 3. Minority opinions should be allowed ‘airtime’
2
What are scenarios?
• A scenario is not a forecast of the future – multiple scenarios are pen pictures encompassing a range of plausible futures • Each scenario has an infinitesimal probability of occurrence, but the range of the set of scenarios is constructed to BOUND uncertainties seen to be inherent in the future • Unlike probability judgments, scenarios highlight the reasoning underlying judgments about the future
3
More on scenarios
• A major focus is how the future can evolve from now to the horizon year • Relationship between critical uncertainties, predetermined trends and behavior of actors is thought through
5
Examples of predetermined trends
Demographic: Technology: capacity Political: Cultural: Economic: population growth, birth rates growth rates, production power shifts, budget deficits changing values, spending patterns disposable incomes, investment levels