Alternative Models of the Short-Term
2022年高考英语作文热点话题含范文18篇
2022年高考英语作文热点话题含范文18篇一、北京冬奥1．（2022·北京西城·高三期末）假设你是红星中学高三学生李华。
你校英文网站将新增“Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics”版块，现正征集栏目设置建议。
你想参加此次活动，请给负责人Mr. Smith写信，内容包括：1. 你最想设置的一个栏目及其内容；2. 设置该栏目的理由。
注意：1. 词数100左右；2. 开头和结尾已给出，不计入总词数。
Dear Mr. Smith,_____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________Sincerely,Li Hua 【答案】例文Dear Mr. Smith,I’m Li Hua, a senior from Hongxing Middle School. I am glad that there will be a new column about Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics in our school website. In terms of this column, I have higher expectation to Olympic athletes who are from different countries.In order to introduce athletes, we can focus on not only their gold medals, but also their inspiring stories. Most of students always adore athletes and consider them as models because of their tremendous spirit. The spirit teaches us not to give up forever, and encourages us not to be afraid of frustration. I think these mottoscan help seniors build up confidence and succeed in college entrance examination.Thanks for giving me a chance to express my idea. Looking forward to your early reply.Sincerely,Li Hua【分析】本篇书面表达属于应用文。
计量经济学中英文词汇对照
cross-loading Cross-over design Cross-section analysis Cross-section survey
Cross-sectional
Crosstabs Cross-tabulation table Cube root Cumulative distribution function Cumulative probability Curvature Curvature Curve fit Curve fitting Curvilinear regression Curvilinear relation Cut-and-try method Cycle
Controlled experiments Conventional depth Convolution Corrected factor Corrected mean Correction coefficient Correctness Correlation coefficient Correlation index Correspondence Counting Counts Covariance Covariant Cox Regression Criteria for fitting Criteria of least squares Critical ratio Critical region Critical value
Cyclist DDD D test Data acquisition Data bank Data capacity Data deficiencies Data handling Data manipulation Data processing Data reduction Data set Data sources Data transformation Data validity Data-in Data-out Dead time Degree of freedom Degree of precision Degree of reliability Degression Density function Density of data points Dependent variable Dependent variable Depth Derivative matrix Derivative-free methods Design Determinacy Determinant Determinant Deviation Deviation from average Diagnostic plot Dichotomous variable Differential equation Direct standardization Discrete variable DISCRIMINANT Discriminant analysis Discriminant coefficient
英语证书考试美国经企管理研究生入学考试(GMT)模拟题2020年(14)_真题-无答案(506)
英语证书考试美国经企管理研究生入学考试(GMT)模拟题2020年(14)(总分100,考试时间75分钟)阅读理解Human beings, born with a drive to explore and experiment, thrive on learning. Unfortunately, corporations are oriented predominantly toward controlling employees, not fostering their learning. Ironically, this orientation creates the very conditions that predestine employees to mediocre performances. Over time, superior performance requires superior learning, because long-term corporate survival depends on continually exploring new business and organizational opportunities that can create new sources of growth.To survive in the future, corporations must become "learning organizations," enterprises that are constantly able to adapt and expand their capabilities. To accomplish this, corporations must change how they view employees. The traditional view that a single charismatic leader should set the corporation's direction and make key decisions is rooted in an individualistic worldview. In an increasingly interdependent world, such a view is no longer viable. In learning organizations, thinking and acting are integrated at all job levels. Corporate leadership is shared, and leaders become designers, teachers, and stewards, roles requiring new skills: the ability to build shared vision, to reveal and challenge prevailing mental models, and to foster broader, more integrated patterns of thinking. In short, leaders in learning organizations are responsible for building organizations in which employees are continually learning new skills and expanding their capabilities to shape their future.1. 1.According to the passage, traditional corporate leaders differ from leaders in learning organizations in that the formerA. encourage employees to concentrate on developing a wide range of skillsB. enable employees to recognize and confront dominant corporate models and to develop alternative modelsC. make important policy decisions alone and then require employees in the corporation to abide by those decisionsD. instill confidence in employees because of their willingness to make risky decisions and accept their consequencesE. are concerned with offering employees frequent advice and career guidance2. 2.Which of the following best describes employee behavior encouraged within learning organizations, as such organizations are described in the passage?A. Carefully defining one's job description and taking care to avoid deviations from itB. Designing mentoring programs that train new employees to follow procedures that have beenused for many yearsC. Concentrating one's efforts on mastering one aspect of a complicated taskD. Studying an organizational problem, preparing a report, and submitting it to a corporate leader for approvalE. Analyzing a problem related to productivity, making a decision about a solution, and implementing that solution3. 3.According to the author of the passage, corporate leaders of the future should do which of the following?A. They should encourage employees to put long-term goals ahead of short-term profits.B. They should exercise more control over employees in order to constrain production costs.C. They should redefine incentives for employees' performance improvement.D. They should provide employees with opportunities to gain new skills and expand their capabilities.E. They should promote individual managers who **mitted to **pany policies.4. 4.The primary purpose of the passage is toA. endorse a traditional corporate structureB. introduce a new approach to corporate leadership and evaluate criticisms of itC. **peting theories about management practices and reconcile themD. contrast two typical corporate organizational structuresE. propose an alternative to a common corporate approachStructural unemployment—the unemployment that remains even at the peak of the economy's upswings—is caused by an imbalance between the types and locations of available employment on the one hand and the qualifications and locations of workers on the other hand. When such an imbalance exists, both labor shortages and unemployment may occur, despite a balance between supply and demand for labor in the economy as a whole.Because technological change is likely to displace some workers, it is a major factor in producing structural unemployment. While technological advance almost invariably results in shifts in demands for different types of workers, it does not necessarily result in unemployment. Relatively small or gradual changes in demand are likely to cause little unemployment. In the individual firm or even in the labor market as a whole, normal attrition may be sufficient to reduce the size of the work force in the affected occupations. Relatively large or rapid changes, however, can cause serious problems. Workers may lose their jobs and find themselves without the skills necessary to obtain new jobs. Whether this displacement leads to structural unemployment depends on the amount of public and private sector resources devoted to retraining and placing those workers. Workers can be encouraged to move where there are jobs, to reeducate or retrain themselves, or to retire. In addition, other factors affecting structural unemployment, such as capital movement, can be controlled.Increased structural unemployment, should it occur, makes it difficult for the economy to achieve desired low rates of unemployment along with low rates of inflation. If there is a growing pool of workers who lack the necessary skills for the available jobs, increases in total labor demand will rapidly generate shortages of qualified workers. As the wages of those workers are bid up, labor costs, and thus prices, rise. This phenomenon may be an important factor in the rising trend, observed for the past two decades, of **bined with inflation. Government policy has placed a priority on reducing inflation, but these efforts have nevertheless caused unemployment toincrease.5. 5.All of the following are mentioned as ways of controlling the magnitude of structural unemployment EXCEPTA. using public funds to create jobsB. teaching new skills to displaced workersC. allowing displaced workers to retireD. controlling the movement of capitalE. encouraging workers to move to where jobs are available6. 6.The passage suggests that a potential outcome of higher structural unemployment isA. increased public spending for social servicesB. placement of workers in jobs for which they are not qualifiedC. higher wages for those workers who have skills that are in demandD. an increase in the length of time jobs remain unfilledE. a shift in the government's economic policy priorities7. 7.It can be inferred from the passage that even when there are unemployed workers, labor shortages are still likely to occur ifA. the inflation rate is unusually highB. there is insufficient technological innovationC. the level of structural unemployment is exceptionally lowD. the jobs available in certain places require skills that the labor force in those areas lacksE. the workers in some industries are dissatisfied with the pay offered in those industries8. 8.The passage suggests that the phenomenon of combined unemployment and inflation isA. a socioeconomic problem that can only be addressed by government interventionB. a socioeconomic problem that can be characteristic of periods of structural unemploymentC. an economic problem that results from government intervention in management-labor relationsD. an economic problem that results from imperfect applications of technologyE. an economic problem that can be eliminated by relatively small changes in the labor force9. 9.The passage is primarily concerned withA. clarifying the definition of a conceptB. proposing a way to eliminate an undesirable conditionC. discussing the sources and consequences of a problemD. suggesting ways to alleviate the effects of a particular social policyE. evaluating the steps that have been taken to correct an imbalance10. 10.According to the passage, small downward shifts in the demand for labor will not usually cause unemployment becauseA. such shifts are frequently accompanied by upswings in the economyB. such shifts usually occur slowlyC. workers can be encouraged to move to where there are jobsD. normal attrition is often sufficient to reduce the size of the work forceE. workers are usually flexible enough to learn new skills and switch to new jobsIn 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by identifying precursory phenomena (those that occur a few days before large quakes but not otherwise) turned their attention to changes in seismic waves that had been detected prior to earthquakes. An explanation for such changes was offered by "dilatancy theory," based on a well-known phenomenon observedin rocks in the laboratory: as stress builds, microfractures in rock close, decreasing the rock's volume. But as stress continues to increase, the rock begins to crack and expand in volume, allowing groundwater to seep in, weakening the rock. According to this theory, such effects could lead to several precursory phenomena in the field, including a change in the velocity of seismic waves, and an increase in small, nearby tremors.Researchers initially reported success in identifying these possible precursors, but subsequent analyses of their data proved disheartening. Seismic waves with unusual velocities were recorded before some earthquakes, but while the historical record confirms that most large earthquakes are preceded by minor tremors, these foreshocks indicate nothing about the magnitude of an impending quake and are indistinguishable from other minor tremors that occur without large earthquakes.In the 1980s, some researchers turned their efforts from short-term to long-term prediction. Noting that earthquakes tend to occur repeatedly in certain regions, Lindh and Baker attempted to identify patterns of recurrence, or earthquake cycles, on which to base predictions. In a study of earthquake-prone sites along the San Andreas Fault, they determined that quakes occurred at intervals of approximately 22 years near one site and concluded that there was a 95 percent probability of an earthquake in that area by 1992. The earthquake did not occur within the time frame predicted, however.Evidence against the kind of regular earthquake cycles that Lindh and Baker tried to establish **e from a relatively new field, paleoseismology. Paleoseismologists have unearthed and dated geological features such as fault scarps that were caused by earthquakes thousands of years ago. They have determined that the average interval between ten earthquakes that took place at one site along the San Andreas Fault in the past two millennia was 132 years, but individual intervals ranged greatly, from 44 to 332 years.11. 11.The passage is primarily concerned withA. explaining why one method of earthquake prediction has proven more practicable than an alternative methodB. suggesting that accurate earthquake forecasting **bine elements of long-term and short-term predictionC. challenging the usefulness of dilatancy theory for explaining the occurrence of precursory phenomenaD. discussing the deficiency of two methods by which researchers have attempted to predict the occurrence of earthquakesE. describing the development of methods for establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes12. 12.According to the passage, laboratory evidence concerning the effects of stress on rocks might help account forA. differences in magnitude among earthquakesB. certain phenomena that occur prior to earthquakesC. variations in the intervals between earthquakes in a particular areaD. differences in the frequency with which earthquakes occur in various areasE. the unreliability of short-term earthquake predictions13. 13.It can be inferred from the passage that one problem with using precursory phenomena to predict earthquakes is that minor tremorsA. typically occur some distance from the sites of the large earthquakes that follow themB. are directly linked to the mechanisms that cause earthquakesC. are difficult to distinguish from major tremorsD. have proven difficult to measure accuratelyE. are not always followed by large earthquakes14. 14.According to the passage, some researchers based their research about long-term earthquake prediction on which of the following facts?A. The historical record confirms that most earthquakes have been preceded by minor tremors.B. The average interval between earthquakes in one region of the San Andreas Fault is 132 years.C. Some regions tend to be the site of numerous earthquakes over the course of many years.D. Changes in the volume of rock can occur as a result of building stress and can lead to the weakening of rock.E. Paleoseismologists have been able to unearth and date geological features caused by past earthquakes.15. 15.The passage suggests which of the following about the paleoseismologists' findings described in lines 42-50?A. They suggest that the frequency with which earthquakes occurred at a particular site decreased significantly over the past two millennia.B. They suggest that paleoseismologists may someday be able to make reasonably accurate long-term earthquake predictions.C. They suggest that researchers may someday be able to determine which past occurrences of minor tremors were actually followed by large earthquakes.D. They suggest that the recurrence of earthquakes in earthquake-prone sites is too irregular to serve as a basis for earthquake prediction.E. They indicate that researchers attempting to develop long-term methods of earthquake prediction have overlooked important evidence concerning the causes of earthquakes.16. 16.The author implies which of the following about the ability of the researchers mentioned in line 18 to predict earthquakes?A. They can identify when an earthquake is likely to occur but not how large it will be.B. They can identify the regions where earthquakes are likely to occur but not when they will occur.C. They are unable to determine either the time or the place that earthquakes are likely to occur.D. They are likely to be more accurate at short-term earthquake prediction than at long-term earthquake prediction.E. They can determine the regions where earthquakes have occurred in the past but not the regions where they are likely to occur in the future.A key decision required of advertising managers is whether a "hard-sell" or "soft-sell" strategy is appropriate for a specific target market. The hardsell approach involves the use of direct, forceful claims regarding the benefits of the advertised brand **petitors' offerings. In contrast, the soft-sell approach involves the use of advertising claims that imply superiority more subtly.One positive aspect of the hard-sell approach is its use of very simple and straightforward product claims presented as explicit conclusions, with little room for confusion regarding the advertiser's message. However, some consumers may resent being told what to believe and some may distrust the message. Resentment and distrust often lead to counterargumentation and to boomerangeffects where **e to believe conclusions diametrically opposed to conclusions endorsed in advertising claims. By contrast, the risk of boomerang effects is greatly reduced with soft-sell approaches. One way to implement the soft-sell approach is to provide information that implies the main conclusions the advertiser wants the consumer to draw, but leave the conclusions themselves unstated. Because consumers are invited to make up their own minds, implicit conclusions reduce the risk of resentment, distrust, and counterargumentation.Recent research on consumer memory and judgment suggests another advantage of implicit conclusions. Beliefs or conclusions that are self-generated are more accessible from memory than beliefs from conclusions provided explicitly by other individuals, and thus have a greater impact on judgment and decision making. Moreover, self-generated beliefs are often perceived as more accurate and valid than the beliefs of others, because other individuals may be perceived as less knowledgeable, or may be perceived as manipulative or deliberately misleading.Despite these advantages, implicit conclusions may not always be more effective than explicit conclusions. One risk is that some consumers may fail to draw their own conclusions and thus miss the point of the message. Inferential activity is likely only when consumers are motivated and able to engage in effortful cognitive processes. Another risk is that some consumers may draw conclusions other than the one intended. Even if inferential activity is likely there is no guarantee that consumers will follow the path provided by the advertiser. Finally, a third risk is that consumers may infer the intended conclusion but question the validity of their inference.17. 17.It can be inferred from the passage that one reason an advertiser might prefer a hard-sell approach to a soft-sell approach is thatA. the risks of boomerang effects are minimized when the conclusions an advertiser wants the consumer to draw are themselves left unstatedB. counterargumentation is likely from consumers who fail to draw their own conclusions regarding an advertising claimC. inferential activity is likely to occur even if consumers perceive themselves to be more knowledgeable than the individuals presenting product claimsD. research on consumer memory suggests that the explicit conclusions provided by an advertiser using the hard-sell approach have a significant impact on decision makingE. the information presented by an advertiser using the soft-sell approach may imply different conclusions to different consumers18. 18.Each of the following is mentioned in the passage as a characteristic of the hard-sell approach EXCEPT:A. Its overall message is readily grasped.B. It appeals to consumers' knowledge about the product.C. It makes explicit claims that the advertised brand is superior to other brands.D. It uses statements that are expressed very clearly.E. It makes claims in the form of direct conclusions.19. 19.It can be inferred from the passage that advertisers could reduce one of the risks discussed in the last paragraph if they were able to provideA. motivation for consumers to think about the advertisement's messageB. information that implies the advertiser's intended conclusion but leaves that conclusion unstatedC. subtle evidence that the advertised product is superior to that of competitorsD. **paring the advertised product with **petitorsE. opportunity for consumers to generate their own beliefs or conclusions20. 20.The primary purpose of the passage is toA. point out the risks involved in the use of a particular advertising strategyB. make a case for the superiority of one advertising strategy over anotherC. illustrate the ways in which two advertising strategies may be implementedD. present the advantages and disadvantages of two advertising strategiesE. contrast the types of target markets for which two advertising strategies are appropriate21. 21.Which of the following best describes the function of the sentence in lines 25-28 in the context of the passage as a whole?A. It reiterates a distinction between two advertising strategies that is made in the first paragraph.B. It explains how a particular strategy avoids a drawback described earlier in the paragraph.C. It suggests that a risk described earlier in the paragraph is less serious than some researchers believe it to be.D. It outlines why the strategy described in the previous sentence involves certain risks for an advertiser.E. It introduces an argument that will be refuted in the following paragraph.22. 22.It can be inferred from the passage that one situation in which the boomerang effect often occurs is when consumersA. have been exposed to forceful claims that are diametrically opposed to those in an advertiser's messageB. have previous self-generated beliefs or conclusions that are readily accessible from memoryC. are subjected to advertising messages that are targeted at specific markets to which those consumers do not belongD. are confused regarding the point of the advertiser's messageE. come to view the advertiser's message with suspicion23. 23.It can be inferred from the passage that the research mentioned in line 29 supports which of the following statements?A. Implicit conclusions are more likely to capture accurately the point of the advertiser's message than are explicit conclusions.B. Counterargumentation is less likely to occur if an individual's beliefs or conclusions are readily accessible from memory.C. The hard-sell approach results in conclusions that are more difficult for the consumer to recall than are conclusions resulting from the soft-sell approach.D. When the beliefs of others are presented as definite and forceful claims, they are perceived to be as accurate as self-generated beliefs.E. Despite the advantages of implicit conclusions, the hard-sell approach involves fewer risks for the advertiser than does the soft-sell approach.。
Peer Review Process
Peer Review ProcessThe peer review process is a critical component of the academic and scientific community, serving as a means to ensure the quality and validity of research and scholarly work. However, this process is not without its challenges and criticisms. From the perspective of authors, peer review can be a daunting and anxiety-inducing experience, as their work is subjected to the scrutiny of their peers. This can lead to feelings of vulnerability and self-doubt, especially if the feedback is harsh or overly critical. On the other hand, from the perspective of reviewers, the peer review process can be time-consuming and often thankless, with little recognition or compensation for their efforts. Additionally, there are concerns about the potential for bias or conflicts of interest among reviewers, which can undermine the integrity of the process.From the standpoint of journal editors, the peer review process presents its own set of challenges. They must carefully select appropriate reviewers for each submission, manage the timely completion of reviews, and make difficult decisions about the acceptance or rejection of manuscripts based on the feedback received. This can be a demanding and high-pressure role, as editors strive to maintain the quality and reputation of their publication while also balancing the needs and expectations of authors and reviewers.Furthermore, there are broader systemic issues within the peer review process that warrant consideration. For example, the traditional peer review model has been criticized for its lack of transparency and accountability, as well as its potential to perpetuate biases and gatekeeping within the academic community. Moreover, the current peer review system is often slow and inefficient, leading to delays in the dissemination of important research findings. These issues have prompted calls for alternative models of peer review, such as open peer review or post-publication peer review, which aim to address some of these shortcomings.Despite these challenges, it is important to recognize the value of the peer review process in upholding the standards of academic and scientific integrity. Peer review serves as a safeguard against the dissemination of flawed or fraudulent research, helping to maintain the credibility and trustworthiness of scholarly work. Additionally, the feedbackprovided through the peer review process can be invaluable for authors, offering constructive criticism and suggestions for improvement that can ultimately strengthen their work.In conclusion, the peer review process is a complex and multifaceted aspect of scholarly communication, with implications for authors, reviewers, editors, and the broader academic community. While it is not without its flaws and criticisms, it remains a crucial mechanism for ensuring the quality and validity of research and scholarship. As such, it is important to continue to critically evaluate and improve the peer review process, addressing its shortcomings while preserving its essential role in maintaining the integrity of academic and scientific work.。
问题解决外文文献
The Chinese Version of the Social Problem-SolvingInventory:Some Initial Results on Reliabilityand ValidityᮢAndrew M.H.SiuHong Kong Polytechnic UniversityᮢDaniel T.L.ShekThe Chinese University of Hong KongThe development of an instrument that measures social problem solvingof Chinese adolescents is reported.The Social Problem-Solving InventoryRevised(SPSI-R)was translated to Chinese,and content validity,culturalrelevance,and reading level of the translated measure were reviewed bypanels of experts.The Chinese version of the scale(C-SPSI-R)was thenadministered to a sample of352junior secondary-school students.Explor-atory factor analyses revealed a5-factor structure that was largely consis-tent with the structure of the original English-language SPSI-R.The C-SPSI-Rand its subscales were found to be internally consistent and temporallystable over time.The scores of the subscales were also correlated withdepression scores,a correlation that supported the convergent validity ofthe subscales.Adolescents with high and low Chinese Beck DepressionInventory scores had significant differences in four out of five subscales ofthe C-SPSI-R(except Rational Problem-Solving).On the whole,the resultssupported that the C-SPSI-R is a reliable and valid instrument in the assess-ment of social problem solving in Chinese adolescents.©2004WileyPeriodicals,Inc.J Clin Psychol61:347–360,2005.Keywords:social problem-solving;Chinese;validation;measurementThe work described in this paper was financially supported by the Central Research Grant of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University(Project No.G-S838).Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to:Andrew M.H.Siu,Department of Rehabilita-tion Sciences,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hunghom,Hong Kong,P.R.C.;e-mail:rsandsiu@.hk. JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGY,Vol.61(3),347–360(2005)©2005Wiley Periodicals,Inc. Published online in Wiley InterScience().DOI:10.1002/jclp.20023348Journal of Clinical Psychology,March2005This study aims to develop a Chinese version of the Social Problem-Solving Inventory Revised(SPSI-R),which is one of the most widely used measures of social problem solving(D’Zurilla,Nezu,&Maydeu-Olivares,1996).This paper reports a validation study in which the content validity,reliability,discriminant validity,and factor structure of the Chinese version of this instrument were examined.The following review has sev-eral objectives.First,the authors of the current study review evidence of the effect of social problem solving on the reduction of life stress and clinical practice.Second,the authors review the theoretical model of social problem st,the authors review the psychometric properties of the SPSI-R.Social problem solving is the cognitive-affective-behavioral process by which peo-ple attempt to resolve problems they experience in real-life social environments(D’Zurilla, Nezu,&Maydeu-Olivares,1996).Real-life problem solving follows a social learning process and requires timely application of social skills.A number of studies have shown that social problem-solving ability itself,or together with social support,can reduce or minimize the impact of life stress on individuals(Dubow&Tisak,1989;Dubow,Tisak, Causey,&Hryshko,1991;D’Zurilla&Sheedy,1991;Goodman,Gravitt,&Kaslow, 1995).Social problem-solving abilities have also been found to moderate the relation between negative life stress and measures of distress,such as hopelessness(Bonner& Rich,1988),anxiety(Nezu,1986b),depressive symptoms(Nezu,1986c),as well as behavioral and academic adjustment(Kang&Lee,1992).Social problem-solving training is commonly used in remedial programs in the school context and in the treatment of a wide variety of psychiatric disorders.Social problem-solving training programs have been used to reduce the stress of urban living among young children(Cowen,Wyman,Work,&Iker,1995),to help children cope with their academic stress(Elias,Gara,Ubriaco,&Rothbaum,1986),and to treat aggression prob-lems in adolescent offenders and conduct-disordered adolescents(Guerra&Slaby,1990; Tisdelle&wrence,1988).Social problem-solving skills training has also been used in the treatment of anxiety disorders(Albano,Marten,Holt,&Heimberg,1995),depres-sion(Nezu,1986a;Nezu,Nezu,&Perri,1989),and suicide ideation(Clum,Yang,Feb-braro,&Canfield,1996;Lerner&Clum,1990;Marx,Williams,&Claridge,1992,1994). One of the most comprehensive models of social problem solving was presented by D’Zurilla(1986)who proposed that the effectiveness of the social problem-solving pro-cess is determined by three components:a general motivational component called prob-lem orientation,a set of rational problem-solving skills,and behavioral styles in problem solving.Problem orientation is a relatively stable cognitive-affective response set that is pri-marily based on past experience with life problems and problem solving and affects an individual’s motivation in problem solving.The cognitive subcomponent of problem ori-entation consists of a set of attributions,appraisals,expectancies,and commitments con-cerning problems and problem solving.This cognitive response set has a major influence on an individual’s sensitivity to problems,and his or her perception of a problem as challenging or threatening.The affective subcomponent of problem orientation is the group of emotions associated with problems and problem solving.Such emotions can be negative(like anxiety,anger,and depression),as well as positive(such as hope and enthusiasm),and can alter the effectiveness and willingness of a person to solve a problem.The rational problem-solving skills consist of four cognitive-skill components that are required in the problem-solving process:(a)problem definition and formulation, (b)goal setting,(c)generation of alternative solutions,and(d)solution implementation and verification.These specific problem-solving skills are essential in the process of creating an effective solution,and problem-solving performance focuses on the outcomeChinese Social Problem-Solving Inventory349 of this process.The final component is the behavioral style of problem solving,which is whether one tends to approach or avoid problem solving and whether one is impulsive or careful in problem solving.The avoidance style and impulsiveness/carelessness style represent two common behavioral tendencies in ineffective problem solving.The Social Problem-Solving Inventory(SPSI)was developed to assess the above-mentioned components of social problem solving.The first version of the SPSI had70items, and its reliability and validity were demonstrated in a series of validation studies using clin-ical and nonclinical samples(D’Zurilla,1986).Based on a detailed evaluation of the factor structure of the SPSI(Maydeu-Olivares&D’Zurilla,1995,1996),the70-item SPSI was revised to the52-item SPSI-R in1996.There are5subscales of the52-item SPSI-R.The first subscale is Positive Problem Orientation(PPO),which assesses a constructive problem-solving set with the following characteristics:general disposition to appraise problems as challenging,an optimism that problems can be solved,a belief in one’s own personal ability to solve problems success-fully,and a willingness to commit oneself to solving problems.The second subscale is Negative Problem Orientation(NPO),which assesses a dysfunctional or inhibitive cognitive-emotional set that involves the general tendency to view problems as signifi-cant threats,pessimism about one’s ability to solve problems,and nearly immediate frus-tration and upset when confronted with problems.The third subscale is Rational Problem Solving(RPS),which assesses the degree of rational,deliberate,systematic,and skilful application of effective problem-solving principles and strategies.The fourth subscale is Impulsivity/Carelessness Style(ICS),which is a deficient problem-solving pattern char-acterized by active problem-solving attempts that are narrow,impulsive,careless,hur-ried,and incomplete.The final subscale is Avoidance style(AS),which assesses another defective problem-solving pattern characterized by procrastination,passivity,inaction,or dependency.For each of the52items,the respondents were requested to choose an answer on a5-point Likert scale ranging from“Not at all true of me”to“Extremely true of me.”Half of the test items indicate a constructive orientation toward problem solving,while the other half indicate a dysfunctional or inhibitive orientation.The items are presented in a random order.D’Zurilla et al.(1996)conducted a series of validation studies on the SPSI-R,which demonstrated that it is a reliable and valid assessment instrument for research and clinical purposes.In four samples of different age groups,the SPSI-R consistently demonstrated high internal consistency(rϭ.69to.95),and adequate to high test–retest reliability(rϭ.68to .91).A study of the concurrent validity showed that the subscales of the SPSI-R had mod-erate to high correlation with the Problem-Solving Inventory(PSI)—a measure of an individual’s appraisal of his or her own problem-solving attitude and behavior(Heppner& Peterson,1982).Several studies have also provided evidence on the convergent validity of the English and Spanish versions of the SPSI-R(Al-Abdulla,1996;Calero,Luna-Serano, Vera-Villarroell,&Gonzalez-Trujillo,2001;D’Zurilla&Chang,1995;D’Zurilla&Maydeu-Olivares,1995).On the whole,these studies showed that four of the five SPSI-R subscales (except RPS)were significantly related to measures of distress(including stress,somatic symptoms,anxiety,depression,hopelessness,and suicidal thoughts)and well-being (including self-esteem,life satisfaction,extroversion,social adjustment,interpersonal com-petence,and social skills),and that they had modest relations with constructs like locus of control,optimism,and pessimism(Chang&D’Zurilla,1996).The above review shows that the social problem-solving model proposed by D’Zurilla (1986)provides an excellent conceptual framework for research and clinical practice in problem-solving therapy(D’Zurilla&Chang,1995;D’Zurilla&Maydeu-Olivares, 1995;D’Zurilla&Nezu,1990).The SPSI-R,which was developed to assess social350Journal of Clinical Psychology,March2005problem-solving abilities and deficits,is a valid and reliable instrument that can be used in research,clinical assessment,and efficacy studies.Nevertheless,despite the fact that social problem-solving training is widely used in counseling and psychotherapy in the West,there is a lack of standardized instruments for the assessment of social problem solving in Chinese populations.As such,the development and validation of a Chinese version of the SPSI-R is an essential initial step to set the stage for research on the application of the social problem-solving model in the psychosocial treatment and reha-bilitation of Chinese clients.This study attempted to develop and validate a Chinese version of the SPSI for use with Chinese adolescents.The SPSI-R was first translated to Chinese,and its cultural relevance,content validity,and reading level were reviewed by expert panels.The factor structure of the instrument,its convergent validity,and its reliability status(internal con-sistency and test–retest reliability)were then examined.The study of discriminant valid-ity was conducted by analyzing the differences in the Chinese version of the SPSI-R profile scores among participants with and without clinical depression.Finally,a short form of the instrument was developed using the findings of this study.MethodStudy ParticipantsA convenient sample of352participants was recruited from Secondary1to Secondary3 (Grades7to9)classes of three secondary schools in different geographic districts(Hong Kong Island,Kowloon,and the New Territories)of Hong Kong.The age of the partici-pants ranged from11to15years,with a mean of13.18years(SDϭ1.15).There were slightly more females(55.7%)than males(44.3%)in the sample.There were no signif-icant differences in age among the schools.One of the schools was a girls’school,whereas the other two were co-educational schools.This contributed to a higher proportion of females in the sample.The purpose of the study was explained to the school principals, teachers,and students,and informed consent was obtained from the schools involved. InstrumentsThe Chinese Version of the SPSI-R.The52-item SPSI-R(D’Zurilla et al.,1996)was translated to Chinese(in the Cantonese dialect),and then retranslated to English from Chinese by two professional translators.Discrepancies between the English and Chinese versions were evaluated and gradually reduced through an iterative review process.Three experienced Chinese and English language teachers were then invited to evaluate the equivalence in meaning between the English and Chinese versions,as well as the reading level of the instruments.The aims of this exercise were to ensure equivalence in meaning between the translated instrument and the original instrument and to ensure that the test items were readable by most junior secondary-school students.Another five-member expert panel evaluated the content validity and cultural rele-vance of the Chinese Social Problem-Solving Inventory-Revised(C-SPSI-R).The panel consisted of five members who fulfilled at least two of the following criteria:(a)The member had published articles in academic journals related to adolescent mental health or parent-adolescent relationships;(b)The member had more than five years of experi-ence in psychological or mental health assessment;and(c)The member had more than five years of experience providing social work,counseling,or psychotherapy services to adolescents and families.Chinese Social Problem-Solving Inventory351 In their review of the face validity of the translated measure,the experts were requested to complete a self-administered questionnaire that evaluated the content relevance and representativeness of the test items.The questionnaire had three sections.In the first section,the experts were requested to rate the relevance of each item to their respective subscales using a Likert scale.In the second section,the experts were requested to give written comments on how far the items could represent the content domain of each sub-scale,as well as how far the five content domains could represent the construct of social problem solving.The experts indicated how far each item was relevant to the content domain,and they were requested to write down further comments about items that were considered not relevant.In the third section of the questionnaire open-ended questions were used to examine how far the content domain was adequately represented by the items as a whole and whether certain content areas were overrepresented,under-represented,or missing from the instrument.Follow-up meetings with members of the expert panel were held to discuss issues related to the relevance of the items in the different domains.The expert panel generally agreed that the five domains were satisfactory in repre-senting the construct of social problem solving.However,regarding the cultural rele-vance of the test items,the experts commented that it might not be most appropriate to put Item10and Item42in the AS subscale.However,to permit cross-cultural compar-ison,these two items were retained in the final version of the translated scale.The cultural relevance of these two items is further explored in the discussion section of this article.To develop a short form of the C-SPSI-R,the authors of the current study set up several criteria to select suitable items.First,the items chosen for the short form should be given an above-average relevance rating in the content review by the expert panel. Second,the authors agreed to select items that had relatively high factor loadings.Third, the items should have a relatively high item-total correlation in the study of internal consistency.The authors prioritized the items by applying these three criteria in the selec-tion of items for the short form.The Chinese Beck Depression Inventory(C-BDI).Translated from the Beck Depres-sion Inventory,the Chinese Beck Depression Inventory(C-BDI)is a21-item self-report measure of the degree of depressive symptoms that is widely used for clinical and research purposes in Chinese populations(Chan&Tsoi,1984).The participants were required to rate the intensity of21symptoms on a4-point scale,which had a total score of63.Based on a sample of2,150adolescents,Shek(1990,1991)showed that the C-BDI has two stable factors that demonstrate high internal consistency(␣ϭ.86)and split-half reliabil-ity(rϭ.77).Sex and age-specific norms were generated for clinical and research pur-poses in the adolescent group.ProceduresAfter the authors of the present study obtained the consent of the three schools,data were collected from classes selected randomly in each school.The students participated in the study on a voluntary basis.The researcher or assistant was present throughout the test administration process.All the352research participants from the three schools com-pleted the C-SPSI-R.Two hundred of the352participants from two schools completed both the C-SPSI-R and the C-BDI.The third school agreed to complete the C-SPSI-R only.For the study of test–retest reliability,76participants from one of the three schools completed the C-SPSI-R a second time two weeks after the first administration.352Journal of Clinical Psychology,March2005ResultsFactor Structure of the C-SPSI-RD’Zurilla and associates’(D’Zurilla et al.,1996;Maydeu-Olivares,&D’Zurilla,1995, 1996)factor analytic procedures(unweighted least squares and oblique rotation)were used in this study to compare the factor analysis results with those of their previous studies of the SPSI-R In addition,a conservative approach was used to determine the number of factors where various hypothesized factor solutions were attempted and com-pared before deciding on the number of factors in the instrument.An examination of the change of eigenvalues and the scree plot showed that there was very little increase in the percentage of variance explained after the fifth factor was extracted.Therefore,solutions of two,three,four,and five factors were attempted.Detailed examination of these possible factor models showed that the five-factor model was con-sidered most effective in reducing the data.Although the three-factor model also appeared to be a parsimonious solution,and it generated three meaningful factors of Rational Problem Solving,Negative Problem Orientation,and Impulsiveness/Carelessness Style, there was a significant increase in the amount of variance explained(11%more)when the number of factors increased from3to5.In addition,the grouping of items in the five-factor model of the C-SPSI-R was largely consistent with the five-factor solution of the SPSI-R.The rotated factor solution of the5-factor model is shown in Table1.The first factor had19items,which included17items out of the20items of the RPS subscale,and2 items of the PPO subscale,explaining9.08%of the variance.Subjects who obtained high scores in this factor had a strong tendency to apply rational problem-solving skills.This factor could be given the label of Rational Problem Solving.The second factor had eight items,explaining7.60%of the variance.It included5out of7items of the AS subscale, 2items of the ICS subscale,and1item of the NPO subscale.As this factor mainly assessed negative problem-solving style related to avoidance,it was labeled Avoidance Style.Subjects who had a high score on this factor were more likely to use avoidance tactics to handle problems.The third factor included9out of10items of the NPO subscale,2items of the ICS subscale,and1item of the AS subscale.This factor mainly measured NPO,explaining 6.84%of the variance.The fourth factor had7items,which included3items of the PPO subscale,3items of the RPS subscale,and1item of the AS subscale,explaining6.03% of the variance.The items from the PPO and RPS subscales largely refer to a positive orientation or motivation towards problem solving.On the whole,this factor was given the label of Positive Problem Orientation.The fifth factor included6out of10items of the ICS subscale of the English version of the SPSI-R,explaining4.84%of the variance, and was labeled Impulsiveness/Carelessness Style.Consistent with the theoretical pre-diction and previous findings(D’Zurilla et al.,1996),the results showed that the different subscales were significantly correlated among themselves(see Table2).Reliability of the C-SPSI-R and Its SubscalesThe overall internal consistency of the52-item C-SPSI-R was very good(Cronbach’s␣ϭ.93).Cronbach’s alpha for the5subscales varied from.64to.89(.89for RPS,.89for AS, .88for NPO,.64for PPO,and.79for ICS).The test–retest reliability for the5subscales as indicated by Pearson’s r varied from.61to.88(.88for RPS,.81for AS,.86for NPO, .61for PPO,and.71for ICS).Chinese Social Problem-Solving Inventory353 Table1Five-Factor Model for the Full Form of the C-SPSI-RFactor bItem a12345 40(RPS):weigh and compare the consequences of each option.61.01Ϫ.02.28.05 46(RPS):use a systematic method for comparing alternatives.57Ϫ.02.05.12Ϫ.14 26(RPS):examine feelings and see how they may become better.54Ϫ.12Ϫ.08.18Ϫ.07 29(RPS):get facts about the problem.53.03.03.27Ϫ.06 47(RPS):keep in mind the goal.53.07Ϫ.23.14Ϫ.16 49(RPS):try to get more specific and concrete information.50Ϫ.02.00.12Ϫ.08 25(RPS):analyze what went right and wrong.50Ϫ.18Ϫ.11.34.07 44(RPS):examine factors contributing to problems.49Ϫ.14.05.24Ϫ.14 37(RPS):evaluate if the situation has changed for the better.48Ϫ.18Ϫ.07.40Ϫ.04 43(RPS):consider the effects of options on my feelings.47.03Ϫ.23.19Ϫ.02 48(RPS):approach problems from many angles.47.10Ϫ.12.22Ϫ.04 18(RPS):predict positive and negative effects of options.46Ϫ.09Ϫ.01.21.08 24(RPS):consider both immediate and long-term consequences.44Ϫ.05Ϫ.15.37.06 39(RPS):think of as many options as possible.44.16Ϫ.15.41Ϫ.08 27(RPS):practice solutions to increase chance of success.43Ϫ.15.06.27Ϫ.05 35(RPS):find out what was wrong with the outcome and try again.42.10Ϫ.05.37Ϫ.17 33(RPS):set a specific goal.40.10Ϫ.21.37.03 38(PPO):see problem as a challenge or opportunity.40.01.26.32Ϫ.22 28(PPO):believe I can solve a problem if I try hard enough.38Ϫ.01.05.24Ϫ.25 31(AS):spend more time avoiding solving problems.02.58.23.06.31 23(AS):avoid thinking about problemsϪ.05.56.17.18.30 14(AS):put off trying to solve problems as long as possible.06.54.26.05.22 30(AS):put off solving problems until it’s too lateϪ.02.53.16.08.33 16(AS):go out of my way to avoid dealing with problems.03.52.26Ϫ.05.21 36(NPO):hate to solve problems in lifeϪ.11.51.17.07.13 52(ICS):too impulsive in making decisions.02.44.26.02.37 51(ICS):do not take time to examine why solution did not workϪ.01.39.20Ϫ.08.36 6(NPO):nervous and unsure when making important decisionsϪ.03.21.63.06.11 2(NPO):feel afraid when I have problem to solveϪ.05.23.58.12.18 12(NPO):feel frustrated if first attempt to solve problem failsϪ.01.29.58Ϫ.02.17 17(NPO):a difficult problem makes me upsetϪ.03.34.55Ϫ.10Ϫ.05 41(NPO):become depressed and immobilizedϪ.06.34.46Ϫ.05.20 50(NPO):get discouraged and depressed when first effort failsϪ.01.42.45Ϫ.11.12 32(NPO):get so upset that I cannot think clearlyϪ.06.42.44Ϫ.02.19 13(NPO):doubt if I can solve difficult problem on my ownϪ.11.29.42.13.23 1(NPO):worrying about problems instead of solving them.05.35.41.05.24 3(ICS):not evaluate all options carefully.05.11.38.03.30 42(AS):go to someone else for help solving itϪ.13Ϫ.08.32Ϫ.24.04 22(ICS):cannot come up with many possible solutionsϪ.10.21.29.01.22 9(PPO):believe a problem can be solved.01.17.10.62Ϫ.04 10(AS):wait to see if a problem will resolve itselfϪ.02.05.04Ϫ.50Ϫ.01 11(RPS):analyze the situation and identify obstacles.25Ϫ.07Ϫ.03.44Ϫ.04 19(PPO):deal with problems as soon as possible.28.16.06.44Ϫ.18 7(PPO):do not give up solving problems when first attempt fails.30.10.16.39Ϫ.18 5(RPS):think of different solutions.30Ϫ.03Ϫ.06.39.05 20(RPS):try to think of creative or original solutions.29Ϫ.04.22.37Ϫ.18 21(ICS):go with first good idea that comes to mindϪ.10.11.02.02.64 8(ICS):act on the first idea that comes to mind.01.17.11Ϫ.11.52 34(ICS):do not take time to consider pros and cons of optionsϪ.02.36.15Ϫ.02.46 45(ICS):go with my“gut feeling”without thinking about consequencesϪ.04.31.10Ϫ.17.37 15(ICS):do not take time to evaluate all results carefullyϪ.03.31.19Ϫ.05.35 4(ICS):fail to consider the effect of options on others.04.15.21Ϫ.08.23 Variance Explained9.087.60 6.84 6.03 4.84Note.The highest loading among the factors for an item is underlined.a The factor to which the item belongs in the original SPSI-R is shown in brackets,where PPOϭPositive Problem Orientation, RPSϭRational Problem Solving,NPOϭNegative Problem Orientation,ASϭAvoidance Style,and ICSϭImpulsiveness/ Carelessness Style.b Factor1ϭRational Problem Solving,Factor2ϭAvoidance Style,Factor3ϭNegative Problem Orientation,Factor4ϭPositive Problem Orientation,and Factor5ϭImpulsiveness/Carelessness Style.Relation between the C-SPSI-R Subscales and DepressionTo explore the relation between social problem solving and depression,200participants completed the C-BDI and the C-SPSI-R concurrently.The results showed that the C-BDI scores were significantly correlated with 4subscales of the C-SPSI-R (see Table 3).Whereas the negative subscales of ICS,AS,and NPO had a significant positive correla-tion with depression,the PPO subscale had a significant negative correlation with depres-sion.On the other hand,there was no significant relation between the RPS subscale and depression.These findings replicated those reported by D’Zurilla,Nezu,and Maydeu-Olivares (1996).Table 2Correlation Coefficients Among the Five Subscales of the C-SPSI-RSubscaleNPO ICS AS RPS Full Form (N ϭ352)PPOϪ.15*Ϫ.17*Ϫ.14*.64*NPO.69*.79*Ϫ.17*ICS.78*Ϫ.23*AS.22*Short Form (N ϭ352)PPO.09ns Ϫ.15*Ϫ.13*.47*NPOϪ.52*.65*Ϫ.08ns ICS.71*Ϫ.19*AS Ϫ.15*Note .AS ϭAvoidance Style,NPO ϭNegative Problem Orientation,RPS ϭRationalProblem Solving,ICS ϭImpulsiveness /Carelessness Style,and PPO ϭPositive ProblemOrientation.A two-tailed multistage Bonferroni procedure was used to obtain the data.pFW is based on the familywise Type 1error rate;pT is based on the Type 1error rate pertest.*pFW Ͻ.05;pT Ͻ.025in the full form and short form.Table 3Correlation Coefficients on the Relationships Between the C-BDIScores and the C-SPSI-R Subscale ScoresC-SPSI-RSubscalesFull Form With C-BDI (N ϭ200)Short Form With C-BDI (N ϭ200)Findings Based on the Full Form a PPOϪ.32*Ϫ.31*Ϫ.25NPO.69*.66*.49b IC.31*.23*.28b AS.68*.67*.39b RPS Ϫ.09ns Ϫ.05ns Ϫ.12nsNote .A two-tailed multistage Bonferroni procedure was used to obtain the data.pFW isbased on the familywise Type 1error rate;pT is based on the Type 1error rate per test.*pFW Ͻ.01;pT Ͻ.002in both the full form and short form.ns ϭnon-significant.a Information from the SPSI-R manual (D’Zurilla,Nezu,&Maydeu-Olivares,1996)b p Ͻ.05per test (D’Zurilla,Nezu,&Maydeu-Olivares,1996)354Journal of Clinical Psychology,March 2005Chinese Social Problem-Solving Inventory355 Discriminant ValidityBased on the sensitivity study of the BDI by Rudd and Rajab(1995),a cut-off score of18 in the C-BDI was used to divide the200participants into groups with and without clinical depression.The C-SPSI-R subscale scores of the2groups were compared,and a signif-icant difference between the C-SPSI-R profiles of the2groups was found(Wilk’sϭ370.46,pϽ.001).The results showed that the depressed group(nϭ64)had lower PPO (tϭ2.92,pϽ.01),and higher NPO(tϭ8.43,pϽ.001),AS(tϭ8.98,pϽ.001),and ICS(tϭ3.45,pϽ.01)scores than the nondepressed group(Table5).There was,how-ever,no difference in mean RPS scores between the two groups.Construction of a Short Form C-SPSI-RBecause the original full form was too long to be used in a survey context,a short form of the C-SPSI was developed for more efficient administration with younger adolescents. Based on the findings of the full form(including its content validity,factorial validity, concurrent validity,and reliability),25items were eventually selected to form the short form.Factor analysis of the25items in the short form was conducted using the same extraction and rotation methods as used for the52-item full version.A5-factor solution was obtained that explained38.16%of the total variance(compared with34.70%in the full form).The factor solution of the short form is presented in Table4.The subscales based on the full form were found to be highly correlated with the corresponding sub-scales in the short form:rϭ1.00,pϽ.001for PPO;rϭ.89,pϽ.001for RPS;rϭ.93, pϽ.001for NPO;rϭ.96,pϽ.001for ICS;rϭ.97,pϽ.001for AS.As to the reliability of the subscales of the short form,internal consistency analyses showed that the related measures were internally consistent(␣ϭ.88for AS,.80for NPO, .73for RPS,.78for ICS,and.65for PPO)and temporally stable(test–retest reliability coefficientϭ.73for AS,.79for NPO,.71for RPS,.69for ICS,and.48for PPO).Except for two correlation coefficients,the correlation coefficients among the subscales were significant(Table2).As with the full form,the subscales of the C-SPSI-R,except RPR, were significantly correlated with the C-BDI scores(Table3).DiscussionThe expert panels generally agreed that the C-SPSI-R had good content validity and that the Chinese translation was comprehensible to early adolescents.In addition,the5sub-scales were seen as representative of the construct of social problem solving,and50of the52items were seen as closely related to the5content domains of social problem solving.However,the experts expressed reservations on the cultural relevance of Item10 and Item42,which are items in the AS subscale of the SPSI-R.Conceptually speaking, whereas“wait if a problem will resolve itself”(Item10)indicates inactivity or delay in problem solving in Western culture,“nonaction”strategies could be regarded as positive in Chinese culture.In fact,the Chinese philosophy of“nonaction”(the concept of wu wei in Taoist thought)suggests that the world is ever-changing no matter whether we act or do not act(Chan,1963;Young,1983).Hwang(1977)also suggests that adopting the philosophy of doing nothing may be a form of positive coping among Chinese people. Empirically speaking,whereas this item loaded negatively on the PPO factor rather than on the AS factor,the negative loading still suggests that inactivity or delay in problem solving is negatively related to positive problem-solving orientation.This finding may。
构建人与自然和谐共生的地球家园英文作文
构建人与自然和谐共生的地球家园英文作文The intricate tapestry of life on Earth is woven with an undeniable truth: humanity and nature are inextricably intertwined. For millennia, we have reliedon the planet's bounty for sustenance, shelter, and inspiration, yet our actions have often strained this delicate balance. The consequences of environmental degradation, from climate change to biodiversity loss, reverberate through every facet of our existence. Building a future where humans and nature harmoniously coexist is no longer a philosophical ideal, but an urgent imperative for our collective survival. A fundamental shift in our relationship with nature begins with acknowledging its intrinsic value, beyond its utilitarian benefits. The natural world is not merely a resource to be exploited, but a complex web of interconnected ecosystems that sustain life in all its forms. Respecting this interconnectedness requires embracing a holistic perspective, recognizing that actions in one sphere can have far-reaching consequences in others. Deforestation, for instance, not only destroys habitats and contributes to climate change butalso disrupts water cycles, jeopardizing food security and exacerbating the riskof natural disasters. Transforming our relationship with nature necessitates a paradigm shift in our economic models. The dominant paradigm of infinite growth on a finite planet is inherently unsustainable, fueling a relentless pursuit of resource extraction and consumption that undermines ecological integrity. Embracing a circular economy, where resources are used efficiently, waste is minimized, and materials are continuously cycled back into the system, offers a viable alternative. Such a model prioritizes long-term sustainability over short-term profits, recognizing that environmental health underpins economic prosperity. Empowering individuals to become responsible stewards of the environment is paramount in building a sustainable future. Environmental education, from an early age, can foster an understanding of ecological principles and instill a sense of responsibility towards nature. Encouraging citizens to engage in sustainable practices, such as reducing their ecological footprint, conserving water and energy, and adopting eco-friendly consumption habits, can create a ripple effect, transforming individual actions into collective impact. Technological innovation plays a pivotal role in mitigating environmental challenges and fostering aharmonious relationship with nature. Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, offer cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting energy independence. Sustainable agricultural practices, such as precision farming and organic agriculture, minimize environmental impacts while ensuring food security. Nature-based solutions, like reforestation and wetland restoration, harness the power of natural processes to mitigate climate change, enhance biodiversity, and protect communities from natural disasters. Building a harmonious future necessitates international cooperation and a shared commitment to environmental stewardship. Global challenges require global solutions, as environmental problems transcend national borders. International agreements, such as the Paris Agreement on climate change, provide a framework for collective action, setting targets for emissions reductions and promoting sustainable development. Sharing knowledge, technology, and best practices can accelerate progress towards a sustainable future, fostering a spirit of solidarity in addressing shared environmental challenges. The path towards a harmonious coexistence with nature is a multifaceted journey requiring a fundamental shift in our values, economic models, and technological approaches. Embracing ecological principles, fostering environmental stewardship, and harnessing the power of innovation are essential steps in this transformative process. The task is daunting, yet the stakes are too high to ignore. The future of humanity hinges on our ability to forge a new relationship with nature, one marked by respect, responsibility, and a shared commitment to building a sustainable and thriving planet for generations to come.。
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计量经济学导论-ch18
Advanced Time Series Topics
General definition of cointegration
Two I(1)-time series
are said to be cointegrated if there
exists a stable relationship between them in the sense that
Cointegration Fortunately, regressions with I(1)-variables are not always spurious If there is a stable relationship between time series that, individually, display unit root behavior, these time series are called „co-integrated“
Advanced Time Series Topics
Critical values for cointegration test
Even more negative than in Dickey-Fuller distribution
The cointegration relationship may include a time trend If the two series have differential time trends (=drifts in this case), the deviation between them may still be I(0) but with a linear time trend In this case one should include a time trend in the first stage regres-sion but one has to use different critical values when testing residuals
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数学在交通中的应用——道路畅通无阻作者1，作者2，作者2, 3，作者3（1.机构，地区邮编；2.机构，地区邮编；3.机构，地区邮编）【摘要】：我认为Webx.x是人们为了区别不同时代Web的发展而使用的，而这些概念也是经过归纳出来的结果。
抓住对方向，如Wikipedia中所提到的朝向互动及社会网络的方向发展，不论应用何种技术。
智能交通控制系统是缓解城市交通拥堵、减少交通事故和降低汽车尾气排放污染等交通问题的有效方法之一。
而短时交通流预测通过对城市路网的交通状态数据进行采集与分析，能够对路网短时期内的交通流状态进行估计，从而为智能交通控制系统提供控制策略的依据，它是智能交通控制的重要决策前提之一。
本文以面向城市交通控制的短时交通流预测方法研究为题，在城市交通控制系统对交通流预测的需求分析基础上，对城市路网中多条路段交通流状态之间的相关性进行讨论，将相关性较大的交通流分为一组对城市的大规模路网进行划分，之后在确定的小范围内进行短时交通流预测理论和方法的研究。
本文首先阐述面向城市交通控制的短时交通流预测的研究背景与意义，介绍主要城市交通控制系统的概况和其预测方法。
并介绍城市交通控制及交通流的基本概念与理论，对交通流的主要特性进行分析。
其次，使用多元统计分析中的多维标度法对城市路网多条交通流之间的相关性进行分析，对相关性较大的交通流进行分组，确定短时交通流预测的范围。
并根据前人的预测算法设计了一种基于城市路网交通流相关性的短时交通流预测模型，其中加入城市交通拥塞的检测与其对交通流影响的研究。
最后在开源仿真平台进行仿真，实验结果表明此预测模型能够基本满足城市交通控制对短时交通流预测的实时性和准确性的要求。
【关键词】：短时交通流预测；城市交通控制系统；路网划分；多维标度法【中图分类号】：H31【文献标识码】：A（B，C，D，E）TitleAuthor(Adress)【Abstract】：Intelligent transportation system(tTS)is considered as one of the effective methods torelieve the urban仃a伍C problems such traffic congestion,accidents and air pollutioncaused by motor vehicle exhausts．By gathering and analysising the real-time data of urbanroad network，shoft．time Irafile flow forcasting could estimate the state of traffic flow for afew minutes in future and provide support to intelligent transportationcontrol，SO it is one ofthe important premise for ITS．Research on short—time仃amc flow forecasting for urbanIraf!fic control iS discussed in this dissertation，based on the requirement analysising of urbantraffic control system．the relativity between sevgral traf：fic flows in urban road network isdiscussed。
金融学期刊(JF)创刊以来50篇最经典论文
金融学期刊（JF）创刊以来50篇最经典论文1) Portfolio Selection证券组合选择Harry Markowitz Volume 7, Issue 1March 19522) Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk资本资产价格：风险条件下的市场均衡理论William F. SharpeVolume 19, Issue 3September 19643) Efficient Capital Markets: Review Of Theory And Empirical Work有效市场：理论与经验研究的评论Eugene F. FamaVolume 25, Issue 2May 19704) The Cross-Section Of Expected Stock Returns股票预期收益的横截面（分析）Eugene F. Fama, Kenneth R. FrenchVolume 47, Issue 2June 19925) Counterspeculation, Auctions, And Competitive Sealed Tenders反投机、拍卖和竞争性密封投标William VickreyVolume 16, Issue 1March 19616) A Survey Of Corporate Governance关于公司治理的调查Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. VishnyVolume 52, Issue 2June 19977) Legal Determinants Of External Finance外部融资的法律层面决定因素Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. VishnyVolume 52, Issue 3July 19978) Corporate Ownership Around The World世界各地的企业所有权Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes, Andrei ShleiferVolume 54, Issue 2April 19999) On the Pricing Of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure Of Interest Rates 企业债务的定价：利率的风险结构Robert C. MertonVolume 29, Issue 2May 197410) Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy财务比率，判别分析和企业破产预测Edward I. AltmanVolume 23, Issue 4September 196811) The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, And The Failure Of Internal Control-Systems近代工业革命，退出，和内部控制系统的失灵Michael C. JensenVolume 48, Issue 3July 199312) On Persistence In Mutual Fund Performance共同基金绩效的持久性Mark M. CarhartVolume 52, Issue 1March 199713) On The Relation Between The Expected Value And The Volatility Of The Nominal期望值和名义股票超额回报波动性的关系Lawrence R. Glosten, Ravi Jagannathan, David E. RunkleVolume 48, Issue 5December 199314) Returns To Buying Winners And Selling Losers: Implications For Stock Market Efficiency购买赢家和卖掉输家的回报：对股市效率的启示Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Sheridan TitmanVolume 48, Issue 1March 199315) Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, And Financial Intermediation信息不对称、金融结构和金融中介Hayne E. Leland, David H. PyleVolume 32, Issue 2May 197716) The Pricing Of Options On Assets With Stochastic Volatilities具有随机波动性资产期权定价John Hull, Alan WhiteVolume 42, Issue 2June 198717) Efficient Capital Markets: II有效资本市场IIEugene F. FamaVolume 46, Issue 5December 199118) Does The Stock Market Overreact?股市反应过度了吗？Werner F. M. De Bondt, Richard ThalerVolume 40, Issue 3July 198519) Multifactor Explanations Of Asset Pricing Anomalies对资产定价异常现象的多因素解释Eugene F. Fama, Kenneth R. FrenchVolume 51, Issue 1March 199620) The Capital Structure Puzzle资本结构之谜Stewart C. MyersVolume 39, Issue 3July 198421) The Performance Of Mutual Funds In Period 1945-1964共同基金在1945年-1964年的绩效Michael C. JensenVolume 23, Issue 2May 196822) Debt And Taxes负债和税收Merton H. MillerVolume 32, Issue 2May 197723) What Do We Know About Capital Structure? Some Evidence From International Data我们对资本结构了解多少呢？来自国际数据的一些证据Raghuram G. Rajan, Luigi ZingalesDecember 199524) The Benefits Of Lending Relationships: Evidence From Small Business Data借贷关系的好处：来自小企业数据的证据Mitchell A. Petersen, Raghuram G. RajanVolume 49, Issue 1March 199425) Measuring And Testing The Impact Of News On Volatility衡量和检验新闻对波动性的影响Robert F. Engle, Victor K. NgVolume 48, Issue 5December 199326) Investor Psychology And Security Market Under- And Overreactions投资者心理和证券市场的过度反应/反应迟钝Kent Daniel, David Hirshleifer, Avanidhar SubrahmanyamVolume 53, Issue 6December 199827) Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, And Risk逆向投资、外推法和风险Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. VishnyVolume 49, Issue 5December 199428) A Simple Model Of Capital Market Equilibrium With Incomplete Information 一个简单的信息不完全的资本市场均衡模型Robert C. MertonVolume 42, Issue 3July 198729) Insiders And Outsiders: The Choice Between Informed And Arms-Length DebtRaghuram G. RajanSeptember 199230) Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time? 为什么随着时间推移股市波动性会发生变化？G. William SchwertVolume 44, Issue 5September 198931) The Determinants Of Capital Structure Choice资本结构决策的决定因素Sheridan Titman, Roberto WesselsVolume 43, Issue 1March 198832) Inferring Trade Direction From Intraday Data从当日数据推断交易方向Charles M.C. Lee, Mark J. ReadyVolume 46, Issue 2June 199133) The New Issues Puzzle新股发行之谜Tim Loughran, Jay R. RitterVolume 50, Issue 1March 199534) The Limits Of Arbitrage套利限制Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. VishnyVolume 52, Issue 1March 199735) Noise噪声Fischer BlackVolume 41, Issue 3July 198636) Investor Protection And Corporate Valuation投资者保护和公司估值Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny Volume 57. Issue 3June 200237) The Theory Of Capital Structure资本结构理论Milton Harris, Artur RavivVolume 46, Issue 1March 199138) The Long-Run Performance Of Initial Public Offerings首次公开发行股票的长期绩效Jay R. RitterVolume 46, Issue 1March 199139) Initial Public Offerings And Underwriter Reputation首次公开发行和承销商商誉Richard Carter, Steven ManasterVolume 45, Issue 4September 199040) Dividend Policy Under Asymmetric Information信息不对称下的股利政策Merton H. Miller, Kevin RockVolume 40, Issue 4September 198541) A Simple Implicit Measure Of The Effective Bid-Ask Spread In An Efficient Market买卖价差(Bid-Ask Spread)有效市场下有效买卖差价的简单内隐测量Richard RollSeptember 198442) Empirical Performance Of Alternative Option Pricing Models备选的期权定价模型的实证绩效Gurdip Bakshi, Charles Cao, Zhiwu ChenVolume 52, Issue 5December 199743) Compensation And Incentives: Practice vs. Theory薪酬和激励：实践和理论George P. Baker, Michael C. Jensen, Kevin J. MurphyVolume 43, Issue 3July 198844) Are Investors Reluctant To Realize Their Losses?投资者不愿意意识到他们的损失？Terrance OdeanVolume 53, Issue 5October 199845) Size And Book-To-Market Factors In Earnings And Returns盈余和收益的规模和账面-市值因素Eugene F. Fama, Kenneth R. FrenchVolume 50, Issue 1March 199546) Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification证券价格、风险和来自多元化的最大收益John LintnerVolume 20, Issue 4December 196547) An Empirical Comparison Of Alternative Models Of The Short-Term Interest-Rate对短期利率备选模型的实证比较K. C. Chan, G. Andrew Karolyi, Francis A. Longstaff, Anthony B. SandersJuly 199248) Risk Management Coordinating Corporate Investment And Financing Policies风险管理协调企业投融资政策Kenneth A. Froot, David S. Scharfstein, Jeremy C. SteinVolume 48, Issue 5December 199349) Disentangling The Incentive And Entrenchment Effects Of Large Shareholdings解析大股东激励和壕沟防御效应Stijn Claessens, Simeon Djankov, Joseph P. H. Fan, Larry H. P. Lang Volume 57, Issue 6December 200250) Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects Of Bond Indenture Provisions 公司证券估值：债券契约条款的一些作用Fischer Black, John C. CoxVolume 31, Issue 2May 1976。
文学术语
1. Satire: A mode of writing that exposes the failings of individuals, institutions, or societies to ridicule and scorn. Satire is often an incidental element in literary works that may not be wholly satirical, especially in comedy. Its tone may vary from tolerant amusement, as in the verse satires of t verse satires of the Roman soft Horace, to bitter indignation, as in the verse of Juvenal and the prose of Jonathan Swift. Various forms of literature may be satirical, from the plays of Ben Johnson or of Mollere and Voltaire. The models of Roman satire, especially the verse satire of Harace and Juvenal, inspired some important imitations by Boileau, Pope, and Johnson in the greatest period of satire--the 17th and 18th centuries. In the classical tradition, an important form is "formal" or "direct" satire, in which writer directly addresses the reader with satiric comment. The alternative form of "indirect" satire usually found in plays and novels allows us to draw our own conclusions from the actions of the characters.2. Short Story: A fictional prose take of no specified length,but too short to be published as a volume on its own.A short story will normally concentrate on a single event with only one or two characters,more economically than a novel's sustained exploration of social background.There are similar fictional forms of greater antiquity,but the short story,as we know it,flourished in the magazines of the19th and early 20th centuries,especially in the USA,which has a particularly strong tradition.3.Stanza: A group of verse lines forming a section of a poem and sharing the same structure as all or some of the other sections of the same poems,in terms of the lengths of its lines,its meter,and usually its rhyme scheme.In printed poems,stanzas are separated by spaces.4. Subtext:Any meaning or set of meanings which is implied rather than explicitly stated in a literary work,especially in a play.In modern plays such as those of Harold Pinter,the meaning of the action is sometimes suggested in terms of their hidden subtext.5. Tell story/tall tale: A Humorously exaggerated story of impossible feats.Several tall stories attributed to the German Baron Munchhausen appeared in the 1780s,but the form flourished in the oral tradition of the American frontier in the 19th century,several tall takes being published by Mark Twain,George Washington Harris and others.6.Verse:The term is usually more neutral than poetry,indicating that the technical requirements of rhythm and meter are present,while poetic merit may or may not be.It is almost always reserved for metrical compositions,the looser non-metrical category of free verse being a special case.7.Rhythm:The arrangement of stressed and unstressed syllables into apattern.Different kinds of rhythm are made by different alterations of stressed syllables with unstressed ones.Although prose also has rhythm,it is more apparent,regular and essential in poetry.Rhythm often gives a poem a certain musical quality.8. Foot:A rhythmic unit,a specific combination of stressed and unstressed syllables,is called a foot.The common kinds of feet in English poetry aregamb,trochee,anapest,dactyl and spondee.9Meter:Having been defined as” rhythm reduced to law”, meter is a regular pattern of stressed and unstressed syllables. The word meter means measure. Since the unit of measure in poetry is the foot, the meter of a verse line is determined by the number of feet it contains.Therefore, according to the number of feet, a line is called: monometer,diameter,trimester,tetrameter,pentameter,hexameter,septameter, octameter,or nonameter.10 Sonnet: As one of the most popular of traditional poetic forms, the sonnet is a lyric poem of 14lines written in iambic pentameter, i.e. a meter with five accents in each line. Sonnets may vary in structure and rhyme scheme, but they usually express a single theme or idea. Generally speaking, there are two types of sonnets: the Petrarchan or Italian sonnet and the Shakespearean or English sonnet.11 Lyric: As old as Greek poetry, the lyric is, by definition, a short personal poem. But its most essential characteristic is musicality, which is achieved by traditional techniques of meter, rhyme, and stanzaic patterning.12Irony: Irony always involves a contrast, a disparity between the expected and the actual, when the irony implies a discrepancy13Plot: Plot is the first and most obvious quality of a story. Plot is what happens in a story. Unlike life, which is random and unpredictable, the story will usually be shared by a again of events, one leading inevitably to another in a line of rising action to a moment of crisis-the climax.14Nonfiction: Nonfiction refers to any prose narrative that tells about things an they actually happen or that presents factual information about something. Autobiography and biography are among the major forms of nonfiction. The purpose of this kind writing is to give a presumably accurate accounting of a person's life. Essays are also common forms of nonfiction. They are generally personal observations on some subjects. Other kinds of nonfiction include the stories, editorials, and letters to the editor found in newspapers, as well as diaries, journals, and travel literature.15Narration: Like description, narration is a part of conversation and witting. Narration is the major technique used in expository witting, such as autobiography. Successful narration must grow out of good observation, to-the-point selection from observation, and clear arrangement of details in logical sequence, which is usually chronological. Narration gives an exact picture of things as they occur.16Imagery: Imagery is the representation in poetry of sensory experiences; in other words, imagery is a device by which poets appeal to our senses. Although we usually think with word. Many of our thought come to uh as pictures or imagined sensations in our mind. Such imagined pictures or sensations are called images. Most images tend to be visual in nature, but they may also suggest the way things sound, smell, taste, or feel. In order to make the invisible, the intangible, and the abstract become the visible, the tangible and the concrete in their poetry, poets carefully choose words that create the most vivid images. In this way poets can share their thoughts and experience with readers by creating a world that they know and share.17Simile and metaphor: similes and metaphors both are comparisons made between two unlike things.A simile makes the comparison through the use of connecting words such as like,as,than,or resembles.The comparison must be made between two essentially dissimilar things.Like a simile,a metaphor also points out a resemblance between two unlike things with the intent of giving added meaning to one of them.Unlike a simile,a metaphor does not use a bondating word to state acomparison but identifies the two things as one. They are used in virtually all forms of literature.They help make things more vivid,true-to-life and easy to understand.18Character: In appreciating a short story,characters are an indispensable element.Characters are the persons presented in a dramatic or narrative work.In order to have a full understanding of a character's moral,dispositional and emotional qualities,the recede needs to interpret what they say and what they do.The readers should also consider the characters' temperament,desires and moral nature for their speech and action.19Surrealism: Surrealism is a literary and art movement influenced by Fretficogsm,dedicated to expressing the imagination as revealed in dreams,free of the conscious control of reason and convention.Founded in Paris by Andre Breton with his Manifesto of Surrealism,it can be traced back to Rimbaud,and Baudelaire.In literature,surrealism was confined almost exclusively to France,and was based on the associations and implications of words.Surrealism was a major intellectual corad between the wars.20Theatre of Absurdity:Theatre of Absurdity is a term used to identify a body of plays written primarily in France from the mid-1940s through the 1950s.There works usually employ illogical situations,unconventional dialogues,and minimal slots to express the apparent absurdity of human existence.British scholar Martin Esslin first used the phrase in 1961.The leading figures of the movement are Irish-born playwright Samuel Beckett and French playwrights Eugene Ionesco。
A Closer Look at the Short-term Return Reversal
∗ Zhi
Da: Finance Department, Mendoza College of Business, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, zda@.
Qianqiu Liu: Shidler College of Business, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, qianqiu@. Ernst Schaumburg: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY 10045, ernst.schaumburg@ We thank Ravi Jagannathan, Owen Lamont, Xiaoxia Lou, Lucio Sarno, Jianfeng Shen, Tom Smith, Avanidhar Subrahamyam, Ashish Tiwari, Kelsey Wei, and seminar participants at Australian National University, Baruch College, City University London, University of Hawaii, Luxembourg School of Finance, Northwestern University, University of Michigan, University of New South Wales, University of Sydney, University of Technology Sydney, Wilfrid Laurier University, the 2010 China International Conference in Finance, the 2010 Financial Management Association Meeting, the 2011 FIRS conference, and the 2013 American Finance Association Meeting for helpful comments. We thank professor Ken French and Jeff Wurgler for making their data available. We thank Jing Zhang at Moody’s KMV for assistance with data on EDF. We are responsible for all remaining errors. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve system.
短期利率模型
21
定义树形上利率之间的距离
∆R = σ 3∆t
树枝形状的选择原则：在一个节点 上的树枝形状必 须使得所有三根枝上的概率均为正值。Hull-White 证明当jmax 大于或等于0.184/(a∆t) 的最小整数，而 jmax ＝－jmin时可使所有概率为正 概率的选择应保证下一时间段∆t 中，R*变化的期望 值和方差与其树形吻合，且概率之和为1。
22
R*树
23
24
第二步：R*树 第二步：
R树
定义： ，R树实际上是将R*树上 的节点垂直移动α个单位 定义 Qij 是如下证券的贴现值：在节点（i,j）被 到达时支付1美元，在其它节点到达时支付0美 元。 α0 Q1，j α1 R1，j Q2，j α2 计算零息债券价格 计算利率衍生 `````` 品价格 α0 的选取要使在时间∆t到期的零息债券价格与 25 树形吻合，因此被设为初始∆t时段的利率
(Ui −Vi )2 + P ∑
i =1
n
Ui是第i个校正产品的价格， Vi 模型给出的产品的价格， 校正的目标是所选的参数应使以上测度最小，P是对a 和σ本身或曲率的较大改变所施加的一个惩罚函数
31
Chapter 30 Interest Rate Derivatives: Model of the Short Rate
1
背景
瞬时短期利率( instantaneous short rate) r ：是关于在t开始的一个无穷小的时间区 间上的利率 债券价格、期权价格和其他衍生品只依赖 于r在风险中性世界（传统风险中性世界） 里的过程，以下给出r的过程均是定义在 传统风险中性世界里 P(t, T ) 是在时间T支付1美元的零息债券 在时间t时的价格
关于机器人能否取代人类的英语作文
关于机器人能否取代人类的英语作文The rapid advancements in technology have led to the development of increasingly sophisticated machines and robots that are capable of performing a wide range of tasks with precision and efficiency. As these technological innovations continue to evolve, the question of whether robots can eventually replace humans in various industries and occupations has become a topic of intense debate and discussion. While robots possess numerous advantages that make them appealing alternatives to human workers, it is essential to consider the potential limitations and challenges that may arise from such a transition.One of the primary advantages of robots is their ability to perform tasks with a high degree of accuracy and consistency. Machines can work tirelessly without the need for breaks or rest, and they are less prone to human errors or lapses in concentration. This makes them particularly well-suited for tasks that require repetitive or highly precise movements, such as assembly line work, quality control, or surgical procedures. Robots can also operate in environments that may be hazardous or unsuitable for human workers, such as inextreme temperatures, high-radiation areas, or deep underwater. By taking on these dangerous or unpleasant tasks, robots can help to protect human workers from harm and improve workplace safety.Moreover, robots can often complete tasks more efficiently and at a lower cost than human labor. They do not require salaries, benefits, or time off, and they can work around the clock without the need for rest or compensation. This can make them an attractive option for businesses looking to streamline their operations and reduce overhead costs. Additionally, robots can be programmed to perform complex tasks with a high degree of speed and efficiency, which can lead to increased productivity and output.However, the potential replacement of human workers by robots also raises significant concerns and challenges. One of the primary issues is the impact on employment and job security. As robots become more capable of performing a wide range of tasks, there is a risk that they may displace human workers in many industries, leading to widespread job losses and economic disruption. This can have far-reaching consequences for individuals, families, and communities, as well as for the broader economy.Furthermore, the replacement of human workers by robots may also have social and ethical implications. Many jobs not only provide individuals with a means of livelihood but also serve as an importantsource of social interaction, personal fulfillment, and a sense of purpose. The loss of these jobs could lead to feelings of isolation, depression, and a lack of purpose, which can have significant impacts on mental health and well-being.Additionally, there are concerns about the ethical implications of relying too heavily on robots and artificial intelligence. As these technologies become more advanced, there may be questions about the extent to which they can be trusted to make ethical decisions, particularly in situations where the consequences of their actions could be significant. This raises concerns about the potential for robots to make decisions that may be biased, discriminatory, or even harmful to human well-being.Another challenge associated with the replacement of human workers by robots is the need for ongoing maintenance and technical support. While robots may be able to perform tasks more efficiently than humans in the short term, they also require regular maintenance, software updates, and technical support to ensure their continued operation. This can add to the overall cost and complexity of using robots in the workplace, and may require the development of a new skilled workforce to support these technologies.Furthermore, there are concerns about the impact of robots on the broader economy and society. As automation and robotics becomemore prevalent, there may be a need to rethink traditional economic models and social structures to ensure that the benefits of technological progress are shared equitably. This may involve the development of new policies and programs to support displaced workers, as well as the exploration of alternative models of work and economic organization.Despite these challenges, it is clear that robots and other advanced technologies will continue to play an increasingly important role in the workplace and in society more broadly. As such, it is essential that we carefully consider the implications of these technological developments and work to develop policies and strategies that can help to mitigate the potential negative impacts while also harnessing the benefits of these technologies.One potential approach to this challenge may be to focus on the complementary nature of human and robotic labor, rather than viewing them as purely competitive. By identifying tasks and roles where robots can augment and enhance human capabilities, rather than replace them entirely, we may be able to create a more balanced and sustainable model of work that leverages the unique strengths of both human and machine.Additionally, it may be important to invest in education and training programs that can help workers to develop the skills and knowledgeneeded to thrive in an increasingly automated workforce. This could involve a focus on developing critical thinking, problem-solving, and creativity – skills that are less easily replicated by machines – as well as the technical skills needed to work alongside and maintain robotic systems.Ultimately, the question of whether robots can replace human workers is a complex and multifaceted issue that will require careful consideration and ongoing dialogue. While the potential benefits of robotic automation are significant, it is essential that we also carefully address the potential challenges and unintended consequences that may arise from such a transition. By taking a balanced and thoughtful approach, we may be able to harness the power of technology to improve human well-being and create a more equitable and sustainable future.。
计划寻找替代品英文作文
计划寻找替代品英文作文Title: Seeking Alternatives: Exploring Options for Change。
In today's rapidly evolving world, the quest for alternatives has become a fundamental aspect of decision-making. Whether it's about finding substitutes for traditional practices or seeking alternative solutions to pressing issues, the pursuit of alternatives is ubiquitous. This essay delves into the significance of seeking alternatives, explores the reasons behind it, and discusses the benefits it can bring.Firstly, why do we seek alternatives? The motivations are manifold. One reason is the inherent human desire for improvement and innovation. Throughout history, humanity has continually sought better ways of doing things, whether in technology, governance, or lifestyle. Seeking alternatives is a natural extension of this quest for progress. Moreover, limitations or deficiencies in existingoptions often drive the search for alternatives. When current methods or products fall short in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, or sustainability, individuals and organizations are prompted to explore other possibilities.Furthermore, diversity in choices is essential for resilience and adaptability. Relying solely on one option can lead to vulnerability. By diversifying and exploring alternatives, individuals and societies can mitigate risks and navigate uncertainties more effectively. This principle applies across various domains, from investment strategies to environmental conservation efforts. Additionally, seeking alternatives fosters creativity and critical thinking. It encourages individuals to challenge conventional wisdom, think outside the box, and consider unconventional solutions to problems.In today's interconnected world, the search for alternatives is amplified by globalization and technological advancement. The internet, in particular, has democratized access to information and expanded the rangeof available options. People can now easily research and compare alternatives from different cultures, industries, and disciplines. This democratization of information empowers individuals to make more informed choices and facilitates the spread of innovative ideas and practices.One area where the quest for alternatives isparticularly pronounced is sustainability. As concerns about climate change, resource depletion, and environmental degradation intensify, there is growing recognition of the need to transition to more sustainable practices and technologies. This transition requires exploringalternative energy sources, reimagining transportation systems, and redesigning production processes. Moreover, it involves questioning consumerist lifestyles and promoting alternative models of consumption and production that prioritize long-term ecological health over short-term gains.In the realm of business and economics, the search for alternatives is driven by factors such as market competition, changing consumer preferences, andtechnological disruption. Companies that fail to innovate and adapt risk becoming obsolete. Therefore, businesses constantly scan the horizon for emerging trends, disruptive technologies, and untapped markets. They invest in research and development to create new products, streamline operations, and stay ahead of the curve.Similarly, in politics and governance, the quest for alternatives is essential for ensuring democracy, accountability, and social justice. Citizens demand alternatives when they feel disenfranchised or marginalized by existing power structures. They organize protests, form grassroots movements, and advocate for political reform. Moreover, governments themselves recognize the need to experiment with different policy approaches and learn from best practices around the world. This process of policy innovation and experimentation is crucial for addressing complex societal challenges and advancing the public good.In conclusion, the pursuit of alternatives is a fundamental aspect of human endeavor. It reflects our innate drive for progress, resilience, and innovation.Whether in technology, business, politics, orsustainability, exploring alternatives expands our horizons, enhances our adaptability, and enriches our collective experience. By embracing diversity and creativity, we can navigate the complexities of the modern world and build a more sustainable, equitable, and prosperous future.。
电瓶车的英文单词
电瓶车的英文单词“electric bike”或“scooter”（在某些语境下可表示小型电瓶车）一、单词释义- “electric bike”：“electric”表示“电的，电动的”，“bike”是“自行车”，合起来就是靠电力驱动的自行车，也就是电瓶车。
- “scooter”：原指踏板车，现在也常用来指代电动踏板式的电瓶车。
二、单词用法- “electric bike”可以用作主语、宾语等。
例如：My electric bike is very convenient.（我的电瓶车非常方便。
）I bought an electric bike yesterday.（我昨天买了一辆电瓶车。
）- “scooter”同样可作主语、宾语。
例如：His scooter runs fast.（他的电瓶车跑得很快。
）She likes riding her scooter to work.（她喜欢骑她的电瓶车去上班。
）三、近义词- “e - cycle”（电动自行车的简称，和electric bike意思相近）- “electric moped”（电动轻便摩托车，与电瓶车有相似之处，都靠电力驱动）四、短语搭配- “ride an electric bike”（骑电瓶车）- “electric bike battery”（电瓶车电池）- “scooter rental”（电瓶车租赁）五、双语例句1. I love my electric bike! It's like a trusty steed that takes me wherever I want to go in the city. （我爱我的电瓶车！它就像一匹可靠的骏马，带我去城里任何我想去的地方。
）2. Her scooter is so cool. It's a real eye - catcher on the street. I'm thinking of getting one myself. （她的电瓶车太酷了。
提高可持续发展英语作文
提高可持续发展英语作文在提高可持续发展方面，英语作文是一个很好的平台，因为通过写作，人们可以深入思考和探讨这一重要话题。
以下是一篇1500字的高质量英语作文，参考了网上下载最多的范文，并对其进行了仿写：Title: Enhancing Sustainable Development: A Call to Action。
In today's rapidly changing world, the concept of sustainable development has gained significant traction. As we face pressing environmental, social, and economic challenges, it becomes imperative to explore ways to enhance sustainable development. This essay delves into the importance of sustainable development and proposes actionable steps to achieve it.First and foremost, sustainable development is crucial for safeguarding the well-being of current and future generations. It encompasses the harmonious integration ofenvironmental protection, social equity, and economic prosperity. By adopting sustainable practices, we can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, preserve natural resources, and promote social cohesion. However, achieving sustainable development requires concertedefforts from governments, businesses, and individuals alike.One of the key pillars of sustainable development is environmental conservation. Rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to widespread environmental degradation, including deforestation, pollution, and lossof biodiversity. To address these challenges, governments must enact stringent environmental regulations and promote green technologies. Businesses, on the other hand, should embrace corporate social responsibility by reducing their carbon footprint, minimizing waste generation, andinvesting in renewable energy. Additionally, individualscan contribute to environmental conservation through simple yet impactful actions such as reducing energy consumption, conserving water, and practicing sustainable agriculture.In addition to environmental conservation, socialequity is another essential aspect of sustainable development. Disparities in income, education, and healthcare undermine social cohesion and perpetuate inequality. To promote social equity, governments must prioritize inclusive policies that ensure access to education, healthcare, and employment opportunities for all citizens. Moreover, businesses can play a significant role in fostering social equity by implementing fair labor practices, promoting diversity and inclusion, and supporting community development initiatives. As individuals, we can contribute to social equity by advocating for marginalized communities, volunteering our time and resources, and fostering empathy and understanding towards others.Furthermore, sustainable development cannot be achieved without economic prosperity. However, traditional economic models based solely on GDP growth often lead to environmental degradation and social inequity. To foster sustainable economic development, we need to embrace alternative models that prioritize long-term sustainability over short-term gains. This includes investing in greenindustries such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and eco-tourism, which not only create jobs but also protect the environment and promote social well-being. Additionally, we must transition towards a circular economy that minimizes waste generation, maximizes resource efficiency, and fosters innovation. By adopting a holistic approach to economic development, we can create a more resilient and inclusive society.In conclusion, enhancing sustainable development is imperative for addressing the complex challenges facing our planet. By integrating environmental protection, social equity, and economic prosperity, we can create a more sustainable and prosperous future for all. However, achieving sustainable development requires collective action at the local, national, and global levels. As responsible citizens of the world, we must each do our part to promote sustainability in our daily lives and advocate for policies that prioritize the well-being of people and the planet. Only by working together can we build abrighter and more sustainable future for generations to come.这篇作文提到了可持续发展的重要性，并探讨了环境保护、社会公平和经济繁荣等方面的相关议题。
随机利率的三因子模型及其参数估计
随机利率的三因子模型及其参数估计本文在分析利率期限结构模型的基础上，将影响短期利率行为特征的均值回复、随机波动和跳跃因素同时考虑到利率期限结构模型的构建中，建立了三因子模型。
并且对模型参数进行了有效矩估计，比较几个同类模型，结果表明三因子模型对我国国债回购利率具有较好的拟合能力。
关键词：随机利率三因子模型有效矩估计随机利率模型概述利率作为金融市场上最重要的价格变量之一，一直是金融学研究的重点，特别是短期利率，它直接影响着资产定价、金融产品设计、保值和风险管理、套利以及投机等金融活动。
因此，学者们提出了许多利率期限结构模型来刻画利率的随机行为，例如，Merton(1973)、Vasicek(1977)、Cox(1985)、CKLS(1992)模型等，这些模型假设利率的动态变化都遵循扩散过程，即瞬时利率可用下列随机微分方程的一般形式来表达：drt=m(rt)dt+s(rt)dWt其中，m(rt)为漂移项，表示利率变化的瞬时期望；s(rt)为扩散项；s2(rt)为利率变化的瞬时方差；dWt为布朗运动的微分增量。
当漂移项或波动率函数选择不同形式时，就能得到已有的各个著名随机利率模型，它们都属于单因子利率参数模型。
但金融市场自身的复杂性决定了仅仅用单因子模型来描述是不完全的，国内外大部分的实证研究表明，瞬时利率变动的总体方差绝大部分来自于两到三个因素的贡献，并且三个主要因素基本上能解释短期利率曲线80%以上的动态特征。
因此本文将影响短期利率行为特征的均值回复、随机波动和跳跃因素同时考虑到利率期限结构模型的构建中，建立了三因子模型；并利用上海证交所国债回购利率数据，对模型参数进行了有效矩估计，比较已有的同类模型，说明该模型具有较好的拟合能力。
三因子模型的建立在已有的期限结构模型中，CKLS模型对短期利率的动态行为特点的研究具有推动作用，现今几乎所有与期限结构相关的实证大都基于CKLS 模型或与其有关，其具体形式为：drt=(α+βrt)dt+σrtγdWt（1）式中，(α+βrt)dt为漂移项，α为短期利率的长期均值水平。
中国精神的重要性英语作文
中国精神的重要性英语作文The Significance of the Chinese SpiritChina, a country with a rich and ancient civilization, has long been a source of fascination and admiration for people around the world. At the heart of this enduring legacy lies the Chinese spirit a set of values, beliefs, and attitudes that have shaped the nation's identity and guided its people through times of triumph and adversity. In a rapidly changing world, the significance of the Chinese spirit has never been more profound as it offers a unique perspective on the human experience and a framework for navigating the challenges of the modern era.One of the defining characteristics of the Chinese spirit is its emphasis on harmony and balance. This principle is rooted in the teachings of Confucianism, which emphasize the importance of maintaining social order and achieving a harmonious relationship between individuals, communities, and the natural world. This holistic approach to life is reflected in the Chinese concept of yin and yang the idea that opposing forces are actually complementary and that true fulfillment comes from finding the right balance between them.This emphasis on harmony extends to the way the Chinese people view their relationship with the environment. Unlike the Western model of conquering and exploiting natural resources, the Chinese spirit encourages a more symbiotic relationship where humans and nature coexist in a delicate balance. This is exemplified in traditional Chinese agricultural practices, which prioritize sustainability and the preservation of the land, as well as in the country's growing commitment to renewable energy and environmental protection.Another key aspect of the Chinese spirit is its deep respect for tradition and history. The Chinese people have a profound sense of their cultural heritage and the continuity of their civilization, which is reflected in their reverence for the wisdom of their ancestors and their commitment to preserving the customs and practices that have been passed down through generations. This reverence for the past is not a static or passive embrace of tradition, however, but rather a dynamic process of adaptation and innovation, where the lessons of history are applied to the challenges of the present.This respect for tradition is also evident in the Chinese approach to education and personal development. Rather than emphasizing rote memorization and the acquisition of facts, the Chinese educational system places a strong emphasis on the cultivation of character, the development of critical thinking skills, and the mastery of traditionalarts and disciplines. This holistic approach to learning not only produces highly skilled and knowledgeable individuals, but also instills in them a deep sense of cultural identity and a commitment to serving the greater good.Perhaps one of the most striking aspects of the Chinese spirit is its unwavering resilience and adaptability. Throughout its long history, China has faced countless challenges, from natural disasters and foreign invasions to political upheaval and economic turmoil. Yet, time and time again, the Chinese people have demonstrated an extraordinary capacity to overcome these obstacles and emerge stronger and more resilient than before. This resilience is rooted in a deep-seated belief in the power of perseverance, hard work, and collective action, as well as a willingness to embrace change and adapt to new circumstances.This resilience is particularly evident in the country's recent economic transformation, where China has rapidly emerged as a global superpower, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and becoming a driving force in the world economy. While this rapid growth has been accompanied by its fair share of challenges, the Chinese spirit has once again proven its ability to adapt and thrive in the face of adversity, as the country has embraced new technologies, fostered innovation, and developed a more sustainable and inclusive model of development.Ultimately, the significance of the Chinese spirit lies in its ability to offer a unique and compelling alternative to the dominant Western models of development and progress. By emphasizing harmony, tradition, and resilience, the Chinese spirit provides a powerful counterpoint to the individualism, materialism, and short-term thinking that have often characterized the Western approach to the world. In a time of increasing global interconnectedness and the urgent need to address complex challenges such as climate change, economic inequality, and social unrest, the Chinese spirit offers a valuable perspective on the human experience and a framework for building a more sustainable and equitable future.As the world continues to grapple with the rapid pace of change and the growing complexity of the challenges we face, the enduring significance of the Chinese spirit will only become more apparent. By embracing the wisdom and insights of this ancient tradition, we can learn to navigate the turbulent waters of the 21st century with a renewed sense of purpose, resilience, and connection to the natural world and to one another. In this way, the Chinese spirit can serve as a guiding light for all of humanity, inspiring us to cultivate a more harmonious, sustainable, and fulfilling way of life.。