商业银行房地产信贷风险的识别与防范策略研究

摘要

美国2008年爆发的次贷危机首次暴露了房地产业管理风险与商业银行信贷风险之间的密切关系，房地产信贷的风险预测和风险控制逐渐成为热点话题，人们也渐渐发现商业银行中房地产信贷风险研究对于其稳定发展的重大意义。尽管近几年来中国房地产业处于低迷状态，但其对于国民经济以及对GDP贡献出的力量仍是不容小觑。商业银行所提供的信用贷款依旧是我国房地产最主要的资金来源，在各项来源中占绝对优势。对于商业银行来说，由于经济萧条、房地产衰退和市场信用体系不完善，商业银行房地产贷款项目所占比例不断上升，银行所提供贷款总额度的持续攀升，也展现出了在各类信贷风险项目中房地产所占的比例呈持续上升态势。

根据我国住房贷款的整体情况，本文的研究首先简单介绍了房地产信贷风险的概念、类别及其特点，并在此基础上对目前普遍被大家认可的理论进行了概述，然后介绍了中国银行S分行的概况，并搜集了中国银行S分行的个人住房贷款业务及房地产开发商贷款业务的相关数据并对现状进行了描述，此外针对中行S分行对房地产信贷风险的识别及风险管理进行了分析，最后对中国银行S分行房地产信贷风险管理从商业银行的角度、政府的角度及房地产企业的角度提出了加强管理、防范信用风险和操作风险的对策和建议。

关键词：商业银行；房地产信贷风险；风险管理；防范策略

ABSTRACT

The subprime crisis, which broke out in 2008 in the United States, exposes the close relationship between the risk of real estate management and the credit risk of commercial banks for the first time. The risk prediction and risk control of real estate credit have gradually become a hot topic. And people also realize the importance of the research on the credit risk of commercial bank real estate. Although the estate industry is in a depressed state, its contribution to the national economy and the GDP is still not to be underestimated. For the real estate industry in China, its main source of finance is still commercial bank credit. Due to the economic depression, the recession of real estate and the imperfect credit system of the market, the proportion of real estate loan projects continues to rise, and the total amount of bank loans is keeping increasing. And this also reflects the increased trend of real estate credit risk project.

According to the overall situation of the housing loan in China, this paper first introduces the concept, type and characteristics of the real estate credit risk, and summarizes the related theories on the basis of understanding the real estate credit of commercial banks. Then we introduce the general situation of S branch, Bank of China. We collect related data of real estate developers loan business and describe its current situation. In addition, the related processes and development status of real estate credit risk in S branch, Bank of China are also analyzed. Finally, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the commercial bank angle, the government angle and the real estate enterprise point of view to strengthen management of real estate credit risk, prevent credit risks and operational risks for S branch, Bank of China.

Key words:Commercial bank；Real estate credit risk；Risk management；Preventive strategy.

目录

摘要 (Ⅰ)

ABSTRACT (Ⅱ)

一、前言 (1)

（一）研究背景 (1)

（二）研究目的 (1)

（三）研究意义 (1)

（四）研究综述 (2)

1、国外研究现状 (2)

2、国内研究现状 (3)

（五）论文框架 (3)

二、房地产信贷风险的概述 (4)

（一）房地产信贷及房地产信贷风险的定义 (4)

（二）我国房地产信贷风险的类型 (4)

1、信用风险 (4)

2、市场风险 (4)

3、操作风险 (5)

4、利率风险 (5)

（三）我国房地产信贷风险的特点 (5)

1、不可消除性 (5)

2、来源多样性 (5)

3、风险传递性 (6)

三、商业银行房地产信贷风险的相关理论及管理方法 (7)

（一）商业银行房地产信贷风险的相关理论 (7)

1、公共利益理论 (7)

2、银行风险承担理论 (7)

3、金融不稳定假说理论 (8)

4、信息不对称及道德风险理论 (8)

（二）商业银行房地产信贷风险管理方法 (8)

1、风险识别 (8)

2、风险度量 (9)

3、风险管控 (9)

4、风险预警 (9)

四、中国银行S分行简介及房地产贷款业务的发展状况 (10)

（一）中国银行S分行简介 (10)