7418069_伯南克：开放资本账户，中国会怎样？

Ben Bernanke : Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke
landed in Shanghai on May 25, 2015 to attend Shanghai Forum 2015 held by Fudan University, conversing with Zhang
Jun, dean of School of Economics.
Out of the halo and stress of chairing Fed, Bernanke, the former chairman whom the market has loved with mixed feelings, shared memories of the crisis, views on QE, and comments on emerging markets especially China’s opening up capital account and RMB SDR.
Fed, and also one of the benchmarks for raising interest rate.) Speaking of deflation, the monetary system collapsed in 1930s and commodity prices fell by 10% annually. No one was willing to purchase and corporations had no intention to invest. Deflation was a great enemy we faced.
Interest cut is a conventional monetary policy for the central bank. But by the end of 2008, the Fed had cut federal funds rate to somewhere near 0, so we had to implement unconventional monetary policies.
Therefore we had QE1 and the financial market was stabilized and economy began to recover in the second half of 2009. We were still worrying about deflation risks afterwards, so we carried on with QE2 and QE3. We believe QE is beneficial for the US economy. It’s no panacea but it did help the economy. America was recovering faster than Europe and Japan and is not facing deflationary risks like Europe and Japan do.
Zhang Jun: Could you share some of the hardships you experienced during the crisis?
Bernanke: As a matter of fact, I never imagined this kind of crisis when I was appointed. The economy was doing well in 2006 and nobody knew what would happen. So I took the position.
Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 and panic followed. Handling the Lehman problem was really agonizing for me. No buyer could afford Lehman’s debt, so Lehman Brothers had no choice but bankruptcy. But Fed saved AIG with the aid of treasury. Different from Lehman, AIG had enough mortgage for Fed and treasury to come to the rescue and extended its $85 billion maturing loan.
President Bush doubted this rescue solution back then. When we reported this to President Bush, he asked, “What are the other options?” And we answered, “None.” So in the end he had to show support.
Opposition and resistance against TARF came from the congress. A senior congress said to me, “I appreciate the way you handle things, but I want you to note this, it’s your responsibility and your decision.”
Obviously, not only was I fighting the crisis, I was also shouldering political responsibilities. Despite all the hatred, we had to rescue the economy and carry out QE. We tried very hard.
Zhang Jun: What would you say about Greenspan and Yellen?
Bernanke: I came to Washington in 2002 and joined the Federal Reserve on August 5 as candidate for decision committee. I had never served in the government before that. Back then Alan Greenspan was called Mastreo. I once worried that he was so famous that I could not be equally competent.
Janet Yellen is very experienced and even better than me. She used to be vice chairman. She is a very wise economist and we have very good terms. At present, she is carrying on the policies we laid down together.
If US going strong Favorable interest rate increase Zhang Jun: In what ways was the implementation of QE difficult? How do you view the2013 tapering tantrum?
Bernanke: QE has been effective but really difficult to work with. First of all, there had been no precedent. We had no experience in this regard so we had no idea how this would work out. And it’s pretty had to communicate with the market.
The tapering tantrum in May of 2013 was the best example. I only said “we will consider tapering if economy recovers and deflation eases” when the economy started to pick up. But there were investors who innocently believed there would be QE Eternity. So some of them thought Fed would end QE immediately after they heard my comments. But I thought I was being very clear. In December 2013 when we announced tapering the market was quite calm. You see how delicate market communicate could be. We will uphold monetary policy transparency and communication efficiency whatsoever.
Zhang Jun: When do you think the Federal Reserve will raise interest rate? What impacts will that have on the emerging
markets?
Bernanke:I’m not sure of that. I hope the US economy will maintain the growth. Market is based on expectation, therefore communication is very important. Responsibilities fall on the Fed as well as on the market. As long as the US economy is recovering with effective communication there shall not be huge fluctuation I think. If interest rate rises when the economy is strong, it will benefit other countries.
Zhang Jun: Would you predict on the long term growth rate of the US economy? What kind of accelerating impacts will the new technologies have on the economy?
Bernanke: Nobody knows. Economists are very good at telling you what was wrong before.
But in the long run, the growth will slow down, for labor force and technology innovations will slow down. It is still unknown whether technology progress will increase productivity and reduce demand for labor force. After the crisis neither companies nor research institutions have enough money. As the economy recovers, things start to look up and productivity might increase.
How will new technology accelerate the economy? It’s hard to predict. But I’m pretty optimistic. I believe IT, bio-tech, nanotech, robots will propel the economy and they will become economically important. But it’s hard to say how important innovative companies like Facebook will be for GDP.
More importantly, how will economic growth achieve equitable distribution when new technology comes along? How to ensure everyone could enjoy the fruits of technology? Robots could push the overall economy forward but at the same time, eliminate the incompetent ones. So it’s crucial that not everyone could benefit from economic growth. This is when education stands out.
Opening capital account Crucial part of growth strategy
Zhang Jun: The world has been somewhat pessimistic towards Chinese economy. Do you see a hard landing or collapse of Chinese economy?
Bernanke: The slowing down of Chinese economy is totally predictable. China will not enjoy 10% annual growth forever. The more sophisticated companies become the slower growth will be. Part of the slow-down is due to adjustment of economic growth model. China has been relying on investment in heavy industry like infrastructure and real estate which is more central controlled, while nowadays it’s transferring to industries like service and high-tech which relies more on social innovation. This adds to the complexity in control and prediction but it’s important for economy to grow from the bottom up.
Zhang Jun: China is pushing forward open capital account. Will that introduce fluctuation to the market?
Bernanke:Controlled capital account could undoubtedly reduce or erase market fluctuation but at the same time suffocate economic growth; therefore opening up capital account is a crucial part of the growth strategy. It’s just that the country need to think through before opening up capital account, it could only be beneficial when the economy is strong and could well adopt capital inflow and resist outflow and use the capital wisely.
Zhang Jun: What do you think of introducing SDR to RMB? Is there any possibility that RMB will become global reserve currency?
Bernanke: I think introducing SDR into RMB is more symbolic. During the process, China needs further reform of the financial market before RMB could become the world’s reserve currency. I believe in the mid-term US dollar will remain the major reserve currency.
Zhang Jun: How are you doing after leaving office?
Bernanke:Life is going pretty well right now. My wife is teaching and I joined Brookings Institution. I just finished my new book which will be published this fall.
那场始料未及的危机 美联储主席不易做
张军：过去的危机和金融理论研究到底对于当前的政策制定有何帮助？
伯南克：我在麻省理工学院攻读博士学位时，对于过去的危机做了很多研究（伯南克最感兴趣的是美国20世纪30年代的经济大萧条）。

尽管历次危机发生的环境和经济情况有所不同，但危机在结构、动因方面都很相似（parallel）。

只是在1930年代大萧条中，美联储没有履行最后贷款人（lender of last resort）的职责（现代货币主义鼻祖弗里德曼(Friedman，Milton)认为1930年代美国严重的经济金融危机是错误的货币政策的一场灾难，美联储的无能与不作为使得本来可以在1930年就结束的大萧条反而变得更加严重。

）通过对1930年代危机的学习和了解，美联储在2008年危机时积极展开行动，因此对于危机的学习认识很重要。

张军：各界对于QE褒贬参半，如何评价三轮QE的作用？
伯南克：我在MIT攻读硕士学位时，研究货币体系，危机的两大肇事方是——货币供应不足（short monetary supply）和通货紧缩（deflation），因此在危机时，美联储希望保证货币供应充沛，并施行宽松的货币政策，以此助力金融系统，因此我们施行了QE。

当然，为了不使经济过热，还要设定一个通胀目标。

（当前美联储的通胀目标是2%，为美联储两大重要使命之一，也是加息时点的衡量标准之一。

）
说到通缩，上世纪30年代，货币体系崩溃，物价每年以约10%的速度下滑，根本没人买东西，企业也无意投资，因此通缩是当年的大敌。

对于央行而言，降息是常规货币政策，但在2008年年底，美联储将联邦基金利率已砍至接近于
伯南克：
开放资本账户，中国会怎样？
2015年5月25日，美联储前主席伯南克（Ben Bernanke）空降上海，出席由复旦大学主办的“上海论坛2015”，并同中国知名经济学家、复旦大学经济学院院长张军进行了一场精彩对话。

在褪去了主席的光环和压力后，这位曾令市场爱恨交织的美联储前主席诙谐幽默地讲述了危机时期的种种艰难经历，评价了QE（量化宽松）的重要性和难处，也对加息对新兴市场的潜在影响、中国经济、资本账户开放、人民币加入SDR （特别提款权）等问题作出了客观评价。

张军：如何评价前任美联储主席格林斯潘和现任
主席耶伦？伯南克：我2002年来到华盛顿，同年8月5日进入美联储，作为决策委员会的候选成员，此前我从未在政府待过。

当时，格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）被称为Mastreo（大师），我一度很担心，格林斯潘名声这么大，很害怕自己无法胜任工作。

耶伦（Janet Yellen）经验丰富，可以说比我更
为丰富，她之前就是美联储副主席，是非常睿智的经济学家，我们交流良好。

当前，耶伦其实是延续了我
们此前共同制定的政策。

若美国经济强劲 加息对全球有利张军：你认为施行QE的难度在哪里？怎么看
2013年那场“退出恐慌”（taper tantrum）？（当时伯南克释放提前退出QE信号，导致国际资本疯狂撤离新兴市场）伯南克：QE的确有效，但很难操作。

首先，QE 没有先例，我们没有经验，因此不知道下场到底如何。

此外，与市场沟通存在难度。

比如2013年5月的那场“退出恐慌”就是最好
的例子。

当时经济有所复苏，我只是说了一句“如果经济有所起色、通缩缓解，就会考虑削减QE”。

但有些投资人天真地以为Q E 将永远存在（Q E Eternity），因此当时这些人听了我的话之后，好像觉得明天美联储就会退出QE，因此造成了之后的
“退出恐慌”，但是我认为当时我的沟通已经足够明确了。

反而到了2013年12月，我们宣布将会削减QE 购债规模时，市场的反应却比较平静。

可见，市场沟通是多么微妙。

不过，我们始终会保证货币政策透明、沟通清晰。

张军：美联储加息日程渐进，你认为美联储何时会加息？加息将对新兴市场造成什么影响？0，因此我们不得不采取非常规货币政策。

因此我们实行了QE1，稳定了金融市场，2009年下半年经济开始复苏。

此后，我们仍然担心通缩风险，因此我们进行了QE2和QE3。

我们认为QE对美国经济有利，尽管QE不是万灵药（panacea），但QE的确帮助了美国经济，美国的复苏比欧洲、日本都要迅速，当前完全不存在如欧日的通缩风险。

张军：可否回忆一下你在危机时期经历的艰难时刻？伯南克：其实我受任时从未想到自己竟然会遇到这种危机。

2006年，美国经济还不错，没人知道会发生什么，因此我就毅然决然接受了美联储主席的职位。

2008年，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brother）瞬间崩塌，恐慌情绪高涨。

处理雷曼兄弟的问题对我而言真是痛苦，但由于没有收购者能承担雷曼的债务，因此雷曼只能破产。

但此后美联储联合财政部救助了美国国际集团（AIG）。

和雷曼不同，作为保险集团的AIG拥有不少抵押物，因此美联储和财政部出面拯救AIG，延长了850亿美元紧急贷。

当时，布什总统对此救助方案表示怀疑。

我们和布什总统报备此事之时，布什问：“你还有什么别的选择？”（What are the other options？）我们回答，“只能这么做。

”（None.）布什最后只有表示支持。

此外，当时有国会议员对资产救助计划表示反对与阻力。

一名资深议员当时扔给我一句话——“我很欣赏你的处理能力，但我希望你注意一件事，（不管下场如何）这都是你的决定和你的责任。

”（It’s your responsibility and your decision.）可见，我不仅在抗击危机，还在肩负政治责任。

尽管所有人都恨我们，但我们不得不拯救经济，不得不出资，推行QE。

（We tried very hard.）
（totally predictable），中国不可能永远每年以10%增长。

企业越向高端迈进（sophisticated），增速自然会放缓。

此外，中国的放缓还由于经济增长模式变动，过去中国侧重基建、房地产等重工业投资，政府在其中会扮演更多角色（more central controlled），而现在中国从出口、重工业向更侧重
于服务、高科技等产业转移，需要社会创新，因此这
更难控制和预测，不过从底端开始让经济有机地增长起来是非常重要的。

张军：中国在推进资本账户开放，这是否会带来市场波动？
伯南克：毫无疑问，资本账户管制可以减少或抹平市场波动，但经济也无法实现增长，因此开放资本账户是增长策略的重要部分。

只是在开放之前，国家需要考虑清楚，只有经济强劲、能够很好地利用资本流入、具备应对资本外流的能力、知道如何聪明地用钱，这时开放资本账户才是对一个经济体真正有利的。

张军：如何看待人民币加入SDR？人民币是否可能成为全球储备货币？伯南克：我认为人民币加入SDR对中国而言更多的是象征性作用（symbolic），在此过程中，中国
更需要的是深化金融市场改革，才能真正推动人民币成为全球储备货币。

我相信，美元中期仍是全球最主要的储备货币。

张军：卸任美联储主席一职后，你过得开心吗？
伯南克：现在生活很不错，我妻子在教书，我也
加入了布鲁金斯研究院（Brookings Institute，美
国华府的中立派智库机构）。

我刚写完一本新书，今年秋天将会出版。

（第一财经日报记者 周艾琳/中国房地产金融记者 张昕 翻译整理）
伯南克：这我可不确定，我希望美国经济保持增长。

市场是基于预期的，因此沟通很重要，而且一切不仅是美联储的责任，也是市场的责任。

但是，只要保证加息的时候美国经济将复苏、沟通明确，我相信不会有很大波动。

如果加息发生在美国经济强劲的时候，那么加息对其他国家有利。

张军：可否预测一下美国的长期增长速度？新技术对经济又有什么推动作用？伯南克：这没人知道，经济学家擅长的是告诉你以前有什么做错了。

（Economists are very good at telling you what was wrong before.）不过就长期来看，美国增速会放缓，因为劳动力、技术创新的发展趋于放缓。

当然，技术进步是否会不断提高生产率以减少劳动力需求，这个还不得而知。

当然，在危机后，企业和研发方面都没有足够资金，现在经济复苏后，上述情况有所好转，因此生产率可能会提升。

新技术对经济又有什么推动作用？这点我们很难预测。

不过，我很乐观，相信IT、生物科技、纳米科技、机器人会驱动经济，他们会变得具有经济重要性（economically important）。

但很难预测如Facebook等的创新企业对GDP有多大推动。

更重要的是，新技术萌发后，经济增速如何合理分配？如何保证所有人能够分享技术的成果？机器人可以推动总体经济好转，但也会淘汰那些技能不足的人。

因此是不是所有人都能分享经济增长至关重要。

此时教育培训的重要性也随之凸显。

开放资本账户是增长策略的重要部分张军：国外对中国经济总是有点悲观，你认为中国经济会崩溃吗？会出现“硬着陆”（hard landing）吗？
伯南克：中国增速放缓是完全可以预见的。