Canonical measures and Kahler-Ricci flow
Info-Note-5-Doc9803alltext航线安全审计.en
Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authorityLine OperationsSafety Audit (LOSA)First Edition — 2002Doc 9803AN/761AMENDMENTSThe issue of amendments is announced regularly in the ICAO Journal and in the monthly Supplement to the Catalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids, which holders of this publication should consult. The space below is provided to keep a record of such amendments.RECORD OF AMENDMENTS AND CORRIGENDA AMENDMENTS CORRIGENDANo.DateapplicableDateenteredEnteredby No.Dateof issueDateenteredEnteredbyTABLE OF CONTENTSPage PageForeword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(v) Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(vi) Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(vii) Chapter 1.Basic error management concepts. .1-11.1Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-11.2Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-2Reactive strategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-2Combined reactive/proactive strategies. .1-2Proactive strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-41.3 A contemporary approach to operationalhuman performance and error. . . . . . . . . . .1-51.4The role of the organizational culture . . . .1-71.5Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-7 Chapter2.Implementing LOSA . . . . . . . . . . . . .2-12.1History of LOSA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2-12.2The Threat and Error Management Model.2-1Threats and errors defined. . . . . . . . . . . .2-1Definitions of crew error response . . . . .2-4Definitions of error outcomes. . . . . . . . .2-4Undesired Aircraft States . . . . . . . . . . . .2-42.3LOSA operating characteristics . . . . . . . . .2-5Observer assignment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2-7Flight crew participation. . . . . . . . . . . . .2-72.4How to determine the scope of a LOSA . .2-72.5Once the data is collected. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2-82.6Writing the report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2-82.7Success factors for LOSA. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2-8Chapter3.LOSA and the safety changeprocess (SCP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3-13.1Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3-13.2 A constantly changing scene. . . . . . . . . . . .3-13.3One operator’s example of an SCP . . . . . .3-2 Chapter4.How to set up a LOSA —US Airways experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-14.1Gathering information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-14.2Interdepartmental support . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-14.3LOSA steering committee. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-1Safety department . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-1Flight operations and trainingdepartments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-2Pilots union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-24.4The key steps of a LOSA. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-2Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-2Action plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-24.5The keys to an effective LOSA . . . . . . . . .4-4Confidentiality and no-jeopardy. . . . . . .4-4The role of the observer . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-54.6Promoting LOSA for flight crews . . . . . . .4-5 Appendix A — Examples of the various forms utilized by LOSA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A-1 Appendix B — Example of an introductory letterby an airline to its flight crews. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B-1 Appendix C — List of recommended readingand reference material. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .C-1FOREWORDThe safety of civil aviation is the major objective of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Consider-able progress has been made in increasing safety, but additional improvements are needed and can be achieved. It has long been known that the majority of aviation accidents and incidents result from less than optimum human per-formance, indicating that any advance in this field can be expected to have a significant impact on the improvement of aviation safety.This was recognized by the ICAO Assembly, which in 1986 adopted Resolution A26-9 on Flight Safety and Human Factors. As a follow-up to the Assembly Resolution, the Air Navigation Commission formulated the following objective for the task:“To improve safety in aviation by making States more aware and responsive to the importance of Human Factors in civil aviation operations through the provision of practical Human Factors materials and measures, developed on the basis of experience in States, and by developing and recommending appropriate amendments to existing material in Annexes and other documents with regard to the role of Human Factors in the present and future operational environments. Special emphasis will be directed to the Human Factors issues that may influence the design, transition and in-service use of the future ICAO CNS/A TM systems.”One of the methods chosen to implement Assembly Resolution A26-9 is the publication of guidance materials, including manuals and a series of digests, that address various aspects of Human Factors and its impact on aviation safety. These documents are intended primarily for use by States to increase the awareness of their personnel of the influence of human performance on safety.The target audience of Human Factors manuals and digests are the managers of both civil aviation administrations and the airline industry, including airline safety, training and operational managers. The target audience also includes regulatory bodies, safety and investigation agencies and training establishments, as well as senior and middle non-operational airline management.This manual is an introduction to the latest information available to the international civil aviation community on the control of human error and the development of counter-measures to error in operational environments. Its target audience includes senior safety, training and operational personnel in industry and regulatory bodies.This manual is intended as a living document and will be kept up to date by periodic amendments. Subsequent editions will be published as new research results in increased knowledge on Human Factors strategies and more experience is gained regarding the control and management of human error in operational environments.ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADS Automatic Dependent SurveillanceA TC Air Traffic ControlCFIT Controlled Flight Into TerrainCNS/A TM Communications, Navigation and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management CPDLC Controller-Pilot Data Link CommunicationsCRM Crew Resource ManagementDFDR Digital Flight Data RecorderETOPS Extended Range Operations by Twin-engined AeroplanesFAA Federal Aviation AdministrationFDA Flight Data AnalysisFMS Flight Management SystemFOQA Flight Operations Quality AssuranceICAO International Civil Aviation OrganizationLOSA Line Operations Safety AuditMCP Mode Control PanelQAR Quick Access RecorderRTO Rejected Take-OffSCP Safety Change ProcessSOPs Standard Operating ProceduresTEM Threat and Error ManagementUTTEM University of Texas Threat and Error ManagementINTRODUCTION1.This manual describes a programme for the management of human error in aviation operations known as Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA). LOSA is proposed as a critical organizational strategy aimed at developing countermeasures to operational errors. It is an organizational tool used to identify threats to aviation safety, minimize the risks such threats may generate and implement measures to manage human error in operational contexts. LOSA enables operators to assess their level of resilience to systemic threats, operational risks and front-line personnel errors, thus providing a principled, data-driven approach to prioritize and implement actions to enhance safety.2.LOSA uses expert and highly trained observers to collect data about flight crew behaviour and situational factors on “normal” flights. The audits are conducted under strict no-jeopardy conditions; therefore, flight crews are not held accountable for their actions and errors that are observed. During flights that are being audited, observers record and code potential threats to safety; how the threats are addressed; the errors such threats generate; how flight crews manage these errors; and specific behaviours that have been known to be associated with accidents and incidents.3.LOSA is closely linked with Crew Resource Management (CRM) training. Since CRM is essentially error management training for operational personnel, data from LOSA form the basis for contemporary CRM training refocus and/or design known as Threat and Error Man-agement (TEM) training. Data from LOSA also provide a real-time picture of system operations that can guide organizational strategies in regard to safety, training and operations. A particular strength of LOSA is that it identifies examples of superior performance that can be reinforced and used as models for training. In this way, training inter-ventions can be reshaped and reinforced based on successful performance, that is to say, positive feedback. This is indeed a first in aviation, since the industry has traditionally collected information on failed human performance, such as in accidents and incidents. Data collected through LOSA are proactive and can be immediately used to prevent adverse events.4.LOSA is a mature concept, yet a young one. LOSA was first operationally deployed following the First LOSA Week, which was hosted by Cathay Pacific Airways in Cathay City, Hong Kong, from 12 to 14 March 2001. Although initially developed for the flight deck sector, there is no reason why the methodology could not be applied to other aviation operational sectors, including air traffic control, maintenance, cabin crew and dispatch.5.The initial research and project definition was a joint endeavour between The University of Texas at Austin Human Factors Research Project and Continental Airlines, with funding provided by the Federal Aviation Admin-istration (FAA). In 1999, ICAO endorsed LOSA as the primary tool to develop countermeasures to human error in aviation operations, developed an operational partnership with The University of Texas at Austin and Continental Airlines, and made LOSA the central focus of its Flight Safety and Human Factors Programme for the period 2000 to 2004.6.As of February 2002, the LOSA archives contained observations from over 2 000 flights. These observations were conducted within the United States and internationally and involved four United States and four non-United States operators. The number of operators joining LOSA has constantly increased since March 2001 and includes major international operators from different parts of the world and diverse cultures.7.ICAO acts as an enabling partner in the LOSA programme. ICAO’s role includes promoting the importance of LOSA to the international civil aviation community; facilitating research in order to collect necessary data; acting as a cultural mediator in the unavoidably sensitive aspects of data collection; and contributing multicultural obser-vations to the LOSA archives. In line with these objectives, the publication of this manual is a first step at providing information and, therefore, at increasing awareness within the international civil aviation community about LOSA.8.This manual is an introduction to the concept, methodology and tools of LOSA and to the potential remedial actions to be undertaken based on the data collected under LOSA. A very important caveat must be introduced at this point: this manual is not intended to convert readers into instant expert observers and/or LOSA auditors. In fact, it is strongly recommended that LOSA not be attempted without a formal introduction to it for the(viii)Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA)following reasons. First, the forms presented in Appendix A are for illustration purposes exclusively, since they are periodically amended on the basis of experience gained and feedback obtained from continuing audits. Second, formal training in the methodology, in the use of LOSA tools and, most important, in the handling of the highly sensitive data collected by the audits is absolutely essential. Third, the proper structuring of the data obtained from the audits is of paramount importance.9.Therefore, until extensive airline experience is accumulated, it is highly desirable that LOSA training be coordinated through ICAO or the founding partners of the LOSA project. As the methodology evolves and reaches full maturity and broader industry partnerships are developed, LOSA will be available without restrictions to the international civil aviation community.10.This manual is designed as follows:•Chapter 1 includes an overview on safety, and human error and its management in aviationoperations. It provides the necessary backgroundinformation to understand the rationale for LOSA.•Chapter 2 discusses the LOSA methodology and provides a guide to the implementation of LOSAwithin an airline. It also introduces a model of crewerror management and proposes the error classi-fication utilized by LOSA, which is essentiallyoperational and practical.•Chapter 3 discusses the safety change process that should take place following the implementation ofLOSA.•Chapter 4 introduces the example of one operator’s experience in starting a LOSA.•Appendix A provides examples of the various forms utilized by LOSA.•Appendix B provides an example of an introductory letter by an airline to its flight crews.•Appendix C provides a list of recommended reading and reference material.11.This manual is a companion document to the Human Factors Training Manual (Doc 9683). The cooperation of the following organizations in the production of this manual is acknowledged: The University of Texas at Austin Human Factors Research Project, Continental Airlines, US Airways and ALPA, International. Special recognition is given to Professor Robert L. Helmreich, James Klinect and John Wilhelm of The University of Texas at Austin Human Factors Research Project; Captains Bruce Tesmer and Donald Gunther of Continental Airlines; Captains Ron Thomas and Corkey Romeo of US Airways; and Captain Robert L. Sumwalt III of US Airways and of ALPA, International.Chapter 1BASIC ERROR MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS1.1INTRODUCTION1.1.1Historically, the way the aviation industry has investigated the impact of human performance on aviation safety has been through the retrospective analyses of those actions by operational personnel which led to rare and drastic failures. The conventional investigative approach is for investigators to trace back an event under consideration to a point where they discover particular actions or decisions by operational personnel that did not produce the intended results and, at such point, conclude human error as the cause. The weakness in this approach is that the conclusion is generally formulated with a focus on the outcome, with limited consideration of the processes that led up to it. When analysing accidents and incidents, investigators already know that the actions or decisions by operational personnel were “bad” or “inappropriate”, because the “bad” outcomes are a matter of record. In other words, investigators examining human performance in safety occurrences enjoy the benefit of hindsight. This is, however, a benefit that operational personnel involved in accidents and incidents did not have when they selected what they thought of as “good” or “appropriate” actions or decisions that would lead to “good” outcomes.1.1.2It is inherent to traditional approaches to safety to consider that, in aviation, safety comes first. In line with this, decision making in aviation operations is considered to be 100 per cent safety-oriented. While highly desirable, this is hardly realistic. Human decision making in operational contexts is a compromise between production and safety goals (see Figure 1-1). The optimum decisions to achieve the actual production demands of the operational task at hand may not always be fully compatible with the optimumFigure 1-1.Operational Behaviours — Accomplishing the system’s goals1-2Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA)decisions to achieve theoretical safety demands. All production systems — and aviation is no exception —generate a migration of behaviours: due to the need for economy and efficiency, people are forced to operate at the limits of the system’s safety space. Human decision making in operational contexts lies at the intersection of production and safety and is therefore a compromise. In fact, it might be argued that the trademark of experts is not years of experience and exposure to aviation operations, but rather how effectively they have mastered the necessary skills to manage the compromise between production and safety. Operational errors are not inherent in a person, although this is what conventional safety knowledge would have the aviation industry believe. Operational errors occur as a result of mismanaging or incorrectly assessing task and/or situ-ational factors in a specific context and thus cause a failed compromise between production and safety goals.1.1.3The compromise between production and safety is a complex and delicate balance. Humans are generally very effective in applying the right mechanisms to successfully achieve this balance, hence the extraordinary safety record of aviation. Humans do, however, occasionally mismanage or incorrectly assess task and/or situational factors and fail in balancing the compromise, thus contributing to safety breakdowns. Successful compromises far outnumber failed ones; therefore, in order to understand human performance in context, the industry needs to systematically capture the mechanisms underlying suc-cessful compromises when operating at the limits of the system, rather than those that failed. It is suggested that understanding the human contribution to successes and failures in aviation can be better achieved by monitoring normal operations, rather than accidents and incidents. The Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA) is the vehicle endorsed by ICAO to monitor normal operations.1.2BACKGROUNDReactive strategiesAccident investigation1.2.1The tool most often used in aviation to document and understand human performance and define remedial strategies is the investigation of accidents. However, in terms of human performance, accidents yield data that are mostly about actions and decisions that failed to achieve the successful compromise between production and safety discussed earlier in this chapter.1.2.2There are limitations to the lessons learned from accidents that might be applied to remedial strategies vis-à-vis human performance. For example, it might be possible to identify generic accident-inducing scenarios such as Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Rejected Take-Off (RTO), runway incursions and approach-and-landing acci-dents. Also, it might be possible to identify the type and frequency of external manifestations of errors in these generic accident-inducing scenarios or discover specific training deficiencies that are particularly related to identified errors. This, however, provides only a tip-of-the-iceberg perspective. Accident investigation, by definition, concen-trates on failures, and in following the rationale advocated by LOSA, it is necessary to better understand the success stories to see if they can be incorporated as part of remedial strategies.1.2.3This is not to say that there is no clear role for accident investigation within the safety process. Accident investigation remains the vehicle to uncover unanticipated failures in technology or bizarre events, rare as they may be. Accident investigation also provides a framework: if only normal operations were monitored, defining unsafe behaviours would be a task without a frame of reference. Therefore, properly focused accident investigation can reveal how specific behaviours can combine with specific circumstances to generate unstable and likely catastrophic scenarios. This requires a contemporary approach to the investigation: should accident investigation be restricted to the retrospective analyses discussed earlier, its contribution in terms of human error would be to increase existing industry databases, but its usefulness in regard to safety would be dubious. In addition, the information could possibly provide the foundations for legal action and the allocation of blame and punishment.Combined reactive/proactive strategies Incident investigation1.2.4 A tool that the aviation industry has increasingly used to obtain information on operational human perform-ance is incident reporting. Incidents tell a more complete story about system safety than accidents do because they signal weaknesses within the overall system before the system breaks down. In addition, it is accepted that incidents are precursors of accidents and that N-number of incidents of one kind take place before an accident of the same kind eventually occurs. The basis for this can be traced back almost 30 years to research on accidents from different industries, and there is ample practical evidence that supports this research. There are, nevertheless, limitationsChapter 1.Basic error management concepts1-3on the value of the information on operational human performance obtained from incident reporting.1.2.5First, reports of incidents are submitted in the jargon of aviation and, therefore, capture only the external manifestations of errors (for example, “misunderstood a frequency”, “busted an altitude”, and “misinterpreted a clearance”). Furthermore, incidents are reported by the individuals involved, and because of biases, the reported processes or mechanisms underlying errors may or may not reflect reality. This means that incident-reporting systems take human error at face value, and, therefore, analysts are left with two tasks. First, they must examine the reported processes or mechanisms leading up to the errors and establish whether such processes or mechanisms did indeed underlie the manifested errors. Then, based on this relatively weak basis, they must evaluate whether the error manage-ment techniques reportedly used by operational personnel did indeed prevent the escalation of errors into a system breakdown.1.2.6Second, and most important, incident reporting is vulnerable to what has been called “normalization of deviance”. Over time, operational personnel develop infor-mal and spontaneous group practices and shortcuts to circumvent deficiencies in equipment design, clumsy pro-cedures or policies that are incompatible with the realities of daily operations, all of which complicate operational tasks. These informal practices are the product of the collective know-how and hands-on expertise of a group, and they eventually become normal practices. This does not, however, negate the fact that they are deviations from procedures that are established and sanctioned by the organization, hence the term “normalization of deviance”. In most cases normalized deviance is effective, at least temporarily. However, it runs counter to the practices upon which system operation is predicated. In this sense, like any shortcut to standard procedures, normalized deviance carries the potential for unanticipated “downsides” that might unexpectedly trigger unsafe situations. However, since they are “normal”, it stands to reason that neither these practices nor their downsides will be recorded in incident reports.1.2.7Normalized deviance is further compounded by the fact that even the most willing reporters may not be able to fully appreciate what are indeed reportable events. If operational personnel are continuously exposed to sub-standard managerial practices, poor working conditions and/or flawed equipment, how could they recognize such factors as reportable problems?1.2.8Thus, incident reporting cannot completely reveal the human contribution to successes or failures in aviation and how remedial strategies can be improved to enhance human performance. Incident reporting systems are certainly better than accident investigations in understanding system performance, but the real challenge lies in taking the next step — understanding the processes underlying human error rather than taking errors at face value. It is essential to move beyond the visible manifestations of error when designing remedial strategies. If the aviation industry is to be successful in modifying system and individual per-formance, errors must be considered as symptoms that suggest where to look further. In order to understand the mechanisms underlying errors in operational environments, flaws in system performance captured through incident reporting should be considered as symptoms of mismatches at deeper layers of the system. These mismatches might be deficiencies in training systems, flawed person/technology interfaces, poorly designed procedures, corporate pressures, poor safety culture, etc. The value of the data generated by incident reporting systems lies in the early warning about areas of concern, but such data do not capture the concerns themselves.Training1.2.9The observation of training behaviours (during flight crew simulator training, for example) is another tool that is highly valued by the aviation industry to understand operational human performance. However, the “production”component of operational decision making does not exist under training conditions. While operational behaviours during line operations are a compromise between production and safety objectives, training behaviours are absolutely biased towards safety. In simpler terms, the compromise between production and safety is not a factor in decision making during training (see Figure 1-2). Training behaviours are “by the book”.1.2.10Therefore, behaviours under monitored conditions, such as during training or line checks, may provide an approximation to the way operational personnel behave when unmonitored. These observations may contribute to flesh out major operational questions such as significant procedural problems. However, it would be incorrect and perhaps risky to assume that observing personnel during training would provide the key to understanding human error and decision making in unmonitored operational contexts.Surveys1.2.11Surveys completed by operational personnel can also provide important diagnostic information about daily operations and, therefore, human error. Surveys1-4Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA)provide an inexpensive mechanism to obtain significant information regarding many aspects of the organization, including the perceptions and opinions of operational personnel; the relevance of training to line operations; the level of teamwork and cooperation among various employee groups; problem areas or bottlenecks in daily operations; and eventual areas of dissatisfaction. Surveys can also probe the safety culture; for example, do personnel know the proper channels for reporting safety concerns and are they confident that the organization will act on expressed concerns? Finally, surveys can identify areas of dissent or confusion, for example, diversity in beliefs among particular groups from the same organization regarding the appropriate use of procedures or tools. On the minus side, surveys largely reflect perceptions. Surveys can be likened to incident reporting and are therefore subject to the shortcomings inherent to reporting systems in terms of understanding operational human performance and error. Flight data recording1.2.12Digital Flight Data Recorder (DFDR) and Quick Access Recorder (QAR) information from normal flights is also a valuable diagnostic tool. There are, however, some limitations about the data acquired through these systems. DFDR/QAR readouts provide information on the frequency of exceedences and the locations where they occur, but the readouts do not provide information on the human behaviours that were precursors of the events. While DFDR/QAR data track potential systemic problems, pilot reports are still necessary to provide the context within which the problems can be fully diagnosed.1.2.13Nevertheless, DFDR/QAR data hold high cost/efficiency ratio potential. Although probably under-utilized because of cost considerations as well as cultural and legal reasons, DFDR/QAR data can assist in identifying operational contexts within which migration of behaviours towards the limits of the system takes place.Proactive strategiesNormal line operations monitoring1.2.14The approach proposed in this manual to identify the successful human performance mechanisms that contribute to aviation safety and, therefore, to the design of countermeasures against human error focuses on the monitoring of normal line operations.Figure 1-2.Training Behaviours — Accomplishing training goals。
沃森和克里克发表的文章的翻译
核酸的分子结构——脱氧核糖核酸的结构我们希望证明脱氧核糖核酸盐（DNA）的结构，这种结构具有相当的生物感兴趣的新的特点。
Plauling和Corey已经提出了一种核酸结构。
他们非常友好的在其出版之前将手稿提供给我们。
他们的模型包括三个缠绕的链，与附近的糖磷酸骨架和外面的碱基。
我们认为，这种结构不理想，原因有二(1)我们相信，该材料赋予的透视图是盐，。
没有酸性氢原子，目前还不清楚是什么力量将持有的结构在一起，尤其是会互相排斥。
(2)有些距离显得有些过于小。
另三链结构也已由弗雷泽提出（在印刷中）。
在他的模型磷酸盐是在外面和内部的基础上通过氢键连接在一起。
这种结构的描述是相当不明确的，基于这个原因，我们不会对此发表评论。
我们希望提出根本不同的结构的脱氧核苷酸盐，这种结构有双螺旋且每个圈都有相同的轴线（看图）。
我们已经做出一般的化学假设，即核苷酸之间通过3'到5'磷酸二酯键连接到β- d-脱氧核糖核酸残基上。
这两条链都是右手螺旋。
但是由于这两个沿链相反的方向运行，这两条链是非常相似的。
每个链松耦合类似于Furberg的1号模型，这就是，碱基位于双螺旋的内部而磷酸盐位于外部。
糖及附近的原子结构接近Furberg 的标准配置，糖是大致垂直于与之接触的碱基。
在Z方向每一个链每隔3.4A就有一个碱基。
我们假设在同一链中相邻的核苷酸夹角为36 °，所以每条链的结构每十个核苷酸即每34A就重复一次。
一个磷原子到纵轴的间距为10A，由于磷在外面的，阳离子容易接触到他们。
其结构是一个开放的，它的水分含量是相当高的，在较低的水含量，我们希望碱基能够倾斜，这样的结构可能变得更加紧凑。
该结构新颖特点是这两条链的嘌呤和嘧啶碱基连接在一起的方式。
碱基的平面垂直于纵轴。
碱基配对，一条链的碱基和另一条链的碱基以氢键连接，因此两个碱基能够完全一致吻合，为了氢键的生成一对碱基中必须是一个是嘌呤另一个是嘧啶，碱基是如下生成的：嘌呤的1位置和嘧啶的1位置，嘌呤的6位置和嘧啶的6位置。
Canonical-Correlation-Analysis
的相关关系，可以用最原始的方法，分别计算两组 变量之间的全部相关系数，一共有pq个简单相关系 数，这样又烦琐又不能抓住问题的本质。 • 如何处理?
• 采用类似于主成分的思想，分别找出两组变量 的各自的某个线性组合，讨论线性组合之间的 相关关系，则更简捷。
典型相关是研究两组变量之间
相关性的一种统计分析方法。也是 一种降维技术。
• 典型负荷为变量与典型变量的相关系数，可由相关 系数的平方了解此典型变量解释了此变量多少比例 的变异数。
利用SPSS进行典型相关分析
• 例：研究人口出生与 受教育程度、生活水 平等的相关，如表所 示：X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 分别代表多孩率、综 合节育率、初中及以 上受教育程度的人口 比例、人均国民收入 和城镇人口比例。
• 类似于主成分分析，选择通过显著性水平检验，切 特征值累积总贡献占主要部分的那些典型变量即可。
冗余分析
• 冗余分析是通过原始变量与典型变量间的相关性， 分析引起原始变量变异的原因。以原始变量为因变 量，以典型变量为自变量，建立线性回归模型，则 相应的确定系数等于因变量与典型变量间的相关系 数的平方，它描述了由于因变量与典型变量的线性 关系引起的因变量变异在因变量的总变异中的比例。
典型相关
• 由上述方法得到的一系列典型变量u1 u2……,v1 v2……。这些典型相关系数所包含的有关原变量组 之间相关程度的信息一个比一个少。如果少数几对 典型变量就能够解释原数据的主要信息，特别是如 果一对典型变量就能够反映出原数据的主要信息， 那么，对两个变量组之间相关程度的分析就可以转 化为对少数几对或者是一对典型变量的简单相关分 析。这就是典型相关分析的主要目的。
Estimating Production Functions
2
model favors this set of proxies because the firm jointly cultivates physical capital and intangible organizational knowledge, given market conditions. Whenever its market prospects are favorable, the firm has an incentive to expand physical capital and to improve its intangible organizational capital simultaneously. Similar to prior approaches, the estimation model permits resolution of transmission bias (controlling for the simultaneous determination of unobserved firm-level productivity and factor choices), survival bias (using exit-rule estimation on an unbalanced firm panel), and omitted-price bias (removing time-invariant demand components from otherwise confounded productivity estimates). The estimation model achieves the resolution of bias on the basis of a lean set of identifying assumptions with plausible implications for productivity evolution. Its assumptions and implications set the present estimation model apart from prior approaches. First, identification of the production function does not have to rely on timing assumptions. Productivity shocks need not be fully known to the firm prior to physical investment choice (Olley and Pakes 1996) or variable input choice (Levinsohn and Petrin 2003). Instead, the asset model implies that variables related to a firm’s market conditions, and interacted with its physical investment, provide a natural source of identification for the productivity control function as long as an exit rule is estimated alongside. Estimation of an exit rule, as in Olley and Pakes (1996), is crucial if there are fixed costs of investment in organizational change, because the productivity control function for survivors changes strictly monotonically in its arguments only through the exit rule. So, an extended Olley-Pakes procedure is the estimation method of choice under an asset model of the firm. Beyond sector-level covariates, proxies to market conditions include the firmspecific mean characteristics of each firm’s competitors. When applied to a sample of medium-sized to large Brazilian manufacturing companies between 1986 and 1998, the extended Olley-Pakes procedure detects, and removes, frequently suspected biases. Bootstraps show that alternative estimators yield more volatile and less precise estimates than does extended Olley-Pakes estimation. Second, observations with non-positive investment are permissible for estimation under the asset model of the firm. Non-positive net investments occur frequently in micro data. Common theory of the firm predicts that firms with higher marginal products of capital, and lower marginal products of other factors, invest more so that a restriction to a positive-investments-only sample expectedly results in capital coefficients that exceed those in the full sample. As a consequence, the positive-investments-only subsample does not reflect the average production technology, but an initially less capital-intensive technology. Estimates from the asset model of the firm confirm this prediction in the sample of Brazilian manufacturers. 3
公共政策终结理论研究综述
公共政策终结理论研究综述摘要：政策终结是政策过程的一个环节，是政策更新、政策发展、政策进步的新起点。
政策终结是20世纪70年代末西方公共政策研究领域的热点问题。
公共政策终结是公共政策过程的一个重要阶段，对政策终结的研究不仅有利于促进政策资源的合理配置，更有利于提高政府的政策绩效。
本文简要回顾了公共政策终结研究的缘起、内涵、类型、方式、影响因素、促成策略以及发展方向等内容，希望能够对公共政策终结理论有一个比较全面深入的了解。
关键词：公共政策，政策终结，理论研究行政有着古老的历史，但是，在一个相当长的历史时期中，行政所赖以治理社会的工具主要是行政行为。
即使是公共行政出现之后，在一个较长的时期内也还主要是借助于行政行为去开展社会治理，公共行政与传统行政的区别在于，找到了行政行为一致性的制度模式，确立了行政行为的（官僚制）组织基础。
到了公共行政的成熟阶段，公共政策作为社会治理的一个重要途径引起了人们的重视。
与传统社会中主要通过行政行为进行社会治理相比，公共政策在解决社会问题、降低社会成本、调节社会运行等方面都显示出了巨大的优势。
但是，如果一项政策已经失去了存在的价值而又继续被保留下来了，就可能会发挥极其消极的作用。
因此，及时、有效地终结一项或一系列错误的或没有价值的公共政策，有利于促进公共政策的更新与发展、推进公共政策的周期性循环、缓解和解决公共政策的矛盾和冲突，从而实现优化和调整公共政策系统的目标。
这就引发了学界对政策终结理论的思考和探索。
自政策科学在美国诞生以来，公共政策过程理论都是学术界所关注的热点。
1956年，拉斯韦尔在《决策过程》一书中提出了决策过程的七个阶段，即情报、建议、规定、行使、运用、评价和终止。
此种观点奠定了政策过程阶段论在公共政策研究中的主导地位。
一时间，对于政策过程各个阶段的研究成为政策学界的主要课题。
然而，相对于其他几个阶段的研究来说，政策终结的研究一直显得非常滞后。
这种情况直到20世纪70年代末80年代初，才有了明显的改善。
高温胁迫对羽衣甘蓝生理特性的影响
根据驻马店市历年8月平均最高气温及极端最高气温有关的气象数据，驻马店市8月最高气温可达41 ℃，最高地温高于41 ℃，平均昼夜温差11 ℃左右。设定胁迫处理为38 ℃27 ℃昼12 h夜12 h，以26 ℃22 ℃昼12 h夜12 h作为对照。经测试，在正常生长条件下，0～4 d内本试验中相关生理数据变化没有显著差异，因此所有对照数据均以0 d数据作为比较。选取高度、长势、叶数一致的幼苗，放置于人工气候箱在260.5 ℃220.5 ℃8 0020 0020 008 00预处理5 d。5 d 后温度设为380.5℃270.5昼12 h夜12 h。处理期间保持气候箱内空气相对湿度80%，光照度3 000 lx。高温胁迫4 d。共8个试验组，每组设3次重复，每重复25株。为减轻高温引起的水分胁迫的伤害，每天高温处理前和高温处理后进行补水保湿。试验期间各试验组其他环境条件及管理措施保持一致。
SOD是重要的活性氧清除酶，当外来胁迫导致大量活性氧产生时，它能及时有效地清除自由基，保护细胞免受活性氧胁迫的伤害。从图3可以看出，随着高温胁迫时间的延长，4个羽衣甘蓝品种SOD活性先升高后降低。但在第0天处理时，各品种间SOD活性没有显著差异。在高温处理1 d时，穆斯博SOD活性低于叶牡丹、京引和白罗裙 在处理第4天时，各品种SOD活性与第0天相比有显著差异P0.05。从SOD活性增加的速度看，随高温胁迫的加强，京引和白罗裙SOD活性增加速度快，最高峰时分别增加75.0%和64.1% 而穆斯博和叶牡丹的SOD活性增加比较缓慢，最高峰时分别增加35.8%和49.1%。说明在高温胁迫下，各羽衣甘蓝品种均可应激提高体内SOD活性，以清除活性氧自由基对细胞造成的危害，且京引的SOD活性与穆斯博和叶牡丹相比差异显著，京引的SOD活性与白罗裙差异不显著。但当高温胁迫时间延长时，SOD活性并没有升高反而降低，京引和白罗裙的SOD活性比穆斯博和叶牡丹降低的少。这些结果都表明在高温胁迫下，京引和白罗裙叶片组织具有较强的抵御活性氧的伤害作用，而穆斯博和叶牡丹的抵御能力较弱。
Absolute and convective instabilities of a viscous film flowing down a vertical fiber2007
244502-1
© 2007 The American Physical Society
PRL 98, 244502 (2007)
PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS
week endform film thicknesses 0:6R < hN < 3R (corresponding values of dimensionless parameters will be given later). The flow rate is measured with computer-controlled scales placed below the collecting tank. During an experiment, the liquid height variation in the tank (hence the flow rate variation) is less than 1%. A linear camera and a fast digital camera are mounted on micrometric assemblies allowing for a precise alignment of the field of view with the film for the linear camera and a precise displacement along the fiber for the fast one. Spatiotemporal diagrams obtained with the linear camera (using a vertical pixel line) allow for a sensitive detection of the film-thickness variations. Fluctuations of the film thickness with time at a given position are also recorded by orienting horizontally the pixel line. A snapshot of the flow at the inlet is depicted in Fig. 1(b) for a small flow rate on a thin fiber. A self-sustained dynamics is observed. Immediately after the inlet, the axisymmetric film of uniform thickness emerging from the capillary meniscus breaks up spontaneously into a droplike wave train. Depending on the flow rate and the fiber radius, two different regimes can be identified from the spatiotemporal evolution of the film thickness (see Fig. 2). At low flow rates and relatively small fiber radii, a regular primary wave train is observed at a constant distance from the inlet. Sufficiently close to the inlet, a power spectrum of the time variations of the film thickness reveals a well-defined frequency. Further downstream, a secondary instability disorganizes the flow. However, for even smaller fiber radii and over a rather narrow interval of (small) flow rates (the thinner the fiber the wider the range of flow rates), the waves propagate at constant speed, shape, and frequency all along the fiber [see Fig. 1(c)]. This global mode regime was observed initially by Kliakhandler et al. [9]. At larger flow rates and any radius, the primary wave train is irregular, its frequency spectrum is much broader and its onset location fluctuates in time. For thick fibers (R 0:47 mm) the regular wave regime was never observed. A quantity of particular interest is ‘‘the healing length’’ defined as the distance from the inlet to the location at
脯氨酸与植物的抗逆性
脯氨酸与植物的抗逆性王宝增（河北省廊坊师范学院生命科学学院065000）摘要本文主要介绍了脯氨酸在植物体中的合成与分解以及脯氨酸与植物抗逆性的关系。
关键词脯氨酸逆境胁迫相容性溶质抗逆性植物一生中会受到多种不利环境的影响，在诸多逆境因素中，由干旱、盐渍等因素引起的渗透胁迫（os-motic stress）是限制植物生长发育和作物产量的主要原因。
许多植物在逆境胁迫中都会积累一些相容性溶质（compatible solute），如脯氨酸、甜菜碱、糖醇等，这些物质溶解度高，没有毒性，在细胞中积累不会干扰细胞内正常的生化反应，并且可以抵抗渗透胁迫［1］。
在已知的相容性溶质中，脯氨酸在植物中的分布最为广泛［2］。
1脯氨酸在植物体中的积累脯氨酸作为蛋白质氨基酸中的一员，在植物初生代谢中的作用尤为重要。
人们在萎蔫的黑麦中首先发现了脯氨酸积累这一现象［3］。
之后，在逆境胁迫下的其他植物中也发现了脯氨酸的积累。
植物在遭受干旱、盐渍、强光与重金属污染和其他生物胁迫过程中都会有脯氨酸的大量积累，少则十几倍，多则几十倍甚至上百倍。
许多研究表明，脯氨酸主要分布在细胞质中，调节胞质和液泡之间渗透势的平衡［4］。
在水分胁迫中，它优先在细胞质中积累。
例如马铃薯细胞在正常水分条件下，细胞内的脯氨酸有34%积累在液泡中；但当其处于水分亏缺条件下时，液泡中脯氨酸含量下降，细胞质中脯氨酸含量上升［5］。
2脯氨酸的合成与分解在植物中，脯氨酸的合成主要来自谷氨酸，合成反应主要在叶绿体中完成。
谷氨酸在吡咯啉－5－羧酸合成酶（P5CS）催化下还原成谷氨酸半缩醛，后者自发转变成吡咯啉－5－羧酸（P5C），吡咯啉－5－羧酸还原酶（P5CR）进一步将吡咯啉－5－羧酸还原成脯氨酸。
在大多数植物中，吡咯啉－5－羧酸合成酶由2个基因编码，吡咯啉－5－羧酸还原酶由1个基因编码。
脯氨酸的分解代谢在线粒体中完成，分别由脯氨酸脱氢酶（PDH）和吡咯啉－5－羧酸脱氢酶（P5CDH）催化完成，脯氨酸脱氢酶催化脯氨酸转变成吡咯啉－5－羧酸，吡咯啉－5－羧酸脱氢酶催化吡咯啉－5－羧酸氧化成谷氨酸。
开放经济下的结构转型_一个三部门一般均衡模型
根据 (2)至 (4)式 ,我们可以将制造业产品衡量的总产出表示为 :
3
∑ Yt =
α
Pi, t Yi, t = A2, t kt L = w tL t + it Kt
(5)
i =1
为了将模型封闭起来 ,我们需要设定需求方 。
典型代理人最大化一生的效用 :
∑∞ βt
t =0
C1t -γ 1-
-1 γ
i =1
这里 , C1, t表示农产品的消费量 , C2, t表示制造业产品的消费量 , 其中即包括对本国制造业产品的消
费 ,也包括对国外制造业产品的消费 , C3, t表示服务的消费量 , C4, t表示国内消费的国外农产品的消费量 。
4
4
ε > 0为各产品的替代弹性
,
∑<
i=1
i
=
1
。当
γ= 1时
其中 C43, t表示国外消费的本国农产品 。
均衡消费要求消费者在等式 (8)的约束下最大化等式 (7) ,求解消费者的问题 ,得到各商品的需求函
数: 我们将物价指数定义为 :
Ci, t
∑< < =
P ε -ε
i i, t
P 4 ε -ε
j = 1 j j, t
(w tL + it Kt -
( 15 )
L3, t L
∑ =
< 3 < < i =1
ε 3
(A3, A2,
t t
)ε-
1
ε i
( A i, A2,
t t
)ε-
1
+
ε 4
(
A13, A23,
Costa Rica’s Payment for Environmental Services
Contributed PapersCosta Rica’s Payment for Environmental Services Program:Intention,Implementation,and ImpactG.ARTURO S´A NCHEZ-AZOFEIFA,∗ALEXANDER PFAFF,†JUAN ANDRES ROBALINO,†AND JUDSON P.BOOMHOWER‡∗Earth Observation Systems Laboratory,Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,University of Alberta,Edmonton,Alberta T6G2E3,Canada,email arturo.sanchez@ualberta.ca†The Earth Institute,2910Broadway,Hogan Hall104,Columbia University,New York,NY10025,U.S.A.‡Center for Conservation Biology,Department of Biological Sciences,371Serra Mall,Stanford University,Stanford,CA94305-5020,U.S.A.Abstract:We evaluated the intention,implementation,and impact of Costa Rica’s program of paymentsfor environmental services(PSA),which was established in the late1990s.Payments are given to privatelandowners who own land in forest areas in recognition of the ecosystem services their land provides.Tocharacterize the distribution of PSA in Costa Rica,we combined remote sensing with geographic informationsystem databases and then used econometrics to explore the impacts of payments on deforestation.Paymentswere distributed broadly across ecological and socioeconomic gradients,but the1997–2000deforestationrate was not significantly lower in areas that received payments.Other successful Costa Rican conservationpolicies,including those prior to the PSA program,may explain the current reduction in deforestation rates.The PSA program is a major advance in the global institutionalization of ecosystem investments because few,if any,other countries have such a conservation history and because much can be learned from Costa Rica’sexperiences.Keywords:Costa Rica,deforestation trends,ecosystems services,payment for environmental services,PSAEl Programa de Pago de Servicios Ambientales de Costa Rica:Intenci´o n,Implementaci´o n e ImpactoResumen:Evaluamos la intenci´o n,implementaci´o n e impacto del programa de pago de servicios ambi-entales(PSA)de Costa Rica,que fue establecido al final de la d´e cada de1990.Los pagos son otorgados apropietarios privados en´a reas boscosas como reconocimiento a los servicios ecosist´e micos que proporcionansus tierras.Para caracterizar la distribuci´o n de PSA en Costa Rica,combinamos bases de datos de percepci´o nremota y de sistemas de informaci´o n geogr´a fica y posteriormente utilizamos econometr´ıa para explorar losimpactos de los pagos sobre la deforestaci´o n.Los pagos fueron ampliamente distribuidos a lo largo de gradi-entes ecol´o gicos y socioecon´o micos,pero la tasa de deforestaci´o n1997–2000no fue significativamente menoren las´a reas que recibieron pagos.Otras pol´ıticas costarricenses de conservaci´o n exitosas,incluyendo algunasprevias al programa PSA,pueden explicar la reducci´o n actual de tasas de deforestaci´o n.El programa PSA esun avance importante en la institucionalizaci´o n global de las inversiones en ecosistemas porque pocos,sialguno,pa´ıses tienen tal historia de conservaci´o n y porque se puede aprender mucho de las experiencias deCosta Rica.Palabras Clave:Costa Rica,pago de servicios ambientales,PSA,servicios ecosist´e micos,tendencias de defor-estaci´o nPaper submitted March21,2006;revised manuscript accepted March21,2007.1165Conservation Biology Volume21,No.5,1165–1173C 2007Society for Conservation BiologyDOI:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00751.x1166Impacts of Ecosystem Services Payments S´anchez-Azofeifa et al.IntroductionA new generation of conservation approaches is rapidly emerging(Ferraro&Kiss2002;Pagiola et al.2002).They differ from traditional approaches in three critical and in-terrelated ways:they emphasize human-dominated land-scapes,focus on ecosystem services,and utilize innova-tive finance mechanisms.To date,however,their imple-mentation has been on a small spatial scale.To apply the most promising initiatives worldwide,it is critical to un-derstand their intentions,designs,scopes,and limitations (Ferraro2001).Ecosystems provide services that include the pollination of crops,renewal of soil fertility,purifi-cation of water,and stabilization of climate.For global services,such as the sequestration of carbon to aid in climate stability,the origin of the service does not mat-ter.Nevertheless,many services are supplied across lo-cal and regional scales;thus,their delivery hinges on the capacity of species and ecosystems to provide benefits precisely where humans are located.Therefore,success in conservation and many other aspects of human well-being is linked intimately to the management of highly fragmented landscapes(Janzen1998;McNeely&Scherr 2002).Incentives for maintaining the provision of ecosystem services(Pagiola et al.2002;Pagiola et al.2004;Newburn et al.2005)include many components.Among them are regulatory systems of payments for ecosystem services, such as those currently operating in countries such as Australia,Costa Rica,and Mexico;market-based appro-aches to paying for ecosystem services,such as the emerg-ing international carbon market;and mitigation banking approaches,such as those operating in the United States in the context of the Clean Water Act and the Endangered Species Act.Conservation programs under the European Common Agricultural Policy and the U.S.Farm Bill,in ad-dition to various financial-incentive schemes of The World Bank,are also important initiatives.We explored the inception and initial impact of the first generation(1997–2000)of an innovative conserva-tion program established in Costa Rica:payments for en-vironmental services,or PSA(pagos por servicios am-bientales).The PSA program in Costa Rica occurred in two phases.The first phase(1997–2000)coincided with a significant drop in the national rate of deforestation (1997–2000),relative to the1986–1997time period and the high rates of forest clearing that occurred from the 1960s to the early1980s(S´a nchez-Azofeifa et al.2001). Recently,there has been a net increase in forest cover, mostly due to land abandonment,although this process is not sufficient to reverse the existing fragmentation of the landscape or the increasing isolation of the country’s national parks and biological reserves(S´a nchez-Azofeifa et al.2003).The second phase of the PSA program re-lates to the implementation of the Ecomarkets project (2001–today)and involves a comprehensive microtarget-ing scheme and the provision of new ecosystem services (e.g.,drinking water)that were not part of the first phase. It is tempting to assign credit for the decrease in defor-estation rates to the implementation of the PSA program. However,assigning causality to a farm-level program of this type requires a detailed analysis of deforestation over space and time and controls for other drivers of change (e.g.,international price of meat).Only by controlling for the effects of other factors(e.g.,strong forestry leg-islation),can one conclude that the implementation of the PSA program and low rates of forest clearing are not merely coincidental.Furthermore,how the PSA payments were allocated needs to be taken into account.We examined the effect of the first phase(1997–2000) of Costa Rica’s PSA program on ecological life zones,hy-drological basins,buffer zones around protected areas, planned biological corridors,and deforestation fronts.To test the hypothesis that the first generation of the PSA program has had an impact on the current low defor-estation rates,we examined payment allocation relative to the future threat of clearing and land-use changes in deforestation over space and time.Intent of Costa Rica’s PSA ProgramThree laws form the framework within which Costa Rica established the PSA program.The1995Environment Law 7554mandates a“balanced and ecologically driven envi-ronment”for all.The1996Forestry Law7575mandates “rational use”of all natural resources and prohibits land-cover change in forests.Finally,the1998Biodiversity Law promotes the conservation and“rational use”of biodiver-sity resources.Payments in the first phase were designed to address relevant forest conservation failures from a legal and insti-tutional standpoint.The PSA program compensated forest landowners for value created by either planted or natu-ral forest on their land and recognized four services:(1) greenhouse gas mitigation;(2)hydrological services;(3) scenic value;and(4)biodiversity.The program did not attempt to measure all four services on a given parcel at once.An identically valued bundle of these services was assumed to be provided by each hectare of enrolled par-cel.In the first phase enrollment was not based on parcel size,and the policy was“first come,first served.”Fac-tors such as farm size,human capital,and household eco-nomic level influenced participation in the program,and large landowners were disproportionately represented among participants at the national and regional levels(Mi-randa et al.2003;Zbinden&Lee2005).The PSA program has to compete with other land-use returns.Average returns from PSA varied from US$22toConservation Biology Volume21,No.5,2007S´anchez-Azofeifa et al.Impacts of Ecosystem Services Payments1167US$42/ha/year before fencing,tree planting,and certifi-cation costs.The main competing land use is cattle ranch-ing,which shows returns from US$8to US$125,depend-ing on location,land type,and ranching practices(Arroyo-Mora et al.2005).One measure of cattle-ranching returns is the cost of renting1ha of pasture.In Cordillera Cen-tral,in the heart of Costa Rica,pasture rental ranges from US$20to US$30/ha/year(Castro et al.1998). Implementation of the PSAThree types of contracts were part of the first phase of the PSA program:forest conservation,reforestation, and sustainable forest management.Forest conservation contracts required land owners to protect existing(pri-mary or secondary)forest for5years,with no land-cover change allowed.Reforestation contracts bound owners to plant trees on agricultural or other abandoned land and to maintain that plantation for15years.Sustainable forest management contracts(eliminated briefly in2000)com-pensated landowners who prepared a“sustainable log-ging plan”to conduct low-intensity logging while keeping forest services intact.Just as in the reforestation contracts, obligations for sustainable forest management contracts were for15years,although payments arrived during the first5years.Compensation varied across these types of contracts. For conservation contracts,payment was US$210(60,000 colones)/ha in equal installments over5years.Reforesta-tion contracts paid US$537(154,000colones)/ha,with 50%paid the first year,20%the second year,and10% over the following3years.The forest management con-tracts paid US$327(94,000colones)/ha,with the same temporal structure as reforestation.Our conversion to U.S.dollars was based on the1999average exchange(287 colones/U.S.dollar)rate provided by the Costa Rican Min-istry of Planning(MIDEPLAN).(Hereafter monetary units are in U.S.dollars unless otherwise indicated.)Any PSA contract creates a legal easement that remains with the property if it is sold.Owners transfer rights to the greenhouse-gas-mitigation potential of the parcel to the national government.Costa Rica can then sell these abate-ment units on any international market.Under the PSA program rules,no individual can register<2ha or>300 ha/year,although indigenous groups may register up to 600ha/year.There is no area limit for coalitions that act through local nongovernmental organizations.Such orga-nizations can function as intermediaries between small-holders and authorities to increase participation by those who might not enroll.The Fondo Nacional de Financiamiento Forestal(FON-AFIFO),a public forestry-financing agency created under Forestry Law7575in1996,administers the PSA program. The inspection responsibilities within the program’s im-plementation,however,rest with the Sistema Nacional de Areas de Conservacion(SINAC)and with the Ministerio del Ambiente y Energ´ıa(MINAE).The primary funding source for the original PSA pro-gram was a15%consumer tax on fossil fuels estab-lished under the1996Forestry Law.Its Article69stated that FONAFIFO was to receive one-third of the revenue. The Ministry of Finance,however,rarely delivered that amount,and in2001the legislature repealed Article69 and adopted the Ley de Simplificaci´o n y Eficiencia Trib-utaria,which assigns3.5%of the tax revenue directly to the PSA program(Camacho&Reyes2002).This provided less money in theory,but increased actual transfers from the Ministry of Finance(Camacho&Reyes2002).As of 2003,such tax revenues provided an average of$6.4mil-lion/year to the PSA program(Pagiola et al.2002). Funding to the PSA program also comes from volun-tary contracts with private hydroelectric producers,who reimburse FONAFIFO for payments given to individuals such as upstream landowners in watersheds.These pri-vate agreements have generated only about$100,000to finance about2,400ha of PSA contracts.When fully im-plemented,however,these agreements are expected to provide about$600,000annually and to cover close to 18,000ha(Pagiola et al.2002).Carbon-abatement trading was expected to provide sig-nificant funding through sales of certified tradable offsets. However,no significant market for carbon abatement has emerged.The only sale has been to Norway,which con-sisted of$2million in1997for200million tons of carbon sequestration(Pagiola et al.2002).Funding was also provided by a World Bank loan and a Global Environmental Facility(GEF)grant through a pro-gram called Ecomercados(a term used to define the sec-ond phase of the PSA program after the year2000).The World Bank/GEF loan for$32.6million was designed to support current PSA contracts.Of the total$8million,$5 million was used for conservation contracts along the pro-posed sites that will eventually form part of the Mesoamer-ican Biological Corridor.The other$3million was in-tended to increase human,administrative,and monitor-ing capacity in the various institutions associated with the program,including FONAFIFO,SINAC,and MINAE(Ortiz &Kellenberg2002).MethodsData on Payments,Forest Cover,and Dimensions of Conservation InterestThe data on the payment amounts for environmental ser-vices to landowners were provided by FONAFIFO.The information on contracts we analyzed is available in vec-tor format,including the spatial location of the farms that participate in the different types of PSA contracts.WeConservation BiologyVolume21,No.5,20071168Impacts of Ecosystem Services Payments S´anchez-Azofeifa et al.quantified forest cover and change based on a comprehen-sive Landsat Thematic Mapper data set produced for FON-AFIFO by the University of Alberta’s Earth Observation Systems Laboratory(EOSL)and the School of Forestry at the Costa Rica Technology Institute.The forest-cover maps were produced for1986,1997,and2000.The fol-lowing five land-cover categories were mapped:(1)forest (canopy closure>80%),(2)1986–1997and1997–2000 deforestation and reforestation,(3)mangroves,(4)non-forest,and(5)cloud/water cover.The maps had a mini-mum mapping unit of3.0ha and were generated with the same techniques implemented by the NASA Pathfinder Project(Skole&Tucker1993;S´a nchez-Azofeifa et al. 2001).Over800independent control sites were used for the validation of the1997and2000maps(S´a nchez-Azofeifa et al.2001,2003).Overall accuracy of the forest-cover map was90%(S´a nchez-Azofeifa et al.2003).We generated a digital elevation model(DEM)from166 digitized topographic maps(1:50,000).Elevations every 20m and supplementary elevations every10m were used to create a grid DEM,with a spatial scale of28.5m.We used the DEM to produce drainage-basin boundaries and slope and aspect maps.A series of thematic GIS maps delineating different hy-drological,biological,and conservation land uses were cross-referenced against the extent of national parks and biological reserves.Those GIS maps were of(1)drainage basins important for hydropower production,drinking-water supply,and flood control(S´a nchez-Azofeifa et al. 2002a);(2)areas with potential for biological corridors that may become part of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor efforts(known as GRUAS);(3)Holdridge life zones(Holdridge1967);and(4)political boundaries of the13conservation areas in Costa Rica.National park and biological reserve areas falling in each one of the former GIS maps were eliminated because PSA payments are not allowed for public lands.From the point of view of water resource management, we placed all drainage basins into one of four categories: (1)basins in which the management of water quality is considered especially important(4drainage basins),(2) basins not important for water quality,(3)basins with existing or planned dams for hydropower(8drainage basins),and basins not planned for hydropower dams (S´a nchez-Azofeifa et al.2002a).Finally,we explored the spatial distribution of PSA in1-and5-km buffer areas around national parks,biological reserves,and1997–2000deforestation fronts(S´a nchez-Azofeifa et al.2003; Van Laake&S´a nchez-Azofeifa2004).Data AnalysisTo reveal the spatial distribution of PSA contracts,we overlaid them with the GIS layers described above.For these and other analyses,when a PSA polygon crossed a border between two defined categories(e.g.,two differ-ent life zones),its area was divided across those units as a function of the total area falling within each category. To explore the effects of PSA contracts on changes in for-est cover due to clearing,we used5×5km grid cells, with each cell representing a nested approach with a full resolution of28.5m and no resampling of the data.We used forest and nonforest data(1986,1997,and 2000)from2000grid cells(total country area of50,100 km2)to calculate the1986–1997and1997–2000defor-estation ing a GIS approach,we also overlaid PSA locations in the context of(1)proximity to national parks and biological reserves,(2)slope,(3)aspect,(3)distances to three major market locations(San Jose[capital city], Limon[Caribbean coast],and Puntarenas[Pacific coast], and(4)life zones.Life zones were classified into three categories as a func-tion of their potential agricultural productivity:(1)“good”life zones,which included all humid areas(medium pre-cipitation)with moderate temperature,(2)“medium”life zone,which included very humid areas(high precipita-tion)in moderate to mountain elevations with moderate temperatures;and(3)“poor”life zones,which included all very humid areas with high temperatures,very dry,hot areas,and rainy life zones(Pfaff&S´a nchez-Azofeifa2004). We performed ordinary least square(OSL)regressions to explain the differences in deforestation rates across space and time based on PSA density(number of parcels per hectare)and life zones,slopes,aspect,and distances to major market locations.Finally,we explored the hypothesis that implementa-tion of the PSA program was based,in part,on expec-tations that payments for ecological services were made in areas under greatest threat of forest conversion as sug-gested by Pfaff and S´a nchez-Azofeifa(2004).We examined this hypothesis by studying the proximity of the payments to recent deforestation as an indicator of expected threat (i.e.,payments within1km of recent1986–2000defor-estation).ResultsTotal Distribution of PSA ContractsAround300,000ha of primary,secondary,or planted for-est received funding in the first phase of the PSA program through2000.The mean project size was approximately 102ha.The largest project was4025ha.The stated size limits were not fully enforced;202projects were over the 300-ha maximum and60contained less than the2-ha min-imum.From1997to2000,the number of participants en-tering the program decreased(Fig.1),probably because funds were not delivered as expected(Camacho&Reyes 2002).Payments for conservation alone were larger than the sum of the payments made for reforestation and forestConservation Biology Volume21,No.5,2007S ´anchez-Azofeifa et al.Impacts of Ecosystem Services Payments 1169199719981999200020012002A r e a (h a ) u n d e r P S A20x1060x1080x10100x10Y ear:Total Investment:26,207,59916,351,37016,277,2426,966,9687,806,2907,031,799(1531)(1021)(925)(501)(406)(329)Total Participants:Figure 1.Distribution of PSA (payments for ecosystemservices)in Costa Rica by type of payment (C,conservation;R,reforestation;and M,management)between 1997and 2002.The number of people involved in the program and the total investment (in U.S.dollars)are presented for each year .management (Fig.1),but conservation contracts had the lowest payments per unit area.Reforestation and man-agement contracts generally held steady over the years,whereas conservation payments fell (e.g.,>$20million in 1997;almost $12million in 1999;and <$4million in 2001).Table 1.Distributions of PAS (payment for ecosystem services)on Costa Rican lands outside of protected areas between 1997and 2000.aArea or type of distributionnonpublic b nonpublic conservation reforestation management parks (%)area (ha)area (%)bpayment (%)payment (%)payment (%)Holdridge life zonesHumid Lower Montane 0.023,9250.80.10.70.0Humid Premontane 13.0553,550 4.4 3.60.80.0Humid Tropical1.11,068,4997.2 4.1 2.80.4Very Humid Montane7.81,728 4.0 4.00.00.0Very Humid Lower Montane 2.5113,790 4.1 3.60.50.0Very Humid Premontane 1.91,198,697 4.9 2.1 2.00.9Very Humid Tropical 12.61,151,77710.9 5.4 2.9 2.6Pluvial Montane54.6127,785 3.7 3.00.70.0Pluvial Lower Montane 45.5348,4647.87.00.50.2Pluvial Premontane 24.5373,038 6.9 6.70.20.0Dry Tropical 3.3141,544 6.3 4.9 1.40.0Conservation areas Amistad Atlantico 31.9616,6028.2 6.20.7 1.3Amistad Pacifico 13.6622,622 2.8 1.80.90.1Arenal5.1917,38010.4 2.8 4.8 2.7Cordillera Central 10.3569,2778.0 5.2 1.8 1.0Guanacaste 23.1354,1746.9 5.2 1.10.6Osa13.3424,084 4.6 3.70.50.4Pacific Central 1.2545,339 5.1 2.8 2.30.0Tempisque 3.4760,5347.4 6.1 1.30.0Tortuguero7.3303,316 5.9 3.5 1.4 1.1All of Costa Rica11.34,534,3507.04.12.00.9a Distribution is presented across Holdridge life zones and conservation areas.b Areasoutside national parks and biological reserves.Spatial Allocation of PSA ContractsThe PSA contracts were distributed broadly across ecolog-ical life zones (Table 1).Most life zones had areas under PSA ranging from 4%to 8%of their total area.The max-imum allocation was achieved for Very Humid TropicalConservation Biology Volume 21,No.5,20071170Impacts of Ecosystem Services Payments S´anchez-Azofeifa et al. Table2.Distribution of PSA(payments for ecosystem services)in Costa Rica from1997to2000for areas outside national parks and biological reserves linked to conservation activities.Area or type of distributionnonpublic a nonpublic a conservation reforestation management Conservation activity parks(%)area(ha)area(%)payment(%)payment(%)payment(%) Urban water qualitySan Jose’s&three others b 6.71,102,459 3.6 2.3 1.10.2all other basins13.03,388,8828.1 4.7 2.3 1.1 Hydropower interestsactual&planned dams c13.41,597,442 5.1 2.6 1.80.7all other basins10.52,893,8998.1 4.9 2.1 1.0 Near current protected areasnear(<5km)0.0793,6307.0 5.2 1.20.6far(>5km)0.03,620,916 6.5 3.4 2.10.9In planned protected areaswithin GRUAS corridors0.0631,9349.9 6.1 2.2 1.7 outside GRUAS corridors0.03,787,737 6.3 1.90.8 3.6a Nonpublic:areas outside national parks and biological reserves.b Reventazon,Frio,Tarcoles,Terraba basins.c Reventazon,Frio,Tarcoles,Terraba,Sixaola,Pacuare,San Carlos,Savegre basins.Forest(10.9%)and the lowest allocation was observed for the Humid Lower Montane(0.8%).Of the three types of incentives that were part of the first phase of the PSA program,the conservation incentives dominated.Fewer incentives for conservation were present in the Humid Lower Montane life zone(0.1%)and more incentives were in the Pluvial Lower Montane life zone(7%).There was a broad distribution of PSA contracts across the country’s nine conservation areas.These units mostly had4–8%of their total area under PSAs contracts,al-though Arenal(10.4%)and Amistad Pacifico(2.8%)dif-fered from the other conservation areas.For these con-servation units,the spatial allocation across the types of PSA contracts also varied.Priorities for the allocation of PSA contracts as a func-tion of hydrologic basins indicated two main trends(Ta-ble2).First,from an urban quality point of view,PSA contracts were allocated more often in basins with little or no importance for drinking water(13%for all other basins vs.6.7%for San Jose’s and three other impor-tant water-supply drainage basins).Second,actual and planned basins with dams received more investment than all other basins(13.4%vs.10.0%,respectively).Our results(Table2)also indicate that there was rel-atively little difference in the intensity of PSA contracts (number of parcels per unit area)relative to their prox-imity to conservation areas,and differed little among lo-cations(7.0%near[<5km]conservation areas vs.6.5% farther from[>5km]conservation areas).Nevertheless, the differences in intensity for areas within and outside planned biological corridors were larger(9.9%in the GRUAS plans and6.3%outside of the GRUAS plans).For all cases(hydrologic basins,conservation locations,planned protected areas)conservation incentives dominated over the reforestation and management incentives.Impact of the PSA Program on DeforestationCosta Rica experienced very low deforestation rates dur-ing the study period.Deforestation rates were estimated to be0.06%/year and0.03%/year for the1986–1997and 1997–2000time periods,respectively.Of the total distri-bution of PSA payments in the country,only7.7%were located within1.0km of all deforestation fronts.Conser-vation payments were higher(3.6%)than reforestation (2.6%)and forest management(1.5%)payments in areas close to deforestation fronts.A PSA payment was only slightly more likely to be near deforestation fronts(1km) than to be farther away from them.Our results also indi-cate that there was no negative significant coefficient for the density of PSA payments(Table3).The first genera-tion of the PSA program did not reduce deforestation rates or total deforestation in Costa Rica(Table3,Fig.2). DiscussionCosta Rica’s PSA program has been a leader in the institu-tionalization of ecosystem investments through the now popular idea of payments for ecosystem services.We doc-umented the spatial distribution of the first phrase of the PSA program(1997–2000)through GIS overlays with var-ious indicators associated with conservation goals.The first phase of PSA contracts were distributed broadly along these dimensions and lacked sharp asymmetries that could indicate focused targeting.The sharpest asym-metry was for planned biological corridors.Furthermore, our econometric results suggest little,if any,impact of the level of PSA contracts on a given area’s rate of deforesta-tion.This has also been suggested by Hartshorn et al. (2005).Conservation Biology Volume21,No.5,2007S ´anchez-Azofeifa et al.Impacts of Ecosystem Services Payments 1171Table 3.Results of regression analysis for Costa Rica ’s 1997–2000deforestation,PSA (payments for ecosystem services)(conservation,reforestation,and management incentives [all]vs.conservation incentives alone),and selected control variables.aIIIIIIconservationconservationconservationallalone all alone all alone Payments −0.0004−0.0040.001−0.0005−0.0003−0.002(0.92)(0.48)(0.83)(0.92)(0.95)(0.68)Constant 0.0040.0040.0160.0160.0110.011(0.00)(0.00)(0.00)(0.00)(0.01)(0.01)Slope−0.0003−0.0003−0.0002−0.0002(0.00)(0.00)(0.00)(0.00)Good life zone b −0.0002−0.00020.00010.0001(0.93)(0.94)(0.95)(0.94)Poor life zone b −0.004−0.004−0.002−0.002(0.02)(0.02)(0.36)(0.37)Distance to San Jose −4e 08−4e 084e 094e 09(0.41)(0.40)(0.93)(0.93)Distance to Limon −3e 08−3e 08−6e 08−6e 08(0.17)(0.17)(0.03)(0.03)Distance to Puntarenas 3e 083e 088e 098e 09(0.38)(0.38)(0.81)(0.81)%cleared c 0.0080.008(0.00)(0.00)Adjusted R 20.000.000.040.040.040.04n202120211892189218871887a Allregressions were ordinary least squares for deforestation probabilities.Coefficient is reported;p value in parentheses.The dependent variable was the deforestation rate during 1997–2000,measured at the level of the 5×5km grid units of observation.The explanatoryvariable of interest was the area receiving PSA payments,again measured by grid.We tried each of the two versions of the payments variable in each of the three sets of columns.Columns II and III added more control variables (i.e.,explanatory variables other than PSA).b See Methods for definition of good and poor life zones.c The fraction of the forest in a grid cell that was cleared before 1997.From 1997through 2000little deforestation took place in Costa Rica (Figs.2&3).Yet some explanatory effects in the regressions were significant nonetheless (Table 3).Slope in particular was consistently and negatively associated with deforestation,whereas prior deforesta-Total Deforestation (ha)50100150200250T o t a l l a n d o n P S A (h a )0200400600800100012001400Figure 2.Relationship between the total area of farms in the PSA (payments for ecosystem services)program and the deforestation rate.The correlation coefficient between these two variables is 0.16.tion was consistently,positively,and significantly asso-ciated with deforestation.Distance to Limon was also significantly associated with deforestation.These results confirm many prior results in the literature (Velkamp et al.1992;S ´a nchez-Azofeifa et al.2002b ;Van LaakeDeforestation Period1960-791979-861986-971997-002000-05D e f o r e s t a t i o n R a t e (%/y r )0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4Figure 3.Changes in deforestation rates between 1960and 2005.Arrow is implementation of the first PSA (payment for ecosystem services)program.Conservation Biology Volume 21,No.5,2007。
the new issues puzzle
The New Issues Puzzle:Testing the Investment-Based ExplanationEvgeny Lyandres ∗Jones Graduate School of ManagementRice UniversityLe Sun †William E.Simon Graduate School of Business AdministrationUniversity of Rochester and GSAMLu Zhang ‡Stephen M.Ross School of BusinessUniversity of Michigan and NBERNovember 2006§AbstractAn investment factor,long in low investment stocks and short in high investment stocks,helpsexplain the new issues puzzle.Adding this factor into standard factor regressions reduces sub-stantially the magnitude of the underperformance following equity and debt offerings and thecomposite issuance effect.The reason is that issuers invest more than nonissuers,and the low-minus-high investment factor earns a significant average return of 0.57%per month.Our evi-dence lends support to the real options theory,in which investment extinguishes risky expansionoptions,and the q -theory of investment,in which firms with low costs of capital invest more.i li1IntroductionEquity and debt issuers underperform matching nonissuers with similar characteristics during the three tofive post-issue years(e.g.,Ritter1991;Loughran and Ritter1995;and Spiess and Affleck-Graves1995,1999).We explore empirically the investment-based hypothesis of this underper-formance.The q-theory of investment and real options theory imply a negative relation between investment and expected returns.If the proceeds from equity and debt issues are used tofinance in-vestment,then issuers should invest more and earn lower average returns than matching nonissuers.Our centralfinding is that a new investment factor,long in low investment stocks and short in high investment stocks,explains a substantial part of the new issues puzzle.Specifically:•We construct the investment factor by buying stocks with the bottom30%investment-to-asset ratios and selling stocks with the top30%investment-to-asset ratios,while using a triple sort to control for size and book-to-market.From January1970to December2005,the investment factor earns an average return of0.57%per month(t-statistic=7.13).•Most importantly,adding the investment factor into standard factor regressions reduces the magnitude of the underperformance for new equity issues portfolios.The equally-weighted portfolio offirms that have conducted seasoned equity offerings(SEOs)in the prior36months earns an alpha of−0.41%per month(t-statistic=−2.43).Adding the investment factor makes the CAPM alpha insignificant and reduces its magnitude by82%to−0.07%per month.The equally-weighted portfolio offirms that have conducted initial public offerings(IPOs)in the prior36months earn an alpha of−0.71%per month(t-statistic=−2.60).Adding the investment factor makes the CAPM alpha insignificant and reduces its magnitude by59%to −0.29%.The results from the Fama-French(1993)model are quantitatively similar.•The investment factor also helps explain the underperformance following debt offerings.The equally-weighted portfolio offirms that have conducted convertible debt offerings in the prior 36months earn an alpha of−0.63%per month(t-statistic=−4.20).Adding the invest-ment factor makes reduces the CAPM alpha by46%in magnitude to−0.34%,albeit still significant(t-statistic=−2.04).The underperformance following straight debt offerings is largely insignificant in our sample.The only exception is the equally-weighted alpha from the Fama-French(1993)model,−0.26%per month(t-statistic=−2.35).Controlling for the investment factor makes the alpha weakly positive,0.029%per month(t-statistic=0.27).•The results from using buy-and-hold abnormal returns(BHARs)are largely consistent with factor regressions.The BHARs of the SEO portfolio from matching on size and book-to-market over thefirst two and three post-issue years are−21.9%and−34.6%,respectively.Matching further on investment-to-asset ratios reduces the BHARs to−16.1%and−25.2%, respectively,about26%drop in magnitude.The BHARs of the IPO portfolio from matching on size and book-to-market are significantly negative after about six post-issue months,and the BHARs of the convertible debt portfolio are significantly negative after about18post-issue months.Matching on investment-to-asset makes this underperformance largely insignificant.•The investment factor also explains part of Daniel and Titman’s(2006)finding.A zero-cost portfolio that buys stocks in the bottom30%and sells stocks in the top30%of their composite equity issuance measure earns an equally-weighted alpha of−0.56%per month (t-statistic=−4.38)from the CAPM.Adding the investment factor reduces the alpha to −0.40%(t-statistic=−3.18),a drop in magnitude of28%.The value-weighted alpha from the Fama-French(1993)model is−0.36%per month(t-statistic=−3.57),and it drops by 57%in magnitude to−0.16%(t-statistic=−1.49)when we include the investment factor.Our evidence lends support to the investment-based explanation of the new issues puzzle(e.g., Zhang2005;Carlson,Fisher,and Giammarino2006).In their real options model,Carlson et al. argue thatfirms have expansion options and assets in place prior to equity issuance.This compo-sition is levered and risky.If real investment isfinanced by equity,then risk and expected returns must decrease because investment extinguishes the risky expansion options.2Inspired by the negative relation between real investment and expected returnsfirst derived by Cochrane(1991),Zhang(2005)argues that investment is likely to be the main driving force of the new issues puzzle.Intuitively,real investment increases with the net present values(NPVs)of new projects(e.g.,Brealey,Myers,and Allen2006,chapter6).The NPVs of new projects are inversely related to their costs of capital or expected returns,controlling for their expected cashflows.If the costs of capital are high,then the NPVs are low,giving rise to low investment.If the costs of capital are low,then the NPVs are high,giving rise to high investment.The average costs of equity forfirms that take many new projects are reduced by the low costs of capital for the new projects.Further,firms’balance-sheet constraint implies that the sources of funds must equal the uses of funds.Therefore,firms raising capital are likely to invest more and earn lower expected returns,andfirms distributing capital are likely to invest less and earn higher expected returns.Consistent with this theoretical prediction,we document that issuers invest more than matching nonissuers.The investment-to-asset spread between issuers and nonissuers is the highest in the IPO sample,followed by the SEO and convertible debt sample,and is the lowest in the straight debt sample.The relative magnitudes of the investment-to-asset spreads are consistent with the relative magnitudes of the underperformance across the four samples.We alsofind that high composite issuancefirms invest more than low composite issuancefirms.Our paper brings the insights from the literature on investment-based asset pricing to the liter-ature on the new issues puzzle.Our use of investment-to-asset as a key matching characteristic is motivated by the partial equilibrium models of Cochrane(1991,1996)and Berk,Green,and Naik (1999).Our use of the investment factor as a common factor of stock returns is motivated by the general equilibrium models of Gala(2005)and P´a stor and Veronesi(2005a,b).Several papers document the negative relation between investment and average returns.Cochrane (1991)is among thefirst to show this relation in the time series.Titman,Wei,and Xie(2004) and Cooper,Gulen,and Schill(2006)find a similar relation in the cross section but interpret the evidence as investors underreacting to overinvestment.Xing(2005)shows that real investment3helps explain the value effect.Anderson and Garcia-Feij´o o(2006)find that investment growth classifiesfirms into size and book-to-market portfolios.Anderson and Garcia-Feij´o o also anticipate our analysis:“Many studies examine long-run returns tofirms subsequent to new security offerings and report negative abnormal returns.Benchmarking long-run returns to changes in investment spending that may coincide withfinancing events might attenuate abnormal returns(p.191).”Brav and Gompers(1997)and Brav,Geczy,and Gompers(2000)document that equity issuers are concentrated among small-growthfirms,and suggest that their underperformance reflects the Fama-French(1993)size and book-to-market factors.Our evidence supports this argument because both equity issuers and small-growthfirms invest more than other types offirms.We suggest that real investment is likely to be the common link and the more fundamental driving force of their underperformance.Eckbo,Masulis,and Norli(2000)show that a six-factor model can explain the new issues puzzle,but we show that controlling for the investment factor is often sufficient.The rest of the paper is organized as follows.Section2develops the testable hypothesis.Section 3describes our data.Section4reports our empirical results,and Section5concludes.2Hypothesis DevelopmentThe investment-based explanation of the new issues puzzle argues that the post-issue underperfor-mance arises from the negative relation between real investment and expected returns.First,the relation between real investment and expected returns is negative.Second,iffirms issue new equity and debt tofinance real investment,then issuers should earn lower expected returns than nonissuers.2.1Theoretical MotivationFigure1illustrates the negative relation between real investment and expected returns,a central prediction in recent theoretical literature on investment-based asset pricing.Cochrane(1991,1996) derives the negative investment-return relation from the q theory of investment.In his models,firms invest more when their marginal q—the net present value of future cashflows generated from4one additional unit of capital—is high.Controlling for expected cashflows,a high marginal q is associated with a low cost of capital.In the real options model of Berk,Green,and Naik(1999),firms invest more when they have access to many low risk projects.Investing in these projects lowersfirm level risk and expected returns.In Carlson,Fisher,and Giammarino(2004),expansion options are riskier than assets in place.Real investment transforms riskier expansion options into less risky assets in place,thereby reducing risk and expected returns.1Figure1:The Investment-Based Explanation of the New Issues PuzzleTExpected return1The basic mechanisms in the real options and the q-theory models are similar because the two approaches are equivalent(e.g.,Abel,Dixit,Eberly,and Pindyck1996).5Gala(2005)constructs a general equilibrium production economy with heterogeneousfirms.In his model,afirm’s ability to provide consumption insurance depends on its ability to mitigate ag-gregate business cycle shocks through capital investment.In bad times,low investment,valuefirms want to disinvest and sell offtheir capital stocks.But they are prevented from doing so because of binding irreversibility constraints.Thesefirms thus earn high expected returns because their returns covary more with economic downturns.In contrast,in the face of negative shocks,high investment, growthfirms can easily lower their positive investment without facing the irreversibility constraints. Thesefirms thus earn low expected returns as they provide consumption insurance to investors.P´a stor and Veronesi(2005a)develop a general equilibrium model of optimal timing of initial public offerings,in which IPO waves are partially caused by declines in expected market returns.In their model,entrepreneurs choose the optimal timing of taking their privatefirms public,and then immediately investing part of the equity proceeds.Entrepreneurs prefer to postpone their IPOs until favorable market conditions such as low expected market return and high expected aggregate profitability.As a result,real investment of IPOfirms can serve as a state variable:high investment suggests low expected market returns,high aggregate profitability,or both.P´a stor and Veronesi(2005b)develop a general equilibrium model in which returns offirms investing in new technologies can define new systematic factors.Their model has two sectors:the “new economy”and the“old economy.”The old economy implements existing technologies on a large scale and its output determines a representative agent’s terminal wealth.The new economy implements the new technology on a small scale that does not affect the terminal wealth.The agent optimally chooses to experiment with the new technology on a small scale to learn about its unobservable productivity.If the productivity turns out to be sufficiently high,the new technology is adopted on a large scale.The nature of the risk associated with new technologies changes over time.The risk is initially idiosyncratic because of the small scale of production.Once adopted on a large scale,the risk becomes systematic because the new economy now affects the terminal wealth.6Figure1also shows that issuers are located at the right end of the curve,where expected re-turns are low,and nonissuers are located at the left end of the curve,where expected returns are high.Intuitively,the balance-sheet constraint requires that the uses of funds must equal the sources of funds,implying that issuers are likely to invest more than nonissuers.Based on this insight, Zhang(2005)and Carlson,Fisher,and Giammarino(2006)argue that SEOfirms must earn lower expected returns than matching nonissuers.The same intuition also applies to the underperfor-mance following IPOs(e.g.,Ritter1991)and convertible and straight debt offerings(e.g.,Spiess and Affleck-Graves1999),as well as the composite issuance effect(e.g.,Daniel and Titman2006).The investment-based explanation of the new issues puzzle,and more generally,the negative investment-return relation are conditional on a given level of profitability.High investment can be caused not only by low costs of capital,but also by high expected cashflows(profitability). More profitablefirms earn higher average returns than less profitablefirms(e.g.,Piotroski2000; Fama and French2006).Our results show that the difference in investment between issuers and nonissuers,rather than the difference in profitability,drives the new issues puzzle.2.2Empirical DesignOur choice of empirical methods echoes the theme of the theoretical motivation by complementing the use of a zero-cost low-minus-high investment factor as a common factor of stock returns and the use of investment as a matching characteristic.Motivated by the partial equilibrium models(e.g.,Cochrane1991;Berk,Green,and Naik1999), we examine the performance of security issuers relative to matchingfirms with similar characteris-tics including prior investment-to-asset ratios.The theoretical prior is that matching on investment should reduce the magnitude of buy-and-hold abnormal returns documented in previous studies(in which investment is not one of the control characteristics).Motivated by the general equilibrium models(e.g.,Gala2005;P´a stor and Veronesi2005a,b),we augment standard factor regressions with the investment factor constructed by sortingfirms on their investment-to-asset ratios.The7theoretical prior is that doing so should reduce the magnitude of the post-issue underperformance.Following Fama and French(1993,1996),we interpret the investment factor as a common fac-tor.While Fama and French go further and interpret their similarly constructed SMB and HML factors as risk factors motivated from ICAPM or APT,we do not take a stance on the risk inter-pretation of our investment factor.Arguments supporting the risk interpretation are clear.None of the theoretical papers that we use to motivate the investment factor assumes any form of over-and under-reaction.And unlike size and book-to-market,investment-to-asset does not involve the market value of equity,and is less likely to be affected by mispricing,at least directly.However,general equilibrium models with behavioral biases(e.g.,Barberis,Huang,and Santos 2001)can also motivate the investment factor.2Moreover,investor sentiment can presumably affect investment policy through shareholder discount rates(e.g.,Polk and Sapienza2006).Perhaps more importantly,covariance-based and characteristic-based explanations of the average-return variations are not mutually exclusive,in contrast to the position taken by Daniel and Titman(1997) and Davis,Fama,and French(2000).Under certain conditions,there exists a one-to-one mapping between covariances and characteristics,implying that they can both serve as sufficient statistics for expected returns(e.g.,Zhang2005).Our goal is thus to search for a theoretically motivated and empirically parsimonious factor specification that can explain anomalies in asset pricing tests. 3DataWe examine four types of security offerings:IPOs,SEOs,convertible debt issues,and straight debt issues.All four samples are obtained from Thomson Financial’s SDC database.The samples of the IPOs,SEOs,and convertible debt offerings are from1970to2005.Due to data availability,the sample of the straight debt offerings is from1983to2005.We obtain monthly returns from the Center for Research in Security Prices(CRSP).The monthly returns of Fama and French’s(1993)three factors and the risk-free rate are from Kenneth French’s website.Accounting information is from the COMPUSTAT Annual Industrial Files.Our sample selection largely follows previous studies.3To be included in a sample,a security offering must be performed by a U.S.firm that has returns on CRSP at some point during the three post-issuance years.We exclude unit offerings and secondary offerings of SEOs,in which new shares are not issued.For SEOs,our results are also robust to the exclusion of mixed offerings.4We also exclude equity and debt offerings offirms that trade on exchanges other than NYSE,AMEX, and NASDAQ.Similar to Brav,Geczy,and Gompers(2000)and Eckbo,Masulis,and Norli(2000), but different from Loughran and Ritter(1995)and Spiess and Affleck-Graves(1995,1999),we include utilities in our sample.Following Loughran and Ritter,we define utilities asfirms with SIC codes ranging between4,910and4,949.Excluding utilities does not materially impact our results,likely because the fraction of utilities in each sample is small:6%for SEOs,0.4%for IPOs, 2%for convertible debt issues,and8%for straight debt issues.Further,manyfirms issue multiple tranches of debt on the same date.We deal with this issue by aggregating the amount issued on a given day but separating straight and convertible debt issues.Table1reports for each of the four samples the number of offerings for each year,the number of offerings by non-utilities,and the number of offerings with valid data on size,book-to-market,and investment-to-asset ratio.These characteristics are used to select matching nonissuers.Our samples include10,084SEOs,7,732IPOs,1,215convertible debt offerings,and2,969straight debt offerings. Because of the long sample period(22years for straight debt offerings and36years for all others), our samples are among the largest in the literature.For comparison,Eckbo,Masulis,and Norli’s (2000)sample includes4,766SEOs,Loughran and Ritter’s(1995)sample consists of3,702SEOs and 4,753IPOs,and Brav,Geczy,and Gompers’s(2000)sample includes4,526SEOs and4,622IPOs.Inaddition,Spiess and Affleck-Graves’s(1995)sample consists of1,247SEOs,and Spiess and Affleck-Graves’s(1999)samples contain1,557straight debt offerings and672convertible debt offerings.To study the frequency distribution of issuers across size and book-to-market quintiles,we as-sign issuers to quintiles using the breakpoints from Kenneth French’s website.Forfirms that have issued in the period from July of year t to June of year t+1,we determine the size and book-to-market quintiles at thefiscal yearend of calendar year t−1.If size or book-to-market is missing at that time(frequently in the IPO sample),we use thefirst available size and book-to-market if the available date is no later than12months after the offering(24months for IPOs).We measure the market value as the share price at the end of June times shares outstanding. Book equity is stockholder’s equity(item216)minus preferred stock plus balance sheet deferred taxes and investment tax credit(item35)if available,minus post-retirement benefit asset(item330) if available.If stockholder’s equity is missing,we use common equity(item60)plus preferred stock par value(item130).If these variables are missing,we use book assets(item6)less liabilities(item 181).Preferred stock is preferred stock liquidating value(item10),or preferred stock redemption value(item56),or preferred stock par value(item130)in that order of availability.To compute the book-to-market equity,we use December closing price times number of shares outstanding.Table2presents the frequency distribution of issuingfirms and the relative amount of capital raised in the offerings.From the left four panels,smallfirms are more likely than largefirms to issue equity and convertible debt,but are less likely to issue straight debt.Growthfirms are more likely than valuefirms to issue equity and convertible debt,and to a lesser extent,straight debt. From Panel A,small-growthfirms perform19%of SEOs,while big-valuefirms account for only 0.52%of SEOs.The spread in issuing frequency is even wider for IPOs:32%of IPOs are conducted by small-growthfirms,in contrast to only0.11%by big-valuefirms.The frequency distribution of the convertible debt offerings sample is similar to that of the SEO sample.12%of the convertible debt issues are performed by small-growthfirms,in contrast to only0.58%undertaken by big-value firms.Prior studies show that small-growthfirms have higher investment-to-asset ratios than other10firms(e.g.,Xing2005;Anderson and Garcia-Feijoo2006).Our evidence that small-growthfirms are also the most frequent equity and convertible debt issuers is therefore suggestive of the role of real investment in explaining the underperformance following the offerings.5The right four panels of Table2report the median new issue-to-asset ratios of issuers by size and book-to-market quintiles.We measure the new issue-to-asset ratio as the proceeds of a new issue from SDC divided by the book value of assets at thefiscal yearend preceding an SEO or convertible or straight debt offering.Because of data limitations,we use the book value of assets at thefiscal yearend of an IPO.The distribution of the median new issue-to-asset across size and book-to-market quintiles is similar to the frequency distribution reported in the left panels of the table.Not only small-growthfirms issue securities much more frequently than big-valuefirms,but they also issue much more as a percentage of their book assets.From Panel A,the median new seasoned equity-to-asset ratio of small-growthfirms is0.89.In contrast,the median ratio of big-valuefirms is only 0.01.Dispersions of similar magnitudes are also evident in the convertible and straight debt samples (Panels C and D).From Panel B,the IPO sample displays an even wider spread:the median new equity-to-asset ratio for small-growthfirms is1.75,much higher than that for big-valuefirms,0.05. 4Empirical ResultsWe study the role of investment in driving the new issues puzzle using factor regressions(Section 4.1)and buy-and-holding abnormal returns(Section4.2).Section4.3examines the investment and profitability behavior for issuers and matching nonissuers.Inspired by Daniel and Titman(2006), Section4.4studies the link between investment and the returns of composite issuance portfolios.4.1Factor RegressionsEvidence on the New Issues PuzzleWe measure the post-issue underperformance as Jensen’s alphas in factor regressions.Lyon,Barber and Tsai(1999)argue that factor regressions are one of the two methods that yield well-specifiedtest statistics.(The other approach is Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Returns,see Section4.2.) We use the CAPM and the Fama and French(1993)three-factor model.The dependent variables in the factor regressions are the new issues portfolio returns in excess of the one-month Treasury bill rate.The new issues portfolios,including the SEO,IPO,convertible debt,and straight debt portfolios,consist of allfirms that have issued seasoned equity,gone public,issued convertible debt, and issued straight debt in the past36months,respectively.6Loughran and Ritter(2000)argue that the power of the tests can be increased if we weight eachfirm equally,instead of weighting each period equally.Following Spiess and Affleck-Graves(1999),we thus estimate factor regressions using Weighted Least Squares(WLS),where the weight of each month corresponds to the number of eventfirms having non-missing returns during that month.7Table3reports strong evidence of underperformance following equity issuance(Panels A and B).From Panel A,the equally-weighted alpha from the CAPM regression of the SEO portfolio is −0.41%per month(t-statistic=−2.43),and that from the Fama-French(1993)model is−0.39% per month(t-statistic=−3.52).The value-weighted alphas are similar in magnitude.From Panel B,the post-issue underperformance of IPOs from the CAPM is larger in magnitude than that of SEOs.The equally-weighted and value-weighted CAPM alphas of the IPO portfolio are−0.71% and−0.82%per month with t-statistics−2.60and−3.03,respectively.The alphas of the IPO portfolios from the Fama-French model are close to those of the SEO portfolios.Table3also reports reliable evidence of post-issue underperformance of convertible debt issuers, but not of straight debt issuers(Panels C and D).Convertible debt issuers show comparable under-performance to equity issuers.The convertible debt portfolio earns equally-weighted alphas from the CAPM and the Fama-French(1993)model of−0.63%and−0.54%per month,respectively. Both have t-statistics above four.The value-weighted alphas are smaller in magnitude,−0.44% and−0.26%,but still significant(t-statistics−3.38and−2.00),respectively.In contrast,only the equally-weighted alpha from the Fama-French model,−0.26%,is significant for the straight debtportfolio(t-statistic=−2.35).All the other alphas are insignificantly different from zero.Our evidence that convertible debt issuers display higher post-issue underperformance than straight debt issuers is consistent with Spiess and Affleck-Graves(1999).The Investment FactorAs a direct test of the investment hypothesis,we augment traditional factor models with a common factor based on real investment.We construct the investment factor as the zero-cost portfolio from buying stocks with the lowest30%investment-to-asset ratios and selling stocks with the highest 30%investment-to-asset ratios,while controlling for size and book-to-market.We measure investment-to-asset as the annual change in gross property,plant,and equipment (COMPUSTAT annual item7)plus the annual change in inventories(item3)divided by the lagged book value of assets(item6).We use property,plant,and equipment to measure real investment in long-lived assets used in operations over many years such as buildings,machinery,furniture, computers,and other equipment.We use inventories to measure real investment in short-lived assets used in a normal operating cycle such as merchandise,raw materials,supplies,and work in process.We do a triple sort on size,book-to-market,and investment-to-asset`a la Fama and French (1993).We independently sort stocks in each June on size,book-to-market,and investment-to-asset into three groups,the top30%,the medium40%,and the bottom30%.By taking intersections of these nine portfolios,we classify stocks into27portfolios.The investment factor,denoted INV, is defined as the average return of the nine low investment-to-asset portfolios minus the average return of the nine high investment-to-asset portfolios.8In untabulated results,the investment factor earns an average return of0.57%per month (t-statistic=7.13)from January1970to December2005.This average return is economically meaningful.For comparison,the average market excess return over the same period is0.50%per month(t-statistic=2.28)and the average HML return is0.48%per month(t-statistic=3.24).。
DEVICE FOR EVALUATION OF INDICES OF THE THERMAL
InternationalCarpathian ControlConference ICCC’ 2002MALENOVICE,CZECH REPUBLICMay 27-30, 2002 DEVICE FOR EVALUATION OF INDICES OF THE THERMALCOMFORTFrantišek HRUŠKAInstitute of Information Technologies,Thomas Bata University in Zlin,Zlín, Czech Republic, hruska@ft.utb.czAbstract: The determination of the thermal comfort indices needs the evaluating devices. The physical measured parameters of the milieu input in this device. We measure air temperature of the area, temperature of the surfaces of walls, floor and the ceiling –medium radiant temperature, air flow velocity and air moisture. Other parameters are the date of his clothes and his physical activity. Outputs of this device are the indexes of thermal comfort for the reviewing and the evaluation of the interiors. In this paper we present this device as the model and the evaluation of algorithm.Key words: measurement, housing environment, air temperature, medium radiant temperature, air moisture, airflow, index of thermal comfort.1 IntroductionThe thermal comfort of man during his stay in a residential or working environment is influenced mainly by the many parameters. They are: the sort of his clothes, the physical activity of man and the physical parameters of the indoor, especially the air temperature of the area, the temperature of the surfaces of walls, floor and the ceiling, the air flow velocity and the air moisture. The thermal comfort according to hygienic regulations is given by the condition the thermal balance between man and indoor environment. The heat distribution is attained according to air temperature and the surface temperature of the indoor space, air moisture and the air flow velocity in the area. If the factors influencing the thermal environment have been assessed or measured the thermal ease of a man can be evaluated as the PMV indicator (predicted mean vote). The further parameter - PPD indicator (predicted percentage of dissatisfied) can be derived from the PMV. Molestation by draughts can be expressed by %-share of people, that are predicted to be troubled by draught according to the DR indicator – draught rating.57We built up a model for solving of the problem of thermal comfort showed on figure 1. This model has the controlled system on the first part and the model of thermal comfort on the second part. The controlled system is the indoor environment in interiors. The controlled system is characterised energy inputs and perturbance inputs. The energy inputs are the actor inputs: convective warmth power - Q k (W), radiant warmth power – Q r (W), latent warmth power from ventilation air - Q v (W) and its moisture flow - M w (kg/s). The perturbance inputs are: temperature of outside air – t a,e(°C), sun radiant intensity – I r,e (W/m2), speed of outside airflow – v a,e (m/s), moisture of outside air – p a,e (Pa), latent therm energy - Q d,i (W) and moisture flow from inside technology - M w,i (kg/s). The outputs are the physical parameters of the indoor: the temperature of inside air – t a,i(°C), the medium radiant temperature – t r,i(°C), the speed of airflow – v a,i (m/s) and the moisture of air – p a,i(Pa).The model of thermal comfort is established on the warmth balance of the flow between man and indoor enviroment. The warmth change has flow structure of convention, radiation, respiration and evaporation. The energy flow is sensible on the output parameters of the controlled system and on the physical activity of the man (warmth production of organism) - Q mw (W)and thermal resistance of his cloths - I c (m2 K/W). The outputs of model are the indexes of thermal comfort: Predicted Mean Vote – PMV, Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied – PPD and Draught Rating - DR.Figure 1. Model of thermal comfort2 Measuring of physical parametersThe physical parameters for evaluation of thermal comfort in housing environment are primary and derived [ČSN ISO 7726:1993]. The primary physical parameters feature the particular factor of the inside interior abstractedly. There are this parameters: air temperature, medium radiant temperature and asymmetry of radiant temperature, air moisture and airflow. The following primary parameters are practically unmeasured and they are: thermal resistant of dresses, energy issue and used outside work. They are estimated from tables.58That derived physical parameters are used in the practice but did not recommend to use according to standard [ČSN ISO 7726:1993]. There are the most used derived parameters: temperature of naturally ventilated wet thermometer, temperature of black (spherical) thermometer or temperature wet and resultant (spherical) thermometer WBGT.The [ČSN ISO 7726:1993] determines the requirements for the measuring device of primary parameters. It conditions scale and accuracy of measurement and time of stabilization.We can use industrial technical equipment for measuring of primary physical parameters in indoors. But can only with exception of measuring of medium radiation temperature. The medium radiation temperature is new and specifically parameter. The sensors for contactless methods can´t measure this parameter well. Therefore we have done research this problem and develop measuring device. The results are demonstrated in[HRUŠKA, F. 2000a, 2001b, 2001f].3 Model of thermal comfort in interiorThe model of thermal comfort used in the second part of figure 1 calculates the thermal comfort indexes by the equations of energy flow between man and indoor environment. Some methods is known for that calculation in literature. We have elected a method in [ČSN EN ISO 7730:1997]. This method has full mathematical description of all relations.The calculation of index PMV use the formula:{}321036,0)()028,0303,0(U U U W M e PMV M +++−+=−,(1) where: [][]15,58)(42,0)(99,6573300305,01−−−−−−−=W M p W M U a (2))5867(.000017,02a p M U −−=(3) [])(.)273()273(..0000000396,0)34(.0014,0443cl c cl r cl cl a t t h f t t f t M U −−+−+−−−=a(4)[]{})(.)273()273(..0000000396,0).(028,07,3544cl t t h f t t f I W M t −++−+−−−=a cl c cl r cl cl cl(5) 25,0)(38,2a cl c t t h −= pro ar c v h .1,12> or(6) ar c v h .1,12= pro h(7) 25,0)(38,2a cl c t t −>cl cl I f .290,11+= pro or(8) W K m I cl /078,02≤cl cl I f .645,005,1+= pro (9)W K m I cl /078,02>and M - energy production of organism (W/m 2), W- mechanical power of organism (W/m 2), - proportion of dressed part of organism (-), - warmth resistance of cloth (m cl f cl I 2 K/W), t a - temperature of inside air (°C), r t - medium radiant temperature (°C), v ar - relative speed of inside airflow (m/s), p a - partial pressure of water steams (Pa), h c - coefficient of convection warmth flow (W/m 2 K), t cl - temperature of surface of cloth (°C).The formulas from (1) to (9) are significant for the index PMW in range from –2 a +2. The norm [ČSN EN ISO 7730:1997] further recommended the range of input parameters: 59M = 46 až 232 W/m 2, = 0 až 0,310 m cl I 2 K/W, t a = 10 až 30 °C, r t = 10 až 40 °C, v ar = 0 až 1 m/s .The second index: Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied – PPD has a formula:5.95100U e PPD −−=,(10) where is: U (11)245.2179,0.03353,0PMV PMV +=Draught is flow of air round body and gives negative feels from cooling of body. Draught rating index - DR is a expression of percentage of dissatisfied for draught and is defined as formula:)14,3..37,0.()05,0)(34(62,0+−−=u a T v v t DR (12)where: t a- temperature of local air (°C), v – local medium speed of airflow (m/s), T u – local intensity of turbulence (%).We have prepared the software program for calculating the formulas from (1) to (9) and we have demonstrated it in [HRUŠKA, F. 2001,f]. We verify this model in MATLAB-Figure 2. MATLAB´s model of thermal comfort60We can need the developed software in practical device for calculation of indexes. This device is resulting of development our work. In the concrete the device is single purpose microcomputer with inputs of parameters of indoor, input of physical activity of man (warmth production of organism) and input of thermal resistance of cloths. Outputs are the indexes PMV, PPD, DR. Auxiliary output is parameter roz used for the automation tasks. The proposal of control structure is designed according to scheme in figure 3. There is used the model of evaluation device there.Figure 3. The model of control system for indoor environment4 ConclusionThe evaluation device of indexes of thermal comfort is single purpose microcomputer. It uses the special construction and the software calculating the indexes according to equation from (1) to (12).The output indexes of the device will be used by controlling of indoor parameters according to thermal comfort and by monitoring of quality of indoor environment too. The device is ground base for further solving the problem of control of environment parameters in interiors.The results of research and develop are published in [HRUŠKA, F. 2000b, 2000c, 2001a, 2001c, 2001d, 2001e] too.61ReferencesČSN ISO 7726:1993. Tepelné prostředí. Přístroje a metody měření fyzikálních veličin.(Thermal environments. Instruments and methods for measuring physical quantities.) Prague: CNI, September 1993.ČSN EN ISO 7730:1997. Mírné tepelné prostředí- Stanovení ukazatelů PMV a PPD.(Moderate thermal environments – Determination of the PMV and PPD indices and specification of the conditions for thermal comfort.) Prague: CNI, March 1997.HRUŠKA,F.2000,a. Measurement of Physical Values of the Thermal Milieu. In.Proceedings the 4th International Scientific-Technical Conference …PROCESS CONTROL 2000. Kouty nad Desnou: University of Pardubice, 2000, pp.95. ISBN 80-7194-271-5.HRUŠKA,F.2000,b. Regulace a řízení techniky prostředí. (Control of environment equipment.) In. Zborník 4. medzinárodnej konferencie …RIADENIE V ENERGETIKE.Bratislava: Slovenská technická universita, Bratislava, 2000, p. 324-329. ISBN 80-227-1354-6.HRUŠKA,F.2000,c. New Approach for the Thermal Comfort Management of a Man. The 11th International DAAAM Symposium. Opatija, Croatia: Universita of Rijeka, 2000, p.191-192. ISBN 3-901509-13-5.HRUŠKA,F.2001,a. Automatizace udržování prostředí podle tepelné pohody. (Automation of environment equipment according to thermal comfort.) In: Sborník přednášek konference Pragoregula 2001. Praha: EL-EXPO 2001,p. 59-59. ISBN 80-902131-6-6. HRUŠKA,F. 2001,b. Zapojení pro měření střední radiační teploty a její asymetrie.(Connexion of measuring of medium radiant temperature and its asymmetry.) Author: Hruška František. Int.Cl6 G01 K 3/00, F24 F 11/00. Czech Republic. Utility model No.10837HRUŠKA,F. 2001,c. Zapojení jednotky pro vyhodnocování ukazatele tepelné pohody.(Connexion of equipment for evaluation of thermal comfort index.) Author: Hruška František. Int.Cl6 G01 K 3/00, G01 D 21/02. Czech Republic. Utility model No. 10836 HRUŠKA,F. 2001,d. Zapojení jednotky pro vyhodnocování stupně obtěžování průvanem.(Connexion of equipment for evaluation of draught range index.) Author: Hruška František. Int.Cl6 G01 K 3/00, G01 D 21/02, F24 F 11/00. Czech Republic. Utility model No. 10835HRUŠKA,F. 2001,e. Zapojení jednotky pro optimální regulaci prostředí podle tepelné pohody. (Connexion of equipment for optimal control according to thermal comfort index.)Author: Hruška František. Int.Cl6 G01 K 3/02, F24 F 11/02, G01 D 21/00.Czech Republic. Utility model No. 10834.HRUŠKA, F. 2001,f. Automatizace techniky prostředí podle tepelné pohody člověka.(Automation of environment equipment according to thermal comfort.) Dissertation work. Zlín: Thomas Bata University in Zlin, 2001, 136 pp.62。
心理学专业英文词汇【C】
C factor C 因素C fibre C 纤维C light source C 光源C reaction C 反应C score C 分数C value C 值CA 实足年龄cacesthesia 感觉异常cachectic 恶病质的cachexia 恶病质cachexia 衰弱期cachinnate 狂笑cachinnation 痴笑cacodemonomania 魔附妄想cacoepy 发音不准cacoethes operandi 手术癖cacogenesis 畸形cacogenesis 劣生cacogenic 种族退化的cacogenics 劣生学cacogenics 种族退化学cacogeusia 恶味cacography 拼写错误cacology 发音不准cacoplastic 成形不良的cacoplastic 构造异常的cacosmia 恶臭cacothenics 种族衰退cacothymia 心情恶劣cacotrophia 营养不良cacotrophy 营养不良CAD 计算机辅助设计caddish 缺乏教养的cadger 乞丐caducity 暂时性caecitas 盲caecum vestibulare 前庭盲端cafeteria feeding 自选食cafeteria feeding 自助式喂儿法caffeine 咖啡因caffeinism 咖啡因中毒cage 笼cage apparatus 笼状仪器CAI 计算机辅助教学Cain complex 凯因情结Cain complex 兄弟敌对情结cainotophobia 新事恐怖症Cain Levine Social Competency Scale 凯莱二氏社会能力量表cairophobia 临场恐怖症caitiff 卑鄙的人Cajal method 卡捷法cake of custom 反变现象CAL 计算机辅助学习calcarine fissure 距状裂calcium pump 钙棒calculate 计算calculated error 计算误差calculated value 计算值calculating card 计算卡片calculating chart 计算图calculating data 计算数据calculating inspection 计算检查calculating machine 计算机calculating sorting machine 分类计算机calculation 计算calculation chart 计算图calculative skill 计算技能calculative strategy 计算策略calculus 演算calculus of observation 观测演算calculus of proposition 命题演算calf love 雏恋calibration 刻度calibration 校准calibration instrument 校准仪器California Achievement Tests 加州成就测验California Infant Scale 加州婴儿量表California Occupational Preference Survey 加州职业偏好调查表California Personality Inventory 加州人格量表California Psychological Inventory 加州心理测验量表California Test of Mental Maturity 加州心理成熟测验California Test of Personality 加州人格测验caliper 测径器call 喊叫callback 复查calligraphy 笔迹calling 感召calling sequence 引入序列callipedia 美婴欲callomania 美貌狂callosal apraxia 胼胝体运用不能callosum 胼胝体calm type 沉静型calmative 镇静的caloric nystagmus 温度性眼震calorie 卡(热量单位）caloriemeter 热量计calque 仿照calvaria 颅盖calvarium 颅盖Cal 大卡CAM 计算机辅助制造camaraderie 同志感camera lucida 投影描图器camera obscure 暗箱camouflage 伪装cAMP 环 磷酸腺苷Campbell chart 坎贝尔图campimeter 视野测量器Canadian Psychological Association 加拿大心理学会canalis facialis 面神经管canalis semicircularis anterior 前半规管canalis semicircularis anterior 上半规管canalis semicircularis posterior 后半规管canalis semicircularis posterior 下半规管canalization 定型化canalization 疏引作用cancel 删去cancellation 废除cancellation 划消cancellation ability 消字能力cancellation method 划消法cancellation test 划消测验cancer 癌症cancer cells 癌细胞cancerogenic 致癌的cancerophobia 癌症恐怖症candela 坎德拉candela per square foot 坎每平方英尺candela per square meter 坎每平方米candid 公正的candle 烛candle power 烛光candle problem 腊烛问题candor 坦率canine madness 狂犬病cannabiomania 大麻癖cannabis 大麻cannabism 大麻依赖cannabism 大麻中毒canned data 存储的信息cannibalism 同类相残canniness 精明Cannon emergency function 嘉农应急机能Cannon theory of emotion 嘉龙情绪理论Cannon s theory 嘉农氏理论Cannon Bard theory of emotion 嘉龙 巴特情绪说canon 准则canonic form 典型形式canonical analysis 双复式分析canonical correlation 双复式相关canonical correlation analysis 典型相关分析canonical correlation coefficient 典型相关系数canonical order 双复式次序canonist 经院派canvasser 推销员CAPcapability 能力capacitation 获得能力capacity 能力capacity 容量capacity of bearing legal responsibility 法律责任能力capacity of resisting disturbance 抗干扰能力capacity test 能量测验Capgras syndrome 卡氏综合症capillarectasia 毛细管扩张capillaritis 毛细管炎capillary 毛细管caprice 任性caprice 突发capsicism 辣椒癖capsula auditus 耳软骨囊capsula externa 外囊capsula interna 内囊capsule 囊caption 题目captious 吹毛求疵的captivate 迷住captivation 吸引力captivator 有吸引力的人captive 被控制的capture 引起注意captured audience 被吸引的听众carbachol 碳酰胆碱carbamate 氨基甲酸酯carbamic acid 氨基甲酸carbon dioxide 二氧化碳carbon monoxide 一氧化碳carbon monoxide poisoning 一氧化碳中毒carcinogen 致癌物carcinoma 癌carcinomatosis 癌病carcinophobia 恐癌症card 卡片card index 卡片索引card reader 卡片读出器cardiac 心脏的cardiac activity 心博cardiac center 心博中枢cardiac cost 心脏的负担cardiac cycle 心博周期cardiac efficiency 心效率cardiac impulse 心冲动cardiac index 心脏指标cardiac neurosis 心脏神经官能症cardiac output 心脏输出量cardiac plexus 心神经丛cardiac rate 心率cardiac reflex 心反射cardiac rhythm 心节律cardiac wave 心波cardiagraphy 心动描记法cardiant 心兴奋药cardiasthenia 心衰弱cardiataxia 心博失调cardinal disposition 首要性格cardinal point 基点cardinal points reflex 基本方位反射cardinal trait 首要特质cardinal utility 基数效用cardiochronograph 心脏计时器cardiocinetic 促心动的cardiocybernetics 心脏控制论cardioexcitatory 兴奋心脏的cardiogram 心动图cardiograph 心动仪cardiographic 心动描记的cardiographic curve 心动描记曲线cardiography 心动描记术cardioinhibitor 心动抑制剂cardiology 心脏学cardiomotility 心脏活动cardioneurosis 心脏神经症cardiopalmus 心悸cardiophobia 心脏病恐怖症cardiophonogram 心音图cardiophonography 心音描记法cardiopneumograph 心肺运动描记器cardioregulatory center 心脏调节中枢cardiosphygmogram 心动脉博图cardiosphygmograph 心动脉博描记器cardiosphygmography 心动脉博描记法cardiotachometer 心动频率计cardiotachometry 心率记录法cardiovascular disorder 心血管障碍cardiovascular system 心血管系统cardio accelerator 心动加速剂cardio acceleratory 心动加速的cardio acceleratory center 心动加速中枢cardio acceleratory mechanism 心动加速机制cardio inhibitory 心动抑制的cardio inhibitory center 心动抑制中枢cardio inhibitory mechanism 心动抑制机制cardio respiratory ratio 心博呼吸比率cardi accelerator 心动加速剂card sorting test 卡片分类测验care 小心care of young 护幼career 职业经历Career Adjustment and Development Inventory 职业调适和发展问卷career anchors 事业定位career appraisal 事业评价Career Assessment Inventory 职业评估测验career change 职业变换career choice 事业选择career commitment 事业承诺career counseling 事业咨询career cycle 事业周期Career Decision Making Self efficacy Scale 职业决策自我效能感量表career development 事业发展career development for woman 妇女职业发展Career Development Inventory 事业发展问卷career development program 职业发展制度career education 事业教育career field 事业领域career goal 事业目标career guidance 就业辅导career identity 职业认同career insight 职业洞察力career management 事业管理career maturity 事业成熟性Career Maturity Inventory 事业成熟度量表career planning 职业计划career policy 职业政策career quidance 事业辅导career resilience 事业活力career stages 事业阶段career woman 职业妇女careerism 野心careerist 野心家carefree 无忧无虑careful 小心的careful reflection 慎思careless 粗心的caress 爱抚caretaker 看管人caretaker government 看守政府caretaking 看管careworn 受忧虑折磨的care laden 忧心忡忡的carinal cavity 背腔carking 烦恼的carnage 残杀carnality 肉欲carney 哄骗carnivore 食肉动物carotid artery 颈动脉carotid sinus baroreceptor 颈动脉窦压力感受器carp 挑剔carpal 腕关节的carpal bone age 腕骨年龄carpale 腕骨carphology 摸空carriertheory 载体学说carrier free 无载体的carry away 兴奋carry back 使回想起carry initiating signal 进位起始信号carry on 行动失常carry propagation 进位传递carrying 负载力carry over effect 延续效应Cartesian coordinate 笛卡儿坐标Cartesian coordinate 正坐标Cartesian linguistics 笛卡儿语言学cartilagines laryngis 喉软骨cartilago cranialis 脑软骨cartilago septi nasi 鼻隔软骨cartogram 统计图cartography 制图法cartoon test 漫画测验cartridge weight 重量盒cascade control 级联控制cascaded carry 逐位进位case 病例case 个案case analysis 个案分析case grammar 格语法case history 病历case history 个案史case history interview 个案史访谈case history method 个案史法case method 个案法case record 个案记录case report 个案报告case study 个案研究case study method 个案研究法case work 个案工作casebook 病例本casebook 个案资料caseworker 个案工作者case control study 个案控制研究case group method 个案分组法case study interview 个案研究面谈cast away 抛弃cast back 追溯cast off 释放caste 社会等级caste system 等级制Castellani Low symptom 卡斯特拉尼 洛症状castigate 惩罚castle builder 空想家castrate 阉割castrated person 去势者castrated person 阉人castration 阉割castration anxiety 阉割焦虑castration complex 阉割情结castration fear 阉割恐惧castroid 类去势者casual path model 因径模式casual ward 临时收容所casual comparative study 原因比较研究casuistics 病案讨论CAT 计算机轴断层摄影术cat 猫CAT scanner 电脑断层扫描仪catabasis 缓解期catabiosis 分解代谢catabiosis 老化现象catabolic phase 分解阶段catabolic process 分解过程catabolism 分解代谢catabythismomania 自溺狂cataclysm 灾变catadioptric 反射折射的catagenesis 退化catagenetic 退化的catalepsis 木僵catalepsy 木僵cataleptic 僵住症的catalepticform 僵住症样的catalexia 重读症catalog 目录catalog method 目录法catalog technique 目录法catalogia 言语重复cataloging 目录catalogue 目录catalogue cards 目录卡片catalysis 催化作用catalyst 催化剂catalyze 催化catamnesis 诊后病历cataphasia 重复语言cataphora 嗜睡样昏迷cataphoria 下隐斜视cataphrenia 可逆性痴呆cataplasia 退化cataplexis 猝倒cataplexy 猝倒cataract 白内障catastaltic 抑制的catastaltica 抑制剂catastrophe 灾变catastrophe model 激变模型catastrophic reaction 灾害性反应catathermometer 干湿球温度计catathymic amnesia 情综性遗忘catathymic amnesia 选择性失忆症catatonia 肌肉紧张症catatonia 紧张症catatonic 紧张症的catatonic dementia 紧张症型痴呆catatonic excitement 紧张症兴奋catatonic rage 紧张症愤怒catatonic schizophrenia 紧张型精神分裂症catatonic stupor紧张性木僵紧张性僵呆catatonic syndrome 紧张综合症catatonic type 僵直型catatonosis 张力减退catatony 紧张症catch test 捕捉测验catching 捕捉catechetic method 问答法catechetical method 问答法catechism 问答教学法catecholamine 儿茶酚胺catechol o methyltransferase 儿茶酚氧位甲基移位酶categorematic 范畴性的categorical 分类的categorical attitude 归类心态categorical behavior 归类行为categorical clustering 范畴群集categorical data 分类数据categorical data analysis 分类数据分析categorical distinction范畴特征范畴特徵categorical distribution 类别分布categorical form 范畴形式categorical frequency 组限频次categorical judgment 范畴判断categorical measure 类别测量categorical perception 类别知觉categorical perception of speech 语言范畴知觉categorical rating 分类评定categorical rule 范畴规则categorical scale 分类量表categorical variable 类别变项categories of organization communication 组织沟通分类categorization 分类categorizing process 分类过程category 范畴category clustering 范畴群集category limen 范畴阈限category method 范畴法category object 范畴对象category observation 范畴观察category of being 存在范畴category of relation 关系范畴category of speech 言语范畴category of unthought 非思想范畴category scales 范畴量表category system 范畴系统category test 范畴实验category width 范畴幅度catharsis 宣泄catharsis hypothesis 宣泄假说catharsis method 宣泄法catharsis theory 宣泄论catharsis theory of play 游戏宣泄论cathartic 导泄的cathartic hypnosis 宣泄催眠法cathartic method 宣泄法cathartic method of emotion 情绪宣泄法cathartic play 宣泄性游戏cathected energy 投附的能量cathectic 投注catheresis 虚弱cathexis 情感投注cathexis 性力投注cathisophobia 静坐恐怖症cathode 阴极cathode ray 阴极射线cathode ray displays 阴极射线显示器cathode ray oscillograph 阴极射线示波器cathode ray tube 示波器catholicity 普遍性CATI 计算机辅助电话访谈cation 阳离子catophoria 下隐斜视catoptric 反射光的catoptrical 反射光的catoptrics 反射光学catoptrophobia 恐镜子症catoptroscope 反光检查镜Cattell Infant Intelligence Scale 卡特尔婴儿智力量表Cattell Infant Scale 卡特尔婴儿量表Cattell s factor theory 卡特尔因素论Cattell s trait theory 卡特尔特质论Cattell s 16 Personality Factor Questionnaire 卡氏cattishness 敏捷cat s cry syndrome 猫叫综合症caudal 尾部caudate 有尾的caudate nucleus 尾状核caudex drosalis 延髓caudex encephalic pontilis 脑桥caumesthesia 触冷感热causal 原因的causal analysis 因果分析causal anomaly 异常的因果分析causal association 因果联想causal attribution 因果归因causal connection 因果联系causal efficacy 因果功效causal explanation 因果性解释causal inference 因果性推断causal investigation 因果调查causal model 因果模式causal path 因果路径causal path analysis 因果路径分析causal path model 因径模式causal relation 因果关系causal research 因果研究causal schema 因果图式causal theory of perception 知觉因果论causalgia 灼痛causality 因果关系causality 缘由causality concept 因果概念causality condition 因果条件causal comparative study 原因比较研究causation 因果作用causation 原因causationism 因果律causationism of crime 犯罪原因论causationist 因果律cause 原因cause and effect 因果cause of trouble 事故原因causeless 无原因的cause and effect test 因果测验cause effect relation 因果关系caution 小心caution device 警告装置caution signals 警告信号cautionary 警告的cautious shift 谨慎偏移cautious style 谨慎型cautious shift effect 谨慎偏移效应CAVD 抽象智力CAVD Test 抽象智力测验cave 洞穴caveman 穴居人cavil 挑剔cavity of skull 颅腔cavum 腔cavum craniale 颅腔cavum laryngis 喉腔cavum medullare 髓腔cavum nasi ossei 骨鼻腔cavum oris 口腔cavum tympani 鼓室CBE 能力本位教育CBF 脑血流量CBI 能力本位教学CBS 慢性脑综合症CBT 能力本位训练CBTE 能力本位师资教育CCFF 颜色临界融合频率CCS 计算机控制系统CD form 概念从属形式CD ratio 控制 显示比CD ratio 控制 显示比CDMSEcease 停息ceiling 上限ceiling age 上限年龄ceiling and floor effect 上限下限效应ceiling effect 上限效应celerity 迅速celestial 天空的celestial body 天体celestial illusion 天空错视celibacy 禁欲celibatarian 独身主义者cell 单元cell 细胞cell aggregation 细胞集合cell assembly 细胞结集cell body 细胞体cell death 细胞坏死cell division 细胞分裂cell frequency 格内频次cell membrane 细胞膜cell nucleus 细胞核cell theory 细胞学说cellophane slide 透明纸幻灯片cellular 细胞的cellularity 细胞结构cellule 细胞celluloneuritis 神经细胞炎Celsius 摄氏的Celsius scale 摄氏温标Celsius temperature 摄氏温度Celsius thermometer 摄氏温度计CEM 中心兴奋机制cenesthesia 一般机体觉cenesthesiopathy 体觉违合cenesthesiopathy 一般感觉紊乱cenesthesis 一般机体觉cenesthetic 普通感觉cenesthetic hallucination 机体统觉性幻觉cenesthopathy 体感幻觉cenophobia 恐荒野症cenotoxin 疲劳毒素censor 潜意识压抑censorship 潜意识稽查censure 指责census 人口调查census data 人口资料center 中枢center 中心center clipping 中部削波center clipping distortion 中心削波失真中心削波失真center for creative leadership 创造性领导中心Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale 流行病学研究中心抑郁量表center of body temperature regulation 体温调节中心center of equilibrium平衡中心平衡中心center of gravity 重心center of interest 兴趣中心center of rotation 旋转中心center of Wernicke 韦尼克中心centered thought 中心化思考centibar 厘巴centigrade degree 摄氏温度centile 百分位等级central 中心的central aphasia 中枢性失语症central artery 中央动膜central body 中心体central body temperature 中心体温central canal 中心管central conflict 中心冲突central control room 中央控制室central deafness 中枢性聋central difference notation 中央差分记法central disposition 中心气质central excitatory mechanism 中心兴奋机制central excitatory state 中心兴奋状态central fatigue 中枢性疲劳central field of view 中心视野central fissure 中央沟central gray 中灰质central gray matter 中灰质层central inhibition 中枢抑制central lesion 中枢神经系统损伤central limit theorem 中央极限定理central lobe 大脑中叶central motive state 中枢动机状态central nerve trunk 中枢神经干central nervous system 中枢神经系统central nervous system disorder 中枢神经系统失调central nucleus 中央核central operation board 中央操纵台central processor 中央处理装置central processor model 中央处理器模式central projection 中央突central scotoma 中心盲central stimulants 中枢兴奋药central sulcus 中央沟central tendency 集中趋势central tendency measure 集中趋势测量central tendency of judgment 集中趋势判断central theory 中枢论central tissue 中心组织central trait 中心特质central type 中间型central value 代表值central vision 中央视觉central vision field 中央视野centralism 中枢机能论centrality 向心性centrality index 向心性指标centralization 集权化centralization 中央集权centralized data processing 数据集中处理centralized management 集权管理centraphose 中枢性暗觉centration 向心性centre 中心centrifugal 传出的centrifugal 离心的centrifugal fiber 传出纤维centrifugal fiber 离心纤维centrifugal force 离心力centrifugal nerve 传出神经centrifugal swing 离心摇摆centrifugal centripetal migration model 离心 向心迁移模式centripetal 向心的centripetal fiber 传入纤维centripetal fiber 向心纤维centripetal force 向心力centripetal nerve 向心神经centrocinesia 中枢性运动centrocinetic 中枢性运动的centroid analysis 图心分析centroid factor analysis 形心因子分析centroid method 重心法centromere 着丝点centronervin 中枢神经素centrophose 中枢性暗觉centrophose 中枢性光幻觉centrostaltic 运动中心的centrotherapy 中枢疗法centrum 中枢cephalalgia 头痛cephalic 头的cephalic index 头颅指数cephalic neuromere 头部神经元节cephalin 脑磷脂cephalin flocculation 脑磷脂絮状反应cephalitis 脑炎cephalization 头向集中cephalocaudal development 首到尾的发展cephalocaudal direction 首尾方向cephalocele 脑膨出cephalodynia 头痛cephalogenesis 头部形成cephalograph 头描记器cephalometer 头颅测量器cephalometry 测颅法cephalone 大头白痴cephalonia 巨头症cephalotropic 向脑的ceptor 受体CER 条件性情绪反应cerebellar 小脑的cerebellar ataxia 小脑运动失调cerebellar cortex 小脑皮质cerebellar gait 小脑步态cerebellar hemispheres 小脑半球cerebellar lobe 小脑叶cerebellar nuclei 小脑核cerebellar peduncle 小脑脚cerebellifugal 离小脑的cerebellipetal 向小脑的cerebellitis 小脑炎cerebellofugal 小脑传出的cerebellopontile 小脑脑桥的cerebellospinal 小脑脊髓的cerebellospinal tract 小脑脊髓径cerebello olivary 小脑橄榄体的cerebellum 小脑cerebell bulbar tract 小脑延髓束cerebral 大脑的cerebral achromatopsia 皮质性色盲cerebral activity 大脑活动cerebral akinesia 大脑性运动不能cerebral anesthesia 大脑性感觉缺失cerebral apoplexy 大脑卒中cerebral aqueduct 大脑导水管cerebral arteriosclerosis 大脑动脉硬化cerebral basal ganglia 大脑基底核cerebral biocurrent 脑生物电流cerebral blindness 中枢性盲cerebral blood flow 脑血流量cerebral concussion 脑震荡cerebral connectionism 皮质纤维连接主义cerebral contusion 脑挫伤cerebral convolution 脑回cerebral cortex 大脑皮质cerebral cranium 脑颅cerebral dominance 大脑优势cerebral dura mater 硬脑膜cerebral dysrhythmia 脑波节律障碍cerebral electro therapy 大脑电疗法cerebral embolism 脑栓塞cerebral ganglion 丘脑cerebral gyri 大脑回cerebral haemorrhage 脑溢血cerebral hemisphere activity 大脑半球活动cerebral hemispheres 大脑半球cerebral hemispheric dominance 大脑半球优势cerebral hemorrhage 大脑出血cerebral hyperplasia 大脑发育过速cerebral hypoplasia 大脑发育不全cerebral hypoxia 大脑低氧病cerebral infarction 脑梗塞cerebral integration 大脑整合作用cerebral laceration 大脑裂伤cerebral lesion 大脑损伤cerebral limbic system 大脑边缘系统cerebral localization 大脑定位作用cerebral metabolic rate 大脑代谢率cerebral neocortex 大脑新皮层cerebral nerve 脑神经cerebral palsied child 脑性麻痹儿cerebral palsy 大脑麻痹cerebral palsy 脑性瘫痪cerebral peduncle 大脑脚cerebral sulci 大脑沟cerebral thrombosis 脑血栓cerebral trauma 脑外伤cerebral trigone 大脑穹窿cerebral tumor 脑瘤cerebral ventricle 脑室cerebrale 脑病性cerebrate 用脑cerebration 大脑作用cerebrifugal 离大脑的cerebripetal 向大脑的cerebritis 大脑炎cerebrocentric 大脑中枢的cerebrology 脑学cerebromedullary 脑脊髓的cerebromeningeal 脑膜的cerebromeningitis 脑膜炎cerebropathia 脑病cerebropathy 脑病cerebrophysiology 大脑生理学cerebropontile 大脑脑桥的cerebrorachidian 脑脊髓的cerebrosclerosis 脑硬化cerebroscopy 脑病检眼镜cerebrosis 脑病cerebrospinal 脑脊的cerebrospinal fluid 脑脊液cerebrospinal ganglion 脑脊神经节cerebrospinal nervous system 脑脊神经系统cerebrospinal system 脑脊髓系统cerebrotomy 脑切开术cerebrotonia 大脑紧张症cerebrotonia 头脑型cerebrotonia type 大脑紧张型cerebrovascular 脑血管的cerebrovascular accident 脑血管伤害cerebrovascular disease 脑血管病cerebrovascular stroke 脑血发作cerebrovascular system 脑血系统cerebrums 大脑ceremony 仪式certain 确凿的certain knowledge 准确的知识certainty 必然性certainty of thinking 思维的确定性certes 必然的certifiable 可证明的certificate of safety inspection 安全合格证certificate of safety operation 安全操作合格证certification 证明certitude 必然性cervical nerve 颈神经Cestan Chenais syndrome 塞思丹 舍奈茨综合症CET 大脑电疗法CFA 验证性因素分析CFF 临界闪烁频率CG 对照组CG 控制组CGR 皮电反应Chaddock s reflex sign 查多克反射症chafe 惹怒chagrin 懊恼chain 链锁chain communication network 链形联络网chain complex 链锁情结chain index number 链指数chain learning 链锁学习chain of association 联想链chain of command 命令链chain reflex 链锁反射chained equipercentile equating 链接百分位数等化法chained reflex 链锁反射chained response 链锁反应chaining 链锁化chaining of responses 反应链锁作用chainless 无束缚的chain association task 链锁联想任务chair warmer 闲荡汉Chaldean 占星者chalk talk 注入式教学法chalk up 记下chalk and talk 注入式教学法challenge 挑战challenge suggestion 查问暗示chalone 抑制素chameleon 反复无常的人champ 焦急chance 机遇chance cause 偶发原因chance concept 机率概念chance contingency of reinforcement 机遇随因强化chance difference 机差chance error 机误chance event 随机事件chance fluctuation 机遇波动chance form 随意图形chance success 偶遇成功chance variation 偶然变异chance halves correlation 机因折半相关chance medley 过失杀人change 变化change agent 促变者change in consumption 消费变化change in human view 人的观念变化change in value 数值变化change induction group 变化感应群体change of character 性格变换change of consumption 消费变化change of live 更年期change of live 绝经期change of state 状态变化changeability 易变性changeable 易变的changeableness 易变性changeably 易变地changeful 易变的changefully 易变地changefulness 不确定性changeless 不变的changelessness 不变性changeling 低能者changer 变换器channel 频道channel 通道channel capacity 通道容量channel capacity of vision 视觉通道容量channel richness 通道丰富性channel switching 通道开关channeled 槽形的channeller theory of motivation 激励的主导理论chaos 混乱chapfallen 沮丧Chapin Social Insight Test 查平社会领悟测验character 特征character 性格character analysis 性格分析character analysis system 性格分析系统character building 性格培养character classification by age 年龄分类character classification by body types 体型分类character classification by mind and will 心志分类character classification by will and motive 志意分类character defense 性格型防卫character development 品格发展character diagnosis 性格诊断character discipline 性格锻炼character disorder 性格障碍character displacement 品质置换character education 品格教育Character Education Inquiry 品格教育测验character enchantment 品格魅力character formation 性格形成character gradient 性状变异梯度character neurosis 性格神经症character of sports collective 运动集体性格character of volitional type 意志型性格character orientation 性格倾向Character Performance Maintenance Scale 品德绩效维系量表character performance main tenance theory品德绩效维系理论品德绩效维系理论character rating 品格分等character recognition 特征辨别character representation 特征表示character resistance 性格抵抗character structure 品格结构character test 品行测验character training 品格训练character trait 品格特质character type 性格类型characteristic 特征的characteristic curve 特征曲线characteristic curve method 特征曲线法特徵曲 法characteristic delay 特征延迟characteristic equation 特征公式characteristic factor 特性因素characteristic frequency 特征频率characteristic number 特征数characteristic point 特性点characteristic value 特征值characteristics 特征characteristics of man 人的特征characteristics of mentality 心理特征characteristics of self actualization 自我实现的特征characteristics of wrongly written words 错别字特征characterization 性格化characterization in art 艺术中的性格化characterless 无特征的characterology 性格学Charcot s triad 沙可三症charge 电荷chariness 谨慎charisma 号召力charisma 魅力charismatic authority 魅力型权威charismatic leadership 魅力型领袖charitable 慈善的charlatan 庸医charm 魅力Charpentier effect 沙蓬特效应Charpentier illusion 沙蓬特错觉Charpentier s band 沙蓬特光带Charpentier s law 沙蓬特定律查氏定律Charpentier Koseleff illusion 沙 柯大小重量错觉chart 图表chartography 制图法chase 跟踪chaste 贞洁的chasten 惩戒chastener 惩戒者chastise 惩罚chastisement 惩罚chat 闲谈chatter 震颤chatter 喋喋不休chatterbox 唠叨的人Chauvinism 排他主义Chauvinism 沙文主义CHD 冠心病ChE 胆碱脂酶cheapen 变得粗俗cheat 欺诈cheating 作弊check 核查check by sampling 抽查check coding 核查编码check error 校对check experiment 核查实验check list 检核清单check list method 检核表法check list rating scale 检核表式评定量表check point 检核点check reading display 核读显示器check test 对照试验check work 检核工作checklist 检核表cheeky 无耻的cheer 振奋cheerless 缺乏欢乐的cheimaphobia 恐冷症cheirocinesthesia 手运动觉cheirognomy 手相术cheirognostic 能辨别左右侧的cheirology 手势语chemaesthesis 物质感觉chemasthenia 化学过程减弱chemical 化学的chemical blocking 化学阻塞chemical brain stimulation 化学脑刺激chemical code 化学编码chemical evolution 化学进化chemical irritation 化学性刺激chemical mediator 化学介质chemical receptor 化学感受器chemical sensation 化学感觉chemical sense 化学感官chemical sympathectomy 化学性交感神经切断术chemical synapse 化学突触chemical transmitter substance 化学传递物质chemical transmitting synapse 化学传递突触chemicobiological 化学生物学的chemiluminescence 化学发光chemistry of learning 学习的化学作用chemokinesis 化学增活现象chemomorphosis 化学性变态chemophysiology 化学生理学chemopsychiatry 化学精神病学chemoreception 化学感受作用chemoreceptor 化学感受器chemoreflex 化学反射chemosensing system 化学感受系统chemosensitive 化学敏感的chemosensitivity 化学敏感性chemosensory 化学感觉的chemostat 化学恒定器chemosterilant 化学绝育剂chemotaxis 趋化性chemotaxis 向药性chemotherapy 化学疗法chemotropism 向药性cherish 爱护cherophobia 恐欢乐症cherub 可爱的Chervin s treatment method 舍万疗法chess board illusion 棋盘错觉chest breath 胸式呼吸chest circumference 胸围chest depth 胸厚chest lead 胸部导出chew 深思Cheyne Stokes nystagmus 节律性眼球震颤Cheyne Stokes psychosis 陈 施二氏精神病CHI 舒适健康指数chiaroscuro 明暗对比chiasm 神经交叉chiasm formation 交叉形成chiasm interference 交叉干涉chiasm opticum 视束交叉chiasma 交叉chiasma opticum 视交叉chiasmal 交叉的chiasmatic 交叉的chiasmatypy 交换染色体chiasmic 交叉的chiastometer 视轴偏歪测量器Chicago school 芝加哥学派Chicago Test of Primary Mental Abilities 芝加哥心理能力测验Chicago University Test of Creativity 芝加哥大学创造力测验chicane 诈骗chicken hearted 胆怯的chief complaint 主诉child 儿童child abuse 儿童虐待child adjustment 儿童适应child aphasia 儿童失语症Child Behavior Checklist 儿童行为检核表child birth training 分娩训练child care worker 儿童护理员child centered education 儿童中心教育child custody 儿童监护Child Development 儿童发展child discipline 儿童管教child drawing 儿童绘画child grammar 儿童语法child guidance 儿童指导child guidance centre 儿童指导中心child guidance clinic 儿童辅导诊所child guidance movement 儿童指导运动child hygiene 儿童卫生child labor 童工child literature 儿童文学child neglect 儿童照管不良child neurosis 儿童神经官能症Child Personality Scale 儿童人格量表child prodigy 天才儿童child psychiatry 儿童精神病学child psychology 儿童心理学child psychosis 儿童精神病child rearing 育儿child schizophrenia 儿童精神分裂症child social psychology 儿童社会心理学child study 儿童研究child therapy 儿童治疗法child welfare 儿童福利child welfare institution 儿童福利机构childbearing attitude 育儿态度childhood 儿童期childhood development 儿童期发展childhood education 儿童期教育childhood neurosis 儿童神经官能症childhood period 儿童期childhood play behavior 儿童期游戏行为childhood play development 儿童期游戏发展childhood psychosis 儿童期精神病childhood schizophrenia 儿童期精神分裂症childish 孩子的childless 无子女的childlike 孩子般的childlike dementia 童样痴呆Children Apperception Test 儿童统觉测验children behavior developmental stages 儿童行为发展阶段Children Hypnotic Susceptibility Scale 儿童催眠易感性量表Children Manifest Anxiety Scale 儿童外显焦虑量表children of school age 学龄儿童Children Personality Questionnaire 儿童人格问卷children recreation game 儿童娱乐游戏children s attention 儿童注意children s behavior 儿童行为children s calendar 儿童日历children s character 儿童性格children s fantasy 儿童幻想children s fears 儿童恐惧children s home 儿童教养院children s intelligence 儿童智力children s play 儿童游戏children s poems 儿童诗歌children s publications 儿童读物children s songs and rhymes 儿歌children s songs and rhymes 童谣child centered education 儿童中心教育child centered family 儿童中心家庭child child interaction 儿童间的相互作用child experience approach 儿童经验教学法child focused family 儿童焦点家庭child guidance clinic 儿童指导所child parent fixation 亲子固着child parent fixation 子亲情结child rearing 儿童养育child rearing practice 儿童养育方式child study movement 儿童研究运动chill 寒冷chimera 幻想chimerical 空想的chimpanzee 黑猩猩chinablepsia 雪盲Chinese Association for Mental Hygiene 中国心理卫生协会Chinese Ergonomics Association 中国工效学会Chinese implicit ladership theory 中国人的内隐领导理论Chinese Personality Assessment Inventory 中国人格评定量表Chinese Psychological Society 中国心理学会Chinese Social Psychological Association 中国社会心理学会chionophobia 恐雪症chipper 快乐的chirk 高兴的chirobrachialgia 手臂痛chirognomy 手相术chirognosy 手相学chirography 书法chirology 手相学chirospasm 书写痉挛chirpy 快活的chisel 欺骗chitchat 闲谈chi square 卡方chi square criterion 卡方准则chi square distribution 卡方分配。
控制油田回注水中硫酸盐还原菌数量的有效方法
第47卷 第5期 2020年5月天 津 科 技TIANJIN SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGYV ol.47 No.5May 2020收稿日期：2020-04-07基础研究控制油田回注水中硫酸盐还原菌数量的有效方法代齐加，徐学智，肖 宇(中海石油(中国)有限公司天津分公司 天津300459)摘 要：某油田回注水的硫酸盐还原菌(SRB )数量偶有超标，SRB 产生的代谢与腐蚀产物具有腐蚀流程设备和井下管柱、堵塞地面管线和地下油层、降解生产污水系统化学药剂等危害。
通过分析SRB 数量超标的原因，采取优选杀菌剂、改造杀菌剂加注点等措施，有效削弱了SRB 的抗药性，解决了杀菌剂注入不及时、针对性不强、化学反应时间短的问题，有效抑制了SRB 的繁殖与聚集，消除了SRB 数量超标的危害。
关键词：硫酸盐还原菌(SRB ) 数量 超标 杀菌剂评选 流程改造中图分类号：TE357.61 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006-8945(2020)05-0038-02Effective Method for Controlling Quantity of Sulfate Reducing Bacteria inOilfield Reinjection WaterDAI Qijia ，XU Xuezhi ，XIAO Yu(Tianjin Branch ，CNOOC <China> Ltd.，Tianjin 300459，China )Abstract ：The quantity of sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) in reinjection water of an oilfield occasionally exceeds the stan-dard. The metabolites and corrosion products produced by SRB have the hazards of corroding process equipment and down-hole strings ，blocking surface pipeline and underground oil layer and degrading chemical agents in production wastewater system. By analyzing the reasons for the excessive amount of SRB ，measures such as optimizing the selection of bacteri-cides and modifying the injection points of bactericides were taken to effectively weaken the resistance of SRB, and solve the problems of untimely injection of bactericides ，weak pertinence and short chemical reaction time. The reproduction and aggregation of SRB were controlled ，and the harm of excessive amount of SRB was eliminated.Key words ：sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB)；quantity ；excessive amount ；selection of bactericides ；process transforma-tion0 引 言某油田生产污水系统主要包括斜板除油器、气浮选器、核桃壳滤器、双介质滤器、注水缓冲罐等设备，将来自上游油田的生产污水及本油田的水源井水、生活灰水处理合格后回注地层以补充地层能量。
the nature of light 光的性质-什么是光子
Contents1The nature of light:what is a photon?Guest Editors:Chandrasekhar Roychoudhuri and Rajarshi Roy2Light reconsideredArthur Zajonc6What is a photon?Rodney Loudon12What is a photon?David Finkelstein18The concept of the photon—revisited Ashok Muthukrishnan,Marlan O.Scully,and M.Suhail Zubairy28 A photon viewed from Wigner phase spaceHolger Mack and Wolfgang P.SchleichThe nature of light:what is a photon?Chandrasekhar Roychoudhuri and Rajarshi RoyGuest EditorsThis issue of OPN Trends was conceived to bring together different views regarding a question that wasfirst posed in ancient times but remains unanswered today.What,indeed,is“the nature of light”?Many of us still feel perplexed when asked by a student to answer the seemingly simple question,“What is a photon?”©2003Optical Society of America OCIS codes:270.0270,260.0260.I t is staggering to consider the degree to which civiliza-tion has evolved in the approximately90years since Niels Bohr’s ad hoc quantization of atoms based on experimentally measured line spectra The changes that have occurred,includ-ing the growth of our knowledge of the micro and macro ma-terial worlds and the emergence of new technologies,have progressed far beyond the imagination of people living at the turn of the20th century.In the21st century,the pace of development will accelerate as a result of the rapid evo-lution of photonics.Yet the underlying science of thefield is still Maxwell’s classical electromagnetism,not thefield-quantized photon.We can certainly expect new photon-led breakthroughs in which the quantized nature of photons is in-trinsically important,e.g.,quantum encryption.The issue is important both in the scientific and in the technology driven socio-economic contexts.Writing a semi-popular article on the nature of the pho-ton is a difficult task.We are very thankful that a number of renowned scientists have accepted the challenge and writ-tenfive superb articles for all of us to enjoy.Each article in this issue of OPN Trends presents a somewhat different se-lection of facts and illuminates historical events with inter-esting comments.As for the photon itself,wefind here a va-riety of approaches that place it in different contexts.There are descriptions of the photon based on experiments that have used progressively refined probes to measure the interaction of light with matter.We alsofind descriptions of theoretical advances that have required an ever increasing understanding of the role of light in the conceptual framework of the physi-cal universe as we view it today.We invite our readers to embark on an exciting adventure. Before reading these articles,jot down what you think are the most pertinent facts you have learned about photons.Then read the articles in this issue in any order that appeals you. How deeply you engage yourself in this task depends on you. We ourselves are certain that we will revisit the articles and read them again for many years.At any stage of your reading, write down what you think of the photon as a result of what you have read here and what you have learned from other sources,for the photon is not an object that can be pinned down like a material object,say,a beautiful butterfly in a col-lection.The photon tells us,“I am who I am!”in no uncer-tain terms and invites us to get better acquainted with it.The chronicle will surely amuse and amaze you,for you willre-Chandrasekhar Roychoudhuri,University of Connecticut,andRajarshi Roy,University of Maryland,College Park,are the guesteditors of this issue of OPN Trends.alize that any description of the photon,at any time—even when made by the most learned expert—is but a glimpse of a reality that holds wonders beyond the grasp of any human. At least,that is how it appears to some of us today.Our special acknowledgment goes to Nippon Sheet Glass Corp.for sponsoring this supplement to Optics&Photonics News(OPN)and for agreeing to subsidize the cost of produc-tion.We dedicate this special issue to Professor Willis Lamb on the occasion of his90th birthday.The“Lamb shift”triggered the development of thefield of quantum electrodynamics and Professor Lamb has wrestled with the photon longer and more creatively than almost anyone alive today. Chandrasekhar Roychoudhuri(chandra@) is with the Photonics Lab,Physics Department,Uni-versity of Connecticut,Storrs,Conn.Rajarshi Roy (rroy@)is with the Institute for Physical Science and Technology,University of Maryland,College Park,Md.October2003 OPN T rends S-1Light reconsideredArthur ZajoncPhysics Department,Amherst CollegeI therefore take the liberty of proposing for this hypothetical new atom,which is not light but plays an essential part in every process of radiation,the name photon.1Gilbert N.Lewis,1926©2003Optical Society of AmericaOCIS codes:270.0270.L ight is an obvious feature of everyday life,and yet light’s true nature has eluded us for centuries.Near the end of his life Albert Einstein wrote,“All thefifty years of con-scious brooding have brought me no closer to the answer to the question:What are light quanta?Of course today every rascal thinks he knows the answer,but he is deluding him-self.”We are today in the same state of“learned ignorance”with respect to light as was Einstein.In1926when the chemist Gilbert Lewis suggested the name“photon,”the concept of the light quantum was already a quarter of a century old.First introduced by Max Planck in December of1900in order to explain the spectral distribu-tion of blackbody radiation,the idea of concentrated atoms of light was suggested by Einstein in his1905paper to ex-plain the photoelectric effect.Four years later on September 21,1909at Salzburg,Einstein delivered a paper to the Divi-sion of Physics of German Scientists and Physicians on the same subject.Its title gives a good sense of its content:“On the development of our views concerning the nature and con-stitution of radiation.”2Einstein reminded his audience how great had been their collective confidence in the wave theory and the luminifer-ous ether just a few years earlier.Now they were confronted with extensive experimental evidence that suggested a partic-ulate aspect to light and the rejection of the ether outright. What had seemed so compelling was now to be cast aside for a new if as yet unarticulated view of light.In his Salzburg lec-ture he maintained“that a profound change in our views on the nature and constitution of light is imperative,”and“that the next stage in the development of theoretical physics will bring us a theory of light that can be understood as a kind of fusion of the wave and emission theories of light.”At that time Einstein personally favored an atomistic view of light in which electromagneticfields of light were“associated with singular points just like the occurrence of electrostaticfields according to the electron theory.”Surrounding these electro-magnetic points he imaginedfields of force that superposed to give the electromagnetic wave of Maxwell’s classical the-ory.The conception of the photon held by many if not most working physicists today is,I suspect,not too different from that suggested by Einstein in1909.Others in the audience at Einstein’s talk had other views of light.Among those who heard Einstein’s presentation was Max Planck himself.In his recorded remarks following Ein-stein’s lecture we see him resisting Einstein’s hypothesis of atomistic light quanta propagating through space.If Einstein were correct,Planck asked,how could one account for in-terference when the length over which one detected interfer-ence was many thousands of wavelengths?How could a quan-tum of light interfere with itself over such great distances if it were a point object?Instead of quantized electromagnetic fields Planck maintained that“one should attempt to transfer the whole problem of the quantum theory to the area of in-teraction between matter and radiation energy.”That is,only the exchange of energy between the atoms of the radiating source and the classical electromagneticfield is quantized. The exchange takes place in units of Planck’s constant times the frequency,but thefields remain continuous and classical. In essence,Planck was holding out for a semi-classical theory in which only the atoms and their interactions were quantized while the freefields remained classical.This view has had a long and honorable history,extending all the way to the end of the20th century.Even today we often use a semi-classical approach to handle many of the problems of quantum optics, including Einstein’s photoelectric effect.3The debate between Einstein and Planck as to the nature of light was but a single incident in the four thousand year inquiry concerning the nature of light.4For the ancient Egyp-tian light was the activity of their god Ra seeing.When Ra’s eye(the Sun)was open,it was day.When it was closed,night fell.The dominant view in ancient Greece focused likewise on vision,but now the vision of human beings instead of the gods.The Greeks and most of their successors maintained that inside the eye a pure ocularfire radiated a luminous stream out into the world.This was the most important factor in sight.Only with the rise of Arab optics do wefind strong arguments advanced against the extromissive theory of light expounded by the Greeks.For example around1000A.D.Ibn al-Haytham(Alhazen in the West)used his invention of the camera obscura to advocate for a view of light in which rays streamed from luminous sources traveling in straight lines to the screen or the eye.By the time of the scientific revolution the debate as to the physical nature of light had divided into the two familiar camps of waves and particles.In broad strokes Galileo and Newton maintained a corpuscular view of light,while Huy-S-2OPN T rends October2003The Nature of Lightgens,Young and Euler advocated a wave view.The evidence supporting these views is well known.The elusive single photonOne might imagine that with the more recent developments of modern physics the debate wouldfinally be settled and a clear view of the nature of light attained.Quantum electrodynamics (QED)is commonly treated as the most successful physical theory ever invented,capable of predicting the effects of the interaction between charged particles and electromagnetic ra-diation with unprecedented precision.While this is certainly true,what view of the photon does the theory advance?And how far does it succeed in fusing wave and particle ideas?In 1927Dirac,one of the inventors of QED,wrote confidently of the new theory that,“There is thus a complete harmony between the wave and quantum descriptions of the interac-tion.”5While in some sense quantumfield theories do move beyond wave particle duality,the nature of light and the pho-ton remains elusive.In order to support this I would like to focus on certain fundamental features of our understanding of photons and the philosophical issues associated with quan-tumfield theory.6In QED the photon is introduced as the unit of excitation associated with a quantized mode of the radiationfield.As such it is associated with a plane wave of precise momen-tum,energy and polarization.Because of Bohr’s principle of complementarity we know that a state of definite momentum and energy must be completely indefinite in space and time. This points to thefirst difficulty in conceiving of the pho-ton.If it is a particle,then in what sense does it have a loca-tion?This problem is only deepened by the puzzling fact that, unlike other observables in quantum theory,there is no Her-metian operator that straightforwardly corresponds to posi-tion for photons.Thus while we can formulate a well-defined quantum-mechanical concept of position for electrons,pro-tons and the like,we lack a parallel concept for the photon and similar particles with integer spin.The simple concept of spatio-temporal location must therefore be treated quite care-fully for photons.We are also accustomed to identifying an object by a unique set of attributes.My height,weight,shoe size,etc. uniquely identify me.Each of these has a well-defined value. Their aggregate is a full description of me.By contrast the single photon can,in some sense,take on multiple directions, energies and polarizations.Single-photon spatial interference and quantum beats require superpositions of these quantum descriptors for single photons.Dirac’s refrain“photons inter-fere with themselves”while not universally true is a reminder of the importance of superposition.Thus the single photon should not be thought of as like a simple plane wave having a unique direction,frequency or polarization.Such states are rare special cases.Rather the superposition state for single photons is the common situation.Upon detection,of course, light appears as if discrete and indivisible possessing well-defined attributes.In transit things are quite otherwise.Nor is the single photon state itself easy to produce.The anti-correlation experiments of Grangier,Roger and Aspect provide convincing evidence that with suitable care one canprepare single-photon states of light.7When sent to a beamsplitter such photon states display the type of statistical cor-relations we would expect of particles.In particular the singlephotons appear to go one way or the other.Yet such single-photon states can interfere with themselves,even when run in“delayed choice.”8More than one photonIf we consider multiple photons the conceptual puzzles multi-ply as well.As spin one particles,photons obey Bose-Einsteinstatistics.The repercussions of this fact are very significantboth for our conception of the photon and for technology.In fact Planck’s law for the distribution of blackbody radi-ation makes use of Bose-Einstein statistics.Let us comparethe statistics suited to two conventional objects with that ofphotons.Consider two marbles that are only distinguishedby their colors:red(R)and green(G).Classically,four dis-tinct combinations exist:RR,GG,RG and GR.In writing thiswe presume that although identical except for color,the mar-bles are,in fact,distinct because they are located at differentplaces.At least since Aristotle we have held that two objectscannot occupy exactly the same location at the same time andtherefore the two marbles,possessing distinct locations,aretwo distinct objects.Photons by contrast are defined by the three quantum num-bers associated with momentum,energy and polarization;po-sition and time do not enter into consideration.This meansthat if two photons possess the same three values for thesequantum numbers they are indistinguishable from one an-other.Location in space and in time is no longer a meansfor theoretically distinguishing photons as elementary parti-cles.In addition,as bosons,any number of photons can oc-cupy the same state,which is unlike the situation for electronsand other fermions.Photons do not obey the Pauli ExclusionPrinciple.This fact is at the foundation of laser theory be-cause laser operation requires many photons to occupy a sin-gle mode of the radiationfield.To see how Bose-Einstein statistics differ from classicalstatistics consider the following example.If instead of mar-bles we imagine we have two photons in our possessionwhich are distinguished by one of their attributes,things arequite different.For consistency with the previous example Ilabel the two values of the photon attribute R and G.As re-quired by Bose-Einstein statistics,the states available to thetwo photons are those that are symmetric states under ex-change:RR,GG and1/2(RG+GR).The states RG and GR are non-symmetric,while the combination1/2(RG–GR)is anti-symmetric.These latter states are not suitable for pho-tons.All things being equal we expect equal occupation forthe three symmetric states with1/3as the probability forfind-ing a pair of photons in each of the three states,instead of1/4for the case of two marbles.This shows that it makes no sense to continue to think of photons as if they were“really”in classical states like RG and GR.Experimentally we can realize the above situation by send-ing two photons onto a beam splitter.From a classical per-October2003 OPN T rends S-3The Nature of Lightspective there are four possibilities.They are sketched out in Fig.1.We can label them RR for two right-going pho-tons,UR for up and right,RU for right and up,and UU for the two photons going up.The quantum amplitudes for the UR and RU have opposite signs due to the reflections which the photons undergo in Fig.1c,which leads to destructive in-terference between these two amplitudes.The signal for one photon in each direction therefore vanishes.Surprisingly both photons are always found together.Another way of thinking about the experiment is in terms of the bosonic character of photons.Instead of thinking of the photons as having individ-ual identities we should really think of there being three ways of pairing the two photons:two up (UU),two right (RR)and the symmetric combination (1/2(UR +RU)).All things be-ing equal,we would expect the experiment to show an even distribution between the three options,1/3for each.But the experiment does not show this;why not?The answer is found in the opposite signs associated with UR and RU due to re-flections.As a consequence the proper way to write the state for combination of b and c is 1/2(UR –RU).But this is anti-symmetric and therefore forbidden for photons which must have a symmetricstate.Fig.1.Copyright permission granted by Nature.9From this example we can see how Bose statistics con-founds our conception of the identity of individual photons and rather treats them as aggregates with certain symmetry properties.These features are reflected in the treatment of photons in the formal mathematical language of Fock space.In this representation we only specify how many quanta are to be found in each mode.All indexing of individual particles disappears.Photons and relativityIn his provocatively titled paper “Particles do not Exist,”Paul Davies advances several profound difficulties for any conven-tional particle conception of the photon,or for that matter for particles in general as they appear in relativistic quantum field theory.10One of our deepest tendencies is to reify the features that appear in our theories.Relativity confounds this habit of mind,and many of the apparent paradoxes of rela-tivity arise because of our erroneous expectations due to this attitude.Every undergraduate is confused when,having mas-tered the electromagnetic theory of Maxwell he or she learns about Einstein’s treatment of the electrodynamics of moving bodies.The foundation of Einstein’s revolutionary 1905pa-per was his recognition that the values the electric and mag-netic fields take on are always relative to the observer.That is,two observers in relative motion to one another will record on their measuring instruments different values of E and B for the same event.They will,therefore,give different causal ac-counts for the event.We habitually reify the electromagnetic field so that particular values of E and B are imagined as truly extant in space independent of any observer.In relativity we learn that in order for the laws of electromagnetism to be true in different inertial frames the values of the electric and mag-netic fields (among other things)must change for different inertial frames.Matters only become more subtle when we move to accelerating frames.Davies gives special attention to the problems that arise for the photon and other quanta in relativistic quantum field the-ory.For example,our concept of reality has,at its root,the no-tion that either an object exists or it does not.If the very exis-tence of a thing is ambiguous,in what sense is it real?Exactly this is challenged by quantum field theory.In particular the quantum vacuum is the state in which no photons are present in any of the modes of the radiation field.However the vac-uum only remains empty of particles for inertial observers.If instead we posit an observer in a uniformly accelerated frame of reference,then what was a vacuum state becomes a ther-mal bath of photons for the accelerated observer.And what is true for accelerated observers is similarly true for regions of space-time curved by gravity.Davies uses these and other problems to argue for a vigorous Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics that abandons the idea of a “particle as a really existing thing skipping between measuring devices.”To my mind,Einstein was right to caution us concerning light.Our understanding of it has increased enormously in the 100years since Planck,but I suspect light will continue to confound us,while simultaneously luring us to inquire cease-lessly into its nature.References1.Gilbert N.Lewis,Nature,vol.118,Part 2,December 18,1926,pp.874-875.What Lewis meant by the term photon was quite different from our usage.2.The Collected Papers of Albert Einstein,vol.2,translated by Anna Beck (Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,1989),pp.379-98.3.George Greenstein and Arthur Zajonc,The Quantum Challenge,Mod-ern Research on the Foundations of Quantum Mechanics (Boston,MA:S-4OPN T rends October 2003The Nature of LightJones&Bartlett,1997);T.H.Boyer,Scientific American,“The Clas-sical Vacuum”August1985253(2)pp.56-62.4.For a full treatment of the history of light see Arthur Zajonc,Catch-ing the Light,the Entwined History of Light and Mind(NY:Oxford University Press,1993).5.P.A.M Dirac,Proceedings of the Royal Society(London)A114(1927)pp.243-65.6.See Paul Teller,An Interpretive Introduction to Quantum Field Theory(Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,1995).7.P.Grangier,G.Roger and A.Aspect,Europhysics Letters,vol.1,(1986)pp.173-179.8.T.Hellmuth,H.Walther,A.Zajonc,and W.Schleich,Phys.Rev.A,vol.35,(1987)pp.2532-41.9.Figure1is from Philippe Grangier,“Single Photons Stick Together,”Nature419,p.577(10Oct2002).10.P.C.W.Davies,Quantum Theory of Gravity,edited by Steven M.Christensen(Bristol:Adam Hilger,1984)October2003 OPN T rends S-5What is a photon?Rodney LoudonUniversity of Essex,Colchester,UKThe concept of the photon is introduced by discussion of the process of electromagneticfield quantization within a closed cavity or in an open optical system.The nature of a single-photon state is clarified by consideration of its behaviour at an optical beam splitter.The importance of linear superposition or entangled states in the distinctions between quantum-mechanical photon states and classical excitations of the electromagneticfield is emphasized.These concepts and the ideas of wave–particle duality are illustrated by discussions of the effects of single-photon inputs to Brown–Twiss and Mach–Zehnder interferometers.Both the theoretical predictions and the confirming experimental observations are covered.The defining property of the single photon in terms of its ability to trigger one,and only one,photodetection event is discussed.©2003Optical Society of America OCIS codes:270.0270.T he development of theories of the nature of light has a long history,whose main events are well reviewed by Lamb1.The history includes strands of argument in favor of either a particle or a wave view of light.The realm of clas-sical optics includes all of the phenomena that can be under-stood and interpreted on the basis of classical wave and par-ticle theories.The conflicting views of the particle or wave essence of light were reconciled by the establishment of the quantum theory,with its introduction of the idea that all exci-tations simultaneously have both particle-like and wave-like properties.The demonstration of this dual behavior in the real world of experimental physics is,like so many basic quantum-mechanical phenomena,most readily achieved in optics.The fundamental properties of the photon,particularly the discrimination of its particle-like and wave-like proper-ties,are most clearly illustrated by observations based on the use of beam splitters.The realm of quantum optics includes all of the phenomena that are not embraced by classical op-tics and require the quantum theory for their understanding and interpretation.The aim of the present article is to try to clarify the nature of the photon by considerations of electro-magneticfields in optical cavities or in propagation through free space.Single photons and beam splittersA careful description of the nature of the photon begins with the electromagneticfield inside a closed optical resonator,or perfectly-reflecting cavity.This is the system usually assumed in textbook derivations of Planck’s radiation law2.Thefield excitations in the cavity are limited to an infinite discrete set of spatial modes determined by the boundary conditions at the cavity walls.The allowed standing-wave spatial varia-tions of the electromagneticfield in the cavity are identical in the classical and quantum theories.However,the time de-pendence of each mode is governed by the equation of mo-tion of a harmonic oscillator,whose solutions take different forms in the classical and quantum theories.Unlike its clas-sical counterpart,a quantum harmonic oscillator of angular frequencyωcan only be excited by energies that are inte-ger multiples of¯hω.The integer n thus denotes the number of energy quanta excited in the oscillator.For application to the electromagneticfield,a single spatial mode whose associ-ated harmonic oscillator is in its n th excited state unambigu-ously contains n photons,each of energy¯hω.Each photon has a spatial distribution within the cavity that is proportionalto the square modulus of the complexfield amplitude of themode function.For the simple,if unrealistic,example of aone-dimensional cavity bounded by perfectly reflecting mir-rors,the spatial modes are standing waves and the photon maybe found at any position in the cavity except the nodes.Thesingle-mode photons are said to be delocalized.These ideas can be extended to open optical systems,wherethere is no identifiable cavity but where the experimental ap-paratus has afinite extent determined by the sources,thetransverse cross sections of the light beams,and the detectors.The discrete standing-wave modes of the closed cavity are re-placed by discrete travelling-wave modes that propagate fromsources to detectors.The simplest system to consider is theoptical beam splitter,which indeed is the central componentin many of the experiments that study the quantum nature oflight.Fig.1shows a representation of a lossless beam splitter,with two input arms denoted1and2and two output arms de-noted3and4.An experiment to distinguish the classical andquantum natures of light consists of a source that emits lightin one of the input arms and which is directed by the beamsplitter to detectors in the two output arms.The relevant spa-tial modes of the system in this example include a joint exci-tation of the selected input arm and both output arms.The operatorsˆa i in Fig.1are the photon destruction opera-tors for the harmonic oscillators associated with the two input (i=1,2)and two output(i=3,4)arms.These destruction operators essentially represent the amplitudes of the quantumelectromagneticfields in the four arms of the beam splitter,analogous to the complex classicalfield amplitudes.The realelectric-field operators of the four arms are proportional tothe sum ofˆa i exp(−iωt)and the Hermitean conjugate opera-torsˆa†i exp(iωt).The proportionality factor includes Planck’s constant¯h,the angular frequencyω,and the permittivity of free spaceε0,but its detailed form does not concern us here. For the sake of brevity,we refer toˆa i as thefield in arm i.The operatorˆa†i is the p hoton creation operator for arm i and it has the effect of generating a single-photon state|1 i in armS-6OPN T rends October2003。
常减压蒸馏装置基准能耗计算方法的比较
收稿日期:2001210229 通讯联系人:李少萍文章编号:100128719(2002)0320048206常减压蒸馏装置基准能耗计算方法的比较COMPARISON OF CALCU LATION METH ODS ON ENERG Y CONSUMPTIONSTAN DAR DS OF ATMOSPHERIC &VACUUM DISTI LLATION UNIT陈 淳1,李少萍2,张一安2CHEN Chun 1,L I Shao 2ping 2,ZHAN G Y i 2an 2(1.茂名石油化工设计院,广东茂名525011; 2.华东理工大学石油加工研究所,上海200237)(1.M aomi ng Pet rochemical Design Instit ute ,M aomi ng 525011,Chi na ;2.Pet roleum Processi ng Research Instit ute of East Chi na U niversity of Science and Technology ,S hanghai 200237,Chi na )摘要:针对加工进口轻质原油数量逐渐增加的发展趋势,选择了11种有代表性的原油,根据生产实际确定了合理的能量回收条件、水电汽消耗、加热炉效率等操作参数,依据两种能耗计算基准———热量平衡法和窄点约束法,计算并比较了11种原油的能耗结果。
关 键 词:原油;常减压蒸馏装置;能耗;基准中图分类号:TE62412 文献标识码:AAbstract :Based on the trend of increasing imported light crude oils ,the energy consumption of atmo 2spheric &vacuum distillation unit has been calculated on 11representative crude oils.Reasonable en 2ergy recovery condition ,consumption of water ,electricity and steam and the efficiency of furnace have been proposeded according to the actual production situations.Two calculation methods of ener 2gy consumption have been adopted.The first one was completely based on energy balance ,and the pinch theory was introduced in the second calculation method.The energy consumption of atmospher 2ic 2vacuum distillation unit has been calculated by these two methods with ASPEN PL US software.K ey w ords :crude oil ;atmospheric &vacuum distillation unit ;energy consumption ;standard常减压蒸馏装置是各炼油厂耗能较多而又不可缺少的装置,围绕常减压蒸馏装置计算能耗问题的研究主要有两个方面:其一是对能量回收系统的研究,如“窄点理论”,以降低能耗,减少成本、提高综合经济效益为目标;其二是对蒸馏能耗基准的研究,如埃克森公司的“能量标准因子”[1]、中国石油化工集团公司的“常减压蒸馏装置基准能耗”[2]等,以合理评价常减压蒸馏装置节能水平为目标。
Canonical-Corr
模型解釋— 模型解釋—求解典型權重2
權重較大的變數對典型相關函數的貢獻亦 較大。 較大。 權重的正、負號，代表關係之正反向。 權重的正、負號，代表關係之正反向。 利用權重大小來解釋變數的相對重要性或 貢獻大小要相當審慎。例如， 貢獻大小要相當審慎。例如，權重小可能 代表該變數沒什麼關聯，也可能是因該變 代表該變數沒什麼關聯，也可能是因該變 數與其他變數具有共線性而造成。 數與其他變數具有共線性而造成。 具有共線性而造成
bj = R 1 R xy a j xx R 1R yx b j yy
λj
aj =
λj
通常典型權重在0.3以上 即具有顯著的 通常典型權重在0.3以上，即具有顯著的 解釋能力 因變數之間可能會具有相關，因此利用典 因變數之間可能會具有相關，因此利用典 型權重來解釋變數的貢獻程度可能不妥。 型權重來解釋變數的貢獻程度可能不妥。
max 1 λ2 = R 2 = ∑ U 2i V2i n
s.t. ru2u1 = 0 rv1v1 = 0
ru2v1 = 0 rv2u1 = 0
典型相關分析 10
求解典型相關係數5
r = R yx R xy = R R yx R R xy = R R xy R R yx
2 1 yy 1 xx 1 xx 1 yy
典型相關分析
13
選擇典型相關之組數— 選擇典型相關之組數—顯著性檢定1
巴氏(M. 巴氏(M. S. Bartlett，1941)的V統計值檢定 Bartlett，1941)的
當抽取了r個顯著的典型相關係數之後，剩下來的 抽取了r 顯著的典型相關係數之後， 典型相關係數的檢定方式： 典型相關係數的1
X1 X2 X3 …... Xm1 S11 或b1 X之線性 之線性 組合構面 Rdu/v R2 Y之線性 之線性 組合構面 Rdv/u …... …... S21 或a1 …... …... Y1 Y2 Y3 …...
丙烯酸酯树脂折光指数的计算及与半实验值的比较
June 2011现代化工第31卷增刊（1）Modern Chemical Industry 2011年6月丙烯酸酯树脂折光指数的计算及与半实验值的比较夏宇正，石淑先，刘辉，陈晓农（北京化工大学碳纤维及功能高分子教育部重点实验室，北京100029）摘要：测定了不同种类的丙烯酸酯树脂及其水凝胶的透光率，利用Fresnel 关系式，经近似推导得到树脂折光指数的半实验值；利用基团贡献法计算了聚合物的理论折光指数；并将得到的理论值、半实验值和文献值进行了比较。
关键词：丙烯酸酯树脂；折光指数；透光率中图分类号：O631．2；TQ320．1文献标识码：A 文章编号：0253－4320（2011）S1－0134－03Comparison of refraction index of poly （acrylic ester ）experimentedand calculatedXIA Yu-zheng ，SHI Shu-xian ，LIU Hui ，CHEN Xiao-nong（Key Laboratory of Carbon Fiber and Functional Polymers ，Ministry of Education ，Beijing University of Chemical Technology ，Beijing 100029，China ）Abstract ：Poly （acrylic ester ）hydrogels are widely used in intraocular lens and contact lens due to their excellent optical properties and biocompatibility．The refractive indexes of polymers and their hydrogels are derived approximatelyfrom the Fresnel relationship and the values of measured light transmittance．Furthermore ，those are calculated by means of the effect of radicals on gram-molecule refraction index．These kinds of the refraction index of poly （acrylic ester ），experimented or calculated or referenced ，are compared．Key words ：poly （acrylic ester ）；refractive indexes ；light transmittance收稿日期：2010－12－30作者简介：夏宇正（1962－），男，博士，副教授，主要从事功能高分子材料的研究，010－64444904，xiayz@mail．buct．edu．cn ；石淑先（1971－），女，博士，副研究员，主要从事生物环境材料的研究通讯联系人，010－64442634，shisx@mail．聚丙烯酸酯水凝胶因其优异的光学性能和生物相容性而广泛用作人工晶状体及隐形眼镜材料，因此透光性能和折光性能的研究是眼科用丙烯酸酯树脂的重要研究内容［1－2］。
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3 Canonical metrics for semi-ample canonical bundle 3.1 Canonical metrics on canonical models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Existence and uniqueness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Canonical measures on algebraic manifolds of non-negative Kodaira dimension 4.1 Canonical measures on surfaces of non-negative Kodaira dimension . . . . . . 4.2 Ricci-flat metrics on K¨ ahler manifolds of zero Kodaira dimension . . . . . . . 4.3 K¨ ahler-Einstein metrics on algebraic manifolds of general type . . . . . . . . . 4.4 Algebraic manifolds of positive Kodaira dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 Uniqueness assuming finite generation of the canonical ring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 The K¨ ahler-Ricci flow 5.1 Reduction of the normalized K¨ ahler-Ricci flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 K¨ ahler-Ricci flow on algebraic manifolds with semi-positive canonical l-Ricci flow and minimal model program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Adjunction formulas for energy functionals 6.1 Generalized constant scalar curvature K¨ ahler metrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Asymptotics of the Mabuchi energy by the large K¨ ahler structure limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
n
−1
i,j =1
gi¯ j, j dzi ∧ dz¯
where ω (t, ·) is a family of K¨ ahler metrics on X , Ric(ω (t, ·)) denotes the Ricci curvature of ω (t, ·) and ω0 is a given K¨ ahler metric. Let X be a minimal algebraic manifold. If the canonical line bundle KX of X is ample and ω0 represents [KX ], it is proved in [Ca] that (1.1) has a global solution ω (t, ·) for all t ≥ 0 and ω (t, ·) converges to a unique K¨ ahler-Einstein metric of on X . Tsuji showed in [Ts1] that (1.1) has a global solution ω (t, ·) under the assumption that the initial K¨ ahler class [ω0 ] > [KX ]. This additional assumption was removed in [TiZha], moreover, if KX is also big, ω (t, ·) converges to a singular K¨ ahler-Einstein metric with locally bounded K¨ ahler potential as t tends to ∞ (see [Ts1, TiZha]). If KX is not big, the Kodaira dimension of X is smaller than its complex dimension. In particular, when X is a minimal K¨ ahler surface of Kodaira dimension 1, it must be a minimal elliptic surface and does not admit any K¨ ahler-Einstein current in −c1 (X ), with bounded local 2
Contents
1 Introduction 2 Preliminaries 2.1 Kodaira dimension and semi-ample fibrations 2.2 Iitaka fibrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Analytic Zariski decomposition . . . . . . . . 2.4 Complex Monge-Amp` ere equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 6 6 8 8 9 10 10 16 21 21 22 23 28 37 42 42 43 50 51 51 52
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Research supported in part by National Science Foundation grants DMS-0604805 and DMS-0302744.
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1 Introduction
It has been the subject of intensive study over the last few decades to study the existence of K¨ ahler-Einstein metrics on a compact K¨ ahler manifold, following Yau’s solution to the Calabi conjecture (cf. [Ya2], [Au], [Ti2], [Ti3]). The Ricci flow (cf. [Ha, Ch]) provides a canonical deformation of K¨ ahler metrics in K¨ ahler geometry. Cao [Ca] gave an alternative proof of the existence of K¨ ahler-Einstein metrics on a compact K¨ ahler manifold with trivial or negative first Chern class by the K¨ ahler-Ricci flow. However, most algebraic manifolds do not have a definite or trivial first Chern class. It is a natural question to ask if there exist any well-defined canonical metrics on these manifolds or on varieties canonically associated to them. Tsuji [Ts1] applied the K¨ ahler-Ricci flow and proved the existence of a canonical singular K¨ ahler-Einstein metric on a minimal algebraic manifold of general type. It was the first attempt to relate the K¨ ahler-Ricci flow and canonical metrics to the minimal model program. Since then, many interesting results have been achieved in this direction. The long time existence of the K¨ ahler-Ricci flow on a minimal algebraic manifold with any initial K¨ ahler metric is established in [TiZha]. The regularity problem of the canonical singular K¨ ahler-Einstein metrics on minimal algebraic manifolds of general type is intensively studied in [Zh, EyGuZe1]. In this paper, we propose a program of finding canonical measures on algebraic varieties of positive Kodaira dimension. Such a canonical measure can be considered as a birational invariant and it induces a canonical singular metric on the canonical model, generalizing the notion of K¨ ahler-Einstein metrics. Let X be an n-dimensional compact K¨ ahler manifold. A K¨ ahler metric can be given by its K¨ ahler form ω on X . In local coordinates z1 , ..., zn , we can write ω as ω= √