股票外汇技术分析英文版11

What pattern do you see?
“Run” “Bump”
Fibonacci, one of the greatest mathematicians of all time discovered a sequence of numbers which are now used across many disciplines
Each section of your index finger, from the tip to the base of the wrist, is larger than the preceding - fitting the Fibonacci numbers 2, 3, 5
and 8. By this scale, your fingernail
Draw rays that intersect at 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2%
At the second extreme point, draw a vertical line
Once a reversal occurs, it tends to find support at Fibonacci levels!
Black-eyed Susan
Ordinary field daisies have 34 petals – a fact to be remembered when playing “she loves me, she loves me not”! (with 34 petals, you will always finish with “she loves me not!”)
Elliott Waves consist of 5 moves with the trend (1,3,5 are impulse, 2,4 are corrective) and 3 that are against the trend. A “5-3” wave cycle

Monetary Approach
Technical analysis is not concerned with the causes of market movements. Instead, technical analysis focuses on the movements themselves. Is there information in past price movements that can be used to predict future movements?
Chart analysis begins with a time series plot of an asset’s price
Charts can be hourly, daily, weekly, etc.
Higher frequency data wபைடு நூலகம்ll be more detailed, but noisier
Connect two consecutive highs to get the upper channel
A “breakout” indicates a new pattern forming
Bullish channels tend to have upward breakouts
Find the trend by connecting at least two highs
Large price swings tend to occur on “Fibonacci times”! (times could be in days, months, years, etc)
Elliott Waves
Elliot wave theory relies on cycles within cycles
Put another 1X1 square next to it
Now, put a 2X2 underneath
Now, add a 3X3 square
Connect the corners of the squares and you get the golden spiral…look familiar??
FIN 40500: International Finance
Beyond the Fundamentals; Technical Analysis
Fundamental analysis focuses on economic/financial theory and various economic indicators to explain market movements
These numbers seem to appear a lot in nature…
One
Two
Three
White Calla Lily Five
Euphorbia Eight
Trillium Thirteen
Buttercups (By far the most common)
Bloodroot
Chart Analysis Quantitative Methods
The forecasting equation for a technical analysis would be something like this
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$/Euro: Weekly data over 3 years
The “Bump”: Increase in trend by more than 50%
Two lows identify the “lead in” trend
The head is the first advance past the left shoulder
The left shoulder is the first high above the current trend
A chartist looks for patterns in the to identify resistance (upper bounds) and support levels (lower bounds)
Old Support level
New Support level
A parallel line through a recent low becomes the lower support
1/1 = 1 2/1 = 1 3/2 = 1.5 5/3 = 1.667
8/5 = 1.6 13/8 = 1.625 21/13 = 1.615 34/21 = 1.619
The ratios converge to 1.618
Now, suppose that we divide each number into the previous number 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ………
First, draw a trend line
Draw arcs that intersect the trend at 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2% of the high (these will indicate future supports)
Draw an initial trend line between two extreme points
Grand Super cycle Super cycle Cycle
Each cycle consists of 5 moves with the trend (1,3,5 are impulse, 2,4 are corrective) and 3 that are against the trend. A “5-3” wave
Math is everywhere!!
Anyways, back to technical analysis. Many of the technical methods are based on PHI (.618) and powers of .618
.618 .382 = .618*.618 .236 = .618*.618*.618
Two lows complete the triangle “Breakout” occurs at the apex, usually with increasing volume
Ascending triangles usually have upward breakouts
The “Run”: A breakout from the lead in trend
is 1 unit in length.
Similar ratios are seen between your hand and forearm…coincidence?
Suppose that we divide each number into the following number 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ………
1/1 = 1 1/2 = .5 2/3 = .667 3/5 = .6
5/8 = .625 8/13= .615 13/21 = .619 21/34 = .617
The ratios converge to .618
1.618 1.618 AND
1 1.618 .618
Suppose that we begin with a 1X1 square
The right shoulder is the first high following the reversal
Two lows identify the “lead in” trend The neckline connects the two shoulders and indicates lower support
Take a pineapple…hmmm…look at the various spirals formed
Every human has 2 hands with 5 fingers on each. Each finger is made of 3 segments connected by 2 joints…don’t these numbers sound familiar?
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Trade Balance Approach Price Level Approach
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Interest Rate Approach


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Suppose that you begin with a pair of rabbits:
Rabbits take one month to mature. Once mature, they can breed
offspring
Offspring come in pairs (one male and one female). A pair of
offspring are born each month
The rabbits never die
Now
1 Month
2 Months
3 Months
One Pair (Y)
One Pair (M)
Two Pair (M, Y)
Three Pairs (M, M, Y)
Y = Young, M = Mature
Can you find the Pattern?
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ……
Each number in the Fibonacci sequence is the sum of the previous two 1+ 1 = 2 1+2=3 2 + 3 = 5 ….