英语翻译

Dynamics of population ageing: how can Asia and the
Pacific respond?
CONCLUSION
结论
1. Anti-poverty family planning playing an important role in ageing
计划生育脱贫政策在老龄化中扮演重要的角色
Many countries in the Asian and Pacific region are experiencingrapid ageing of their populations, reflecting declines in mortality andfertility rates. The intensity of population ageing in the region is boundto increase rapidly during the next 50 years with the share of thepopulation aged 60 and over predicted to more than double to 23.5 percent by 2050. A distinctive feature of ageing in the region is the rapidageing of populations in economies which are still developing. Forexample, the implementation of family planning as an anti-poverty measurehad a significant impact on the demographic structures of countriessuch as China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Sri Lanka.
亚洲和太平洋地区的许多国家正在经历快速的人口老龄化（阶段），这反应在死亡率和生育率的下降上。

该地区人口老龄化的速度在接下来的50年内势必会增长的很迅速，60岁及以上人口的份额预计到2050年将增加一倍以上，达到23.5%。

本区域人口老龄化的一个显著特征即发展中经济体的快速人口老龄化。

例如，计划生育政策（作为脱贫的一项措施）的实施，对诸如中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡和斯里兰卡等国的人口结构具有重大影响。

The rapid ageing of populations in developing countries could haveprofound implications for their economies and societies. The risingdemand for health-care services in old age and increasing pensionliabilities, particularly in the face of declining potential support ratios,would place the fiscal implications of ageing at the forefront. Labourmarkets could experience a shift in the supply of labour, with adverseimplications for labour productivity. The changing age structure couldalso induce a shift in the consumption and savings behaviour of people.The combined
effect of these changes would have adverse implications forcapital markets, growth and social welfare.
发展中经济体快速的人口老龄化可能会对它们的经济和社会产生深远的影响。

老年人医疗保健服务需求的上涨和养老金负债的增加，特别是面对期望抚养比下降（的情况），（发展中经济体）可能会将财政置于支付老年事业的第一线。

伴随着劳动生产率的不利影响，劳动力市场可能会在供给方面经历一个转变。

年龄结构的变化也可能会引起人们消费和储蓄行为的转变。

这些变化的综合效果将对资本市场、经济增长及社会福利产生不利影响。

2. More complex challenges for developing economies
对于发展中经济体来说，挑战更为复杂
In many countries a large proportion of older persons are poor andwork in the informal sector, without any support from formal pensionschemes in old age. In many countries, effective institutions, procedures,rules and regulations for addressing issues relating to older persons are notin place. Moreover, the changing family structure and composition in theface of urbanization, globalization and migration would have a negativeimpact on social norms in familial care, imposing pressure on theprovision of formal residential care for older persons. As a result, thechallenges faced by developing economies in the region with an ageingpopulation in the years to come would be more complex than those facedby developed economies with an ageing population.
在（亚太地区的）许多国家，老年人群中有很大部分的人是贫困的，工作在非正式部门，在年老时没有任何来自于年金制度的支持。

许多国家解决老年人相关问题的有效的制度、程序、规则和法规是不到位的。

此外，在应对城市化、全球化和移民浪潮时，家庭结构的变化会对家庭护理规范带来一个负面影响，即（家庭结构的变化）会对家庭养老的模式产生冲击。

因此，未来几年亚洲和太平洋地区的发展中国家，在应对人口老龄化方面的挑战将比发达国家还要复杂。

A balanced and holistic approach, taking into account both economicand social considerations with a view to achieving improved individualwelfare, would be necessary to respond effectively to the challenges ofageing. On the economic front, fundamental changes are needed in policydesign, particularly in health and social
security systems, to minimize thepressures on public expenditure which would have an impact on thepotential for overall growth. Pension schemes in many countries in theregion are pay-as-you-go systems with the financial burden accumulatingover time, resulting in an intergenerational transfer of liabilities and adisproportionate reduction of welfare for future generations. The implementationof multi-pillar social security structures consisting of mandated,publicly managed defined benefit schemes on an equity basis, privatelymanaged and funded defined contributory schemes for the working classand additional retirement schemes for voluntary contributions would constitutean effective and sustainable approach in addressing old-age socialsecurity. Such an approach would not only make pension schemesfinancially sustainable but also function as an anti-poverty measure.
考虑经济和社会因素的同时着力提高个人福利，这种均衡且全面的方法对于有效应对人口老龄化的挑战是必要的。

在经济方面，制定政策（特别是卫生和社会保障体系方面的政策）时需要根本的变革，即最大限度地减少公共开支的压力，这将会影响整体经济增长的潜力。

亚太地区的许多国家实施的是现收现付制的养老金计划，财政压力随着时间不断积累，结果导致养老负债的代际转移和后代在福利上的减少（待遇与缴费不相称）。

实施多支柱的社会保障模式将成为一个有效的、可持续的解决社会养老保障（中存在问题）的方法。

这个多支柱的社会保障模式包括：（第一支柱）是以公平为原则的，强制性的，待遇确定型的公共养老金计划；（第二支柱）是委托私营机构管理和运作的，基金积累制的，以劳动者为对象的缴费确定型养老金计划；（第三支柱）是其他的自愿缴费型的养老金计划。

（采用）这样的方法不仅能使养老金计划在财政上可持续，也是一项反贫困的措施。

Regulatory and market reforms to provide an enabling environment for promoting a higher level of efficiency in both the public and private sectors and the provision of incentives for innovation would be important aspects in addressing issues relating to ageing. The liberalization of labour markets to make them more flexible and boost labour supply, fiscal consolidation and policy coordination, while maintaining macroeconomic stability to withstand the pressures on social expenditures and negative effects on the economy, should be key elements in such a
policy agenda.
监管和（劳动力）市场改革为提高公共部门和私营部门的效率、实施创新激励机制提供了有利环境，这也将成为应对老龄化相关问题的重要方面。

开放劳动力市场使得（劳动者就业选择）更加灵活，增加了劳动力的供给，巩固了财政和提高了政策协调性。

在保持宏观经济稳定的同时承受住社会支出的压力及经济的负面影响，监管和劳动力市场改革应该是关键之处。

3.The MillenniumDevelopment Goalscould be abenchmark inresponding to ageing
在应对老龄化时“千年发展目标”可能是一个基准
On the social front, the promotion of health throughout life and thecreation of an environment conducive for the private sector to developalternative social security schemes such as health insurance and annuityschemes are important policy options to consider. While the promotion offamily care for the elderly by providing incentives should be a priority,the development of institutional care for the elderly by both the public andprivate sectors would also be necessary, particularly in the light of thechanging family structures and their negative impact on familial care. Thefundamental thrust of both economic and social policies should be avoidingthe elderly becoming poor, isolated and discriminated against whilemaintaining the socio-economic conditions of the public in general. TheMillennium Development Goals could provide a benchmark for both theeconomic and social policies required to face the challenges of ageing.
在社会方面，改善整个生命周期的健康状况，创造一个有利于私营部门开发替代性的社会保障计划（如医疗保险和年仅计划）的环境，是作为重要的政策选择来考虑的。

应当优先考虑通过激励手段促进家庭养老，鉴于家庭结构的不断变革和家庭护理的负面影响，公共部门和私营部门的机构养老的发展也是必要的。

经济和社会政策的基本准则是在维护一般公众的社会经济条件时，应该避免使老年人变得贫穷、鼓励和受歧视。

千年发展目标可以为经济和社会政策在应对老龄化挑战时提供一个基准。

4.Fresh look at Mode 4 of the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services needed
需要重新审视世界贸易组织的《服务贸易总协定》的四模式1
Regional and global actions could also play a key role in respondingto ageing. For example, how migration is treated at the regional and globallevels would have important implications for both ageing and non-ageingeconomies. Treating labour as a regional public good and measures for theorderly flow of labour would be necessary, particularly in the light ofincreasing international human migration in the coming decades. To theextent that population ageing could pose risks, particularly for the futurelabour supply, and international migration could play an important role inminimizing such risks, regional cooperation on human migration could be akey vehicle for harmonizing labour resources in the region. It is thusimportant to explore the possibilities of bringing international humanmigration within a global framework to ensure the orderly and rule-basedflow of persons. In this regard, a fresh look at the existing frameworks,such as Mode 4 of the WTO Agreement, would be a starting point.
在应对老龄化方面，区域性的和全球性的行动也能发挥关键作用。

例如，地区及世界对待移民的待遇如何，会对老龄化和非老龄经济产生重要影响。

尤其是考虑到未来几十年里越来越多的国际人口迁徙，把劳动力视为区域公共产品和为了劳动力的有序流动而制定政策是必要的。

在某种程度上，特别是对于未来的劳动力供给而言，人口老龄化可能带来风险。

国际移徙可以在最大限度地减少该风险中起到重要的作用。

为了区域劳动力资源协调，区域合作对人类迁移而言可能是一个关键工具。

探索全球框架指导下的国际人口迁徙的可能性，对确保有序的、有规则的人员流动是非常重要的。

在这方面，重新审视现有的框架，例如世界贸易组织的四模式协定，将是一个起点。

1《服务贸易总协定》》（General Agreement on Trade in Service，GATS）规定服务贸易有四种供应模式：跨境交付（Cross-border Supply）；境外消费（Consumption Abroad）；商业存在（Commercial Presence）；自然人流动（Movement of Natural Persons）。

PS:结论部分已经翻译完毕，未达3000字标准，因此接续前面同学未翻译完的政策回应部分。

POLICY RESPONSES
政策回应
Role of the private sector
私营部门的作用
1.Strategic public-privatepartnershipsnecessary to narrowthe gap between therich and the poor
必要的公共部门和私营部门的战略伙伴关系，以缩小贫富差距
The rapid ageing of populations in many countries in the regionwould open the door for the private sector, including NGOs, to play animportant role in addressing issues relating to ageing. The diminishingrole of Governments and the increasing influence of the private sector onsociety in a globalized world and the increasing gap between rich andpoor would necessitate strategic partnerships between the Government andthe private sector, as no single sector or organization can address issuesrelating to ageing on its own.
亚太地区许多国家的快速人口老龄化将为私营部门（的进入）敞开大门，包括非政府组织在内的私营部门，在处理老龄化的相关问题中将发挥重要作用。

在一个全球化的世界中，政府社会角色的削弱和私营部门社会影响力的增强，以及贫富差距的日益增大，迫使公共部门和私营部门建立战略伙伴关系，这是因为没有哪一个部门或组织有能力独立解决老龄化及其相关问题。

The increasing demand for health insurance, annuities and savingsinstruments and institutionalized care services for older persons wouldprovide ample opportunities for the private sector to expand its serviceswhile contributing to easing the pressure on the public sector. The role ofNGOs would be critical in providing community-based support systems forolder persons and covering gaps in public and private services.
（人们）日益增长的对健康保险、年金保险和储蓄工具及机构化的老年保健
服务的需求，将为私营部门扩大其服务提供充足的机会，同时有助于缓解公共部门的压力。

非政府组织在为老年人提供社区支持系统和填补公共服务与私人服务的缺口方面的起着至关重要的作用。

Fiscal policy
财政政策
1.Fiscal consolidationand overallmacroeconomicstability vital
财政整顿和整体宏观经济的稳定至关重要
The most important policy issue arising from an ageing populationfrom the Government’s perspective is the fiscal burden of rising publicpension and health-care expenditure. Many developing countries in theregion already have large budget deficits and the fiscal demands arisingfrom an ageing population would be an additional burden on them. Thechallenges facing the developing countries with ageing populations maythus become more difficult in the years ahead.
从政府的角度来看，人口老龄化所带来的最重要的政策问题是不断增大的公共养老金支出和医疗保健支出导致的财政负担。

亚太地区的许多发展中国家已经担负了巨额的预算赤字，人口老龄化所产生的财政要求将成为它们的一个额外负担。

伴随着人口老龄化，未来几年发展中国家所面临的挑战可能会因此而更加艰难。

In this context, effective fiscal consolidation would become animportant policy goal for developing countries in the Asian and Pacificregion. While maintaining macroeconomic stability should be a primarygoal, policy coordination to ensure the coherence and consistency ofpolicies would be essential. Taxation could be an important policyinstrument in financing social security. For example, a consumption taxearmarked for social security and care of the elderly would be an effectivemeans of raising funds in developing countries, although this mechanismmay be counterproductive in countries that are struggling to recover fromeconomic downturns. Efforts to reduce the public debt burden would benecessary not only to absorb future shocks but also to prevent the countryfrom falling into a debt trap in the face of rising public expenditure. Theprovision of an environment conducive to saving more is another optionwhich would lessen the pressure on the budget. While
the negative impactof pensions on the budget could be minimized by linking pension benefitsto contributions, that arising from health-care expenditure could be reducedto a certain extent by introducing privately managed health-care systems.
在此背景下，有效的财政整顿将成为亚太地区发展中国家的一个重要政策目标。

保持宏观经济稳定应该被视为首要目标，同时以确保政策的连贯性和一致性为目的政策协调也是必不可少的。

在社会保障筹资方面，税收可能是一项重要的政策工具。

例如，在发展中国家，征收消费税用于社会保障和老年人照料，将会是一个有效的筹资措施，然而该机制可能会在正努力摆脱经济衰退的国家适得其反。

为减少公共债务负担所做的努力是必要的，这不仅能减缓未来的动荡，还能防止国家在面对不断增加的公共支出时陷入债务陷阱。

减少财政压力的另一种选择是提供一个有利的环境，以节省更多。

可以通过把养老金待遇和贡献挂钩（的方式）来将养老金预算的负面影响降到最小化，同时还可通过引入私人管理式医疗保健系统，卫生保健支出可以减少到一定程度。

Population policy
人口政策
1.What sizepopulation isaffordable?
多大规模的人口是可负担得起的呢？
Just as the population policies of the past have played some role inthe present-day demographic dynamics, population policy could also beused to reverse rapid fertility declines. Increase in fertility, removingrestrictions on having large families and promoting early marriage couldreverse the future demographic trend. Some countries have already takensteps in this direction. For example, countries such as Singapore provideincentives such as housing priority for large and multigeneration families,flexitime for mothers to nurture their children, cash and fiscal incentives,child-care subsidies and enhanced child relief in income taxation.
正如过去的人口政策对现在的人口动态有所影响一样，人口政策也可以用来扭转生育率的迅速下降。

提高生育率，取消对大家庭的限制和鼓励早婚，可以逆转将来的人口发展趋势。

一些国家已经在朝着这个方向采取措施，例如，新加坡等国家采取诸如住房优先考虑大家庭和多代家庭，实行弹性工时制以方便母亲培
育小孩，现金和财政激励措施，儿童看护补贴和增加生育数量而减免所得税等优惠政策。

2.Population policiesneed to be carefullyplanned
人口政策需要谨慎设计
However, changing the hard-earned gains of low fertility may not bea good choice for certain countries as overcrowding could create seriousproblems. What size population can be affordable? Even with decliningfertility rates, the world population is projected to increase to over 9billion by 2050. Overcrowding in countries which already have highpopulation densities could have serious repercussions in the long run,undermining the well-being of future generations. Thus, such changesshould be implemented only through a carefully planned population policy.
然而，对某些由于人口过于庞大可能会引发严重问题的国家而言，改变来之不易的低生育率，可能并非一个很好的选择。

多大规模的人口是可负担得起的呢？即使生育率在下降，到2050年全球人口总数预计会增加到90多亿。

高人口密度、过于拥挤的国家，正在破坏着子孙后代的福祉，从长远来看可能会引发严重的后果。

因此，这样的改变只有通过一个谨慎设计的人口政策来得以实施。

Market reforms
市场改革
One of the most important aspects of policy design to face thechallenges of rapid ageing would be regulatory and market reforms thatwould provide an enabling environment for promoting higher levels ofefficiency in both the public and private sectors and raising the growth offactor productivity. Macroeconomic stability, increased competition in anopen market setting, transparency and accountability would ensure thesustainability of the dynamic gains from such reforms with a positiveimpact on growth and welfare.Such reforms could help countries totransform the ageing problem into opportunity.
为应对快速老龄化的挑战而设计的政策中最重要的一个方面将是监管和市场改革。

提供一个有力的环境以提高公共部门和私营部门的效率和要素生产力。

从这样的改革对经济增长和福利的积极影响来看，宏观经济的稳定，在一个开放
市场环境中日益激烈的竞争，透明度和问责制都将确保动态收益的可持性。

Migration policy
迁徙政策
The historical movement of natural persons indicates that internationalmigration can play an important role in offsetting many of theconsequences of population ageing and labour shortages. How canmigration policy be fine-tuned to cope with the adverse effects of ageingin labour-importing countries, while minimizing the negative effects of the“brain drain” on labour-exporting countries?
自然人流动的历史表明，国际迁徙在抵消人口老龄化和劳动力短缺所引发的诸多后果中可以发挥重要作用。

如何微调迁徙政策，以应对劳动力输入国因人口老龄化所产生的不利影响，同时还要将劳动力输出国因“人才流失”所引发的消极影响降低到最小程度？。