ERP技术与管理课件：决策理论与方法
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Compare the worst possible outcome of each alternative and select the alternative whose worst possible outcome is the least undesirable.
(Take an umbrella)
Alternative Take umbrella Do not take umbrella
State of nature
No Rain
Rain
Dry, but inconvenient
Dry
Dry, happy
Wet
6–20
Conditions for Making Decisions
A. Certainty—the decision maker knows exactly what will happen and can calculate the precise outcome for each alternative.
6–17
步骤 5：分析备选方案 Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives
评估每一个备选方案的优缺点 Appraising each alternative’s strengths
and weaknesses
这些准则是在步骤2和步骤3中建立的。
An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.
实施Implementation(通过计划、组织和领导职能有效实 施) 包括了将决策传递给有关的人员和部门，并要求他们对实 施结果作出承诺。
将选择方案付诸行动。 Putting the chosen alternative into action.
Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.
决策理论与方法
决策理论与方法概述
一、决策的概念和基本要素 二、决策的一般程序 三、决策的分类 四、决策分析原理 五、决策方法经历的三个阶段 六、决策制定模式 七、管理决策的类型 八、构成决策问题的条件
Chapter one: decision theory and method overview
6–16
步骤 4：开发备选方案 Step 4: Developing Alternatives
确定可供选择的备选方案 Identifying viable alternatives
Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.
6–15
步骤 3：为决策准则分配权重 Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria
决策准则并不是同等重要 Decision criteria are not of equal
importance:
Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.
决策准则是指对于解决问题起重要作用的因素。 Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem. 成本Costs that will be incurred (investments required) 风险Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) 产出Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)
B. Risk—the decision maker has some knowledge of outcomes and the probability of such outcomes.
C. Uncertainty—the decision maker has very little or no reliable information on which to evaluate the different possible outcomes.
决策理论学派创始人：Herbert.A.Simon
决策的要素
决策的要素
二、决策的一般程序（图表）
发现问题
确定目标
收集资料
拟订方案
追踪检查
贯彻执行
不可行 可行 优选方案
决策制定过程 The Decision-Making Process
识别决策问题 Identifying a problem 确定决策准则 Identifying decision criteria 为决策准则分配权重 allocating weights to the criteria. 开发备选方案 Developing several alternatives 分析备选方案 analyzing alternatives 选择备选方案 selecting an alternative that can resolve the
问题Problem的定义：
现实和希望状态之间的差异。 A discrepancy between an existing and
desired state of affairs.
6–9
问题的特征 Characteristics of Problems
管理者意识到问题A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.
结构性问题Structured Problems 设及的目标是明确的Involve goals that clear, 问题是熟悉的Are familiar (have occurred before), 有关问题的信息容易定义和收集Are easily and completely defined—information about the problem is available and complete,
Problems and Decisions
非结构性问题Unstructured Problems
Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.
Problems that will require custom-made solutions.
非程序化决策Non programmed Decisions
Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.
Decisions that generate unique responses.
6–12
问题的类型
决策的类型
Problems and Decisions
6–21
Uncertainty
Approach
How it Works
Optimistic or gambling approach
(maximax)
Pessimistic approach (maximin)
Choose the alternative whose best possible outcome is the best of all possible outcomes for all alternatives. (Not take an umbrella)
感到有采取行动的压力There is pressure to solve the problem.
管理者必须拥有采取行动的资源The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.
1.The concept and basic elements of decision making 2.The general procedure of decision making 3. Classification of decision making 4. Principle of decision analysis 5.The three stages of the decision-making process 6. Decision making mode 7. Types of management decisions 8. The conditions that constitute the decision-making problem
problem. 实施备选方案 Implementing the selected alternative. 评估备选方案 Evaluating the decision’s effectiveness.
6–8
步骤 1：识别问题 Step 1: Identifying the Problem
决策制定始于一个存在的问题。
6–10
问题的性质
结构性的问题：日常的、重复出现的、具 有规则性的问题。
➢ 例如：车工在操作车床中，有许多指导操作的工艺程序 卡与操作守则。
➢ 例如：对库存标准件制订定货单时，管理者可以循常规 根据预先拟定好的最高、最低储备量和定货点发出订货 通知。
非结构性的问题：
6–11
问题的类型
决策的类型
Risk-averting approach
Choose the alternative that has the least variation among its possible alternatives.
(Take an umbrella)
6–22
步骤 6：选择一个备选方案 Step 6: Selecting an Alternative
Choosing the best alternative 选择具有最高得分的方案 The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.
6–23
步骤 7：实施决策方案 Step 7: Implementing the Decision
一、决策的概念和基本要素
定义:从为了达到同一目标而提供选择的多 个行动方案中确定一个最满意的方案。
Definition:Identify one of the most satisfactory options for the multiple action options that provide a choice to achieve the same goal.
6–18
不同情形下的决策
确定——结果确定，信息充分 风险——存在多种结果，需估计其发生概率 不确定——结果不确定或不能估计其发生概率
6–19
Conditions for Making Decisions
The best decision depends on what happens later
6–24
步骤8：评估决策的效果
Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s Effectiveness
程序化决策Programmed Decision
A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.
6–13
非结构性问题
组织高层
非程序化决策
程序化决策
结构性问题
6–14
组织底层
步骤 2：确定决策准则 Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria
(Take an umbrella)
Alternative Take umbrella Do not take umbrella
State of nature
No Rain
Rain
Dry, but inconvenient
Dry
Dry, happy
Wet
6–20
Conditions for Making Decisions
A. Certainty—the decision maker knows exactly what will happen and can calculate the precise outcome for each alternative.
6–17
步骤 5：分析备选方案 Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives
评估每一个备选方案的优缺点 Appraising each alternative’s strengths
and weaknesses
这些准则是在步骤2和步骤3中建立的。
An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.
实施Implementation(通过计划、组织和领导职能有效实 施) 包括了将决策传递给有关的人员和部门，并要求他们对实 施结果作出承诺。
将选择方案付诸行动。 Putting the chosen alternative into action.
Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.
决策理论与方法
决策理论与方法概述
一、决策的概念和基本要素 二、决策的一般程序 三、决策的分类 四、决策分析原理 五、决策方法经历的三个阶段 六、决策制定模式 七、管理决策的类型 八、构成决策问题的条件
Chapter one: decision theory and method overview
6–16
步骤 4：开发备选方案 Step 4: Developing Alternatives
确定可供选择的备选方案 Identifying viable alternatives
Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.
6–15
步骤 3：为决策准则分配权重 Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria
决策准则并不是同等重要 Decision criteria are not of equal
importance:
Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.
决策准则是指对于解决问题起重要作用的因素。 Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem. 成本Costs that will be incurred (investments required) 风险Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) 产出Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)
B. Risk—the decision maker has some knowledge of outcomes and the probability of such outcomes.
C. Uncertainty—the decision maker has very little or no reliable information on which to evaluate the different possible outcomes.
决策理论学派创始人：Herbert.A.Simon
决策的要素
决策的要素
二、决策的一般程序（图表）
发现问题
确定目标
收集资料
拟订方案
追踪检查
贯彻执行
不可行 可行 优选方案
决策制定过程 The Decision-Making Process
识别决策问题 Identifying a problem 确定决策准则 Identifying decision criteria 为决策准则分配权重 allocating weights to the criteria. 开发备选方案 Developing several alternatives 分析备选方案 analyzing alternatives 选择备选方案 selecting an alternative that can resolve the
问题Problem的定义：
现实和希望状态之间的差异。 A discrepancy between an existing and
desired state of affairs.
6–9
问题的特征 Characteristics of Problems
管理者意识到问题A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.
结构性问题Structured Problems 设及的目标是明确的Involve goals that clear, 问题是熟悉的Are familiar (have occurred before), 有关问题的信息容易定义和收集Are easily and completely defined—information about the problem is available and complete,
Problems and Decisions
非结构性问题Unstructured Problems
Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.
Problems that will require custom-made solutions.
非程序化决策Non programmed Decisions
Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.
Decisions that generate unique responses.
6–12
问题的类型
决策的类型
Problems and Decisions
6–21
Uncertainty
Approach
How it Works
Optimistic or gambling approach
(maximax)
Pessimistic approach (maximin)
Choose the alternative whose best possible outcome is the best of all possible outcomes for all alternatives. (Not take an umbrella)
感到有采取行动的压力There is pressure to solve the problem.
管理者必须拥有采取行动的资源The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.
1.The concept and basic elements of decision making 2.The general procedure of decision making 3. Classification of decision making 4. Principle of decision analysis 5.The three stages of the decision-making process 6. Decision making mode 7. Types of management decisions 8. The conditions that constitute the decision-making problem
problem. 实施备选方案 Implementing the selected alternative. 评估备选方案 Evaluating the decision’s effectiveness.
6–8
步骤 1：识别问题 Step 1: Identifying the Problem
决策制定始于一个存在的问题。
6–10
问题的性质
结构性的问题：日常的、重复出现的、具 有规则性的问题。
➢ 例如：车工在操作车床中，有许多指导操作的工艺程序 卡与操作守则。
➢ 例如：对库存标准件制订定货单时，管理者可以循常规 根据预先拟定好的最高、最低储备量和定货点发出订货 通知。
非结构性的问题：
6–11
问题的类型
决策的类型
Risk-averting approach
Choose the alternative that has the least variation among its possible alternatives.
(Take an umbrella)
6–22
步骤 6：选择一个备选方案 Step 6: Selecting an Alternative
Choosing the best alternative 选择具有最高得分的方案 The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.
6–23
步骤 7：实施决策方案 Step 7: Implementing the Decision
一、决策的概念和基本要素
定义:从为了达到同一目标而提供选择的多 个行动方案中确定一个最满意的方案。
Definition:Identify one of the most satisfactory options for the multiple action options that provide a choice to achieve the same goal.
6–18
不同情形下的决策
确定——结果确定，信息充分 风险——存在多种结果，需估计其发生概率 不确定——结果不确定或不能估计其发生概率
6–19
Conditions for Making Decisions
The best decision depends on what happens later
6–24
步骤8：评估决策的效果
Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s Effectiveness
程序化决策Programmed Decision
A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.
6–13
非结构性问题
组织高层
非程序化决策
程序化决策
结构性问题
6–14
组织底层
步骤 2：确定决策准则 Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria