欧债危机 中文版
政治(人教版必修2)欧债危机
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杨澜曾经问过中国入世谈判代表之一的龙永图，15年的 WTO谈判中，为什么每当西方提出知识产权或者环境保护这 样的条款时，中国的代表往往反应会异常激烈？龙永图的答 复很坦率：“当时我们想，什么保护知识产权？知识产权 90%都在你们跨国公司手里面，都在西方国家手里面，保护 知识产权就保护你们吗？这样想好像很理直气壮。再就是保 护环境，你们过去一两百年工业化把世界的环境糟蹋成这个 样子了，你们发达了，你们现在有钱了，我们发展中国家刚 刚要建设，你们又说要保护环境？”
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3、不再怕和老外打官司
• • 4、中国企业走出去 十年过去了，当中国民营汽车企业吉利收购瑞典巨头 沃尔沃的时候，当华为、中兴等通讯设备制造商把生意做 到五大洲的时候，所罗门美邦当年的预言已经成为笑谈。 加入世界贸易组织后，绝大多数中国企业不仅没有被冲垮， 反而越来越多地开始走出国门，走向国际市场。 • 专家认为，加入WTO标志着中国的对外开放进入了 一个新的时代。这个时代的特征之一，就是越来越多的中 国企业大踏步地走出去。截至2010年底，中国对外直接 投资累计净额达3172.1亿美元，位居全球第17位。2010 年，投资流量再创新高占全球当年流量的5.2％，首次超 过日本、英国等传统对外投资大国。
中央经济会议定调经济走向
• · 经济重点：稳增长调结构促消费 立场不变微调不 少 • · 扩大内需：扩大内需特别以增加居民消费需求为 重 • · 房市新政：“盘整”将成楼市主基调 二套房贷收 紧 • · 货币政策：实施积极财政政策并适度宽松货币政 策 • · 车辆购置：小排量车购置税明年将提高按7.5%征 收 • · 家电下乡：明年继续惠政 有拆解能力条件地区推 广
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会议指出，做好明年的经济工作，要坚持统筹兼顾，切实把 握好各项目标、任务之间的平衡，稳中求进。要把稳增长、控 物价、调结构、惠民生、抓改革、促和谐更好地结合起来。 稳增长，就是坚持扩大内需、稳定外需，努力克服国内外各 种不稳定、不确定因素的影响，及时解决苗头性、倾向性问题， 保持经济平稳运行。 控物价，就是继续采取综合措施，保持物价总水平基本稳 定，防止价格走势出现反弹。 调结构，就是突出主题，贯穿主线，有扶有控，提高经济 增长质量和效益，增强发展的协调性和可持续性。 惠民生，就是把保障改善民生放在更加突出的位置，集中 解决紧迫性问题，切实办成一些让人民群众看得见、得实惠的 好事实事。 抓改革，就是以更大的决心和气力推进改革开放，着力解 决影响经济长期健康发展的体制性、结构性矛盾，在一些重点 领域和关键环节取得新的突破，以开放促改革、促发展、促创 新。 促和谐，就是正确处理改革发展稳定关系，积极有效化解 各种矛盾和风险隐患，促进社会和谐稳定。
European sovereign-debt crisis欧债危机
相关评论
“结果显示欧元区与最优货币区差距甚远” ——希腊基金经理贾森 马诺洛普洛斯 贾森·马诺洛普洛斯 贾森 “正在浮现的主权债务危机……是西方世界的财政 危机” ——英国经济学者尼埃尔·费格逊 “美元面临的处境可能比欧元还要危险 ” ——《金融时报》
中国该如何面对? 中国该如何面对
欧洲债务危机前的国内经济政策调整
Hale Waihona Puke 欧洲债务危机影响下的国内政策调整
产业升级势在必行
导语： 导语：欧元区的崩溃绝不仅仅是一场金融动荡。近一百年来欧洲人 为了欧洲避免战争和复兴的梦想也将付之一炬。
欧债危机概述
欧洲主权债务危机爆发的主要引线或导火索可以说 是希腊。即 希腊在2001年达到了欧盟的财赤率要求， 同年加入欧元区。但是， 这一过程对希腊国家而言， 所付出的代价也是相当巨大的。具体而 言，希腊为 了尽可能缩减自身外币债务，与高盛签订了一个货 币互 换协议。这样，希腊就通过货币互换协议减少 了自身的外币债务，达 到足够的财赤率加入欧元区。 但通过与高盛所签订的协议来看，希腊就必须在未 来很长一段时间内支付给对方高于市价的高额回报。 随着时间的推移，希腊的赤字率显然会走入低迷状 态，进而导致了 2009 年的主权债务危机形成。
1.金融危机中政府加杠杆化使债务 金融危机中政府加杠杆化使债务 负担加重
外部原因 欧 债 危 机
1.产业结构不平衡：实体经济 产业结构不平衡： 产业结构不平衡 空心化， 空心化，经济发展脆弱 2.评级机构煽风点火，助推危机 评级机构煽风点火， 评级机构煽风点火 蔓延
内部原因
2.人口结构不平衡：逐步进入 人口结构不平衡： 人口结构不平衡 老龄化 3.刚性的社会福利制度 刚性的社会福利制度
欧债危机（Europeandebtcrisis）
欧债危机（European debt crisis）The European debt crisis intensifiedThe spectre of a sovereign debt crisis lingers on the continentWith Greece, Ireland, Portugal's sovereign debt crisis warming, the debt crisis began to spread from the periphery to the core countries, Italy and Spain, who will be the European debt crisis, a fall of "Domino" became the talk of boiling point. As of the end of 2010, Italy's public debt to GDP ratio reached 119%, far higher than the upper limit of 60% "Maastricht treaty" provisions, in the EU after Greece 142.8%. In addition, Italy's economic growth is weak, the export growth trend is weak, the import commodity prices are soaring, and the bad economic environment makes Italy's crisis worse. Spain is also faced with the risk of being involved in the debt crisis. Data show that Spain's budget deficit in 2010 as high as 9.2% of gdp. Although the Spanish government is implementing the biggest budget cuts in 30 years, measures have also been taken to raise the retirement age and reduce the cost of layoffs. But the International Fund believes that Spain's measures to prevent the debt crisis are incomplete and face considerable risk of debt. According to reports, the financial giant Soros will blame the European debt crisis on Germany's selfishness and inaction. He believes that the German Prime Minister Merkel insisted on maintaining its own financial system security, and buried the scourge of today's European debt crisis. Italy's prime minister, Berlusconi, called on Congress to pass the austerity package as soon as possible. However, according to statistics, Italy's economy grew by 1.03% in the first quarter of 2011, and this slow economic growth could fall into recessiononce it meets fiscal austerity. If Italy seeks help from the outside world, it must tighten its economy, so it may be caught in a double predicament of recession and rising public debt. As the third and fourth largest economies in the euro area, Italy and Spain are among the most important players in the European economy, and the impact on markets is far weaker than in Greece, when debt defaults occur. In view of the fact that Italy and Spain huge foreign debt, some analysts believe that if the two countries into a debt crisis from market financing, then other EU countries will not have enough power to rescue Italy and Spain, the eurozone may therefore fall apart. From a global perspective, if the European sovereign debt crisis spread to the core countries, the global market will reverse the direction of investment, funds withdrawal from the stock market, commodity markets, access to precious metals markets, such as hedging. This will lead to an obvious fluctuation in asset prices, which may lead to a new round of financial crises. As the debt crisis in Italy and Spain approaches, the euro zone's second largest economy, France, is also facing debt risk. There are signs that market investors are shorting French sovereign bonds, and the debt crisis is pressing.Traces of American debt behind the European debt crisisBehind the European debt crisis is a deeper contest, that is, the United States and Europe are launching a war of currency dominance and debt resources. As a matter of fact, the United States continues to carry out structural authority given by its monetary hegemony". Since the birth of the euro, the euro has been one of the world's most powerful potential competitors, challenging the dollar hegemony system. First, the euro weakensthe dollar's position in international trade. For emerging market countries, the euro provides an alternative currency option to settle the dollar. As the euro area's main export commodities are competitive with the United States, the rise in the euro settlement will inevitably lead to a fall in the dollar settlement. The settlement amount is the pricing power, and the decrease of the US dollar settlement amount means the loss of the pricing power of the United States in the international market. Second, the euro hit the reserve currency position of the dollar. After the birth of the euro, the proportion of the world's total foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, while the dollar continued to decline. A statistical data according to IM F's official foreign exchange reserves, from 1996 to 2009, the dollar in international reserve position has experienced a "inverted U" trend, before the euro was formally established and at the beginning of the establishment, the dollar in international reserve status is rising, the proportion of world reserves from 1995 59% rose to 2001 by the end of 71.5%. But since 2001, the share of the dollar has fallen, and by 2010 it has fallen to 62.1%. However, the threat to the United States seems more than that, and one of the biggest challenges is the scramble for resources between American bonds and European bonds. This is perhaps the biggest concern for the United states. Under the borrowing dependent system, the US long-term international trade deficit and current account deficit can be maintained, and it needs to be guaranteed by the continuous revolving movement of U. S. dollars. To keep the dollar moving round and round, it must depend on exports from other countries in exchange for dollars,Other countries have traded dollars to invest in the UnitedStates by buying American bonds, and the dollar has returned to the United States to finance its debts. What worries the United States is that, like the United States, European countries are basically debt dependent countries". According to the IM F database, world debt issue of the number of the top ten countries, including the United States, 7 European countries and Japan and Australia, the 10 countries foreign bonds accounted for 83.8% of the world, and the eurozone bond market collection scale accounted for 45% of the world. The United States has more than 32% of the shares, this is undoubtedly the biggest challenge for the United States debt dependent system. Since the financial crisis, the Fed has become the biggest buyer of US debt and has monetized its currency through quantitative easing. Since the outbreak of the crisis, the Fed's balance sheet size increased from $899 billion 300 million in June 2007 to $27231 billion in early May 2011, is 3 times more than before the crisis. Now, the Fed is about to stop its $600 billion treasury bond purchase plan in June, and who will continue to take over such a huge debt is the biggest problem. With both the monetary and fiscal pressures on the US, only the creation of a bond that is worse than the US Treasury will allow the financial markets to choose a better one between bad and worse. So, the recent U.S. rating agencies continue to reduce Greece, Ireland, Belgium's sovereign credit rating, turns on the European debt crisis manufacturing turmoil, shorting Euro dollar, using "hedging properties" and a strong stage, the capital back into the United States, while the United States became the winner of the crisis, including Treasury and beauty shares and other institutions bonds popular dollar assets. Although the U.S. Treasury has exceeded the debt ceiling, but the 10 year Treasury yields and30 year Treasury yields hit a five month low, U.S. Treasury bonds being oversubscribed, debt financing smoothly. Between the inside and outside the pincer attack, the European debt crisis is no longer the crisis of the five European countries, the risk of the debt crisis spreading from the marginal countries to the core country is further increasing, and waiting for Europe will be a new round of debt storm. - Zhang MonanEurope's debt crisis or big bangLast weekend, Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of Commerce and Secretary General of the China International Exchange Center, said: "in order to guard against risks, China will no longer be eager to buy European debt.". China has bought a lot of European debt (about 1/4 of its foreign exchange reserves), and if the euro falls, China will suffer a huge loss. Europe can only go its own way, China can do very limited". This is a delicate and definite statement. The author believes that this is a correct decision, of course, is a painful decision - not to buy European debt, the United States can not buy more debt, China's foreign exchange reserves to buy what? From the beginning of the euro on Friday afternoon appeared Powei trend, although the U.S. payrolls data range, far less than expected, but the euro is still down after a brief recovery, which indicates that the euro will move closer to the rail under the shock City, probably in the week fell below the 14000 mark integer. The origin of the European debt crisis is the continued decline in competitiveness in the euro area. Before this competition decreased only two or three countries in line, and the debt crisis in Europe is a meeting after the rescue, theeuro zone countries have a obvious weakness. In August, economic data from the core countries of the euro zone were issued with a very negative warning, including Germany's August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index, with a final value of 50.9, expected to be 52, the lowest since September 2009. France's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was worse in August, only 49.1. German and French data show that the region's two most powerful countries, the real economy has been growing at almost zero. Although we cannot conclude that Germany and France is a country like Greece dragged down -- save people dragged down is normal, but the conclusion that Germany and France have no spare capacity to save the eurozone two or three countries, is the fact that. Without the economic support of France and France, what happens in the euro area can be expected, and a strong euro is not expected. The second reason for the inevitable occurrence of the European debt crisis is that the rescue plan is impractical. The source of the European debt crisis is the most euro zone countries are a serious violation of financial discipline, but the EU's rescue plan is that Germany and France including the European Central Bank are a serious violation of financial discipline, the use of public funds and savings deposits to buy euro zone government debt line two or three. The results, although we can not say that By no means retrievable, at least to the recipient countries to send the wrong signal, can rely on big body, creditors who. Learned from the foreign media reports, the European Central Bank (ECB) last month decided to purchase the bonds of Italy, the country clearly slow budget consolidation measures.Italy's prime minister Berlusconi's promises to cut huge public debt have gone into empty talk. German media simply said:"because the European Central Bank's intervention, resulting in Italy budget measures even more confusing.". The European Central Bank to buy the bonds of Italy, every budget measures in Italy, the country's bond yields vary due to debt purchase operations of the European Central Bank to decline, the Italy government issued a signal to reduce the deficit can relax. Therefore, the decision to buy Italy's national debt was wrong. It's not just the European central bank that made the mistake. The solution of the European debt crisis is only one, is to give up the tail, the strong euro policy. Of course, this is extremely painful, and the extent of the pain is likely to exceed that of the US subprime crisis in 2008. Third reasons why the debt crisis is inevitable happened 17 euro zone countries is a mess, but not as strong as steel making. The European debt crisis spread from Greece to Ireland, where euro zone leaders gathered countless times, and each time made a statement to the world, showing how strong the euro zone was and how powerful it was. But as soon as the meeting is over, the noise is immediately transmitted through the media, and the small action is constant. Fourth reasons why the debt crisis inevitably happened in real is the main countries of the euro zone leaders lack the political sensitivity andforward-looking, misjudge the situation. How to solve the European debt crisis? It's difficult to drag out September, and the solution is not to buy bonds of troubled countries in the euro area, nor to create what is known as the euro zone's unified bond market. The only way is docked, Greece should be expelled from the euro zone. But objectively speaking, the best moment has been missed, because Italy, the euro zone third, which is much larger than Greece, will have an accident, followed by Spain, Portugal, ireland. To save it, the euro zone has no suchstrength. The last way is to push the euro zone high debt countries selling assets to repay, but the price is only suihangjiushi. The market would work only if the offer was lower, which would require a fall in the euro! To be sure, the ultimate solution to the European debt crisis is to be assessed after the euro crash. Today, the euro has fallen below the European Central Bank's defense line 13850, the lowest drop to 13386, will need at least 15% decline in the future. What about China? Only to see, can not buy, do not want to cover. Foreign exchange reserves are "cocktail", the euro is relative to other currencies down, the euro fell, the dollar will rise, and other currencies will rise. We can be thankful that holdings of euro assets are not many, 1/4 foreign exchange reserves in value, another 3/4 of the reserves in the appreciation of the euro, even if we suffer greatly, loss is not big. The problem is that the euro can not be bought in the future, and the foreign exchange reserves can not continue to increase substantially. The lessons of the European debt crisis tell us not only about the problems in the euro zone countries, but also that the currencies of almost all countries in the world are unreliable. The sure solution is not to expand the reserves indefinitely, but to spend the reserves.The spread of the European debt crisisThe European debt crisis is spreading to the core of the euro zone, this time in france. Moodie, a prominent rating agency, has warned that in the next 3 months whether to consider the French Treasury AAA rating "negative" will be considered". Negative observation is often the prelude to a downgrade. Moodie said in a statement, as with other euro zone sovereigncountries, France's financial position has weakened; the global financial and economic crisis in France, led to the financial indicators is the worst in other AAA countries. At present, a total of 6 countries enjoy the euro area AAA rating, namely France, Germany, Holland, Finland, Austria and Luxemburg, France's highest level of debt. IMF said public debt in France would reach 85% of GDP in 2011 and high in the world class AAA countries. The spread between French and German bunds widened to a record 93.2 basis points in October 17th, compared with just 29 basis points in April. A new wave of pressure on the French rating was largely caused by the exposure of its banking system to sovereign debt in Europe, as well as increased bailouts for other countries. The European Union is preparing to require European banks to increase the size and quality of their core capital, and the government will inject capital into substandard banks. Besides its own burden, France, the second largest economy in the euro area, is the second largest contributor to EU bailout funds. The euro zone is now studying how to expand the size of EFSF's borrowing to prevent a larger economy, such as Italy and Spain, into a crisis, which will add to the burden on public finances in france. In addition, the French economic growth situation also makes public finances not optimistic. In October 18 Pakistan Lu admitted that the forecasts for 2012 GDP growth of 1.75% will be too optimistic.Faubion Zulegdze, the chief economist at the European Policy Centre, argues that France is not very different from Spain in terms of its economic growth potential. The pressure on France's sovereign rating will make it harder for the euro zone to respond to the debt crisis. At present, the AAA rating of EFSF is based on the rating levels of the various fundedcountries, so Moodie also said in 17, if France suffered a downgrade, EFSF's highest rating will be questioned. In response, Europe is working to advance the permanent crisis response mechanism, the European stability mechanism (ESM). The most important feature of ESM is that it enjoys the status of an international institution like IMF without the impact of the investor rating. As scheduled, ESM will replace EFSF in the summer of 2013, but now Europe hopes to advance it by a year, at least in 2012。
欧债危机PPT
爱尔兰
2010年11月21日 爱尔兰向 欧盟和国际货币基金组织 (IMF)提出一揽子金融援
助请求获得欧盟批准。 2010年12月 评级机构下调
多个国家评级， 欧债危机再度掀起高潮。
欧债危机PPT
严 重？
超 标 ？
欧债危机PPT
第四阶段：欧债危机——升级
2011年3月16日 穆迪将葡 萄牙的债务评级下调两 档至A3，由此导致长期 利率暴涨。标普也下调 其主权信用评级，10年 期政府债券利率高于8%
2009年12月 三大
评级机构接连下 调希腊主权信用 评级，希腊债务 危机爆发。
欧债危机PPT
第二阶段：欧债危机——蔓延
¨ 2010年1月11日 穆迪警告葡萄牙，若不采取有效措施控制 赤字，将调降该国主权评级。
¨ 2010年2月9日 欧元空头头寸已增至80亿美元，创历史最高 纪录。2010年2月10日 巴克莱资本表示，美国银行业在希 腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙及西班牙的风险敞口达1760亿美 元。
欧债危机PPT
第五阶段：欧债危机——继续
¨ 2011年6月29日 希腊国会通过了总额280亿欧元的财政紧 缩方案。2011年6月30日，希腊国会通过了财政紧缩实施 细则与国有资产私有化方案。上述两个方案的通过为希腊 获得新的贷款援助奠定了基础。
¨ 2011年7月21日 欧元区领导人就希腊债务危机新一轮救助 方案达成一致意见，同意通过欧洲金融稳定基金EFSF，向 希腊再提供1090亿欧元的贷款，并将贷款利率由现行的 4.5%降低为3.5%，还款期限由现在的7年半延长到最少15 年，最多30年。
¨ 2010年3月3日 希腊公布48亿欧元紧缩方案。
¨ 2010年4月23日 希腊正式向欧盟及IMF提出援助请求。
欧债危机 汉英翻译 yxl
Europe’s Sovereign Debt Crisis欧债危机The Greek debt crisis is spreading. Europe needs a bolder, broader solution—and quickly希腊债务危机正在蔓延。
欧洲急需一个果敢又全面的方针。
There comes a moment in many debt crises when events spiral out of control. As panic sets in, bond yields lurch sickeningly upwards and fear spreads to shares and currencies. In September 2008 the failure of once-stellar Lehman Brothers almost brought down the world’s banking system. A decade earlier, Russia’s chaotic default （违约）on its sovereign debt rocked the credit markets, felling Long Term Capital Management, a hugely profitable American hedge fund. When the unthinkable suddenly becomes the inevitable, without pausing in the realm of the improbable, then you have contagion（接触传染，金融风暴）.很多债务危机都会有局面失控的时候。
随着恐慌产生，公债利息一路猛涨，股市和汇市随即一片恐慌。
2008年9月，美国明星投行雷曼兄弟的丢盔弃甲差点把整个世界的银行系统拖下水。
欧债危机中英文讲稿
欧债的开始December 2009 the three largest credit rating companies downgraded Greece's sovereign rating, then the Greek debt crisis intensified, but the financial community that the Greek economy is small, the debt crisis will not expand.● December 8, 2009 Fi tch credit rating of Greece lowered from A-to BBB +, outlook negative.● December 15, 2009 the Greek government bonds sold 2 billion euros.December 16, 2009 Standard & Poor's will be Greece's long-term sovereign credit rating from "A-" down to "BBB +".● December 22, 2009 Moody's December 22, 2009 announced that it would cut Greece's sovereign rating from A1 to A2, the rating outlook to negative欧债的发展Other European countries are also in crisis, including Belgium, the outside world that the more stable countries, and strong economic strength of the euro area, Spain, the high budget deficits are forecast the next three years, Greece has been the protagonist of non-crisis, the European Union have been debt-crisis.● January 11, 2010 Moody's warned Portugal failure to take effective measures to control the deficit will cut the national debt credit rating.● February 4, 2010 the Spanish Ministry of Finance pointed out that Spain in 2010 will account for fear of the overall public budget deficit of 9.8% of GDP.● February 5, 2010 debt crisis sparked fears of 6% of Spain's stock market plunge the day, record the largest decline in 15 months.欧债的升级Greek Finance Minister said that Greece is required before May 19 of about 90 billion euros to weather the crisis. EU finance ministers reached an 10 am up to 750 billion euros of the total stabilization mechanism to prevent the crisis from spreading.● April 23, 2010 Greece formally applied to the EU and IMF assistance● May 3, 2010 German cabinet approved € 22.4 billion aid plan● 10 May the EU approved 750 billion euros Greek aid program, IMF may provide 250 billion euros to aid Greece欧债危机的影响Faced by countries such as Greece's sovereign debt problems, the euro exchange rate from December 2009 onwards all the way down, to April 27, 2010, the euro-dollar exchange rate closed at its lowest point over the past year, compared with early December 2009 fell by 12.8 %. If you can not effectively solve the debt problems of countries such as Greece, difficult to restore market confidence, would further suppress the euro exchange rate. The international community generally believes that the euro has been the debt problems of Greece and other countries drag from the most difficult period since the birth.Greece, Spain, Portugal and other countries to take the radical austerity, might make the economy back into recession. According to the latest IMF forecast, in 2010, Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal, the four countries real GDP growth rate of -2%, -0.4%, -1.5% and 0.3%, the worst performance in the euro area member countries . At present, although concentrated in the Greek sovereign debt of a country, but there continues to spread the risk to other euroarea countries, Standard & Poor's on April 27, 28, a series of lower Greece, Portugal and Spain's sovereign credit rating is fueling such a panic.As the single currency area, economic imbalances within the euro area monetary policy to the implementation of a uniform manufacturing obstacles, economic recovery in the euro area member states of step with the European Central Bank relaxed monetary policy in the implementation of "exit" strategy is difficult to determine a suitable for all members of the timetable. The euro-zone countries, Greece and other debt problems exposed, dragged down the pace of economic recovery in the euro area, the ECB may also have a longer period of time the benchmark interest rate at historic lows.Since its launch the euro, with strong economic strength, has quickly become the second largest after the U.S. dollar the international currency, the euro financial crisis provides an opportunity to enhance its international status. But the debt problems of Greece and other countries undermined confidence in the euro market, if not effectively addressed as soon as possible, will seriously affect the international status of the euro and the overall stability of the euro area, euro area monetary union model will also be severely tested.IMF on April 20 and 21, has released "Global Financial Stability Report" and "World Economic Outlook", the developed countries have expressed concerns about sovereign debt risk. The IMF "World Economic Outlook report," said the short term, the main risk is that if left unchecked, the Greek sovereign debt market liquidity and solvency concerns, may evolve into a fully sovereign debt crisis, and the formation of a kinds of spreading.Solution●The first pillar: Bank capital increaseBanks need additional capital, so that it could withstand the loss and subsequent bankruptcy absorbing Greek influence. In contrast, bank capital increase is "three pillars" in the easier one. The key is to determine the bank's core tier one capital ratio.●The second pillar: Relief FundOn how to locate EFSF function divergence. France, the European Union and the United States can hope EFSF additional capital in the bank in the process, play a more central and active role. Germany believes that, should act as lender of last resort to EFSF role only in the bank itself and the national government can not provide the necessary support to problem banks, only need to come forward EFSF. In addition to the planned funding for the bank and the second round of the Greek aid measures but also to prevent the debt crisis turned into a banking crisis.●The third pillar: the Greek debt restructuringRestructuring of the Greek debt hinges on Greek government bonds held by creditors appropriate by design, so that Greece's debt sustainability, and economic growth through fiscal restraint and to make up. In the July 21 bailout program, the bank holding the bond reduction of 21%, the nominal value equivalent to the Greek debt decreased by 5%. But now is not enough. France initially objected to significantly reduce the total debt of Greece, because France is the largest of the Greek debt holders. Germany recommends a substantial reduction of the Greek debt.对中国的影响：The EU is China's largest export market. The current stage of the European crisis will have asignificant impact on China's export trade and there are sig ns that this is already happening.When the financial crisis first struck the US and Europe in 2008, China's ex ports to the EUremained unaffected. It was only in 2009 that exports to the EU suffered a large fall. This wasfollowed by a strong recovery in 2010, whi ch brought exports to the EU back up close to theirpre-crisis levels. It appe ared that the EU and Chinese exports there had returned to normal.This has turned out to be an illusion. The failure of the EU to deal with the problems it facedmerely delayed the day of reckoning.This strong growth in imports from China was sustained in the first few mo nths of this year, butmore recently it has slowed sharply. According to EU s tatistics, imports from China grew by only8.4 percent in May.This figure hides sharp differences across the member states of the EU. Chi na's exports toseveral EU countries have experienced falls in recent month s. Imports from China by Portugalfell 11.6 percent in May. In March and Apri l imports by Spain fell, although they managed asmall increase in May. The countries worst hit by the crisis are relatively small importers ofChinese go ods. Of greater significance is the UK, one of the biggest markets for China, whoseimports also went into a decline in May.It is not only the crisis-hit countries where import growth has been weakeni ng. Imports fromChina by Denmark also fell in May. Import growth in Franc e and the Netherlands has alsoslowed sharply. Even more significant is tha t the growth in imports by Germany has alsodecelerated rapidly, and in Mar ch experienced a decline for the first time since January 2010,although this was followed by two months of weak growth.While some countries in Europe, like Italy, have maintained strong import g rowth from China,this may not last much longer and the signs are multiplyi ng that China's exports to the EU arefacing severe difficulties. China's expo rts to the EU are highly cyclical. There is normally atrough in monthly expor ts early in the year, followed by a steady rise to a peak in aboutOctober. Th e main exporting season of 2011 is still ahead of us, but the most recent sig ns arenot positive, especially in those countries in severe economic difficul ties.Even if it manages to finally adopt policies to solve the crisis, many market s in the EU will notreturn to strong growth any time soon. The policies requi red to solve the crisis will imposesevere economic hardship over a number of years. This will have a long-term effect on China'sexports to the EU.Chinese exporters may have to face the prospect that unlike in 2008, there may be no quickreturn to strong growth across many markets in the EU.The author is a senior researcher with Brussels Institute of Contemporary C hina Studies.翻译：影响方面：对照上文的影响受希腊等国家面临的主权债务问题影响，欧元汇率从2009年12月起一路下跌，至2010年4月27日，欧元兑美元汇率报收一年来的最低点，较2009年12月初下跌了12.8％。
European debt crisis 欧债危机-文档资料
Spread
Germany and other leading euro-zone countries have begun to feel the impact of the crisis, the euro is facing the most severe test since the establishment
Causes of debt crisis
Industrial structure
The entity economy is hollow and the economic development is fragile.
Iture
The aging trend in the Greek is accelerated
Social welfare system
The social welfare system is so well ,so Fiscal expenditure is too huge to repay the debt in the Greek .
Details
First, the sovereign debt problem is actually a continuation of the financial crisis and deepening. Second, the duality of the euro area fiscal and monetary policy has led to sovereign debt problems. Third, the euro-zone countries is caused by internal imbalances the underlying causes of debt problems. Fourth, the EU's external debt crisis, structural contradictions are factors in the system.
欧债危机The_European_Debt_Crisis222
What are the effects of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis（ ESDC）?
• Affect the stability of the euro currency • Drag on euro area economic development • To extend the time for the euro monetary policy easing • Stability position of the euro and the euro zone will be tested • Threat to global economic and financial stability
If potential lenders or bond purchasers begin to suspect that a government may fail to pay back its debt, they may demand a high interest rate in compensation for the risk of default. A dramatic rise in the interest rate faced by a government due to fear that it will fail to honor its debt is sometimes called a sovereign debt crisis.
Belgium, Spain, other European countries began to fall into crisis and non crisis in Greece has been the protagonist.
欧债危机资料
4月23日
希腊正式向欧盟与IMF 申请援助
2008
2010
2010
1月，穆迪警告葡萄 牙若不采取有效措 施控制赤字将调降 该国债信评级。
2月5日债务危机引发 市场惶恐，西班牙股 市当天急跌6%，创下 15个月以来最大跌幅
5月10日欧盟批准 7500亿欧元希腊援
助计划，IMF可能提 供2500亿欧元资金救 助希腊。
4.欧元地位和欧元区稳定将经受考验
欧元已成为仅次于美元的第二大国际货币，但希腊等国的债务问题损害了市场对欧元的信 心，如果不能够尽快有效解决，将严重影响欧元的国际地位和欧元区的整体稳定性。
5.威胁全球经济金融稳定
IMF融稳定报告》和《世界经济展望报告》中表达了对发达国家主权债务风险的担忧。短 期内的主要风险是，如果不加控制，市场对希腊主权债券流动性和偿还能力的担忧，可能 会演变成一次充分的主权债务危机，并形成某种蔓延之势。
11月3日帕潘德里欧 撤回全民公投提议。
11月10日欧洲央行前 副行长帕帕季莫斯被 任命为希腊新任总理
11月15日，意大利10年期国 债收益率再度跨过7%的警戒 线，这被认为是不可持续的， 而法国同期国债与德国国债的 收益率之差也创下了1999年 欧元诞生以来的新高。
2011
2011
2011
2011
评级机构不断调低主权债务评级
2011年7 月末，标普已经将希腊主权评级09 年底的A-下调到了 CC级（垃圾级），意大利的评级展望也在11年5月底被调整为负 面，继而在9月份和10月初标普和穆迪又一次下调了意大利的主 权债务评级。葡萄牙和西班牙也遭遇了主权评级被频繁下调的风 险。
政策的不匹配
7月21日欧元区通过 紧急峰会再向希腊提 供1090亿欧元贷款的 第二次援助。
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欧洲各国现状
PIIGS现状
（PIIGS—欧债风险最大的五个国家英文名称第一个字母的组合）
• 希腊——债务状况江河日下 • 爱尔兰——债务恐继续增加 • 葡萄牙——债务将超经济产出 • 西班牙——危险的边缘 • 意大利——债务状况严重
欧洲债务危机
开端
发展
蔓延
升级
全球三大评 级公司下调 希腊主权评 级，希腊的 债务危机随 即愈演愈烈。
1.影响 欧元币 值稳定
5.威胁 全球经 济金融 稳定
2.拖累欧 元区经 济发展
3.延长欧 元区宽松 货币政策 的时间
影响
4.欧元地 位和欧 元区稳 定将经 受考验
作为单一货币区，欧元区内部经济失衡给执行 统一货币政策制造了障碍，欧元区各成员国经 济复苏的步调不一致，使欧央行在实施宽松货 币政策“退出”策略时很难确定一份适合所有 成员的时间表。而希腊和其他一些欧元区国家 暴露出来的债务问题，拖累了欧元区经济复苏 的步伐，也使欧洲央行可能不得不在更长的时 间内把基准利率维持在历史低点。
1.影响 欧元币 值稳定
5.威胁 全球经 济金融 稳定2.拖累Biblioteka 元 区经济发展影响
4.欧元地 位和欧 元区稳 定将经 受考验
3.延长欧 元区宽松 货币政策 的时间
希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙等国采取的激进财政紧 缩政策，可能使其经济重新陷入衰退。根据IMF 最新预估，2010年，希腊、西班牙、爱尔兰和 葡萄牙四国实际GDP增长率为-2％、-0.4％、1.5％和0.3％，是欧元区成员国中表现最差的几 个国家。目前，尽管主权债务问题集中在希腊 一国，但也存在继续扩散至其他欧元区国家的 风险，标普公司在4月27日、28日接连降低希腊、 葡萄牙和西班牙的主权信用评级更是助长了这 种恐慌。
1.影响 欧元币 值稳定
5.威胁 全球经 济金融 稳定
2.拖累欧 元区经 济发展
3.延长欧 元区宽松 货币政策 的时间
影响
4.欧元地位 和欧元区 稳定将经 受考验
欧元自启动以来，凭借雄厚的经济实力， 已迅速成为仅次于美元的第二大国际货币， 金融危机为欧元提升国际地位提供了机遇。 但希腊等国的债务问题损害了市场对欧元 的信心，如果不能够尽快有效解决，将严 重影响欧元的国际地位和欧元区的整体稳 定性，欧元区货币联盟模式也将经受严峻 考验。
第一支柱：银行增资 银行需要补充资本，让其能够承受损失并吸纳希腊破产的后续影响。
相对而言，银行增资是“三大支柱”中较容易的一个。其关键是要确定银行 核心一级资本的比例。
第二支柱：救助基金 对如何定位EFSF的功能，分歧较大。法国、欧盟和美国均希望EFSF能
够在银行补充资本的过程中，发挥更加核心和积极的作用。德国则认为， 应当让EFSF充当最后贷款人的角色，只有在银行自身以及本国政府不能提 供必要的支持给有问题的银行时，才需要EFSF出面。除了计划中的为银行 注资及第二轮希腊救助措施外，还要防止债务危机演变成银行业危机。
2.拖累欧 元区经 济发展
1.影响 欧元币 值稳定
5.威胁全球 经济金融
稳定
影响
4.欧元地 位和欧 元区稳 定将经 受考验
3.延长欧 元区宽松 货币政策 的时间
IMF在4月20日和21日先后发布的《全球金 融稳定报告》和《世界经济展望报告》中， 都表达了对发达国家主权债务风险的担忧。 IMF在《世界经济展望报告》中说，短期内 的主要风险是，如果不加控制，市场对希腊 主权债券流动性和偿还能力的担忧，可能会 演变成一次充分的主权债务危机，并形成某 种蔓延之势。
第三支柱：希腊债务重组 重组希腊债务的关键，在于对债权人持有的希腊政府债券进行适当减
计，使希腊的债务可持续，并通过财政约束和经济增长来弥补。在7月21 日的救助方案中，对银行持有的债券减计21%，按面值计算相当于将希腊 债务减少了5%。但现在远远不够。法国最初反对大幅减计希腊债务，因法 国是希腊债务最大的持有人。德国则建议大幅度削减希腊债务。
5.威胁 全球经 济金融 稳定
2.拖累欧 元区经 济发展
影响
4.欧元地 位和欧元 区稳定将 经受考验
3.延长欧 元区宽松 货币政策 的时间
受希腊等国家面临的主权债务问题影响，欧 元汇率从2009年12月起一路下跌，至2010年 4月27日，欧元兑美元汇率报收一年来的最低 点，较2009年12月初下跌了12.8％。如果不 能够有效解决希腊等国家的债务问题，市场 信心难以恢复，会进一步打压欧元汇率。国 际社会普遍认为，欧元已经被希腊等国的债 务问题拖入自诞生以来的最困难时期。
欧元区
• 定义：欧洲联盟成员中使用欧盟的 统一货币——欧元的国家区域
• 条件：欧元区的货币政策和利率水平由欧洲央行决定，各 国将不能根据自身的情况调整其经济。
• 成员国(17个)：德国、法国、意大利、 荷兰、比利时、卢森堡、爱尔兰、 希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利、 芬兰、斯洛文尼亚、塞浦路斯、 马耳他、斯洛伐克、爱沙尼亚
根源
欧元区财政货币政策二元性从而导致了主权债 务问题的产生。 （借钱过度）
欧元区各国（如PIIGS国家）内部经济失衡是引 发债务问题的深层原因。 （还钱能力差）
欧盟内外部的结构性矛盾是债务危机爆发的制 度性因素。 （发展不平衡）
危机产生的原因
• 首先，主权债务问题实际是本次金融危机的延续和深化。一般来说，经济繁荣 期，私人部门的负债相对较高，而每次危机之后，政府的财政赤字都会出现恶 化。美国次贷危机引发全球经济衰退，也点燃了欧洲暗藏于风平浪静海面下的 巨大债务风险。各国为抵御经济系统性风险的救市开支巨大，部分国家多年财 政纪律松弛、控制赤字不力，使得目前欧元区16国平均赤字水平超过6％，各国 财政赤字过高和债务严重超标直接引发了本次债务危机（见下表）。
•
2010年4月23日 希腊正式向欧盟
与IMF申请援助
•
2010年5月3日 德内阁批224亿
欧元援希计划
•
2010年5月10日 欧盟批准7500
亿欧元希腊援助计划，IMF可能提供
2500亿欧元资金救助希腊
危机产生的原因
肆无忌惮的借钱，当自身还钱能力受到质疑，危机就这样产生了！
诱因
09年12月全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权评级， 使其陷入财政危机，欧元兑美元大幅下跌。
比利时、西 班牙等欧洲 其它国家也 开始陷入危 机，希腊已 非危机主角。
德国等欧元 区的龙头国 都开始感受 到危机的影 响，整个欧 元区正面对 成立以来最 严峻的考验。
欧盟成员国 财政部长达 成了一项总 额高达7500 亿欧元的稳 定机制，避 免危机蔓延。
开端
2009年十二月全球三大评级 公司下调希腊主权评级，希腊的 债务危机随即愈演愈烈，但金融 界认为希腊经济体系小，发生债 务危机影响不会扩大。
预算赤字占GDP的5.5%
•
2010年2月9日 欧元空头头寸已
增至80亿美元 创历史最高纪录
•
2010年2月10日 巴克莱资本表示，
美国银行业在希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄
牙及西班牙的风险敞口达1760亿美
元
升级
• 希腊财政部长称，希腊在5月19日之 前需要约90亿欧元资金以度过危机。 欧盟成员国财政部长10日凌晨达成 了一项总额高达7500亿欧元的稳定 机制，避免危机蔓延。
部分欧洲国家经常项目盈余占GDP比重
危机产生的原因
• 另一方面，迫于政党和工会组织的压力，希腊等国多年来过度提高工资和养老金等社会福利 待遇水平，随着人口老龄化加速，这不仅给政府带来巨大的财政压力，也提高了单位劳动成 本，使希腊在与亚洲低成本国家的竞争中不断处于劣势，长时间的积累导致政务债务和对外 债务不断攀升。我们用1999-2008 年部分欧洲国家的单位劳动成本和财政赤字占GDP比重的散 点图，结果发现劳动力成本相对较高的国家，财政赤字也较高（见图2）。随着经济全球化 和贸易一体化进程的加速，面对亚洲市场的竞争，以往传统的劳动密集型制造业优势尽失。
危机产生的原因
• 其次，欧元区财政货币政策二元性导致了主权债务问题的产生。一方面，欧元区财政政策的溢出效 应干扰了统一货币政策的运作，分散的财政政策和统一的货币政策使得各国面对危机冲击时，过多 依赖财政政策，而且有扩大财政赤字的内在倾向；另一方面，欧元区长期实行的低利率政策，使希 腊等国能够尽享获得低廉借贷，促进国内经济增长，掩盖了其劳动生产率低但劳动成本高等结构性 问题。经济危机下这些问题日益凸显，希腊和西班牙等国越来越难越履行债务，最终引发大规模违 约。
• 最后，国际炒家的投机炒作加速了本次债务危机。10年前，高盛公司帮助希腊政府掩盖真实 债务问题而加入欧元区，2002年起，诱使希腊购买其大量CDS等金融衍生产品，导致当前债 务危机。危机后，大肆沽空投机欧元，在金融衍生品的助涨下，希腊贷款成本飙升，危机被 放大蔓延至整个欧元区。
1.影响欧 元币值 稳定
2009年12月8日 惠誉将希 腊信贷评级由A-下调至BBB+， 前景展望为负面。
2009年12月15日 希腊发售 20亿欧元国债。
2009年12月16日 标准普尔 将希腊的长期主权信用评级由 “A－”下调为“BBB＋”。
2009年12月22日 穆迪09年 12月22日宣布将希腊主权评级 从A1下调到A2，评级展望为负 面。
发展
欧洲其它国家也开始陷入危机， 包括比利时这些外界认为较稳健 的国家，及欧元区内经济实力较 强的西班牙，都预报未来三年预 算赤字居高不下，希腊已非危机 主角，整个欧盟都受到债务危机 困扰。
2010年1月11日 穆迪警告葡 萄牙若不采取有效措施控制赤字 将调降该国债信评级。
2010年2月4日 西班牙财政 部指出，西班牙2010年整体公共 预算赤字恐将占GDP的9.8% 。
小组成员： 国经091 沈丽佳 徐雯 朱巧燕 王骁飞 陈昭华
欧盟（EU）
前身：欧洲共同体 总部：布鲁塞尔 统一机构：理事会