【经典】货币增长和通货膨胀 主要内容：货币市场均衡货币的供给曲线和货币需求曲货币数量理论货币中性理论
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流动性极度紧张、利率飙升的及时反应。此外，银行信贷
增长乏力也是存款准备金率下调的重要原因。今年1月人 民币贷款增加7381亿元，大大低于1万亿元左右的市场预 期。
欧盟加息面临两难抉择
2011-02-28
提前进入加息周期
源自文库
在去年11月底发布的秋季经济预测报告中，欧盟委
员会乐观预计，欧元区今后两年的通胀压力都不大，基
Inflation rate = Money Supply Growth
How does the change in money supply affect the real GDP of the country?
当货币供给上升时, 对实际GDP的影响怎样 ?
The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality
b. The supply of money will be vertical.
Value of money
Money Supply
Price Level
Money Demand
The demand for money
Is affected by many factors: --price level价格水平 --how much people use credit cards 信用卡的普及 --how easy to get cash from an ATM machine --level of interest rate利率水平
Real variables: The total production of digital camera of China. The real GDP of China. Saving and investment of the Chinese economy.
David Hume suggested that different forces influence real and nominal variables.
In the long run, the overall price level adjusts to the level at which the demand for money and the supply of money are equal.
To show the supply and demand for money using a graph.
The Demand for Money
One variable that is very important in determining the demand for money is the price level.
货币需求曲线是向下倾斜的 A higher price level leads to a higher quantity of
a theory stating that the quantity of money available (the supply of money) determines the price level and that the growth rate in the quantity of money available determines the inflation rate.
近来，多位欧洲央行官员释放出了强 烈的加息信号。欧洲央行理事会成员、荷 兰央行行长诺特·韦林克22日说，随着欧洲 经济复苏，应考虑在未来几个月内加息， 这不仅是为了抑制通胀，也是为了避免宽 松货币政策实施过度。
Why is there inflation?
The overall increase in level of prices is called inflation.
1/P is the value of money.
When the overall price level rises, the value of money falls. Price of Orange=$1, value of $1= 1 orange Price of Orange=$5, value of $1= 0.2 orange.
Money Supply, Money Demand and Monetary Equilibrium
The value of money is determined by the supply and demand for money.
货币的供给曲线是垂直的 The supply of money is determined by the Fed. a. The quantity of money supplied is fixed.
The increase in money supply causes price level to rise, and leads to inflation.
Money supply shift right
Value of money
Money supply
Money demand
The Effects of a Monetary Injection
b. Real Variables: variables measured in physical units.
Classical Dichotomy: the theoretical separation of nominal and real variables.
Examples of nominal variables: The price of a digital camera. The nominal GDP of China. The inflation rate.
本处于欧洲中央银行为维持物价稳定所期望的水平，这
将为欧洲央行继续实施宽松货币政策以刺激经济增长留
下空间。
但欧盟统计局上月底公布的最新数据显示，欧元区
今年1月份的通胀率已升至2.4%，大幅超过欧洲央行设
定的“接近但低于2%”的目标值。
面对骤然加剧的通胀压力，外界普遍预计 欧洲国家央行将不得不提前迈入加息周期。
The economic variables should be divided into two groups: nominal variables and real variables.
a. Nominal Variables: variables measured in monetary units.
money demanded. The demand for money is downward sloping
because people want to hold more money when each dollar buys less.
The Equilibrium price level
存款准备金率今年首下调 专家称非 政策宽松信号
商报讯央行上周末宣布从2012年2月24日 起下调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金 率0.5个百分点。这是今年以来央行首次降 低存款准备金率，本次下调将释放4000亿5000亿元左右的流动性。专家认为，存准 率下调只是央行货币政策灵活性的体现， 并不意味着货币政策发生转向。
其实，市场早已存在存款准备金率下调预期，但央行为
何选择2月18日这一时点宣布消息？专家认为，银行间市
场利率暴涨或许是本次存款准备金率下调的导火索。上海
银行间同业拆借利率(Shibor)从2月14日起出现快速上涨， 隔夜利率和7天利率分别从2.9973%和3.77%飙升到 4.495%和5.179%。由于资金面紧张，银行间市场人民币 交易系统更是延时20分钟闭市。兴业银行首席经济学家鲁 政委(微博)认为，本次下调存款准备金率是对上周五市场
Shifts of the supply curve
Suppose when the money supply level is $1000 billion, the equilibrium price level is 2.
Now the money supply increases to $2000 billion, the money supply curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium price level is 4.
When prices fall, it is called deflation.
Most prices tend to rise over time.
The classical theory of inflation
古典的通货膨胀理论
The Value of Money
If P is the price level, then the quantity of goods and services that can be purchased with $1 is equal to 1/P.
1.Assume that the economy is currently in equilibrium and the Fed suddenly increases the supply of money.货币 供给增加
2.The supply of money shifts to the right. 货币供给曲线向 右移动
左边的竖轴是货币的价值 A. The left-hand vertical axis is the value of
money, measured by 1/P.
B. The right-hand vertical axis is the price level (P). Note that it is inverted ― a high value of money means a low price level and vice versa.
中国社科院金融所中国经济评价中心主任刘煜辉接受新 华社记者采访时表示，一季度之后经济有趋热倾向，经 济实际增速已经高于潜在增速，同时资产泡沫也在累积。 虽然居民消费价格指数CPI升幅尚属温和，但从央行发 布的企业商品价格等数据来看升幅已经偏快。“在以上 背景下，需要加快货币政策向常态的回归。” 刘煜辉 说。
3.The equilibrium value of money falls and the price level rises.物价水平上升
How to determine by how much the price level changes then ?
The Quantity Theory of Money
C. The demand curve for money is downward sloping. When the value of money is low (the price level is high), people demand a larger quantity of money to buy goods and services.
存款准备金率是传统的三大货币政策工具之一，通
常是指中央银行强制要求商业银行按照存款的一定比率
保留流动性。这是央行今年第三次上调存款准备金率，
调整后，大中型商业银行存款准备金率达到17%的高点。
分析人士认为，央行年内第三次上调准备金率，是货币 政策向常态的进一步回归。一方面体现出央行对当前流 动性过于充裕的担忧，另一方面则意在加强对通胀风险 的管理。
货币增长和通货膨胀
主要内容： 货币市场均衡 货币的供给曲线和货币需求曲线 货币数量理论 货币中性理论
央行三度上调准备金率 货币政策向常态化回 归
新华网北京2010年5月2日
中国人民银行2日宣布，决定自10日起上调存款类金融 机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点，农村信用社、 村镇银行暂不上调。
增长乏力也是存款准备金率下调的重要原因。今年1月人 民币贷款增加7381亿元，大大低于1万亿元左右的市场预 期。
欧盟加息面临两难抉择
2011-02-28
提前进入加息周期
源自文库
在去年11月底发布的秋季经济预测报告中，欧盟委
员会乐观预计，欧元区今后两年的通胀压力都不大，基
Inflation rate = Money Supply Growth
How does the change in money supply affect the real GDP of the country?
当货币供给上升时, 对实际GDP的影响怎样 ?
The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality
b. The supply of money will be vertical.
Value of money
Money Supply
Price Level
Money Demand
The demand for money
Is affected by many factors: --price level价格水平 --how much people use credit cards 信用卡的普及 --how easy to get cash from an ATM machine --level of interest rate利率水平
Real variables: The total production of digital camera of China. The real GDP of China. Saving and investment of the Chinese economy.
David Hume suggested that different forces influence real and nominal variables.
In the long run, the overall price level adjusts to the level at which the demand for money and the supply of money are equal.
To show the supply and demand for money using a graph.
The Demand for Money
One variable that is very important in determining the demand for money is the price level.
货币需求曲线是向下倾斜的 A higher price level leads to a higher quantity of
a theory stating that the quantity of money available (the supply of money) determines the price level and that the growth rate in the quantity of money available determines the inflation rate.
近来，多位欧洲央行官员释放出了强 烈的加息信号。欧洲央行理事会成员、荷 兰央行行长诺特·韦林克22日说，随着欧洲 经济复苏，应考虑在未来几个月内加息， 这不仅是为了抑制通胀，也是为了避免宽 松货币政策实施过度。
Why is there inflation?
The overall increase in level of prices is called inflation.
1/P is the value of money.
When the overall price level rises, the value of money falls. Price of Orange=$1, value of $1= 1 orange Price of Orange=$5, value of $1= 0.2 orange.
Money Supply, Money Demand and Monetary Equilibrium
The value of money is determined by the supply and demand for money.
货币的供给曲线是垂直的 The supply of money is determined by the Fed. a. The quantity of money supplied is fixed.
The increase in money supply causes price level to rise, and leads to inflation.
Money supply shift right
Value of money
Money supply
Money demand
The Effects of a Monetary Injection
b. Real Variables: variables measured in physical units.
Classical Dichotomy: the theoretical separation of nominal and real variables.
Examples of nominal variables: The price of a digital camera. The nominal GDP of China. The inflation rate.
本处于欧洲中央银行为维持物价稳定所期望的水平，这
将为欧洲央行继续实施宽松货币政策以刺激经济增长留
下空间。
但欧盟统计局上月底公布的最新数据显示，欧元区
今年1月份的通胀率已升至2.4%，大幅超过欧洲央行设
定的“接近但低于2%”的目标值。
面对骤然加剧的通胀压力，外界普遍预计 欧洲国家央行将不得不提前迈入加息周期。
The economic variables should be divided into two groups: nominal variables and real variables.
a. Nominal Variables: variables measured in monetary units.
money demanded. The demand for money is downward sloping
because people want to hold more money when each dollar buys less.
The Equilibrium price level
存款准备金率今年首下调 专家称非 政策宽松信号
商报讯央行上周末宣布从2012年2月24日 起下调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金 率0.5个百分点。这是今年以来央行首次降 低存款准备金率，本次下调将释放4000亿5000亿元左右的流动性。专家认为，存准 率下调只是央行货币政策灵活性的体现， 并不意味着货币政策发生转向。
其实，市场早已存在存款准备金率下调预期，但央行为
何选择2月18日这一时点宣布消息？专家认为，银行间市
场利率暴涨或许是本次存款准备金率下调的导火索。上海
银行间同业拆借利率(Shibor)从2月14日起出现快速上涨， 隔夜利率和7天利率分别从2.9973%和3.77%飙升到 4.495%和5.179%。由于资金面紧张，银行间市场人民币 交易系统更是延时20分钟闭市。兴业银行首席经济学家鲁 政委(微博)认为，本次下调存款准备金率是对上周五市场
Shifts of the supply curve
Suppose when the money supply level is $1000 billion, the equilibrium price level is 2.
Now the money supply increases to $2000 billion, the money supply curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium price level is 4.
When prices fall, it is called deflation.
Most prices tend to rise over time.
The classical theory of inflation
古典的通货膨胀理论
The Value of Money
If P is the price level, then the quantity of goods and services that can be purchased with $1 is equal to 1/P.
1.Assume that the economy is currently in equilibrium and the Fed suddenly increases the supply of money.货币 供给增加
2.The supply of money shifts to the right. 货币供给曲线向 右移动
左边的竖轴是货币的价值 A. The left-hand vertical axis is the value of
money, measured by 1/P.
B. The right-hand vertical axis is the price level (P). Note that it is inverted ― a high value of money means a low price level and vice versa.
中国社科院金融所中国经济评价中心主任刘煜辉接受新 华社记者采访时表示，一季度之后经济有趋热倾向，经 济实际增速已经高于潜在增速，同时资产泡沫也在累积。 虽然居民消费价格指数CPI升幅尚属温和，但从央行发 布的企业商品价格等数据来看升幅已经偏快。“在以上 背景下，需要加快货币政策向常态的回归。” 刘煜辉 说。
3.The equilibrium value of money falls and the price level rises.物价水平上升
How to determine by how much the price level changes then ?
The Quantity Theory of Money
C. The demand curve for money is downward sloping. When the value of money is low (the price level is high), people demand a larger quantity of money to buy goods and services.
存款准备金率是传统的三大货币政策工具之一，通
常是指中央银行强制要求商业银行按照存款的一定比率
保留流动性。这是央行今年第三次上调存款准备金率，
调整后，大中型商业银行存款准备金率达到17%的高点。
分析人士认为，央行年内第三次上调准备金率，是货币 政策向常态的进一步回归。一方面体现出央行对当前流 动性过于充裕的担忧，另一方面则意在加强对通胀风险 的管理。
货币增长和通货膨胀
主要内容： 货币市场均衡 货币的供给曲线和货币需求曲线 货币数量理论 货币中性理论
央行三度上调准备金率 货币政策向常态化回 归
新华网北京2010年5月2日
中国人民银行2日宣布，决定自10日起上调存款类金融 机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点，农村信用社、 村镇银行暂不上调。