红土镍矿加工生产镍铁-青岛会议-江新芳 rev.1

Stainless Steel Production In China 中国不锈钢产量
8000 7000 6000 5000
kt
4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2006年，中国不锈钢产量530万吨，消费量600万吨;预计2007年的产量将突破700万吨;
Introduction of Ferro-nickel / NPI Production from Laterite Nickel Ore in China 中国利用红土镍矿加工生产镍铁的现状
Jiang Xinfang– Tsingshan Holding Group
Stainless Steel Production and Nickel Demand in China 中国不锈钢生产用镍状况
1257kt
-0.1%
1381kt
+9.9%
1421kt
+2.9%
Difference 镍供求差
+26kt
-26kt
+35kt
Global Nickel Supply and Demand 全球镍的供求状况
25 20.1 20 15.4 15 10 5 8 5.7 -0.1 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -1.8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2005 2006 2007
LME现货镍月均价（美元/吨） LME Nickel Cash Settlement Ave. $/t
2007年中国镍矿进口价格 Nickel Ore Import Price in China 2007
0 2004 2005 2006 2007
30.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007
中国不锈钢业镍消费量 Nickel consumption of Stainless Steel Production in China
中国不锈钢业初级镍/次级镍消费比例 Percentage between primary and secondary Ni for stainless steel production in China
2007年中国镍矿市场价格 Nickel Ore Import Price in China 2007
+258%
250 200
225美元/湿吨
50000
40000
美元/吨
150
30000
100
20000
50 0 1月 2月 5月 8月 11月
10000
2007年中国红土镍矿市场价格
Laterite Ore market Price in 2007
In 2006, stainless steel production and consumption reached over 5,300,000 ton and 6,000,000 ton respectively;

中国不锈钢产业的快速发展，将持续带动着中国镍资源消费量的增长;
Continuously rapid development in China creates fast increasing consumption of Ni in China.
2007年中国进口镍矿来源地 Origin of Nickel ore Imported in 2007 China
6%
3% 38%
53% 印尼 菲律宾 新喀里多尼亚 其它
07年中国进口镍矿中的91%为来自菲律宾和印尼的红土镍矿。 In 2007, over 90% of nickel ore imported in China is from Philippine and Indonesia
Stainless Steel Consumption in China 中国不锈钢消费情况
25% 22.5% 21.2% 20% 19.3% 15.8% 13.5% 10% 13.4% 10.8% 10.9%
15%
5% 2000

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
07年中国的不锈钢消费依然强劲，保持10%以上的增长率;
Global Nickel Supply and Demand 全球镍的供求状况
2005
05/04 （%）
2006
06/05 （%）
2007
07/06 （%）
Global Nickel Supply 全球镍供应
1283kt
+2%
1355kt
+5.6%
1456kt
+7.5%
Global Nickel Demand 全球镍需求
受07年下半年不锈钢减产，400系产量增加因素的影响，07年中国不锈钢业的镍消费量增长率 较06年有大幅度的减少。不锈钢生产商优先考虑使用初级镍、镍生铁，次级镍使用比例减少。 Due to stainless steel production cut and 400 percentage increase, nickel consumption increase rate is reduced in 2007. Stainless steel producers prefer to use primary Ni.
‘0000t
150 100 50 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月
07年上半年中国大量进口镍矿，07年7月份月进口量达228万吨，创下最高历史纪录，而1-7月进口 量同比增长827.10%！8月份开始镍矿进口量显著下滑。 Staring from first half 2007, nickel ore import increased dramatically, and the monthly import historically reached 2,280,000 ton in July, and then dropped in August.
26 25 146 261
90 25 148 341
07年中国镍进出口量基本与06年持平。 07年中国镍生铁产量大幅度增加，预计来自镍生铁的供 镍量将超过90,000吨。 In 2007, Nickel import and export are in similar quantity as in 2006; nickel from NPI will be over 90,000 ton in 2007.
2007年5~6月，进口红土镍矿市场价格创下225美元/湿吨的历史高位纪录，比年初增 长了3.5倍！ In May and June, market price of laterite ore reached 225 $/t, increased by 3.5 times comparing with the price in the beginning of 2007. 相对于2006年初，镍价在2007年5月涨幅高达258%，给不锈钢生产商带来巨大的成本 压力，从而促使价格相对低廉的镍生铁生产激增，大量小高炉和电炉转向生产镍生铁， 导致红土镍矿的需求预期激增，推动红土镍矿价格走高。 Comparing with the beginning of 2006, LME Nickel price increased by 258% in May 2007, which create big cost pressure to stainless steel producers, and promote the explosive increase of NPI. Many small electric furnaces and blast furnace were turn to the production of NPI. The high demand expectation pushed the market price of laterite to historically zenith.
22
KT
-9.2 -12.4 -18 -13
2005
2006
2007
2007年上半年，全球镍供应基本保持平衡；下半年，受替代品增加、不锈钢减产和镍生 铁的影响，镍供应可能过剩。 In 1st half of 2007, global nickel market was balanced; in the 2nd half, nickel was estimated as oversupplied due to substitution, stainless steel production reduction and nickel pig iron production increase.
中国不锈钢业镍需求状况
Nickel Demand of Stainless Steel Production
70.0%
300 247
317
61.1% 60.3% 62.6%
67.2%
Primary Ni
kt
50.0%
kt
200 151 100 103
38.9%
39.7%
Secondary Ni
37.4% 32.8%
澳大利亚 Austrlia 13%
非洲 Africa 8%
菲律宾 Philipinne 16%
中南美 C&S America 11% 印度尼西亚 Indonesia 16% 加勒比 Carribean 7%
2007年中国镍矿进口 Nickel Ore Import in 2007
250 200
228万吨
中国镍供应情况 Ni Supply in China
2005 中国传统生产商 Traditional producers in China 镍生铁 / NPI 出口 / Exportation 进口 / Importation 合计 / Total 19 119 198 99 2006 114 2007 128
中国红土镍矿的进口 Import of Laterite Nickel Ore in China
全球镍资源储量分布 World Land Nickel Resource
硫化镍矿/sulfide 28%
红土镍矿/Laterite 72%
资源 Resource (M Ton) 硫化镍矿 Sulfide 红土镍 Laterite 合计/Total 10500 12600 23100
China will maintain a growth over 10% in 2007;
中国不锈钢生产已经能够满足国内需要; 2007年上半年，出口量快速增加,第二季度时进出口持平； 受出口税政策、市场疲软等因素影响，07年下半年的出口量将会下降。

Chinese stainless steel market become self sufficient. In first half of 2007, exportation increased significantly, and import and export reach balance in Q2; export in second half 2007 will decrease due to tax rebate policy and weak demand.
镍含量 Ni Content % 0.58 1.28 0.97%
纯镍（百万吨） Ni MT 62 161 223
比例 % of total 27.8 72.2 100
红土镍矿资源的分布 World Nickel Laterite Resource
其它/otቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱers 2% 亚欧地区 Asia & Europe 3% 新喀里多利亚 New CAL 24%

受到LME镍价6-8月暴跌47%，不锈钢减产的影响，镍铁价格下滑并滞销，10%小高 炉和电炉倒闭，50%以上停产；红土镍矿积压港口，价格下跌，库存最高时达500万 吨。 Following the nickel price drop from June to August by 47%, stainless steel production was greatly cut, the demand of NPI was suddenly reduced；10% small furnaces were bankrupt and over 50% furnaces were forced to shut down, and high stock appears at main ports, with stock record over 5,000,000 ton