2016世界银行非洲电力行业概况

Largest find offshore Egypt (30 tcf, equivalent to 40% of country’s proven reserves) Huge relief for domestic market
Gas: New frontier markets?

Gas: avoid flaring and promote regional trade
8
Potential: Abundant Low Carbon, Low Cost Energy Resources

283 GW of technical hydropower potential (=1200 TWh/year of power) One of Africa’s most promising drivers for green growth Only a fraction of Africa’s hydropower has been developed Major reserves of Natural Gas West: Nigeria, Gulf of Guinea East: Mozambique, Tanzania 15+ GW of Geothermal potential African Rift Valley Over 1,000 GW of Wind and Solar Needs to be economically dispatched with attentive siting and infrastructure
10
Opportunity: Gas to Power
Gas: promising discoveries in 2016

Gas: Game-changer?

25 – 50 tcf potential in Senegal Successful exploration /appraisal in Mauritania
30 countries face regular interruption of
services Sales lost (interruptions): 6% formal, 16% informal sector
Nearly 80% of households rely on solid



Source: IEA
6
Energy Financing Challenge To Be Addressed Enormous investment needs: $9-10* bln. invested yearly in SSA against $40 bln. needed for universal access by 2030 High tariffs do not cover cost
12 countries account for 90% of capacity
27 have grid-connected power systems smaller than 500MW 14 smaller than 100MW Few economies of scale Large energy resources remain undeveloped
1500 1200 900 600 300 0
0.15 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0
SSA
East Asia
SSA
0
100 75 50 25 0
5
Source: World Bank
Mounting Energy Needs

Currently, about 1-2 GW of new installed capacity deployed yearly, against 6-7 GW needed Power requirements will double by 2030 and treble by 2040 Access growing ~1% per year in the last decade At this rate, less than 60% of Africans will have electricity in their homes by 2030 – less than today!
East Asia
USA
OECD
Total
*Total investment power generation plants, SSA excl. South Africa, 1990–2013
7
Contents
Section I – Africa Energy Sector Overview
Section II – Potential & Opportunities Section III – WB’s Program Section IV – Deep Dive on Solar PV in Africa Summary: Scope for collaboration

Private investment in SSA energy sector = 1% of private investment in emerging economies / developing regions (vs. 34% for South Asia) Six SSA countries concentrate 80% of private investments (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania, Senegal) Engagement mainly through IPPs
South Asia
East Asia
South Asia
South Asia
Electricity consumption
(kWh per capita per year)
Power prices
(US$ per kilowatt-hour)
South Asia
SSA
East Asia
SSA
East Asia
Bln. ($) debt and equity GW added % of total GW % of total investment

0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 Africa
Average historic cost Average residential tariff
biomass for cooking 500,000 deaths per year attributed to indoor pollution
Source: IEA and World Bank
3
Power Generation Capacity in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) Highly Concentrated
of which ± 80 GW in Sub Saharan Africa (= to Republic of Korea) 600 million people (70% of population) and 10 million SMEs lack energy access Excl. South Africa, con sumption is 1% of OECD levels Energy supply not in pace with GDP growth and outpaced by demand growth
Country Nigeria Sudan Ghana DRC Mozambique Ethiopia Zambia Zimbabwe Kenya Tanzania Côte d’Ivoire Angola Cameroon MW 7,044 3,038 2,812 2,444 2,382 2,094 1,985 1,970 1,766 1,659 1,521 1,509 1,238



180 tcf proven reserves in Nigeria, half is associated gas. Still significant flaring Some other pockets with upsides (Cameroon 5 tcf, Congo 4 tcf, Ghana 1.5 tcf). Regional trade potential with WAGP
Section IV – Deep Dive on Solar PV in Africa
Summary: Scope for collaboration
2
Africa Energy (Un)Balance: Low Supply & Low Access
Installed generation capacity is ±145 GW,

Type of investment* Public IPPs China ODA, DFI, and Arab funds
15.9 7.0 5.0
8.7 4.8 3.3
43.7 24.0 16.5
50.7 22.2 16.0
3.5
31.4
3.2
19.8
15.9
100.0
11.2
100.0
South Asia
4
Performance of SSA Power Sector Global Outlier
Generation capacity
(MW per million population)
Electrification rate
(Percentage of households)
600 400 200

Private sector not systematically engaged

Few poor unconnected households can afford a connection at current tariff levels Yet, utilities rely on government subsidies
Huge undeveloped discoveries (128 tcf Mozambique, 47 tcf Tanzania) Non-associated gas, LNG. Timing is of the essence in a crowded global market
Sub-Saharan Africa Energy Sector
Overview & World Bank Group Program
July 2016
ContΒιβλιοθήκη Baidunts
Section I – Africa Energy Sector Overview
Section II – Potential & Opportunities Section III – WB and IFC Programs
9



Opportunity: Hydropower
6 highest potential countries: Ethiopia, Guinea, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sudan, Mozambique, Cameroon SSA power landscape is drastically changing after decades of finance scarcity. Non-traditional financiers and developers are pursuing development of most attractive sites in parallel to renewed IFI interest Hydropower still very much a public business, but private sector slowly entering O&M of new hydro stock will have to be addressed to ensure useful lifespan