德勤咨询 中国市场进入战略
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McKinsey Research
© 2004 Deloitte Consulting
2
Contents
1 China Overview & Market Trends 2 Industry Overview 3 Lessons from the Field
© 2004 Deloitte Consulting
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000 3,000 2,000
Becomes a member of
IME Launch of
China’s Open Door
Policy
Applies to join GATT
Work in GATT Working group is
suspended for two years
China has expedited economic reform in the past decade, fueling increase in GDP per capital at a rate of over 13% between 1978 to 2002
RMB 9,000
8,000
CAGR=13.65%
Sustained economic growth is foreseeable, and is forecasted to be between 7-8%
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
World
3
GDP
CAGR
2
(97-06)
1
0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
• Investment growth is likely to slow sharply in 2004-05 as the PBC seeks to tighten the supply of credit and the government begins to rein in its policy of using public-sector infrastructure spending to boost GDP growth
Accepted full convertibility for current account
transaction
Becomes a member of
WTO Concluded bilateral
market access agreement with USA
Eliminated its dual exchange
China – An Executive Overview
February 2006
Dr. Shane Tedjarati
Managing Director Deloitte Consulting - China
“The next 3 to 5 years may represent the most attractive window of opportunity for MNC’s to win in China”
GDP Grows Trend
• 2002 GDP % breakdown: 52.5% industry, 14.5% agriculture and 33% services
• China’s GDP is expected to grow by 8.4% in 2004 and 7.8% in 2005
Source: China - the race to market
Year
© 2004 Deloitte Consulting
4
Economic Environment
GDP
China’s economic growth in 2003 is estimated to be 9.1%, outpacing the government expectation
rate
Байду номын сангаас
Concluded
bilateral market
Submitted
access
new tariff and agreement with
services offers
EU
Announced an overall
restructuring of SOE sector
1,000
0
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
3
A Brief History
From 1978 when China adopted the Open Door policy, Chinese economy has experienced astonishing growth
For the first time in history, China’s GDP per capita exceeded US$1000 (year 2003)
Actual The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates and forecasts
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Note: The data of 2003 is estimated by National Bureau of Statistics of China
• The growth is boosted by an upturn in OECD growth and the continued relocation of manufacturing capacity from higher-cost locations
• Exports will continue to grow by more than 15% a year throughout the forecast period. However, this will still represent a slowdown from the unusually high rate of growth achieved in 2003
© 2004 Deloitte Consulting
2
Contents
1 China Overview & Market Trends 2 Industry Overview 3 Lessons from the Field
© 2004 Deloitte Consulting
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000 3,000 2,000
Becomes a member of
IME Launch of
China’s Open Door
Policy
Applies to join GATT
Work in GATT Working group is
suspended for two years
China has expedited economic reform in the past decade, fueling increase in GDP per capital at a rate of over 13% between 1978 to 2002
RMB 9,000
8,000
CAGR=13.65%
Sustained economic growth is foreseeable, and is forecasted to be between 7-8%
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
World
3
GDP
CAGR
2
(97-06)
1
0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
• Investment growth is likely to slow sharply in 2004-05 as the PBC seeks to tighten the supply of credit and the government begins to rein in its policy of using public-sector infrastructure spending to boost GDP growth
Accepted full convertibility for current account
transaction
Becomes a member of
WTO Concluded bilateral
market access agreement with USA
Eliminated its dual exchange
China – An Executive Overview
February 2006
Dr. Shane Tedjarati
Managing Director Deloitte Consulting - China
“The next 3 to 5 years may represent the most attractive window of opportunity for MNC’s to win in China”
GDP Grows Trend
• 2002 GDP % breakdown: 52.5% industry, 14.5% agriculture and 33% services
• China’s GDP is expected to grow by 8.4% in 2004 and 7.8% in 2005
Source: China - the race to market
Year
© 2004 Deloitte Consulting
4
Economic Environment
GDP
China’s economic growth in 2003 is estimated to be 9.1%, outpacing the government expectation
rate
Байду номын сангаас
Concluded
bilateral market
Submitted
access
new tariff and agreement with
services offers
EU
Announced an overall
restructuring of SOE sector
1,000
0
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
3
A Brief History
From 1978 when China adopted the Open Door policy, Chinese economy has experienced astonishing growth
For the first time in history, China’s GDP per capita exceeded US$1000 (year 2003)
Actual The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates and forecasts
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Note: The data of 2003 is estimated by National Bureau of Statistics of China
• The growth is boosted by an upturn in OECD growth and the continued relocation of manufacturing capacity from higher-cost locations
• Exports will continue to grow by more than 15% a year throughout the forecast period. However, this will still represent a slowdown from the unusually high rate of growth achieved in 2003