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US Economists Predict Consumers Will Be Cautious on Black Friday

This day is a shopper's dream.

"It's just the deals the sales and everything you can get for a lesser price," said Sandy Thomas, a shopper.

But it's a nightmare for others. "I think it's crazy. I've done all of my shopping throughout the week so I don't have to go out on Friday," she said.

It's called Black Friday, the start of the traditional Christmas shopping season in the United States.

Every year it's the day after the Thanksgiving holiday. Stores open before sunrise and there are deep discounts everywhere you look.

While the lead up to Christmas is known as the season of giving, Black Friday can get ugly.

Last year a mob of barging-hunters trampled and killed a Wal-mart worker in a New York suburb. This year, many stores are increasing security while they slash prices.

"This is a huge time for the retail stores," said Fred Joutz from George Washington University. "This is when they begin making their profits for the year."

Economics professor Fred Joutz says how Americans spend the weekend after Thanksgiving is a good indication of how consumers feel about the future.

With the unemployment rate above 10 percent, Joutz says Americans are saving more and spending less.

"Credit is still constrained whether through credit cards or through borrowing from banks," he said.

Some retailers are luring consumers by opening on Thanksgiving Day, when shops are traditionally closed. Other stores open their doors anywhere from midnight to four in the morning.

And shoppers will be lining up in front of the doors before that to be one of the first ones to walk through and get a big discount.

Electronics like flat screen TVs are usually the first items to go.

Sandy Thomas says it's an annual family tradition and well worth it. "I just save maybe half of what I would have spent on a regular, you know, shopping trip," she said.

Economists say U.S. consumers will spend money this Black Friday, but they will spend it more carefully.

Elzabeth Lee, VOA news.










Europeans Shun Swine Flu Vaccine as Deaths from Virus Increase

Concern that Europeans are shunning the vaccine against the H1N1 virus was raised this week by the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. The Swiss-based nonprofit says that as European countries roll out their vaccine campaigns, they face opposition from anti-vaccine lobbyists. It says some of these groups are deliberately spreading misinformation. Guiseppe Cornaglia is the society's former president.

"We have strong bodies of evidence from most countries in Europe in which people, including doctors, public health professionals are disseminating doubts about the validity of the vaccine," said Cornaglia. "They are worried about the possible side effects, about what they listen to from friends and the Internet because there is no official source. And they claim the need for a

vaccination is not so great to afford these risks."

In France, where a government vaccine campaign kicked off in public schools on Wednesday, a recent survey found only 21 percent of French said they planned on getting vaccinated.

European skepticism about the vaccine comes as the Stockholm-based European Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports the number of deaths in Europe due to the H1N1 virus has been doubling every two weeks since mid-October. Altogether, the center says, about 670 deaths have been reported in Europe since April.

Cornaglia, of the Microbiology society, says doctors and health authorities need to campaign more strongly to get the right information out about the vaccine.

"If the authorities cannot convince the doctors and if the doctors don't advise their own patients, the battle is lost. Because the transmission is not efficient,” The problem is possibly that the information isn't efficient enough," said Cornaglia.

If the vaccine campaign fails to take off in Europe, the society says, the swine flu pandemic may even spread more widely and cause more deaths, particularly among children and young adults.

Lisa Bryant, VOA news, Paris.









Europeans Upbeat over Obama's Climate Change Attendance

European leaders and environmentalists hailed as good news President Obama's decision to attend at least part of next month's climate summit in Copenhagen. Both Sweden - the current president of the European Union - and Denmark, which is hosting the climate talks, said the US leader's presence would boost expectations for the conference.

The European Union is at the forefront of a global push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It has pledged to cut those emissions by 20 percent of 1990 levels by 2020. By the same year, it says, 20 percent of its energy will come from renewable sources.

The Obama administration has pledged a provisional target of reducing greenhouse gasses by about 17 percent of 2005 levels by 2020 - with deeper cuts after that. The initial pledge is far less ambitious than the European one. But Mr. Obama is hamstrung by the fact the US Congress has yet to pass climate legislation.

While French Environment Minister Jean-Louis Borloo called the U.S. stance extremely encouraging, other European politicians have called on Washington to push for deeper emissions cuts.

Some also expressed disappointment that Mr. Obama was not scheduled to attend the end of the Copenhagen summit when the toughest negotiations are expected to take place. Mr. Obama is expected to arrive on December 9 - two days after the meeting starts. Joris den Blanken is European climate policy director for Greenpeace International.

"I think it's very positive that Obama announced he's coming to Copenhagen, but he's in fact coming at the the wrong day. The high-level segment in Copenhagen is the 16th and 17th of December," he said. "That's the moment where President Obama can negotiate..with Eu

ropean leaders like [German] Chancellor Merkel, President Sarkozy of France, Prime Minister Reinfeldt of Sweden. That's when it should happen," he said.

On Thursday, China announced its first detailed plan to ease carbon dioxide emissions. The State Councilsaid the country will reduce its "carbon intensity" by 40 to 45 percent by the year 2020, as compared to 2005 emission levels. It described the target as a voluntary action, and predicted it would make a "major contribution" to global efforts to deal with climate change.

Liza Bryant, VOA news, Paris.









Dubai Debt, Dollar Slide Fuel Market Slump in Asia

Here in South Korea, the KOSPI index tumbled more than four and a half percent Friday. Most other Asian stock markets were down sharply, a reaction to word that Dubai's main investment arm is having trouble servicing its debt.

State-owned investment company Dubai World, which manages much of the city-state's massive development projects, is asking creditors for a delay in repaying about $60 billion in debt.

Fears of a wider-ranging debt default affecting other banks drove Japan's Nikkei index down two percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell almost five percent.

Lee Kyoung-su, a market analyst at Taurus Investment and Securities in Seoul, says markets are worried about the possibility of a second financial crisis, like the one that began in the United States last year.

Lee says the Dubai debt crisis is not that large by itself, but may be enough to spark a chain reaction, especially in Europe, where many banks lent money to Dubai.

He says if European banks react to this by getting stricter on making loans, it could have very negative consequences.

The shakiness in world stock markets did not help the dollar, which is at levels against the yen last seen 14 years ago.

Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii described himself as "extremely nervous" Friday, after the dollar slid toward 84 yen. He says Tokyo may soon intervene in the markets, to help correct the yen's course. In the past, to halt the dollar's fall, the Bank of Japan has sold yen and bought dollars.

He says the yen's current strength reflects a skewed movement in the market, and adds it would be appropriate for Japan to take action to stabilize global financial markets.

Japan, like many Asian countries, depends heavily on exports for economic growth. When the dollar gets cheaper, it raises the price of South Korean and Japanese exports like televisions and cars, making them less competitive.

Separately, there were signs Friday Japan is losing its battle against domestic deflation. Consumer prices there fell for the eighth month, indicating the nation's economic recovery remains fragile.

Kurt Achin, VOA news, Seoul.