2010年第四季度中国消费者信心指数报告第一期

Nielsen 中国消费者China Consumer 信心指数报告2010年第一期Confidence2010 Report 1China Consumer Confidence2010Report One 2010 Report One主要研究发现Findings Highlights•最新中国消费者信心指数上升3点CCI up 3 points in China in the last wave.•消费者信心提升主要受到西部省份以及一线和五线城镇消费者推动Growth mainly driven by the West provinces/ Tier 1 and Tier 5 consumers.•对整体经济环境信心增强系消费者看好就业前景的直接结果Higher confidence in the economy is a direct consequence of better job prospects.•就业前景改善与消费者看好个人财政状况之间相互作用力强High correlation between an improved local job prospect and a better state of Chinese consumers personal finances.consumers’personal finances.•2009年中国快速消费品零售额增长率达到10%，发出经济反弹强劲信号As a result FCMG value sales growth went up 10% in November 2009, which clearly shows a strong sign of recovery.strong sign of recovery如何为2010年经济转型做好充分准备？How to best prepare the transition into 2010?•快速发展的新趋势：数字媒体Fast emerging trend: Digital media创新仍然是发展关重要的助推力•创新仍然是发展至关重要的助推力Innovation still a key driver for growth取样标准Sampling Plan•覆盖全国：四大地理区域，四个城市级别以及农村地区，包括27个城市，其中5个城市下属的25个乡、镇以及50个村National coverage: total of 27 cities with subordinating 25 counties and 50 rural villages from the selected5cities covering4geographic regions and4city tiers plus rural areas from the selected 5 cities covering 4 geographic regions and 4 city tiers plus rural areas.•城市筛选系基于国家统计局经济景气中心提供的70个城市的人口和GDP数据，通过系统的取样方法确定The city selection was conducted in systematic sampling method based on population The city selection was conducted in systematic sampling method based on population and GDP figures within the 70 cities list provided by CEMAC.•四线地级市从24个已经选出的二、三线城市中随机取样，单个乡镇不设特定的样本量F ti4iti l d d l f ll ti d th24l t d TiFor tier 4 cities, sample was drawn randomly from all counties under the 24 selected Tier2 and Tier3 cities without specific sample size for each particular county.Sample allocationSample allocationRegion Tier 1 SampleSize (3 cities)Tier 2 SampleSize (8 cites)Tier 3 HighSample Size (8cities）Tier 3 LowSample Size （8cities)Tier 4 CitiesSample Size(within 24 cities)Rural Sample Size (25towns and 50 villages)TotalEast6461002031012074571714 Middle10151101135224612 West1501001532154361054 Northeast50505063213 Total 64640140440562011173593National 全国T ie T ie消费者信心指数CCI IndexN快速消费品零售额与零售量双双强劲反弹，推动经济复苏，其中此前受金融危机影响较为严重的食品品类增幅最为明显Both Value and Volume sales are driving this recovery, more noticeably for the Food Categories gy,y g previously heavily impacted by the economic downturn. 中国快速消费品销售增长China FMCG Sales Growth China FMCG Sales Growth销售量Volume销售额Value7.7%53%6.4%6.6% 6.1%7.1%7.6%P12MP6MP3M (Sep-Nov09)3.1% 1.1%3.5%3.8%0.9%3.7%3.0%5.3% 4.3%4.8%0.5%2.6%Total FMCG FoodNon-FoodTotal FMCG FoodNon-Food所有快速消费品食品非食品所有快速消费品食品非食品全球广告趋势Global Advertising Trends 亚太地区增长率Regional growthRegional growth,Asia Pacific•全球广告市场2009年前三季度增幅达到+4.6% Advertising market closes%the nine months at +4.6%.+131%-5.7%+13.1%-14.4%-12.5%Source: Global AdView Pulse (Q3 2009)中国消费者信心持续看涨，大家已经做好准备将更多的钱用于消费Chinese consumers’ confidence is going up Consumersare nowready to spend more Consumers are now ready to spend more2010,主要新趋势是哪些？,主要新趋势是哪些What are the key emerging trends?拥有3.38亿网民的中国，无疑正在经历着一场深刻的消费习惯变革8800万中国网民曾经进行网络购物，其中三分之二消费者在最近一个月中有过网购经历With 338MM* internet users, China is certainly experiencing a profound change inconsumption habits. It is estimated that 88MM* of Chinese internet users have purchased li d l t 2thi d f th b ht d t li i th l t thonline and almost 2 thirds of these consumers bought products online in the last month.最近一次网络购物时间Last time of purchase on the internet17%3%5%6个月以前More than 6months ago months ago 4至6个月以内4-6 months ago1至3个月以内74%1-3 months ago一个月之内Less than 1month ago month ago*Source: CNNIC 24th report on internet market in China –June 2009Source: Nielsen Global Online SurveyTier 1Tier 2Tier 3+4706763Tier 1Tier 2Tier 3 4ClothingTotal676865736363696864565442565143545737575046383626253736242433382527413224221712111715128151211181111910983893117731082232323J e p -0O c t -0N o v -J A SNOV08MAR09JUL09NOV09Brand M new SKUs品牌M新单品NOV08MAR09JUL09NOV09Brand M new SKUs品牌M新单品在中国, 什么样的创新可算具有“突破性”的?What makes an innovation “disruptive”?典型“改变消费者行为”的创新可以是….Typical Behavior-Changing Innovations Can Be…创造了一个新的类别或子类别Creates new 新的销售渠道(改变了消费习惯)N i t i h l新形式提供新的益处(使消费行为改变的益处, 而不是简单的产品线扩展)Provides a new benefit category or new sub-categoryNew in certain channel (disrupting consumption)A new formNescafeProvides a new benefit(meaningfully behavior-changing benefit, not just aline extension)谢谢Thank you。