我国不良资产国有银行现状处理方法
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❖ Market share by assets (Q3, 2004)
SCOBs: 54.1% Joint-stock banks: 14.6%
2
NPLs of Four SOCBs
RMB Trillion
Figure 2: Amounts of NPLs in the Four SOCBs Reported by the PBC
❖Laeven and Majnoni (2003): in 2000, China: 3.6% and average of 106 countries: 6.67%
❖ Poor management and moral hazard 6
Capitals Raised by Chinese Companies
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Stock issue
Loan growth
314.54
6335.40
138.05
7216.62
118.86
9339.82
341.52
10683.33
933.82
10712.47
803.57
11490.94
❖ Policy loans ❖ SOEs versus private sector ❖ High level of debt of Chinese companies ❖ Interest rate control
Low base rate; lower than USA, India and Korea Low spread between the deposit and lending rates
❖ Change in maturity structure of loans
9
Growth rate of China's GDP and loans
25%
20%
21.10%
15%
16.90% 13%
10% 5%
68%%
7.30% 8%
9.10%
0% 2000
2001
2002
2003
Growth rate of loans Growth rate of GDP
10
Methods of NPL Disposal
❖ Capital injection by government ❖ Establishment of AMCs
Financing of AMCs Methods of asset disposal
❖Auction ❖Equity-debt swap ❖Asset backed securities
我国不良资产国有银行现状处理方法
Overview of China’s Banking Sector
❖ Brief history
Before 1979: PBC 1979-84: Establishment of four SOCBs 1986- : Establishment of joint-stock banks 2001- : City Commercial Banks
❖ NPLs continue to emerge in large amount
The new NPLs in the next three years will be between RMB 600 billion to 1,050 billion (Zhong, 2004).
Data source: ＩＮＦＯＢＡＮＫ
8
Reasons for the Decrease in NPLs ratio
❖ Increase in total amount of loans
In 2003, the net increase was RMB 2,770 billions (24% total loans between 1991-2003)
❖ Decrease in NPLs
Capital injection by government Transfer of NPLs to AMCs In Q2 of 2003, NPLs increased by RMB 18.3 billion after
taking into account of NPLs transfers
Increasingly more difficult
❖ Direct disposal by four SOCBs 11
NPL Disposal by the AMCs (As of end-
AMCs
NPL disposQed3,200A4ss)et recovery
Cash
rate %
recovery rate
897.39
10846.36
1541.02
13346.61
1182.13
12439.41
7
Stock issue/ Loan growth
4.96 1.91 1.27 3.20 8.72 6.99 8.27 11.55 9.50
2002
wenku.baidu.com
779.75
18979.20 4.11
2003
823.10
27702.30 2.97
ICBC
BOC
CCB
ABC
2000 2001 2002 2003
4
NPLs of Four SOCBs
Percent
Figure 4: NPL Ratio of the SOCBs
40 30 20 10
0 2000
2001
2002
Year
5
2003
ICBC BOC CCB ABC
Origins of NPLs
3 2.5
2 1.5
1 0.5
0
2001
NPLs
2002
2003
Year
Q3,2004
3
NPLs of Four SOCBs
Figure 3: Amounts of NPLs Reported by SOCBs Themselves
RMB Billion
1000 800 600 400 200 0
(%)
Huarong
1745.6
27.35
20.34
Great Wall
1832.4
15.64
10.56
Orient
966.8
29.91
21.89
Cinda
1331.4
39.15
33.20
AMCs overall 5876.2
26.79%
20.46%
(Source: PBC, CBRC)
12
NPLs and Financial Stability of China
SCOBs: 54.1% Joint-stock banks: 14.6%
2
NPLs of Four SOCBs
RMB Trillion
Figure 2: Amounts of NPLs in the Four SOCBs Reported by the PBC
❖Laeven and Majnoni (2003): in 2000, China: 3.6% and average of 106 countries: 6.67%
❖ Poor management and moral hazard 6
Capitals Raised by Chinese Companies
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Stock issue
Loan growth
314.54
6335.40
138.05
7216.62
118.86
9339.82
341.52
10683.33
933.82
10712.47
803.57
11490.94
❖ Policy loans ❖ SOEs versus private sector ❖ High level of debt of Chinese companies ❖ Interest rate control
Low base rate; lower than USA, India and Korea Low spread between the deposit and lending rates
❖ Change in maturity structure of loans
9
Growth rate of China's GDP and loans
25%
20%
21.10%
15%
16.90% 13%
10% 5%
68%%
7.30% 8%
9.10%
0% 2000
2001
2002
2003
Growth rate of loans Growth rate of GDP
10
Methods of NPL Disposal
❖ Capital injection by government ❖ Establishment of AMCs
Financing of AMCs Methods of asset disposal
❖Auction ❖Equity-debt swap ❖Asset backed securities
我国不良资产国有银行现状处理方法
Overview of China’s Banking Sector
❖ Brief history
Before 1979: PBC 1979-84: Establishment of four SOCBs 1986- : Establishment of joint-stock banks 2001- : City Commercial Banks
❖ NPLs continue to emerge in large amount
The new NPLs in the next three years will be between RMB 600 billion to 1,050 billion (Zhong, 2004).
Data source: ＩＮＦＯＢＡＮＫ
8
Reasons for the Decrease in NPLs ratio
❖ Increase in total amount of loans
In 2003, the net increase was RMB 2,770 billions (24% total loans between 1991-2003)
❖ Decrease in NPLs
Capital injection by government Transfer of NPLs to AMCs In Q2 of 2003, NPLs increased by RMB 18.3 billion after
taking into account of NPLs transfers
Increasingly more difficult
❖ Direct disposal by four SOCBs 11
NPL Disposal by the AMCs (As of end-
AMCs
NPL disposQed3,200A4ss)et recovery
Cash
rate %
recovery rate
897.39
10846.36
1541.02
13346.61
1182.13
12439.41
7
Stock issue/ Loan growth
4.96 1.91 1.27 3.20 8.72 6.99 8.27 11.55 9.50
2002
wenku.baidu.com
779.75
18979.20 4.11
2003
823.10
27702.30 2.97
ICBC
BOC
CCB
ABC
2000 2001 2002 2003
4
NPLs of Four SOCBs
Percent
Figure 4: NPL Ratio of the SOCBs
40 30 20 10
0 2000
2001
2002
Year
5
2003
ICBC BOC CCB ABC
Origins of NPLs
3 2.5
2 1.5
1 0.5
0
2001
NPLs
2002
2003
Year
Q3,2004
3
NPLs of Four SOCBs
Figure 3: Amounts of NPLs Reported by SOCBs Themselves
RMB Billion
1000 800 600 400 200 0
(%)
Huarong
1745.6
27.35
20.34
Great Wall
1832.4
15.64
10.56
Orient
966.8
29.91
21.89
Cinda
1331.4
39.15
33.20
AMCs overall 5876.2
26.79%
20.46%
(Source: PBC, CBRC)
12
NPLs and Financial Stability of China