工程项目风险管理与保险概述

Analysis of risk event evolution
• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA, 故障树) • Event Tree Analysis（ETA，事件树）
What is a fault tree ？
Is a special kind of inverted tree logic causality diagram, it USES event symbols, transfer of logic gate signs and symbols to describe a cause-andeffect relationship between various events in the system. Logic gate input output events \"because\", logic gate output is the input events \"fruit\".
name
symbol
Causal relationship
With the door
Input all events occur at the same time have a output
Or gate The forbidden door
The input as long as there is an event occurs that is output
The procedure of fault tree analysis
1. Be familiar with the system 2. Investigate accidents 3. Determine the top event 4. Determine the target value 5. Reasons for investigation 6. Draw the fault tree
工程项目风险管理与保 险概述
2020年4月26日星期日
Contents of Risk Analysis
• Analysis of risk events evolution; • Risk Evaluation for :
Ⅰ occurring probability of risk events, Ⅱ varied possible risk consequences, Ⅲ and their conditional probabilities given original event occurring.
symbol name
meaning
circular Basic event, there are enough raw data
rectangular By logic gates expressed event of failure
The diamond
Double diamond
For reasons unknown failure events
From the contractor's risk
X6: contractor bidding not honest Bidders X7: lack of business ethics The under-funded by X8: contractors X9: contractor quality is too low
Event tree analysis case
The water system of the accident event tree analysis
Probability Methods
• Using the existing data analysis risk event probability distribution
The procedure of fault tree analysis
7.Analysis 8. The accident probability 9. Comparing 10.Analysis
A Case: Typical risk
Supervision of project failure
From the owner's risk From the contractor's risk From the risk of supervision
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9
X10
X11
From the owner's risk
X1: feasibility study report lack of seriousness X2: macro management, investment deficiency The X3: blind intervention, deprived of the rights of the engineering consultant X4: don't respect contract, no respect for the rights and interests of the contractor X5: project payment does not reach the designated position or settlement in a timely manner
Have an impact oቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ the fault tree, needs further study the cause of the failure of unknown event
The room Possible failure events may not appear type
triangle Connection and the symbols
The input conditional event is output
Order the door
Input all events occur in from left to right order is output
X or gate
The input event is when only one event in the output