海螺水泥：海外布局赢未来 强烈推荐评级

公司研究

图表1：一季度公司营业收入增长-11.1%

图表2：一季度公司净利润增长-30.7%

-20%

0%20%40%60%80%0

501001502001Q 112Q 113Q 114Q 111Q 122Q 123Q 124Q 121Q 132Q 133Q 134Q 131Q 142Q 143Q 144Q 141Q 15

亿元

营业总收入

YOY

-100%

-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0.0

10.020.030.040.050.01Q 112Q 113Q 114Q 111Q 122Q 123Q 124Q 121Q 132Q 133Q 134Q 131Q 142Q 143Q 144Q 141Q 15

亿元

净利润

YOY

数据来源：Wind 、华融证券 数据来源：Wind 、华融证券

图表3： 一季度公司毛利率同比下滑6.3个百分点

图表4：一季度公司期间费用率同比上升3.1个百分点

0%

5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0%

10%20%30%40%50%1Q 112Q 113Q 114Q 111Q 122Q 123Q 124Q 121Q 132Q 133Q 134Q 131Q 142Q 143Q 144Q 141Q 15

毛利率

净利润率

0%

10%

20%

1Q 112Q 113Q 114Q 111Q 122Q 123Q 124Q 121Q 132Q 133Q 134Q 131Q 142Q 143Q 144Q 141Q 15

销售费用率管理费用率财务费用率

期间费用率

数据来源：Wind 、华融证券 数据来源：Wind 、华融证券

图表5：公司PE-BAND

图表6：公司PB-BAND

2

1222324252元

收盘价20.1X 16.5X 13.0X

9.5X

5.9X

2

7121722273237元

收盘价 2.4X 2.2X 1.9X

1.6X

1.4X

数据来源：Wind 、华融证券 数据来源：Wind 、华融证券

附表：

资产负债表利润表

单位：百万元201320142015E2016E2017E

营业收入55,261.760,758.567,320.473,917.880,200.8

营业成本37,018.140,264.344,768.148,785.853,574.2交易性投资41.020.320.320.320.3营业税金及附加296.8340.0336.6443.5401.0应收票据7,185.93,908.98,751.79,292.89,024.4营业费用2,684.52,936.83,029.43,400.23,769.4应收款项358.9333.2465.0442.3498.5管理费用2,395.82,679.92,692.83,326.33,528.8其他应收款407.6517.9888.8990.51,062.6财务费用968.5714.51,374.01,167.9992.7存货3,692.74,376.05,375.65,496.55,908.9资产减值损失160.7‐0.612.4‐31.1‐10.7其他1,682.51,789.12,146.82,447.92,701.8公允价值变动净收益8.021.3 4.39.110.7非流动资产68,470.177,156.076,977.376,502.975,688.3投资收益‐2.6‐21.427.2 1.8 1.8长期股权投资2,371.92,644.12,916.43,188.63,460.9营业利润11,742.713,823.515,138.516,836.117,957.9固定资产51,527.457,250.556,989.153,446.451,077.4营业外收入913.81,074.31,028.01,005.41,035.9无形资产6,048.16,721.66,581.46,445.16,312.6营业外支出25.314.918.820.719.9其他8,522.710,539.810,490.413,422.814,837.4利润总额12,631.314,882.816,147.717,820.718,973.8资产总计93,094.5102,253.1114,278.1124,991.1136,544.8所得税2,819.83,295.23,593.73,868.04,194.4流动负债14,545.314,397.017,763.518,357.019,230.5净利润9,811.511,587.612,554.013,952.814,779.4短期负债471.9272.40.00.00.0少数股东权益431.3594.6564.9558.1591.2应付账款3,852.54,024.95,954.26,000.66,161.0

预收账款1,261.01,092.81,360.91,525.61,637.3

其他8,959.99,006.910,448.410,830.711,432.1

长期负债19,784.018,244.818,343.218,497.818,616.3

长期借款3,731.82,104.52,104.52,104.52,104.5

其他16,052.216,140.316,238.716,393.316,511.8主要财务比率

负债合计34,329.332,641.936,106.736,854.837,846.7单位：百万元201320142015E2016E2017E 股本5,299.35,299.35,299.35,299.35,299.3同比增长率

资本公积金10,273.410,686.610,686.610,686.610,686.6营业收入20.7%9.9%10.8%9.8%8.5%留存收益40,573.249,711.458,103.867,480.077,411.8营业利润67.4%17.7%9.5%11.2% 6.7%少数股东权益2,647.23,394.63,959.64,517.75,108.8净利润51.8%18.1%8.3%11.1% 5.9%母公司所有者权益56,118.066,216.674,211.883,618.693,589.2盈利能力

负债及权益合计93,094.5102,253.1114,278.1124,991.1136,544.8毛利率33.0%33.7%33.5%34.0%33.2%

净利率17.8%19.1%18.6%18.9%18.4%现金流量表ROE16.7%16.6%16.2%16.0%15.2%单位：百万元ROIC16.8%17.4%17.9%17.6%16.9%经营活动现金流15,037.917,668.215,714.319,583.021,182.1偿债能力

净利润9,811.511,587.612,554.013,952.814,779.4资产负债率36.9%31.9%31.6%29.5%27.7%折旧摊销3,574.13,827.84,667.34,710.74,819.7流动比率 1.69 1.74 2.10 2.64 3.16财务费用968.6696.41,374.01,167.9992.7速动比率 1.38 1.36 1.72 2.26 2.77投资收益 3.325.4‐39.5‐9.4‐5.6营运能力

营运资金变动748.51,607.0‐3,092.2‐440.4328.5资产周转率0.590.590.590.590.59其他‐68.0‐76.0250.6201.3267.5存货周转率10.029.208.338.889.07投资活动现金流‐12,476.3‐4,851.1‐4,368.9‐4,134.1‐3,945.7应收账款周转率7.3214.327.307.598.42资本支出‐12,587.7‐3,337.5‐2,384.0‐2,084.0‐2,084.0每股资料（元）

其他投资111.4‐1,513.6‐1,984.9‐2,050.1‐1,861.7每股收益 1.77 2.07 2.26 2.53 2.68筹资活动现金流‐3,687.0‐2,239.3‐5,844.4‐5,303.7‐5,394.3每股经营现金 2.87 3.33 2.97 3.70 4.00借款变动‐2,404.0‐1,826.8‐272.40.00.0每股净资产10.5912.5014.0015.7817.66普通股增加0.00.00.00.00.0每股股利0.250.350.680.690.67资本公积增加‐867.6413.30.00.00.0估值比率

股利分配‐1,324.8‐1,854.8‐3,596.7‐4,018.4‐4,256.5PE13.6011.6010.649.528.99其他909.41,029.0‐1,975.3‐1,285.3‐1,137.8PB 2.27 1.93 1.72 1.53 1.36