财务风险【外文翻译】

外文翻译
原文
Financial Risk
Material Source:Essential of Financial Risk Management Author:Karen A.
H o r c h e r:
Although financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly.
The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of financial risk management.
Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.
Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit.
Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated.
Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate financial risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.
Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities,
When prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget price goods and services, and allocate capital.
There are three main sources of financial risk :first, financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices, second, financial risk arising from the actions of , and transaction with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions, third, financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systems.
Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholder, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.
Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.
Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies. It is important to understand how these strategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.
The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.
The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows : first, identify and prioritize key financial
risks ,second, determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance, third, implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy, last, measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.
Major market risks arise out of changes to financial market prices such as exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Major market risks are usually the most obvious type of financial risk that an organization faces. Major market risks include foreign exchange risk, interest rate risk, commodity price risk, equity price risk. Other important related financial risks include credit risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, systemic risk.
The interactions of several risks can alter or magnify the potential impact to an organization. For example, an organization may have both commodity price risk and foreign exchange risk, If both markets become adversely, the organization may suffer significant losses as a result.
There are two components to assessing financial risk, The first component is an understanding of potential loss as a result of a particular rate or price change, The second component is an estimate of he probability of such an event occurring.
Interest rate risk arises from several sources, including changes in the level of interest rates(absolute interest rate risk), changes in the shape of the yield curve(yield curve risk), mismatches between and the risk management strategies undertaken(basis risk).
Interest rate risk affects many organizations, both borrowers and investors, and it particularly affects capital-intensive industries and sectors.
Changes affect borrowers through the cost of funds, For example, a corporate borrower that utilizes floating interest rate debt is exposed to rising interest rates that could increase the company’s cost of funds, A portfolio of fixed income securities has exposure to interest rates through both changes in yield and gains or losses on assets held.
Absolute interest rate risk results from the possibility of a directional, or up or down, change in interest rates. Most organizations monitor absolute interest rate risk in their risk assessments, due to both its visibility and its potential for affecting profitability.
From a borrower’s perspective, rising interest rates might result in higher project costs and changes to financing or strategic plans. From an investor or lender perspective, a decline in interest rates results in lower interest income given the same investment, or alternatively, inadequate return on investments held.
The most common method of hedging absolute interest rate risk is to match the duration of assets and liabilities, or replace floating interest rate borrowing or investments with fixed interest rate debt or investments. Another alternative is to hedge the interest rate risk with tools such as forward rate agreements, swaps and interest rate caps, floors, and collars.
Yield curve risk results from changes in the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. In a normal interest rate environment, the yield curve has an upward-sloping shape to it. Longer-term interest rates are higher than shorter-term interest rates because of higher risk to the lender. The steepening of flattening of the yield curve changes the interest rate differential between maturities, which can impact borrowing and investment decisions and therefore profitability.
In an inverted yield curve environment, demand for short-term funds pushes short-term rates above long-term rates. The yield curve may appear inverted or flat across most maturities, or alternatively only in certain maturity segments. In such an environment, rates of longer terms to maturity may be impacted less than shorter terms to maturity. When there is a mismatch between an organization’s assets and liabilities, yield curve risk should be assessed as a component of the organization’s interest rate risk.
Credit risk is one of the most prevalent risks of finance and business, In general, credit risk is a concern when an organization is owed money or must rely on another organization to make a payment to it or on its behalf. The failure of a counterparty is less of an issue when the organization is not owed money on a net basis, although it depends to a certain degree on the legal environment and whether funds are owed on a net or aggregate basis on individual contracts. The deterioration of credit quality, such as that of a securities issuer, is also a source of risk through the reduced market value of securities that an organization might own.
Credit risk increases as time to expiry, time to settlement, or time to maturity increase, The move by international regulators to shorten settlement time for certain types of securities trades is an effort to reduce systemic risk, which in turn is based on the risk of individual market participants. It also increases in an environment of rising interest rates or poor economic fundamentals.
Organization are exposed to credit risk through all business and financial transactions that depend on the payment or fulfillment of obligations of others, Credit risk that arises from exposure to a counterparty, such as in a derivatives transaction, is often known as counterparty risk.
Foreign exchange risk arises through transaction, translation, and economic exposures. It may also arise from commodity-based transactions where commodity prices are determined and traded in another currency. It includes transaction risk, translation risk and strategic risk. Transaction risk impacts an organization’s profitability through the income statement. It arises from the ordinary transactions of an organization, including purchases from suppliers and vendors, contractual payments in other currencies, royalties of license fees, and sales to customers in currencies other than the domestic one. Organizations that buy or sell products and services denominated in a foreign currency typically have transaction exposure.
Management of transaction risk can be an important determinant of competitiveness in a global economy. There are few corporations whose business is not affected, either directly or indirectly, by transaction risk.
Translation risk traditionally referred to fluctuations result from the accounting translation of financial statement, particularly assets and liabilities on the balance sheet. Translation exposure results wherever assets, liabilities, or profits are translated from the operating currency into a reporting currency.
From another perspective, translation exposure affects an organization by affecting the value of foreign currency balance sheet items such as accounts payable and receivable, foreign currency cash and deposits, and foreign currency debt. Longer-term assets and liabilities, such as those associated with foreign operations, are likely to be particularly impacted.
The location and activities of major competitors may be an important determinant of foreign exchange exposure. Strategic or economic exposure affects an organization’s competitive position as a result of changes in exchange rates. Economic exposure, such as declining sales from international customers, do not show up on the balance sheet, though their impact appears in income statements.
For example, a firm whose domestic currency has appreciated dramatically may find its products are too expensive in international markets despite its efforts to reduce cost of production and minimize prices. The prices of good exported by the firm’s competitors, who are coincidentally located in a weak-currency environment, become cheaper by comparison without any action on their part.
译文
财务风险
资料来源：财务风险管理的核心作者：凯伦 A 哈克尽管在近几年，财务风险问题表现得越来越显著，但风险与风险管理并不只是当前的话题。

在市场环境中，财务风险的产生有许多的原因，受影响的因素有很多。

对于市场变化来说，信息具有时效性，这也就意味着市场环境的变化非常快。

市场经济环境很容易受到汇率的变化，利率的变化以及商品价格的变化的影响。

因此确定财务风险的种类并对其进行适当的管理就显得格外重要。

在财务风险管理中预测风险并且做好风险的防范工作是关键。

风险在可能带来损失的同时，也提供了获利的机遇。

许多学者们对于风险这个概念的认识只存在着细微的差别，共同之处在于他们认为风险代表了损失的可能性，同时也代表了获利的机遇。

风险是企业市场交易活动的产物。

无论是直接影响还是间接影响，大多数企业都面临着风险。

当某企业在进行市场交易活动时，其面临着风险，这些风险也许会给它带来损失但是同时也有可能给它带来盈利的机会。

风险的产生是市场环境中某些要素变化的结果，例如商品市场价格的变化。

那些发生概率小，但一旦发生就会给企业带来巨大损失的事件因素对于企业经营管理者来说尤其麻烦，因为这些事件因素发生率低，企业在这方面毫无准备，如果一旦发生，就会使企业束手无策，来不及应对。

既然财务风险不能被我们所消灭，那么深入了解财务风险的种类以及其所产生的原因，根据种类原因来规避防范财务风险就非常重要。

财务风险产生于交易活动中，包括买，卖，投资，贷款以及其他的经济活动。

当市场价格变动非常剧烈时，它会增加企业的成本，减少企业的收入，或者减少企业的成本，增加企业的收入。

因而市场环境的多变性使企业更加难以预测和制定商品及服务的价格和筹集资本的计划。

财务风险主要有三个方面的来源，首先是来自于市场环境的变化，例如利率的变动，汇率的变动以及商品价格的变动；其次来自于企业进行经济活动的对象，包括供应商，顾客消费者，以及关联企业的交易，第三是来自于企业内部的行为控制，特别是对于职员，过程和体系方面的控制。

财务风险管理是解决由于市场环境的不确定性而带来的变化时所采取的措施程序。

它包括对企业面临的财务风险进行衡量管理，同时也对企业内部的应对措施进行修改完善。

加强对企业财务风险的管理可以提高企业的竞争力，同
时也可以使得企业的经营管理者，职员，股东和董事会在关键的风险问题上达成一致性。

管理财务风险需要对于哪些风险是可接受的，哪些风险是不可接受的有个总体的决定。

消极的应对策略是不采取任何行动，默认一切存在的风险。

企业管理财务风险的时候会运用到多种不同的战略，因此，企业对于不同战略内容的认识，了解其取值范围与所达到的目标就非常重要。

能够准确合理估算出财务风险带来的损失的大小这个结果是令人满意的，然而在目前的较为标准的财务风险分析理论中，其运用常常得到失败的结果。

由于风险并不单单只存在于一个孤立的个体中，其更多存在于市场交易活动中，有时，这些交易活动时难以预测和估计的，因为这最终是取决于人的行为活动上。

财务风险管理是一个不间断的过程，根据市场环境的要求和变化，其战略应该不断地更新。

其更新的内容要反映对市场利率，市场交易环境，或者国际交易的政策条件变化。

总而言之，其过程可以被大致概括为以下几个方面：首先是确认财务风险，并找出对该企业影响最大的财务风险，其次是确定企业对某财务风险可接受的范围，第三是不断地补充更新财务风险战略的内容，使其与政策保持一致性，最后是衡量，报告，监督财务风险。

主要的市场风险产生于市场的变化，例如汇率的变化，利率的变化和商品价格的变化。

主要的市场风险是财务风险的一种，这是大多数企业都会面临的。

主要市场风险具体包括汇率风险，利率风险，商品价格风险，以及股票价格风险。

此外与财务风险有重要联系的包括信用风险，经营风险，流动性风险和系统性风险。

几个风险的相互作用可以改变或者放大某一企业潜在风险的影响程度。

举个例子，某一企业存在商品价格风险和汇率风险，如果此时商品价格市场和汇率市场都产生了较大的变化，那么对于这企业来说也许会产生巨大的损失。

在衡量财务风险是包括两个方面，第一是了解其潜在的损失到底是由哪种风险所带来的，比如特定基率的变动带来的还是价格变动带来的，第二是估算预测事件发生可能性的概率。

利率风险的产生有多个方面，包括利率水平的变化（绝对的利率风险），变动的收益曲线形状（收益率曲线风险），承担风险的策略（基本风险）。

利率风险影响了很多企业，包括借款方和投资方，并且它对资本密集型的行业和部门影响更大。

利率的变化通过对借款方筹集资金的成本产生影响，举个例子，一企业借款者在利率不断上升的情况下，采用浮动利率来进行借款，这样会增加公司筹集资金的成本。

一组有固定收入的证券投资组合由于受到利率变动的影响，会
使其在资产的收益和损失上发生变化。

绝对利率风险主要产生于同一个方向上下利率的变动。

大多数企业在进行绝对风险评估时，都对利率风险进行监控，这是由于其潜在的影响性和获利能力。

从借款方的角度来说，利率上升会导致更高的筹集资金成本以及改变财务风险管理战略的计划内容。

从投资者或者借款方的角度来说，在同等投资额的前提下，利率水平的下降会使得其获得更少的利息收入，或者说其投资不足于取得足够的回报。

对于化解绝对利率风险最普遍的做法是套期保值，即通过对某持续时间段内的资产、负债进行匹配，或在进行借款投资时，将浮动利率更换成固定利率。

另一种选择是规避利率风险，例如可采取远期利率协议，改变利率上限等。

收益率曲线风险主要产生于短期与长期利率之间的关系。

在一个正常的利率环境中，收益曲线是抛物线型的。

而长期利率高于短期利率这是由于对提供资金方的高风险率。

倾斜的或平的收益曲线改变了利率差，这会影响到借款方和投资决策的盈利能力。

在一个相反情况的收益曲线环境中，对短期资本的高需求会使得其短期利率高于长期利率，收益率曲线也会因此呈现相反的情况或呈现平直状态，在这种情况下，长期利率对于市场的影响会小于短期利率。

当某一企业的资产和负债配对时，收益率曲线应该被企业考虑到利率风险当中去。

信用风险是财务风险以及市场交易活动中较为重要的一个方面，一般来说，信用风险是当某一企业产生了应收款项类，而这部分款项是否能收回依赖于对方企业是否还款，在此过程中会产生风险。

如果一企业在账面净值中没有应收款项类则交易的失败对其来说并不太大的问题，尽管它取决于一定程度上的法律环境和以及根据合同资金欠款量的大小等。

信用质量例如证券发行人的来源的恶化，也是信用风险产生的一个方面。

信用风险会随着收款到期日的临近而增加。

国际监管部门主张对于某些类型的交易缩短其还款时间，减少其所带来的系统性风险。

此外，信用风险会在利率上升的环境中或经济环境较差的地区大大增加。

企业在市场经济交易活动面临着信用风险，并且其取决于对方付款行为或履行合约行为。

信用风险产生于交易对方，例如在衍生品的交易中，因此它也常常被称为交易对手风险。

外汇风险起因于交易活动，折算和经济环境的变化，它也可能起因于在商品价格确定的情况下，采取另一种货币计价。

它包括交易风险，折算风险和战略风险。

交易风险通过损益表来影响一个企业的盈利性，它产生于普遍的经济交易活动，包括从供应商中购买产品，根据合同规定用其他货币进行支付结算，
执照费用，将商品销售给顾客取得国外货币而不是本国货币。

那些以国外货币为主要计价来进行买卖商品和服务的企业尤其会受到交易风险的影响。

在全球经济活动中，管理好交易风险对于企业的发展具有决定性的作用。

只有很小部分的企业不受其影响，大多数企业都直接或间接地受其影响。

传统的折算风险认为是由于汇率的变动性使得在会计财务报表的折算上产生了损益，特别资产负债表上的资产项目和负债项目，或者利润收益从功能货币折算成记账本位币时所发生的损益。

从另外的角度来看，折算风险通过影响外汇资产负债的项目，例如应付账款和应收账款、外币现金和外币存款来影响企业。

长期资产和负债，例如与国外经营有联系的项目尤其会受到影响。

地理位置和主要竞争对手的经济活动也是影响外汇风险的一个决定因素。

由于受到外汇汇率的变化，其战略或经济环境变化也会影响到企业的竞争力。

如国外商品销售数量的锐减，但这不会反映在资产负债表上，而是通过利润表来反映的。

举个例子，某一家公司的本国货币增值幅度较大，不管该公司如何努力的降低商品的成本和调低商品的价格，那么其商品在国际市场的价格相对来说也会升高，而其竞争对手是来自于某货币价值较低国家，通过比较就可以发现其商品的价格自然就相对于较低。