煤层突出危险性分级及其影响因素重要性评价

煤层突出危险性分级及其影响因素重要性评价

摘要煤与瓦斯突出是煤层主要瓦斯地质因素（煤层瓦斯压力P、煤层坚固性系数f及煤层瓦斯含量W）共同作用的结果，是划分突出煤层突出危险性的基础指标。本文采用煤层瓦斯地质参数与突出煤量统计数据，利用统计学方法，划分了突出煤层突出危险程度；通过多元回归分析，建立了突出煤量与煤层瓦斯压力、煤层瓦斯含量及煤层坚固性系数三个因素之间的多元回归方程。通过对各因素显著性评价，确立了瓦斯地质参数在煤层突出危险程度中的重要性。结果表明，上述三个因素对突出煤层发生煤与瓦斯突出时的贡献按重要性从大到小排列为P>f>w。为矿井评价突出煤层突出危险性，采用经济、合理的防突措施提供了科学依据。

关键词突出危险性分级；瓦斯地质参数；回归分析；重要性评价

Classification of coal seam outburst hazards and evaluation of the importance of influencing factors

Abstract：Coal and gas outburst are major coal seam gas geological factors (coal seam gas pressure P, sturdiness coefficient of coal seam f and coal seam gas content W) the result of joint action, is the basis of dividing highlight the coal seam outburst danger index. Subject adopts coalbed gas geological parameters and outburst coal statistics, using statistical methods, divides the outstanding highlight the danger degree of coal seam; Highlight was established by multivariate regression analysis, coal and coal seam gas pressure, gas content of coal seam and coal seam consistence coefficient of multiple regression equation between the three factors. Significant evaluation by other factors, established the gas geology parameters in the coal seam outburst danger degree of importance, and for evaluation of mine coal seams outburst danger, the economic and reasonable offer a scientific basis for outburst prevention measures.

Key words:Gas geology parameters; Coal and gas outburst risk classification; Regression analysis; The importance of evaluation

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