气候变化与水资源

Channel Losses
Water certificates
Household
Household
Hangjin - channel lining 夯井—分渠灌溉 夯井 分渠灌溉
Channel lining and water transfer: winners…and losers? 分渠灌溉与水资源转移：赢家与输家？ 分渠灌溉与水资源转移：赢家与输家？
Irrigation development and control areas in the Bashang
Control areas - well drilling in the Bashang 控制区—井水抽取 控制区 井水抽取
Groundwater management challenge 地下水管理挑战
Permit 1 Hangjin ID: 0.41 bcm Permits 2&3 Hetao ID: 4.77 bcm Defined under the YRCC’s Water Allocation Plan (long term) and adjusted under Annual Regulation Plans (annual) Defining and protecting farmers’ rights?
In the long-term: 长期 Scale-up to reduce freeriding Tie quotas to variable shares of aquifer safe yield
A farm economy?农业经济？ 农业经济？ 农业经济
Shifting livelihoods 生活水平变化
Irrigation diversion灌溉 灌溉
Water allocation – basin to household 水资源分配—从流域到用户 水资源分配 从流域到用户
Basin Allocation Agreement
Province Alloc. QH 14.1 SC 0.4 GS 30.4 NX 40.0 IM 58.6 SAA 38.0 SA 43.1 HN 55.4 SD 70.0 HB 20.0 Total 370
‘Water & Agricultural Management in Hebei’ 河北省水资源与农业管理
Total water withdrawals in Bashang counties, 1995 – 2005 坝上县水资源抽取总量
7000 x 10 3 ) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Surface water 1995 Ground water Surface water 2000 Ground water Surface water 2005 Ground water Zhangbei Guyuan Shangyi Kangbao
Agriculture & irrigation 农业&灌溉 农业 灌溉
Two stories: Surface water irrigation (IDs) – Development - state sponsored, driven – Management - increasingly commercial Groundwater irrigation – More recent, increasingly farmer-led & opportunistic – Boreholes 1949 (0) – today (>5M)...concentrated in water scarce north – Controllability, affordability...impacts
India Pakistan China Iran Mexico USA
185-200 45 75 29 29 110
9,000-10,000 90,000 21,500 58,000 414,285 555,000
Source: Shah, 2004
WUAs & quotas
Progress: 进展 Shared allocations Conservation incentives Devolved management
Rural jobs – RNFE, migration Rural incomes – diverse, dispersed Dependence on CPRs - declining Drivers of change – small push, big pull Sources of vulnerability – income shocks Nature of community – boundaries blurring Rural development narrative – income, employment Vulnerable are locked in to the ‘old’ economy
Water withdrawals in Hebei by sector, 1990 – 2003 河北省分部门采水量
180 Water withdrawal (mcm) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Surface water Ground water Surface water Ground water Surface water Ground water Surface water Ground water Other Agricultural Municipal Industry
Mugan
Balahai
Jianshe
Gross diversion after trading 280 mcm
Key messages – IDs & water transfers 关键点—IDs与水资源配给 关键点 与水资源配给
1. Irrigation will lose market share 2. Supply will fluctuate...variability will increase 3. Deepening rights reform (basin to farmer) will grow in importance 4. Protecting the interests of poorer households as water is reallocated will depend on:
The most vulnerable? 最脆弱群体？ 最脆弱群体？
Drivers of change & management challenges 变化动因&管理挑战 变化动因 管理挑战 Major drivers?
主要动因？ 主要动因？ …urbanisation, industrialisation, consumption...with climate change overlay A water ‘crisis’? 水危机？ 水危机？ …who gets what (Q, Q, R) in a variable climate: farms vs cities, upstream vs downstream, environmental vs human Adaptation challenge? 适应挑战？ 适应挑战？ …mediating between competing claims: range of different scales Agricultural futures? 农业未来？ 农业未来？ ...agriculture will lose water. How? Impacts on poorer households?
Water Permit of 5860 mcm
Gross permit before trading 410 mcm
Water diverted before trading Return flow before trading 375 mcm 35 mcm
Saving after trading 130 mcm Water diverted after trading 245 mcm Return flow after trading 35 mcm
Abstraction permits
Hangjin Irrigation District 280GL（abstraction)
Hetao Irrigation District
Other users
Group water entitlem来自百度文库nts
Water User Associations
Water User Associations
Source: Zhangjiakou City Water Affairs Bureau, 2006.
Predicted groundwater level declines in the Bashang 可预测地下水位下降情况
Source: WAMH 2004. Note: drawdown modelled over a 10 year period based on 2003 estimates of groundwater abstraction and recharge.
– – – Informal claims (WUAs, contracting) Sound science – basin efficiencies, consumptive rights Willingness to recognise effects on ‘3rd parties’ & environmental flows
1990
1995
2000
2003
Source: Hebei provincial WRD Statistical Yearbooks
Yellow River flows 1956-2000 黄河水流量
1200
1000
Volume (108m3)
800
600
400
200
0 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Year
Water allocation in the Yellow River Basin 黄河流域水资源配给
Yellow River Allocation Plan（billion m3）
Prov.
QH SC GS NX IM
SA SA HN SD HB Tot
Alloc. 1.4 0.1 3.0 4.0 5.9 3.8 4.3 5.5 7.0 2.0 37
Withdrawal (m
3
Year
Source: personal communication, Zhangjiakou City Water Affairs Bureau 2005.
Groundwater level changes recorded for three Bashang counties, 2003 – 2005 地下水水位变化记录
Country Annual groundwater use (km3) No. of groundwater structures (million) 20 0.5 3.5 0.5 0.07 0.2 Extraction/ structure (m3/year) % of population dependent on groundwater 55-60 60-65 22-25 12-18 5-6 <1-2
Climate Change and Water: Impacts & Management Needs 气候变化与水资源： 气候变化与水资源： 影响与管理需求
Roger Calow Water Policy Programme, ODI 罗杰
Overview 概述 1. The big picture 概括 1. Irrigation – surface water systems 灌溉—地表水系统 3.Irrigation - groundwater economies 灌溉—地下水节约 4. Conclusions 总结