2018中国投资市场报告

C重hong庆qing
C成heng都du
北B京eijing
天Tian津jin
广Gua州ngzhou
Sh深enzh圳en
Yantze River Delta
上Shan海ghai
南Nan京jing
H杭ang州zhou
Polarization
Slow integration
Integration & repolarization
Passenger Traffic of Guangzhou-Foshan Metro Line
10,000
年Ann客ual 运Passe量nger Traffic
每Y-o-单Y Gro位wth里, Ann程ual P承asse运nger人Traff数ic pe增r sq.长km
12,000
30%
8,000
Total Leased Area of Commercial Properties: Central & West China as % of Nationwide
% as of China’s GDP Notable increase Stable (Integration stage ) Stable (Polarization stage) Notable decrease
DONGGUAN Advanced manufacturing hub
SHENZHEN Hub of transportation and technology & innovation
HONG KONG
International finance, trade, law service, scientific innovation and shipping centre
Land Area
SUZHOU
8,488 sq. km.
GDP
1.7 tn RMB
Ratio of tertiary industry
51.2%
Permanent population
10.68 mn
Length of subway in operation
138 km
Total stock of offices
1 Nansha, Guangzhou 2 Binhai Bay New City, Dongguan
New logistic submarkets
3 Heshan, Jiangmen
4
Hongwan Port, Zhuhai
5 Cuiheng New District (Ma An Island), Zhongshan
Suzhou Qingdao Wuxi Ningbo
Source: WIND, CBRE Research, Q2 2018
10
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
CITY IS BORDERLESS
Real Estate Investment Opportunity in Great Bay Area
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2018
8
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
A ROADMAP OF CITY CLUSTERS: FROM POLARIZATION TO INTEGRATION
From Polarization to Integration: How the Growth Poles Evolve in The City Clusters
5
4
Zhuhai
Dongguan
2
Shenzhen
Hong Kong Macau
Huizhou
Real Estate Investment Opportunities
Regional business hubs
Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen
Emerging office submarkets
13
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
REAL ESTATE OPPORTUNITIES BROUGHT BY INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRY SHIFT
Ratio of Tertiary Industry
78,409%3
50% -
Below
and above
Chongqing
Boyang Lake Chang-
Central Zhu-Tan
Fujian
Central Guangxi
Yunan
Beibu Gulf Great Bay Area
40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Байду номын сангаас
MACAU Travel and leisure centre
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
FASTER GROWTH OF POPULATION OF GBA TO BENEFIT SHENZHEN & GUANGZHOU MOST
Size of Population
>10 million
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2018
12
GUANGZHOU Hub of transportation, technology & innovation and international exchange HUIZHOU Hub of commercialization of R&D outputs
*Guangdong province
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2018
14
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
GUANGZHOU -FOSHAN METRO NETWORK: A SAMPLE OF URBAN INTEGRATION
Guangzhou - Foshan Metro Network
11
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
“9+2” GBA CITY CLUSTER: MASTER PLANNING AND CITY POSITIONING
The gateway to Southwest China ZHAOQING
Advanced manufacturing hub and high-quality forest city
Pilot Cities of China’s Reform and Opening Up (1979-1984)
China’s City Clusters in Night Earth by NASA
1980’s
Source: NASA, CBRE Research, Q2 2018
6
2017
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
Secondary growth pole emerges
Polarization - dominant
Source: WIND, CBRE Research, Q2 2018
9
Integration - dominant
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
RE-POLARIZATION DRIVEN BY NEW ECONOMY
Office
Retail
Logistic
Ha-Da-Qi
Central
Central Jilin
West
Huhhot-Baotou-Erdos
Liaoning
Jing-Jin-Ji
Central Shanxi Shannxi Henan
Shandong Peninsula
Chengdu-
Anhui YRD Wuhan
FOSHAN
Advanced manufacturing and regional transportation hub
ZHONGSHAN
The gateway city in West GBA JIANGMEN
Demonstration area of innovative development ZHUHAI
2.5 mn sq. m.
Total stock of warehouses
4.08 mn sq. m.
Source: Local statistics bureaus, CBRE Research, Q2 2018
7
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
THE RISE OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CLUSTERS
Part I
CITY IS BORDERLESS
--- Human and economic activities have no administrative boundaries. Cities are connected.
5
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
1980 – 2018: FROM CITIES TO CITY CLUSTERS
5-10 million 3-5 million <3 million
ONGOING URBAN INTEGRATION
Targeted Population Growth 2018-2020 CAGR>3% CAGR1.5%-3% CAGR<1.5%
Targeted Population in 2020
Added Value of IT and Scientific Research as % Of GDP
Top 5 cities in added value of IT and scientific research
20%
2012
2016
15%
10%
5%
0%
Beijing
Hangzhou
Shenzhen Nanjing Shanghai Shenyang Tianjin Chongqing Guangzhou Chengdu Dalian Wuhan
20%
4,000
10%
0
0%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Passenger Traffic by Source (2017)
28%
In广tra州-city市of内Gua乘ng客zhou
1
49%
I佛ntra山-cit市y of内Fos乘han客
I广nter佛-cit城y be际twe间en乘Gua客ngzhou and Foshan
2 0 1 8 中 国 投 资 市场 报 告
世邦魏理仕研究部
1
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
2
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
3
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
Jiang’an Zhabei
4
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
WHY CITY CLUSTERS, NOT CITIES?
A Tale of Two Cities: Wuhan & Suzhou
2017
WUHAN
8,594 sq. km. 1.35 tn RMB
54.1% 10.89 mn
237 km 3.7 mn sq. m. 1.69 mn sq. m.
23%
Source: Guangfo Metro, CBRE Research, Q2 2018
15
CBRE | RESEARCH | BORDERLESS
CAGR
GBA
75 million
2.9%
Jing-Jin-Ji
123 million
2.1%
YRD
121 million
2.2%
Zhaoqing Foshan
Jiangmen
Guangzhou
Dongguan
Huizhou
Shenzhen
Zhongshan
Hong
Kong
Zhuhai Macau
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2018
Wuhan Chang-Zhu-Tan Anhui 40%
Chengdu-Chongqing
Jing-Jin-Ji
Great Bay Area
Growth-pole GDP as % of Cluster GDP
2008 2013 2017
30%
20%
10%
0% 武Wuh汉an
长Cha沙ngsha
合肥Hefei
80%
50%
Infrastructure investment intensity RMB /sq. km.
GBA* YRD Jing-Jin-Ji
6,910,000 3,020,000 1,450,000
Zhaoqing
Guangzhou
To Maoming
Foshan
3
Jiangmen
1
Zhongshan