0103希腊又在摇撼欧元

欧元危机的发展始终牵涉三个要素的相互作用：政治、市场和经济学。当情况改善，这三个要素有望形成良性循环：选民选出主流政治人物，市场放松，利率下降，实体经济随之好转，进而加强中间政治立场的地位。反之可能形成一个恶性循环。经济不景气导致政治走向极端化，令市场害怕，从而推高利率，加重债务负担，带来更多紧缩，进而促使政治进一步极端are theeurozone’s weakest link
The euro crisis is back. An election in Greece next month and the probable victory ofSyriza, afar-leftparty, will frighten politicians and investors. Once again they will be engaged in agrimdiscussion ofa connected series ofpossible horrors:debt-default, bank runs, bailouts, social unrest and the possible ejection of Greece from theeurozone.
在某种角度上，这场危机发生在市场误以为欧元危机已基本结束的一年的年底，时机颇为恰当。此前欧洲债务国的借贷成本已大幅下降，反映出一个普遍信念，即欧洲央行(ECB)“不惜一切代价”拯救单一货币的著名承诺消除了欧元崩溃的风险。
That idea was always naive, as events in Greece are nowillustrating.The weak link inthe theory was European politics – and, specifically, the risk that voters would revolt againsteconomic austerityandcast their ballots for“anti-system” parties that reject the European consensus on how to keep the single currency together.
Those who hoped for a virtuous circle in Greece pointed out that the economy has finally returned to growth in 2014. The trouble is that the growth has been too slow and too weak to counter popular anguish at the state of the nation. The Greek economy has shrunk by more than 25 per cent since the onset of the crisis, youth unemployment is above 50 per cent and the state’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio is considerably higher thanwhen the crisis began. Under the circumstances, the rise of anti-system political parties is not hard to understand.
如果这一共识被打破，那么由债务、纾困和紧缩构成的整栋脆弱的“纸牌屋”就会开始摇晃。这正是我们现在在希腊所看到的。
The development of the euro crisis has always involved the interaction of three elements: politics, markets and economics.When things are improving,the three elements can create avirtuous circle: voters elect mainstream politicians, the markets relax and interest-rates fall, and so the real economy improves, strengthening the position of thepolitical centre. Alternatively, avicious circlecan set in. Economic distress leads to politicalradicalisationwhich frightens markets, which leads to higher interest rates, a heavier debt burden and more austerity – which in turns leads to further politicalradicalisation.
欧元危机又回来了。希腊下月将举行大选，而极左政党激进左翼联盟(Syriza)的获胜前景令政界人士和投资者感到害怕。他们将要再次展开一场严峻的讨论，主题是一系列可能发生且相互关联的可怕事件：债务违约、银行挤兑、纾困、社会不安定以及希腊有可能退出欧元区。
It is somehow fitting thatthis crisis should break out at the very end of a year in which marketswere lulled into believing thatthe euro crisis was essentially over. The cost of borrowing ofdebtor nations in Europe had fallen sharply, reflecting the widespread belief that the European Central Bank’s famous pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency has removed the risk of euro collapse.
理论上，Syriza不会打破这种共识。这个希腊极左政党表示，他们打算让希腊留在欧元区内。问题是，他们还希望减记希腊大约一半的外债，这个要求对欧元区其他成员国（尤其是德国）而言很可能是不可接受的。
Syrizamay be right that Greece’s debts are essentiallyunpayable. But the policy of “extend and pretend” (extending the payback period, but pretending that all debts will eventually be paid) was essential to allow Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, to persuade her voters to agree to successive bailouts. If German voters are now told that all those loans to Greece will not, in fact, be repaid, they may also drift to the extremes. The rising force in German politics is on the right, not the left, in the form of the anti-euro Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. There are also external reasons for Germanyto be very wary of giving ground toSyriza. A debt write-off for Greece may be affordable – but it would clearly open the door for similar demands from Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and even France.
The rise of anti-system parties threatens the survival of the euro because the single currency depends on the maintenance of a pro-euro consensus among the 18 countries that have adopted the currency.As long asthe leaders gathered around the table at yet another “emergency summit” in Brussels are all basically committed to the project, experience suggests that they will find a wayto keep it together.
反体制政党的崛起对欧元的生存构成威胁，因为单一货币体系依赖于采用欧元的18个国家保持它们支持欧元的共识。只要再一次汇聚布鲁塞尔召开“紧急峰会”的欧元区领导人原则上保持对欧元项目的承诺，那么从过往的经验推断，他们会找到维系欧元的办法。
In theory,Syrizawould not break that consensus. The Greek radicals say that they intend to keep their country inside theeurozone. The trouble is that they also want to write off about half of Greece’s foreign debt – a demand that is likely to prove unacceptable to the othereurozonemembers, above all, Germany.