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CURRENT AND NEXT GENERATION SOLAR CELL MARKET OUTLOOKVinay AnanthacharFuji-Keizai USA Inc.141E 55th Street,New York, NY 10022, USAvinay.ananthachar@ABSTRACTIn 2006, the worldwide solar photovoltaic industry reached a consolidated figure of 2.1GW, representing an annual growth of 30%. Emerging technologies represented about 0.22GW worldwide. The solar cell market based on new emerging technologies is estimated to increase tremendously over the next 10 years at an AAGR of 43.1% capturing more than 13% of the total market share (in MW capacity). The enormous growth rate of emerging technologies is attributed to the demand for non-silicon based solar cells, higher efficiency, cost reduction, and overall awareness of extracting energy from alternative sources.1. INTRODUCTIONThis market research paper studies the current market status of solar cell industry worldwide. It also includes research on new emerging technologies, major players and future roadmap (beyond 2015). It includes a list of major companies, research ventures, and universities. While covering the solar cell market based on the current technologies, it focuses on the new emerging technologies and related materials, and pursuing the market trends from a global perspective. 2. WORLDWIDE MARKET DEMAND2.1 Total Market Demand (MW)The worldwide solar cell production for 2006 reached 2,078MW increasing at a rate of 25% from previous year’s 1,656MW. In 2006, about 215.6MW (9% of total solar cell production) were from new emerging solar cell technologies. New emerging technologies are rapidly growing (the market size increased 40% from previous year) in the regions where major research and development work are conducted (such as US, Europe and Japan). [1]TABLE 1: WORLDWIDE SOLAR CELL MARKET DEMAND IN MW, 2006 – 20152006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Current 1862.5 2346.7 3003.8 3904.9 5232.6 Emerging 215.6 304.0 428.7 608.7 864.3 Total 2078.1 2650.7 3432.4 4513.6 6096.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 6907.0 8979.2 11493.3 14481.6 18102.0 Emerging 1227.4 1779.7 2580.5 3741.8 5425.6 Total 8134.4 10758.8 14073.9 18223.4 23527.6The worldwide solar cell market is forecasted to reach 23,527.6MW by the year 2015 increasing at 29.9% AAGR. The solar cell market based on new emerging technologies is estimated to increase tremendously over the next 10Proceedings of ISES Solar World Congress 2007: Solar Energy and Human Settlement 2952years at an AAGR of 43.1% capturing more than 16% ofthe total market share (in MW capacity). The enormousgrowth rate of emerging technologies is attributed to thedemand for non-silicon based solar cells, higher efficiency,cost reduction and overall awareness of extracting energy from alternative sources such as wind, solar, biomass and other natural sources. [1]2.2 Total Market Demand ($ Million)TABLE 2: WORLDWIDE SOLAR CELL MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST IN $ MILLION, 2006 – 20152006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Current 1461.9 1783.3 2233.8 2715.7 3390.0 Emerging 150.4 199.0 272.3 362.6 474.6 Total1612.3 1982.3 2506.1 3078.3 3864.62011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 4339.5 5332.3 6457.8 7835.1 9577.0 Emerging 650.9 889.6 1121.6 1459.1 1864.1 Total 4990.4 6221.9 7579.4 9294.2 11,441.1The worldwide solar cell production market is estimated to be $1.6 billion in 2006 growing at a rate of 23.2% reaching more than $11 billion by 2015. The solar market is growing so rapidly that the market size would increase more than 6 times within next 10 years. H ere, the market size depends on the cost of cell production per Watt. The above tables illustrates how the growth rate is fluctuating and it decreases in 2009-11; this is because the raw materials (silicon ingots and wafers) price and production cost are anticipated to drop and also an increase in the manufacturing of solar cells based on other innovative low cost materials.Today, the solar cell market is dominated by crystalline silicon based solar cells consisting of 91% market share worldwide – remaining 9% is new emerging technologies including thin-film solar cells. Harvesting electricity using solar cells based on crystalline silicon technology is very well established even though the efficiency is low and material wastage during production is high.2.3 Solar Cell Market Share by Technology TypeAll the emerging technologies are expected to increase its market share by 2015. Emerging technologies is projected have a share of 16% by 2015 as compared to 9% share in 2006. This can be mainly attributed to the increase in Thin-film amorphous silicon solar cell products. [1]Fig. 1: Worldwide market share of current & emerging technologies in 2006.Currently almost all the top manufacturers worldwide are 1) offering flexible thin-film solar cells 2) performing research work to increase the efficiency of thin-film solar cells 3) have contracts with roofing/construction companies to introduce solar cell products that are integrated with roofing materials. Thin-film amorphous solar cells have a share of 6% in 2006 and are expected to increase to 11% by the end of 2015.Multi-crystalline is expected to decrease gradually because of its low cell efficiency and Mono-crystalline will increase its market share slightly by 1% especially due to its higher efficiency than Mono-crystalline silicon solar cells. In Mono-crystalline silicon, due to some disadvantages such as material wastage and manufacturing cost, the growth will be slow. One of the biggest advantage of Mono-crystalline verse Multi-crystalline is higher cell efficiency.2.4 Leading Solar Cell ManufacturersThe US market leaders are Energy Photovoltaics Inc., GE Power, Konarka Technologies Inc., PowerFilm Inc. and Unisolar Inc. In Europe, ErSol Energy AG, Isofoton, Photowatt International SAS, Q-Cells, Schott Solar and Solar World AG are the market leaders in emerging solar cell manufacturing. Leading Japanese solar cell manufacturers are Kaneka Corporation, Kyocera, Sanyo and Sharp Solar.12MARKETING AND FINANCING2953Organic/Polymer basedcells2.4%Fig. 2: Worldwide market share of current & emerging technologies in 2015.2.5 Materials for New Emerging Solar Cells2.5.1 Amorphous SiliconThis material based solar cell has its fixed place in the consumer market such as calculators or indoor use. The visual appearance of thin-film solar cells makes them attractive for facade applications.2.5.2 Copper Indium Diselenide (CIS) and CopperIndium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS)Solar cell technology based on ternary compound semiconductors CIS and multinary alloy CIGS are very flexible with respect to process conditions. H igher solar cell efficiency can be obtained by empirical optimization of process parameters of the materials.2.5.3 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)One of the most promising approaches for the fabrication of low-cost, high-efficiency solar cells involves the use of Cadmium Telluride (CdTe). It is an ideal material for thin-film solar photovoltaic cells because, optimum optical bandgap for solar energy conversion, easy to handle in thin-film deposition processes.2.5.4 Transparent Conducting Oxide (TCO)The TCO is usually Tin Oxide (TiO2), with the TCO-coated glass available commercially. The key properties for high-quality TCOs are high optical transmission, low electrical resistivity and high carrier mobility, low surface roughness, good thermal and chemical stability, good crystallinity, adhesion, and hardness and low processing cost.2.5.5 Dye-SensitizedNano-crystalline dye sensitized solar cells are based on the mechanism of a fast regenerative photo-electrochemical process. In the case of the semiconductor TiO2, this results in a working cycle starting with the dye excitation by an absorbed photon at the electrolyte interface and an electron injection into the TiO2.2.5.6 Organic/ Polymer MaterialOrganic cells can be divided into molecular and polymer organic solar cells. Examples are conjugated polymers; dyes or molecular organic glasses can show semi-conducting properties. Extremely high optical absorption coefficients are possible with these materials, which offers the possibility for the production of very thin solar cells and therefore, only very small amounts of materials are needed.2.6 New Emerging Solar Cell R&D Activity and StrategyIn the US, Energy Photovoltaics Inc, GE Power, Konarka Technologies, PowerFilm Inc and Unisolar Inc. are the top players in the manufacturing of solar cells based on emerging technologies. One of the most promising company is Konarka Technologies, a Massachusetts based research company, have tested their dye-sensitized solar cell product and already have contracts with the US Department of Defense.In Europe, Shell Solar has played a major role in the development of first-generation CIS technology and has been successfully producing and marketing its products. Shell and Saint-Gobain Glass Deutschland have announced their joint venture, Avancis, to begin solar power panel manufacturing based on advanced CIS technology. Fraunhofer Institute in Germany is one of the world leader in research and developmental work in new emerging solar cell technologies and material development.Proceedings of ISES Solar World Congress 2007: Solar Energy and Human Settlement 2954In Japan, Sanyo is one of the top company manufacturing “double” solar cells or modules known as HIT Double solar modules. H IT Double modules can capture additional backside ambient light and can increase the performance of the system by an additional 10% or more [2]. Sharp Corporation recently invested about $30 million to increase annual production capacity for solar cells at its Katsuragi plant in Japan by 100MW to meet the growing demand for solar modules in the domestic market as well as internationally. Sharp is the largest producer [2] of solar PV cells in the world; in 2004 it produced about 324MW of solar cells (approximately 27% share of the total volume).Leading manufacturers are performing research to enhance the solar cell efficiency and investing into new emerging technology R&D.3. ROADMAP, COMMERCIALIZATION AND BUSINE-SS OUTLOOK3.1 Technologies and Bottlenecks3.1.1 Crystalline SiliconThe availability of enough reasonably priced silicon feedstock could be a major barrier for continuous growth.H ence, better use of material has to be achieved by alternative manufacturing method or process. In order to improve the throughput in the manufacturing line the number of processing steps has to be reduced without lowering the efficiency. As more than 95% of today’s market is based on crystalline technology, many manufacturers are addressing these.3.1.2 Thin-FilmThe following issues have to be addressed simultaneously if thin-film technology is to take a major share of the growing market. 1) Low solar cell efficiency, 2) Expected lifetime of the product, 3) Safety requirements of some materials in production and availability of materials and 4) Cost of production equipments.3.1.3 Emerging TechnologiesIn Dye-Sensitized solar cells, the stability increased significantly but still does not meet the standards of today’s market. This technology [1] is very hard to succeed because of the current liquid electrolyte, sealing and phase change. A solid-state version would be more robust. Currently the solar cell efficiency achieved is in the rangeof 4 to 5%, which is low compared to crystalline siliconsolar cells.On the other hand, Polymer cells are only on the verge of a bright future. The present 3% [1] cell efficiency is only a stepping-stone for much higher efficiencies. Research hasto be done in understanding the chemical and physical processes that would enhance the efficiency of a polymer based solar cells. Issues can be briefly summarized as 1) Collection of generated carriers, 2) Microstructure, 3) Lowcost materials and processing, 4) Stability and suitable materials and 5) Understanding of interfaces.3.2 Solar Cell Technology RoadmapTABLE 3: WORLDWIDE SOLAR CELL PRODUCTION ROADMAPTechnologies 2006 2010 2015 2030 Current 1,8625,23218,102117,556 Emerging 216 864 5,425 50,382 TOTAL(MW) 2,078 6,09623,527 167,938Fig. 3: Worldwide solar cell production roadmap.3.2.1 Current Status and Near Term (2007 –2010)Today, the photovoltaic industry is a rapidly growing market worldwide and there are few issues that have to be addressed to ensure this trend is followed for the next 20 years. The industry would start building manufacturing12MARKETING AND FINANCING 2955plants worldwide to meet growing demands in the Europe, USA and Japan and also new emerging markets in Asia, even though it maybe a small market, it is a stepping stone for larger market share because of growing economies such as India and China.3.2.2 Short Term (2010-2015)There are number of potential in such emerging technologies as dye-sensitized solar cells, nano-structured materials, and plastic/polymer solar cells, to leapfrog to far beyond current crystalline silicon and thin-film technologies which in turn dramatically reduce cost and raise the performance. Ultimately, the potential for cost reduction through both learning and R&D advances is what justifies the current (2006) robust investments in research and market development. Many experts in the solar industry agree that solar power technologies can become significantly more efficient, more reliable, more durable, and less expensive.As the forecast in the previous tables illustrate, the solar cell production is expected to increase more than 6 times by 2015 to the current production capacity (MW). This period (2010-2015) is the major phase in large-scale implementation and success of the solar cells technologies worldwide.3.2.3 Long Term (2015 and beyond)During the next 20-25 years the solar cell industry will invest in R&D to make manufacturing lines more effective and improve production. Majority of the solar cells manufactured during this period would be in developing countries such as India, China and Brazil.The current investments into research and development by solar cell companies would be turned into mass production and solar cell industry will still continue investing into the research and development of new emerging technologies and materials to improve performance of the products. The roadmap case study shows that the worldwide solar cell market size to be 168GW [3], which is 80 times the current market size.4. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSI would like to thank Mr. Shizuo Abe, Fuji-Keizai USA Inc. for his continuous support and encouragement in various market research studies.5. REFERENCES(1) Arnulf Jager-Waldau, “PV Status Report 2003”European Commission, Sept 2003.(2) M. Yamaguchi, Y. Ohshita, K. Arafune, H. Sai, andM.Tachibana, “Present status and future of crystalline silicon solar cells in Japan”, Solar Energy, V ol. 80, Issue 1, Jan 2006, 104-110.(3) Arnulf Jager-Waldau, “R&D roadmap for PV” ThinSolid Films, V ol. 451-452, Mar 2004, 448-454.。