第一章CH01 国际金融托马斯第15版

合集下载

(完整版)国际金融习题答案第一章

习题答案第一章国际收支本章严重概念国际收支：国际收支是指一国或地区居民与非居民在一定时期内全部经济交易的货币价值之和。

它体现的是一国的对外经济交往，是货币的、流量的、事后的概念。

国际收支平均表：国际收支平均表是将国际收支根据复式记账原则和特定账户分类原则编制出来的会计报表。

它可分为经常项目、资本和金融项目以及错误和遗漏项目三大类。

丁伯根原则：1962年，荷兰经济学家丁伯根在其所著的《经济政策：原理与设计》一书中提出：要实现若干个独立的政策目标，至少需要相互独立的若干个有用的政策工具。

这一观点被称为“丁伯根原则”。

米德冲突：英国经济学家米德于1951年在其名著《国际收支》当中最早提出了固定汇率制度下内外平均冲突问题。

米德指出，如果我们假定失业与通货膨胀是两种独立的情况，那么，单一的支出调整政策（包括财政、货币政策）无法实现内部平均和外部平均的目标。

分派原则：这一原则由蒙代尔提出，它的含义是：每一目标应当指派给对这一目标有相对最大的影响力，因而在影响政策目标上有相对优势的工具。

自主性交易：亦称事前交易，是指交易当事人自主地为某项动机而进行的交易。

国际收支平均：国际收支平均是指自主性交易发生逆差或顺差，需要用补偿性交易来弥补。

它有例外的分类，根据时间标准进行分类，可分为静态平均和动态平均；根据国际收支的内容，可分为总量平均和结构平均；根据国际收支平均时所采取的经济政策，可分为实际平均和潜在平均。

复习思考题1．一国国际收支平均表的经常账户是赤字的同时，该国的国际收支是否可能盈余，为什么？答：可能，通常人们所讲的国际收支盈余或赤字就是指综合差额的盈余或赤字.这里综合差额的盈余或赤字不仅包括经常账户，还包括资本与金融账户，这里，资本与金融账户和经常账户之间具有融资关系。

但是，随着国际金融一体化的发展，资本和金融账户与经常账户之间的这种融资关系正逐渐发生深刻变化。

一方面，资本和金融账户为经常账户提供融资受到诸多因素的制约。

国际金融第一章

偶发性不平衡
一些偶发性的因素也会导致一些国家的国际收支不平衡，如政局动荡、战争、债务危机、金融危机等。政局动荡与战争是最大的国际投资风险。因此，一国政局动荡的时期往往世界各国的投资者都唯恐避之不及，随着资本的大量流出，该国的国际收支必然面临着失衡。
国际收支逆差的影响
外国投资者与本国投资者持有本币的信心将会极大地削弱，大量抛出本币或本币表示的资产，本币汇率会面临着较大的下跌压力。
第三种情况
第三种情况说明本国需求旺盛，但本国企业盈利前景与竞争力不足，需求旺盛只不过是一种历史累积需求的释放。本国处在一个经济高泡沫时期，在需求与资本市场双重泡沫下，国内资金将大规模出逃，可能引发金融危机，经济危机的后果是本国经济大幅下滑，本国资本市场面临崩盘的危险，本国货币有可能大幅贬值。
该国货币当局不愿接受本币贬值的后果，就需要对外汇市场进行干预，即动用外汇储备抛出外币收回本币。后果：耗竭储备，引发危机
国际收支逆差的三种情况
一是资本和金融项目顺差不足以弥补经常项目的逆差；
二是经常项目顺差不足以弥补资本和金融项目逆差；三是经常项目与资本项目双逆差。
第一种情况
当总差额为盈余或赤字时，就要通过增加或减少官方储备
来平衡。总差额的状况直接影响该国汇率；而动用官方储备弥补国际收支不平衡、维持汇率稳定会影响一国的货币发行量。国际收支盈余或赤字，通常就是总差额盈余或赤字。
自主性交易、补偿性交易
自主性交易又叫事前交易，这类交易纯粹由于经济上的某种目的而自发进行。
外国现钞所占的比重很小
随着国际经济交往的发展及银行制度的进步，各国逐渐采用银行转账方式来结算彼此之间的债权债务。因此，目前国际支付手段亦即外汇主要由以外币表示的各种银行账户（主要是活期存款账户）和各种支付凭证（如汇票、支票、旅行支票、商业票据等）组成。外国现钞所占的比重很小，在国际支付中很少使用。一般说来，只有旅行和非法活动才会导致钞票在国家之间的流动。

国际金融第1章(1,2,3)

• • • • • • • • 下面是美国的国际收支的实例。例1-1 美向中国出口10万美元小麦，中国以其在美银行存款支付货款。借：短期资本流出 10万美元贷：商品出口 10万美元例1-2 美国由墨西哥进口1万美元纺织品，三个月后付货款。借：商品进口 1万美元贷：短期资本流入 1万美元例1-3 某美国人在意大利旅游，使用旅行支票支付食宿费用1万美元，意大利人把所获美元存入美国银行。 • 借：旅游服务(支出) 1万美元 • 贷：短期资本流入 1万美元
第1章国际收支
国际金融学的概述
• 国际金融学是金融学研究领域的一个重要的分支，现如今它已经成为各高校的基础专业课程或素质教育课程，国际金融学教科书也越来越受人重视。国际金融学是从货币金融角度研究开放经济（open economy）下内外均衡同时实现问题的一门独立学科。即国际金融学本质上是开放经济的货币宏观经济学，主要关心在一个资金广泛流动和灵活多变的汇率制度环境下，同时实现内外均衡的条件和方法。
1.1.2 国际收支平衡表
• (2) 资本金融账户 • ① 资本账户，反映资产在居民与非居民间转移。分列两个项目：其一是资本转移，登录投资捐赠和债务注销的外汇收支，投资捐赠可以现金形式，也可以实物形式来进行(如交通设备、机器和机场、码头、道路、桥梁、医院等建筑物)。债务注销即债权国放弃债权，而不要求债务国给予回报。其二是非生产、非金融资产的收买/出售，登录那些非生产就存在的资产(土地、地下矿藏)和某些无形资产(专利权、商标权、经销权等)收买或出售而发生的外汇收支。
• 中国可以购买西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊加起来的全部国债，这样就能一瞬间解决欧元区的债券危机。而且这么做的话，中国手里还能剩下一半的外汇储备。 • 中国可以给12.3亿印度人每人送一辆Tata Nano汽车（世界上最便宜的汽车），剩下的钱还够买一年的汽油。这个慷慨的举动将轻易地为印度提速，也能够轻易地让印度本来就拥挤的交通处于瘫痪状态。Leabharlann 1.1.2 国际收支平衡表

国际贸易第15版复习大纲剖析

Chapter One (第一章)International Economics Is Different(国际经济学是一门独特的学科)1. Four Controversies (四个有争议的事件)（1）Imports of Automobile Tires （汽车轮胎的进口）（2）Immigration （移民）（3）China′s Exchange Rate (中国的汇率)（4）Global Financial and Economic Crisis （全球金融和经济危机）2.Economics and the nation-state（经济学和国家政府）Nations are sovereign (国家是主权独立的)Nobody is in charge of the whole world economy(没有人可以掌控整个世界经济)Nations have their separate policies(国家拥有独立的政策)（1）Factor mobility（要素流动性）（2）Different fiscal policies（不同的财政政策）（3）Different moneys（不同的货币）Part One: The Theory of International Trade(第一篇：国际贸易理论第二章至第七章)Chapter Two (第二章)The basic theory using demand and supply（需求与供给的基本理论）1.Four Key Questions About International Trade(贸易的四个重要问题)2.Demand and supply(需求与供给)(1)Demand and Consumer surplus（需求与消费者剩余）①Price of elasticity of demand（需求价格弹性）The percent change in quantity demanded of a product caused by a one percent increase in the price of this product（产品价格上升一个百分点所引起的该产品需求数量的百分比变化）注意：需求曲线越平坦，说明越具有价格弹性②Consumer surplus（消费者剩余）The difference between the value that consumers place on the units of the product that they buy and the payment that they make to obtain these units.（消费者在每单位产品上愿意支付的价格与获得这些产品实际支付的价格之间的差额）（2）Supply and producer surplus(供给与生产者剩余)①Price of elasticity of supply（P20）②Supply surplus (figure 2.1)(P22)3. Two national markets and the opening of trade（两国的市场与贸易的开展）（1）Free Trade Equilibrium （自由贸易均衡）What will happen when US trade with the rest of country?Buy low and sell high ----- arbitrage（套利）Note: one –dollar, one-vote metric (一元一票制)（2）Which country gains more?（哪个国家获益更多）The country that experiences the larger price change has a larger value of the net gains from trade (经历较大价格变化的国家从贸易中获得较大的净收益)Chapter Three (第三章)Why Everybody Trades：Comparative Advantage(为什么开展贸易：比较优势)1. Adam smith′s theory of absolute advantage （斯密的绝对优势理论）（1）Mercantilism （重商主义）（P35）（2）The theory of absolute advantageEvery country will focus on producing what it does best and exports it。

国际金融学(第一至章)课件

17
套算汇率的计算方法： 1.当关键货币相同时，交叉相除法。
USD1=JPY110.20/110.50 USD1=SF1.3530/1.3560 SF1=110.20÷1.3650/110.50÷1.3530
2.当关键货币不同时，同边相乘法。 EURO1=USD1.2000/1.2020 USD1=JPY110.20/110.50 EURO1=JPY1.2000×110.20/1.2020×110.50
20
因此，从20世纪70年代末起，人们开始使用有效汇率来观察某种货币的总体波动幅度及其在国际经贸和金融领域中的总体地位。
以贸易比重为权数的有效汇率（贸易有效汇率）的公式如下 A货币的有效汇率 =∑A货币对i国货币的汇率×A国对i 国的出口贸易值/A国的全部对外出口贸易值
21
1.3.4按外汇交易的交割期限 1.3.4.1即期汇率又称现汇汇率，是指外汇买卖成
28
1.4.4.2汇率变动对一国对外经济的影响
我们主要分析对一国对外贸易的影响
出口商品的国内价格是8.27RMB，在＄1=RMB8.27时，国际价格是1＄；
当＄1=RMB9时，若国内价格不变，国际价格＜1＄，因此得出当外汇汇率上升、本币汇率下降即＄ 1=RMB8.27——＄1=RMB9时，有刺激出口、抑制进口的作用。
现今国际间银行外汇买卖所惯用的报价方法。
路透社信息终端上的外汇汇率采用“单位元”
标价法，即1采用
“单位镑”法，即每1英镑、l澳元、1新西
兰元、1爱尔兰镑、1欧元兑多少美元的标价
方法。
13
下面的报价形式是可以经常见到的：
USD／DEM （美元兑德国马克）l. 782 5 ／35 USD／JPY （美元兑日元） 126．10／20 USD／CHF（美元兑瑞士法郎）1.504 0 ／50 USD／FRF （美元兑法国法郎） 6.102 0／30 GBP／USD（1英镑兑美元） 1.760 0／10 AUD／USD （澳元兑美元） 0. 820 0／10

托马斯A普格尔《国际金融》课件

Solution 2: Imaging you want to convert dollar into pound: using dollar to buy euro first (1$ =1/0.9839€), and then using the euro to buy pound (1€=1/1.5480₤). The resulting cross-rate is 1$ =0.6566 ₤, or 1₤= 1.5231$ If you want to convert pound into dollar: using pound to buy euro first (1₤ =1.5473€), and then using the euro to buy dollar (1€=0.9836 $). The resulting cross-rate is 1₤ =1.5219$, or 1$ =0.6571₤. So, the effective $/₤ bid and ask cross-rates is $/₤=1.5219/31, and the effective ₤/$ bid and ask cross-rates is ₤/$=0.6566/71

Cross-rate calculations with bid-ask spreads • Example 2.1: consider the following quotes involving the dollar, pound, and the euro. $/€: 0.9836/39 €/₤: 1.5473/1.5480 Compute the effective $/₤ bid and ask cross-rates, as well as the ₤/$ bid and ask cross-rates?

托马斯国际金融课后习题答案解析

Suggested answers to questions and problems(in the textbook)Chapter 22. Disagree, at least as a general statement. One meaning of a current accountsurplus is that the country is exporting more goods and services than it is importing. One might easily judge that this is not good—the country is producing goods and services that are exported, but the country is not at the same time getting the imports of goods and services that would allow it do more consumption and domestic investment. In this way a current account deficit might be considered good—the extra imports allow the country to consume and invest domestically more than the value of its currentproduction. Another meaning of a current account surplus is that the country is engaging in foreign financial investment—it is building up its claims on foreigners, and this adds to national wealth. This sounds good, but as noted above it comes at the cost of foregoing current domestic purchases of goods and services. A current account deficit is the country running down its claims on foreigners or increasing its indebtedness to foreigners. This sounds bad, but it comes with the benefit of higher levels of current domestic expenditure. Different countries at different times may weigh the balance of these costs and benefits differently, so that we cannot simply say thata current account surplus is better than a current account deficit.4. Disagree. If the country has a surplus (a positive value) for its officialsettlements balance, then the value for its official reserves balance must be a negative value of the same amount (so that the two add to zero). A negative value for this asset item means that funds are flowing out in order for the country to acquire more of these kinds of assets. Thus, the country isincreasing its holdings of official reserve assets.6. Item e is a transaction in which foreign official holdings of U.S. assetsincrease. This is a positive (credit) item for official reserve assets anda negative (debit) item for private capital flows as the U.S. bank acquirespound bank deposits. The debit item contributes to a U.S. deficit in the official settlements balance (while the credit item is recorded "below the line," permitting the official settlements balance to be in deficit). All other transactions involve debit and credit items both of which are included in the official settlements balance, so that they do not directly contribute to a deficit (or surplus) in the official settlements balance.8. a. Merchandise trade balance: $330 - 198 = $132Goods and services balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 = $124Current account balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 + 3 - 8 = $119Official settlements balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 + 3 - 8 + 102 - 202 + 4 = $23b. Change in official reserve assets (net) = - official settlements balance= -$23.The country is increasing its net holdings of official reserve assets.10. a. International investment position (billions): $30 + 20 + 15 - 40 - 25 =$0.The country is neither an international creditor nor a debtor. Its holding of international assets equals its liabilities to foreigners.b. A current account surplus permits the country to add to its net claimson foreigners. For this reason the country's international investmentposition will become a positive value. The flow increase in net foreign assets results in the stock of net foreign assets becoming positive.Chapter 32. Exports of merchandise and services result in supply of foreign currency inthe foreign exchange market. Domestic sellers often want to be paid using domestic currency, while the foreign buyers want to pay in their currency.In the process of paying for these exports, foreign currency is exchanged for domestic currency, creating supply of foreign currency. International capital inflows result in a supply of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. In making investments in domestic financial assets, foreigninvestors often start with foreign currency and must exchange it for domestic currency before they can buy the domestic assets. The exchange creates a supply of foreign currency. Sales of foreign financial assets that thecountry's residents had previously acquired, and borrowing from foreigners by this country's residents are other forms of capital inflow that can create supply of foreign currency.4. The U.S. firm obtains a quotation from its bank on the spot exchange ratefor buying yen with dollars. If the rate is acceptable, the firm instructs its bank that it wants to use dollars from its dollar checking account to buy 1 million yen at this spot exchange rate. It also instructs its bank to send the yen to the bank account of the Japanese firm. To carry out thisinstruction, the U.S. bank instructs its correspondent bank in Japan to take1 million yen from its account at the correspondent bank and transfer theyen to the bank account of the Japanese firm. (The U.S. bank could also use yen at its own branch if it has a branch in Japan.)6. The trader would seek out the best quoted spot rate for buying euros withdollars, either through direct contact with traders at other banks or by using the services of a foreign exchange broker. The trader would use the best rate to buy euro spot. Sometime in the next hour or so (or, typically at least by the end of the day), the trader will enter the interbank market again, to obtain the best quoted spot rate for selling euros for dollars. The trader will use the best spot rate to sell her previously acquired euros. If the spot value of the euro has risen during this short time, the trader makesa profit.8. a. The cross rate between the yen and the krone is too high (the yen valueof the krone is too high) relative to the dollar-foreign currency exchange rates. Thus, in a profitable triangular arbitrage, you want to sell kroner at the high cross rate. The arbitrage will be: Use dollars to buy kroner at $0.20/krone, use these kroner to buy yen at 25 yen/krone, and use the yen to buy dollars at $0.01/yen. For each dollar that you sell initially, you can obtain 5 kroner, these 5 kroner can obtain 125 yen, and the 125 yen can obtain $1.25. The arbitrage profit for each dollar is therefore 25 cents.b. Selling kroner to buy yen puts downward pressure on the cross rate (theyen price of krone). The value of the cross rate must fall to 20 (=0.20/0.01) yen/krone to eliminate the opportunity for triangular arbitrage, assuming that the dollar exchange rates are unchanged.10. a. The increase in supply of Swiss francs puts downward pressure on theexchange-rate value ($/SFr) of the franc. The monetary authorities must intervene to defend the fixed exchange rate by buying SFr and selling dollars.b. The increase in supply of francs puts downward pressure on theexchange-rate value ($/SFr) of the franc. The monetary authorities must intervene to defend the fixed exchange rate by buying SFr and selling dollars.c. The increase in supply of francs puts downward pressure on theexchange-rate value ($/SFr) of the franc. The monetary authorities must intervene to defend the fixed exchange rate by buying SFr and selling dollars.d. The decrease in demand for francs puts downward pressure on theexchange-rate value ($/SFr) of the franc. The monetary authorities must intervene to defend the fixed exchange rate by buying SFr and selling dollars.Chapter 42. You will need data on four market rates: The current interest rate (or yield)on bonds issued by the U.S. government that mature in one year, the current interest rate (or yield) on bonds issued by the British government that mature in one year, the current spot exchange rate between the dollar and pound, and the current one-year forward exchange rate between the dollar and pound.Do these rates result in a covered interest differential that is very close to zero?4. a. The U.S. firm has an asset position in yen—it has a long position in yen.To hedge its exposure to exchange rate risk, the firm should enter into a forward exchange contract now in which the firm commits to sell yen and receive dollars at the current forward rate. The contract amounts are to sell1 million yen and receive $9,000, both in 60 days.b. The student has an asset position in yen—a long position in yen. Tohedge the exposure to exchange rate risk, the student should enter into a forward exchange contract now in which the student commits to sell yen and receive dollars at the current forward rate. The contract amounts are to sell10 million yen and receive $90,000, both in 60 days.c. The U.S. firm has an liability position in yen—a short position in yen.To hedge its exposure to exchange rate risk, the firm should enter into a forward exchange contract now in which the firm commits to sell dollars and receive yen at the current forward rate. The contract amounts are to sell $900,000 and receive 100 million yen, both in 60 days.6. Relative to your expected spot value of the euro in 90 days ($1.22/euro),the current forward rate of the euro ($1.18/euro) is low—the forward value of the euro is relatively low. Using the principle of "buy low, sell high,"you can speculate by entering into a forward contract now to buy euros at $1.18/euro. If you are correct in your expectation, then in 90 days you will be able to immediately resell those euros for $1.22/euro, pocketing a profit of $0.04 for each euro that you bought forward. If many people speculate in this way, then massive purchases now of euros forward (increasing the demandfor euros forward) will tend to drive up the forward value of the euro, towarda current forward rate of $1.22/euro.8. a. The Swiss franc is at a forward premium. Its current forward value($0.505/SFr) is greater than its current spot value ($0.500/SFr).b. The covered interest differential "in favor of Switzerland" is ((1 +0.005) (0.505) / 0.500) - (1 + 0.01) = 0.005. (Note that the interest rateused must match the time period of the investment.) There is a coveredinterest differential of 0.5% for 30 days (6 percent at an annual rate). The U.S. investor can make a higher return, covered against exchange rate risk, by investing in SFr-denominated bonds, so presumably the investor should make this covered investment. Although the interest rate on SFr-denominated bonds is lower than the interest rate on dollar-denominated bonds, the forward premium on the franc is larger than this difference, so that the covered investment is a good idea.c. The lack of demand for dollar-denominated bonds (or the supply of thesebonds as investors sell them in order to shift into SFr-denominated bonds) puts downward pressure on the prices of U.S. bonds—upward pressure on U.S.interest rates. The extra demand for the franc in the spot exchange market (as investors buy SFr in order to buy SFr-denominated bonds) puts upward pressure on the spot exchange rate. The extra demand for SFr-denominated bonds puts upward pressure on the prices of Swiss bonds—downward pressure on Swiss interest rates. The extra supply of francs in the forward market (as U.S. investors cover their SFr investments back into dollars) putsdownward pressure on the forward exchange rate. If the only rate that changes is the forward exchange rate, this rate must fall to about $0.5025/SFr. With this forward rate and the other initial rates, the covered interestdifferential is close to zero.10. In testing covered interest parity, all of the interest rates and exchangerates that are needed to calculate the covered interest differential are rates that can observed in the bond and foreign exchange markets. Determining whether the covered interest differential is about zero (covered interest parity) is then straightforward (although some more subtle issues regarding timing of transactions may also need to be addressed). In order to test uncovered interest parity, we need to know not only three rates—two interest rates and the current spot exchange rate—that can be observed in the market, but also one rate—the expected future spot exchange rate—that is notobserved in any market. The tester then needs a way to find out aboutinvestors' expectations. One way is to ask them, using a survey, but they may not say exactly what they really think. Another way is to examine the actual uncovered interest differential after we know what the future spot exchange rate actually turns out to be, and see whether the statistical characteristics of the actual uncovered differential are consistent with an expected uncovered differential of about zero (uncovered interest parity).Chapter 52. a. The euro is expected to appreciate at an annual rate of approximately ((1.005- 1.000)/1.000)⋅(360/180)⋅100 = 1%. The expected uncovered interestdifferential is approximately 3% + 1% - 4% = 0, so uncovered interest parity holds (approximately).b. If the interest rate on 180-day dollar-denominated bonds declines to3%, then the spot exchange rate is likely to increase—the euro willappreciate, the dollar depreciate. At the initial current spot exchange rate, the initial expected future spot exchange rate, and the initial euro interest rate, the expected uncovered interest differential shifts in favor ofinvesting in euro-denominated bonds (the expected uncovered differential is now positive, 3% + 1% - 3% = 1%, favoring uncovered investment ineuro-denominated bonds. The increased demand for euros in the spot exchange market tends to appreciate the euro. If the euro interest rate and theexpected future spot exchange rate remain unchanged, then the current spot rate must change immediately to be $1.005/euro, to reestablish uncovered interest parity. When the current spot rate jumps to this value, the euro's exchange rate value is not expected to change in value subsequently during the next 180 days. The dollar has depreciated immediately, and the uncovered differential then again is zero (3% + 0% - 3% = 0).4. a. For uncovered interest parity to hold, investors must expect that the rateof change in the spot exchange-rate value of the yen equals the interest rate differential, which is zero. Investors must expect that the future spot value is the same as the current spot value, $0.01/yen.b. If investors expect that the exchange rate will be $0.0095/yen, thenthey expect the yen to depreciate from its initial spot value during the next90 days. Given the other rates, investors tend to shift their investmentstoward dollar-denominated investments. The extra supply of yen (and demandfor dollars) in the spot exchange market results in a decrease in the current spot value of the yen (the dollar appreciates). The shift to expecting that the yen will depreciate (the dollar appreciate) sometime during the next 90 days tends to cause the yen to depreciate (the dollar to appreciate)immediately in the current spot market.6. The law of one price will hold better for gold. Gold can be traded easilyso that any price differences would lead to arbitrage that would tend to push gold prices (stated in a common currency by converting prices using market exchange rates) back close to equality. Big Macs cannot be arbitraged. If price differences exist, there is no arbitrage pressure, so the pricedifferences can persist. The prices of Big Macs (stated in a common currency) vary widely around the world.8. According to PPP, the exchange rate value of the DM (relative to the dollar)has risen since the early 1970s because Germany has experienced lessinflation than has the United States—the product price level has risen less in Germany since the early 1970s than it has risen in the United States.According to the monetary approach, the German price level has not risen as much because the German money supply has increased less than the money supply has increased in the United States, relative to the growth rates of real domestic production in the two countries. The British pound is the opposite case—more inflation in Britain than in the United States, and higher money growth in Britain.10. a. Because the growth rate of the domestic money supply (M s) is two percentagepoints higher than it was previously, the monetary approach indicates that the exchange rate value (e) of the foreign currency will be higher than it otherwise would be—that is, the exchange rate value of the country'scurrency will be lower. Specifically, the foreign currency will appreciate by two percentage points more per year, or depreciate by two percentage points less. That is, the domestic currency will depreciate by two percentage points more per year, or appreciate by two percentage points less.b. The faster growth of the country's money supply eventually leads to afaster rate of inflation of the domestic price level (P). Specifically, the inflation rate will be two percentage points higher than it otherwise would be. According to relative PPP, a faster rate of increase in the domestic price level (P) leads to a higher rate of appreciation of the foreign currency.12. a. For the United States in 1975, 20,000 = k⋅100⋅800, or k = 0.25.For Pugelovia in 1975, 10,000 = k⋅100⋅200, or k = 0.5.b. For the United States, the quantity theory of money with a constant kmeans that the quantity equation with k = 0.25 should hold in 2002: 65,000 = 0.25⋅260⋅1,000. It does. Because the quantity equation holds for both years with the same k, the change in the price level from 1975 to 2002 is consistent with the quantity theory of money with a constant k. Similarly, for Pugelovia, the quantity equation with k = 0.5 should hold for 2002, and it does (58,500 = 0.5⋅390⋅300).14. a. The tightening typically leads to an immediate increase in the country'sinterest rates. In addition, the tightening probably also results ininvestors' expecting that the exchange-rate value of the country's currency is likely to be higher in the future. The higher expected exchange-rate value for the currency is based on the expectation that the country's price level will be lower in the future, and PPP indicates that the currency will then be stronger. For both of these reasons, international investors will shift toward investing in this country's bonds. The increase in demand for the country's currency in the spot exchange market causes the currentexchange-rate value of the currency to increase. The currency may appreciatea lot because the current exchange rate must "overshoot" its expected futurespot value. Uncovered interest parity is reestablished with a higher interest rate and a subsequent expected depreciation of the currency.b. If everything else is rather steady, the exchange rate (the domesticcurrency price of foreign currency) is likely to decrease quickly by a large amount. After this jump, the exchange rate may then increase gradually toward its long-run value—the value consistent with PPP in the long run.Chapter 62. We often use the term pegged exchange rate to refer to a fixed exchange rate,because fixed rates generally are not fixed forever. An adjustable peg is an exchange rate policy in which the "fixed" exchange rate value of a currency can be changed from time to time, but usually it is changed rather seldom (for instance, not more than once every several years). A crawling peg is an exchange rate policy in which the "fixed" exchange rate value of a currency is changed often (for instance, weekly or monthly), sometimes according to indicators such as the difference in inflation rates.4. Disagree. If a country is expected to impose exchange controls, which usuallymake it more difficult to move funds out of the country in the future,investors are likely to try to shift funds out of the country now before the controls are imposed. The increase in supply of domestic currency into the foreign exchange market (or increase in demand for foreign currency) puts downward pressure on the exchange rate value of the country's currency—the currency tends to depreciate.6. a. The market is attempting to depreciate the pnut (appreciate the dollar)toward a value of 3.5 pnuts per dollar, which is outside of the top of the allowable band (3.06 pnuts per dollar). In order to defend the pegged exchange rate, the Pugelovian monetary authorities could use official intervention to buy pnuts (in exchange for dollars). Buying pnuts prevents the pnut’s value from declining (selling dollars prevents the dollar’s value from rising). The intervention satisfies the excess private demand for dollars at the current pegged exchange rate.b. In order to defend the pegged exchange rate, the Pugelovian governmentcould impose exchange controls in which some private individuals who want to sell pnuts and buy dollars are told that they cannot legally do this (or cannot do this without government permission, and not all requests areapproved by the government). By artificially restricting the supply of pnuts (and the demand for dollars), the Pugelovian government can force theremaining private supply and demand to "clear" within the allowable band.The exchange controls attempt to stifle the excess private demand for dollars at the current pegged exchange rate.c. In order to defend the pegged exchange rate, the Pugelovian governmentcould increase domestic interest rates (perhaps by a lot). The higherdomestic interest rates shift the incentives for international capital flows toward investments in Pugelovian bonds. The increased flow of international financial capital into Pugelovia increases the demand for pnuts on theforeign exchange market. (Also, the decreased flow of internationalfinancial capital out of Pugelovia reduces the supply of pnuts on the foreign exchange market.) By increasing the demand for pnuts (and decreasing the supply), the Pugelovian government can induce the private market to clear within the allowable band. The increased domestic interest rates attempt to shift the private supply and demand curves so that there is no excess private demand for dollars at the current pegged exchange rate value.8. a. The gold standard was a fixed rate system. The government of each countryparticipating in the system agreed to buy or sell gold in exchange for its own currency at a fixed price of gold (in terms of its own currency). Becauseeach currency was fixed to gold, the exchange rates between currencies also tended to be fixed, because individuals could arbitrage between gold and currencies if the currency exchange rates deviated from those implied by the fixed gold prices.b. Britain was central to the system, because the British economy was theleader in industrialization and world trade, and because Britain wasconsidered financially secure and prudent. Britain was able and willing to run payments deficits that permitted many other countries to run payments surpluses. The other countries used their surpluses to build up theirholdings of gold reserves (and of international reserves in the form of sterling-denominated assets). These other countries were satisfied with the rate of growth of their holdings of liquid reserve assets, and most countries were able to avoid the crisis of running low on international reserves.c. During the height of the gold standard, from about 1870 to 1914, theeconomic shocks to the system were mild. A major shock—World War I—caused many countries to suspend the gold standard.d. Speculation was generally stabilizing, both for the exchange ratesbetween the currencies of countries that were adhering to the gold standard, and for the exchange rates of countries that temporarily allowed theircurrencies to float.10. a. The Bretton Woods system was an adjustable pegged exchange rate system.Countries committed to set and defend fixed exchange rates, financingtemporary payments imbalances out of their official reserve holdings. If a "fundamental disequilibrium" in a country's international paymentsdeveloped, the country could change the value of its fixed exchange rate toa new value.b. The United States was central to the system. As the Bretton Woods systemevolved, it became essentially a gold-exchange standard. The monetaryauthorities of other countries committed to peg the exchange rate values of their currencies to the U.S. dollar. The U.S. monetary authority committed to buy and sell gold in exchange for dollars with other countries' monetary authorities at a fixed dollar price of gold.c. To a large extent speculation was stabilizing, both for the fixed ratesfollowed by most countries, and for the exchange rate value of the Canadian dollar, which floated during 1950-62. However, the pegged exchange ratevalues of currencies sometimes did come under speculative pressure.International investors and speculators sometimes believed that they had a one-way speculative bet against currencies that were considered to be "in trouble.” If the country did manage to defend the pegged exchange rate value of its currency, the investors betting against the currency would loselittle. They stood to gain a lot of profit if the currency was devalued.Furthermore, the large speculative flows against the currency required large interventions to defend the currency's pegged value, so that the government was more likely to run so low on official reserves that it was forced to devalue.12. a. The dollar bloc and the euro bloc. A number of countries peg their currenciesto the U.S. dollar. A number of European countries use the euro, and, in addition, a number of other countries peg their currencies to the euro.b. The other major currencies that float independently include (as of thebeginning of 2002) the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc.c. The exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and the other major currencieshave been floating since the early 1970s. The movements in these rates exhibit trends in the long run—over the entire period since the early 1970s. The rates also show substantial variability or volatility in the short and medium runs—periods of less than one year to periods of several years. The long run trends appear to be reasonably consistent with the economic fundamentals emphasized by purchasing power parity—differences in national inflation rates. The variability or volatility in the short or medium run iscontroversial. It may simply represent rational responses to the continuing flow of economic and political news that has implications for exchange rate values. The effects on rates can be large and rapid, because overshooting occurs as rates respond to important news. However, some part of the large volatility may also reflect speculative bandwagons that lead to bubbles that subsequently burst.Chapter 72. Disagree. In a sense a national government cannot go bankrupt, because itcan print its own currency. But a national government can refuse to honor its obligations, even if it might be able to pay. If the benefit from not paying exceeds the cost of not paying, the government may rationally refuse to pay. And, a national government can run short of foreign currency to payobligations denominated in foreign currency, because it cannot print foreign money.4. The debt crisis in 1982 was precipitated by (a) increased cost of servicingdebt, because of a rise in interest rates in the United States and other developed countries as tighter monetary policies were used to fightinflation, (b) decreased export earnings in the debtor countries, because of decreased demand and lower commodity prices as the tighter monetarypolicies resulted in a world recession, and (c) an investor shift tocurtailing new lending and trying to get old loans repaid quickly, once it became clear that (a) and (b) would lead to some defaults.6. With free international lending Japan lends 1,800 (= 6,000 - 4,200) toAmerica, at point T. If Japan and America each impose a 2 percent tax on international lending, the total tax is 4 percent. The gap WZ restoresequilibrium, and the amount lent internationally declines to 600 (= 6,000 - 5,400). The interest rate in Japan (and the one received net of taxes by Japan’s international lenders) is 3 percent and the interest rate in America (and the one paid including taxes by Amer ica’s international borrowers) is7 percent. (The difference is the 4 percent of taxes.) Japan’s governmentcollects international-lending tax revenues equal to area r, but this is effectively paid by Japanese lenders who see their earnings on the 600 of foreign lending that continues decline by this amount. The net effect on Japan is a loss of area n because the taxes prevent some previously profitable lending from occurring. America’s government collects tax revenues equal to area k, but this is effectively paid by American borrowers who must paya higher interest rate on their foreign borrowing. The net effect on Americais a loss of area j because of the decline in international borrowing.。

国际金融PPT第一章

完整版课件ppt
20
第三节欧洲经济与货币联盟和欧洲单一货币——欧元
欧洲货币体系产生的背景过程中实现的三个目标：第一、协调成员国的经济和金融政策，缩小成员国货币汇率的波动幅度；第二、建立共同的储备基金，支持成员国干预外汇市场，协助成员国解决国际收支困难；第三、实现商品、劳动力、资本的自由流动，实现固定汇率发行统一的货币，建立共同的统一联合银行。
• 广义的国际收入指的是指一国在一定的时期之内，居民与非居民之间的各种国际经济交易的总和。
完整版课件ppt
2
第二节国际收支平衡表的基本结构
• 国际收支平衡表的概念 • 国际收支平衡表指的是一国在一定的时期内发生的全部国际经济交易，以货币为计量
单位，按照经济交易的特征设计的账户类别而进行系统的归类后所形成的统计报表。 • 经常账户是反应一国与他国之间真实资源转移的项目。（货物和服务、收入——收益、
国际金融
第一篇国际金融基础第一章国际收支
第一节国际收支概述第二节国际收支平衡表的基本结构第三节中国和欧盟地区的国际收支平衡表第四节国际收支的分析与运用
完整版课件ppt
1
第一节国际收支概述
• 国际收支的概念及演变（识记）
• 狭义的国际收支和广义的国际收支的概述
• 狭义的国际收支是指一国在一定的时期之内，居民与非居民之间的所有外汇收入和外汇支出的总和。
完整版课件ppt
21
第三节欧洲经济与货币联盟和欧洲单一货币——欧元
欧洲货币体系的内容
第一、创立欧洲货币单位（是欧洲货币体系的核心），实质上是”一篮子货币“
第二、实行联合浮动汇率制（所谓的联合浮动是指的是在成员国之间实行固定的汇率制，对非成员国实行浮动汇率制）——双重汇率；干预的方法：一是通过个中央银行的相互贷款来干预外汇市场；二是国内实行有效的财政政策和货币政策来干预外汇市场；三是改变中心汇率

国际金融第十五版教学设计

国际金融第十五版教学设计
课程介绍
本课程是国际金融专业的核心课程，旨在帮助学生掌握国际金融的基本理论、
政策和实践知识，理解国际金融市场的特点和机制，掌握金融风险管理的方法和工具，以及学会运用国际金融知识和技能解决实际问题。

教学目标
1.理解国际金融的基本概念和原理。

2.熟悉国际金融市场的组织和运作。

3.掌握外汇市场、国际金融资本市场和国际债券市场的交易和投资方法。

4.理解国际金融政策的制定和执行过程。

5.掌握国际金融风险管理的方法和工具。

6.了解国际金融市场的发展趋势和未来变化。

教学内容
第一章国际金融概述
1.国际金融的定义和基本原理。

2.国际收支平衡和汇率的形成及变化。

3.国际金融的主要参与者和组织。

4.国际支付和清算体系。

第二章外汇市场
1.外汇市场的交易和投资。

2.外汇汇率制度及演变。

3.国际支付和汇款。

1。

第一章CH01-国际金融托马斯第15版

记账方法：从非居民处获得收入，记入贷方；向非居民支付收入，记入借方。
• Unilateral Transfers(secondary income，二次收入): Includes items such as:
– Government grants abroad政府捐助 – Private remittances私人汇款 – Private grants abroad私人捐助
对每笔经济交易都有两次价值相等、方向相反的账目记录，一次记入贷方(credit)，一次记入借方(debit)。 • Credit item(+): Transactions that generate a payment inflow （receive payments from a foreigner）(e.g., export).（贷方，正号/positive sign ） • Debit item(-): Transactions that generate a payment outflow(make payments to a foreigner) (e.g., import).(借方，负号/negative sign )
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Chapter 1
Balance of Payments
FENG Cai
国际收支
Main contents
• Balance of payments • Balance of payments statements • Interpretation of different BOP balances (or sub-balances) • Disequilibrium of Balance of payments • International investment position

国际金融第一章[1]

PPT文档演模板
国际金融第一章[1]
1.2外国在华直接投资：贷方表示外国投资者在我国设立外商投资企业的投资，包括股本金、收益再投资和其他资本；总投资额数据来源于外经贸部。借方表示外商企业的撤资和清算资金汇出我国。 2、证券投资：包括股本证券和债务证券两类证券投资形式。 2.1资产：借方表示我国持有的非居民证券资产增加；贷方表示我国持有的非居民证券资产减少。 2.1.1 股本证券：包括以股票为主要形式的证券。 2.1.2 债务证券：包括中长期债券和一年期（含一年）以下的短期债券和货币市场有价证券，如短期国库券、商业票据、短期可转让大额存单等。 2.2负债：贷方表示当期我国发行的股票和债券筹资额，借方表示当期股票的收回和债券的还本。 2.2.1 股本证券：包括我国发行的B股、H股等境内外上市外资股。 2.2.2 债务证券：包括我国发行的中长期债券和短期商业票据等。
2、国际收支平衡表中的贷方项目是：货物和服务的出口、收益收入、接受的货物和资金的无偿援助、金融负债的增加和金融资产的减少。
3、国际收支平衡表中的借方项目是：货物和服务的进口、收益支出、对外提供的货物和资金无偿援助、金融资产的增加和金融负债的减少。
PPT文档演模板
国际金融第一章[1]
1.凡是引起本国从外国获得货币收入的交易记入贷方，引起本国对外国货币支付的交易记入借方。
6.金融服务：包括金融中介和辅助服务收支。
PPT文档演模板
国际金融第一章[1]
7.计算机和信息服务：包括计算机数据和与信息、新闻有关的服务交易收支。
8.专有权利使用费和特许费：包括使用无形资产的专有权、特许权等发生的收支。
9.咨询：包括法律、会计、管理、技术等方面的咨询服务收支。

国际金融托马斯复习资料

C2国际收支Payments among Nations1复式记账Double-entry bookkeeping概Any exchange automatically enters the balance-of-payments accounts twice as a credit and as a debit of the same value.规则:贷方项目A credit (+) is flow for which the country is paid;借方项目A debit (-) is flow for which the country must pay.例子:1出口(贷),进口(借);2本国常住者为外国人提供劳务或者从外国取得投资及其他收入(贷);而外国人为本国常住者提供劳务或从本国取得收入(借);3本国常住者获得(指购买)外国资产(借),外国常住者获得本国资产(贷);4外国人偿还债务(贷),本国居民偿还外债(借);5本国常住者收到国外单方面转移(贷),本国常住者对外国单方面转移(借);6官方储备减少(贷),官方储备增加(借)2国际收支Balance of Payments (BOP):The set of accounts recording all flows of value between a nation’s residents and the residents of the rest of the world during a period of time.Free on board(FOB离岸价): it implies that distributive services like transport and handling performed on goods up to the customs frontier of the economy from which the goods are exported are classed as merchandise.2.1经常项目Current Account balanceIt is the net value of the flows of goods, service, income, and Unilateral transfers.If it is positive, the nation earns that much in extra assets or reduced liabilities in its dealings with other countries. If it is negative, the country must pay by giving up assets or increasing its liabilities.Goods and services balance equals the net exports of both goods and services. It is often called the trade balance.包括:1Merchandise trade flows;2Service flows;3Income flows;4Unilateral transfer2.2资本项目financial Account BalanceThe net flows of financial assets and similar claims (excluding official asset flows) is the private capital account balance or financial account balance.资本项目记录的只是资产交易的本金金额(principal amounts),而投资国外资产的任何所得(earnings)均记录在经常项目中.1美国居民增持外国金融资产(股票、债券或贷款凭证),记入借方,该居民对外国付款或增加贷款,资金流出美国(-)2外国居民增持美国金融资产(股票、债券或贷款凭证),记入贷方,美国卖方(或借款人)接受外国的付款(或得到贷款),资金流入美国(+)3美国居民减持外国金融资产(股票、债券或贷款凭证),记入贷方,该居民接受外国的付款(或收回借款),资金流入美国(+)4外国居民减持美国金融资产(股票、债券或贷款凭证),记入借方,美国的买方(或借款人)对外国付款(或归还贷款),资金流出美国(-)从金融资产本身流向:2和3,美国出口金融资产(exporting financial assets),记为正;1和例4,美国进口金融资产(importing financial assets),记为负.从资金的流向:2 3是资本进口(capital imports),1 4是资本出口(capital exports)外国直接投资(foreign direct investment)是:由某主体(多为跨国公司)对其控股和掌控的国外企业进行的任何一种资金出借或产权购买.间接投资包括证券、贷款以及银行存款.投资于国外的债券和股票不属于对外直接投资,而是国际证券投资(international portfolio investment).它表明投资者并不拥有被投资企业的大额股份,而只是将这种投资作为其多样化投资的一个组成部分.2.3官方国际储备资产official international reserve assetsThey are money-like assets that are held by governments and that are recognized by governments as fully acceptable for payments between them.The main reserve assets are:Gold,Free exchange currencies,Reserve position in the IMF(IMF的储备头寸),Special drawing right(特别提款权)官方一词用以说明此类资产是由与货币相关的政府部门掌握的资产,而非整个政府拥有的资产.其他"非官方"政府资产则归于私人项目类别中.焦点是集中在调控币值这一货币管理任务.2.4统计误差statistical discrepancyIt’s the net result of errors and omissions on both the credit and debit sides.The main difficulty is probably that many people succeed in hiding their imports, their imports, their foreign investment incomes, and their capital flight from their own government officials.3 经常项目差额的宏观含义CA: Current account balanceIf: Net foreign investment对外净投资S: National saving 国民储蓄Id: Domestic real investment in buildings, equipment, software and inventories国内直接投资Y: Domestic production of G&S国内商品和服务的总产出C: Domestic household consumption of G&S本国对商品和服务的私人消费支出G: Government spending on G&S政府对商品和服务的购买X: Foreign purchases of the country’s exports of G&S外国对本国商品和服务购买M: The country’s purchases of imports of G&S from other countries本国对外国商品和服务的购买E: National expenditure on G&S一国对商品和服务的总支出If:The net accumulation of foreign assets minus foreign liabilities.①CA= If②S = If +Id(Id :投资于国内用于本国资本形成;If:投资于国外)①②→③CA=S-Id④X-M=CA⑤Y=C+ Id + G+ X-M⑥E = C + Id + G ④⑤⑥→⑦CA= Y-E一国经常项目盈余:①该国净对外投资为正(即该国对于其他国家来说是净债权国或投资国).The country has positive If.(the country is a net lender or investor to other countries)③该国国民储蓄超出国内投资.The country is saving more than investing domestically.⑦该国的国内生产超出了(或说收入超出了)其对商品和服务的消费.The country is producing more (and has more income from this production) than it is spending on goods and services.4总差额的宏观含义The overall balanceB:Official settlements balance官方结算差FA:Financial account balance金融项目差额OR: Official Reserve官方储备资产B=CA+FA(The official settlement balance equals the sum of the current account balance plus the private capital account balance)B+OR=0(由于国际收支平衡表中所有项目的总和必须为零，官方结算差额中任何不平衡都必须通过官方储备流动予以补抵(或支付))如果总差额B为盈余,即意味着本国官方储备资产的增加或外国官方储备持有本国资产的减少(即在本国的官方储备账户中有一个借方差额).如果总差额为赤字,即意味着本国持有的官方储备资产减少或外国官方储备中持有的本国资产累积增加(即在本国官方储备账户有一个贷方差额).一国货币当局可以出售外币而购回本币,这种交易可以减少当局官方国际储备中外汇资产的持有量;或者,货币当局也可以出售本币而购买外币,这种交易增加了官方国际储备.5国际投资头寸A nation’s international investment position shows its stocks of international assets and liabilities at a moment of time.一国是贷款国(lender)还是借款国(borrower),是根据该国一定时期内经常项目差额是盈余还是赤字来判断的.一国是债权国(creditor)或是债务国(debtor),是根据该国持有的外国资产净存量是正值还是负值来判断的.前者涉及的是一段时期内的流量,后者涉及的是某一时点的存量.C3外汇市场The Foreign Exchange Market1货币交易的基本知识1.1国际汇兑Foreign exchange is the act of trading different nation’s moneys.1.2汇率An exchange rate is the price of one nation’s money in terms of another nation’s money.即期汇率The spot exchange rate is the price for "immediately" exchange.远期汇率The forward exchange rate is the price now for an exchange that will take place sometime in the future.汇率报价Exchange Rate Quotation:直接标价法(A U.S. dollar price of the other currency)、间接标价法(The price of the U.S. dollar in units of the other currency).两者互为倒数(The pairs of prices are just reciprocals)分母是外币,分子是本币,就是直接标价法;分母是本币,分子是外币,则为间接标价法.1.3外汇市场小额交易:银行及其交易员与客户进行的交易The trading done with customers is called the retail part of the market银行间同业市场:银行之间进行的交易The trading done between the banks active in the market is called the inter-bank part of the market.媒介货币Vehicle Currency: One foreign currency is exchanged for dollars, and these dollars arethen exchanged for the other foreign currency.2外汇的供给与需求Demand and Supply for Foreign Exchange2.1影响汇率的因素商品和服务出口将带来外国货币的供给以及对本币需求的增加;商品和服务的进口将带来对外国货币的需求和本币的供给增加;资本流出将致使外国货币需求以及本币供给的增加,资本流入将致使外国货币供给以及本币需求的增加.2.2浮动汇率Floating Exchange RatesThe spot price of foreign currency is market-driven, determined by the interaction of private demand and supply for the currency..外汇的即期价格由市场决定,即由对货币的私人需求与供给的相互作用而决定,市场通过价格机制出清.在浮动汇率制中,如果某种外币的需求曲线因某种原因右移(代表对外汇需求的增加),同时供给曲线保持不变,该外币的汇率便会上升.2.3固定汇率Fixed Exchange RatesOfficial strive to keep the exchange rate virtually fixed (or pegged) even if the rate they choose differs from the current equilibrium rate. A narrow band of exchange rates is allowed to vary.If the exchange rate hits the top or bottom of the band, the officials must intervene.在这种制度下,即使这一汇率与当前的均衡汇率有偏差,官方也会尽力保持汇率基本不变(或钉住其他货币).通常,官方会宣布一个窄幅的汇率区间,汇率可以在这一区间内变动.如果汇率达到了这一区间的上限或下限,官方必须予以干预.Under the floating-rate system a fall in the market price of a currency is called a depreciation of that currency; a rise is an appreciation. Under the fixed-rate system, a discrete official reduction in the otherwise fixed par value of a currency is called a devaluation; a discrete raising of the official par is a revaluation.在浮动汇率中,市场价格(汇率价值)的下降被称为该货币的下浮;市场价格的上升则称为上浮.在固定汇率制下,我们将官方人为地降低货币平价的做法称为货币的贬值);官方人为地提高货币平价称为升值.2.4各国汇率制度安排多数主要货币之间采用的都是浮动汇率;尽管其他很多国家政府都对外汇市场进行了一定程度的官方干预来限制汇率的波动,但他们也宣称实行的是浮动汇率制;一些国家和地区在本币与美元之间采用固定汇率;一些国家与欧元保持固定汇率.3即期外汇市场中的套汇交易套汇Arbitrage, the process of buying and selling to make a nearly riskless pure profit, ensures that rates in different locations are essentially the same, and that rates and cross-rates are related and consistent among themselves.三角套汇there is an opportunity to make a riskless profit by arbitraging through the three rates, a process called triangular arbitrage.C4外汇期货与国际金融投资Forward Exchange and International Financial Investment1汇率风险Exchange Rate RiskThe net worth of income, wealth will changes when exchange rates change unpredictably in the future.保值Hedging:It is the act of reducing or eliminating a net asset or net liability position in the foreign currency.投机Speculating:It is the act of taking a net asset position or a net liability position in some asset class (in foreign currency).2外汇期货的基本知识远期外汇合约A forward foreign exchange contract is an agreement to exchange one currency for another on some date in the future at a price set now (the forward exchange rate).Common dates for future exchange are 30,90,180 days forward.2.1外汇期货的套期保值Hedging Using Forward Foreign ExchangeHedging involves acquiring an asset in a foreign currency to offset a net liability position already held in the foreign currency, or acquiring a liability in a foreign currency to offset a net asset position already held. Hedging means avoiding both kinds of open positions in a foreign currency, both long positions and short positions.套期保值指取得某种外币资产以抵补已持有的该货币的净负债头寸,或用某种外币的净负债抵消已持有的该种外币的净资产头寸.套期保值就是减少同一外币"敞口"(open positions),即多头头寸和空头头寸2.2外汇期货投机在投机中,未来的不确定性给投机者本币计值的净财富带来了风险和盈利机会.任何愿意持有外币头寸的人都是投机者,不论他们对于远期汇率抱有什么样的动机和预期.外汇期货Currency Futures:by entering into a currency futures contract, you can effectively lock in the price at which you buy or sell a foreign currency at a set date in the future.与远期外汇合约的不同:A standard contract;Require a margin to ensure your trading;Profit or losses accrued daily; Low-cost direct method for currency hedging or speculation.外汇期权Currency Option:a Currency Option gives the buyer(or holder) of the right, but not the obligation, to buy foreign currency (a call option) or to sell foreign currency at sometime in the future at a price set today期权是一种有价值的权利,买方向期权的卖方支付一定的权利金才能获得期权外汇掉期Currency Swap:in a currency swap two parties agree to exchange flows of different currencies during a specified period of time.3国际金融投资International Financial Investment3.1抵补的国际投资A hedged investment is called covered international investment.抵补利差Covered Interest Differential: ①CD=(1+iUK)f/e-(1+iUS) 如果该差值为正,那么在英国投资较为有利.如果为负,那么投资就应转向美国国内.远期升水Forward premium (F) is the proportionate difference between the current forward exchange rate value of the pound and its current spot value, ②F=(f-e)/e远期升水(以百分比形式表示)表明即期持有的英镑增值比例,它是以即期汇率买入英镑,并在将来以即期的远期汇率卖出英镑的投资行为.如果F为负,则英镑处于远期贴水(discount),也就是以即期汇率买入英镑,而在将来以现在的远期汇率卖出英镑的行为使得即期持有的英镑价值减少.更加简洁的公式,抵补利差约等于英镑的远期升水加上利差:①②→CD=F+(iUK - iUS)这表明在图中,选择湖边哪一条路径取决于英镑的远期升水与两种货币利差的比较结果.美国投资者通过在英国进行投资所获得的抵补后的总收益(以美元表示)近似等于下面两项之和:货币兑换时即期汇率与远期汇率之差所带来的收益(英镑的远期升水F)加上英镑投资本身的利息收益iUK.The overall covered return in dollars to U.S. investor from investing in Britain is approximately equal to the sum of two components:The gain of loss from the spot and forward currency exchanges plus the interest return on the pound investment itself.抵补利差近似等于投资英镑资产获得的抵补后总收益(F+iUK)与投资美元资产获得的收益(iUS)之差.2.抵补套利Covered Interest ArbitrageIt is buying a country’s currency spot and selling that currency forward, to make a net profit from the combination of the difference in interest rates between countries and the forward premium on that country’s currency.3.抵补利率平价Covered Interest ParityThe opportunities to make arbitrage profits would be self -eliminating because the forward exchange rate would adjust so that the covered interest differential return to zero.We refer to the condition CD=0 as covered interest parity.抵补利率平价有两种等价的表达式:1一国货币的远期升水(贴水)等于该国利率低于(高于)另一国利率数额(F=iUS -iUK). 2投资于一种外币的总抵补收入等于投资于本币的总收入(F+iUK=iUS).如果一国的利率低于美国的相应利率,那么该国的货币便为远期升水,利率的百分比之差将等于远期升水的百分比.如果即期汇率上升而两国利率差没有发生变化,那么远期汇率就必须上升以维持远期升水不变.在这种情况中,任何使即期汇率上升(或下降)的因素也将会使远期汇率同样上升(或下降).即,长时间内,即期汇率与远期汇率之间存在高度的正相关关系.3.2无抵补的国际投资Uncovered international financial investment involves investing in a financial asset denominated in a foreign currency without hedging or covering the future proceeds of the investment back into one’s own currency.投资者可用预期的将来即期汇率(ex)来预测无抵补国际投资的预期总收益.预期的无抵补利差:)1(/)1(us ex uk i e e i EUD +-•+=近似公式等于预期外币升值率(如果为负,则为贬值率)加上两国的利率差:EUD=Expected appreciation + (iUK-iUS)为什么有人愿意进行这种投资呢?一是与收益相关,二是与风险相关.无抵补投资的预期总收益可能会大于在国内投资的收益(EUD为正).投资者预计所承担的风险会得到足够的补偿.尤其当实际的将来即期汇率远低于预期值时.无抵补利率平价Uncovered Interest Parity:A currency is expected to appreciate (depreciate) by as much as its interest rate is lower (higher) than the interest rate in the other country.两种表达形式:1一种货币的预期升值(贬值)幅度和该国利率低于(高于)他国利率的差值相同.(英镑预期升值率=iUS-iUK);2投资于一种外币的预期无抵补总收益等于投资于本币的总收益.(预期升值率+iUK=iUS).C5汇率的决定1短期汇率决定:汇率的资产市场理论1.The asset market approach exchange rates as being part of the equilibrium for markets for financial assets denominated in different currencies.最好的办法是考察以不同货币计值的资产的供求状况,了解短期汇率面临的压力.只需研究以各种货币计值的有价证券(政府债券)Four variables变量should be considered: the domestic interest rate, the foreign interest rate, the current spot exchange rate, and the expected future spot exchange rate.投资者确定未抵补的外汇债券投资总收益的依据是:债券本身的基本收益(由利率或收益率决定);预期汇率收益或损失(预期外汇升值或贬值)如果未抵补利率平价成立(至少是近似地成立),那么国内和国外利率(i和if)或预期的将来即期汇率(eex)的任何变化都可以导致未抵补利差以及需要重建未抵补利率平价的压力.如下变化将促使即期汇率e(外汇的价格)上升:利差(if-i)增加;预期将来即期汇率(eex)上升.2.预期的将来即期汇率的作用顺势效应Bandwagon: currencies that have been appreciating are expected to continue to do so. 预期也建立在汇率最终与基本经济面保持一致;汇率预期的改变源于很多新的信息经济模型几乎没有能力预测从短期到未来(一年或更短的时间内)的汇率.主要是因为不可预测的新闻是影响短期汇率变动的重要因素,但这也反映了预期会推动短期汇率变动,导致顺势效应(bandwagon effect)以及投机泡沫(speculative bubbles).2长期汇率分析:2.1购买力评价the purchasing power parity (PPP)1.一价定律:The law of one price posits that a product that is easily and freely traded in a perfectly competitive global market should have the same price everywhere, once the prices at different places are expressed in the same currency.一种商品如果能在完全竞争的国际市场上自由买卖,那么该种商品在不同地方使用同一种货币表示的价格应当相等.P=e•PfP:用本国货币表示的某种商品的国内价格; Pf:即期汇率(e:本币价格／外币价格)换算得到的该种商品的外币价格2.绝对购买力评价Absolute purchasing power parity:The average price of these products stated in different currencies is the same when converted to a common currency.一组或一篮子可贸易产品在不同国家以同种货币表示的价格是相同的.P=e•Pf, e=P/PfP 是用本币表示的产品平均价格水平,Pf 是用外币表示的产品平均价格水平.两个等式是相同的,除了价格变量在一价定律中是指某种商品的价格,而在绝对PPP 定理中,指一组商品的价格.理论:国际竞争逐渐使国内外贸易商品和服务的价格均等化3.相对购买力评价Relative purchasing power parity:The difference between changes over time in product -price levels in two countries will be offset by the change in the exchange rate over this time.一段时期内,两国间产品价格水平的差会被同期内汇率的变化值所抵消.⎪⎪⎭⎫ ⎝⎛=⎥⎦⎤⎢⎣⎡0,,00//f t f t P P P Pt e e常用近似表达式:Rate of appreciation of the foreign currency= π-πfΠ是国内的通胀率,πf 是外国通胀率相对购买力平价理论为预测汇率的波动趋势尤其是长期趋势,提供了强有力的工具:通货膨胀率相对较低国家的货币在外汇市场上趋向升值;通货膨胀率相对较高国家的货币在外汇市场上趋向贬值.Recent experience结论:短期内,汇率会明显偏离其PPP 价值;但就长期而言,购买力平价理论成立.2.2货币分析方法the monetary approach to exchange rates.Ms 和Msf 分别为本国和外国货币供应量,P 和Pf 分别代表本国和外国的价格水平,y 和yf 分别表示本国和外国实际(按照不变价格计算的)国内产出.k 和kf 分别表示本国和外国的货币持有量与其名义GDP 之间的比例关系)/)(/)(/()/(Y Y k k M M P P e f f Sf S f ==这一方程表明,当外国的货币供给增长放缓(Ms ／Msf 的比率上升)、外国实际产出增长加快(Yf ／y 的比率上升)或kf/k 比率上升时,外国货币升值;反之,当外国货币供应急剧增长且实体经济停滞不前时,外国货币会贬值.2.货币供给对汇率的影响:The change of money supply should lead to the same extent change of exchange rate.3.实际收入对汇率的影响:1The change of real incomes should lead to the same extent change of exchange rate.2The effect of real incomes on exchange rate is different according the reason for the change of real incomes, such as supply -side or aggregate -demand reason.3中期趋势3.1汇率超调Exchange rate overshootingThe rapid, large reaction of the current exchange rate to such news as a changes in monetary policy is called overshooting.4名义有效汇率nominal effective exchange rate is a weighted average of the market ratesacross a number of foreign currencies是取一组外国货币加权,得到平均汇率值.实际有效汇率real effective exchange rate is a weighted average of real bilateral exchange rates across a number of foreign countries是对一组其他国家的实际双边汇率加权后的真实汇率.实际汇率(RER)可用于衡量对PPP的偏离幅度,同时也能反映出一国的价格竞争优势.C6政府外汇政策Government Policies toward the Foreign Exchange Market1为什么政府干预Why Does Governments Intervene? 1Exchange rate fluctuating. 2Exchange rates are very important price.3The control of exchange rates can benefit the country.干预的两种方式:1 Those policies that are directly applied to the exchange rate. (exchange rate control) 2 Those policies that directly state who may use the foreign exchange market and for what purpose. (foreign exchange control)政府对市场准入资格的限制:1完全自由兑换fully convertible 2外汇管制Exchange Control:the country’s government places some restrictions on use of the foreign exchange market 3 资本管制Capital controls:by placing limits or requiring approvals for payments related to some international financial activities 4对一部分需求限制,如奢侈品2浮动汇率清洁浮动Clean float : the rate is free to go wherever the market equilibrium is at the time. It is the polar case of complete flexibility.有管理的浮动或肮脏浮动Managed float or dirty float: the rate is generally floating but with the government willing to intervene to attempt to influence the market rate.3固定汇率The government sets the exchange rate that it wants. The rate is permitted within a band(区间) around the par value(外汇平价) or central value(中心值).3.1与何种货币挂钩What to Fixed to?1The country chosen to fix to the specific amounts gold many years ago.2The country could choose to fix the value of its currency to some other currency, such as U.S. Dollar.3The country could choose to fix to a basket of currencies, such SDR or a basket currencies created by itself.SDR:It is a reserve asset created by the International Monetary Fund.3.2何时调整固定汇率钉住汇率Pegged exchange rate: the government bind its currency to a specific currency and the rate fluctuates with its target currency.可调整钉住汇率Adjustable peg: the government may try to keep the rate fixed for a long periods of time.蠕动钉住汇率Crawling peg: the rate can be changed often according to a set of indicators or the judgment of the monetary authority.如果采用指标法indicator:inflation rate(本国与被钉住国),official international reserve assets,the growth of the country’s money supply,the current actual market exchange rate relative to the central par value of the pegged rate3.3固定汇率的维持Defending a Fixed Exchange Rate?1Intervene in the foreign exchange market;2Impose some form of exchange control;3Alter domestic interest rates to influence short-term capital flows; 4Change its fiscal or monetary policy;5To surrender rather than defend4官方干预下的固定汇率Defense Through Official Intervention4.1阻止本币贬值的干预Defending against depreciationIf the clearing rate is above the top of a government’s allowed band, government must intervene to maintain the fixed rate by selling foreign currency and buying domestic currency.卖外汇,买本币Through intervention the monetary authority is financing the country’s deficit in its official settlement balance.用本国官方结算赤字的方法,为本国赤字融资如何阻止How Does a Government Defend1 The monetary authority uses its own official international reserve assets, or it borrows the reserve assets abroad.2Swap lines(互换信贷额度) and loan are typical borrowing.3冲销型干预Defending with SterilizationThe monetary authority restores the domestic money into macroeconomy while it intervenes the foreign exchange market by buying domestic money. The money supply will not change if the monetary authority sterilize.4.2阻止本币升值的干预Defending against appreciationIf the clearing rate is below the bottom of a government’s allowed band, the government must intervene to maintain the fixed rate by buying foreign currency and selling domestic currency.买入外币,卖出本币This results in an official settlements balance surplus.官方结算差额盈余The country’s holdings of official reserve assets increase.官方储备资产增加The intervention will expand the domestic money supply if the monetary authority does not sterilize.货币供给增加,除非冲销4.3暂时性失衡Temporary disequilibrium如果失衡是暂时的,单纯对固定汇率干预是合理有效的,货币当局可以对连续出现的赤字和盈余进行干预,实际上对暂时性的赤字和盈余进行干预优于让汇率上下波动条件Stringent Conditions for Temporary Intervention:1 个人投机者不能预测外汇供求变化;2 政府必须能够预测4.4非暂时性失衡Disequilibrium that is not temporaryIf the country’s official settlements balance is not temporary, the intervention of government will lead to a continually accumulating or losing reserves.赤字型更赤字,盈余型更盈余It will become worse if private investors and speculators observe the government’s reserve losses and begin to attack the currency. A one-way speculative gamble exists.单项投机5外汇管制Exchange Control平行市场A parallel market private demanders and sellers of foreign exchange to evade the exchange controls.C7国际贷款与金融危机International Lending and Financial Crisis1类型Different Types of International Lending:Long term and short term lending;Private and official lendingPrivate Lending And Investing:Long term: direct investment; loans; portfolio investment、Short term: maturity is in one yearOfficial Lending And Investing:By a government;By multilateral institution ;By IMF;By WB国际借贷两种收益:跨期交易intertemporal trade;使双方资产组合多样化2国际借贷收益与损失Gains and Losses From Well-Behaved International Lending3国际借贷税Taxes On International Lending国家最优税率nationally optimal tax:If a country looms large enough to have power over the world market rate of return, it can exploit this market power to its own advantage at the expense of other countries and the world as a whole.4金融危机的根源financial crisis:what can and does go wrong1.过渡放贷与过度借债Waves Of Overlending And Overborrowing1 The government has an incentive to default when it has borrowed too much.Large capital inflows lead to easy domestic credit.2 Lending goes to investments that are of low quality.3 The capital inflows and lending boom tend to inflate stock price and real estate prices.2.外部冲击Exogenous International Shocks:1A decline in export prices;2An increase of interest rate3.汇率风险Exchange Rate Risk1The governments of developing countries can not fixed their exchange rate to major currencies all the time.2Foreign lenders may reduce new lending and try to be repaid more quickly when the likelihood of devaluation or depreciation become noticeable.4.变幻无常的短期国际借债Fickle International Short-Term Lending1Short-term debts is risky to the borrowing country because international lenders can easily shift from one equilibrium to another, based on their opinion of the country’s prospects.2Short-term lenders often refuse to refinance the old debt when developing countries need it.5.危机的全球蔓延Global Contagion1The crisis has spillover effects in another countries.2Herding behavior will occur when foreign lenders can not obtain enough information.3The developing countries have the similar problem such as fixed rate, weak banking systems and domestic lending booms.5 解决方法Resolving Financial Crises1.援救计划Rescue PackagesThey are packages of loan commitments to assist the country in getting through the crisis.功能:1Provide for payment; 2Restore investor confidence; 3Limit contagion effects; 4Adjust economic policy消极影响:1The actual effects is limited to cushion a full financial crisis. 2The rescue package can create moral hazard for lenders.2.债务重构Debt Restructuring两种方式:1 债务延期Debt rescheduling: pushes the repayments schedule further into the future. 2债务削减Debt reduction: lowers the amount of debt6 减少危机发生的频率Reducing The Frequency of Financial Crises1.Pursue sound macroeconomic policies2.Provide sufficient information about it reserve and debt.3.Avoid short-term capital inflows4.Bank Regulation and Supervision:Better banks’ accounting; Disclose information publicly; Identify weak banks timely; Improve bank system before financial liberalization; Reduce direct intervention5.Capital Controls(有争议):Limit capital outflows; Tax restriction to international borrowing; Capital controls can be second-best policy if the bank regulation can not be improved immediatelyC8开放的宏观经济的运行How Does the Open Macroeconomy Work?1国民经济运行状况The performance of national economy两类基本目标衡量是否健康:1充分就业和物价稳定The first category involves two domestic goals: employment and price stability. 2外部均衡external balance :The achievement of a reasonable and sustainable balance of payments with the rest of the world.。