2015年1月21日普氏能源日报

COVERING THE RAW MATERIALS INPUTS TO STEELMAKINGVolume 9 / Issue 14 / January 21, 2015/PlattsSBBSteelClose/MidpointChange % Chg IODEX Iron ore fines 62% Fe ($/dmt)CFR North China65.50-66.5066.00-1.25-1.86Please see Platts complete iron price/netbacks table, p.3Coking coal, premium low vol ($/mt)FOB Australia 105.90 105.90 -0.45 -0.42CFR China114.00 114.00 -0.50 -0.44Please see full metallurgical coal price/freight table, p.4Ferrous scrapHMS CFR Turkey, $/mt 308.00-310.00 309.00 -1.00 -0.32HMS FOB Rotterdam, $/mt 284.00-288.00 286.00 -1.00 -0.35A3, FOB Black Sea, $/mt284.00-289.00 286.50 -1.00 -0.35Shredded del Midwest US, $/lt 338.00-342.00 340.00 0.00 0.00Shredded FOB East Coast, $/mt 290.00-295.00 292.50 -5.00 -1.68HMS del dock East Coast, $/lt 250.00-255.00 252.50 0.00 0.00HMS FAS US West Coast, $/mt230.00-235.00232.50-5.00-2.11Singapore —Spot iron ore prices declined again Wednesday, as Chinese mills shunned a variety of offers. Platts 62% Fe IODEX fell $1.25/dry mt to $66/dmt CFR North China.A number of offers were met with silence, or bids deemed too low to meet. “Yesterday and today, all buyers aren’t very anxious about committing to spot cargoes now,” a Hong Kong-based trader said. “We’re trying to sell our cargoes but it’s not that easy to. A lot of mills are not eager to buy more iron ore as their profit margins are being threatened because steel hasn’t been doing well. The seasonal factor is huge.”The cold weather in China impedes pro-ductivity in the construction and infrastructure sectors, both major consumers of steel.Mills spurn iron ore offers and prices fallA procurement source at a Hebei-based mill said some steelmakers were going to start cutting crude steel production by bring-ing forward maintenance at their blast fur-naces. “Steel margins are so weak now in any case, so mills are thinking they might as well let this coincide with their mainte-nance periods. We are hearing of this going on in the Tangshan region [in Hebei], as well as in Shandong.”This would further constrain ore demand, the source said.Vale tender IOCJ finesMeanwhile, Brazilian miner Vale sold at $75.11/dmt 64.96% Fe Iron Ore Carajas(continued on page 2)fines through a spot tender Wednesday, sources invited to participate in the tender said. The 108,357-mt shipment will pass Singapore February 5, and contains 1.52% alumina, 2.81% silica, 0.038% phospho-rus, 0.37% manganese, 2% loss on igni-tion and 8.3% moisture.The IOCJ fines trade normalized to $75.09/dmt CFR North China against the Platts 65% Fe specifications. The 65% Fe assessment fell $2/dmt on the day to $75/dmt CFR North China, dropping more than the lower grades.This 108,357 mt shipment was part of an original 195,461 mt shipment of IOCJ fines the miner eventually split into two to offer separately after failing to find bids it considered high enough on January 12. Vale subsequently sold 87,104 mt on January 16 at $78.15/dmt CFR China through a spot tender to Chinese trading house SPL, sources said.Meanwhile, rebar futures edged lower Wednesday, with the most liquid May contract in Shanghai last trading at Yuan 2,472/mt ($403.50/mt), down Yuan 16/mt from Tuesday, and settling at Yuan 2,493/mt, down Yuan 9/mt day on day. The spot price of square billet in Tangshan remained unchanged at Yuan 2,000/mt ($326.50/mt) ex-stock Tangshan.Iron ore futures on the DalianCommodity Exchange fell Wednesday, with the most actively traded May contract in Dalian last trading at Yuan 486/dmtMills spurn iron ore offers and prices fall ... from page 1Weekly Manganese Ore ($/dmtu)$/dmtu Weekly changeAssessed 44% Manganese Ore CIF Tianjin 4.05 -0.16 16-Jan-1537% Manganese Ore CIF Tianjin3.60-0.1016-Jan-15One major US miner said high voldemand was very good. “For HVA, demand is around twice the supply they have to sell and for HVB, around 1.5 times.”Regarding the potential effect of low Australian prices on US coal, he said pric-es were “sticky,” and Asian prices could move $4-5/mt before buyers tweak their blend requirements. He said it was only when miners offer direct discounts on material that buyers tend to switch.The Platts US low-vol hard coking coal assessment, based on good-quality CAPP low-vol specified on 58% CSR and 1.5% MMR at 19% VM, stayed flat at $110.50/mt FOB US East Coast. The US high-vol A assessment was stable at $110.75/mt and US high-vol B based on 34% VM coal with 25,000 ddpm held at $105.50/mt FOB USEC.Colombian producers were back in the market, with a report of a 400,000 mt con-tract deal to Brazil loading February to December having taken place; no indica-($79.25/dmt), down Yuan 16/dmt from Tuesday, and settling at Yuan 496/dmt, down Yuan 8/dmt on day.Lump premium holds upDespite the apparent weakness in demand for fines cargoes, lump premi-ums were holding steady. Plattsassessed the weekly spot lump premium at $0.325/dmt unit, unchanged from the previous week. The premium is normal-ized to a CFR basis and expressed over the IODEX fines assessment.Market participants said lump demand was still holding up, unlike the waning appe-tite end-users in China were displaying for fines material. “This is totally seasonal,” a Hebei-based steelmaker said. “The cold weather makes it hard for domestic concen-trate production levels to recover so more mills have to turn to lump.” Lump and pellet cargoes are mutual substitutes, with the lat-ter processed through pelletization from concentrate material.Australian miner Rio Tinto offered at $89/dmt CFR Qingdao 62 Fe Pilbara Blend lump on COREX, sources notified by the miner said. The 70,000 mt cargo will load over February 8-17. Sources with access to the COREX platform said there were no bids for the shipment.Placing the PB lump offer over the 62% Fe IODEX assessment of $66/dmt CFR North China for the day yielded a lump premium of $0.37/dmt unit on a CFR basis, a level sources said was too high to be repeatable.— Celestyn WongCoking coal market...from page 1Atlantic pellet premium estimated contract price$/dmt Change Jan32.50-4.00Platts daily metallurgical coal assessments, January 21Asia-Pacific coking coal ($/mt) FOB CFR CFR Change Australia China India Australia China India HCC Peak Downs Region 106.90 115.00 116.30 -0.45 -0.50 -0.55Premium Low Vol 105.90 114.00 115.30 -0.45 -0.50 -0.55HCC 64 Mid Vol 98.65 106.75 108.05 0.05 0.00 -0.05Low Vol PCI 93.40 101.50 102.80 0.05 0.00 -0.05Low Vol 12 Ash PCI 87.40 95.50 96.80 1.30 1.25 1.20Semi Soft 79.15 87.25 88.55 0.05 0.00 -0.05Met Coke - - 196.00 - - 0.00North China prompt port stock prices Ex-stock Jingtang CFR Jingtang(Yuan/mt, incl VAT) equivalent ($/mt)**Premium Low Vol* 905.00 117.83HCC 64 Mid Vol* 850.00 110.37*weekly (assessed January 16), 20-day delivery from date.**ex-stock price, net of port charges, import tax and VAT Atlantic coking coal ($/mt)FOB US East Coast Change VM Ash SLow Vol HCC 110.50 0.00 19% 8% 0.80%High Vol A 110.75 0.00 32% 7% 0.85%High Vol B 105.50 0.00 34% 8% 0.95%Detailed methodology and specifications are found here:/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/metcoalmethod.pdfDry bulk freight assessments Route Vessel Class Freight rate ($/mt) Change Australia-C hina C apesize 5.80 0.45Australia-China Panamax 8.10 -0.05Australia-India Panamax 9.40 -0.10USE C -C hina Panamax 23.25 -0.25USE C -India Panamax 21.25 -0.25USE C -Rotterdam Panamax 7.80 0.00USE C -Brazil Panamax 8.00 0.00East Australia: basis Hay Point port. USEC: basis Hampton Roads. See methodology for further details.HCC assessed specifications CSR VM Ash S P TM Fluidity Premium Low Vol 71% 21.5% 9.3% 0.50% 0.045% 9.7% 500HCC Peak Downs Region 74% 20.7% 10.5% 0.60% 0.030% 9.5% 400HCC 64 Mid Vol 64% 25.5% 9.0% 0.60% 0.050% 9.5% 1,700Penalties & Premia: Differentials ($/mt) Within % of Premium Low Vol FOB Net valueMin-Max Australia assessment price ($/mt)Per 1% CSR 60-71% 0.50% 0.53Per 1% VM (air dried) 18-27% 0.50% 0.53Per 1% TM (as received) 8-11% 1.00% 1.06Per 1% Ash (air dried) 7-10.5% 1.25% 1.32Per 0.1%S (air dried) 0.3-1% 1.00%1.06US low-vol HCC Penalties & Premia; Differentials ($/mt) Within % of US low-vol HCC FOB Net value Min-Max USEC assessment price ($/mt)Per 1% CSR 50-64% 0.50% 0.55 40-49% 0.50% 0.55Per 0.1% S 0.70-1.05% 0.75% 0.83 1.06-1.25% 1.00% 1.11Per 1% TM (as received) 6.0-11.0% 1.00% 1.11Per 1% Ash 5.0-10.0% 1.25%1.38Source: PlattsThe assessed price of HCC Peak Downs® originates with Platts and is based on price information for a range of HCCs with a CSR> 67% normalized to the standard of HCC Peak Downs® (CSR 74%). Peak Downs® is a registered trade mark of BM Alliance Coal Operations Pty Limited “BMA”. This price assessment is not affiliated with or sponsored by BMA in any way.tions on price were given. Another Colombian deal was reported into the Mediterranean, this time on a spot basis, for delivery end-January.— David BraidSpate of trading in AsiaPacific met coal marketSingapore —The seaborne metallurgi-cal coal market saw a sudden burst of spot trading Wednesday, suggesting a softening of prices.There was brisk trading in the top-tier segment with a spot cargo of Australian premium low-vol hard coking coal done near parity to Platts Premium Low VolHCC CFR China. This was for a 90,000 mt cargo shipped in a Capesize with amid-February laycan. The remaining72,000 mt was for a semi-premiumblended HCC with 66-70% CSR at 96% ofPlatts Premium Low Vol HCC CFR China.The prices were done using the averageof February assessments.There was also another spot dealdone for Australian premium low-vol HCCwith 69-72% CSR at $113/mt CFR China.This was for a half-Capesize cargo to beco-loaded end-January with another cargo.Since this falls out of the Platts stipulated 7-45 days loading window, it was notused directly in the assessment process.The other cargo was of Australian 57-59%CSR coking coal which was traded at$105/mt CFR China.The last coking coal trade was forsemi-premium blended HCC with 66-70% CSR done at around $111/mt CFR China. This was also for a half-Capesizecargo for end-January laycan. Similarly, since the laycan fell out of Platts’ assessment window, it was not used inMetallurgical Coke 62% CSR$/mt Change % Chg CFR India196.00 0.00 0.00FOB North China180.000.00 0.00 Yuan/mt DDP North China (weekly) 1110.000.000.00IODEX 62% Fe CFR North China OTC swaps assessment, January 21switchIODEX 62% $/dmt Change % Chg TSI 62Feb 15 66.500 -1.500 -2.21 0.250Mar 15 65.750 -1.500 -2.23 0.250Apr 15 64.750 -1.750 -2.63 0.250Q2 2015 64.250 -1.750 -2.65 0.250Q3 2015 62.600 -1.750 -2.72 0.350Q4 201562.350 -1.750 -2.73 0.350Calendar 201661.750-1.750 -2.76 0.300Detailed methodology and specifications are found here: /IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/ironore.pdfCoking coal swaps assessment, January 21$/mt Change % Chg Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australia Feb 15 105.000 -1.25 -1.18Mar 15 106.000 -0.50 -0.47Apr 15 106.500 -0.25 -0.25Q2 2015 107.000 -0.50 -0.47Q3 2015 107.250 -0.50 -0.46Q4 2015 107.500 -0.50 -0.502016109.250-0.50-0.46Wednesday’s assessment.The trades occurred in both North and South China, which suggested the pick-up in activity was not restricted to any region-al patterns.One of the buyers said the decision to procure had little to do with improved demand, but instead he needed to push forward his purchases due to the two-week delays caused by the quality tests. Hence, the source had to start buying now for January laycan cargoes in order to be able to use the material in March.Another trading source said these trades reflected signs of bargain hunting as some steelmakers took advantage of the recent slide in coking coal prices to start stocking up for the Lunar New Year break in February. “Sellers have very little bargaining power now when they are fight-ing to sell their cargoes before the mar-ket sinks even lower,” a Shanghai-based trader said.Tangshan mills take BFs downMeanwhile, in Tangshan, several mills were heard to have put their blast furnaces under maintenance for around one-two months. The reasons were mixed.One source said it was a planned maintenance, while another said closing the furnace now was deliberate since it coincided with a steel market which has been faring poorly since January. A third Tangshan steelmaker said that his mainte-nance on a 450 cubic meter blast furnace was due to recent environmental restric-tions, which clamped down on small facili-ties that are energy-intensive and polluting. The repair works will last no more than a month, said the source.At least 11 plants in Tangshan were affected with the smallest being a 450 cu mfurnace and biggest a 1,080 cu m furnace.Putting furnaces under maintenance would lead to a drop in demand for steel-making raw materials, such as coking coal and coke, one market participant said, and this would further pressure pric-es. One Tangshan coke-maker said his plant was already cutting down on produc-tion in order to prevent a further slide in domestic coke prices.PCI demand firmIn the PCI segment, a deal was heard done Tuesday for Australian mid-vol PCI with above 11% ash, for mid-February lay-can, at slightly above $95/mt CFR China.Offers were still scarce in China as pro-ducers continued to push available spot shipments to other markets, where prices were higher.Several end-users said it was tough to find Australian mid-tier PCI with some CSN in the domestic market and hence they would need to procure imported materials.Meanwhile, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued notices warning that parts of Central Queensland — the coun-try’s main met coal producing territory — could face damaging wind, heavy rain and flooding till Thursday. The bureau forecast rainfall of 100-150 mm for regions in Bowen and Mackay.Officials at Dalrymple Bay Coal NEWS FEATURETerminal, Hay Point Coal Terminal and Abott Point Port said current port opera-tions were running smoothly, but they would continue to monitor the situation.— Kenneth Foo with Edwin Yeo and Julien HallScrap marketTurkish ferrous scrapmarket shows signs of lifeLiverpool —There were signs of activity in Turkey’s torpid scrap market Wednesday, according to sources.A European publicly listed company was understood to have sold a cargo con-taining 30,000 mt of shredded scrap and 10,000 mt of heavy melting scrap I/II (80:20) at $315/mt and $310/mt, respectively, for first half of February loading from Houston.One source said this was the first deepsea US export cargo the company had sold — while American sources also expressed surprise — but the seller did not respond to requests for comment. The trade could not be confirmed with the reported buyer or seller, but it was widely acknowledged throughout the market.Other merchants selling ex-Houston typically receive a premium — around 1% — above the price of US East Coast load-ings because of the quality of their mate-rial, though it was unclear if this was the case in the trade. “I imagine it is good quality material, given all the offshore industry they have,” a Scandinavian mer-chant said.“The market is below $310/mt CFR, you cannot get those prices today,” he added, suggesting premium 80:20 was trading at $305-307/mt CFR. TheScandinavian merchant said the supplier in question entered the market towards the end of last week, when pricing was agreed, but the deal was only finalized Wednesday.A Turkish agent pegged the value of 80:20 at $310/mt CFR, but said buyers were pushing for cheaper offers. Mills have absented themselves from the market of late in a bid to push prices lower.Demand for Turkish steel exports remained tepid Wednesday, and under pressure from competitive Chinese mate-rial. Turkish mills themselves were also afforded the option of competitive billet. A trader with a large corporation said Chinese “square bar” was available at $395/mt CFR into Iskenderun. In compar-ison, Platts Black Sea billet assessment fell $2/mt to $393/mt FOB Wednesday. However, Chinese lead times are long. The trader said the earliest shipmentSteel Mill Economics: Global Spreads, January 21, 2015Change % change China Flat Steel Spread (CFSS using IODEX)* 280.46 $/mt -8.11 -2.81China Flat Steel Spread (CFSS using TSI)* 279.66 $/mt -8.67 -3.01China Long Steel Spread (CLSS using IODEX) 207.01 $/mt 0.93 0.45China Long Steel Spread (CLSS using TSI) 206.21 $/mt 0.37 0.18China Hot Metal Spread (CHMS using IODEX)* 243.73 $/mt -3.59 -1.45China Hot Metal Spread (CHMS using TSI)* 242.93 $/mt -4.15 -1.68China Coking Margin (CCM)** 260.00 RMB/mt 0.00 0.00China Billet-Rebar Spread (CBRS) 275.00 RMB/mt -5.00 -1.79Turkey Scrap-Rebar Spread (TSRS: Platts) 181.00 $/mt 1.00 0.56Turkey Scrap-Rebar Spread (TSRS: TSI) 178.00 $/mt 2.00 1.14Turkey Scrap-Black Sea Billet Spread (TSBS: Platts) 84.00 $/mt -1.00 -1.18Turkey Scrap-Black Sea Billet Spread (TSBS: TSI) 81.00 $/mt 0.00 0.00US Scrap-HRC Spread (US SHRC) 261.45 $/st 0.00 0.00US Scrap-HRC Futures Spread (US SHRCF) 281.45 $/st -5.00 -1.75US Scrap-Rebar Spread (US SRS) 301.45 $/st 0.000.00*Weekly, assessed on Mondays. **Weekly, assessed on Fridays.For spreads calculation and assessment methodology, please go to:/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/steel.pdfavailable was March, with a sailing time of around a month.Given the above trade and indications, Platts assessment of premium HMS I/II 80:20 imported into Turkey dipped $1/mt to $309/mt CFR.— Colin RichardsonUS ferrous scrap exportprices to Taiwan still slidingPittsburgh —US containerized scrap export prices to Taiwan retreated for the third consecutive week on softer demand and weak regional steel market funda-mentals. Most volume was transacted Wednesday in the range of $253-255/mt CFR Taiwan. The prices were down from sales late last week in the range of $257-260/mt.On Tuesday, a Taiwanese mill booked 6,000 mt of containerized heavy melting scrap from a US supplier at $253/mt CFR Turkey 80:20 basis. No bids were heard from the mill on Wednesday and market sources anticipated the nextround of bids from regional mills to come in around $250/mt.The Platts daily assessment of US West Coast containerized HMS 80:20 fell$5/mt Wednesday to $230-235/mt FASPort of Los Angeles.Taiwanese demand for US scrap was further reduced this week by the contin-ued offers of Japanese material.Japanese-origin H1/H2 was heard availa-ble around $270/mt CFR Taiwan, down $5/mt from last week.No bulk scrap bookings were heard this week from regional mills.— Nicholas Tolomeowith Anna Low in SingaporeDongfang Special Steel cuts scrap buying priceSingapore —China’s ChangzhouDongfang Special Steel, a medium-sized mill in the eastern province of Jiangsu, cut its scrap buying price by Yuan 30/mt ($5) to Yuan 1,750/mt, a company source said Wednesday. This is the first time it has reduced prices since a Yuan 110/mt cut in late December.Dongfang will pay Yuan 1,750/mt, including VAT, for heavy melting scrap of 6 mm and above thickness, delivered to Changzhou.The mill had been keeping pricesunchanged to replenish stocks despite oth-ers in the Yangtze River Delta loweringcosts. However, it chose to cut prices as neighboring small induction furnaces also pared back prices, said the source.Maanshan Iron & Steel, in Anhui province, recently lowered its scrap buy-ing price by Yuan 20/mt to Yuan 1,900/mt, including VAT, for plate cut-offs at least 6 mm thick delivered to Maanshan, said sources.Jiangsu Shagang Group, the largest scrap consumer and private mill in thePlatts steel industry assessments, January 21Close/MidpointChange% ChgAsiaHot-rolled coil $/mtFOB Shanghai*430.00-435.00432.50 -12.50 -2.81Reinforcing bar $/mt FOB China* 371.00-375.00 373.00-14.50-3.74* Assessed January 15, 2015EuropeHot-rolled coil Eur/mtEx-works, Ruhr 405.00-410.00 407.50 0.00 0.00CIF Antwerp 390.00-400.00 395.00 0.00 0.00DDP NW Europe(Accessible to SBB Briefing subscribers at )$/mt FOB Black Sea 425.00-430.00 427.50 0.00 0.00Plate Eur/mt Ex-works, Ruhr 495.00-505.00 500.00 0.00 0.00CIF Antwerp 415.00-425.00 420.00 0.00 0.00Reinforcing bar Eur/mtEx-works, NW Eur420.00-430.00425.00 0.00 0.00 $/mt FOB basis Turkey 488.00-492.00 490.00 0.00 0.00Billet $/mt FOB Black Sea 393.00 393.00-2.00-0.51North America Hot-rolled coil $/stEx-works, Indiana 560.00-570.00 565.00 0.00 0.00CIF, Houston510.00-530.00520.00 0.00 0.00Plate $/st Ex-works, US SE 730.00-740.00 735.00 -10.00 -1.34CIF, Houston 650.00-670.00 660.00 0.00 0.00Reinforcing bar $/stEx-works, US SE 595.00-615.00 605.00 0.00 0.00CIF, Houston475.00-485.00480.000.000.00Europe and US cold-rolled coil assessments, January 21Eur/mt Close/Midpoint Change% Chg Ex-works, Ruhr 480.00-490.00 485.00 0.00 0.00CIF Antwerp 450.00-460.00 455.00 0.00 0.00DDP NW Europe(Accessible to SBB Briefing subscribers at )$/mt FOB Black Sea 510.00-520.00 515.00 0.00 0.00 $/st Ex-works, Indiana 690.00-710.00 700.00 0.00 0.00CIF, Houston 560.00-580.00570.000.000.00Jiangsu province, kept its buying price unchanged, after cutting it by Yuan 20/mt last Friday. Changzhou-based Zenith Steel and Yonggang Group have stopped buying scrap altogether, said market sources.— Lucy TangFerroalloys marketMolybdenum oxide prices fall, buyers shy awayLondon —Molybdenum oxide prices continued to slide Wednesday as lower offer and aggressive bids failed to turn into deals.Offers in Asia and Europe were heard at $9.05/lb from producers and traders. One European trader, who had also received an offer at $9.05/lb, saidalthough he had no interest in purchasing at this level, “I’d sell at $9.05/lb if I could find a buyer.”A second European trader said the few inquiries he had received over the day were theoretical rather than serious buying interest. “People call and say they would buy at $9/lb if they were going to buy,” the trader said, adding sentiment was negative.Producer sources said they hadreceived a couple of inquiries on the day, which they did not consider serious indica-tions of buying interest. “If somebodywants to sell something today they have to offer below $9/lb,” one producer said, not-ing the lack of activity in the market.European market participants attribut-ed the fall in prices to a lack of buying interest from major mills. “Nothing is hap-pening and it’s making people nervous. None of the big boys have come out for tenders,” the first European trader said.In Asia, a South Korean steelmaker issued a buy tender for 80 mt of molybde-num products to close Thursday and anoth-er buy tender for a term supply contract to close on Friday.Sources said this had triggered more interest in oxide powder with one South Korean buyer reporting he was looking toclose deals at around $9.05/lb CIF Busan. A second South Korean playersaid he had received an offer at $9.08/lb and was considering going into the market as a buyer. “The market is on the down-trend. I’m wondering what is the good price to bid,” he said.Other sources said they would look to gather more offers before placing firm bids.The Platts daily dealer oxide assess-ment fell to $9.05-9.10/lb from $9.08-9.17/lb, while the daily European ferromo-lybdenum assessment fell to $22.65-22.90/lb from $22.90-23.10/kg.A tender from a German mill was closed at Eur19.40/kg, according to mar-ket sources, although this was not con-firmed. A third European trader said he offered around 30 cents higher and was ranked 17. “There’s nothing to do and when there is something it’s super aggres-sive,” he said.Other said they had not received any inquiries for ferromolybdenum from the trade or consumers. “People wouldn’t even buy at $22.50/kg,” the first European trader said. “They just don’t need material.”— Jitendra Gillwith Mayumi Watanabe in Tokyoand Hongmei Li in Singapore China FeCr spot pricesrise on tighter supplySingapore—The domestic spot price of 50% Cr Chinese high-carbon ferrochrome was assessed at Yuan 6,400-6,500/mt (equivalent to 78-79 cents/lb) Wednesday, including 17% VAT and delivery, up from Yuan 6,350-6,500/mt a week ago amid supply tightness.Some offers were heard as high as Yuan 6,700-7,000/mt this week for deliv-ery to various regions, though sources said such prices were not tradeable.Most pegged the current tradable price at Yuan 6,400-6,500/mt. A Beijing-based trader said Yuan 6,600/mt was tradeable in southern China, while a Beijing-based market observer said some Inner Mongolia producers in the north were offering at Yuan 6,300/mt ex-works. Both price indications were not taken into consideration for the assessment, as no other sources have indicated prices as low or high.“Supply to the big mills under monthly contracts is as per normal. But if you’re looking to buy 500 mt or 1,000 mt in the spot market now, material is hard to get and offer prices are very high,” said an official with a central China mill. Spot sup-ply was tight as ferrochrome suppliers were focused on covering term contracts, and also amid production cuts and stop-pages in southern China, said sources.Views on the direction of major stain-less steelmakers’ February purchase pric-es turned mixed this week. Some industryparticipants said they did not rule outprice increases for February deliveries dueto the spot supply tightness. But therewere still others who expect February pric-es to be rolled over from January, or evenlowered because of a weak stainlesssteel market. This was slightly in contrastwith last week, when most predicted rollo-vers or cuts for February prices.The country’s largest stainless steel-makers were expected to settle Februarydelivery prices with ferrochrome suppliersaround end-January.— Vivian TeoAsiaS&P cuts metals priceforecasts; iron ore in focusLondon—Ratings agency Standard &Poor’s has made “significant” downwardrevisions to its metals price forecast for2015-2017, with iron ore sharply lower.S&P, like Platts, is a unit of McGrawHill Financial. “We are significantly lower-ing our price assumptions for key com-modities, notably iron ore and copper.We believe this could result in some neg-ative rating actions and outlook changesover the next week or two, as we reviewour portfolio of credits,” the agency saidlate Tuesday.Its lower assumptions for most industri-al metals “reflect the effects of weaker sup-ply-demand balances; but also lower produc-tion costs, including substantial changes inforeign exchange rates,” it added.The most significant change in S&P’sassumptions is a further 20% cut in itsiron ore price through 2016. The agency isnow forecasting prices of $65/mt for 2015and 2016, rising to $70/mt in 2017; lastOctober it was assuming a price of $85/mt for 2015 and 2016.The Platts IODEX daily 62% iron orefines assessment was $66/dmt CFR NorthChina Tuesday, down from $78.75/dmt atthe beginning of Q4 2014.“At our assumed price of $65/mt, weexpect weak credit measures to persistuntil 2017 in the absence of sharp pro-duction curtailments,” S&P said, adding:“The downward revision in our iron oreprice assumptions is the third suchadjustment in the past 12 months;assumed prices in early 2014 were morethan $100/mt.”While the recent rapid decline in ironore prices has forced some high-cost pro-ducers to curtail production, “we believethis will be offset by sizable new supplyfrom major iron ore producers,” S&P said,estimating there will be about 100 millionmt of seaborne supply coming to the mar-ket in 2015. “This, together with softerdemand growth from China, will limit anymeaningful and sustainable recovery iniron ore prices in the next two years,” theagency said.Market equilibrium might only improveif the market finally absorbs this new sup-ply, S&P said, adding: “We believe thatthis will likely occur in 2017, driving pricesup that year.” Lower production costs fromthe rapid decline in freight rates, diesel。