太阳能科技英文课件PhotovoltaicSolarEnergy
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• As intermittent resources, solar and wind raise issues.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Solar Cells Background
• 1839 - French physicist A. E. Becquerel first recognized the photovoltaic effect.
Trend Analysis and Extrapolation
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• A Method Everyone Uses • Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based
radiation at the upper atmosphere. Approximately 30% is reflected back to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses. • Earth's land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and this raises their temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land masses keeps the surface at an average temperature of 14 °C. • By photosynthesis green plants convert solar energy into chemical energy, which produces food, wood and the biomass from which fossil fuels are derived.
• Solar Cells
– Market size – Market share – Sales – Units – Power produced – Cost per power delivered
Agenda
• The Sun • Solar Cells
– Background – How they work – Types
• 1958 - First spacecraft to use solar panels was US satellite Vanguard 1
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
PV Solar for Electricity
Photovoltaics
• For the 2 billion people without access to electricity, it would be cheaper to install solar panels than to extend the electrical grid. (The Fund for Renewable Energy Everywhere)
Yearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption
• The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) (1018 joules) per year. (70% of incoming sunlight) (1 Joule = energy required to heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1˚ C)
on historical data. • Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an
emerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the world around us. • Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the trend forward.
• You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes continue indefinitely?
• Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will continue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to begin trying to understand the future.
and what its implications might be. • You could first look at historical data
crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• A one kilowatt PV system* each month:
– prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined – prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the atmosphere – keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed – keeps NO and SO2 from being released into the environment
• Are there upper limits to the trend?
• What other forces may affect the trend?
• At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather than objective extrapolation of historical data.
• 1954 - Bell Laboratories, experimenting with semiconductors, accidentally found that silicon doped with certain impurities was very sensitive to light. DaryBaidu Nhomakorabea Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson, invented the first practical device for converting sunlight into useful electrical power. Resulted in the production of the first practical solar cells with a sunlight energy conversion efficiency of around 6%.
• Photo+voltaic = convert light to electricity
• 1883 - first solar cell built, by Charles Fritts, coated semiconductor selenium with an extremely thin layer of gold to form the junctions.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Breakdown of incoming solar energy
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg
Energy from the Sun
• It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up with absurd results.
crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trends to Analyze in This Talk
• Markets • Costs • Countries • Companies • Questions
Now on with the show
Energy from the Sun
• About half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earth's surface. • The Earth receives 174 petawatts (PW) (1015 watts) of incoming solar
• Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass.
• The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the planet is so vast that in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from all of the Earth's non-renewable resources of coal, oil, natural gas, and mined uranium combined.
• Providing power for villages in developing countries is a fast-growing market for photovoltaics. The United Nations estimates that more than 2 million villages worldwide are without electric power for water supply, refrigeration, lighting, and other basic needs, and the cost of extending the utility grids is prohibitive, $23,000 to $46,000 per kilometer in 1988.
• Primary energy use (2019) 487 EJ (0.0126%)
• Electricity (2019) 56.7 EJ (0.0015%) Therefore a good target
• 2019, more energy in one hour than the world used in the year.
Photovoltaic Solar Energy Futures
Presented to the Minnesota Futurists
16 May 2009 Dick Saunders and David Keenan
But first a word from our sponsor
The Futurist Tool of the day
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Solar Cells Background
• 1839 - French physicist A. E. Becquerel first recognized the photovoltaic effect.
Trend Analysis and Extrapolation
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• A Method Everyone Uses • Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based
radiation at the upper atmosphere. Approximately 30% is reflected back to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses. • Earth's land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and this raises their temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land masses keeps the surface at an average temperature of 14 °C. • By photosynthesis green plants convert solar energy into chemical energy, which produces food, wood and the biomass from which fossil fuels are derived.
• Solar Cells
– Market size – Market share – Sales – Units – Power produced – Cost per power delivered
Agenda
• The Sun • Solar Cells
– Background – How they work – Types
• 1958 - First spacecraft to use solar panels was US satellite Vanguard 1
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
PV Solar for Electricity
Photovoltaics
• For the 2 billion people without access to electricity, it would be cheaper to install solar panels than to extend the electrical grid. (The Fund for Renewable Energy Everywhere)
Yearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption
• The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) (1018 joules) per year. (70% of incoming sunlight) (1 Joule = energy required to heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1˚ C)
on historical data. • Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an
emerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the world around us. • Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the trend forward.
• You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes continue indefinitely?
• Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will continue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to begin trying to understand the future.
and what its implications might be. • You could first look at historical data
crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• A one kilowatt PV system* each month:
– prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined – prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the atmosphere – keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed – keeps NO and SO2 from being released into the environment
• Are there upper limits to the trend?
• What other forces may affect the trend?
• At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather than objective extrapolation of historical data.
• 1954 - Bell Laboratories, experimenting with semiconductors, accidentally found that silicon doped with certain impurities was very sensitive to light. DaryBaidu Nhomakorabea Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson, invented the first practical device for converting sunlight into useful electrical power. Resulted in the production of the first practical solar cells with a sunlight energy conversion efficiency of around 6%.
• Photo+voltaic = convert light to electricity
• 1883 - first solar cell built, by Charles Fritts, coated semiconductor selenium with an extremely thin layer of gold to form the junctions.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Breakdown of incoming solar energy
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg
Energy from the Sun
• It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up with absurd results.
crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trends to Analyze in This Talk
• Markets • Costs • Countries • Companies • Questions
Now on with the show
Energy from the Sun
• About half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earth's surface. • The Earth receives 174 petawatts (PW) (1015 watts) of incoming solar
• Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass.
• The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the planet is so vast that in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from all of the Earth's non-renewable resources of coal, oil, natural gas, and mined uranium combined.
• Providing power for villages in developing countries is a fast-growing market for photovoltaics. The United Nations estimates that more than 2 million villages worldwide are without electric power for water supply, refrigeration, lighting, and other basic needs, and the cost of extending the utility grids is prohibitive, $23,000 to $46,000 per kilometer in 1988.
• Primary energy use (2019) 487 EJ (0.0126%)
• Electricity (2019) 56.7 EJ (0.0015%) Therefore a good target
• 2019, more energy in one hour than the world used in the year.
Photovoltaic Solar Energy Futures
Presented to the Minnesota Futurists
16 May 2009 Dick Saunders and David Keenan
But first a word from our sponsor
The Futurist Tool of the day