chap07 Managerial Decision Making Process

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管理决策英文考试题库

管理决策英文考试题库# 管理决策英文考试题库一、单选题（每题2分，共20分）1. The process of selecting a course of action among several alternatives is known as:A. PlanningB. OrganizingC. Decision MakingD. Controlling2. Which of the following is not a characteristic of effective decision making?A. RationalityB. TimelinessC. FlexibilityD. Inflexibility3. A decision-making approach that considers all possible outcomes is known as:A. Intuitive decision makingB. Analytical decision makingC. Incremental decision makingD. Contingent decision making4. The concept of "bounded rationality" was introduced by:A. Henri FayolB. Max WeberC. Herbert SimonD. Peter Drucker5. In decision making, the "sunk cost fallacy" refers to the tendency to:A. Continue an endeavor based on the initial investmentB. Avoid making decisions that involve lossesC. Make decisions based on future benefits onlyD. Ignore past costs when making current decisions6. Which of the following is not a type of decision-making model?A. Classical modelB. Behavioral modelC. Economic modelD. Political model7. The "Garbage Can Model" of organizational decision making is associated with:A. James MarchB. Chester BarnardC. Henri FayolB. Peter Drucker8. A decision is considered to be a "programmed decision" when it is:A. Made by a computerB. Made frequently and follows a standard operating procedureC. Made by top managementD. Made under conditions of uncertainty9. Which of the following is not a factor that affects the decision-making process?A. The availability of informationB. The decision maker's personalityC. The organizational cultureD. The decision maker's age10. The "Prospect Theory" was developed to explain how people make decisions involving:A. Risk and uncertaintyB. Cost and benefit analysisC. Group dynamicsD. Time management二、多选题（每题3分，共15分）1. The following are steps in the rational decision-making process except:A. Identifying the problemB. Generating alternativesC. Selecting the best alternativeD. Implementing the decisionE. Reviewing the decision2. Factors that contribute to decision-making biases include:A. OverconfidenceB. GroupthinkC. Lack of informationD. Availability of resourcesE. Anchoring3. The following are types of heuristics that can affect decision making except:A. Availability heuristicB. Representative heuristicC. Sunk cost fallacyD. Confirmation biasE. Regression to the mean4. Decision-making under uncertainty can involve:A. Decision treesB. Payoff matricesC. IntuitionD. Past experienceE. Risk analysis5. The following are advantages of group decision making except:A. Diverse perspectivesB. Shared responsibilityC. Increased conformityD. Reduced risk of errorE. Greater acceptance of the decision三、简答题（每题10分，共30分）1. Explain the difference between a programmed decision and a non-programmed decision.2. What is the significance of the "bounded rationality" concept in decision making?3. Describe the "Garbage Can Model" of organizationaldecision making and its implications for management.四、案例分析题（每题15分，共30分）1. Case Study: A company is facing a decision on whether to invest in a new technology that could potentially revolutionize its industry. The technology is unproven, and the investment is substantial. Discuss the factors the company should consider when making this decision.2. Case Study: A manager is dealing with a team that consistently misses deadlines. The manager has identified several possible solutions but is unsure which one to implement. Analyze the decision-making process the manager should follow to address this issue.五、论述题（15分）Discuss the role of ethics in decision making and provide examples of how ethical considerations can influence the outcomes of business decisions.请注意，这只是一个示例题库，实际的考试内容和格式可能会有所不同。

管理学双语教学foundation of decision making

3-9
Conflict
-Opposing pressures from different sources.
Two levels of conflict ：
① individual decision makers psychological conflict
个人决策者的心理冲突 ② conflict arises between individuals or groups
- Nonprogrammed decisions
非程序化决策
New, novel, complex decisions having no proven answers .
3-11
The Stages of Decision Making
1．Identifying and Diagnosing the problem 2．Generating Alternative Solutions 3．Evaluating Alternatives 4．Making the choice 5．Implementing the Decision 6．Evaluating the Decision
3-3
Managerial Decision making
I. Characteristics and Types of Managerial Decisions 决策的类型和特点 II. The Stages of Decision Making 决策的阶段
Managerial Decision making 管理决策
3-5
Characteristics of Managerial Decisions
）
（P70
-Lack of Structure 结构欠缺 -Uncertainty and Risk 不确定性和风险 -Conflict 冲突

Decision making the essence 6

evaluation.
L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d)
Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.
The Managers as Decision Maker
• Explain why decision making is synonymous with managing.
• Describe the four decision making styles. • Discuss the twelve decision-making biases managers may
exhibit. • Describe how manager can deal with the negative effects
problems. • Discuss why decision criteria are important in the
decision-making process. • Describe how managers develop, analyze, and select
alternatives. • Explain what happens during implementation and
L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d)
Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.
The Managers as Decision Maker (cont’d)
• Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice approaches.

Decision_Making(决策)

1/15/2011
Marketing
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Select an alternative
The alternative selected is the one which performs best against the selection criteria and has the amount of risk that is acceptable. Rules to help a manager make decisions: The Minimax Rule – the alternative that guarantees a minimum gain or avoids maximum loss The Maximax Rule – the alternative with the highest possible gain, regardless of the risk The Average Rule – the alternative is in the middle between maximum gain and minimum loss
Step 6 Monitor The Results
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Step 5 Implement The Decision
Marketing
Step 4 Select the Best Alternatives
5
Decision making process
Decision making is a complex yet important responsibility of the managers.. This involves the followingfollowingIdentifying the problem Identifying the decision criteria Allocating weights to the criteria Developing alternatives Analyzing alternatives Selecting an alternative Implementation Evaluation ( fig 5.1 study guide) 1/15/2011 Marketing

罗宾斯《管理学：原理与实践》(第7版)中英文对照PPT第3章

3-10
管理者制定的决策
计划什么是组织的长期目标领导我应该如何处理员工缺乏动力的情况
采取什么战略可以最好地实现这些目标
组织的短期目标是什么
在特定情境下，什么是最有效的领导风格
某些改变将如何影响员工的工作效率
制定个体目标有多困难
组织应该有多少员工向我直接汇报
何时是激发冲突的好时机
控制组织中什么活动需要控制
• 非程序化决策 Nom programmed Decision
– 一个需要定制解决的独一无二、不会重复发生的决策 – The decisions are unique and nonrecurring
3-14
程序化决策Programmed Decision P68
• 政策 Policies
– 为重复问题制定决策而设定参数的一个普遍的指导
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问题的类型 Types of Decisions P67
• 结构性问题 Structured problems – 直观的、熟悉和易于决定的问题 – The goal of decision maker is clear, the problem familiar , and information about the problem easily defined and complete. • 非结构化问题 Ill-structured problems – 新的或是不寻常的，有关此类问题的信息是模糊的、不完全的 – They are new or unusual. Informatio about such problem is ambiguous or incomplete.
Chapter
决策基础
Foundations of Decision Making

Managerial Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Abstract —This paper focuses on managerial decision making under risk and uncertainty. Since no one, so far, has studied managers´ risk attitudes in parallel with their actual behavior when handling risky prospects the area still remains relatively murky. Interviews have been done with 12 managers in the Swedish forest industry concerning how they define risk, how they handle risk, how they make risky decisions, and how the organizational context affects the decision-making process. Problems that have been identified in this study are the lack of information and precise objective data, that risk and probability estimations made by the managers are often based on inadequate information and intuition, that no formal analysis is carried out, that no computer based decision tools are used in the decision making processes, and therefore most decisions are based on intuition and gut feeling.Index Terms —Risk taking, decision making, computer based decision tools.I. I NTRODUCTIONToday we know by experience that very few people make decisions on the basis of well-deliberated calculations, no matter if the decision situation is of private character or in a job situation. We also know that people often neglect the normative rules when making risky decisions, and that they often make decisions by intuition or on “a hunch” that seems correct. The descriptive theory gives us some explanations why people make decisions the way they actually do and why the suggested normative rules for decision-making under risk and uncertainty are not followed [1, 2]. For instance people make decisions by following well-known paths and by following well established and built in norms, see e.g. [3] and the discussion concerning Basic Underlying Assumptions . We have, in the recent past, seen an increasing interest in the interaction between normative, descriptive and prescriptive theories of decision-making (see for example [4] and [5]). In order to develop decision aids it is of great importance to know the similarities as well as the differences between the three Manunscript received February 14, 2006.A. Riabacke is with the Dept. of Information Technology and Media, MidSweden University, Sundsvall, Sweden. (phone: +46 60-148862; fax: +46 60-148830; e-mail: ari.riabacke@miun.se).theories see [6] and [7]. Furthermore, decision-making and risk taking is context dependent [8], which makes it important to study the decision-making context. The context affects the form of decision analysis in many ways and the way decisions are made [9]. “No decision takes place in vacuo: there is always a context” [10]. In other words, the structure as well as the culture of organizations must also be examined, since they both influence the decision-making processes to a great extent. With the exception of a study by [11] and [12], empirical research has not generally focused on the conceptions of risk and risk taking held by managers. Since no one, so far, has studied managers´ risk attitudes in parallel with their actual behavior when handling risky prospects, the area still remains relatively murky.II. A TTITUDES TOWARD RISKAmong others [13] and [14] state that risk means different things to different people, and that they perceive risk in different ways depending on what area they are working within. Many studies have attempted to deal with this problemand studied the role of risk in their respective fields; see for example [15] and [11]. According to [16]: “risk is a much overused word; indeed, it has been used in so many senses as to become virtually meaningless.” In addition [17] provide us with a useful definition of risk in the field of decision-making. Their definition distinguishes three types of decision-making situations. We can say that most decision-makers are in the realms of decision-making under either: (a) Certainty, where each action is known to lead invariably to a specific outcome. (b) Risk, where each action leads to one of a set of possible specific outcomes, each outcome occurring with a known probability. (c) Uncertainty, where actions may lead to a set of consequences, but where the probabilities of these outcomes are completely unknown. A risky situation is thus a situation where the outcome is unknown to the decision-maker, i.e. he/she is not sure which outcome will occur and the uncertainty may lead to erroneous choices. Rather than accepting risk, managers avoid it [18] and in the classical literature (see for example [19]) it is widely accepted that most people are risk-averse, and that risk and return arepositively related. Some studies, however, point out that managers may not necessarily believe that risk and return are Managerial Decision Making Under Risk andUncertaintyAri RiabackeIAENG International Journal of Computer Science, 32:4, IJCS_32_4_12______________________________________________________________________________________(Advance online publication: 12 November 2006)positively related [20] and in a study, made by [12], 73% of the managers believed that risk was manageable. According to [21] one of the major tenets of portfolio analysis is that risk and return are positively correlated, i.e. if a person wants a higher return, he should, on average, also take a higher risk. However, others (e.g. [22] and [23]), show that there may be a negative correlation between accounting measures of risk and return. In the study by [12], 43% of the managers felt that risk and return were related in one way or another and 48% felt that the two were not necessarily related. Several studies show that managers do not accept that the risks they face are inherent in the situation, and avoid accepting risk by considering it as subject to control [24]. Rather, they believe that using skills to control the dangers can reduce risk. In the study by [12] 73% of the managers believed that risk was manageable and saw risk as controllable. They also made a definite distinction between gambling (where the odds are exogenously determined and uncontrollable) and risk taking (where skill or information can reduce the uncertainty) (ibid., p.73).To be able to improve the managerial decision-making by providing decision makers with prescriptive decision aids we need to interview decision makers concerning their way of making decisions. In addition, we must study the organization and the decision-making context where the decision-making takes place; an aspect that none the less is often neglected. This study aims to examine how managers in the Swedish forest industry define risk, how they handle risk, how they make risky decisions and how the organizational context affects the decision-making process. So, the main problems to be examined are; how do managers make real decisions and what type of problems do they actually experience when dealing with decision situations involving risk and uncertainty?III.T HE STUDY OUTLINEThis study was carried out in two major Swedish forest companies and includes interviews with twelve managers. The research method can be characterized as descriptive and explorative. The semi-structured interviews were based on an interview protocol, and the respondents received the interview protocol in advance. The protocol served as the basis for the interviews and “probing” was used whenever it was necessary in order to gain more information from the respondents. Each interview lasted between two and three hours. The interview study is a two-stage study, the first stage consists of the interviews and the second stage consists of the questionnaire in which the managers choose from different risky prospects. In the first half of the interview study, ideas of [12] serves as a basis. The amount of money in the offered prospect varied, since the aim was to examine if the behavior of the managers changed when the sums increased. The participants in the study were not chosen at random. Instead, an effort was made to secure a broad spectrum of managers from many different spheres of activities. Since there are relatively few respondents participating in the study, the results are not generally applicable.IV.T HE STUDYA.WHAT IS RISK?When asking the managers how they defined risk, most of them distinguished between different types of risks, such as fire risk, financial risk, technical risk, commercial risk, and investment risk. They said that a risky situation is a situation where the outcome is unknown to the decision-maker, i.e. he/she is not sure which outcome will occur and the uncertainty leads to erroneous choices. When the managers were asked to describe a risky decision they had recently made, or a risky situation they had been involved in, more than half of them associated this with different kinds of investment activities and divided them into such categories as (a) investing in new machines and techniques, (b) acquisition of new companies, (c) development of new products and entering new markets. (a) They were uncertain about whether they would reach the expected production speed within the scheduled time, if they would be able to produce top quality paper, and the reliability of the new machines. One manager said, “New techniques are always riskier than old techniques. So, we must decide if we, for example, want to be first in a new market or the first with a new product, or if we should hold back for a while and enter the market as number two. Another risky area pointed out by a manager was that they were very vulnerable concerning issues related to information technology.(b) One problem that a manager did bring up is related to the acquisition of other companies. He said, “I do not think that we really are aware of how to estimate different types of risk that we need to deal with.” He also said that even though the “mathematical part” of many problems was easily solved since they have figures concerning the cash flow, the potential development and so on, they are still greatly governed by the “soft aspects” of the decision-making process. He also said that they often invest in projects that they believe will be good investments, and that they do not only focus on figures or the investment index. Three others expressed the same sentiments concerning the acquisition of new companies by saying that they sometimes even ignore the figures they have and base their decisions on their “gut reaction”.(c) One example of risk, which is difficult to estimate and predict, is when to leave an existing market. The risky element in such a case is that once you have left a market you can not return. One manager, who refers to such a case concerning entering a new market with newspaper-paper, said, “These kinds of decisions are very unreliable.” Therefore, many decisions of that type are based on subjective appraisals of the decision-makers – not on any calculations. Regarding the future interest rates risk one of them said, “We used to consult a bank and some other institutions regarding these kinds of matters, but we make the final decision by “gut feelings”, i.e., we choose the alternative that feels good.”1)Risk and return – are they related?The managers in this study were asked their opinion with regard to the following argument, “When taking larger risks there are expectations of larger returns.” Ten of them explicitly said that risk is related to profit in one way or another. Statements such as the following were made: “Higher risk must result in higher profit”, “Yes, everything is about maximizing the return, and in order to do so we must take risks all the time”, “Higher risk corresponds to higher potential profit.” and “I believe that if you are not willing to take any risk at all you will not receive a good profit either.” However, although most of them agreed with the statement that there is a relationship between risk and return, four of them said that it is important to minimize the risks and not take too great risk. Two of them also said that they were no gamblers and therefore were very careful when taking risks, which was the recurring statement during the interviews. All of them agreed to the statement that “if you don’t take risks there will be no returns.” Four of them were convinced that it was necessary to take risks almost always – “otherwise nothing will get done” as one of them pointed out. Four of the managers regarded risk and uncertainty as almost the same thing and thought that they are strongly correlated. Some statements made were: “For me there is a strong relation between risk and uncertainty, I cannot see any difference between them”, and “If you know all the necessary facts then you do not take any risk, but if you do not know all about the future, which you do not!, then you take a risk. Risk and uncertainty are thus correlated.” In the last quotation we also find a recurring statement, namely that uncertainty refers to a future state. The opinion of four of the managers was that uncertainty was the reason for the existence of risk. According to them, the level of uncertainty could in many cases be reduced if the actual case was analyzed in an orderly fashion2)Dealing with riskThe managers were asked what they did when faced with a problem that involves risk, and they had to rank the alternatives below;(a) Avoid taking risks (5,28)(b) Collect more information (1,68)(c) Check different aspects of the problem (1,86)(d) Actively work on the problem to reduce therisk (2,54)(e) Delay the decision (4,71)(f) Delegate the decision (5,50)(g) Other (specify)The responses are displayed in the right-hand column. The sum is the average of the answers (1 was the most preferred alternative and 6 was the least preferred alternative).The pattern of how they try to tackle decision problems involving risk was fairly clear. In order these were (b) collect more information, (c) check different aspects of the problem, (d) actively work on the problem and in due time (e) delay the decision. The majority of them agreed that taking risks was necessary for the organization. However, four of them stressed that they would avoid taking risks if the consequences could be “catastrophic”, i.e. if the organization could not manage the situation if it turned out wrong. An interesting statement made by several of the managers was that if the financial status of the company was poor then they would avoid all kinds of risk taking.3)Can risk be managed?When asking the managers if they thought that risk could be managed all of them said yes. They said that risk could be managed if you have correct information, sufficient knowledge about the problem, and if you are experienced in the field it concerns. Most of them, once more, emphasized the importance of alternatives (b) Collect more information, (c) Check different aspects of the problem, and (d) Actively work on the problem to reduce the risk. Five of the managers also mentioned that they use their intuition or feeling to decide what is right or wrong, in other words they make subjective estimations about future states of the world. Other ways that the managers attempted to manage the risk included:•buying insurance, thus reducing the consequences of a risk, •carrying out a pilot-study before making decisions, •using check-lists of points to take into consideration when making decisions,•“sign-away” at least a part of the risk when for example buying a new machine (i.e. let the supplier take part of the risk and make this clear in the purchase contract).The risk estimates made by the managers were often based on what they identified as experience and intuition. Only one of the managers explicitly expressed that he tried to calculate and quantify the risk.4)Is it possible to identify risk-prone and risk-aversepersons?According to five of the respondents risk-prone people are those who want to make progress and go forward and three of them also said that risk-prone people work more independently than others do. Several of the managers considered risk-prone persons as those who are willing to make a decision without having “everything” perfectly clear. Other characteristics that were identified among risk-prone individuals:•their risk behavior has more to do with their personality, and less with their background and education,•people “who are risk-prone are not afraid of making mistakes”•people higher up in the organization were more risk-prone.An interesting angle is that, even though both risk-prone and risk-averse behavior are desirable qualities in different situations, the managers thought that risk-prone behavior wassomething positive and that risk-averse behavior was something negative. For instance, one manager said that “a risk-prone person is someone who really wants to make progress and that is the kind of people companies are looking for.” Risk-averse people, on the other hand, were identified as those who would “rather be safe than sorry”, and three of the managers said that many people in the forest industry belong to this category. What do the managers think of themselves - are they risk prone or risk averse? Two of them said that they do not like risk taking, four of them said they consider themselves neither one way nor the other, and finally the remaining six stated that they like risk taking.5)Do the managers use any computer-based decision aidswhen working with risk estimations and/or decisionproblems?None of them used, or had ever used, any kind of computer-based decision-tool or program. However, after some probing it appeared that one of them sometimes did use Excel when he made some risk estimations regarding financial risks.A couple of the others said that they sometimes use Excel for modeling when doing investment calculations and also when following up as to whether investments had succeeded. Why do they not make more use of computers when making decisions and handling risk? One of the very top managers said “I have never ever, in any company, in any council or in any other situation, used any kind of computer based decision aid. I think that many people try to ´take the easy way´ and that they therefore do not spend time learning how to use such decision tools – which is a pity since I think it could be advantageous in many situations.”B.THE DECISION MAKING CONTEXTThe managers in this study were asked, “How do you perceive the structure of the organization?”(a)Mechanistic (Bureaucracy) with highly centralizeddecision-making(b)Organic (Adhocracy) with decentralized decision-making(c)OtherThe answers they gave were only in one single case just (a), (b) or (c). Several of them thought that the structure is a mixture of the alternatives offered and three of them said that it is something between (a) and (b). Three others said that it is (b) or at least on its way towards (b) and one of these three said “the decision-making becomes more and more decentralized, and there has been a lot of progress made during the past ten-years.” Half of the respondents, irrespective of whether they chose (a) or (b), had one opinion in common, namely that they agreed that decentralized decision-making was only true up to a certain level, i.e. that most of the important decisions where made higher up in the hierarchy. One manager said “the organization is organic and decentralized at the ´factory level´, but very bureaucratic above that level – which is unpleasant.” Moreover, one of the middle level managers said that “many of us are afraid of making decisions that ´daddy´ perhaps may disapprove of.” Similar “feelings” were expressed by others who said that the forest industry, by tradition, has been very hierarchical and that you must always be aware of what people above your level like or dislike. Another observation made in this study was that people at the middle management level did not, to the same extent, think that the decision-making in the organization is decentralized as those higher up in the hierarchy. Thus, we can see from this study that the managers’ answers were not unanimous and that it was not possible to say whether the studied organizations were mechanistic or organic. The organizations were rather, according to the managers, a mixture of both. It could perhaps be explained by the fact that several of the managers perceived the organizations as organic at the factory level, but on the other hand, as mechanistic at the top level.The managers were also asked to choose between two alternatives regarding the culture in the organization, concerning the level of trust in subordinates.The alternatives were:(a) Autocratic with a low level of trust in subordinates(b) Democratic with a high level of trust in subordinates(c) Other.A majority of them chose alternative (b), but once again, even those who had chosen alternative (b) said things that reinforced the feeling that trust and commission were somehow limited. A few examples of what they said are: “Relatively democratic decision-making, but the final decisions are always made higher up in the hierarchy”, “Democratic, yes, but not when it comes to the big decisions”, “The top man is the one and only one in charge.” The managers were also asked about whether they thought there were, or not, unconscious, taken-for-granted beliefs that guide the decision-makers in some way. Eight of them said that there definitely were more of unconscious and taken-for-granted beliefs that guided them when they made different kinds of decisions. Three of them made statements such as the following: “There are some patterns that implicitly guide people to act in some ways ´as it always has been done´”, “Yes, there is definitely a built-in culture that tells people what is right and what is wrong” and “I think we have quite a lot ´built into the walls´, a lot of unwritten rules that guide people in their decision-making.” Three of the other managers talked about discipline and the importance of adapting to the organizational norms. One of them said that many of the workers had become very disciplined and the reason was, according to him, that either the workers chose to “adapt the style” or leave/lose their job. He also added that “We are free, to a large extent, to perform our job as we want – as long as it fits in to the built in norms.” Several of the mangers also talked about the importance of “adapting the style”, to learn what is right and what is wrong – even though most of the rules are in unwritten form. Two of the top-level managers alsodiscussed these matters, and they agreed that it is important to employ people who possess fundamental values that will suit the business concept. Furthermore, they wanted to see employees who are willing to adapt to the style of the firm and who suit the prevailing culture. One of them also said that “People have a tendency to follow a well-worn path in the organization. Most of those who have worked in the company for a long time have adapted to the style of work and how to make decisions – stated by others who have been working there even longer.”C.HOW DO THE MANAGERS CHOSE RISKY PROSPECTS?When studying how the managers chose from the risky prospects in situations 1 – 3 (see appendix) we observed the certainty effect. We can see that the majority of them preferred alternatives that are certain in preference to alternatives that are merely probable, even though the expected value is higher in the alternative that was not certain. We can thus see that they preferred prospects that had a small variance or no variance at all. However, if the variance becomes larger in the prospects, such as from 100% to 25% in situations 2.1B and 2.2B, and from 80% to 20% in situations 2.1A and 2.1B, then they instead chose the alternative that offered the largest possible outcome. This was, however, not always true. In situations 4.1 and 5.1 we can see that if the difference in the variance was large then most of them had a tendency to choose the alternative where winning was more probable. We can, on the other hand, see in situations 4.2 and 5.2 that if the probability of winning dramatically decreases and the chance of winning is possible but no longer probable, then they chose the alternative that offered the largest gain. We can, at this stage, establish that the managers did not act in accordance with the expected utility rules.When replacing wins by losses we can observe a phenomenon called the reflection effect, i.e. that the risk aversion in the positive domain is replaced by risk seeking in the negative domain, see situations 7–9. In situation 8.1 we can for instance see that eight of the managers preferred the certain alternative (3.000.000 SEK, 100%) to the uncertain one (4.000.000 SEK, 80%). But, when looking at the loss domain, in situation 8.2, we can see that most of them were willing to accept an 80% risk of losing -4.000.000 SEK in preference to a certain loss of -3.000.000 – although situation 8.2A has a lower expected value. In situation 10 we can observe the reflection effect in a different form. In the positive domains the majority of them disregarded the fact that the probabilities are low if the possible outcome is large. In the loss domain, on the other hand, we can see that most of them chose the certain loss of -500 SEK in preference to -500.000 SEK with probability 0,001%. Finally, in situations 11 and 12 we can observe the isolation effect. The isolation effect appeared when the majority of the managers made their choices, obviously not taking into account the components that the alternatives shared, which in situation 11 is 100.000 SEK and in situation 12 is 200.000 SEK. So, even though the offered prospects are identical in final states, i.e. the expected value in all four situations is 150.000 SEK, they proved to have risk-averse tendencies for positive prospects and risk-seeking tendencies for negative prospects. The results in situations 11 and 12 also exhibited framing problems, i.e. that people may choose in opposite ways and end up with contrary results when data are presented in different, but mathematically equivalent, ways. So, what about the managers in this study – are they risk-prone or risk-averse? Half of them labeled themselves as risk takers. Only two of them said that they are risk-averse and the other four stated that they are somewhere in between. When analyzing the choices they have made among the offered prospects in the questionnaire we can, nevertheless, see that a majority prove to be risk-averse in positive domains, see e.g. the results in situations 1.1, 2.1, 3.1, 4.1, 5.1, 6.1, and 8.1. In the negative domains, on the other hand, most of the managers tend to exhibit risk-prone behavior; see e.g. situations 7-9 where the reflection effect appears. Results from the study indicate that the managers do not act in a completely rational manner, nor in accordance with the suggested normative rules.V.D ISCUSSIONOne main problem that has been identified in this study is the lack of information and precise objective data. The risk and probability estimations made by the managers are therefore often based on inadequate information and intuition. Furthermore, many of the managers said that they did not have the necessary skills to estimate different types of risks and that they therefore make their decisions based on intuition and gut feeling. Most of the managers also pointed out the lack of information as a source of risk and uncertainty. Moreover, all of them thought that risk could be managed if one has the correct information and good knowledge about the problem. Ten of them explicitly said that risk is related to profit in one way or another, and all twelve of them agreed with the statement that “if you don’t take risks there will be no returns.” The managers were also asked to choose between two alternatives about the culture in the organization, as to whether the level of trust in subordinates was low or high. Most of them did choose the alternative that expressed that the organization is organic and that the decision-making in the organization was decentralized. But, once again many of them said that the decentralized decision-making was only partly true. Most of them said that there were a lot of unwritten rules built into the culture and three of them said things such as: “there are some patterns that implicitly guide people to act in some ways - as it always has been done.” When asking the managers how they perceived the structure of the organization most of them agreed that it is a mixture of a bureaucratic and an organic organization with a mixture of centralized and decentralized decision- making. This question is crucial for many reasons since the structure sets or creates the boundaries within which people are expected to act, i.e. make their decisions.According to the managers it is relatively easy to identify whether a person is risk-prone or risk-averse. Five of them said that risk-prone persons are those who want to make progress。

principle of management——Decision Making

Table 6-4a
Decisions in the Management Functions
Leading
How do I handle employees who appear to be low in motivation? What is the most effective leadership style in a give situation? How will a specific change affect worker productivity? When is the right time to stimulate conflict?
Warranties
Support
Reliability
Repair record
Reliability
100
Manufacturer and model 85
Support
70
Repair record
25
Warranties
10
Price
20
Figure 6-1a
Development of
alternatives
REVENUES X PROBABILITY = ALTERNATIVE
Heavy snowfall $850,000
0.3
Normal snowfall 725,000
0.5
Light snowfall
350,000
0.2
$255,000 362,500 70,000
$687,500
Table 6-6
Chapter Objectives (2 of 2)
Describe the different decision-making styles Differentiate the decision conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty Identify the advantages and disadvantages of group decisions Describe four techniques for improving group decision making

管理学期末复习(中英文汇总)

第一章1.1管理者对组织很重要原因（1）在这个复杂、混乱和不确定的时代，组织需要他们的管理技能和能力（2）管理者对工作的顺利完成至关重要（3）有助于提高员工的生产率和忠诚度（4）对创造组织价值观很重要1.2管理者协调和监督其他人工作，以实现组织目标。

在传统结构的组织中，管理者可以被划分为基层、中层和高层管理者。

组织的三个特征：一个明确的目标；由人员组成；一种精细的结构1.3 广义上，管理就是管理者所从事的工作。

管理者协调和监管其他人以有效率、有效果的方式完成他们的工作或任务。

效率是以正确的方式做事；效果是做正确的事管理的四种只能：计划（定义目标、制定战略、制定计划）；组织（对工作作出安排）；领导（与其他人共事并且通过他们完成目标）；控制（对工作绩效进行监控、比较或纠正）明茨伯格的管理角色(Mintzberg’s managerial roles)包括（1）人际关系角色（Interpersonal):挂名首脑figurehead领导者leader联络者liaison，这涉及与人打交道以及其他仪式性/象征性ceremonial/symbolic的活动（2）信息传递角色informational:监听者monitor传播者dissemination发言人spokesperson，指的是收集collecting、接受receiving和传播disseminating信息；（3）决策定制者decisional：企业家entrepreneur、混乱驾驭者disturbance handler、资源配置者resource allocator和谈判者negotiator，即制定决策管理者以三种方式来影响行为：通过对行为进行直接管理；通过对采取行动的人员进行管理；通过对推动人们采取行动的信息进行管理managing information that impels people to take action。

卡茨认为，管理技能包括katz’s managerial skills：技术技能technical（与具体工作相关的知识和技术）、人际技能human skill（与他人和谐共事的能力）和概念能力conceptual（思考和表达创意的能力）。

管理即决策英文翻译

Management is Decision-MakingManagement is decision-making. When we delve into the essence of managerial roles and responsibilities, we find that decision-making is at the core of every managerial action. Good management hinges on the ability to make effective decisions that align wit h the organization’s goals and objectives.The Role of Decision-Making in ManagementDecision-making is a fundamental aspect of management. It involves selecting the best course of action from various alternatives to achieve the desired outcomes. Managers are constantly faced with decisions ranging from routine operational matters to strategic choices that can shape the future of the organization.Effective decision-making is crucial for the success of any business. It requires a systematic approach, analytical thinking, and consideration of all relevant factors. Managers must assess the risks and benefits of each option, anticipate potential outcomes, and make informed choices that maximize the organization’s chances of achieving its goals.Types of Decisions in ManagementDecisions in management can be classified into different types based on their nature and impact:1.Strategic Decisions: These decisions are long-term and high-impactchoices that define the organization’s overall direction. They involve allo cating resources, entering new markets, and setting long-term goals.2.Tactical Decisions: Tactical decisions are medium-term decisionsthat focus on implementing the strategic plans. They involve allocatingresources efficiently, coordinating activities, and ensuring day-to-dayoperations run smoothly.3.Operational Decisions: Operational decisions are short-termdecisions that deal with the daily activities of the organization. They focus on the immediate tasks and issues that need to be addressed to achieveoperational efficiency.Decision-Making ProcessThe decision-making process in management typically involves the following steps:1.Identifying the Problem: The first step is to clearly define theproblem or opportunity that requires a decision. This involves understanding the current situation, setting objectives, and identifying the factors that need to be considered.2.Gathering Information: Managers need to collect relevant data andinformation to assess the situation and evaluate the available options. This may involve market research, financial analysis, and consultation with experts.3.Analyzing Alternatives: Once the information is gathered, managersneed to analyze the potential alternatives and evaluate their pros and cons. This may involve using decision-making tools such as cost-benefit analysis, SWOT analysis, or decision trees.4.Making the Decision: Based on the analysis, managers need to makea decision by selecting the best alternative that aligns with the organization’sgoals and objectives. This decision should be well-thought-out and supported by evidence and logic.5.Implementing the Decision: After making the decision, managersneed to implement it by developing an action plan, allocating resources, andcommunicating the decision to relevant stakeholders. It is essential to monitor the implementation and adjust the plan as needed.6.Evaluating the Outcome: Finally, managers need to evaluate theoutcome of the decision to assess its effectiveness and impact on theorganization. This feedback loop helps in learning from past decisions andimproving future decision-making processes.Challenges in Decision-MakingWhile decision-making is a critical aspect of management, it is not without its challenges. Some common challenges in decision-making include:1.Limited Information: Managers often have to make decisions withincomplete or ambiguous information, which can lead to uncertainty andincreased risk.2.Biases and Subjectivity: Personal biases and subjective judgmentscan cloud the decision-making process and result in suboptimal choices.3.Time Pressure: Decisions may need to be made quickly, especially infast-paced environments, which can lead to rushed and ill-considered decisions.4.Conflicting Objectives: Different stakeholders may have competinginterests, making it challenging to find a solution that satisfies everyone.ConclusionIn conclusion, management is inherently about decision-making. Effective decision-making is a key competency that sets successful managers apart. By understanding the importance of decision-making, mastering the decision-making process, and overcoming the challenges that come with it, managers can steer their organizations towards success and achieve their goals.。

作为决策者的管理者

你的团队变得功能紊乱，你的客户正在离你而去，或者你的计划再也无法有效实施。
Every decision starts with a problem, a discrepancy between an existing and a desired condition.
每一项决策都始于一个问题，即现有状况和预期状况之间的不一致。
作为决策者的管理者
LEARNING OUTCOMES
7.1 Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process
描述决策制定过程中的八个步骤 7.2 Explain the four ways managers make decisions 解释管理者制定决策的四种方法 7.3 Classify decisions and decision-making condition 划分决策和决策条件的类型 7.4 Describe different decision-making styles and
在决策制定的第7个步骤，你将这项方案传达给那些受影响的人并获得他们的认同，从而将该项措施付诸实践。
Step 8: Evaluating Decision Effectiveness
步骤8：评估决策的效果
• The last step in decision-making process involves evaluating the outcome or result of the decision to see whether the problem was resolved。If the evaluation shows that the prooblem still exists, then the manager needs to assess what went wrong. Was the problem incorrectly defined? Were errors made when evaluating alternatives? Was the right alternative selected but poorly implemented?The answers might lead you to redo an earlier step or might even require starting the whole process over.

decision making 决策相关英文课件

Steps 2-4
Step 2: Identifying decision criteria
• Criteria relevant in making a decision
What criteria will you use to select a destination?
Step 3: Allocating weights
Decision making defined
Decision making is the process of choosing between alternatives.
Decisions are made about:
– planning , ie: objectives – organising, ie: allocation of resources – leading, ie: how to motivate individuals – controlling, ie how to measure performance
What constitutes a problem?
– you’re aware of it – you’re under pressure to act – you have the resources needed to take action
•
Be Careful:
– problem may not be obvious; you may treat symptoms; whose problem is it?
• • When the criteria identified in Step 2 does not hold equal importance Prioritise the criteria

decision making 决策相关英文课件

Type of decision • Programmed
– Decision-making by precedent – Decision is repetitive and routine – Specific approach may already exist for worked out how to handle them
Source: Robbins, S, De Cenzo, DA, Coulter, M & Woods, M 2012, Management: Essentials, Pearson, Frenchs Forest.
Decision making conditions
• Degree of certainty and uncertainty
Monitor and evaluate results
Bounded Rationality Model
Assumptions: • Decisions makers are rational within bounds of time and ability to process information • Decision makers satisfice
How well does each destination fit your decision criteria for a holiday destination?
Steps 6-8
Step 6: Selecting an alternative
• Select the alternative that generated the highest score
Step 4: Developing alternatives

管理学教程Decision-making决策(管理英语)

The nature of the problem, how frequently it arises, and the degree of uncertainty surrounding it should dictate the appropriate level of management for making the decision. Highest level ..……………..
Ⅰ. Definition for Decision
• Every organization grows, prospers, or fails as a result of decisions by its managers.
• Case-1: Nokia’s wrong decision-making
Problems that occur frequently and have fairly certain outcomes should be the concern of lower levels of management.
Middle managers in most organization concentrate mostly on programmed decisions.
Why can’t we achieve complete rationality?
• Decisions must operate for the future which involves uncertainties.
• It is difficult to recognize all the alternatives that might be followed to reach a goal. • Not all alternatives can be analyzed. • Because of the limitation of time, managers’ capacity, cannot evaluate every goal, problem and alternative.

管理系统学第9版练习题附问题详解6

管理系统学第9版练习题附问题详解6Chapter 6 Decision Making: The Essence of the Manager’s JobTRUE/FALSE QUESTIONSTHE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS1.Problem identification is purely objective.2.The second step in the decision-making process is identifying a problem.3. A decision criterion defines what is relevant in a decision.4.The fourth step of the decision-making process requires the decision maker to list viable alternativesthat could resolve the problem.5.Once the alternatives have been identified, a decision maker must analyze each one.6.The step in the decision-making process that involves choosing a best alternative is termedimplementation.THE MANAGER AS DECISION MAKER7.Making decisions is with the essence of management.8.Managerial decision making is assumed to be rational.9.One assumption of rationality is that we cannot know all of the alternatives.10.Managers tend to operate under assumptions of bounded rationality.11.Studies of the events leading up to the Challenger space shuttle disaster point to an escalation ofcommitment by decision makers.12. Managers regularly use their intuition in decision making.13.Rational analysis and intuitive decision making arecomplementary.14.Programmed decisions tend to be repetitive and routine.15.Rules and policies are basically the same.16.A policy is an explicit statement that tells a manager what he or she ought or ought not to do.17.The solution to nonprogrammed decision making relies on procedures, rules, and policies.18.Most managerial decisions in the real world are fully nonprogrammed.19.The ideal situation for making decisions is low risk.20.Risk is the condition in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likelihood of certainoutcomes.21.Risk is a situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probabilityestimates.22.People who have a low tolerance for ambiguity and are rational in their way of thinking are said tohave a directive style.23.Decision makers with an analytic style have a much lower tolerance for ambiguity than do directivetypes.24.Individuals with a conceptual style tend to be very broad in their outlook and will look at manyalternatives.25. Behavioral-style decision makers work well with others.26.Most managers have characteristics of analytic decision makers.27.According to the boxed feature, “Managing Workforce Diversity,” diverse employees tend to makedecisions faster than a homogeneous group of employees.28.The anchoring effect describes when decision makers fixate on initial information as a starting pointand then, once set, they fail to adequately adjust for subsequent information.29.The availability bias describes when decision makers try to create meaning out of random events.30. The sunk cost error is when decision makers forget that current choices cannot correct the past. DECISION MAKING FOR T ODAY’S WORLD31.Today’s business world revolves around making decisions, usually with complete or adequateinformation, and under minimal time pressure.32.Managers need to understand cultural differences to make effective decisions in today’s fast-movingworld.33.According to the boxed feature, “Focus on Leadership,” when identifying problems, managers mightbe from a culture that is focused on problem solving, or their culture might be one of situation acceptance.34.According to the boxed feature, “Focus on Leadership,” findings from studies by Geert Hofstede andfrom GLOBE researchers show that in high uncertainty avoidance countries, decision making tends to be based more on intuition than on formal analysis.35.Highly reliable organizations (HROs) are easily tricked by their success.MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONSFor each of the following choose the answer that most completely answers the question.THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS36.Decision making is typically described as ________________, which is a view that is too simplistic.a.deciding what is correctb.putting preferences on paperc.choosing among alternativesd.processing information to completion37.A series of eight steps that begins with identifying a problem and concludes with evaluating thedecision’s effectiveness i s the ________________.a.decision-making processb.managerial processc.maximin styled.bounded rationality approach38.________________ is the existence of a discrepancy between an existing and a desired state ofaffairs.a.An opportunityb. A solutionc. A weaknessd. A problem39.In identifying the problem, a manager _________________./doc/cbff6dfbbdd126fff705cc175******** 82e5918.html pares the current state of affairs with where they would like to beb.expects problems to be defined by neon lightsc.looks for discrepancies that can be postponedd.will not act when there is pressure to make a decision40.Which of the following statements is true concerning problem identification?a.Problems are generally obvious.b. A symptom and a problem are basically the same.c.Well-trained managers generally agree on what is considered a problem.d.The problem must be such that it exerts some type of pressure on the manager to act.41. What is the second step in the decision-making process?a.identifying decision criteriab.allocating weights to the criteriac.analyzing alternativesd.identifying a problem42.To determine the _____________, a manager must determine what is relevant or important toresolving the problem.a.geocentric behavior neededb.number of allowable alternativesc.weighting of decision criteriad.decision criteria43.What is the third step in the decision-making process?a.allocating weights to the criteriab.analyzing the alternativesc.selecting the best alternatived.implementing the alternative44.If all criteria in the decision making are equal, weighting the criteria ______________.a.improves decision making when large numbers of criteria are involvedb.is not neededc.produces excellent decisionsd.improves the criteria45.In allocating weights to the decision criteria, which of the following is helpful to remember?a.All weights must be the same.b.The total of the weights should sum to 1.0.c.Every factor criterion considered, regardless of its importance, must receive some weighting.d.Assign the most important criterion a score, and then assign weights against that standard.46.What is the step where a decision maker wants to be creative in coming up with possible alternative?a.allocating weights to the criteriab.analyzing alternativesc.developing alternativesd.identifying decision criteria47. When analyzing alternatives, what becomes evident?a.the strengths and weaknesses of each alternativeb.the weighting of alternativesc.the list of alternativesd.the problem48.When developing alternatives in the decision-making process, what must a manager do?a.list alternativesb.evaluate alternativesc.weight alternativesd.implement alternatives49.Selecting an alternative in the decision-making process is accomplished by __________________.a.choosing the alternative with the highest scoreb.choosing the one you like bestc.selecting the alternative that has the lowest priced.selecting the alternative that is the most reliable50.In Step 6 of the decision-making process, each alternative is evaluated by appraising it against the_____________.a.subjective goals of the decision makerb.criteriac.assessed valuesd.implementation strategy51.______________ includes conveying a decision to those affected and getting their commitment to it.a.Selecting an alternativeb.Evaluating the decision effectivenessc.Implementing the alternativesd.Analyzing alternatives52.Which of the following is important in effectively implementing the chosen alternative in thedecision-making process?a.getting upper-management supportb.double-checking your analysis for potential errorsc.allowing those impacted by the outcome to participate in the processd.ignoring criticism concerning your chosen alternative53. The final step in the decision-making process is to _______________.a.pick the criteria for the next decisionb.reevaluate the weightings of the criteria until they indicate the correct outcomec.evaluate the outcome of the decisiond.reassign the ratings on the criteria to find different outcomes54.Which of the following is important to remember in evaluating the effectiveness of the decision-making process?a.You should ignore criticism concerning the decision-making process.b.You may have to start the whole decision process over.c.You will have to restart the decision-making process if the decision is less than 50 percenteffective.d.Ninety percent of problems with decision making occur in the implementation step.THE MANAGER AS DECISION MAKER55.Managers are assumed to be ______________; they make consistent, value-maximizing choiceswithin specified constraints.a.rationalb.leaders/doc/cbff6dfbbdd126fff705cc175******** 82e5918.html anizedd.satisficers56.It is assumed that a perfectly rational decision maker ______________.a.does not follow rational assumptionsb.does not consider value maximizing as an objectivec.offers inconsistent decisionsd.would be objective and logical57.Managers can make rational decisions if _________________.a.the problem is ambiguousb.the goals are unclearc.the alternatives are limitedd.time constraints exist58. Which of the following is not a valid assumption about rationality?a.The problem is clear and unambiguous.b. A single, well-defined goal is to be achieved.c.Preferences are clear.d.Preferences are constantly changing.59.When managers circumvent the rational decision-making model and find ways to satisfice, they arefollowing the concept of _________________.a.jurisprudenceb.bounded rationalityc.least-squared exemptionsd.self-motivated decisions60.B ecause managers can’t possibly anal yze all information on all alternatives, managers______________, rather than ______________.a.maximize; satisficeb.maximize; minimizec.satisfice; minimized.satisfice; maximize61.The type of decision making in which the solution is considered “good enough” is k nown as_________________.a.intuitionb.satisfyingc.maximizingd.satisficing。