Twin peaks

Twin peaks双峰China’s steel production and consumption may soon start falling中国的钢铁生产和消费可能很快开始下降Apr 4th 2015 | SHANGHAI | From the print editionApr第四2015 |上海|来自打印版FOR three decades China has been a steelman’s paradise. Years of double-digit economic growth and relentless urbanisation gave the country an increasing appetite for the alloy. Steel went into everything, from buildings and infrastructure to cars and appliances. Consumption in China has risen at an average rate of 15% a year since the turn of the century, and at 689m tonnes last year it made up almost half of the world’s total usage.三年的中国已经是一个喜爱的天堂。

两位数的经济增长和城市化给国家多年不懈的合金增加食欲。

钢进了一切，从建筑和基础设施，汽车和家用电器。

中国的消费增长以每年15%本世纪以来的平均速率，并在总规模达6.89亿吨，去年它几乎占了世界总量的一半使用。

Alas, the ferrous fiesta may soon fade. China’s annual growth rate has slowed from double-digit figures to around 7%. The massive investments in infrastructure that the government unleashed as a stimulus response to the global financial crisis are subsiding. Property markets around the country are cooling fast, leaving developers with a nasty debt hangover.唉，黑色嘉年华会很快消失。

中国的年增长率已经从两位数下降到7%左右。

大量的基础设施投资，政府释放了在全球金融危机的刺激反应模式。

全国各地的房地产市场正在迅速降温，导致开发商令人讨厌的债务宿醉。

The upshot is that China may be close to “peak steel”. Analy sts at Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, believe that this is the year in which the country’s consumption and production will reach its apex, to decline gently thereafter (see chart). Zhang Guangning, chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, recently declared that “China’s steel production has already hit a peak.”结果是，中国可能已接近“峰钢”。

在摩根斯坦利的分析师，投资银行，认为这是在这一年里，该国的消费和生产将达到顶峰，此后平缓下降（见图表）。

张广宁，对中国钢铁工业协会主席，最近宣布，“中国的钢铁产量已经达到一个高峰。

”For the handful of big firms that produce most of the world’s iron ore,the raw material for steel, such arguments are hard to swallow. BHP Billiton, an Australian miner, insists that Chinese demand will keep growing robustly for years. Sam Walsh of Rio Tinto, a British colossus, has predicted that steel production in China will keep rising and eventually reach 1 billion tonnes a year (compared with about 823m tonnes last year). But such notions may prove to be wishful thinking. By one estimate, these and other mining firms have together splashed out $120 billion since 2011 on new iron-ore deposits.对于大公司，生产世界上的大部分铁矿石的少数，作为炼钢原料，这样的论点是难以下咽。

必和必拓，澳大利亚的矿工，强调中国的需求将保持多年强劲增长。

山姆沃尔什的力拓，英国的一个巨人，曾预测，中国钢铁产量将继续上升，最终达到1000000000吨（去年约823m吨相比）。

但这种想法可能是一厢情愿的想法。

有人估计，这些和其他矿业公司共同斥资120000000000美元收购以来，新的铁矿石2011。

In a sign of how China’s cooling d emand for steel is affecting ore miners, last month Fortescue, an Australian company, was forced to call off a $2.5 billion bond issue, having days earlier tried to raise the same amount through the loans market. CITIC, China’s largest state-run conglomerate, recently announced that its net profits fell by nearly 18% last year thanks in part to the troubled iron and steel markets. It was forced to take an impairment charge of $2.5 billion on a massive iron-ore project in Australia that has run into delays and cost overruns.在一个中国的冷却钢材需求的标志是影响矿商Fortescue，上个月，一家澳大利亚公司，被迫取消了2500000000美元的债券发行，有天早些时候试图通过提高贷款市场相同。

中信，中国最大的国有企业集团，最近宣布，它的净利润下降了近18%，去年，这部分得益于陷入困境的钢铁市场。

它是被迫采取减值费用为2500000000美元在一个巨大的铁矿石项目在澳大利亚遇到了延误和成本超支。

Aside from the risk of undermining the rationale for investments such as these, what are the potential knock-on effects of China hitting peak steel? Trade wars, for a start. Unable to peddle all of their output at home, Chinese steel producers have been exporting increasing quantities—to the consternation of producers elsewhere, who accuse them of dumping. MEPS, a consulting firm, estimates that China exported more than 90m tonnes of steel last year, which is greater than the entire output of America’s steel industry and was a rise of over 50% on the previous year. Exports are continuing to surge this year.除了破坏这些投资的理论基础是什么风险，在中国打峰钢影响的潜力呢？贸易战，一开始。

无法兜售他们所有的输出，在国内，中国钢铁生产商一直在出口数量增加到其他地方的生产者的惊愕，他指责他们倾销。

欧洲议会议员，一家咨询公司，估计中国出口超过9000万吨钢铁的最后一年，这比美国的钢铁工业的整个输出，是一个在上一年50%的增长。

出口继续激增，今年。

Western steelmakers are pressing their politicians to protect them against the waveof cheap Chinese imports. On March 25th the European Union said it would impose anti-dumping duties of up to 25.2% on various stainless-steel products from China, as well as from Taiwan, after E uropean steelmaking’s trade body, Eurofer, accused mills in both countries of unfair dumping. The next day, the bosses of America’s steel companies went to Capitol Hill to press their congressmen to take similar action. Unless China finds ways to moderate its exports (the recent elimination of an export-tax rebate on certain steel alloys may help, for example), these grumbles may end up at the World Trade Organisation.西方的钢铁企业都迫切的政治家能保护他们免受廉价中国进口商品的波。