【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件--ch26-大学课

26-5
Early Monetarist Evidence
Monetarist evidence is reduced form Timing Evidence (Friedman and Schwartz) 1. Peak in Ms growth 16 months before peak in Y on average 2. Lag is variable Criticisms: 1. Uses principle: Post hoc, ergo propter hoc 2. Principle only valid if first event is exogenous: i.e., if have
controlled experiment 3. Hypothetical example (Fig 2): Reverse causation from Y to
M and yet Ms growth leads Y
© 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.
26-6
Hypothetical Example in Which M/M leads Y
3. Can predict effects of institutional changes that change link from M to Y
Disadvantages:
1. Structural model may be wrong, negating all advantages
© 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.
E euro $
M , ir , E , NX , Y
When ir the domestic currency depreciates (see Chapter 7), that is E . This makes domestic goods relatively less expensive and NX .
26-11
Monetary Transmission Mechanisms
Other Asset Channels
Tobin’s q Channel:
q MVF RCC
where MVF = market value of firms and RCC = replacement cost of capital. If q is high, MFV is high relative to RCC, and new plant and equipment capital is cheap relative to the market value of firms. In this case, companies can issue stock and get a high price for it relative to the cost of the facilities and equipment they are buying. I because firms can buy a lot of new investment goods with only a small issue of stock.
M
iI
Y
Reduced Form Evidence
M
?
Y
Structural Model Evidence
Advantages:
1. Understand causation because more information on link between M and Y
2. Knowing how M affects Y helps prediction
2. ir more relevant than i: ir high during Depression: Figure 1 3. Ms during Depression (Friedman and Schwartz): money
“tight”
4. Wrong structural model to look at link of i and I, should
third factor: e.g., 1936–37 rise in reserve requirements and 1937-38 recession
© 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.
26-9
Monetary Transmission Mechanisms
Recent work indicates that the exchange rate transmission mechanism plays an important role in how monetary policy affects the economy.
© 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.
M and Y are possible
2. Keynesian model too simple, unfair handicap
3. A measure poorly constructed
Postmortem with different measures of A: no clearcut victory
Great Depression 2. Documents timing evidence More convincing than other monetarist evidence: Episodes are almost like “controlled experiments” 1. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc applies 2. History allows ruling out of reverse causation and
With sticky P, an in M leads to a in short term i and also short term ir. According to the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, this also long-term ir. The in short- and long-term ir leads to an in C and I spending.
26-2
Reduced Form Evidence
Advantages: 1. No restrictions on how M affects Y: better able to
find link from M to Y Disadvantages: 1. Reverse causation possible 2. Third factor may produce correlation of M and Y
26-12
Monetary Transmission Mechanisms
Other Asset Channels
Wealth Channel:
Was introduced by Franco Modigliani in his famous “life cycle hypothesis of consumption.” He argued that the most important transmission mechanism of monetary policy involves consumption.
Traditional Interest-Rate Channels:
M , ir , I , Y The interest rate channel of monetary transmission applies equally
to C. Also, it places emphasis on ir rather than i. Moreover, it is the long-term ir and not the short-term ir that is viewed as having the major impact on C and I spending.
M , Pe , e , ir , CEducation Canada Inc.
26-10
Monetary Transmission Mechanisms
Other Asset Channels
Exchange Rate Channel:
Chapter 26
Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy: The Evidence
© 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.
Two Types of Empirical Evidence
Structural Model Evidence
© 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.
26-8
Historical Evidence
Friedman and Schwartz: Monetary History of the U.S. 1. Important as criticism of Keynesian evidence on
© 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.
26-3
Early Keynesian Evidence
Evidence:
1. Great Depression: i on T-bonds to low levels monetary policy was “easy”
2. No statistical link from i to I