Analysis

Analysis: China's economic slowdown
The 2014-12-01 10:56 China investment network - A + A
Core tip: "the new normal is a global phenomenon, in fact, the Chinese academy of social sciences, division, vice President of the committee members' think so.
The new normal is a global phenomenon
The international financial crisis over is known as the "great stability" old normal phase
"The new normal in fact is a global phenomenon", the Chinese academy of social sciences, division, vice President of the committee members' think so.
', 'said the new normal, before the world was on a economics called "great stability" old normal phase, since the mid - 1980 to 2007, lasted for over 20 years. "Big stable period, the global economy has experienced a rare good times. Sustained economic growth, low inflation and low unemployment rate, at the same time, the characteristics of the economic cycle fluctuation obviously."
"At the beginning of 2007 the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the end of the big and stable" old normal ", the global economy has entered a "new normal", 'analysis, the new normal global economy has five features:
Economic growth in low volatility. , according to data from 1992 to 2007, the euro area actual average annual GDP growth rate of 2.08%. In 2008 and 2009, the average annual growth rate dropped to 2.03%. Since from 2010 to 2019, expects its average annual growth rate is only 1.12%.
Appeared in the process of "deleveraging" dilemma. The crisis is fundamentally because of various kinds of economic subject asset-liability ratio is too high. Economy to recover from the crisis, to reduce debt ratios to leverage, but the deleveraging process can produce economic contraction, which in turn impede economic recovery. "This is because, after various economic entities to obtain new money, often be used to repay debt, rather than engaged in production and consumption, investment and other" normal "economic activity, leading to economic contraction", 'said.
Trade protectionism. Under the background of the general economic slowdown, rising unemployment, the implementation of trade protection tend to become the first choice for many countries.
National policy cycle is not synchronized. "Right now, the United States, Britain and other countries began to exit after carried out several rounds of quantitative easing, while Europe and Japan's quantitative easing is', 'said," this could provide the international speculative capital is engaged in the "carry trade" suitable hotbed, lead to large-scale international capital flows, international financial market turmoil."
Global governance in vacuum. "Since 2007, almost all the global governance mechanism and governance mechanism have failed. The new normal in the global economy, should be devoted to reshape the global governance mechanism", 'said.
Structural reduction is a major characteristic
China's economy since 2009 to enter the new normal, four factors lead to structural slowdown
'believe that China's economy since 2009 has entered a new normal, its are main the feature is structural slowdown. According to forecast of the Chinese academy of social sciences, from 2011 to 2015, from 2016 to 2020, 2021 to 2030, three times, China's potential growth rate range respectively 7.8%, 8.7%, 5.7%, 6.6%, 5.4%, 6.6%.
'analysis, resulting in structural slowdown there are mainly four factors:
- resource allocation efficiency decline.
Over the past 30 years, a large number of labor force and resources in China from the low labor productivity of agriculture, such as an industry, to the higher labor productivity in manufacturing, such as the secondary industry transfer, this leads to the overall labor productivity increase, lead to economic growth, a structural acceleration.
"Now, manufacturing has nearly saturated, increasingly, such as population, resources, to give priority to with services of the third industry, and in the service sector labor productivity significantly lower than in manufacturing. In China, because of the service industry more than low, the productivity gap is more obvious. As a result, the overall labor productivity will drop, causing a decline in economic growth, this is known as structural slowdown." 'said.
- factor supply efficiency decline.
Labor, capital and technology progress, is the three main factors of supporting economic development. "In recent years, as China's population aging intensifies, and drive the labor participation rate drop, cheap Labour supply mode has come to an end, in the traditional sense gradually rising Labour costs. This is the demographic dividend in recent years, people often say that disappear," 'said.
Look at capital input, an aging population, the traditional industrialization end, factors such as consumption rise gradually, in China's savings rate began to fall, can be used for the investment of capital growth will slow.
"In addition, return on capital is low, the technological progress is slow is our country's economic ills, have yet to see significant improvement", 'he says.
- innovation lag.
Nowadays, China has more and more close to the international frontier science and technology. "At this time, there had been no system or abroad to study, or in the face of aggressive competition, developed economies begin technology blockade. China must fully from dependence on technology import to independent innovation, and this change will not be easy", 'said.
- the resources and environment constraints.
'said, resources and environment have been can be "ignored" external factors, however, fog in the air long lingering, overall levels of heavy metals in food drinking water pollution and so on comprehensively, has posed a challenge to the traditional mode of economic development. So, in China's economic growth function is endogenous to add the resources and environment constraints of negative factors.
The new normal brings new challenges
Investment mechanism, it is necessary to reform the deleveraging is a difficult task, urbanization in transition, the real estate market situation reversed
'thought, the new normal makes some deep-seated structural problems in China "bottom", and we must seriously face the challenge in the future. He elaborated the four big challenge under the new normal:
First, it is necessary to reform the investment mechanism.
China's economy has long been a source of suffering from "excess investment/growth/" paradox, namely growth is highly dependent on the investment, and investment is the origin of excess capacity.
Given that consumption in the short term, the upcoming have larger growth, external demand will also no longer as in the past to provide with fusion contribution to economic growth, in quite a long time in the future, China's economic growth will still rely heavily on investment. "The new normal, therefore, still can't ignore the investment, the key role of should carefully study what (investment), who vote to cast (investors), problems of how to cast (funding)", 'said.
Second, the deleveraging is a difficult task.
"If the real economy calculation leverage ratios of total debt to GDP, China's leverage ratio rose from 170% in 2008 to 215% in 2013", 'says, one of the most concern is our country enterprise the problem of high debt ratios. In 2013, our country enterprise the ratio of debt to GDP, at 113%, higher than that of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States and other countries, is also the international warning line of more than 90%.
'thought, in order to leverage, must be determined to twist to indirect financing, financing structure, at the same time, should further reform of the state-owned economy, control the soft budget constraint under the tendency of high debt, further control of local government investment behavior.
Thirdly, the urbanization in transition.
Traditional urbanization is mainly from the Angle of "the city" planning and urbanization, focus on urban scale expansion, ignore the "peasant", including enjoy equal public services such as health care, education, pensions, realize land reasonable remuneration as a factor of production, and the promotion of urban and rural employment, we should guarantee harmonious development between industry and agriculture, etc.
Under the "new normal, from the adjustment of economic structure and transformation of the mode of development, the implementation of urban and rural integration to promote the new urbanization, its essence is to realize the equalization of public service," 'said.
Fourthly, the real estate market situation reversed.
'thinks, different from the previous, the real estate market downturn triggers comes not from policy level, but from the profound change of the urban housing market supply and demand pattern within, the decline could take 3 to 5 years.
"Short-term countermeasures to deal with the real estate market adjustment, the clear is the comprehensive contrasting with the real estate regulation policy in recent years, the improper selection and contradictory and abandoned, goal is also the market as they really are. In the long run, need to speed up the" top-level design "for the real estate market." 'said.
The new normal is new
New normal again brought the development opportunity, with period of strategic opportunities of new contents
"Special need to stress is that the new normal pregnant with revolutionary shift", 'says, on a global scale, the new normal means of the supply chain restructuring, adjustment of economic structure, the reshaping of the governance system of reengineering and the relations between big powers; At home, the new normal also means that China's economic "recovery". "Through this stage, China's economy will be fundamentally get rid of the investment drive and export driven growth way, on the path of the pursuit of quality, efficiency and sustainable development, spanning the middle-income trap, realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
'thought, the new normal once again brought the development opportunity, and give period of strategic opportunities of new content.
The new normal "squeeze water".
"The moisture in our country's economy, the main should be looking for" from the investment-driven economic growth way, 'said, if the investment can't well formation capacity, become "project," or even "jerry-built projects", and this is part of the growth rate of investment corresponding moisture; If investment has formed the production capacity, but the excess production capacity and product backlog, corresponding with the growth rate and moisture. Under the "new normal, economic growth is slowing, investment growth slowing will continue to compression, squeeze out the water."
The new normal is conducive to innovation drive.
Under the new normal, because investment and exports can no longer rely on traditional factors such as the Chinese economy will be forced to turn to innovation driven new orbit, the result of this is what we pursuit for years.
The new normal is conducive to straighten out the relationship between government and market.
'thought, the new normal will weaken GDP evaluation mechanism, so, the local government of investment promotion and capital introduction and investment impulse can be effectively and long-standing "offside" absence "problem" is also the solution conditions.
The new normal is conducive to the sustainable economic development and social justice.
"In stretch tight tight macro environment, we will set out to reduce resource waste and environmental damage phenomenon, to promote construction of ecological civilization," 'said, "on the other hand, if too pursuit of speed, is highly dependent on investment, which can cause capital owners in long-term economic dominance, making profits accounted for the proportion of national income is too high, and the corresponding is the owner of labor income ratio is too low, lead to unfair distribution; if this pattern for a long time, will be' rich people are getting richer, more and don't have the money people don't have money 'wait for a phenomenon, make the social classes and benefit pattern curing. Under the new normal speed, the less prized is beneficial to reduce the income distribution gap and improve the social mobility, fairness and inclusive growth."
The new normal contains the momentum of development. Good finding, mining and using the power, we need to revolutionary way to adjust to the development of the old normal. "Reform is the main melody of the new normal," 'said, "the global economy has entered a new normal, countries also started the reform competition. The most complete, the most impressive understanding of reform strategy, the most determined, the most obvious effect of countries, will be in the future global competition ahead."。