Chapter_16多恩布什第十版

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多恩布什《宏观经济学》第10版第9章收入与支出

AD C I G NX
在均衡的产出水平上，总供给等于总需求（Output is at its equilibrium level when
the quantity of output produced is equal to
the quantity demanded.）。因此，当下式成立时，经济处于均衡产出水平（equilibrium level of output）。
因此有：
AD C I G NX C c Y TA TR I G NX C c TA TR I G NX cY A cY 上述方程的总需求函数如图9-2所示。可以看出，
总需求也决定于收入水平，随着收入水平的增加而增加。
demand and therefore output.）
●增加自发支出所增加的产出，大于1：1，换言之，存在着一种乘数效应。（Increases in autonomous spending increase output more than one for one. In other words, there is a multiplier effect.） ●乘数的大小取决于边际消费倾向与税率。（The size of the multiplier depends on the
5．储蓄与投资总需求等于产出的均衡条件，在均衡状态下，
可以表示为计划投资等于储蓄（In equilibrium,
planned investment equals saving）。这个条件只适用于没有政府部门和没有对外贸易的经济中。
图9-3
储蓄与投资
均衡收入水平是在 AD 与45°线的交点 E 点出现的。所以，在均衡收入水平上，并且只有在这一水平上，储蓄等于（计划）投资。相形之下，收入高于均衡收入水平Y0时，储蓄（45°线与消费曲线之间的距离）超过计划投资。收入低于 Y0时，则计划投资超过储蓄。

Chapter_15 The Demand for Money(宏观经济学,多恩布什,第十版)

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The more money a person holds, the less likely he or she is to incur the costs of illiquidity
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The more money a person holds, the more interest he/she will give up → similar tradeoff encountered with transactions demand for money
4.
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Standard of deferred payment
Money units are used in long term transactions (ex. loans)
15-5
The Demand for Money: Theory
•
The demand for money is the demand for real money balances → people hold money for its purchasing power
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As liquidity of an asset decreases, the interest yield increases
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A typical economic tradeoff: in order to get more liquidity, asset holders have to sacrifice yield
•
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At the end of 2005, M1 = $4,596 per person Debate whether broader measure, M2, might better meet the definition of money in a modern payment system

宏观经济学多恩布什第10版教材下载及考研视频网课

宏观经济学多恩布什第10版教材下载及考研视频网课多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）网授精讲班【教材精讲＋考研真题串讲】目录多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）网授精讲班【郑炳老师讲授的完整课程】【共41课时】多恩布什《宏观经济学（第10版）》网授精讲班【王志伟老师讲授的部分课程】【共28课时】电子书（题库）•多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）【教材精讲+考研真题解析】讲义与视频课程【39小时高清视频】•多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）笔记和课后习题详解•试看部分内容导论与国民收入核算第1章导论1.1 复习笔记1宏观经济学宏观经济学主要讨论总体经济的运行，具体包括：经济增长问题——收入、就业机会的变化；经济波动问题——失业问题，通货膨胀问题；经济政策——政府能否、以及如何干预经济，改善经济的运行。

2．微观经济学与宏观经济学的关系（1）二者的联系第一，微观经济学和宏观经济学互为补充。

微观经济学是在资源总量既定的条件下，通过研究个体经济活动参与者的经济行为及其后果来说明市场机制如何实现各种资源的最优配置；宏观经济学则是在资源配置方式既定的条件下研究经济中各有关总量的决定及其变化。

第二，微观经济学是宏观经济学的基础。

这是因为任何总体总是由个体组成的，对总体行为的分析自然也离不开个体行为的分析。

第三，微观经济学和宏观经济学都采用了供求均衡分析的方法。

微观经济学通过需求曲线和供给曲线决定产品的均衡价格和产量，宏观经济学通过总需求曲线和总供给曲线研究社会的一般价格水平和产出水平。

（2）二者的区别第一，研究对象不同。

微观经济学研究的是个体经济活动参与者的行为及其后果，侧重讨论市场机制下各种资源的最优配置问题，而宏观经济学研究的是社会总体的经济行为及其后果，侧重讨论经济社会资源的充分利用问题。

第二，中心理论不同。

微观经济学的中心理论是价格理论，宏观经济学的中心理论是国民收入决定论。

第三，研究方法不同。

微观经济学的研究方法是个量分析，宏观经济学的研究方法是总量分析。

华南理工大学参考书

交通工程
《交通工程学》王炜、过秀成,东南大学出版社2000年版
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概率论
《概率论与数理统计》(第2版)栾长福、梁满发著,华南理工大学出版社2007年8月出版
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传热学
《传热学》杨世铭、陶文铨等编,高等教育出版社2003年
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822
美学原理
《美学原理》张法、王旭晓著，中国人民大学出版社2005年版
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城市规划原理
《城市规划原理》(第三版)同济大学等编,中国建筑工业出版社2001;城市规划专业本科专业教材
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微生物学
《现代工业微生物》杨汝德,华南理工大学出版社；
《微生物学教程》周德庆,高等教育出版社。
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数学分析
《数学分析》(上下册),复旦大学数学系编,高等教育出版社；《数学分析》(上下册),华东师范大学数学系编,高等教育出版社
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英语翻译基础
《英汉翻译基础教程》，冯庆华、穆雷主编，高等教育出版社，2008年；
《文体与翻译》，刘宓庆，中国对外翻译出版公司，1998
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法硕联考专业基础(法学)
全国统考科目，见国家统一的考试大纲
398
法硕联考专业基础(非法学)
全国统考科目，见国家统一的考试大纲
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管理类联考综合能力
504
建筑设计2(做图)
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素描
506
工业设计快题设计
网上提供考试大纲
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高等数学(单考)
《高等数学》（上、下册）第五版同济大学数学教研室主编，高等教育出版社

多恩布什《宏观经济学》第十版英文原版I19revised

CHAPTER 19BIG EVENTS: THE ECONOMICS OF DEPRESSION,HYPERINFLATION, AND DEFICITSChapter Outline•The Great Depression and its impact on macroeconomics•Money and inflation•Monetarism and the rational expectations approach•The effects of hyperinflation•Disinflation and the sacrifice ratio•Credibility•The Fed's dilemma•Deficits, money growth, and seigniorage•The inflation tax•Federal government outlays and revenues•The primary deficit•The debt-to-income ratio•The burden of the debt•Financing Social SecurityChanges from the Previous EditionThe material in this chapter was in Chapter 18 in the previous edition. It has been updated, Boxes 19-2 and 19-5 have been added, and other boxes have been renumbered accordingly. Introduction to the MaterialThe Great Depression in the 1930s presented an economic crisis of enormous proportions. Between 1929 and 1933, real GDP in the U.S. fell by almost 30% and unemployment reached an all-time high of almost 25%. While the economy grew fairly rapidly from 1933-37, unemployment remained in the double digit range. In 1937/38, there was another major recession and the unemployment rate remained above 5% until 1942. In the 1930s unemployment averaged 18.8%, but by 1939 real GDP had recovered to its 1929 level.The classical economists of the time were not equipped to explain the existence of such substantial and persistent unemployment or to prescribe policies to deal with it. Only in 1936, in John Maynard Keynes’book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, was a macroeconomic theory introduced upon which policies to keep the economy out of future recessions could be based. Keynes’ theory provided an explanation of what had happened during the Great Depression and suggested policies that might have prevented it.The stock market crash of 1929 is often seen as the catalyst for the Great Depression but, in fact, economic activity actually started to decline even before the crash. What might well have393been an average recession turned into a very severe depression due to the inept economic policies employed at the time. The Fed failed to provide needed liquidity to banks and did little to prevent the collapse of the financial system. The huge contraction in money supply due to the large numbers of bank failures caused the economic downturn. Fiscal policy was weak at best. Politicians concerned with balancing the budget raised taxes to match increases in government spending, so the decline in aggregate demand was not counteracted.Many other countries also suffered during the same period, mainly as a result of the collapse of the international financial system and the enactment of high tariffs worldwide. These policies were designed to protect domestic producers in an attempt to improve each country’s domestic trade balance at the expense of foreign trading partners. However, the attempts to "export" unemployment ultimately resulted in an overall decline in world trade and production.In the U.S., many institutional changes and administrative actions, collectively known as the New Deal, were implemented in the 1930s. The Fed was reorganized and new institutions were created, including the FDIC, the SEC, and the Social Security Administration. Public works programs and a program to establish orderly competition among firms were also implemented.The experience of the Great Depression led to the belief that the economy is inherently unstable and active stabilization policy is needed to maintain full employment. Keynes was an advocate of active government policy. In his work, he explained what had happened in the Great Depression and what could be done to avoid a recurrence. Many years later, Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz offered a different explanation. In their book A Monetary History of the United States, Friedman and Schwartz argued that the severe decline in money supply, caused by the Fed’s failure to prevent banks from failing, was the reason for the severity of the Great Depression. They claimed that monetary policy is very powerful and that fluctuations in money supply can explain most of the fluctuations in GDP over the last century. This argument provided the impetus for new research on the effects of fiscal and monetary stabilization policies. While economists are still debating these issues, we can conclude that monetary policy can affect the behavior of output in the short and medium run, but not in the long run. In the long run, increases in the growth rate of money supply will simply lead to increases in the rate of inflation. Box 19-3 gives an overview of the monetarist positions on the importance of money for the economy, while Box 19-2 quotes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who admits that the magnitude of the Great Depression was indeed the result of the Fed’s action—or, more accurately, inaction.The link between inflation and monetary growth can easily be derived from the quantity theory of money equation:MV = PY ==> %∆M + %∆V = %∆P + %∆Y ==> m + v = π + y ==> π = m - y + v In other words, the rate of inflation (%∆P = π) is determined by the difference between the growth rate of nominal money supply (%∆M = m) and the growth rate of real output (%∆Y = y), adjusted for the percentage change in the income velocity of money (%∆V = v).Figure 19-1 shows that trends in the rate of inflation and the growth of money supply (M2) have been somewhat similar over the last four decades. There is plenty of evidence to support the notion that in the long run, inflation is a monetary phenomenon here in the U.S. as well as in other countries. However, there are short-run variations, indicating that changes in velocity and output growth have also affected the inflation rate. By the mid 1990s, the relationship between394M2 growth and inflation had largely broken down, even for the long run. It is still true, however, that there has never been inflation in the long run without rapid growth of money supply, and the faster money grew the higher the rate of inflation.Although there is no exact definition, countries are said to experience hyperinflation when the inflation rate reaches 1,000% annually. Countries that have experienced hyperinflation have all had huge budget deficits which, in many cases, originated from increased government spending during wartime. A classical example is the German hyperinflation of 1922/23. In an economy experiencing hyperinflation, there is often widespread indexing, most likely to foreign exchange rates rather than to the price level, since prices are changing so fast. Eventually, hyperinflation becomes too much to bear and the government is forced to take harsh measures, including fiscal reform and the introduction of a new monetary unit pegging the new money to a foreign currency. Box 19-4 on the situation in Bolivia in the 1980s provides a good example of how hyperinflation can be stopped. It also points out that the costs are great in terms of decreasing per-capita income. In 1985, Bolivia stopped external debt service, raised taxes, reduced money creation, and stabilized the exchange rate. Inflation came down quickly, but per-capita income in 1989 was 35 percent less than it had been a decade earlier.In its fight against hyperinflation, Israel tried to keep unemployment rates low by instituting wage and price controls while also sharply cutting budget deficits and rationing credit. These measures reduced the rate of inflation significantly. In the late 1980s, the governments of Argentina and Brazil imposed wage-price controls but failed to supplement them with fiscal austerity, so the result was much less satisfactory, although they, like many South American countries eventually succeeded in lowering their inflation rates. In the early 1990s, countries in Eastern Europe experienced brief periods of high inflation during their adjustments from centrally planned economies to more market based economies (as shown in Table 19-6). There is no guarantee that periods of hyperinflation will not surface again. New Box 19-5 describes the situation in Zimbabwe where the decision made in 2006 to print more money to finance higher government spending led to inflation rates in excess of 1,000%.When inflation is high, policy makers must focus on reducing it without causing a major economic downturn. This is fairly difficult to accomplish, however, since labor contracts tend to reflect past expectations and new contract negotiations take time. In addition, it may be difficult for a central bank to gain credibility in its fight against inflation because of its behavior in the past. Credibility is important, since inflationary expectations adjust down faster if people believe that a government is serious in its attempt to reduce inflation. If this is the case, the expectations-adjusted Phillips curve shifts to the left sooner and the economy adjusts more quickly to the full-employment level of output at a lower inflation rate. But some increase in unemployment is almost always needed to reduce inflation, since real wages need to adjust down to their full-employment level. The costs to society are often measured in terms of the sacrifice ratio, that is, the ratio of the cumulative percentage loss of GDP to the achieved reduction in the inflation rate.Probably all economists now agree with the monetarist propositions that rapid money growth tends to be inflationary and inflation cannot be kept low unless money growth is kept low. We also know that monetary policy has long and variable lags. But other monetarist positions remain more controversial, including those that suggest that the economy is inherently stable and that monetary targets are better than interest rate targets. The rational expectations approach can be seen as an extension of the monetarist approach, with a strong belief that markets clear rapidly395and people use all information available to them. This is why they advocate policy rules rather than discretion and place emphasis on the credibility of policy makers. Box 19-6 highlights the rational expectations approach.Any government that is unwilling to show fiscal restraint will ultimately be faced with excessive money growth and an increase in the inflation rate. Continued large government budget deficits create a policy dilemma for a central bank, which must decide whether to monetize the debt. If the central bank decides not to finance the debt, the increased borrowing needs of the government may drive interest rates up, leading to the crowding out of private spending. The central bank may then be blamed for slowing down economic growth. But if the central bank is worried about high interest rates and monetizes the debt in order to keep interest rates low, inflation may increase with the central bank taking the blame.The financing of government spending through the creation of high-powered money is an alternative to explicit taxation. Inflation acts like a tax since the government can spend more by printing money while people can spend less, since some of their income must be used to increase their nominal money holdings. The inflation tax revenue is defined as:inflation tax revenue = (inflation rate)*(the real money base).The ability of the government to raise additional tax revenue through the creation of money (and therefore inflation) is called seigniorage, and Table 19-7 shows some empirical evidence of the inflation tax revenue raised as percentage of GDP for some Latin American countries. However, there is a limit to how much revenue a government can raise through an inflation tax. As inflation increases, people reduce their currency holdings and banks reduce their excess reserves, since holding money becomes more costly. Eventually the real monetary base falls so much that the government's inflation tax revenue decreases. Figure 19-3 shows this graphically.While higher deficits can cause higher inflation if they are financed through money creation, higher inflation may also contribute to deficits, since inflation reduces the real value of tax payments. In addition, high nominal interest rates (caused by high inflation) raise the nominal interest payments the government must make on the national debt. The inflation-adjusted deficit corrects for that and is defined in the following way:inflation-adjusted deficit = total deficit - (inflation rate)*(national debt).Large government budget deficits and rapid monetary expansion seem to be inevitable parts of hyperinflation. The high rate of monetary expansion originates in the government's desire to raise its inflation tax revenue. However, the government can only be successful if it prints money faster than the public anticipates. Eventually, the process will break down, as the real money base becomes smaller and smaller.During the 1980s, the U.S. experienced very large budget deficits, which were temporarily brought under control in the late 1990s, only to increase sharply again in 2002. Figure 19-4 shows the trend in U.S. budget deficits as percentage of GDP, while Tables 19-8 and 19-9 give an overview of trends in the U.S. government's outlays and revenues. It is interesting to note that entitlements and interest payments on the national debt have increased significantly over the last396four decades. On the revenue side, corporate income taxes as a share of GDP have declined, while social insurance taxes have increased substantially.To highlight the role of the national debt in the budget, it is useful to distinguish between the actual budget deficit and the primary (non-interest) budget deficit. The U.S. budget deficits in the 1990s were actually more a result of high interest payments on the previously incurred debt than of government spending exceeding tax revenues. This is the legacy of past deficits. As the national debt accumulates, its interest costs accelerate, contributing even more to the budget deficit. The national debt is the result of all past and present budget deficits, and the process by which the Treasury finances the debt is called debt management. As old government securities mature, the Treasury issues new securities to make the payments on old ones.Robert Eisner has argued that it is important to recognize that the government has assets and not just debts. Any spending on infrastructure should be treated as accumulation of real capital and offset by the debt issued to pay for it. In other words, just like private spending, government expenditures should be separated into government “consumption” and government “investment.”With the U.S. gross national debt now exceeding $8.5 trillion (or over $28,000 per capita), it becomes important to consider its real burden. If individuals who hold government bonds consider an increase in government debt as an increase in their personal wealth, they will consume more and a lower share of GDP will be invested. This will lead to a lower rate of capital accumulation and slower future economic growth. Another concern is that foreigners hold a large part of the debt. Since the burden of future tax payments on this part of the debt (plus interest) will fall on U.S. taxpayers while the recipients of these payments will be foreigners, there will be a reduction in U.S. net wealth.High deficits cannot be sustained indefinitely, but as long as national income is growing faster than the national debt (implying a declining debt-income ratio), the potential for instability is fairly low. In the 1990s, there was widespread sentiment that government had grown too big and that sound fiscal policy had to be implemented. The fiscal restriction finally succeeded in turning the large budget deficits of the 1980s into budget surpluses in 1998. A debate quickly began among politicians about the best ways to put the surplus to use. Was it better to cut taxes, increase spending, or gradually pay off the national debt? The path chosen by the Bush administration was a massive tax cut, leading to renewed budget deficits in 2002.Another debate revolves around Social Security reform. There is increasing concern about the financial difficulties that the Social Security system will face in the near future. The system is financed to a large extent on a pay-as-you-go basis, with most of the earmarked taxes paid by current workers being used immediately to finance the Social Security benefits of current retirees. Such a transfer of resources from the young to the old can be accomplished if:• A growing population increases the ratio of workers to retirees. If population growth slows, however, then contributions have to be increased or benefits have to be cut.•High-income growth allows retirement benefits to be higher than past contributions, since the source of the benefits is the higher income of the younger generations. If income growth slows, however, then the system may face financing difficulties.•The political situation is favorable. A larger percentage of older people than younger people vote so the elderly can enforce the intergenerational transfer through the political system. But at some point, the young, who expect to receive lower benefits than their parents relative to their contributions, may refuse to support the system through their taxes.397While the Social Security system is often seen as a “forced savings system,” which makes sure that everyone accumulates some wealth for retirement, there is strong empirical evidence that the system actually reduces national saving due to its pay-as-you-go financing. The decline in saving reduces the rate of capital accumulation, which lowers productivity and future living standards.The Social Security trust fund actually has been growing as a result of the Social Security Reform of 1983, but current predictions are that the system will be bankrupt after 2045 when most of the baby-boomer generation will have retired. While most people do not wish to see the Social Security system totally abandoned, additional reforms are very likely in the near future. The central question is how to earn higher returns on the funds invested to prevent the system from insolvency and how to preserve equity for those who have already paid into the system. Suggestions for LecturingStudents who follow the news see stock prices fluctuate daily and they probably heard about past stock market bubbles and crashes. These students will be curious about the impact of major swings in stock market activity on the economy. Most people assume that the stock market crash of October, 1929 marked the beginning of the Great Depression and are not aware that economic activity had actually begun to decline earlier. A good way to introduce the material in this chapter is to ask: “Could a Great Depression happen again?” or “Do stock market crashes cause economic downturns?” Either will lead to a lively class discussion that can help to highlight several of the issues raised in the chapter. In this discussion the major stock market crash of October, 1987 and the decline in (especially high-tech) stock values that started in March, 2000 will undoubtedly come up. They are reminders that stock market bubbles will always eventually burst and that there is considerable risk associated with buying stocks.Most economists now agree that the magnitude of the Great Depression was exacerbated by inadequate fiscal and monetary policy responses. The Fed’s failure to inject e nough liquidity into the banking system to prevent failures led to a severe contraction in the supply of money and an economic downturn, and. Policy makers also did little initially to stimulate economic activity through fiscal policy. The severity of the economic situation in the 1930’s is not surprising to economists today, as no well-developed economic theory existed at the time that could deal with a disturbance of this magnitude. It was not until John Maynard Keynes offered an explanation of what had happened during the Great Depression and suggested ways to prevent future recessions that macroeconomists began to ponder the values of fiscal and monetary stabilization policies. It is no wonder that Keynes is seen by many as the “father of all macroeconomists.”Economic theories are generally pro ducts of their time and, as mentioned above, Keynes’macroeconomic theory was developed as a result of the Great Depression. His explanation and prescription for preventing future depressions were widely accepted, but did not have much impact on policy making in the U.S. until the 1960s, when the government followed (mostly fiscal) activist policies to ensure full employment.The handling of the major stock market crash of 1987 appears to indicate that policy makers have learned from past mistakes. Stock values dropped by more than 24% in October of 1987, but we did we not see a severe downturn in economic activity. Why not? For one, Alan398Greenspan, who had been appointed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Fed only a few months earlier, was conscious of what had happened in 1929 and immediately assured financial markets that the Fed would provide the liquidity needed to prevent a financial collapse. The Fed quickly started to undertake open market purchases in an effort to drive interest rates down. In addition, as a result of institutional changes implemented after the Great Depression, government now has a much larger role in the economy. Students should be aware that the Great Depression not only shaped modern macroeconomic thinking and approaches to stabilization policy, but also shaped the structure of many U.S. institutions. Instructors may want to spend some time talking about these institutions and their importance to our economy.It also should be noted that the economy was in much better shape when the stock market crashed in 1987 than it was in 1929. While we can only speculate on what would have happened had the economy been in worse shape, the existence of programs such as Social Security and unemployment insurance would have dampened the severity of a downturn by providing some automatic stability. In addition, the existence of the FDIC, which insures all bank deposits up to $100,000, now serves to avoid panic in financial markets and runs on banks.The recession in 1981/82, which was the most severe recession since the Great Depression and brought the unemployment level close to 11%, provides another good example that policy makers now react much more swiftly to major economic upheavals. Even though the recession was fairly severe, it did not last for an extended period, since expansionary policies were implemented almost immediately after the magnitude of the downturn became clear.There are still disagreements about the primary causes for the Great Depression and these should be clarified. The Keynesian explanation concentrates on spending behavior, that is, the reduction in consumption and the collapse of investment. The decrease in aggregate demand was exacerbated by the restrictive fiscal policy implemented by the government trying to balance the budget. The monetarist explanation concentrates on the behavior of money and asserts that the Fed failed to prevent the collapse of the banking system. The large number of bank failures led to a loss of confidence in the banking system, an enormous increase in the currency-deposit ratio, and therefore a huge decrease in the money multiplier. Monetarists see the resulting severe decline in money supply as the cause of the Great Depression. Both explanations fit the facts and it is important for instructors to point out that there is no inherent conflict between them; in fact, they complement one another.While the programs of the New Deal are largely credited with revitalizing the economy in the mid-1930s, probably one of the most important factors was the sharp increase in money supply, starting in 1933. This is often a forgotten fact. It should be noted that while unemployment remained high, the deflation of prices and wages stopped after 1933, and output began to rebound. In addition, some of the programs implemented by the government after the Great Depression helped to keep wages from falling further.The fact that unemployment’s downward pressure on wages tends to weaken if high unemployment is persistent should also be mentioned at this point. The possibility that the behavior of nominal wages affects the rate of inflation should be discussed with reference to the situation in some European countries, where the unemployment rate has been above the levels experienced in the U.S. for quite some time.The German hyperinflation of 1922-23, when the inflation rate averaged 322% per month, provides another example of a major economic event that shaped macroeconomic thinking. But399students will probably prefer to discuss more recent examples, such as the Bolivian experience of the 1980s highlighted in Box 19-4 or the situation in Zimbabwe starting in 2006. Both cases make clear that the cost of stopping hyperinflation can be extremely high in terms of a decreased standard of living. The discussion should make it clear that large budget deficits and rapid monetary growth are always prevalent in times of hyperinflation, and only draconian measures can ensure a reduction in inflationary expectations. Without such measures the economy will collapse and has to be completely restructured, with the introduction of a new monetary unit that may be pegged to a foreign exchange rate.There is no exact definition of hyperinflation, but it is said to exist when the inflation rate reaches 1,000% on an annual basis. Students will always remember the following definition of inflation in general: “inflation is nothing more than too much money chasing too few goods.” But is inflation “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” as Milton Friedman put it? Figure 19-1 indicates that the rate of inflation and the growth rate of M2 show somewhat similar long-run trends (at least until about 1993), but there are large variations in the short run. In other words, the link between monetary growth and the inflation rate is by no means precise. For one, growth in output affects the inflation rate and real money holdings. Interest rate changes and financial innovations also affect desired money holdings and therefore the income velocity of money. Empirical evidence indicates that the velocity of M2 has shown a fairly constant long-run trend from the 1960s to the 1990s, while the velocity of M1 has fluctuated significantly over the last few decades. Considering the enormous changes that took place in the U.S. banking system in the 1980s, it is surprising that the income velocity of M2 actually stayed as stable as it did. By the late 1990s, the link between M2 growth and the inflation rate had largely broken down; the possible causes and any monetary policy implications should be discussed.By now, students should be familiar with the quantity theory of money equation and should be able to derive the equation that shows the long-run relationship between money growth, output growth, velocity changes, and the rate of inflation. We can thus derive the following:MV = PY ==> %∆M + %∆V = %∆P + %∆Y ==> %∆P = %∆M - %∆Y + %∆V==> π = m - y + v.This equation indicates that higher growth rates of money (%∆M = m) adjusted for growth in output (%∆Y = y) and changes in velocity (%∆V = v) are associated with higher inflation rates (%∆P = π). The strict monetary growth rule is based on this equation and suggests that a zero inflation rate can be achieved if money supply is only allowed to grow at the same rate as the long-run trend of output, assuming that velocity remains stable. It should be made clear, that this equation shows only a long-run relationship and that output growth and velocity can be highly variable in the short run, causing great variations in the inflation rate.Besides looking at the role of monetary growth in determining the inflation rate, instructors may also want to spend some time looking at the role of nominal wages and labor productivity. Just by recalling the simple equationw = W/P,400。

多恩布什宏观经济学第十版课后习题答案03

CHAPTER 3Solutions to the Problems in the TextbookConceptual Problems:1. The production function provides a quantitative link between inputs and output. For example, theCobb-Douglas production function mentioned in the text is of the form:Y = F(N,K) = AN1-θKθ,where Y represents the level of output. (1 - θ) and θ are weights equal to the shares of labor (N) and capital (K) in production, while A is often used as a measure for the level of technology. It can be easily shown that labor and capital each contribute to economic growth by an amount that is equal to their individual growth rates multiplied by their respective share in income.2. The Solow model predicts convergence, that is, countries with the same production function, savingsrate, and population growth will eventually reach the same level of income per capita. In other words,a poor country may eventually catch up to a richer one by saving at the same rate and makingtechnological innovations. However, if these countries have different savings rates, they will reach different levels of income per capita, even though their long-term growth rates will be the same.3. A production function that omits the stock of natural resources cannot adequately predict the impactof a significant change in the existing stock of natural resources on the economic performance of a country. For example, the discovery of new oil reserves or an entirely new resource would have a significant effect on the level of output that could not be predicted by such a production function.4. Interpreting the Solow residual purely as technological progress would ignore, for example, theimpact that human capital has on the level of output. In other words, this residual not only captures the effect of technological progress but also the effect of changes in human capital (H) on the growth rate of output. To eliminate this problem we can explicitly include human capital in the production function, such thatY = F(K,N,H) = AN a K b H c with a + b + c = 1.Then the growth rate of output can be calculated as∆Y/Y = ∆A/A + a(∆N/N) + b(∆K/K) + c(∆H/H).5. The savings function sy = sf(k) assumes that a constant fraction of output is saved. The investmentrequirement, that is, the (n + d)k-line, represents the amount of investment needed to maintain a constant capital-labor ratio (k). A steady-state equilibrium is reached when saving is equal to the investment requirement, that is, when sy = (n + d)k. At this point the capital-labor ratio k = K/N is not changing, so capital (K), labor (N), and output (Y) all must be growing at the same rate, that is, the rate of population growth n = (∆N/N).86. In the long run, the rate of population growth n = (∆N/N) determines the growth rate of thesteady-state output per capita. In the short run, however, the savings rate, technological progress, and the rate of depreciation can all affect the growth rate.7. Labor productivity is defined as Y/N, that is, the ratio of output (Y) to labor input (N). A surge inlabor productivity therefore occurs if output grows at a faster rate than labor input. In the U.S. we have experienced such a surge in labor productivity since the mid-1990s due to the enormous growth in GDP. This surge can be explained from the introduction of new technologies and more efficient use of existing technologies. Many claim that the increased investment in and use of computer technology has stimulated economic growth. Furthermore, increased global competition has forced many firms to cut costs by reorganizing production and eliminating some jobs. Thus, with large increases in output and a slower rate of job creation we should expect labor productivity to increase. (One should also note that a higher-skilled labor force also can contribute to an increase in labor productivity, since the same number of workers can produce more output if workers are more highly skilled.)Technical Problems:1.a. According to Equation (2), the growth of output is equal to the growth in labor times the labor shareplus the growth of capital times the capital share plus the rate of technical progress, that is, ∆Y/Y = (1 - θ)(∆N/N) + θ(∆K/K) + ∆A/A, where1 - θ is the share of labor (N) and θ is the share of capital (K). Thus if we assume that the rate oftechnological progress (∆A/A) is zero, then output grows at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, since ∆Y/Y = (0.6)(2%) + (0.4)(6%) + 0% = 1.2% + 2.4% = + 3.6%,1.b. The so-called "Rule of 70" suggests that the length of time it takes for output to double can becalculated by dividing 70 by the growth rate of output. Since 70/3.6 = 19.44, it will take just under 20 years for output to double at an annual growth rate of 3.6%,1.c. Now that ∆A/A = 2%, we can calculate economic growth as∆Y/Y = (0.6)(2%) + (0.4)(6%) + 2% = 1.2% + 2.4% + 2% = + 5.6%.Thus it will take 70/5.6 = 12.5 years for output to double at this new growth rate of 5.6%.2.a. According to Equation (2), the growth of output is equal to the growth in labor times the labor shareplus the growth of capital times the capital share plus the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP), that is,∆Y/Y = (1 - θ)(∆N/N) + θ(∆K/K) + ∆A/A, where1 - θ is the share of labor (N) and θ is the share of capital (K). In this example θ = 0.3; therefore,if output grows at 3% and labor and capital grow at 1% each, then we can calculate the change in TFP in the following way3% = (0.3)(1%) + (0.7)(1%) + ∆A/A ==> ∆A/A = 3% - 1% = 2%,that is, the growth rate of total factor productivity is 2%.2.b. If both labor and the capital stock are fixed and output grows at 3%, then all this growth has to be910contributed to the growth in factor productivity, that is, ∆A/A = 3%.3.a. If the capital stock grows by ∆K/K = 10%, the effect on output would be an additional growth rate of ∆Y/Y = (.3)(10%) = 3%.3.b. If labor grows by ∆N/N = 10%, the effect on output would be an additional growth rate of ∆Y/Y = (.7)(10%) = 7%.3.c. If output grows at ∆Y/Y = 7% due to an increase in labor by ∆N/N = 10%, and this increase in laboris entirely d ue to population growth, then per capita income would decrease and people’s welfare would decrease, since∆y/y = ∆Y/Y - ∆N/N = 7% - 10% = - 3%.3.d. If this increase in labor is due to an influx of women into the labor force, the overall population doesnot increase and income per capita would increase by ∆y/y = 7%. Therefore people's welfare would increase.4. Figure 3-4 shows output per head as a function of the capital-labor ratio, that is, y = f(k). Thesavings function is sy = sf(k), and it intersects the straight (n + d)k-line, representing the investment requirement. At this intersection, the economy is in a steady-state equilibrium. Now let us assume that the economy is in a steady-state equilibrium before the earthquake hits, that is, the steady-state capital-labor ratio is currently k *. Assume further, for simplicity, that the earthquake does not affect people's savings behavior.If the earthquake destroys one quarter of the capital stock but less than one quarter of the labor force, then the capital-labor ratio falls from k * to k 1 and per-capita output falls from y * to y 1. Now saving is greater than the investment requirement, that is, sy 1 > (d + n)k 1, and the capital stock and the level of output per capita will grow until the steady state at k * is reached again.However, if the earthquake destroys one quarter of the capital stock but more than one quarter of the labor force, then the capital-labor ratio increases from k * to k 2. Saving now will be less than the investment requirement and thus the capital-labor ratio and the level of output per capita will fall until the steady state at k * is reached again.If exactly one quarter of both the capital stock and the labor stock are destroyed, then the steady state is maintained, that is, the capital-labor ratio and the output per capita do not change.If the severity of the earthquake has an effect on peoples’ savings behavior, then the savings function sy = sf(k) will move either up or down, depending on whether the savings rate (s) increases (if people save more, so more can be invested in an effort to rebuild) or decreases (if people save less, since they decide that life is too short not to live it up).k1k*k2 k5.a. An increase in the population growth rate (n) affects the investment requirement, and the (n + d)k-linegets steeper. As the population grows, more saving must be used to equip new workers with the same amount of capital that the existing workers already have. Therefore output per capita (y) will decrease as will the new optimal capital-labor ratio, which is determined by the intersection of the sy-curve and the (n1 + d)k-line. Since per-capita output will fall, we will have a negative growth rate in the short run. However, the steady-state growth rate of output will increase in the long run, since it will be determined by the new and higher rate of population growth.yy1k1k o k115.b. Starting from an initial steady-state equilibrium at a level of per-capita output y*, the increase in thepopulation growth rate (n) will cause the capital-labor ratio to decline from k* to k1. Output per capita will also decline, a process that will continue at a diminishing rate until a new steady-state level is reached at y1. The growth rate of output will gradually adjust to the new and higher level n1.yy*y1t o t1tkk*k1t o t1t6.a. Assume the production function is of the formY = F(K, N, Z) = AK a N b Z c==>∆Y/Y = ∆A/A + a(∆K/K) + b(∆N/N) + c(∆Z/Z), with a + b + c = 1.Now assume that there is no technological progress, that is, ∆A/A = 0, and that capital and labor grow at the same rate, that is, ∆K/K = ∆N/N = n. If we also assume that all natural resources available are fixed, such that ∆Z/Z = 0, then the rate of output growth will be∆Y/Y = an + bn = (a + b)n.In other words, output will grow at a rate less than n since a + b < 1. Therefore output per worker will fall.6.b. If there is technological progress, that is, ∆A/A > 0, then output will grow faster than before, namely∆Y/Y = ∆A/A + (a + b)n.If ∆A/A > c, then output will grow at a rate larger than n, in which case output per worker will12increase.6.c. If the supply of natural resources is fixed, then output can only grow at a rate that is smaller than therate of population growth and we should expect limits to growth as we run out of natural resources.However, if the rate of technological progress is sufficiently large, then output can grow at a rate faster than population, even if we have a fixed supply of natural resources.7.a. If the production function is of the formY = K1/2(AN)1/2,and A is normalized to 1, then we haveY = K1/2N1/2.In this case capital's and labor's shares of income are both 50%.7.b. This is a Cobb-Douglas production function.7.c. A steady-state equilibrium is reached when sy = (n + d)k.From Y = K1/2N1/2 ==> Y/N = K1/2N-1/2==> y = k1/2==>sk1/2= (n + d)k ==> k-1/2 = (n + d)/s = (0.07 + 0.03)/(.2) = 1/2 ==> k1/2= 2 = y ==> k = 4 .8.a. If technological progress occurs, then the level of output per capita for any given capital-labor ratioincreases. The function y = f(k) increases to y = g(k), and thus the savings function increases from sf(k) to sg(k).y21314k 1 k 2 k8.b. Since g(k) > f(k), it follows that sg(k) > sf(k) for each level of k. Therefore theintersection of the sg(k)-curve with the (n + d)k-line is at a higher level of k. The new steady-state equilibrium will now be at a higher level of saving and output per capita, and at a higher capital-labor ratio.8.c. After the technological progress occurs, the level of saving and investment will increaseuntil a new and higher optimal capital-labor ratio is reached. The ratio of investment to capital will also increase in the transition period, since more has to be invested to reach the higher optimal capital-labor ratio. k k 2 k 1 0 t 1 t 2 t9. The Cobb-Douglas production function is defined asY = F(N,K) = AN 1-θK θ.The marginal product of labor can then be derived asMPN = (∆Y)/(∆N) = (1 - θ)AN -θK θ = (1 - θ)AN 1-θK θ/N = = (1 - θ)(Y/N)==> labor's share of income = [MPN*(N)]/Y = (1 - θ)(Y/N)*[(N)/(Y)] = (1 - θ)。

湘潭大学宏观经济学课件(多恩布什第十版)-第3章修改版+第四章

0.08
0.10
0.06
0.08
0.04
0.06 0 100 200 300 400
0.02 0 2000 4000 6000
数据来源：《新中国50年统计资料汇编》和作者的计算
经济增长所要解决的核心问题

经济增长的引擎是什么？为什么经济体间存在收入差距？

贫穷经济体能否以及如何赶超富裕的经济体？
稳态中的产出增长率是外生的，在这种情况下它等于人口增长率n ，因而独立于储蓄率s 虽然储蓄率增加不影响稳态增长率，但是可以提高稳态增长水平

新古典经济增长模型重要结论

若允许生产率增长，并存在稳态增长率的话，可得出稳态增长率仍是外生的。稳态的人均收入增长率由技术进步率决定。总产出的稳态增长率是n+g
注数据来自Jones（1998），第42页；资本、劳动的收入份额是1/3：2/3。
索罗剩余

⊿Y/Y=[（1-θ）* ⊿N/N]+[θ*⊿K/K]+⊿A/A
⊿A/A= ⊿Y/Y-[（1-θ）* ⊿N/N]+[θ* ⊿K/K]
A的变化解释了所有非源于要Байду номын сангаас投入变化的生产率变化的，可以衡量技术进步
人均产出增长的核算
二、新古典模型的基本公式
2、基本公式的意义
▲资本存量的决定因素 ▲人均资本存量的变动量= 人均储蓄量-人均维持原装备水平所需资本
三、稳态均衡分析
1、稳态均衡的含义 ▲经济处于长期均衡状态 ▲人均经济变量保持不变 ∆y=∆k=0 ▲经济总量按照人口增长率n增加 ∆ Y/Y= ∆ K/K= ∆ N/N=n
1000
2.3 经济增长的典型事实之三

Chapter_13多恩布什第十版

•
Different MPC out of permanent income, transitory income, and wealth compared to the Keynesian theory with a single MPC
•
Key assumption: most people choose stable lifestyles, or smooth out consumption over their lifetime
$ 3 , 000
The
MPC out of transitory income is
13-10
Life Cycle Theory
•
•
•
The MPC out of permanent income is large The MPC out of transitory income is small and fairly close to zero The life-cycle theory implies that the MPC out of wealth should equal the MPC out of transitory income
•
The modern version of PILCH emphasizes the link between income uncertainty and changes in consumption and takes a more formal approach to consumer maximization
t t
13-6
Life Cycle Theory
•
The life cycle hypothesis views individuals as planning their consumption and savings behavior over long periods with the intention of allocating their consumption in the best possible way over their entire lifetimes

对外经济贸易大学金融学院金融组织学(金融风险管理)考博真题-参考书-分数线-复习方法-育明考博

对外经济贸易大学金融学院金融组织学（金融风险管理）考博指导与分析一、对外经济贸易大学金融学院考博资讯从2014年开始，除专职教师和专职科研人员外对外经济贸易大学不在招收以在职方式攻读的博士研究生，仅招收全日制脱产博士研究生，所有被录取的考生均须将档案迁入对外经济贸易大学管理。

本年度国际经济研究院拟录博士研究生5名，专业目录中各招生专业各方向所列招生人数均为初步意向人数，具体招生人数将根据生源状况确定，此数据仅供参考。

考试科目中，英语包括基础英语（占50%）和宏、微观经济学专业英语（占50%）；经济学基础包括中级宏、微观经济学（占70%）和数学（微积分和线性代数）（占30%）。

面试中现代金融理论的前沿问题(占60%)，前期研究成果(占40%)。

（一）考试科目及各方向导师：1.020204 金融学研究方向01：金融组织学（金融风险管理）。

导师是刘亚。

考试的科目：（1）1101英语（100%）。

（2）2201经济学基础（100%）。

（3）3321金融理论（100%）。

（二）复试须知1.复试方案：（1）坚持标准统一、程序公开、择优录取、宁缺毋滥的原则；（2）实行差额复试，按130%-150%的比例进行差额复试；总成绩=初试分数（满分300分）+专家组面试（满分100分）+导师对考生评价（满分100分）含专业素质40分，综合评价60分；专家组面试和导师对考生评价及格分均为60分。

（3）按总绩从高分到低分确定拟录取名单，报学校研究生招生领导小组审批。

2.复试内容：（1）所报研究方向的理论和实务；（2）英语问答，内容包括外语听力水平和口语水平测试；（3）前期科研成果，专业课和学术潜力。

3.考核方法：（1）考生介绍个人学习和工作情况，攻读博士期间的学术研究构想，时间不超过5 分钟；（2）考官根据考生的陈述提问，考生即问即答，时间不超过所5 分钟；（3）英语问答。

提问内容以学习和研究经历、某些相关的理论问题为主，时间不超过5分钟；（4）检查前期科研成果（包括公开发表的学术论文原件，国家级科研课题项目立项书，省部级纵向科研课题立项书）。

多恩布什宏观经济学ppt课件

一个国家或地区在一定时期内生产的所有最终商品和服务的市场价值总和。
国民收入（NI）
一个国家或地区在一定时期内，居民通过劳动所获得的收入总和。
国民生产总值（GNP）
一个国家或地区的居民在一定时期内生产的所有最终商品和服务的市场价值总和。
个人收入（PI）
居民个人从各种来源获得的收入总和，包括工资、租金、利息、利润等。
通货膨胀等。因此，政府需要合理控制债务规模，优化债务结构，降低
债务风险。
05 国际贸易与汇率制度
CHAPTER
国际贸易基本概念及理论
国际贸易定义
指不同国家（地区）之间商品和劳务的交换活动。
国际贸易理论
包括绝对优势理论、比较优势理论、要素禀赋理论等，解释国际贸易产生的原因和利益分配。
贸易政策
包括自由贸易政策和保护贸易政策，各国政府根据本国利益选择不同政策。
财政政策目标与工具
财政政策目标
包括经济增长、充分就业、物价稳定和国际收支平衡等宏观经济目标。
财政政策工具
主要包括税收、国债、政府投资和财政支出等，通过调整这些工具可以实现财政政策目标。
相机抉择的财政政策
指政府根据一定时期的经济社会状况，主动灵活地选择不同类型的反经济周期的财政政策工具，干预经济运行行为，实现财政政策目标。
国际收支平衡表内容
包括经常账户、资本与金融账户、错误与遗漏账户等。
国际收支平衡表解读方法
通过分析各项经济指标，了解一国对外经济往来的整体状况，评估汇率水平是否合理，预测未来经济走势。
06 宏观经济政策协调与效果评估
CHAPTER
宏观经济政策目标及工具选择
政策目标
经济增长、物价稳定、充分就业、国际收支平衡等

首都经济贸易大学经济增长与经济周期理论前沿考博真题主要导师内部资料

首都经济贸易大学经济增长与经济周期理论前沿考博真题主要导师内部资料一、专业的设置及招生计划学科、专业名称及研究方向指导教师招生计划0202应用经济学0202Z2增长经济学1（2人）1、经济增长与经济周期理论前沿张连城育明给出的是统考博士的招生方向、导师和人数，括号是本专业一共的招生人数，包括申请审核和硕博连读。

二、考试的科目及参考书（育明考博课程咨询186********(刘)或400-668-6978;扣扣：756.152.935;有售各院校真题）三、导师简介导师导师简介张连城女，汉族，中共党员。

1999年北京大学毕业，法学博士。

现为首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院副院长，教授,博士生导师，首都经济贸易大学人口经济研究所所长，《人口与经济》期刊主编，兼任中国人力资源开发研究会常务理事,中国人口学会理事、北京市人口学会副会长,中国人才测评分会副会长。

主要研究方向为：人口与资源环境可持续发展、人口经济学、就业与劳动力转移等。

（育明考博课程咨询186********(刘)或400-668-6978;扣扣：756.152.935;有售各院校真题）四、首都经济贸易大学考博英语复习指导首都经济贸易大学的考博英语满分100分，整体难度介于六级和老托福之间，对词汇量有很高的专业初试科目专业综合参考用书增长经济学(0202Z2)①外国语②经济学③增长经济学综合1、《中国经济增长与经济周期》（2013）/（2014），刘树成、张连城等，中国经济出版社，2013年、2014年。

2、《宏观经济学》第十版，多恩布什等，中国人民大学出版社，2010年。

3、近两年《经济研究》、《经济学动态》等重要期刊上的相关文献。

“经济学”考试科目指定参考书目如下：1、《政治经济学》（资本主义部分）第三版，张连城、马方方，经济日报出版社。

2、当年发布的中共中央关于经济问题的重要文件和《政府工作报告》。

3、《经济学教程（第三版）》，张连城，经济日报出版社。

Chapter_02National Income Accounting(宏观经济学,多恩布什,第十版)

2-4
From GDP to National Income
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Use the terms output and income interchangeably in macroeconomics, but are they really equivalent?
•
There are a few crucial distinctions between them:
2-1
Chapter 2
National Income Accounting
• • • • Item Item Item Etc.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Macroeconomics, 10e
© 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 2-2
• •
•
Ex. Social security, unemployment benefits Transfer payments are NOT included in GDP since not a part of current production Government expenditure = transfers + purchases
•
NX can be >, <, or = 0
•
2-10
Some Identities: A Simple Economy
•
• •
•
Assume national income equals GDP, and thus use terms income and output interchangeably (convenience) Begin with a simple economy: closed economy with no public sector output expressed as Y C I (4) Only two things can do with income: consume and save national income expressed as Y C S (5), where S is private savings I Y C S (6) Combine (4) and (5): C

中级宏观经济学教学大纲

《中级宏观经济学》教学大纲执笔人：何建春课程教学目的与要求：本课程是属于宏观经济的中级课程，主要面向本科专业高年级学生，要求选修的学生具有一定的经济学和经济数学基础。

通过本课程的学习，可以更好地理解和掌握现代宏观经济学的基本理论及研究方法，并用于观察、分析和解释宏观经济现象。

本课程在初级宏观经济学的基础上，着重介绍经济增长理论、开放宏观经济模型、宏观经济政策及制定，以及现代宏观经济学的微观基础。

一、教学内容与课时安排1.导论（3课时）1.1 宏观经济学的研究对象1.2 经济学家是如何思考的1.3 宏观经济学的数据2. 国民收入：源自何处，去向何方（3课时）2.1 社会总产出的决定因素2.2 国民收入的分配（要素价格的决定）2.3 产品与服务市场的均衡3. 货币与通货膨胀（3课时）3.1 货币数量论3.2 货币铸造税3.3 通货膨胀与利率3.4 名义利率与货币需求3.5 通货膨胀的社会成本4. 开放经济（3课时）4.1 资本和产品的国际流动4.2 小型开放经济中的储蓄与投资4.3 汇率5. 经济增长理论：超长期中的经济（6课时）5.1 经济增长：资本积累与人口增长5.2 经济增长：技术、经验和政策5.3 超越索洛模型：内生增长理论6. 经济波动导论（3课时）6.1 关于经济周期的事实6.2 对IS—LM模型的回顾6.3 稳定化政策7. 蒙代尔—弗莱明模型与汇率（6课时）7.1 蒙代尔—弗莱明模型7.2 浮动汇率下的小型开放经济7.3 固定汇率下的小型开放经济7.4 汇率应该浮动还是固定？7.5 价格水平变动的蒙代尔—弗莱明模型8. 总供给：通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡（3课时）8.1 总供给的基本理论8.2 通货膨胀、失业和菲利普斯曲线8.3 菲利普斯曲线的变异9. 总供给和总需求的动态模型（3课时）9.1 模型的要素9.2 模型的求解9.3 基本结论及政策建议10. 稳定化政策（3课时）10.1 经济政策应该对经济稳定发挥什么样的作用10.2 经济政策制定的规则：按规则实施还是相机抉择10.3 结论：在一个不确定的世界中制定政策11 政府债务与预算赤字（3课时）11.1 政策债务的规模与衡量11.2 传统的政府债务的观点11.3 李嘉图学派的政府债务的观点11.4 其他学派关于政府债务的观点12 宏观经济学的微观基础（6课时）12.1 消费理论12.2 投资理论12.3 货币供给、货币需求与银行体系13 总复习与答疑（3课时）二、教材与参考资料（一）教材曼昆：宏观经济学（第七版），中国人民大学出版社，2012中文版（二）参考资料1.布兰查德：宏观经济学（第四版）清华大学出版社，2011中文版2.多恩布什等：宏观经济学（第十版），中国人民大学出版社3.巴罗：宏观经济学：现代观点，格致出版社，2008中文版4.萨克斯：全球视角的宏观经济学，上海三联书店，1997中文版5.霍华德：现代宏观经济学：起源、发展与现状，凤凰传媒出版社，2009中文版三、考试与成绩评定本课程采用闭卷考试，其中卷面成绩占80%，平时成绩占20%。

(完整版)多恩布什宏观经济学第十版课后答案

宏观经济学第二章概念题1．如果政府雇用失业工人，他们曾领取TR美元的失业救济金，现在他们作为政府雇员支取TR美元，不做任何工作，GDP会发生什么情况？请解释。

答：国内生产总值指一个国家（地区）领土范围，本国（地区）居民和外国居民在一定时期内所生产和提供的最终使用的产品和劳务的价值。

用支出法计算的国内生产总值等于消费C、投资I、政府支出G和净出口NX之和。

从支出法核算角度看：C、I、NX保持不变，由于转移支付TR美元变成了政府对劳务的购买即政府支出增加，使得G增加了TR美元，GDP会由于G的增加而增加。

2．GDP和GNP有什么区别？用于计算收入/产量是否一个比另一个更好呢？为什么？答：（1）GNP和GDP的区别GNP指在一定时期内一国或地区的国民所拥有的生产要素所生产的全部最终产品（物品和劳务）的市场价值的总和。

它是本国国民生产的最终产品市场价值的总和，是一个国民概念，即无论劳动力和其他生产要素处于国内还是国外，只要本国国民生产的产品和劳务的价值都记入国民生产总值。

GDP指一定时期内一国或地区所拥有的生产要素所生产的全部最终产品（物品和劳务）的市场价值的总和。

它是一国范围内生产的最终产品，是一个地域概念。

两者的区别：在经济封闭的国家或地区，国民生产总值等于国内生产总值；在经济开放的国家或地区，国民生产总值等于国内生产总值加上国外净要素收入。

两者的关系可以表示为：GNP=GDP+[本国生产要素在其他国家获得的收入（投资利润、劳务收入）-外国生产要素从本国获得的收入]。

（2）使用GDP比使用GNP用于计量产出会更好一些，原因如下：1）从精确度角度看，GDP的精确度高；2）GDP衡量综合国力时，比GNP好；3）相对于GNP而言，GDP是对经济中就业潜力的一个较好的衡量指标。

由于美国经济中GDP和GNP的差异非常小，所以在分析美国经济时，使用这两种的任何一个指标，造成的差异都不会大。

但对于其他有些国家的经济来说明，这个差别是相当大的，因此，使用GDP作为衡量指标会更好。

2024版宏观经济学多恩布什第十版ppt课件

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失业、通货膨胀与货币政策
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失业类型、原因及影响分析
摩擦性失业
由于劳动力市场供需不匹配造成的短期失业。
结构性失业
由于经济结构变化导致某些行业或地区就业机会减少的长期失业。
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失业类型、原因及影响分析
• 周期性失业：与经济周期波动相关的失业，通常在经济衰退时上升，经济复苏时下降。
国际贸易实践
分析国际贸易的现状、趋势和问题，如贸易保护主义、贸易摩擦等。
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国际金融市场运行规律和风险防范
国际金融市场概述
介绍国际金融市场的构成、功能和运行规律。
国际金融风险
分析汇率风险、信用风险、流动性风险等国际金融风险的来源和影响。
风险防范与管理
探讨国际金融风险防范和管理的策略和方法，如风险识别、评估和控制。
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宏观经济学研究方法与工具
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研究方法
宏观经济学采用实证分析和规范分析相结合的方法，既研究经济现象“是什么”的问题，也探讨经济运行“应该是什么”的问题。
研究工具
宏观经济学运用大量的经济模型、图表和数学公式等分析工具，来研究和分析宏观经济现象及其运行规律。
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技术进步是提高生产率和经济增长的重要途径。通过加强科技创新、促进科技成果转化、培养高素质人才等方式，可以推动技术进步和经济增长。
制度创新是经济增长的重要保障。通过深化经济体制改革、完善市场体系、加强法治建设等方式，可以推动制度创新和经济增长。
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经济发展战略和政策选择
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英语语法实践指南第十版电子版pdf

英语语法实践指南第十版电子版pdfEnglish grammar is a fundamental aspect of language proficiency, and the ability to effectively communicate in English often hinges on a solid understanding of its grammatical principles. The English Grammar Practice Guide 10th Edition Electronic Version PDF is a comprehensive resource that provides in-depth coverage of the essential elements of English grammar, offering learners the opportunity to enhance their language skills through practical exercises and real-world examples.One of the key strengths of this guide is its structured approach to teaching grammar. The text is organized into clearly defined chapters, each focusing on a specific grammatical concept, such as parts of speech, sentence structure, verb tenses, and modifiers. This systematic layout allows learners to easily navigate the content and focus on the areas they need to improve, whether they are beginners or more advanced students.The guide's electronic format also offers several advantages. Firstly, the PDF format ensures that the content is easily accessible and canbe used on a variety of devices, from laptops to smartphones, making it a convenient resource for on-the-go learning. Additionally, the electronic version often includes interactive features, such as hyperlinks and embedded audio or video examples, which can enhance the learning experience and make the content more engaging and dynamic.Another notable aspect of the English Grammar Practice Guide 10th Edition Electronic Version PDF is its emphasis on practical application. Rather than simply presenting grammatical rules in isolation, the guide provides numerous exercises and practice activities that allow learners to apply their knowledge in real-world contexts. This hands-on approach helps to reinforce the concepts and ensures that learners can confidently utilize their grammar skills in various communication scenarios.The guide's comprehensive coverage of English grammar is another key strength. It delves into the nuances of the language, addressing topics such as subject-verb agreement, pronoun usage, prepositions, and more. This level of detail ensures that learners can develop a deep understanding of the grammar system, enabling them to communicate with greater precision and clarity.One of the particularly useful features of the guide is its inclusion of common grammatical errors and how to avoid them. By highlightingcommon pitfalls and providing strategies for correcting them, the guide empowers learners to identify and rectify their own grammatical mistakes, ultimately improving their overall language proficiency.Furthermore, the guide's electronic format allows for seamless updates and revisions, ensuring that the content remains current and relevant. As the English language evolves, the guide can be easily updated to reflect the latest grammatical conventions and usage patterns, making it a valuable resource that keeps pace with the changing landscape of the language.In conclusion, the English Grammar Practice Guide 10th Edition Electronic Version PDF is a comprehensive and practical resource that can greatly benefit learners of all levels. Its structured approach, interactive features, and emphasis on practical application make it an invaluable tool for anyone seeking to enhance their English grammar skills and improve their overall language proficiency. Whether you are a student, a professional, or simply someone who wants to sharpen their communication abilities, this guide is a must-have resource that can help you achieve your language learning goals.。

多恩布什第十六章、联邦储备、货币与信用

多恩布什的理论背景
20世纪70年代的滞胀
多恩布什的理论是在20世纪70年代滞胀背景下形成的，当时美国经济面临着高通胀、高失业率以及低增长的困境。
宏观经济学的发展
多恩布什的理论吸收了当时宏观经济学的研究成果，特别是货币主义和菲利普斯曲线的观点。
多恩布什的理论内容
1 2 3
ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้汇率决定
多恩布什认为汇率是由货币市场均衡决定的，而货币市场均衡则是由国内外利率差异决定的。
多恩布什第十六章、联邦储备、货币与信用
REPORTING
https://
目录
• 多恩布什的理论概述 • 联邦储备系统 • 货币与信用 • 多恩布什的理论与联邦储备系统、货币与信
用的关系 • 结论
PART 01
多恩布什的理论概述
REPORTING
WENKU DESIGN
货币与信用
随着数字货币和区块链技术的发展，货币和信用的形式将发生深刻变化。未来，货币和信用可能会更加去中心化，同时也将带来新的挑战和机遇。
对未来研究的建议
深入研究数字货币和区块链技术对经济的影响
随着数字货币和区块链技术的快速发展，它们对经济的影响将越来越重要。未来研究应深入探讨这些新技术如何改变货币和信用的本质，以及它们对经济的影响。
贴现率
Fed设定贴现率，向需要额外流动性的银行提供贷款的利率。
货币政策目标
Fed的主要目标是维持物价稳定、促进经济增长和保持金融市场稳定。在实现这些目标的过程中，Fed会综合考虑经济增长、通胀和就业等经济指标。
PART 03
货币与信用
REPORTING
WENKU DESIGN
货币的定义与功能

DornbuschovershootingModel多恩布什超调模型

M (i,i f ,e)W N p (i,i f ,e)W eFp (i,i f ,e)W 1 • 汇率的变动通过影响私人部门对财富的重新估价（因为汇率的变动印象以本国货币表示的国外资产额），起着平衡资产供求存量的作用。均衡汇率正是使私人部门意愿持有现有国内外各种资产存量的汇率水平。
• 但汇率超调模式也存在不足之处：
– 它将汇率波动完全归因于货币市场的失衡，而否认商品市场上的实际冲击对汇率的影响，未免有失偏颇。
– 它假定国内外资产具有完全的替代性。事实上，由于交易成本、赋税待遇和各种风险的不同，各国资产之间的替代性远远还没有达到可视为一种资产的程度。
第10页/共22页
一、超调模型的基本假定
• “超调模型”（overshooting model)：汇率的粘性价格货币分析法的简称。
• 与货币模型相同，超调模型也认为货币需求是稳定的，非套补利率平价成立。
• 与货币模型不同，超调模型认为商品市场价格存在粘性。并且：第一，购买力平价在短期不成立，在长期成立。第二，总供给曲线在不同的时期内有不同的形状，短期水平，中期向右上方倾斜，长期垂直。（p173图6-2）
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• 我们看一看资产市场的各种失衡是如何影响汇率变动：
•
+ ++- +
e e(i f , N , M , F,e)
• 但这一模式也存在一些不足：商品市场的失衡如何影响汇率，没有纳入其分析中；它用
财富总额代替收入作为影响资产组合的因素，而又没有说明实际收入对财富总额的影响。
在短期内，总供给曲线是水平的，价格水平不发生调整，货币供给的一次性增加只是造成本国利率的下降，本币汇率的贬值超过长期平衡水平，本国产出超过充分就业水平。