国际金融第六章课件

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Floating exchange rate
Government policy lets the market determine the exchange rate, the rate is free to go wherever the market equilibrium is at that time.
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Types of fixed exchange rate
• Adjustable peg：可调整的钉住汇率 可调整的钉住汇率 The government may try to keep the value fixed for long periods of time. But in the face of a substantial or “fundamental” disequilibrium in the country’s international position, the government may change the pegged-rate value. Figure 6.9 p125
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Cont’d
Types of floating exchange rate: • Clean float 清洁浮动 The government permits private market demand and supply to set the exchange rate with no direct involvement by government officials. Such as: United states, Canada, Japan
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我国外汇储备占全球比重近三成 连续 四年居第一
• 中国2009年外汇储备余额突破两万亿美 元，达到2.399万亿美元。中国外储占全 球储备比重达到30.7%。 • 报道称，全球经济在2009年逐步恢复， 各国外汇储备亦显著回升。根据调查， 在全球十大储备国家中，亚洲地区占有 七席。
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Clean float Floating exchange rate: Managed float (dirty float) Adjustable peg Fixed exchange rate (pegged exchange rate):
Crawling peg
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When to change the pegged rate? Choice of the width of the allowable band is closely related to the issue of when to change the rate.
A ready-made basket
Special drawing right (SDR) 特别提款权－－ US dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, British pound
12Fra Baidu bibliotek
特别提款权（special drawing right,SDR) 是国际货币基金组织创设的一种储备资产和 记账单位，亦称“纸黄金(Paper Gold)”。它 是基金组织分配给会员国的一种使用资金的 权利。会员国在发生国际收支逆差时，可用 它向基金组织指定的其他会员国换取外汇， 以偿付国际收支逆差，还可与黄金、自由兑 换货币一样充当国际储备。但由于其只是一 种记帐单位，不是真正货币，使用时必须先 换成其他货币，不能直接用于贸易或非贸易 的支付。
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Cont’d
Exchange controls The country’s government places some restrictions on use of the foreign exchange market. (e.g. for all payments for exports and imports or capital controls).
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Cont’d
Where does the monetary authority get the dollars to sell? • Uses its own official international reserve assets —safe, highly liquid interest-earning debt securities such as government bonds.
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Cont’d
• Managed float (dirty float)
管理浮动（肮脏浮动） The government officials do intervene at times to try to influence the exchange rate, which otherwise is driven by private demand and supply. Such as: India, Singapore
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2005年7月21日，中国人民银行宣布：我国 开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进 行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，并让人民币对 美元升值2%。 就一篮子货币而言，是按照我国对外经济发 展的实际情况，选择若干种主要货币，赋予相应 的权重，组成一个货币篮子。这里不仅有币种问 题，更重要的是有权重问题。即使央行公布了其 中币种的构成，但权重还是保密。参考一篮子表 明外币之间的汇率变化会影响人民币汇率，但参 考一篮子不等于盯住一篮子货币，它还需要将市 场供求关系作为另一重要依据，据此形成有管理 的浮动汇率。
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How to defend the fixed rate?
• Official intervention by the government buying or selling currencies • Exchange control (tariffs, quotas etc.) • Altering domestic interest rates • Macroeconomic adjustment—fiscal or monetary policy To surrender rather than defend: • Altering its fixed rate or switch to a floating exchange rate
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Fixed Exchange Rate
The government sets the exchange rate that it wants, often some flexibility is permitted within a range, called a band, around the chosen fixed rate, called the par value or central value.
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Cont’d
Official intervention: Monetary authority enters the foreign exchange market to buy or sell foreign currency.
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在现行的国际货币制度下，大部分国 家实行的都是有管理的浮动汇率制度。有 管理的浮动汇率是以外汇市场供求为基础 的，是浮动的，不是固定的；它与清洁浮 动汇率的区别在于它受到宏观调控的管理 ，即货币当局根据外汇市场形成的价格来 公布汇率，允许其在规定的浮动幅度内上 下浮动。一旦汇率浮动超过规定的幅度， 货币当局就会进入市场买卖外汇，维持汇 率的合理和相对稳定。
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What to fix to?
• Gold (a century ago) • U.S. dollar (since the end of World War II) p100 • A number of other foreign currencies Basket of foreign currencies：一篮子货币
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Cont’d
• Crawling peg 爬行钉住汇率 The peg value is changed often (for instance, monthly) according to a set of indicators or according to the judgment of the government monetary authority. Figure 6.9 p125
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Defense through official intervention p103 Defending against depreciation Figure 6.1
Official par value of a Latin America country: 25 pesos/$ Market price: 28 pesos /$ Band: 24 pesos /$ to 26 pesos/$ To keep the rate at 26 pesos /$, the government sells $ (3 billion) and buys pesos (78 billion).
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When to change the fixed rate?
• Never (not credible) • Seldom (adjustable peg) • Often (crawling peg)
We often use pegged exchange rate in place of fixed exchange rate
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Figure 6.1 Intervention to Prevent Depreciation
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This intervention is reflected in the country’s balance of payments.
---the strong demand for dollars…...(at 26 pesos/$ ) To purchase foreign goods, services and financial assets Result of intervention (selling dollars) : --providing foreign exchange to buy more than selling to --official settlement balance deficit. p23
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Two aspects: rate flexibility and restrictions on use
Two aspects: • The choice between a floating exchange rate and a fixed exchange rate. • Restrictions (if any) on the use of the foreign exchange market. These restrictions are generally called exchange controls (外 汇控制)。
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The Reasons for Intervention
－to reduce variability in exchange rates； －to keep the exchange value of its currency either high or low ； －to raise national pride in a steady or strong currency.
CHAPTER 6
Government Policies toward the Foreign Exchange Market
Framework of this chapter
1. Possible government policies toward the foreign exchange market.政府对外汇市 场的政策。 2. Official intervention on this market and restrictions.对市场的官方干预和限制。 3. Lessons of history of exchange rate system. 汇率体制的历史教训。