日元贬值对中国商品市场的影响研究-郑英宰

日元贬值对中国商品市场的影响研究–基于船舶、钢铁、汽车零件行业

Study on the depreciation of the yen impacet to the chineses commodity market based on steel, auto parts, ship building industry

郑英宰Jung，young·jae

中国山东大学经济研究中心，博士研究生

Since 2008 the world financial crisis, implemented by the America government monetary payment policy has brought increased liquidity, but the decline in the dollar value of the decline of the export competitiveness of the countries all over the world, especially since 1980, Japan's economy is facing difficulties great, plus American monetary easing, the Japanese economy and more faded. Since 2012 October the Japanese far right parties, Liberal Democrat Andouble government came to power, the Japanese government yen devaluation, depreciation of the yen to Japanese economic recovery, but the Asian countries has been on the Japanese export oriented development mode, and the types of export commodities are more or less the same, therefore, the depreciation of the yen after Japan's exports have the great competitiveness, but at the same time the rest of Asia's export competitiveness has declined. The yen short-term the biggest damage country is South Korea, then China, but the total economic China than South Korea, namely the yen's depreciation on Chinese is very large, especially Chinese ships, iron and steel, auto parts and other heavy industry. Chinese are developing countries, the developing countries China heavy industry development is essential in its economic growth on the road, the developed countries of western countries and Japan have to rely on the development of heavy industry, heavy industry development level decides the development level of a country, RMB appreciation has lasted one and a half years, from a in the short term, has little effect on the Chinese economy. To observe effects of yen depreciation consequences, and through this thesis research the effect of the devaluation of the yen Chinese industry and explore the impact of future devaluation of the yen Chinese.

Key words : yen, depreciation, commodity market, steel, auto parts, ship building

目次

序言

一、日元贬值的背景和对中国市场的影响

二、日元贬值对中国船舶行业的影响

三、日元贬值对中国钢铁行业的影响

四、日元贬值对中国汽车零件行业的影响

五、结论

序言

从2008年美国开始的世界金融危机以来，由美国政府实行的货币款政策带来了流动性的增加，但是美元价值的下降导致世界各国的出口竞争力的下降，尤其是1980年以来，日本的经济面临巨大的困境，加上美国的货币宽松政策，日本景气越来越褪色。自2012年10

月日本的极右党派自由民主党的安倍政府上台之后，日本政府实行日元贬值政策，日元贬值的目的是为了日本经济的回升，但是亚洲各国一直以来靠日式出口型模式发展，而且出口商品的种类也大同小异，因此，日元贬值后日本的出口品就具有了极大的竞争力，但与此同时亚洲其他各国的出口竞争力却逐渐下降。日元贬值短期内最大的受损国家是韩国，其次中国，但是中国的经济总量远大于韩国，也就是说日元的贬值对中国的影响非常大，尤其是中国的船舶、钢铁、汽车零件等重工业行业。中国是发展中国家，对发展中国家的中国来说重工业的发展在其经济成长的路程上是必不可少的，西方国家和日本等发达国家都依靠重工业发展，重工业的发展程度决定一个国家的发展水平，日元贬值已持续了一年半的时间，从一年的短期来看，对中国经济的影响不大。继续观察日元贬值后果的影响，并通过此论文研究目前日元贬值对中国产业的影响和探讨未来日元贬值对中国的影响

一、日元贬值的背景和对中国市场的影响

日本经济80年代房地产泡沫消失之后，多年面临通话紧缩的困难，为了突破此局面，日本政府开始实施日本汇率贬值

日本的经济在20多年时间里遭遇就业率下降，出口盈利减少的困境，这导致国家成长率滞留及其负增长，失业率的上升与政府的统治使得国家方面发生了极大地问题，由于日本政府成员的不断交换，日本自由民主党和民主党此两党的持权交换政权是日本国内的矛盾和令其不协调的导火索。