经济学人中英对照23

《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版
Translated From 《The Economist》,By ecocn team
古巴:总司令的最后行动2008-03-05[2008.2.23]Cuba-The comandante's last move 总司令的最后行动
Cuba 古巴

The comandante's last move 总司令的最后行动
Feb 21st 2008 | HAVANA 写于2008年2月21日 古巴首都哈瓦那
From The Economist print edition 摘自经济学人杂志印刷版

Fidel Castro has stepped down as president. But the changes that Cubans yearn for will be slow and stealthy while he remains alive
菲德尔?卡斯特罗已经退下总统职位。但是，只要卡斯特罗还活着，那么古巴人强烈渴望的变革仍会放缓并在低调中进行


AP 美联社供图

HALFWAY along Calle Obispo, a long street that links the restored colonial splendours of Old Havana to the crumbling tenements of the 19th-century city, a large red placard shouts its defiance in lime-green lettering in an arresting mixture of Spanish and English. “No hay tregua, compay! You understand: No Truce. Sr Bush: este pueblo no puede ser enga?ado ni comprado.” (“Mr Bush: this people cannot be deceived nor bought.”)
在长长的主教大街，你能欣赏到哈瓦那老城重建后的殖民风采，也能目睹19世纪城市的破旧房屋。而今，在这条大街的中心区域，一张大的红色布告牌上用醒目的浅黄绿色的字母写下了西班牙语-英语的条幅，并让路人感到了它那狂怒的反抗。“你懂吗：我们不休战!(No hay tregua, compay!)。(布什先生：你没法欺骗我们的人民，也买通不了我们(Sr Bush: este pueblo no puede ser enga?ado ni comprador)。

The placard advertises the museum of the Committees for the Defence of the Revolution (CDRs), the neighbourhood groups set up by Fidel Castro in 1960 to be the grass roots of his revolution, to organise services but also to inform the newly installed Communist-run state of dissent or subversion. The museum contains glass cases of revolutionary memorabilia. On the walls are blown-up extracts from Mr Castro's speeches, and a chart showing the growth of membership in the CDRs, which in 2007 reached 8.4m of Cuba's 11m people. The highlight, on the first floor, is a scale model in plaster of a typical Cuban street, the houses fronted with the Greek-revival columns that past sugar wealth bequeathed, the fa?ades painted in turn in shocking pink, lime green, toothpaste blue, peach and lemon.
布告上广告着古巴革命防御各级委员会(CDRs)的博物馆，这些委员会是由菲德尔?卡斯特罗在1960年建立起来的社区团体，以作为他的革命的基层组织。建立广告的目的在于安排各项社会服务，并告知新近建立起的共产主义路线的异己省份或反叛省份。博物馆里摆设着一些陈列革命大事记的玻璃橱柜。在博物馆的室内的墙上贴着一些用放大的字体摘录的卡斯特罗演讲，并且还有一张

显示革命防御各级委员会的成员加入趋势的图表。2007年，这些委员会的成员增加到了 840万古巴人，而全国总人数仅有1100万。博物馆内一楼有一处显眼的物品，那就是一条用石膏制作而成的一些几何模型，其中包括了一条具有古巴特色的街道，一些前门有着希腊复古风格石柱的房屋…，以及一些依次以显眼的粉色、黄绿色、牙膏蓝、桃色与柠檬色粉刷的各个房屋的正面。

It is a remarkable exhibit of revolutionary kitsch. The museum is new, inaugurated on September 28th 2007. Yet on a recent Saturday afternoon it was empty; not one person among the throngs of Cubans and tourists strolling down Calle Obispo felt inspired to cross its threshold. With the mixture of friendly warmth and necessary opportunism that characterises Cubans nowadays, one of the bored women attendants was soon asking your correspondent's wife if she could spare a packet of antacids (“medicines are very scarce”).
这个革命遗留物品的展览是非同寻常的。博物馆是新建成的——2007年9月28日完成的落成仪式。然而，在最近一个周六的下午，博物馆却空无一人；在主教大街漫步的古巴人以及国外游客的人群中没有一人想着要进入博物馆。如今的古巴人的性格里混杂着友好热情与绝对必要的机会主义，而不一会博物馆里那些无聊的女服务员中就会很快走出一名，来问我们的随行记者的妻子能不能给她一包抗酸剂（她会说，“药物在古巴非常稀少”）。

Mr Castro, ailing and aged 81, this week announced his retirement from the posts of Cuba's president and its “commander in chief”. But his revolution has long since become a shell, a work of theatre in which the old trouper rants on even as many in the bored audience desperately want to slip away—if only they could. As the curtain comes down on Mr Castro's 49 years of rule, change is inevitable. But of what kind and at what pace is far less clear.
老卡斯特罗今年81岁，身体状况不佳，他在本周宣布了他的退休——不再担任古巴的总统与“总司令”。但是他的革命事业很久以前就已经成了古巴人民身上脱不掉的甲壳——甚是一种戏院舞台作品，经验老道的戏子还是激情高昂地进行着演说，甚至许多感到无聊的观众已经想着要开溜——如果他们能开溜的话！随着老卡斯特罗49年统治的帷幕落下，古巴的社会变革是必然的。但是，变革的速度如何还远不清楚。

It was ill-health and impending mortality, not any sense of failure or repudiation, that obliged Mr Castro to issue his statement that he would not seek to retain his posts. In July 2006, facing abdominal surgery, he turned over his powers to his brother, Raúl Castro. Since then he has not appeared in public. Photographs suggest that while he has been convalescing he remains ext

remely frail. In November he allowed his name to go forward as a candidate for the National Assembly. But this week he said: “it would be a betrayal of my conscience to accept a responsibility requiring more mobility and dedication than I am physically able to offer.”
老卡斯特罗不得不签署不再担任现任职位的文件，其原因是身体欠佳，以及年岁过大，而不是自己感到了失败或受到了别人的批判。在2006年7月，老卡斯特罗接受了腹部外科手术，当时他就把权力移交给了其弟劳尔?卡斯特罗。自那以后，老卡斯特罗就没有公开露面。一些图片表明，老卡斯特罗的身体在渐渐康复，但仍非常虚弱。同年11月，他允许自己的名字能被列入国家议会的候选人名单。但是，他在本周讲道，“如果我接受了这个需要活动能力与奉献的职位，那就是我良心上的背叛，因为我的身体无法让我完成这些。”

On February 24th the new assembly is due to meet to unveil the Council of State, and thus Cuba's president and its other top officials. The council's members will be picked by the Castro brothers and a handful of senior advisers. Most Cuba-watchers expect Raúl Castro to be confirmed as the new president. Since Raúl is himself aged 76, a bolder move would be to hand the top job to Carlos Lage, a 56-year-old doctor who is the number three in the hierarchy.
今年2月24日，新的内阁议会预计开展会议来公布国家议会成员，以及古巴总统与总统的其他高级官员。议会成员将由卡斯特罗兄弟与少数几位高级顾问来选定。多数的古巴观察家都期待劳尔?卡斯特罗能被定为古巴的新总统。由于劳尔自己也已经76岁，因此一个更大胆的做法则是将最高职位授予56岁的医生卡洛斯?雷吉（Carlos Lage），他在统治集团中排名第三。

Cuban officials see it as a triumph of their revolution—and a defeat for the United States—that power is being transferred peacefully and in an orderly manner within the regime. Once again, they have confounded those outside Cuba who have so often predicted the revolution's demise. Yet the country that Fidel Castro is bequeathing to his successors is discontented and all but bankrupt. The undoubted costs imposed by the American economic embargo pale beside self-inflicted problems.
古巴官员将这看作是他们革命事业的胜利——而且还是美国的失败，因为权力被和平地移交了，并且是在古巴政权内以一种有秩序的方式移交的。古巴官员再一次地让那些外国人大为惊讶，这些人经常会预测革命会面临终结。然而，老卡斯特罗遗留给接任者的古巴国却是令人不满的，而且几乎处于经济崩溃的边缘。除了古巴自身造成的问题，美国实施的经济制裁所引发的确实无疑的代价让古巴大伤元气。

When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba lost the patron, p

rotector and paymaster that had allowed Mr Castro's Communist regime to survive the United States' embargo and its persistent efforts to kill or topple him. Cuba's economy shrank by around 35% between 1989 and 1993. Many outsiders expected Mr Castro swiftly to go the way of the Berlin Wall.
前苏联瓦解之时，古巴失去了一位赞助人、保护人与买单人，他让老卡斯特罗的政权经受住了美国实施的经济制裁以及美国持续杀害或颠覆他的种种做法。1989年到1993年间，古巴经济萎缩了大约35%。许多国外观察家也都曾期待老卡斯特罗能步德国柏林墙之后尘。

He responded by declaring a “Special Period” involving a mixture of drastic austerity and pragmatic economic reform. His government encouraged mass tourism and foreign investment, mainly in hotels, nickel mines, telecoms and oil exploration. It allowed farmers markets, to supplement the meagre official rations, and, for the first time since the 1960s, licensed family businesses such as restaurants (known as paladares) or plumbers and electricians. It also legalised the use of the dollar, tapping a new source of hard currency in the form of remittances from the million or more Cuban-Americans. State companies were given more freedom to run themselves.
老卡斯特罗却反其道而行，他宣布古巴进入一个“特别时期”，在这个时期里古巴人民要大力发扬勤俭节约的优良作风，而且政府还出炉了一个务实的经济改革。老卡斯特罗的政府促进了旅游业大力发展，以及外资的大量涌入，主要在旅馆行业、镍矿、电信以及原油开采。这项经济改革让农业市场补充了政府贫瘠的配额，而且自20世纪60年代以来它首次为家庭商业颁发许可证，其中涉及餐厅（当地叫做paladares）或水管工人和电工。该措施还让美元能够合法流通，通过接收超过百万古巴籍美国人的电汇而获得强硬货币的一种新渠道。国有企业更是获得自主经营的更多自由权。

Chávez replaces the Soviet Union
查韦斯取代前苏联

These measures, implemented by Mr Lage and a group of reformist economists, stabilised the economy and saw a modest return to growth. But they brought rising inequality to Cuban society, and undermined party control. In 1996 Mr Castro halted the reforms. Finally, in 2004 he declared the Special Period over and rolled back some of the changes. The dollar was replaced by the “convertible peso” commonly known as a CUC and now valued at $1.08. The welcome for foreign investment became more selective; many small businesses had their licences withdrawn.
这些由雷吉先生与一群改革派经济学家施行的改革措施稳定了古巴经济，并且让古巴经济增长得到一定的回升。但是，他们让古巴社会中存在的不平等现象增多，而且还削弱了政党的控制权力。1996年，老卡斯特罗停止了改革的进

程。最终在2004年，老卡斯特罗宣布了“特别时期”结束，并放缓了变革的进程。美元被 “可自由兑换的比索”而取代，人们普遍地称这种新货币为CUC，而且现在的价值为1.08美元。古巴对外国投资也变得有选择性，许多小商业公司也被撤销了经营许可证。



Along with counter-reform came a political crackdown. The few dissidents on the island, supported by the United States but infiltrated by the Cuban security services, pose no threat to Mr Castro. Not so the Varela Project, a push for constitutional change led by Oswaldo Payá, a Christian democrat. The project gathered 11,000 signatures for a petition handed in to the National Assembly urging changes to the 1976 constitution to allow free elections and civil and political rights. Unlike the dissidents, Mr Payá opposes the American economic embargo and refuses help from American diplomats.
随着反改革的发展，古巴出现了一个政治镇压。古巴岛上极少数异己已对老卡斯特罗造成不了任何威胁，而他们是由美国支持的，但里面混入了古巴安全机构的情报员。Varela计划也没有成气候，这是一个由基督教民主人士奥斯瓦德?帕亚（Oswaldo Payá）领导的旨在推进宪法变革的方案。该方案在一份呈递给国家议会的请愿书上汇集了11,000个公民签名，目的在于促使对1976年的宪法进行修订，以允许自由选举以及授予公民民权与政治权力。帕亚先生与古巴异己份子不同，他反对美国实施的经济制裁，并拒绝美国外交官提供的援助。

Mr Castro reached for his sledgehammer. He organised a referendum to approve a constitutional change declaring socialism “irrevocable”. And in March 2003, while the world was distracted by the American invasion of Iraq, the government arrested 75 opponents, most associated with the Varela Project, and in summary trials sentenced them to long prison terms. When coincidentally three Cubans hijacked a ferry in a desperate attempt to get to Florida, they were executed.
为此，老卡斯特罗采取了强硬对策。他组织了一次公民投票来批准一项宪法修订，即宣布社会主义是“不可撤销的”。而在2003年3月，政党全世界被美国入侵伊拉克而分神时，古巴政府逮捕了75位反对者，其中多数都参与了Varela方案，而且在终审中判决了这些人长期监禁。而与此同时，三名古巴人玩命式地劫持了一艘渡船以到达美国佛罗里达州被逮捕后，他们被处于了死刑。

Cuba's shuffle towards the market was far more timid than the bold steps taken by China or Vietnam. Mr Castro felt able to retreat from it because new allies appeared. Venezuela's Hugo Chávez has gone some way towards replacing Cuba's lost Soviet sponsor. Under a web of barter deals, up to 20,000 Cuban doctors, sports trainers and security specialists work in Venezuela; in retur

n Mr Chávez has provided the island with 92,000 barrels per day of oil, and with other aid worth some $800m in 2006 and $1.5 billion in 2007, according to a recent book by Germán Sánchez, Cuba's ambassador in Caracas.
古巴慢慢对市场的干预非常小心翼翼，远不如中国或越南采取的大胆措施。老卡斯特罗感觉能够不用介入市场，因为一些新的盟友出现了。委内瑞拉的总统乌戈?查韦斯（Hugo Chávez）在替代已不在的古巴前赞助者前苏联上花费了不少了心思。在物品交易的大流中，在委内瑞拉工作的古巴医生、体育训练师与安全专家已经达到了2万人；而作为对古巴的回报，查韦斯总统已经为古巴提供了很多援助，如每天提供92,000桶原油，2006年提供价值8亿美元的其它援助，而在2007年提供的其它援助则达到了15亿美元——这是古巴驻加拉加斯的大使Germán Sánchez最近撰写的书里提供的数据。

With Naomi Campbell, a British fashion model, in tow Mr Chávez turned up in November to inaugurate a mothballed Soviet-era oil refinery near the southern city of Cienfuegos, completed with Venezuelan money. He also paid for 100 three-room houses for the refinery workers, and has offered aid to restart defunct industrial plants, such as a rusting fertiliser factory near the refinery.
在英国时装模特纳奥米?坎贝尔（Naomi Campbell）的陪同下，查韦斯在去年11月出现在古巴南部城市辛菲哥斯（Cienfuegos）附近的一个备用的苏联时代的炼油厂的建成仪式上—— 是用委内瑞拉的钱建成的。查韦斯总统还为炼油厂的工人们买下了100套三房套间，而且还提供了援助来重新启用那些废弃的工业工厂，如炼油厂附近的一个荒废的肥料制造工厂。

Venezuelan aid has boosted economic growth (see chart 1). It has also allowed the government to overhaul the electricity system (as well as replacing 52m incandescent light bulbs with energy-saving ones). A few years ago, power cuts were frequent and lengthy; now they are rare. Along with Venezuelan aid has come Chinese credit. Cuba is gradually augmenting its fleet of thirsty Soviet buses and trucks with new, more fuel-efficient Chinese models.
据统计，委内瑞拉提供的援助已经让古巴经济出现增长（见图1）。这些援助还让古巴政府对电力系统进行了大的整修（还将古巴国的5200万的白炽灯泡用节能灯泡代替）。数年前，停电在古巴很频繁，而且停电的时间也很长；如今，这种现象很少出现。与委内瑞拉的援助随之而来的是中国政府提供的贷款。古巴正逐渐使用新型节能的中国款式来增强本国耗油量大的各类苏式巴士车与卡车。



Mr Chávez may still believe in Mr Castro's revolution, but talk to ordinary Cubans and grievances well up. Top of the list comes low wages and high prices. Salaries typically range from 40

0 (non-convertible) Cuban pesos a month for a factory worker to some 700 for a doctor. But that amounts to only 16-28 CUCs ($17-30) at the unofficial (but legal) exchange rate. Pesos are good mainly for buying the subsidised official rations, handed out through the CDRs. Each month these comprise 5lbs (2? kilos) of rice per person, half a litre of cooking oil and, when available, beans, sugar, sardines, pork, chicken, soap and toothpaste. This lasts only a week or so.
查韦斯总统可能仍相信老卡斯特罗的革命事业，但是与古巴平民谈话后却会发现数不尽的冤屈。人民抱怨最大的是低廉的工资与高额的物价。最具代表性的工资是，普通工厂工人每月能挣得400古巴比索（不可自由兑换），一位医生的工资则是大约700古巴比索。但是，这些以非官方但合法的汇率仅能折合16-28个 CUC（相当于17-30美元）。比索的用途主要在购买一些政府津贴的供应物，然后通过古巴革命防御各级委员会抛出。每个月这些供应物包括了每人5磅（2.25公斤）大米，半升食用油，以及在供应充足时购买一些大豆、糖、沙丁鱼、猪肉、鸡肉、香皂与牙膏。这些仅够用一周左右。

Other things can be bought nowadays in Cuba—but at a price. At the bustling Cuatro Caminos market hall near Havana's main railway station, onions cost 5 ordinary Cuban pesos each, a pound of beans costs 10 pesos and a similar quantity of chicken and bacon go for 23 pesos.
如今，在古巴可以买到其它一些物品了——但价格却不菲。在哈瓦那主要火车站附近的熙熙攘攘的Cuatro Caminos集市上，洋葱头要每个5个古巴比索，一磅大豆要花费10个古巴比索，而同样重量的鸡肉与熏肉要花费23个古巴比索。

To make ends meet, Cubans are forced to rely on a vast informal economy. It is greased by remittances from abroad, which are estimated at between $500m and $1 billion a year. “Everyone has their business on the side,” says a transport inspector in Aguada de Pasajeros, a dusty farming town of small one-storey houses that would not look out of place in the poorer countries of Central America.
为了保证收支平衡，古巴人被迫要依赖于巨额的非正式经济。这种经济受到了国外汇款的推进，据估计，国外汇款每年汇入的金额在5亿美元到10亿美元之间。 “每个古巴人在那边都有自己的生意，”Aguada de Pasajeros的一位交通检查员讲道，他所在的这个城镇是一个到处灰尘的农业城镇，到处都是矮小的平房，而在中美洲更穷的国家也找不到这样的地方。

These sidelines range from market gardens to shoemending, or to running a taxi service using the horses and carts that are ubiquitous in places like Aguada. Rodrigo, an engineer in a small town in central Cuba surrounded by cane fields, says there is no point in practising his profession for a pittance

. Instead, he deals in second-hand clothes, and raises chickens and pigs. He dives into the bedroom in his two-bedroom house and shows off an attaché case full of euros and CUCs. In any other country, he would be a successful businessman. He and his partner, a psychologist, are desperate to leave Cuba.
古巴人的这些副业大到商业花园，小到修补鞋子，或者使用马匹与手拉车经营出租车服务，这在如Aguada之类的地方是无处不在。罗德里格是一位居住在古巴中部一个四处是甘蔗地的小镇上的工程师，他讲道，他从事着自己职业获取那么一丁点薪俸没有任何意义。相反，他经营着二手衣物，并且还养着一些鸡与猪。他冲进他那两间卧室的房屋并炫耀着一个满是欧元与CUC的盒子。在其它任何国家，他都是一位成功的商人。之后得知，他与他的同伴（一位心理学家）为离开古巴而发狂。

Since the informal economy is officially illegal, it is wrapped around by harassment, bribes and bureaucracy—what Cubans call the “internal embargo”. It also breeds absenteeism, cynicism and ingenuity. These are eroding the little that remains of revolutionary morale. In Cienfuegos, when your correspondent went to the official exchange house, he was ushered into a shop next door by a muscular young man in dark glasses who offered to swap euros for CUCs. “It's illegal, but there's no problem,” he said. This transaction took place right opposite the local headquarters of the Communist Party. Rodrigo says his dissident sympathies are well known in his town, but he is not denounced by the president of his local CDR because he sells clothes to the man's wife. Use of the internet is restricted, but government workers rent out night-time access.
从政府的角度来讲，由于非正式经济是非法的，这种做法因此受到了诸多的阻碍，如困扰、贿赂与官僚制度——古巴人把这些称作“内部的制裁”。这种状态还导致了矿工、愤世嫉俗已经投机取巧的情况出现，而且正在腐蚀着遗留下少得可怜的革命士气。在古巴中南部城市辛菲哥斯，当我们的随行记者到官方的外汇交易所时，他被一位戴着墨镜的大个年轻人带入到隔壁的一间商店，说受理用欧元兑换CUC的业务。“这是非法的，但一点问题都没有，”年轻人讲道。他们之间的交易就在共产党的地方总部的正对面完成了。罗德里格说道他对异己的同情在他的镇上是出了名的，但是他并没有遭到地方革命防御委员会主席的谴责，因为他要卖衣物给主席的妻子。使用英特网在那里是受限制的，但是政府的员工将夜间的上网租了出去。

The informal economy is one way in which Cuba is becoming more like the rest of Latin America. Another is growing inequality. Jobs in tourism or at foreign companies are coveted, as giving access to tips or bonuses.

But only around two-thirds of Cubans have access to hard currency from one source or another. There is no malnutrition but poverty is palpable: at night, at a tourist restaurant in Cienfuegos, a chef hands a basket of food through a window to hungry relatives waiting outside.
非正式经济是古巴的在压力下产生的一种后果，这使得古巴变得更像拉丁美洲其它国家那样。另一种后果则是不公平现象增多。旅游业或外资公司的职位都受到古巴人民的觊觎，因为在那些地方能够获得消费或奖金。但是，仅有三分之二的古巴人能够才能够各个钱庄弄到可兑换的外汇。古巴人并没有表现出营养不良，但贫穷是显而易见的：夜晚，在辛菲哥斯的一家旅游餐厅，一位厨师将一篮子食物从一扇窗户递到了在外等候的饥不择食的亲戚们。

Other grievances include the shortages of public transport and housing. On the outskirts of every town, would-be passengers wait for an hour or more for a ride. Alberto, a driver, tells of his frustration that after 30 years of work he must still lodge in the house of his sister.
古巴人其它的冤屈包括了公共交通与房屋设施的短缺。在每座城镇的偏远地带，想要搭车的乘客会为乘车而等上一个多小时。一位司机阿尔伯特告诉了我们他的烦恼——在工作了30年后，他还必需挤在他姐姐的房子里。

Many Cubans still praise their free health and education services. But they add that these are of deteriorating quality. Schools have been hit by the loss of teachers to tourism jobs (and by a decision to halve class sizes to 15). Their replacements are ill-trained student teachers. Hospital buildings are dilapidated, while medicine and equipment are often in short supply. Next to the shabby maternity hospital in Havana stands a trim, freshly painted eye hospital—used mainly for Latin American patients flown in by Venezuela for cataract operations. This is a propaganda success for Mr Castro and Mr Chávez, but breeds resentment among Cubans.
许多古巴人仍赞颂着国家实施的免费医疗与教育体系。但是，他们补充说这些体系都质量较差。随着教师流失到了旅游业，（而且也由于一个将课堂规模减小到15 个学生的决议）学校受到了重创。而取代那些教师的则是从学生里挑选的教师，而他们没有经过严格从教训练。医院大楼看似就要坍塌，而医药与医疗设施也经常出现供应不足。在残破不堪的妇产科医院的隔壁是一所整洁的并刚粉刷过的眼科医院——这主要是为从委内瑞拉来的拉丁美洲病人进行白内障手术。对老卡斯特罗与查韦斯而言，这是外国外交的一种成功，但古巴人民却为之满腹的愤懑。

Raúl and the renewal of reform
劳尔与改革新政

Since taking over the reins, Raúl Castro has given signs that he understands many of these frus

trations. But Raúl is no liberal democrat. He is a lifelong Communist: he was in the Communist Youth when Fidel was still just a leftist nationalist. Immediately after the revolution, his brother charged him with forging a new army, which he has run ever since. It is the country's most efficient institution. Raúl differs in temperament from Fidel. He keeps regular hours, is a tidy administrator and is more at home in small gatherings than giving long public speeches. Where Fidel is an obsessive micro-manager, Raúl is a delegator. He is also more pragmatic.
自从劳尔?卡斯特罗担任了国家管理者，他就多次表示他非常理解很多这些烦躁不安的因素。但是，劳尔并不是自由民主人士。他是自始至终都是一位共产党人—— 当老卡斯特罗还是一位左翼国家主义者时，他就加入了共产主义青年党。在革命爆发之后，他的兄弟就立即因劳尔组建了一支新军队而指责他，而这支军队自那由劳尔带领。劳尔在性情上与老卡斯特罗不同。他寝食很有规律，是一位严谨的管理者，而且比起在公共场合发表长篇演讲，他更喜欢在家里举行小型聚会。如果说老卡斯特罗是一位全神贯注的微观管理者，那劳尔则是一位全权代表。此外，劳尔还更加务实。

Last July he launched an open debate on the shortcomings of Cuba's economy, saying that it needed “structural and conceptual changes”. So far more has been said than done. But the government has quietly turned more state land over to family farming and paid off a debt to dairy farmers. It is also spending more money on transport—buying more Chinese buses—and on doing up hospitals. Provincial officials have been given more autonomy. The police inflict less harassment on the private taxi drivers who take tourists around in 1950s American cars. The government has decreed that workers in foreign companies must pay tax on their unofficial bonuses—a way of accepting that companies should be free to vary pay according to performance.
去年7月，劳尔启动了以此针对古巴经济缺陷的公开性辩论；他讲道，古巴经济需要“结构性与概念上的变革”。到目前为止，做的始终比说的要少。但是，古巴政府秘密地将一些国有土地转为用作小农经济，而且还为一些牛奶场农民支付了负债。古巴政府还正在将更多的资金用在交通事务上花费（如向中国购买巴士车）与整修各大医院。古巴的省级官员被授予了更多的自治权。而对于那些用上世纪50年代的美国汽车带着游客四处观光的出租车司机，警察对他们的烦扰也少了。据悉，古巴政府已经颁布了法令，即任何在外资企业工作的员工在领取工资以外的奖金时必需上缴赋税，而该法令也正好说明政府希望企业能根据员工的业绩来定夺工资的高低。

With Raúl (or Mr Lage) installed in the pr

esidency, change may accelerate—but only a bit. An economist involved in the reforms of the mid-1990s expects their resumption, but at a slower pace. “I think there will be a move towards greater decentralisation and the use of market mechanisms,” he says. Foreign investment and small business will be encouraged again.
劳尔（或拉奇先生）走马上任，变革也许能加快脚步——但仅快一点点。一位参与了上世纪90年代中期变革的经济学家期待他们能继续变革，但要以较慢的步伐进行。“我认为政府会加大地方分权的进程并实施市场机制，”他讲道。外国投资与小商业企业会再次会得到鼓励。

It is hard to discern clear factions within the regime. But there are powerful groups that benefit from the status quo. And some officials are seen as orthodox Marxists. Not all of these are elderly: they include Felipe Pérez Roque, the foreign minister, a protégé of Fidel. Even reformers worry that change will intensify inequality and create instability. Under Fidel Castro political logic has always trumped economic logic: three times since the 1960s he has reversed more pragmatic, decentralising policies and reimposed central control, as Carmelo Mesa-Lago and Jorge Pérez-López, two Cuban-American economists have pointed out.
在古巴政权内部很难出现明显的党派纷争。但是，政府内部还是有很大的群体从现状获得利益。而且，有些官员被看作是正统的马列主义者。而并非所有这些官员都上了年龄，他们中包括了老卡斯特罗的门生——外交部长菲利普?佩雷斯?罗克（Felipe Pérez Roque）。如今，即使改革者们都担心，变革将加大社会不公平的现象，并导致社会的不稳定。在老卡斯特罗的领导下，政治决策总是以国家的经济状况为导向 ——自上世纪60年代后，他曾三次重新采取更务实与地方分权政策并再次强加中央集权控制，正如两位古巴籍美国经济学家卡梅罗?梅萨-拉戈（Carmelo Mesa-Lago）与乔治?佩莱兹-洛佩兹（Jorge Pérez-López）所指出的那样。

Although he is retiring as president, Fidel Castro remains first secretary of the Communist Party. If a long-overdue party congress is held this year, that may be another harbinger of reform. But Fidel is still likely to exercise a veto power behind the scenes. He plans to continue writing regular newspaper columns. “I am not saying goodbye to you. I want only to fight on as a soldier of ideas,” his statement said. Raúl is not going to do anything that might embarrass his brother, says a foreign academic in Havana.
尽管老卡斯特罗从总统之位退下，但他还担任着共产党第一秘书。如果一个长期延误的政党大会在今年举行的话，那会议的召开可能会是另一种改革的预兆。但是，老卡斯特罗仍可能在幕后拥有否决权。他计划着继续定期写一些报纸专

栏评论。“我没有对你们说再见。我想要作为一名智慧的斗士继续战斗下去，”他陈述道。劳尔将不会做出任何让他兄弟难堪，一位在哈瓦那的外国研究院表示。

Nevertheless, two things are now acting as motors of change. One is a realisation that Venezuelan aid may not last forever—especially following the defeat last December of a constitutional referendum that would have allowed Mr Chávez to stay in office indefinitely. Without his payments for Cuban doctors (classed as a service export), the balance of payments would be under unbearable strain (see chart 2). The island spent $1.6 billion on food imports last year, and imports much of its fuel. Having repeatedly defaulted on its foreign debt, its credit is restricted.
无论如何，两件事情会推动改革的进程。其一，委内瑞拉的援助不可能永不停止，这是不容忽视的现实——特别是查韦斯在去年举行的符合宪法的全民公投上的失败之后，他的继任无法得到明确。如果没有查韦斯给古巴的医生们（服务型出口）发工资，那么古巴所剩余的资金就会处于无法承受的紧张压力之下。古巴去年在食品进口上花费了16亿美元，而大部分燃料也是进口。古巴一再拖欠国外的贷款，其信贷也受到限制。

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The second motor of change, recognises the economist, is “popular discontent”. Whatever else Cubans might think of Fidel Castro, many respect and fear him as the man who led the revolution and successfully defied the United States. A successor regime cannot count on those advantages. Already there have been small signs of defiance. Officials explaining the decree taxing bonuses were greeted with jeers and complaints.
本刊认为，改革的第二个推动力则是人民对现状感到“普遍的不满”。不管古巴人会如何看待老卡斯特罗，许多人仍会对他怀有敬畏的心理，因为他是一位领导古巴革命并成功反抗了美国的领袖。下一届的政权也不会去依赖那些优势。一些小的挑衅的迹象就已经出现过。而官员们也解释，对奖金的征税受到工薪阶层的辱骂与投诉。

The revolution has lost the loyalty of young people. One youngster publicly questioned Ricardo Alarcón, the president of the National Assembly, as to why the recent election did not include candidates with different views. Parents of teenagers, having struggled through the Special Period, find it hard to offer their children any hope that things will improve.
古巴革命让青年一代失去了忠诚。一位年轻人就公开向国家议会的主席提问——为什么最近的选举未能让一些见解不同的候选人参与。而对于那些艰难走过特别时期的父母们，他们也感到很难让自己的孩子们心存一切会变好的希望。

Since Raúl Castro took charge, there have been s

everal, small signs of political relaxation. Writers and artists seem to have carved out a small niche of autonomy. When former officials associated with the Stalinist cultural crackdown of the 1970s surfaced in a television programme, Raúl Castro publicly apologised for the excesses of that period. “The Lives of Others”, a film about the Stasi secret police in Communist East Germany, received several packed screenings at the Havana Film Festival last year. (Havana wags quickly adapted its Spanish title La Vida de Los Otros to La Vida de Nosotros or “Our Lives”.) One or two Cuban bloggers have survived without being molested.
自从劳尔?卡斯特罗当政，古巴就出现了几次小的政治放松的迹象。作家与艺术家们似乎开拓了一个享有自主权的小天地。一个电视节目播报了上世纪70年代斯大林主义者对古巴社会进行着文化镇压，而当劳尔得知有些前官员与此事有关联时，他公开为那个时期的暴行而对古巴人民道歉。在去年的哈瓦那电影节上，一部叫做 “别人的生命”讲述了共产主义的东德关于Stasi秘密警察的故事，而且该影片在几次放映过程中观众爆满。（哈瓦那的滑稽人士很快地将西班牙的影片名“他们的生命”改编成了“我们的生命”。）如今，一些古巴博客也没有受到官方的烦扰。

The government announced in December that it would sign the United Nations covenants on human rights. And it has begun a formal dialogue about human rights with Spain, its main European trading partner. On February 15th, it freed four of the prisoners arrested in the 2003 crackdown. But human-rights groups say there are still more than 200 political prisoners in Cuban jails.
去年12月，古巴政府宣布，她将签订联合国关于人权事务的盟约。此外，古巴还与她的主要贸易伙伴西班牙展开了一次关于人权的正式对话。今年2月15日，古巴释放了在2003年镇压中逮捕的其中4位囚犯。但是，人权组织说道，在古巴的监狱里仍有200多位政治犯被关押着。

Grumbling about the economy, about corruption and bureaucracy is tolerated. Grumbling about politics is not. As Rodrigo says, his mother who lives in the United States can stand on a street corner and denounce Mr Bush but “if here we talk ill of Fidel we go to jail.” Cuba remains a police state. Asked for their political opinions, most Cubans will respond by rolling their eyes. It may be true, as officials assert, that Cubans care about everyday issues and not about democracy. But nobody can be sure of that.
如今对古巴经济、腐败现象与官僚主义的牢骚是默许的，但对政治发牢骚则不能容忍。正如罗德里格讲的那样，他生活在美国的母亲能站在一个街道拐角公然指责布什总统，但“如果在古巴讲老卡斯特罗的不好（或坏话），你就等着去蹲监狱”。向古巴人问到他

们的政治观点，他们大多数会避而不谈。正如政府官员声明的，古巴人关心的是日常事务，而不是民主，这也许是对的。但是没有人会对此说法表示肯定。

[ 本帖最后由 jerrywhitt 于 2008-3-5 09:11 编辑 ]
发表于13:06 | 阅读全文 | 评论 1 | 编辑 | 分享 0股票市场:理智之外2008-03-05[2008.02.21] Beyond reason
Beyond reason理智之外
Feb 21st 2008
From The Economist print edition
2008年02月21日
源自《经济学人》印刷版

The strange existence of market anomalies
行情异常的奇异存在

STOCKMARKETS are efficient machines, populated by rational investors seeking to make the best returns that they can. As evidence, look at the difficulty the average fund manager faces in trying to beat the market.
股票市场是有效的机器，充满了欲获得最大回报的理智投资者——看看平常的基金经理欲在市场中胜出所面临的困难就知道了。

But if that is so, how do you explain the dotcom bubble, when companies with no profits and barely any sales had billion-dollar valuations? And what lies behind the continued existence of market anomalies, such as the tendency for smaller companies to outperform?
但事实果真如此，怎样解释网络泡沫？（当时没有利润、几乎没有销售额的公司却有着十亿美元计的市值。）行情异常持续存在的背后是什么？（如有的小公司市值暴涨。）

Academics have been discovering these effects for decades. There are seasonal patterns (stocks tend to do well in January and poorly during the summer). There are also valuation discrepancies (growth stocks tend to underperform). Some of these effects may be random. Analyse enough data and a few oddities will show up; plenty of people think some lottery numbers are “lucky” because they occur more often— though it would be odder still if they all turned up the same number of times. Other effects are real, but may be costly to exploit. For small companies, higher returns may be negated by higher costs, reduced
liquidity and higher risk (smaller firms are more likely to go bust).
数十年来，学者们一直在观察这些效果。原因有季节性的，如股票在一月倾向于强劲，在夏季倾向于疲软，也有估价上的偏差，增长股常被低估。这些现象中有些是随机的。通过大量数据分析，你会发现一些奇怪的现象。许多人认为某些个别数字会带来“好运”，因为它们更经常表现异常——如果表现异常的一直是这些数字，人们会感到更加奇怪。其它效果也是真实的，考察起来也耗时。对于小公司，高回报可能被高成本、低流动性、高风险所抵消。（小公司更倾向于破产）。

The underperformance of growth stocks is linked to an overenthusiasm for extrapolation. A company increases its profits at 20% a year for five years and investors are tempted to believe i

t can do so for 15;historically, however, such paragons are about as rare as vegetarian cats. In contrast, the prices of“value” stocks (which have a poorer record but lower ratings) perform better than expected.
成长股市值过低和投资者过分推断紧密相关。一个公司5年内年利润增长率为20％，投资者则倾向于认为其业绩会持续15年；然而，历史证明，此类现象十分罕见。相反，“价值”股（以往表现差，等级也低）的价格比预期好得多。

The latest quirk to be examined is momentum, or the tendency for stocks that did well in the past to do well in the future. Three academics at the London Business School devised portfolios consisting of stocks that had outperformed over a 12-month period. They waited a month to buy them and then rebalanced the portfolio after a further month. In the British market, the “winners” under this methodology outdid the worst performers by more than ten percentage points a year over the past 108 years.
最新的异常情形是关于趋势的——以往表现佳的股票前景也好。伦敦商学院的三位学者设计了包含在过去12个月内表现良好股票的投资组合。选定股票后，他们等了一个月买下；买完一个月后，他们又重新计算组合的市值。在最近108年的英国市场上，每年按此方法的“赢家”比业绩最差的多收益10％。

Some of this excess return will have been eaten up by higher costs; trading costs were substantial until the last 20 years. The momentum effect has also suffered some sharp switchbacks (including an 80% decline in 1975) that may have wiped out those traders who tried to follow it. That could be about to happen now, given that the strategy would leave investors heavily exposed to mining stocks. Momentum wannabes should also be warned that the effect works for individual stocks over months, not years.
这种超额回报的一部分被过高的费用抵消掉；直到最近20年前，交易费用一直很高。趋势效果也不是四平八稳的（其中1975年的市值缩水80％），这种不稳定可能使一些坚持此效果作用的投资者改弦易辙。现在，此情形有可能将要发生作用，因为奉行趋势效果策略会使投资者承担矿业股票严重缩水的风险。相信此效果的投资者应意识到，该效果对个股作用常会是数月，而不是数年。

Nevertheless, it is still a puzzle why such a glaring anomaly has not been arbitraged away. Academics have just about abandoned the idea that all investors are rational; there are too many examples of psychological quirks (such as an aversion to recognising losses) for that to be the case. Nor can a bunch of “super-smart” investors necessarily keep prices in line; they may face constraints on their ability to trade or simply run out of money before the anomalies can be corrected.
此种引人注目的异常没有被投机活动抵消，这让人

有些困惑。学者们几乎已经放弃了所有投资者都是理智的这一观点；很多情况下，投资者心理活动异常（如拒绝承认损失）。一些“超聪明”的投资者也不一定能使价格合理变化；他们有时会面临自己交易能力有限的约束或仅仅是资金短缺，所以无法力挽狂澜。

Perhaps the most compelling reason why market prices are tough to beat is the “wisdom of crowds”phenomenon. If people are asked to estimate the number of jellybeans in a jar, their average estimate is usually quite close to the truth; indeed the average guess is far better than the vast majority of individual guesses. In other words, as Michael Mauboussin of the fund-management group Legg Mason remarks, the collective is smarter than the average person within the collective.
或许，难以在市场中胜出的最主要原因是由于“人群智慧”这个现象。如果让人们去猜测罐中的软糖数，通常情况下平均数最接近事实；平均数比大部分个体的猜测数目准确得多。也就是说，如Legg Mason基金管理集团迈克尔 毛布森（Michael Mauboussin）所言，集体比集体中的个人聪明得多。

But this wisdom depends on the diversity of the people making the guesses. Mr Mauboussin argues that problems occur when diversity breaks down and “groupthink” starts to take over. Investors no longer guess how many jellybeans are in the jar, but what other people's guesses might turn out to be.
但此种智慧取决于猜测人差别的存在。毛布森（Mausoussin）先生认为，当差别性不发生作用，“集体商议”开始起效时，问题便会发生。投资者不再猜测罐中有多少软糖，而是去猜测其他人的想法。

There's an old test that neatly makes this point. Participants have to choose a number between zero and 100 that will be two-thirds of the average choice of the others taking part. So if you thought the average would be 50, you would go for 33. However, if everyone makes this logical leap, the best guess should be 22 (two-thirds of 33). Extend this process a few times and you can work out that the best choice would be zero. In real life, however, not everyone is so rational and the correct answer is never that low.
以前有个测试很好地说明了这一点。参与者必须从0到100选出一个数，该数为所有参与者所选数平均数的2/3。所以，如果你认为平均数是50，你会选择 33。然而，若所有人都作此推断，最佳答案应为22（33的2/3）。若将此过程持续几次，你会发现最佳答案应是0。实际上，不是每个人都是理智的，正确答案也不是那样低。

In short, it is very hard to quantify the precise irrationality of investors. That is why investors get lured into buying dotcom stocks in the hope that a “greater fool” will purchase them at a higher price. And that is why there will always be market anomalies for academ

ics to discover.
简而言之，准确计算投资者的不理智性是十分困难的。正因为如此，人们会禁不住诱惑去买网络股，希望会有“更大的傻瓜”在更高的价格购买这些股票。也因为如此，市场上总存在异常行情等待学者们去发现。
发表于13:05 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0雅力士彩绘设计网络大赛2008-03-05本文为FEEDSKY付费评论.链接地址:/review/feedsky/ecocn/~/txt/150/r.html

这是本博客收到的第二次付费评论话题,打开广告一看,是丰田汽车的三大战略车型之一YARIS,很漂亮的车型.我很喜欢的.

这是“智‘绘’我本色”活动介绍:

本次大赛为大家开放四个风格各异的地带供大家挥洒个性，它们分别是：
“炫动风潮”sporty——针对爱运动、爱大自然，还要极具运动感以及爱炫的超强表现力的你。
“都市魅影”urban——在大都市中来来去去，每个人都想与众不同，你的都市感觉是否够魅力、够锐利就赶快来参加。
“潮爆至上”fashion——只要你认为自己是个十足的潮人，你把爱车看作是最精锐的时尚战车，并认为你的作品能掀起时尚的浪潮，就请过来试一试。
“典雅风情”elegant——绅士还是淑女，只要你有本事让你的爱车和你一点一处都精致细腻，就让我们领略一下你的无限风情。

我看了一下活动主页,是用FLASH做的,非常漂亮 ,只是我这儿的网通速度较慢,打开起来也是相当困难.里面我最喜欢的还是这个: /painter/index.html?id=2432

活动时间是截止到3月25日,所以还想参加的车友们赶紧报名吧,地址:

也是我一个忠爱的车型 ,今年也已经超过通用成为全球第一大汽车产商,这与日本人做事严谨认真的风格是分不开的.旗下的这个雅士力品牌也卖得不错,想买的朋友也来看看这一次的活动吧,说不定会给你一些灵感
发表于12:38 | 阅读全文 | 评论 0 | 编辑 | 分享 0下一次绿色革命2008-03-04[2008.2.21]The Next Green Revolution下一次绿色革命
The next green revolution
下一次绿色革命
Feb 21st 2008 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

Europe may not like it, but genetic modification is transforming agriculture
虽然欧洲可能不欢迎它，但基因改良技术的确正在改变农业

FOR a decade Europe has rebuffed efforts by biotechnology firms such as America's Monsanto to promote genetically modified crops. Despite scientific assurances that genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are safe for human consumption, and a ruling by the World Trade Organisation against national import bans in the European Union, many Europeans have yet to touch or taste them. But that may soon change,according to Iain Ferguson, boss of Tate & Lyle, a British food giant. “We sit at a moment of history

when GM technology...is a fact of life,” he said this week.
近十年来，尽管像美国Monsanto这样致力于基因改良农作物的生物科技公司一直在努力；尽管有人类可以安全食用基因改良生物(GMOs)的科学依据；尽管世界贸易组织已经通过了一条协议以抵制欧盟进口此类生物的禁令；尽管很多欧洲人实际上已经接触和使用了它们，但欧洲却还是一直对GMO严厉拒绝。但是现在这种情况可能很快会改变，如英国大型食品企业Tate&Lyle的老板Iain Ferguson这周所说：“在我们现在的这个时代，GM技术才是生命的本质。”

Mr Ferguson, who is also the head of Britain's Food and Drink Federation, argues that because many large agricultural exporters have adopted GMOs, it is becoming expensive to avoid them. Copa-Cogeca, a farmers' lobby, this week warned that the rising cost of feed could wipe out Europe's livestock industry unless bans on GMOs are lifted. Meanwhile, European agriculture ministers failed to agree on whether to allow imports of GM maize and potatoes; the decision will now be made by the European Commission, which is likely to say yes.
Ferguson先生同时也是英国食品和饮料联盟的负责人。他认为拒绝GMO的成本会越来越高，因为很多大的农产品出口商已经使用了GMO。农民游说组织Copa-Cogeca这周也警告说除非采用GMO，否则不断增长的饲料价格会彻底摧毁欧洲的禽畜业。与此同时，欧洲各国的农业大臣们也没有就是否引进基因改良的玉米和西红柿达成一致，而不得不交由欧洲委员会决定，后者更倾向于批准。

If it does, it will be a victory for Monsanto. But the firm is already enjoying an even sweeter form of revenge: huge commercial success. It has had three straight years of revenue and profit growth, and on February 12th it raised its profit forecast for the fiscal year for the second time in two months. Monsanto made a profit of $993m in the year to August, on revenues of $8.6 billion. The global commodity-price boom helps (see article), but Brett Begemann, a senior executive at Monsanto, insists that it is the firm's advances in GMO technology that are fetching premium prices and will help it to double profits by 2012.
如果真的批准了，那对于Monsanto而言无疑是种胜利。实际上这家公司已经在品味着一种更甜蜜的报复形式：巨大的商业成功。公司的收入和利润连续三年增长，并在2月12日提高了本年度的盈利预期，这已经是近两个月以来的第二次。Monsanto到八月为止共盈利9930万，收入86亿。这种成绩得益于全球范围内的商品价格上涨，但公司高管Brett Begemann却认为是公司在GMO技术上的领先带来了产品溢价并预期公司将在2012年实现利润翻番。

The firm's fortunes have been boosted by the success of GMOs outside Europe. A new report from the International Servi

ce for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA), a non-profit outfit that tracks industry trends, charts the dramattic growth in the 12 years that GMOs have been commercially available. The area under cultivation increased by 12% last year, to 114m hectares globally. America topped the list, but there is rapid growth in Argentina, Brazil, India and China (see map). Thomas West of Pioneer Hi-Bred, a division of DuPont, says Europe should get on board, as “the train is leaving the station.”
得益于GMO在欧洲以外取得的成功，Monsanto公司的财富猛增。国际农业生物科技应用品服务组织（ISAAA），一个追踪行业趋势的非盈利机构的最新报告图表化了GMOs在过去12年中所带来的引人注目的商业增长。全球用于栽培基因改良生物的土地在去年扩大了12%，达到了114公顷。美国首当其冲，与此同时，阿根廷，巴西，印度和中国的快速增长也不容忽视（见图）。



According to Cropnosis, an industry consultancy, the market for agricultural biotechnology grew from about $3 billion in 2001 to over $6 billion in 2006, and is expected to reach $8.4 billion by 2011. Hans Kast, chief executive of Germany's BASF Plant Science, thinks the figure could reach $50 billion by 2025, as a second generation of GMO technology, now in the pipeline, reaches the market. Proponents of GMOs are optimistic because a confluence of social, commercial and technological forces is boosting the case for the technology. As India and China grow richer, the world is likely to need much more food, just as arable land, water and energy become scarcer and more expensive. If they fulfil their promise, GMOs offer a way out of this bind, providing higher yields even as they require less water, energy and fertiliser.
行业咨询公司Cropnosis表示，农业生物科技市场在2001年还只是30亿美元的规模，到2006年就已经超过了60亿美元，并且有可能在2011年达到84亿美元。德国BASF植物科学公司的首席执行官Hans Kast认为随着第二代GMO技术的发展和应用，这个数字在2025年有望达到500亿美元。GMOs的支持者非常乐观，因为他们见识了社会，商业和科技力量的配合是如何极大地改善了现实状况。随着中国和印度的发展，世界需要更多的食物，而可耕地，水和能源也会变得越来越稀少和昂贵。如果进口基因改良生物被批准，GMOs可以帮助人们走出困境，即便用相对少的水，能源和肥料也可以产生很高的收成。

Early incarnations of the technology, such as Monsanto's Roundup Ready maize and soyabeans, were genetically engineered to be resistant to herbicides and pesticides, making it easier for farmers to control pests without damaging crops. The second generation will have further traits, such as drought resistance, “stacked” on top. Michael Mack, chief executive of itzerland's Syngenta, reckons that farmer

s will pay extra for these new features.
之前科技的应用，比如Monsanto公司可以抵抗除草剂和杀虫剂的转基因玉米和大豆，能够帮助农民在不伤害农作物的前提下杀死害虫。第二代生物将有一些更优良的特质，例如被大家最为期待的防干旱特性。itzerland's Syngenta的首席执行官Michael Mack认为农民们不得不为这些新特性支付更多。


Moore's law for maize
玉米的摩尔定律
Indeed, farmers can expect ever-faster cycles of product upgrades, thinks David Fischhoff, a senior executive at Monsanto. He likens the industry's situation to the early days of the personal computer, now that the underlying technology is in place. Monsanto predicts that the yield from maize grown in America, which has doubled since 1970, can double again by 2030.
Monsanto的高管David Fishhoff认为农民实际上经历着有史以来最快速的产品升级周期。他把现在的行业状况和个人电脑最开始的那段日子相比较，因为两者的基本技术都已经很稳定。美国种植的玉米的收益自1970年以来已经翻了一番，Monsanto预计这个数字到2030年还会再翻一番。

Mr Mack draws a similar analogy. “ Like in the softwar industry,” he says, “intellectual-property rights give our technology value.” Farmers paying big licence fees to use the new technology would no doubt agree. But just as with software, GMOs suffer from piracy. In Argentina and China, the hostile stance toward intellectual-property rights has been blessed by the government itself.
Mack先生也做了相似的比喻。“就像是软件行业”，他说：“知识产权赋予我们的技术价值。”农民们肯定要为使用新技术而支付一笔较大的费用。但就像软件业遇到的状况一样，GMOs也会遭到侵权。在阿根廷和中国，甚至连政府也倾向于反对知识产权。

The dirty little secret of the software industry, however, was that companies quietly tolerated some piracy on the basis that once customers went legal, they would probably stick with the products they were already using. The same may be happening with GMOs. Ask Syngenta's boss if he is worried about piracy, and he answers “yes and no”. As countries grow richer or embrace WTO rules, he says, their farmers will start paying. Argentina has already headed in that direction, he reckons, and last year his firm set up a joint venture with a Chinese biotechnology centre.
软件行业的肮脏小秘密就是公司现在之所以那么仁慈是因为他们相信当顾客转而买正版商品时，会更倾向于买他们已经使用的产品。这样的事同样会发生在GMOs身上。当Syngenta的老板被问到是否会担心侵权问题时，他回答：“既是也不是”。随着那些国家变得越来越富有以及对WTO规则的不断接受，他认为当地的农民会开始愿意为正版支付的。阿根廷已经在朝那个方向前进