2011白糖市场走势分析

Sugar BulletinInsideSugar crop plantings for 2011/12 and their implications for the marketJune 2011White Premium Rockets UpwardsAfter falling sharply in April, raw sugar prices stabilised during May and are now trading in a range of 20-23 cents/lb. While the slow pace of the Brazilian harvest, combined with the growing line up of vessels at Centre/South ports, is supporting prices nearby, the prospect of a large surplus in 2011/12 is beginning to loom over the market. However, this surplus is still some way off and it remains to be seen if the weather will intervene as it did in 2010. As a result, the market structure remains broadly flat, with little difference between nearby prices and those 18 months out. Nearby raw sugar prices are currently trading at 22-23 cents/lb, around the same level as one month ago (Diagram 1). Meanwhile, the white premium has finally rocketed upwards, reaching close to $170/mt basis July/August futures (Diagram 2 and 3). Until recently, the white premium had been trading at very low levels for most of 2011. A powerful combination of high raw sugar prices, a steeply inverted market and weak demand for whites resulted in the white premium falling into negative territory on a pol-adjusted basis during some periods. Many refiners responded to this situation by cutting their losses and ceasing operations for much of the last few months. Of course, this situation could not be sustained forever, and it was widely anticipated that the white premium would recover in the second quarter. However, the premium has risen in spectacular fashion, making destination refining not only viable but extremely attractive in the near term.The white premium has been supported by improved demand, with many northern hemisphere countries having finished harvesting their domestic crops and now turning to imports, in some cases in anticipation of the Ramadan festival. However, near term prospects are supported not only by the re-emergence of demand, but also by the realisation that Thailand, a major origin producer of whites, will concentrate on raw sugar this year.The huge size of the Thai crop this year has increased significantly the country’s export availability, with around 7.0 mn mt rv available for export from the 2010/11 crop. However, the market conditions that prevailed during theDiagram 1: Raw sugar futures prices20.020.521.021.522.022.523.023.524.0Jul-11Oct-11Mar-12U S c e n t s /l b Current1 month ago6 months agoFuturesNote: Current prices are an average of the five trading days priorto publication. Other prices are for the corresponding period one month and six months ago.Table 1: Supply/demand balance (million tonnes, centrifugal sugar, raw value)2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 12 monthsTotal Total Total Oct-Dec Total Jan-Mar Apr-Jun to Jun 2011 World Production 164.7 162.6 152.5 56.8 158.3 51.4 24.1 164.6 World Consumption 156.7 159.2 160.7 41.2 163.1 40.2 41.3 163.0 Apparent Change in Stocks 8.1 3.4 -8.2 15.7 -4.8 11.2 -17.2 1.6 Statistical Adjustment -1.5 -3.2 -1.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -2.1 Actual Change in Stocks 6.6 0.2 -10.1 15.5 -5.2 10.3 -18.1 -0.5 Total Stocks at End-Period 79.8 80.0 70.0 64.8 64.7 75.0 56.9 56.9 LMC Index of World Sugar Stocks 1.44 1.43 1.16 1.04 1.04 0.93 1.01 1.01 (Seasonally Adjusted)New York No 11 (in $/mt) 218.2 266.7 396.4 639.5 491.1 672.5 520.2 572.8 London No 5 (in $/mt) 309.4 351.5 486.2 728.3 616.2 751.0 644.1 679.1'True' White Premium (in $/mt) 66.4 56.6 50.9 30.5 75.8 18.4 72.4 52.0Notes: 1: The LMC Index of World Sugar Stocks takes the value 1.00 at end-September 1980. LMC has calculated the seasonal adjustment that is required to bring each month's index of the stock:consumption ratio to the same base.2: The 'True' White Premium is derived by deducting the value of the pol adjustment in refining.3: The prices cover the period up to the last completed month prior to publication.Sources: ISO Statistical Bulletin; US Dept of Agriculture; FIRS; F O Licht; LMC estimates.Table 2: Sugar production (million tonnes, centrifugal sugar, raw value)2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 12 monthsTotal Total Total Oct-Dec Total Jan-Mar Apr-Jun to Jun 2011 Total Africa 9.9 9.7 10.0 2.8 10.4 1.4 2.6 10.4 Cuba 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 1.1 Total C. America 12.2 12.1 11.7 1.9 11.6 6.8 3.1 11.8 USA 7.6 7.2 7.0 2.9 7.3 2.9 0.8 7.3 Total N. America 7.7 7.2 7.1 2.9 7.3 2.9 0.8 7.3 Brazil 33.1 33.6 35.7 9.8 41.2 2.0 10.0 38.6 Total S. America 40.9 41.2 43.8 11.4 48.4 3.1 11.4 46.0 India 29.1 25.9 15.7 8.3 22.2 14.8 2.6 26.2 Total Asia 63.4 63.0 49.2 16.9 52.2 36.2 5.9 60.8 Total Oceania 4.9 4.9 4.7 1.2 3.8 0.0 0.2 3.8 EU 16.8 15.3 16.9 12.5 15.7 0.6 0.1 15.6 Total Europe 25.8 24.5 26.1 19.8 24.7 1.0 0.1 24.4 World Total 164.7 162.6 152.5 56.8 158.3 51.4 24.1 164.6Sources: ISO Statistical Bulletin; US Dept. of Agriculture: FIRS; F.O. Licht; LMC estimates.Page 2 © LMC International Ltd, 2011 Sugar Bulletin: June 2011Sugar Bulletin: June 2011 © LMC International Ltd, 2011 Page 3Table 3: Sugar consumption (million tonnes, centrifugal sugar, raw value)2007 2008 2009 201020102011 2011 12 monthsTotal Total Total Oct-Dec Total Jan-MarApr-Jun to Jun 2011Total Africa 15.1 15.8 16.0 4.2 16.2 3.9 4.0 16.3 Total C. America 8.8 8.7 8.6 1.9 8.1 2.0 2.1 8.1 USA9.3 9.7 9.7 2.5 10.1 2.4 2.5 10.1 Total N. America 10.7 11.0 11.2 2.8 11.5 2.7 2.9 11.5 Brazil11.5 11.8 12.6 3.0 12.1 3.1 3.4 12.5 Total S. America 19.0 19.4 20.3 5.0 19.8 4.8 5.4 20.4 India 23.0 23.6 24.6 5.6 24.6 5.9 6.1 23.8 Total Asia 69.9 71.5 72.7 17.8 74.0 19.3 18.9 73.3 Total Oceania 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.4 1.5 EU18.6 18.8 18.6 5.2 18.7 4.2 4.8 18.7 Total Europe 31.6 31.4 30.5 9.0 32.0 7.1 7.8 32.0 World Total156.7159.2160.741.2163.140.241.3163.0Sources: ISO Statistical Bulletin; US Dept. of Agriculture: FIRS; F.O. Licht; LMC estimates.Diagram 2: World white premium 708090100110120130140150160170Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11U S $/t o n n e (t e l q u e l )May/May 2011August/July 2011October/October 2011Diagram 3: World raw and white sugar futuresprices450500550600650700750800Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11U S $/t o n n eNo. 5 May-11No. 5 Aug-11No. 11 May-11No. 11 July-11peak harvest period (i.e., high raw sugar pricesand low white premium), as well as the desire among millers to produce sugar as quickly as possible to take advantage of high prices, means that this year’s output has been heavily biased towards raw sugar. At the end of May, milling statistics indicate that only around 43% of the crop has been produced as white or refined sugar, compared to 55-60% in normal years. Moreover, the re-melt programme, while underway, is expected to be unspectacular, despite the very favourable market signals, because Thai millers have already contracted large quantities of raw sugar for export.One of the reasons for the strong demand for Thai raws has been the slow start to the Brazilian harvest. This has limited the availability of raw sugar for export. It also means that white sugar produced in the early part of the season has been directed to the domestic market, where, until recently, returns have been more favourable (Diagram 5). This has added further to nearby tightness in the whites market.Page 4 © LMC International Ltd, 2011 Sugar Bulletin: June 2011Diagram 4: Indian domestic price vs. the No.5550600650700750800Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11U S $/t o n n eDomestic Price (Delhi warehouse)No.5 nearby futuresDiagram 5: Ex-mill returns from bulk/baggedsugar exports and domestic sugar in Brazil 400450500550600650700750800Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11U S $/t o n n eBulk exportsBagged exportsDomesticDiagram 6: Brazil: Ex-mill returns fromdomestic sugar, export sugar and ethanol350400450500550600650700750800Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11U S $/t o n n e Domestic sugar Export sugar (bulk)Hydrous ethanol (VHP equivalent)By May 16th , Centre/South Brazil had only crushed 56.6 mn mt of cane, 40% down on lastyear, while sugar and ethanol production were approximately half the levels produced last year.The slow start to the season was widely anticipated and has already been priced into themarket. Nevertheless, it has still resulted in a build up of vessels at Brazilian ports, with the situation looking very similar to last year. However, the reason for the line-up this year is that ships are waiting for sugar to arrive at the ports. The current line-up totals over 50 vessels. Constraints at Brazilian ports, together with any negative news about the progress of this year’s harvest, should continue to support sugar prices in the near term. However, the prospect of alarge global surplus in 2011/12 (Oct/Sept) is starting to loom over the market, with news ofplantings, which take place in the first quarter in most countries, beginning to emerge. In Russia, despite a slow start to the planting season, the Russian Sugar Producer’s Association has announced that plantings have surpassed the target of 1.2 mn hectares. By the end of May, a total of 1.23 mn hectares had been planted and, assuming normal weather conditions and yields, a record beet crop is certainly on the cards. Other beet producing countries, most notably the EU, have also been expanding planted area.In India, initial industry estimates point to an increase in cane area of between 7-10%, increasing national area to around 5.3-5.4 mn hectares. Furthermore, latest meteorological reports point towards a normal monsoon this year, which should mean improved yields over2010/11, when recovery rates where hit by laterains. This means that sugar output in the region of 27 mn mt wv could be achievable. With the cassava crop still badly affected by pestproblems, Thai farmers are expected to stick with cane for another season. Reports suggest that, given good weather conditions, the cane crop could even exceed this year, reaching as much as 100 mn mt. In theory, these increases in beet and cane areashould translate into much greater global sugarproduction in 2011/12. Indeed, our forecasts indicate a significant surplus of as much as eight million tonnes. While many other analysts haveproduced similar forecasts, for the moment, this is not being reflected in forward futures prices,which have continued to trade at a similar level to nearby values over the last month. This reflects the uncertainty about what the weatherSugar Bulletin: June 2011 © LMC International Ltd, 2011 Page 5Sugar by-products and ethanolDiagram 7: No. 11 commitments of tradersvs. nearby sugar pricesJul-10Sep-10Nov-10Jan-11Mar-11May-1112141618202224262830323436World sugar price (US cents/lb)Net speculative position No 11 nearby futures priceN e t s p e c u l a t i v e p o s i t i o n (000 c o n t r a c t s )will hold over the next few months. The experience of 2010/11 is still fresh in many people’s minds, when expectations of a large surplus were gradually eroded as weather events around the world took their toll on sugar crops. These problems only began in the summer months, when news emerged about the drought in Russia. Indeed, while the current drought in E urope is not thought to have affected the beet crop so far, if it continues it will undoubtedly have an adverse effect. This suggests that the prospect of a surplus may only be reflected in prices in later in the year when the Brazilian crop is in full flow and there is greater confidence about the prospect of a production surplus next season.If a large surplus is realised, this will take the pressure off Brazil to continue maximising its sugar output. This is good news for consumers, particularly given that the dramatic slowdown in the expansion of cane area in Brazil means that any increase in production would have to come at the expense of ethanol. The arrival of new crop ethanol onto the market has pushed ethanol prices down to 20-21 cents/lb, ICE No.11 equivalent, which is around the level we expect them to average over the course of the season. If a large surplus looks likely, it should mean that sugar prices could be pushed below this level later in the year. However, any problems with the progress of Brazil’s harvest will make it harder for prices to be pushed below this support level.MolassesThe US Gulf Blackstrap molasses price rose slightly over the last month reaching $176/mt in May. Meanwhile, EU cane molasses prices fell by $2/mt to $229/mt, while South Korean cane molasses prices also declined marginally to $187/mt (Diagram 8). Rising corn prices mean that molasses continues to look cheap as an input for animal feed. This is illustrated by Diagram 9, which compares corn and molasses prices. On a molasses equivalent basis, corn is now almost 20% more expensive than molasses. Corn prices have been supported by unfavourable weather, which has delayed US corn sowing. The USDA’s acreage report, which will provide clearer details on corn area, is due at the end of June. This will provide the next signal for the future direction of corn prices. EthanolIn the US, gasoline prices dipped in May and now stand at US$0.80/lt. This is in contrast to ethanol prices, which have remained steady ataround $0.70/lt narrowing blenders margins. In the international market, high prices in Brazil have resulted in a diversion of surplus US ethanol from the E U to Brazil. However, this trade is likely to be short-lived as Brazilian prices are falling quickly. Moreover, although US output has rebounded after the decline in production during April, tight corn stocks remain a threat to producers’ margins.Diagram 8: Molasses prices in key markets100125150175200225250Apr-09Sep-09Feb-10Jul-10Dec-10May-11U S $/t o n n eUS Blackstrap f.o.b. Gulf EU Cane c.i.f. Amsterdam EU Beet c.i.f. AmsterdamSouth Korea (Cane) c.i.f.Page 6 © LMC International Ltd, 2011 Sugar Bulletin: June 2011Table 4: Sugar by-products and ethanol prices2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 20102011 2011Average Average Average Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Average Jan-Mar Apr-Jun US Cane Molasses, Gulf ($/mt) 122.7 147.5 174.7 167.3 168.7 169.9 169.8 174.8 US Molasses:Maize Price Ratio 0.85 0.78 1.18 1.05 0.78 1.07 0.66 0.62 EU Molasses, Amsterdam ($/mt) 147.1 194.1 206.4 196.0 210.4 202.0 217.2 223.7 EU Molasses:Barley Price Ratio 0.60 0.82 1.37 0.90 0.80 1.13 0.77 0.80 EU Cane Molasses Import Levy/Tariff 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.000.0 (Euro/mt)US Beet Pulp, Los Angeles ($/mt) 140.1 185.4 129.7 126.8 139.3 128.6 173.0 215.3 EU Beet Pulp, Rotterdam ($/mt) 269.6 286.2 148.7 202.1 263.2 190.1 323.9 224.7 US Ethanol Spot Price ($/lt) 0.58 0.63 0.48 0.52 0.65 0.54 0.69 0.75 US Gasoline Spot Price ($/lt) 0.54 0.65 0.43 0.51 0.57 0.54 0.68 0.81 Brent Crude Oil Price ($/barrel)72.4 99.0 60.9 77.3 86.8 79.9104.2119.6Sources: USDA; LEI; LMC estimates.Political pressure to scale down the US$0.45 per gallon (US$0.12/lt) tax credit from which ethanol blenders benefit continues to grow. A bill has been introduced that would instead tie subsidies to movements in the oil price.In Brazil, after record prices in the past two months, the start of the 2011/12 cane crushing campaign has helped ease prices, which averaged US$0.62/lt and US$0.88/lt in May for hydrous and anhydrous ethanol, respectively. This means that prices are starting to become competitive against gasoline again.In the U, ethanol trading has been very subdued of late and prices averaged US$0.84/lt (spot FOB Rotterdam) during May. Motorists in Germany have been reluctant to use recently introduced E 10 principally out of concern that the higher ethanol blend could damage their engines. Concerns regarding the environmental benefits of ethanol and using food for fuel have also been cited.While delays by the Commission in announcing which voluntary sustainability schemes will be approved have resulted in lacklustre demand, the industry continues to be hit by the high price of wheat and cash margins have been negative over the past two months. A number of plants have already ceased operations and others are considering suspending operations.Diagram 9: Corn vs. molasses prices on amolasses equivalent basis4060801001201401601802002202005200620072008200920102011C o s t o n a m o l a s s e s e q u i v a l e n t b a s i s ($/t o n n e )Corn US Gulf Blackstrap MolassesDiagram 10: Brazilian, EU and US ethanolprices0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8May-09Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10Jan-11May-11U S $/l i t r e Brazil Anhydrous US (CBOT 1st Position)EU Anhydrous (Rotterdam)Sugar Bulletin: June 2011© LMC International Ltd, 2011Page 7Alternative sweetenersDiagram 11: Ratio of wholesale HFCS prices towhite sugar prices in the US3040506070809010011012019971999200120032005200720092011R a t i o o f w h o l e s a l e p r i c e t o t h a t o f r e f i n e d s u g a r (%)(42) HFCS(55) HFCSE ncouraging developments have been taking place in the beverage sector with a number of surveys pointing to an improved outlook in some of the key markets around the world. In April, Beverage World’s “State of the Industry” 2011 report revealed that the US market, which had a difficult period in 2009, is now starting to see better performance in nearly all of the drink categories. E ven the carbonated soft drinks sector, which had a particularly difficult five years, seems slowly to be picking up, capturing some market share from higher end energy drinks.The diet segment of the market has also had a relatively good year, although it is still said to be underperforming. This is despite the push with natural sweeteners, which include stevia-based sweeteners. However, key market drivers for the sector, in terms of a health and weight management are still proving to be very much evident in the US market.The findings are consistent with E uromonitor’s survey of the soft drinks sector carried out earlier in the year. In addition to better performance in the mature markets, Asia is predicted to overtake North America as the largest region in terms of overall soft drinks sales, in value terms, by the end of 2011. Health considerations are also driving consumption choices in this market. WOW! Nutrition, a pioneer and leading sweetener manufacturer in Brazil, launched 100% Stevia in May. This new line of sweeteners under the Doce Menor brand comes under a joint venture with PureCircle. Wow! Nutrition is the second largest sweetener manufacturer in Brazil and specializes in diet foods and healthy beverages. 100% stevia is their latest product line to be naturally sweetened with stevia. In other sweetener news, Tate & Lyle have made plans to reopen their mothballed US sucralose factory, expected to take place in the first half of the 2013 financial year. The plant, located in Alabama, had been closed in 2009 following Tate’s decision to integrate all their sucralose (Splenda) production in Singapore. Up until now, the company had indicated this had been sufficient to meet demand. Sucralose has been an extremely profitable business for Tate & Lyleand the company has just reported a good year in terms of sales volumes. The sales growth has been helped by reduced selling prices, reflecting a strategy of securing long-term volume contracts with customers. In its 2011 end year results, the value share of sucralose in the high intensity sweeteners market rose from 27% to 28% in the last year, with Splenda’s share of the global market for sucralose still around 90%. Tate & Lyle foresees even rosier prospects in 2012, justifying its decision to utilise capacity at two global sites. Rising obesity levels in emerging markets has rapidly expanded the market for healthier low-calorie products. Several food manufacturers are also seeking to use a higher proportion of sweeteners in blends, given high sugar prices, to keep their costs down. This has helped the fortunes of sucralose which is stable under varying heat conditions and hence is attractive for use in warmer climates.GLG Life Tech Corporation released information on its joint venture with China Agriculture and Healthy Foods Company Limited (CAHFC). The new venture will be called Dr. Zhang’s All Natural and Zero Calorie Beverage and Foods Company (ANOC). GLG announced that ANOC’s first line of six zero/low calorie teas will be the first to be sweetened with stevia, sourced from GLG. Most of the leading brands in China are sweetened with sugar. The new products are aimed at the ready-to-drink (RTD) teas which has been one of the fastest growing beverage categories in the country since 2000.© LMC International Ltd. 2011. All rights reserved.No material may be reproduced or transmitted, in whole or in part, in any manner, without written consent.E ditors: Martin Todd, Gareth Forber, Nikki Powell, Owen Wagner, Tara Nutt, Feifei Lu., Marsha Ribeiro, Rachel Cook, Suhrid Patel.Table 5: Wholesale prices for alternative sweeteners200720082009201020102010 2011 2011Average Average Average Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Average Jan-Mar Apr-Jun USA Prices (in $/mt, dry basis, Midwest)Bulk dry beet sugar 552.6717.6838.21,241.4 1,234.6 1165.9 1,219.3 1,228.3 Dextrose 620.5683.9746.3636.0 636.0 649.4 636.0 636.0 HFCS (42% fructose) 515.8607.0694.8539.5 654.2 587.0 663.7 663.7 HFCS (55% fructose) 561.5645.6726.5583.4 702.3 630.4 712.2 712.2 Glucose Corn Syrup 483.5564.1641.8559.4 667.1 590.3 676.1 676.1 Cost of Corn Wet Milling Inputs (in $/mt of Corn Sweetener, dry basis, ex-Chicago)No. 2 Yellow Maize 245.0337.5249.0271.6 362.3 276.0 432.5 474.5 By-product credits 116.3163.7116.9120.5 159.5 128.2 181.3 191.9 Net cost of maize inputs 128.9173.1131.8151.7 203.2 147.9 253.0 281.7 Japanese Prices (in Yen/kg, dry basis)Refined white soft sugar 154.5159.5167.2176.7 182.3 179.2 189.5HFCS (42% fructose) 136.8157.0159.2149.6 151.3 150.6 160.1HFCS (55% fructose) 145.0165.0167.2157.6 159.3 158.6 168.1Index of Intense Sweetener Prices, World Market(1987=100)World Raw Sugar Price 143.0174.9259.9291.5 419.2 321.9 440.9 341.1 Saccharin 64.1169.488.2103.3 109.3 71.2 117.7 38.3 Cyclamate (non-US markets) 216.0328.8351.2337.5 322.6 346.7 326.6 332.3 Aspartame (non-US markets) 15.315.815.615.0 15.2 15.2 15.1Notes: 1: Figures in italics are based upon incomplete coverage of the period in question.2: These corn sweetener prices are list prices, which are frequently very much higher than actual traded values for USdeliveries. US sugar prices, however, are actual traded values; thus the discounts for corn sweeteners shown in this table and Diagram 9 are understated.Sources: Milling and Baking News; Feedstuffs; Mitsui; LMC estimates.Summary●World production rose by 4.8% to 164.6 mnmt in the 12 months ending June 2011.●World consumption grew by 0.5% to 163.0mn mt during the same period.●World stocks fell slightly by 0.9% to 56.9 mnmt for the 12 months ending June 2011.●Raw sugar prices stabilised during Maytrading in a 20-23 cents/lb range. Meanwhile the white premium rocketed upwards to around $170/mt basis July/August futures. ●The slow pace of the Brazilian harvest andthe growing line up of vessels at Centre/South ports are supporting pricesnearby, however, the prospect of a largesurplus in 2011/12 is beginning to loomover the market.●Brazilian ethanol prices have fallen sharplyover the last few weeks as new crop ethanolhas become available.●Recent survey’s of the global beveragesector point to positive developments forlow calorie sweeteners.LMC InternationalNew York 1841 Broadway New York, NY 10023USAT +1 (212) 586-2427 F +1 (212) 397-4756 info@Oxford14-16 George StreetOxford OX1 2AFUKT +44 1865 791737F +44 1865 791739info@Kuala LumpurB-03-19, Empire SohoEmpire SubangJalan SS16/1, SS1647500 Subang JayaSelangor Darul EhsanMalaysiaT +603 5611 9337info@ 。