麦肯锡价值链的提升McKinsey
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($0.20)
• Local suppliers
($0.09)
* Estimate based on historical U.S. reemployment trends Source: McKinsey Global Institute
. . . brings . . . creates
returns new value
0.10
Labor
Profits retained in India
Suppliers2
Central government3
State government4
Total value accrued to India
Offshoring sector
1 Estimated using the India offshored services industry case 2 Includes revenue accrued to the supplier industries less sales taxes, income taxes to employees and corporate taxes 3 Includes income tax from labor employed in the offshored services sector and the supplier industries and corporate
U.S. House Sub-business Committee
“Can America Lose These Jobs and Still Prosper?”
– July 2003
“American legislators are accusing India of stealing jobs”
Decline in working population due to aging
JOBS OFFSHORED ARE A FRACTION OF ALL MASS LAYOFFS
Average annual mass layoffs1 Millions
All mass layoffs2
Traderelated layoffs3
Economic value of off-shoring real
• Off-shoring creates 40-50%
greater value for the global economy
• India captures 33% of every off-
shored dollar while the US retains 67% and the incremental 40-50% value creation
• Value chain moves will be
the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?
FOUR POSSIBLE VALUE CHAIN MOVES POSSIBLE
Base
Completed the first round of off-shoring successfully
• Will the BPO
phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?
• Even if it survives,
moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?
• Value chain moves will be
the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?
1. OFFSHORING ACTUALLY GENERATES GREATER VALUE FOR
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
to U.S. . . . from re-
employing
• Cost
U.S. labor* ...
savings
($0.58)
• Goods sold
($0.05)
• Profits
from Indian
ventures
($0.04)
. . . and makes the global pie that much bigger
“Tech jobs leave U.S. for India, Russia. Who’s to blame?”
– July 2003
“3.3 million U.S. service jobs to go offshore by 2015”
– November 2002
“America’s pain, India’s gain” – January 2003
麦肯锡价值链的提升 McKinsey
2
CONTEXT: BUSINESS PROCESS OFFSHORING HAS EXPLODED IN THE LAST FEW YEARS…
Demand side forces
• Encouraging track
record of early movers
2 Average 1996-99 3 Average 1989-2000 4 Average 2003-13 Source: NBER; BLS; Kletzer; McKinsey Global Institute
THEREFORE, BUSINESS LOGIC WOULD INDICATE THAT BPO HERE TO STAY … BUT WILL REQUIRE HANDLING CUSTOMER CONCERNS WITH COMPASSION
JOBS OFFSHORED WILL BE A SMALL FRACTION OF THE SHORTAGE IN ELIGIBLE WORKERS
Number of workers Millions, 2000-2015
Jobs projected to go offshore
Source: U.S. Census; McKinsey Global Institute
– June 2003
“Is your job next?” – February 2003
IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY
• Increase breadth and depth of services
• Strengthen and stabilize architecture – Insourceoutsource, onshoreoffshore architecture – Global hub architecture – Strategic outsourcing
• Value chain moves will be
the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?
IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY
• Off-shored jobs small fraction of
expected retirements/lay-offs
Negative emotional impact at the customer equally real
• Real people and communities are
• Will the BPO
phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?
• Even if it survives,
moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?
1.45-1.47
$1.00
百度文库
0.45-0.47
0.67 0.33
$1 previously spent in U.S., now offshored to India . . .
. . . delivers value to India . . .
• Taxes ($0.04) • Revenues
Offshoring projection4
1 Bureau of labor statistics defines mass layoffs as job loss actions leading to the displacement of 50 or more workers by a given establishment during a 5-week period
2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Source: Gartner; Dataquest; Aberdeen group; McKinsey analysis
…BUT HAS ALSO CREATED GREAT ANXIETY IN PRIMARY MARKETS
• Will the BPO
phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?
• Even if it survives,
moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?
effected
• Re-training takes time • Manufacturing hang-over still felt
IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY
INDIA CAPTURES 33 CENTS FROM EACH DOLLAR OF SPEND OFFSHORED BY THE U.S.
Value accrued from $1 of U.S. spend offshored1
Dollars; 2002
0.33
0.03
0.01
0.09
0.10
• Over 2.5 million low-cost
talented workers in countries such as India and Philippines
• Emergence of a credible
vendor community
BPO total revenues- India example* $ billion
tax on the supplier industries 4 Includes sales tax on the supplier industries and revenue from the sale of power to offshored service providers Source: McKinsey Global Institute
• Built
substantial scale in operations in India
• Penetrated 1-
2 businesses in depth
• Started
capturing labour cost savings
A: “Accelerate, extend breadth and depth”
• Demanding U.S market
environment
• Successful track record
of I/T offshoring
Supply-side enablers
• Telecom costs down by
90% in the last 3 years; world-class reliability
• Local suppliers
($0.09)
* Estimate based on historical U.S. reemployment trends Source: McKinsey Global Institute
. . . brings . . . creates
returns new value
0.10
Labor
Profits retained in India
Suppliers2
Central government3
State government4
Total value accrued to India
Offshoring sector
1 Estimated using the India offshored services industry case 2 Includes revenue accrued to the supplier industries less sales taxes, income taxes to employees and corporate taxes 3 Includes income tax from labor employed in the offshored services sector and the supplier industries and corporate
U.S. House Sub-business Committee
“Can America Lose These Jobs and Still Prosper?”
– July 2003
“American legislators are accusing India of stealing jobs”
Decline in working population due to aging
JOBS OFFSHORED ARE A FRACTION OF ALL MASS LAYOFFS
Average annual mass layoffs1 Millions
All mass layoffs2
Traderelated layoffs3
Economic value of off-shoring real
• Off-shoring creates 40-50%
greater value for the global economy
• India captures 33% of every off-
shored dollar while the US retains 67% and the incremental 40-50% value creation
• Value chain moves will be
the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?
FOUR POSSIBLE VALUE CHAIN MOVES POSSIBLE
Base
Completed the first round of off-shoring successfully
• Will the BPO
phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?
• Even if it survives,
moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?
• Value chain moves will be
the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?
1. OFFSHORING ACTUALLY GENERATES GREATER VALUE FOR
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
to U.S. . . . from re-
employing
• Cost
U.S. labor* ...
savings
($0.58)
• Goods sold
($0.05)
• Profits
from Indian
ventures
($0.04)
. . . and makes the global pie that much bigger
“Tech jobs leave U.S. for India, Russia. Who’s to blame?”
– July 2003
“3.3 million U.S. service jobs to go offshore by 2015”
– November 2002
“America’s pain, India’s gain” – January 2003
麦肯锡价值链的提升 McKinsey
2
CONTEXT: BUSINESS PROCESS OFFSHORING HAS EXPLODED IN THE LAST FEW YEARS…
Demand side forces
• Encouraging track
record of early movers
2 Average 1996-99 3 Average 1989-2000 4 Average 2003-13 Source: NBER; BLS; Kletzer; McKinsey Global Institute
THEREFORE, BUSINESS LOGIC WOULD INDICATE THAT BPO HERE TO STAY … BUT WILL REQUIRE HANDLING CUSTOMER CONCERNS WITH COMPASSION
JOBS OFFSHORED WILL BE A SMALL FRACTION OF THE SHORTAGE IN ELIGIBLE WORKERS
Number of workers Millions, 2000-2015
Jobs projected to go offshore
Source: U.S. Census; McKinsey Global Institute
– June 2003
“Is your job next?” – February 2003
IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY
• Increase breadth and depth of services
• Strengthen and stabilize architecture – Insourceoutsource, onshoreoffshore architecture – Global hub architecture – Strategic outsourcing
• Value chain moves will be
the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?
IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY
• Off-shored jobs small fraction of
expected retirements/lay-offs
Negative emotional impact at the customer equally real
• Real people and communities are
• Will the BPO
phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?
• Even if it survives,
moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?
1.45-1.47
$1.00
百度文库
0.45-0.47
0.67 0.33
$1 previously spent in U.S., now offshored to India . . .
. . . delivers value to India . . .
• Taxes ($0.04) • Revenues
Offshoring projection4
1 Bureau of labor statistics defines mass layoffs as job loss actions leading to the displacement of 50 or more workers by a given establishment during a 5-week period
2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Source: Gartner; Dataquest; Aberdeen group; McKinsey analysis
…BUT HAS ALSO CREATED GREAT ANXIETY IN PRIMARY MARKETS
• Will the BPO
phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?
• Even if it survives,
moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?
effected
• Re-training takes time • Manufacturing hang-over still felt
IN THIS CONTEXT, SEVERAL DOUBTS HAVE ARISEN ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTAL LONGEVITY AND EVOLUTION OF BPO AS AN INDUSTRY
INDIA CAPTURES 33 CENTS FROM EACH DOLLAR OF SPEND OFFSHORED BY THE U.S.
Value accrued from $1 of U.S. spend offshored1
Dollars; 2002
0.33
0.03
0.01
0.09
0.10
• Over 2.5 million low-cost
talented workers in countries such as India and Philippines
• Emergence of a credible
vendor community
BPO total revenues- India example* $ billion
tax on the supplier industries 4 Includes sales tax on the supplier industries and revenue from the sale of power to offshored service providers Source: McKinsey Global Institute
• Built
substantial scale in operations in India
• Penetrated 1-
2 businesses in depth
• Started
capturing labour cost savings
A: “Accelerate, extend breadth and depth”
• Demanding U.S market
environment
• Successful track record
of I/T offshoring
Supply-side enablers
• Telecom costs down by
90% in the last 3 years; world-class reliability