中国肺癌死亡趋势分析及发病_死亡的估计与预测_杨玲

流行病学研究

中国肺癌死亡趋势分析及发病、

死亡的估计与预测

杨玲　李连弟　陈育德　Donald M axw ell Parkin

【摘要】　背景与目的　利用我国现有相对较完善的肺癌发病死亡资料,描述中国肺癌死亡趋势,并估计和预测2000年及2005年的肺癌发病与死亡状况,以期对我国肺癌临床、基础研究及防治策略制定提供依据

及参考。方法　利用Joinpoint模型对卫生部上报WH O的中国1987～1999年肺癌死亡数据进行趋势分析,

结合我国1990～1992年第二次全死因调查结果及我国入选《五大洲癌症发病率》第八卷中肿瘤登记处的肺癌

发病死亡数据,采用对数线性模型(基于Po isson分布),估计并预测2000年及2005年中国肺癌的发病、死亡

状况。结果　我国肺癌年龄调整死亡率总体呈上升趋势,尤以农村明显(男性年均上升2.7%,女性上升

3.6%,均有统计学意义)且各年龄段(15岁以上)均呈不同程度上升趋势。自2000年至2005年,我国肺癌的

死亡人数将增加10.1万(自2000年的32.7万增至2005年的42.8万),发病人数将增加11.6万(自2000年

的38.1万增至2005年的49.7万)。结论　由于肺癌危险因素变化及人口增长、老龄化的双重作用,肺癌已

成为中国近年来最常见、增幅最大的恶性肿瘤之一,其预防与控制将成为未来中国肿瘤控制计划制定和实施

的重点之一,而控制烟草无疑成为其关键。

【关键词】　肺肿瘤 发病 死亡 趋势 预测

【中图分类号】　R734.2;R73-31

Mortality time trends and the incidence and mortality estimat ion and projection for lung cancer in China　Y AN G

L ing*,L I Liandi*,C HE N Y ude,Donald Max w ell Parkin▲.*N ational O f f ice f or Cancer P revention

and Control,Bei jing100021,P.R.China.Center f or Health In f ormation and S tatistics in Ministry o f

Hea lth,School o f P ublic Health,Peking University,Beijing100083,P.R.China.▲I nternational Associ-

ation f or Cancer Registries,University of Ox f ord,UK Ox f ord OX26HE

Corresponding author:Y A N G L ing,E-mai l:yangling@,y ang ling71@yahoo.

com

【Abstract】　Background and o bjective　U sing the mo st comprehensiv e available data o n lung cance r inci-dence and mo rtality in China,the mo rtality time trends w ere described and the incidence a nd mo rtality pr ofile

in2000and2005w ere e stimated and projected,so as to pr ovide evidence and reference fo r clinic,basic re-

search and making prevention and co ntrol strategy f or lung cance r in China.Methods　T he Joinpoint mo del

was used to analy ze the lung cancer mo r tality trends during1987--1999,based on data repo rted to W HO fro m

the M inistry of H ealth in bined with the data from the seco nd natio nal mo rtality sur vey in1990--

1992a nd the lung cancer incidence and mo rtality data from sever al cancer registries in China which invo lved in

Cancer Incidence in Fiv e Continents,the8th ve rsion,using the lo g-linear model(based o n Po isson distribu-

tion),the incidence and mor tality profile fo r lung cancer in2000and2005in China w ere estimated a nd pr ojec-

ted.Results　T he age-standardized mo rtality rates increased during the study perio d,especially in rural areas

(the ex pected annual pe rcentag e changes we re2.7%in men a nd3.6%for w omen,bo th w ere statistically sig-

nificant)and sho wed among almost all age g r oups(abov e age15).Fr om2000to2005,there w ould be0.101

millio n mo re lung cance r dea ths(from327643in2000to428936in2005)and0.116millio n more new inci-

dent cases(f rom381487in2000to497908in2005).C onclusion　Due to the double effects from both chang es

in the risk facto rs fo r the disease a nd the po pula tion g ro w th and ag ing,lung cance r is beco ming one o f the mo st

作者单位:100021　北京,全国肿瘤防治研究办公室(杨玲、李连弟);100083　卫生部卫生信息中心,北京大学公共卫生学院(陈育德);国际癌症登记协会,英国牛津大学,UK Oxfo rd OX26H E(Donald M axw ell Parkin)(通讯作者:杨玲,E-mail:y angling@pubem.cicam ,yangling71@yahoo. com)