USDA(美国农业部)全球油籽数据(2013年2月)

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

FOP 02 - 13

February 2013

China Seizes Opportunity from India

in Asian Soybean Meal Markets

China continues to be an opportunistic soybean meal exporter, back-filling India in Asian markets where they have freight and logistical advantages that emphasize smaller loads and short hauls.

Despite having excess processing capacity and advantages to nearby markets, China has not been the dominant meal exporter, because it has been constrained by strong domestic demand and higher internal prices, which limit exporters’ ability to compete with Indian meal. India is a competitive supplier to the same Asian markets. However, rising domestic use could potentially exceed production growth and erode exportable supplies. This would present an opportunity for exports by China.

OVERVIEW

Global soybean production is virtually unchanged as an increase in Brazil offsets a reduction in Argentina. Global trade is down, driven by lower exports from Argentina. World imports for soybean meal are down, but marginally up for oil. The season-average U.S. farm price is projected higher, supported by tightening stocks.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in

January averaged $568 per ton, down

$12 from the previous month. The

decline is due partly to prospects for

record South American crops despite

continued strong domestic and

foreign demand.

As of the week-ending January 31,

U.S. soybean commitments

(outstanding sales plus accumulated

exports) to China totaled 20.9 million

tons, compared to 18.5 million a year

ago. Total commitments to the world

are 34.2 million tons, compared to

26.9 million for the same period last

year.

2012/13 TRADE OUTLOOK

•U.S. soybean exports are unchanged. Soybean meal and oil exports are up 90,000 tons to 8.0 million, and 68,000 tons to 1.04 million, respectively, on larger sales through January.

•U.S. peanut exports are up 170,000 tons to 544,000 tons on demand by China.

•Argentina’s soybean exports are down 100,000 tons to 10.9 million on a smaller crop. Soybean meal exports are cut 800,000 tons to 28.0 million and oil exports down 100,000 tons to 4.5 million on reduced crush.

•EU’s imports of rapeseed and sunflowerseed meal are up 200,000 tons each, to 3.4 million and

3.1 million, respectively, partly offsetting reduced imports of soybean meal. Soybean meal

imports are cut 500,000 ton to 21.2 million on a slower import pace.