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Ladies and gentlemean, I want to thank XXXXX for giving me such an opportunity to meet many veteran and new friends here. It is a great honor for me to analyze on current condition of China’ fuel oil market and predict its future.
In 2011, the global economy slowed down and faced the danger of reaching bottom, developed economies’ debt crisis continu ed, the international oil price shocked a lot, China 's foreign trade environment worsened further, emerging economies were faced with "dilemma" situation which features both increasing inflationary pressure and economic decline, China realized "soft landing". China' fuel oil market pattern experienced a subtle change. Non-standard diesel fuel and light boat fuel market suddenly merged; Local refineries established comprehensive cooperation relationship with Sinopec and PetroChina to share their advantages;Bonded oil market became further open, ship supply market experienced a large year-on-year increase.
Under the government's guidance, China's fuel oil market developed towards a more reasonable orientation.The introduction of tax rebate policy for fuel oils further encourage deep processing of fuel oil; And the reduction of fuel oil tariff brought about good environment for imports of fuel oil; Integration of fuel oil import quota provided private enterprises with more extensive market spaces.
In recent years, Chinese economy has maintained stable and rapid growth,investments on construction of ports and related facilities also has also increased, coupled with frequent exchanges of vessels, ship oil market get great development space. The healthy competition in the market leads to its accelerated development. I want to introduce the market's main characteristics.
China's ship fuel market mainly includes two parts, one is for domestic ships, the other is for bonded ships, now 90% of bonded ships rely on imports. The market mainly has following features. Firstly domestic ships' demand increases steadily, because there is relevant data from any authoritative organization, I just give estimated result. Secondly, the market of domestic boats is more intense, there are over 500 enterprises which are engaged in the field, due to relatively low threshold of market access,the number of market players is enormous. Thirdly, the price of fuel oil for domestic trade ships is mainly determined by the market, while the prices of diesel and petrol are controlled by the government, which is the most obvious characteristic. So there is fuel oil future in futures exchanges. Fourthly, bonded oil market developes quickly, but also become increasingly competitive. Recently the government introduced a new policy to encourage chain operation in the bonded fuel market, this is actually a kind of opening policy. Fifthly, the price of domestic
bonded oils is obviously higher than the international price, although now most of bonded oils are imported, because of higher price, consumers have to pay higher price when they buy bonded oils in domestic ports, which hinders the development of marine bonded oil market. Sixthly, bonded oils' procurement channels become more and more diversified.
The global market of ship fuel oils has an turnover of 200 to 250 million tons a year, ship oils' market price is closely related to international price. Generally, a car moves within a city, while a ship travels around the world, the ship owner usually choose a oil supplier which offer the lowest price, this is the biggest characteristic. The quick growth of world economy leads to increasing demand, so far, Chinese boat oil market has great potential which has not been fully developed.
The situations of local refineries
According to the 2011 edition of "Industrial Structure Adjustment Directory", all small refineries whose processing capacities are below 2 million tons / year will be phased out by the end of 2013. Now, the policy has been implemented for nearly a year, those refineries are under enormous pressure, they have to consider transition or scale expansion. And 2012 is a key year for them.
Three kinds of situations among local refineries
In China's refining and petrochemical field, in addition to the large state-owned enterprise groups-Sinopec and China Petroleum, there are also a group local refineries. They are distributed in Shandong, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Hebei, Henan and other oil producing regions surrounding or are close to major ports. Some of them are privately owned enterprises,some are state-owned enterprises, foreign enterprises and joint venture companies are also available in the market. They need to struggle to survive in the market, because they have little quota and few sales networks.
With policy restriction in raw materials, any adjustment of policy can cause them in trouble. According to the 2011 edition of "Industry Structural Adjustment Directory", all small refineries whose processing capacities are below 2 million tons / year will be phased out by the end of 2013.With many policy restrictions and and enormous pressure, how are they operating? How do they respond to industry adjustment strategies?
Situation 1: Struggling for survival
As for local refineries with processing capacity of below 2 million tons / year, industrial structure adjustment policy means the choice of life and death, they have to struggle hard to meed the requirement, if they want to survive in the market.
The relevant provisions concerning the phasing out in the 2011 edition of "Industrial Structure Adjustment Directory cause greatest threat on them, for example, waste rubber and plastic tufa refining process, tar intermittent asphalt production and other backward technologies and equipments have to be removed. Take a local refinery enterprise from Zibo, Shandong- Hongyuan Petrochemical as an example, on one hand, it get a heavy oil deep processing project with its strong resource operation ability, thus making good use of national policy; On the other hand, as a large taxpayer in the region,it obtains favor from political leaders in both county and city level and get great policy support.There are many enterprises like Hongyuan Petrochemical company, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Group is one of them.
Situation 2 Facing difficulty in scale expansion
As for local oil refining enterprises whose processing capacity is between 2 million tons/year and 5 million tons/year, industrial structure adjustment means not only restriction on scale expansion but also more fierce competition.
2011版《产业结构调整目录》中限制类内容石油石化部分明确指出：限制新建1000万
吨/年以下常减压、150万吨/年以下催化裂化、100万吨/年以下连续重整（含芳烃抽提）、150万吨/年以下加氢裂化装置……
The 2011 edition of" directory" industrial structural adjustment in the restricted content petroleum petrochemical part clearly pointed out: the new restrictions on10000000tons / year following decompression,1500000tons / year following the FCC,1000000tons / year following the CCR ( containing aromatic extraction ),1500000tons / year following the hydrocracking unit ... ...
The State encourages petrochemical enterprises forward intensive is changed, dimensions is changed, standardization direction development, environmental and safety standards are also more mention is higher, the industry development is a good
thing, but according to these enterprises at present the financial strength, only to gradually expand the scale of development, step by step, but according to the latest catalog request, future to examine and approve to moderate or even smaller refinery project would be more difficult.
当前国家鼓励石化企业朝着集约化、规模化、规范化方向发展，环保和安全方面的标准也越提越高，对行业发展而言是好事儿，但按照这些企业目前的资金实力，要发展只能逐步扩大规模，循序渐进，但根据新版目录的要求，今后要审批到中等甚至较小规模的炼化项目会越来越难。

前方扩能遇阻，后方也意味着要加入更加激烈的市场竞争。

目前，原油价格波动较大，原料成本涨多跌少，加之越来越重的税收负担，炼油利润会更薄，如果和当地‘打市场游击战’的小炼油竞争，接下来生存会十分困难。

当下山东地区除了在地炼协会登记在册的21家成规模的炼油企业外，还有不少小型炼油厂是以化工厂、沥青厂等形式存在的。

这些企业只有几十吨甚至几吨的炼油能力，在市场行情不错的情况下偷偷开炼，市场行情不好的时候关停。

他们的原料来源非常广泛，除了进口燃料油外，不少从油田偷盗的油、落地油等都进入了这些企业加工，此外还有一些运作能力较强的企业能找到大型石油公司合作，拿到一些代加工的油品。

他们的炼油装置比较落后，技术水平较低，炼出的汽柴油产品大多数不合格，但可以低价卖给当地专门进行调油的企业经过调和后流向市场。

以山东海科化工集团为例，为了避免这种局面的出现，决定调整方向，炼油业务以深加工为主，同时，继续把精力偏向化工板块，走精细化工路线。

因为化工行业市场化程度高一些，限制少，机会也大。

1.表情三：紧抓机遇喜眉梢
对于一次加工能力大于500万吨/年的大型地方炼油企业而言，产业结构调整政策对其不再具有往昔的“压迫感”，而意味着更多的机遇和市场空间。

市场正逐步放开，国家产业政策也都朝着集约化、规模化、规范化的方向发展，这是地炼企业做大做强的难得契机。

地炼企业常常处于油源紧张吃不饱的状态，想发展而又处处受限。

然而，就是在这样一个尴尬的背景之下，山东也有几家炼化企业灵活运作，趟出了自己的一条特色路，像东明石化、金诚石化、利华益、华星、正和等企业，他们都在朝着千万吨级炼油规模，炼化一体化的发展方向，集团化的运作模式靠拢，而且共同特点都是讲求多方合作，公司资源越来越丰富，业务也越来越多元化。

不难总结出两条主要发展途径：其一，寻求与国内外大企业集团的战略合作；其二，以千万吨级炼油项目为题材寻求上市，拓展融资渠道。

总结地方炼厂灵活应对的生存之道：
产业结构调整的巨流不可阻挡。

地方炼油企业要想在新趋势下做大做强，提早做好转型准备，整合优势资源，多条腿走路可能是更为明智的选择。

寻找靠山夯实根基
从地炼企业自身的实际发展情况看，一方面，他们的原料供应很大程度上依附于国有大
型企业集团，不具有原油配置计划，不能加工进口原油，缺少原油非国营贸易进口资质，即便扩大了规模也解决不了“吃不饱”的问题；另一方面，从石化产业链格局看，地方炼化企业无勘探开采上游业务以及以乙烯为龙头的炼化一体化产业格局，以计划内原油、进口燃料油等重油为原料，开展一次、二次深加工，产品比较单一，加之缺乏有效的销售终端做支撑，市场抗风险能力弱，在市场需求不振以及油价倒挂等情况下，企业发展相当被动。

因此地炼企业只有通过和大型国有石油集团合作，彻底解决油源问题，才能更好的发展下去；同时要想在合作中保持自身发展的独立性，地炼企业只能增强自己的筹码，比如加工能力、加工技术以及市场渠道等。

●深化加工延伸链条
当前，我国所有的炼油企业都面临石油产品质量升级、环保压力增大、市场竞争激烈，以及国际油价剧烈波动的境况。

有些地炼企业只有避开与大炼油企业的直接竞争，目标市场差别化，以“缩小炼油规模，转向化工业务”为方向调整产品结构，延长产品链，以生产特色油品和专用化学品为主，巩固区域市场的销售渠道的优势，加之容易争取到地方政府的支持，走精细化工之路，才能获得更大发展空间。

另有一些地方炼油企业选择坚持和促进纵向一体化的协调发展方向，例如，滨化集团发展热电、氯碱化工，实现炼油与氯碱化工的有机结合，环氧丙烷等产品市场份额大幅度提升。

利华益集团利用炼油装置的丙烯开发丁辛醇以及下游新戊二醇、增塑剂等项目。

还有一些地方炼化企业利用副产的乙烯、碳四开发乙苯/苯乙烯、甲乙酮等高附加值化工产品。

●拓展终端补足短板
我国地方炼化企业大多没有成品油零售和批发资质，缺乏成品油市场销售权。

因此，鉴于大部分地方炼化企业具有原料接卸、成品油批发、仓储经营、零售经营等条件，应积极争取原油、成品油、燃料油非国营贸易资质，以及成品油仓储、批发和零售资质，建设或者租赁油品仓储设施，建设加油站零售终端网络以求在终端环节中获取更高利润。

●谋求转型多元发展
比如垦利石化引进意大利设备生产建材；利华益的医药和纺织板块已非常成熟；正合集团引进木业加工项目；海化、富海等上马了氯碱、化肥等深加工项目；东明石化的建筑、安装、进出口贸易做得风生水起。

还有一些企业在积极开拓物流、化纤、海盐、热电等业务。

企业可根据自身的资源特点以及经营实力，逐步拓展适合的新业务，以降低市场风险，多元化发展，提高经济效益。

历经十多年风吹雨打，我国现存的地方炼油企业已练就了野草一般顽强的生命力，而且形成了特有的生产和管理方式，综合免疫力极强，据统计，目前我国地炼企业炼油能力约1.2亿吨，成品油产量约占全国总产量的15%左右，对保障我国能源市场的供应发挥着积极补充作用。

然而今后我国地方炼油企业必然会经历一次洗牌，但结果是，非常弱小的地方炼油企业淘汰出局，中等规模的地方炼油企业在新一轮扩能应战中数量增多，大型地方炼油企业拓宽合作路径后，生命力更强大。

但受资源所限，洗牌之后地炼企业作为市场补充的地位仍无法改变。