【发展战略】中国胃癌死亡率20年变化情况分析及其发展趋势预测
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中华肿瘤杂志 2004 年 1 月第 26 卷第 1 期 Chin J Oncol , January 2004 , Vol 26 , No. 1
·基础研究·
中国胃癌死亡率 20 年变化情况分析及其 发展趋势预测
孙秀娣 牧人ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้ 周有尚 戴旭东 张思维 皇甫小梅 孙杰 李连弟 鲁凤珠 乔友林
【摘要】 目的 分析中国胃癌死亡 20 年的变化情况 ,探讨其变化规律 、可能的发展趋势 。方法 对基本采用同一方法处理的中国 20 世纪 70 年代和 90 年代两次死因调查结果进行对比 。结果 90 年代胃癌调整死亡率男性增长 11. 0 % ,女性增长 6. 3 % ;胃癌死亡率 70 年代城市略高于农村 ,90 年代 农村高于城市 37. 0 % ;90 年代城市胃癌调整死亡率男 、女性分别下降 22. 2 %、26. 7 % ,而农村男 、女性 分别上升 26. 4 %和 22. 1 %。无论城市还是农村 ,90 年代胃癌死亡的男 、女性之比均较 70 年代略有上 升 ,胃癌死亡危害男性高于女性 、且农村高于城市 。90 年代男 、女性胃癌死亡率下降的省 (市) 各有 12 个 ,分别占 44. 0 %(12/ 27) ;除江苏省外 ,女性的下降百分比均高于男性 ;胃癌死亡率上升在前 6 位的 省 (市) ,男性增幅均高于女性 。结论 中国胃癌死亡总的呈上升趋势 ,但在 27 个省 (市) 中则有升有 降 ;城乡之间 ,城市下降 ,农村上升 ;与世界各国比较 ,中国男 、女性胃癌世界调整死亡率居于首位 。20 年的胃癌死亡率在 30～59 岁年龄组中呈下降趋势 ,60 岁以上年龄组呈上升趋势 ,因而人口老化是胃 癌死亡率上升的重要因素 。
【Abstract】 Objective To analyze and predict the trend in mortality rate of stomach cancer in twenty years in China. Methods Stomach cancer mortality data collected from the China national survey over the period 1970s21990s for the cause of death were analyzed. Results The adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer in 1990s increased by 11. 0 % and 6. 3 % for males and females , respectively. The urban mortality in 1970s was slightly higher than the rural mortality , while in 1990s the rural mortality rate was about 60 % higher than the urban mortality. In 1990s , the adjusted urban mortality rate decreased by 22. 2 % and 26. 7 % for males and females , respectively. In contrast , the rural mortality rate increased by 26. 4 % and 22. 1 % for males and females , respectively. The sex ratio of stomach cancer deaths in 1990s , both in cities and rural areas , was slightly greater than that in 1970s , being more marked in the latter areas. In 1990s , the mortality rate decreased in 12 provinces , accounting for 44 % in both sexes(12/ 27) , but the decrease was more marked for females than for males except in Kiangs province. In provinces where the increased rates ranked top six positions , the magnitude of increase in rates was higher in males than in females. Conclusion The overall mortality rates of stomach cancer in the past 20 years in China presented an increasing trend , despite there were upward and downward changes in 27 provinces and decrease in cities while increase in rural areas. Compared with other countries , the world2adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer for both sexes in China ranks first. The increasing trend in stomach cancer mortality was seen in the older age groups ( > 60 years) while a decreasing trend was seen in the younger age groups (30259 years) . Aging of the population could be an important factor responsible for the increase in mortality rates of stomach cancer in China.
【主题词】 胃肿瘤/ 死亡率 ; 中国
Analysis of mortality rate of stomach cancer and its trend in twenty years in China SUN Xiu2di 3 , MU Ren , ZHOU You2shang , DAI Xu2dong , ZHANG Si2wei , HUANGFU Xiao2mei , SUN Jie , LI Lian2di , LU Feng2 zhu , QIAO You2lin. 3 Cancer Institute ( Hospital) , Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences , Peking Union Medical College , Beijing 100021 , China
中华肿瘤杂志 2004 年 1 月第 26 卷第 1 期 Chin J Oncol , January 2004 , Vol 26 , No. 1
·基础研究·
中国胃癌死亡率 20 年变化情况分析及其 发展趋势预测
孙秀娣 牧人ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้ 周有尚 戴旭东 张思维 皇甫小梅 孙杰 李连弟 鲁凤珠 乔友林
【摘要】 目的 分析中国胃癌死亡 20 年的变化情况 ,探讨其变化规律 、可能的发展趋势 。方法 对基本采用同一方法处理的中国 20 世纪 70 年代和 90 年代两次死因调查结果进行对比 。结果 90 年代胃癌调整死亡率男性增长 11. 0 % ,女性增长 6. 3 % ;胃癌死亡率 70 年代城市略高于农村 ,90 年代 农村高于城市 37. 0 % ;90 年代城市胃癌调整死亡率男 、女性分别下降 22. 2 %、26. 7 % ,而农村男 、女性 分别上升 26. 4 %和 22. 1 %。无论城市还是农村 ,90 年代胃癌死亡的男 、女性之比均较 70 年代略有上 升 ,胃癌死亡危害男性高于女性 、且农村高于城市 。90 年代男 、女性胃癌死亡率下降的省 (市) 各有 12 个 ,分别占 44. 0 %(12/ 27) ;除江苏省外 ,女性的下降百分比均高于男性 ;胃癌死亡率上升在前 6 位的 省 (市) ,男性增幅均高于女性 。结论 中国胃癌死亡总的呈上升趋势 ,但在 27 个省 (市) 中则有升有 降 ;城乡之间 ,城市下降 ,农村上升 ;与世界各国比较 ,中国男 、女性胃癌世界调整死亡率居于首位 。20 年的胃癌死亡率在 30～59 岁年龄组中呈下降趋势 ,60 岁以上年龄组呈上升趋势 ,因而人口老化是胃 癌死亡率上升的重要因素 。
【Abstract】 Objective To analyze and predict the trend in mortality rate of stomach cancer in twenty years in China. Methods Stomach cancer mortality data collected from the China national survey over the period 1970s21990s for the cause of death were analyzed. Results The adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer in 1990s increased by 11. 0 % and 6. 3 % for males and females , respectively. The urban mortality in 1970s was slightly higher than the rural mortality , while in 1990s the rural mortality rate was about 60 % higher than the urban mortality. In 1990s , the adjusted urban mortality rate decreased by 22. 2 % and 26. 7 % for males and females , respectively. In contrast , the rural mortality rate increased by 26. 4 % and 22. 1 % for males and females , respectively. The sex ratio of stomach cancer deaths in 1990s , both in cities and rural areas , was slightly greater than that in 1970s , being more marked in the latter areas. In 1990s , the mortality rate decreased in 12 provinces , accounting for 44 % in both sexes(12/ 27) , but the decrease was more marked for females than for males except in Kiangs province. In provinces where the increased rates ranked top six positions , the magnitude of increase in rates was higher in males than in females. Conclusion The overall mortality rates of stomach cancer in the past 20 years in China presented an increasing trend , despite there were upward and downward changes in 27 provinces and decrease in cities while increase in rural areas. Compared with other countries , the world2adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer for both sexes in China ranks first. The increasing trend in stomach cancer mortality was seen in the older age groups ( > 60 years) while a decreasing trend was seen in the younger age groups (30259 years) . Aging of the population could be an important factor responsible for the increase in mortality rates of stomach cancer in China.
【主题词】 胃肿瘤/ 死亡率 ; 中国
Analysis of mortality rate of stomach cancer and its trend in twenty years in China SUN Xiu2di 3 , MU Ren , ZHOU You2shang , DAI Xu2dong , ZHANG Si2wei , HUANGFU Xiao2mei , SUN Jie , LI Lian2di , LU Feng2 zhu , QIAO You2lin. 3 Cancer Institute ( Hospital) , Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences , Peking Union Medical College , Beijing 100021 , China