美元、经济周期和资产周期分析框架及推论

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ᓩ㿔˖བԩ‫ݐ‬乒ⷁЁ䭓ᳳⱘ䜡㕂᪡԰ϔⳈҹᴹᰃㄪ⬹ⷨおⱘ䞡ЁП䞡ˈ䖭⍝ঞᇍ໻ⱘ㒣⌢਼ᳳⱘ߸ᮁˈ г⍝ঞᇍⷁᳳᏖഎӋḐডᑨᴎࠊⱘ⧚㾷ˈ៥ӀҢ A 㙵Ꮦഎ㒧ᵘߎথ䖯㸠᥶㋶DŽA 㙵ᏖഎЏ㽕㹿䞥㵡ǃ⷇ ⊍ǃ✸⚁ϝ໻㸠ϮЏᆄˈA 㙵Ꮦഎⱘ㒧ᵘ‫އ‬ᅮ݊ϡҙᰃ䚼ߚফࠊѢ೑‫ݙ‬ᅣ㾖㒣⌢ˈ㗠Ϩᕜ໻⿟ᑺϞফࠊ Ѣ⌕ࡼᗻ੠ଚકӋḐⱘব࣪ˈ䖭ᰃ݊ϔˈ݊Ѡ A 㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌ໮Ў਼ᳳᗻ㸠Ϯˈ㙵Ӌবࡼ䘏䕥ϢѻકӋḐ ব࣪㋻ᆚⳌ݇DŽ಴ℸˈᴀ᭛ⷨおⳂⱘ䆩೒䗮䖛㕢‫ܗ‬ᣛ᭄ⱘ⊶ࡼᇚ㒣⌢਼ᳳ⊶ࡼ੠ܼ⧗䌘ѻӋḐԧ㋏䖲᥹ ೼ϔ䍋ˈЎ A 㙵Ꮦഎᡩ䌘‫خ‬খ㗗DŽ 㕢‫ߚܗ‬ᵤḚᶊ˖㕢‫ܗ‬೼䌘ѻ਼ᳳЁⱘ⦄䞥ࡳ㛑੠㒣⌢਼ᳳЁⱘᴀԡ䋻Ꮥࡳ㛑Փᕫ㕢‫ܗ‬ᣛ᭄䍄࢓ৃҹডᑨ 䌘ѻ਼ᳳ੠㒣⌢਼ᳳⱘব࣪ˈ಴ℸгᰃ៥Ӏ㾖⌟ܼ⧗⌕ࡼᗻҹঞ䌘ѻӋḐব࣪ⱘ佪㽕ᣛᷛDŽߚᵤ㕢‫ܗ‬䳔 㽕ߦߚϸϾ䰊↉ˈϔˈ೼㒣⌢਼ᳳ㹄䗔᳿ᳳϢ໡㢣ࠡᳳˈ㕢‫ܗ‬䍄࢓ব࣪Џ㽕ᰃ亢䰽‫أ‬དϢ䙓䰽ᚙ㒾ⱘम ᓜˈ㗠೼㒣⌢໡㢣䰊↉ˈ㕢‫ܗ‬䍄࢓Џ㽕ԧ⦄ᴀԡ䋻Ꮥࡳ㛑ⱘব࣪ˈ݊䍄࢓Ў䌁ф࡯ᑇӋǃ߽⥛ᑇӋǃ亢 䰽⑶Ӌϝ㗙ⳌᇍᬊⲞᎺেDŽ 㕢‫ܗ‬Ϣ㒣⌢਼ᳳЁˈᔅ㕢‫֗ܗ‬䖯ܼ⧗㒣⌢਼ᳳ໡㢣DŽҢ 1870 ᑈҹᴹˈ೑䰙䋻Ꮥԧ㋏ⱘⓨব㾦ᑺⳟˈᇸ ݊ᰃѠ៬ৢ㕢‫ܗ‬៤ЎϪ⬠䋻Ꮥৢˈ㕢‫ܗ‬Џ㽕ᡓ䕑ⴔϸ໻ࡳ㛑ˈϔǃҢܼ⧗㒣⌢਼ᳳ㾦ᑺ䆆ⱘᴀԡ䋻Ꮥࡳ 㛑˗ѠǃᰃҢܼ⧗䌘ѻ਼ᳳ㾦ᑺ䆆ⱘ⦄䞥䙓䰽੠ᡩᴎࡳ㛑DŽҢᴀԡ䋻Ꮥࡳ㛑Ϟ䆆ˈ㕢‫ܗ‬Ϣܼ⧗㒣⌢਼ᳳ ᔶ៤ѦࡼDŽ㕢 㕢‫ܗ‬ᴀԡᇍѢϪ⬠㒣⌢ⱘ԰⫼ৃㅔऩὖᣀЎ˖㕢‫ˈ⍼ܗ‬Ϫ⬠㒣⌢ᬊ㓽˗㕢‫ܗ‬䎠ˈ䋻Ꮥথ㸠ࡴ ໻ˈϪ⬠㒣⌢䖯ܹᠽᓴDŽ 㕢‫ܗ‬Ϣ䌘ѻ਼ᳳЁˈ䌉䞥ሲǃ‫ݰ‬ѻક੠෎ᴀ䞥ሲᰃᮍ৥DŽ೼៥Ӏⱘ݇ᏆߚᵤḚᶊϟˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ў㕢‫ܗ‬Ϣ䌘 ѻ਼ᳳⱘ݇㋏ৃҹߚЎѨϾ䰊↉˖㄀ϔ䰊↉ˈֵ䌋ᓔྟᬒᵒˈ㕢‫ܗ‬䍟Ѣϟ䎠ˈℸᯊা᳝؎ࠌᏖഎ໘Ѣ⠯ Ꮦ˗㄀Ѡ䰊↉ˈ೼㒣⌢๲䗳㾕ᑩৢˈ㙵心˄ᇸ݊ᰃᮄ݈Ꮦഎ㙵心˅੠໻ᅫଚક㸼⦄ߎ㡆˗㄀ϝ䰊↉ˈ೼ ⠽Ӌ∈ᑇ㾕ᑩৢˈ݊๲䭓䗳ᑺԢѢ㒣⌢๲䭓ⱘᘶ໡䗳ᑺˈଚકЁⱘ䌉䞥ሲᓔྟߌ⦄਌ᓩ࡯DŽ㄀ಯ䰊↉˖ ೼⠽Ӌ∈ᑇⱘ๲䭓䗳ᑺ䍙䖛㒣⌢ᘶ໡ⱘ๲䭓䗳ᑺৢˈ䌉䞥ሲ੠‫ݰ‬ѻકǃ㙵心˄ᇸ݊ᰃᮄ݈Ꮦഎ㙵心˅ᇚ 䍞ᴹ䍞᳝਌ᓩ࡯DŽ㄀Ѩ䰊↉ˈ㒣⌢๲䭓䗳ᑺ䖒ࠄ乊ዄৢˈFED ᓔྟࡴᙃˈֵ䌋㋻㓽ˈ䳔∖ϟ䰡ˈ䗮㚔ಲ ៥Ӏ䅸ЎⳂࠡᏖഎ໘೼䌘ѻ਼ᳳ㄀ϝ䰊↉ˈ᳾ᴹ䌉䞥ሲǃ‫ݰ‬ѻ 㨑ˈ≵᳝ϔϾᏖഎ໘Ѣ⠯Ꮦˈ⦄䞥Ў⥟DŽ៥ ક੠෎ᴀ䞥ሲⱘᴎӮ䕗໻DŽ ᇍ‫ކ‬䌀ؐᇚᇐ㟈㳄ӣⱘ䌘䞥໪⌕䍟࢓᳝ᳯ೼ 2009 ᑈ 4Q Ё-2010 ᑈ 1Q ोೳ䞡ᴹDŽ䱣ⴔ㕢㘨‫ࡴࠡᦤټ‬ᙃ 乘ᳳⱘ㨑ぎҹঞ㕢೑ᴀೳᡩ䌘ಲ᡹⥛᳾ᴹৃ㛑䴶Ј䭓ᳳ৥ϟⱘ䍟࢓ˈܼ⧗䌘䞥ЁⷁᳳᇚҢ㕢‫ܗ‬ǃ㕢೑೑ ؎ㄝᅝܼ䌘ѻ⌕ߎǃЁ Ё䭓ᳳᇚҢҹ㕢೑㙵ᏖЎЏⱘᴀೳ亢䰽⑶Ӌ䌘ѻЁ⌕ߎDŽ㗠෎Ѣᇍ‫ކ‬䌀ؐⱘ㗗㰥ˈ 䌘䞥ৃ㛑䲚Ё⍠৥ଚકᏖഎ੠ᮄ݈ᏖഎDŽ៥Ӏ乘䅵ˈ乘䅵೑䰙䌘ᴀӮ೼ࠡ᱃ⳟདⱘᮄ݈೑ᆊ䗑䗤᳈催ಲ ᡹⥛ᅠܼড়⧚ˈ⬅ℸᇐ㟈䖭ѯ೑ᆊⱘ䋻Ꮥᇍ㕢‫ܗ‬छؐˈ݊ЁЁ೑ᇸ݊‫݋‬᳝਌ᓩ࡯DŽ
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2009 ᑈBaidu Nhomakorabea9 ᳜ 29 ᮹
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ᓩ㿔 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1 1ǃᴀ᭛Ⳃⱘ ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 2ǃᴀ᭛㒧ᵘ ........................................................................................................................................................ 2 ϔǃ㕢‫ܗ‬䋻Ꮥԧ㋏ঞ݊ࡳ㛑 ...................................................................................................................................... 3 1ǃ䋻Ꮥԧ㋏໻џӊ ............................................................................................................................................ 3 2ǃ䋻Ꮥࡳ㛑ⓨব ................................................................................................................................................ 4 Ѡǃ೼ܼ⧗㒣⌢੠䌘ѻ਼ᳳѸ঴ϟ㕢‫ߚܗ‬ᵤḚᶊ .................................................................................................. 7 1ǃҹᕔⱘⷨおᮍ⊩ ............................................................................................................................................ 7 2ǃ៥ӀⱘߚᵤḚᶊ˖ऎߚ㕢‫ⱘܗ‬ϸ辵ࡳ㛑 ϸϾ䰊↉ ................................................................................... 7 ϝǃ㕢‫ܗ‬Ϣ㒣⌢਼ᳳ .................................................................................................................................................. 8 1ǃᴀԡ䋻Ꮥ೼ϡৠ㉏ൟ㒣⌢໡㢣Ёⱘ԰⫼ϡৠ ............................................................................................. 8 2ǃᡔᴃ䖯ℹ᥼ࡼⱘ㒣⌢๲䭓 ............................................................................................................................ 9 3ǃ㒣⌢໡㢣䰊↉ⱘ㕢‫ߚܗ‬ᵤ .......................................................................................................................... 11 ಯǃ㕢‫ܗ‬ᕅડܼ⧗䌘ѻӋḐ῵ൟϢ⌕ࡼߎষ⧚䆎 ................................................................................................ 17 Ѩǃ㕢‫ࡼ⌕ܗ‬ᗻ਼ᳳབԩߦߚ੠ᑺ䞣˛ ................................................................................................................ 18 ݁ǃ㕢‫ܗ‬Ϣ䌘ѻ਼ᳳⱘ݇㋏ .................................................................................................................................... 23 1ǃ䌘ѻ਼ᳳϢ㕢‫ ㋏݇ⱘܗ‬.............................................................................................................................. 23 2ǃଚકӋḐ⊶ࡼᇍЁ೑ӕϮ߽⍺ⱘӴᇐ....................................................................................................... 26 ϗǃ೼ᑓНѠ‫ܗ‬Ḛᶊϟᇍ 2009 ᑈ Q4-2010 ᑈ Q1 ᡩ䌘䍟࢓᥼䆎˖ᇍ‫ކ‬䌀ؐᇚोೳ䞡ᴹ ............................... 30 1ǃЁ೑ᇚ៤Ў೑䰙䌘䞥佪䗝 .......................................................................................................................... 30 ܿǃܼ⧗Ā䍙乱ā⌕ࡼᗻৢ䘫⮛ǃ㳄ӣӥ⳴䌘ᴀ੠ᵕ䰤ग़৆Ḝ՟..................................................................... 31 2ǃ㳄ӣⱘܼ⧗⌕ࡼᗻϢ “䌀ؐᇍ‫ކ‬ā ........................................................................................................... 33 3ǃग़৆ᵕ䰤Ḝ՟ .............................................................................................................................................. 34 䰘ᔩ˖ Ёֵㄪ⬹㒘໪∛ߚᵤ䞡⚍݇⊼ⱘकܿϾᣛᷛ .......................................................................................... 35