中级宏观经济学(英文版)1概述Intermediate Macroeconomics

The economy in the LR (Growth)
GDP Per Capita China (constant 95 US$)
1.00E+03 8.00E+02 6.00E+02 4.00E+02 2.00E+02 0.00E+00
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Grading
Homework：20%
Quizzes: 20% (Sep. & Nov.)
Mid-term: 25% (Oct.)
Final:
35%
Extra-credit: 5%
(attendance and participation)
Calendar
9.29 10.1-10.7 12.15 12.19 12.20-12.30
Policy Debate
How to make policy in an uncertain world? 1) Should policy be active or passive 2) Should policy be conducted by rule or
by discretion? Government debt and budget deficit 1) Ricardian Equivalence 2) Other thoughts about government debt
--- What kind? Portfolio (stock market; financial system) Direct (form;sectors;areas)
--- What scale? ……
ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้
Why learn Macroeconomics
1. The macroeconomy affects society’s wellbeing.
Inflation Rate % (consumer prices)
30
20
10
0
-110978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Year
China
United States
The Economy in the Short Run
Introduction to economic fluctuations Aggregate Demand Aggregate Supply
GDP Per Capita U.S.(constant 95 US$)
3.50E+04 3.00E+04 2.50E+04 2.00E+04 1.50E+04 1.00E+04 5.00E+03 0.00E+00
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
1. The economy in the long run 2. The economy in the short run 3. Policy debate 4. Open economy policy 5. More microeconomics behind
macroeconomics*
The economy in the LR (Growth)
Intermediate Macroeconomics 中级宏观经济学
Text books
Macroeconomics, N. Gregory Mankiw World Publisher
《宏观经济学》(第4版) 格里高利•曼昆 人民大学出版社，2000年
参考书：《全球视角的宏观经济学》 捷弗里·萨科斯等著，费方域等译 上海三联书店·上海人民出版社 1997
Example (Unemployment)
Individual impact --- consumption --- investment --- other individual decisions Politics --- election
Contents in Macroeconomics
Quiz 1 National Day Last day of class Office hours Final
Other issues
No make-up exam (except for special cases) No “Incomplete” 9.23-9.25 drop/add Special actions (8th week)
Economics
Studies human behavior
--- Uncertainty
*** It depends… ***
on what? --- factors Why? --- intuitions How? --- logic Conclusions?
Economics
Should you get married? Well, it depends. (Yes! You’re right! )
Lionel Robbins (Cambridge, 1898-1984)
Economics is a science that studies human behavior as a relationship between ends (wants) and scarce means (scarcity) that have alternate use.
associated with: ➢ 920 more suicides ➢ 650 more homicides ➢ 4000 more people admitted to state mental
institutions ➢ 3300 more people sent to state prisons ➢ 37,000 more deaths ➢ Increases in domestic violence and homelessness
The economy in the LR (Unemployment)
Unemployment Rate
10
8
6
4
2 0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Year
China United States
The economy in the LR (Money and Inflation)
2. The macroeconomy affects your wellbeing
3. The macroeconomy affects politics
Example (Unemployment)
Social impact --- Each 1% increase in the unemployment rate is
Exchange rate The Mundell-Fleming model The Small Open Economy (SOE) under
floating exchange rates The SOE under fixed exchange rates Should exchange rates be floating or fixed?
Budget Deficit (U.S.)
1.00E+13
5.00E+12
0.00E+00
-5.00E+12
$
-1.00E+13 -1.50E+13
-2.00E+13
-2.50E+13
-3.00E+13
-3.50E+131979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
Year
Open Economy Policy
--- the one? --- she/he want to get married as well? --- age --- personality & life style --- psychological cost ……
Economics
Should the developing countries liberalize the foreign investment?
Government Debt and Budget Deficit
中国政府财政赤字（亿元）
500
0
-500
亿元
-1000 -1500
-2000
-2500
-3000 1978 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000
年份
Government Debt and Budget Deficit
Economics
Jacob Viner (Harvard, 1892-1970) --- “a thing that the economists do”
John Maynard Keynes (Cambridge, 1883-1946) --- “an easy subject, at which few excel!”