英美报刊翻译完整版

How China runs the world economy

中国如何引领世界经济

Jul 28th 2005

From The Economist print edition

Global wages, profits, prices and interest rates are increasingly being influenced by events in China

1 “IF YOU want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you w ant ten years of Chinese proverb crudely sums up how the entry of China's massive labour force into the global economy may prove to be the most profound change for 50, and perhaps even for 100, years.

“一年之计，莫如树谷；十年之计，莫如树木；终身之计，莫如树人。”

中国这句老话可以直白地概括说明为什么庞大的中国劳动力大军进入全球经济如何会是50年、甚或100年间最为深刻的变化。

2 China, along with the other emerging giants, India, Brazil and the former Soviet Union, has effectively doubled the global labour force, hugely boosting the world's potential output and hence its future prosperity. China's growth rate is not exceptional compared with previous or current emerging economies in Asia, but China is having a more dramatic effect on the world economy because of two factors: not only does it have a huge, cheap workforce, but its economy is also unusually open to trade. As a result, China's development is not just a powerful driver of global growth; its impact on other economies is also far more pervasive

中国连同其他正在崛起的大国印度、巴西和前苏联国家使全球劳动力翻了一番，大大提高了世界的潜在产出，因而未来的繁荣前景更加光明。

较之以前或目前的亚洲新兴经济体，中国的经济增长率没有什么了不起，但是中国对世界经济的影响较大，这是由于两个方面的原因：拥有廉价的劳动力大军；中国经济是开放型经济，而且贸易开放程度异乎寻常。因此，中国的发展不仅仅是全球经济增长的强大驱动力，而且对其他经济体的影响也广泛得多。

3 Beijing's new influence was clear from the shockwaves in global currency, bond and commodity markets last week after it announced that the yuan will no longer be

pegged to the dollar. Until a couple of years ago nobody cared much that the Chinese yuan was pegged to the dollar. Recently, though, this link has become one of the hottest issues in international politics, widely blamed in America for its huge trade deficit.

北京上周宣布人民币不再盯住美元，此事给全球货币、债券和商品市场带来冲击波，北京具有的影响力由此可见一斑。就在几年前，谁都不太在乎人民币是否盯住美元。然而，由于巨额贸易逆差受到了美国广泛指责，这种联系最近也成了国际政治的一个热门话题，

4 Last week's 2.1% revaluation of the yuan is trivial and unlikely to dent America's trade deficit.More important is the breaking of the yuan's formal link to the dollar and the shift to a so-called “managed float” against a basket of currencies. In theory, this allows considerable scope for a further rise in the yuan against the dollar, though it is unclear by how much the Chinese authorities will allow the yuan to climb.

上周人民币升值2.1%，这种很小的幅度无法填补美国巨额贸易赤字留下的大坑。人民币正式宣布与美元脱钩，转而实行所谓的一篮子浮动利率管理机制，，这是更为显著的变化。尽管目前还不大清楚中国政府允许人民币升值的程度有多大，理论上讲这种变化使人民币对美元的升值空间更大。

5 Even if last week's adjustment was timid, it could mark an important turning point. It is certainly a step in the right direction for China itself, as greater currency flexibility will give it more room to use monetary policy to steer the economy. More interesting are the implications for the world economy. This might be the beginning of the end of what has been dubbed a revived Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates between China (and other Asian economies) and America.

尽管上周中国调整人民币步伐很小，但却具有转折性意义，无疑是向着正确方向迈出一步，巨额的货币流通能力使得中国可以运用货币政策掌控经济的空间更大了。更为有趣的是对世界经济产生了深刻影响。它标志着中美实行固定汇率、一个翻版的刚刚复活的布雷顿森林体系的终结。

The dragon's breath

6 Under this arrangement, China has provided cheap finance to America's consumers