财政学缩版

–福利经济学主要依靠基本的微观经济学工具进 行分析，主要是无差异曲线(indifference curves). • 考虑一个二人经济体： –2 people (Adam & Eve) –2 commodities (Apples & Figs) –Fixed supply of commodities (e.g., on a desert island)
• 因果性与相关性（Causation vs. Correlation）
• 实验研究（Experimental Studies）
Tools of Positive Analysis
– 有偏估计（Biased estimates）；反事实条件 （Counterfactual）；随机研究（randomized study） – – – – 道德风险（Ethical issues） 技术问题（Technical problems） 反馈问题（Response bias） 实验持续的影响Impact of limited duration of experiment – 实验的推广问题Generalization of results to other populations, settings, and related treatments – “黑箱”面Black box aspect of experiments
Increase in public welfare Decline in highways
Other Public welfare Highways Education
Source: Economic Report of the President [2006, p. 383].
Figure 1.4: Composition of federal taxes (1965 and 2005)
Other Social insurance Corporate tax Individual income tax
Source: Economic Report of the President [2006, p. 377].
Figure 1.5: Composition of state and local taxes (1965 and 2002)
Tools of Positive Analysis
• 准实验研究的缺陷
– 不能真实地模仿处理组的随机分派 – 能够应用的研究问题有限 – 如何将其结果推广到其他背景存在困难
Tools of Normative Analysis
• 福利经济学：研究各种经济状态的社会合意性 的经济理论的一个分支。
• 财政学: 也称公共部门经济学或公共经济学，是以 政府收支活动及其对资源配置与收入分配的影响为 研究对象的一门学科. • 因对政府在社会中作用的看法存在差异而存在不同 的政府观：
– 有机论：个人只有在有助于社会目标时才有价值；而目 标是应该由政府来决定的。 – 机械论：政府是为了促进个人目标的实现而人为设立的 东西；政府应如何协调个人相互冲突的目标尚无定论 （自由主义者与民主社会主义者）
Lecture one
Public Finance and it’s analysis implements
Curriculum website: /jrxynew/kczl/kjzl.jsp?js=all&cou=all
Public Finance and Ideology
• 支出类型（Types of government expenditure）
• 政府预算
Understand the Government expansion
• 政府年度支出是一个粗略而有用的尺度：
– 通货膨胀（Inflation） – 人口增长（Population increase） – 需要与经济规模相比较（Relativistic Size of Government expenditure）
State, Local, and Federal Government AdjustingRelative to for Adjusting for Economy Population Expenditures (selected years) Inflation
1
Total Expenditures (billions)
The Legal Framework and Government
• 政府架构：宪法框架下的公共权力组织 形式
– 联邦政府（Federal government） – 州政府（State governments） – 地方政府（Local governments）
• 如何理解政府规模
The Size of Government
Social insurance and individual income tax have become more important
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1965 2005
Corporate and other taxes have become less important
Edgeworth Box y
r
Fig leaves per year
Eve
0’
u
v
w
0 Adam
x Apples per year
s
Indifference curves in Edgeworth Box
Eve
r
E2 Fig leaves per year E3
E1
0’
A3 A2 A1 0 s Apples per year Further
3,627 5,858 7,679 10,289 11,461 13,066
24.3% 28.4% 30.2% 32.2% 29.4% 31.1%
*Conversion to 2005 dollars done using the GDP deflator
Source: Calculations based on Economic Report of the President, 2006 (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 2006), pp. 280,284,323,379
• 实验研究的缺陷（Pitfalls of Experimental Studies）
Tools of Positive Analysis
• 观察实验（Observational study） – 用实验环境之 外观察和测定的现实行为所获取的数据进行的研究 • 数据的获得：
– 调研（Surveys) – 管理记录（Administrative records） – 政府数据（Governmental data）
United States
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [2006]. Figures are for 2005.
Figure 1.2: Composition of federal expenditures (1965 and 2005)
– 利用观察数据但依赖研究人员掌控之外的环境，自然导致随 机分配
• 进行准实验研究（Conducting a Quasi-Experimental Study）
– 双重差异准实验Difference-in-difference quasiexperiments – 工具变量准实验Instrumental Variables quasi-experiments – 回归间断准实验Regression-Discontinuity QuasiExperiments
– 政府雇员数量（Number of workers） – 政府年度支出规模（Annual expenditures）
– 购买性支出（ases of goods and services） – 转移性支出（Transfers of income） – 利息支出（Interest payments） – 统一预算（Unified budget） – 规制预算（Regulatory budget）
Property tax less important
0% 1965 2002
Source: Economic Report of the President [2006, p. 383].
Tools of Positive Analysis
• The Role of Theory： Economic models
Adam
Making Adam better off without Eve becoming worse off Eve
r
Eg Fig leaves per year g h
A Pareto Efficient Allocation
decline in Defense
Source: Economic Report of the President [2006, p. 377].
Figure 1.3 Composition of state and local expenditures (1965 and 2002)
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1965 2002
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Property tax 20% 10% Inidividual income tax Sales tax Other
Individual tax more important
Grants from federal government Corporation tax