亚洲银行-避免中等收入陷阱(E)

(Measured by the 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
Malaysia Malaysia Thailand Thailand Indonesia Indonesia Philippines Philippines Viet Nam Vietnam
(Measured by the 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre, 2003; the Central Bank of the Republic of China; and IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010 (for updating).
Low endowment Poverty trap Moderate endowment Middle income trap High endowment High income
Middle Income Trap (cont.)



Many countries can reach middle income by liberalization and integration, but reaching higher income requires strong policy effort to stimulate private dynamism. Growth based on FDI, big projects, natural resources, or locational advantages will eventually end. The true source of development is value creation by humans (knowledge, skills, technology). Policies and institutions must promote human capital formation. Such policies are possible even under globalization, but they are different from past policies. I call it ―proactive industrial policy.‖
USSR Czeco'kia
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre, 2003; the Central Bank of the Republic of China; and IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010 (for updating).
Avoiding the Middle Income Trap:
Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Viet Nam
Kenichi Ohno (VDF/GRIPS) Revised January 2011
Contents


Middle income trap Proactive industrial policy Common policy menu for enhancing industrial capability Malaysia’s ―New Economic Model‖ Recommended actions for Viet Nam
2010
Stages of Catching-up Industrialization
Preindustrialization Initial FDI absorption Internalizing parts and components Internalizing skills and technology Internalizing innovation
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre, 2003; the Central Bank of the Republic of China; and IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010 (for updating).
Speed of Catching Up: East Asia
Per capita real income relative to US
100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% Japan Singapore Hong Kong Taipei,China Taiwan S. Korea S. Korea
2010
Africa
Per capita real income relative to US
100% 90% 80% Egypt 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Uganda 0% Ghana Kenya Madagascar Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Tunisia Botswana Cote d'Ivoire
(Measured by the 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
1950
1955
1960
Biblioteka Baidu1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre, 2003; the Central Bank of the Republic of China; and IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010 (for updating).
STAGE TWO Have supporting industries, but still under foreign guidance
STAGE THREE Management & technology mastered, can produce high quality goods
Japan, US, EU
2010
South Asia
Per capita real income relative to US
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% India Sri Lanka Pakistan Bangladesh
(Measured by the 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
What Is a Middle Income Trap?


A developmental trap occurs when a country is stuck at the income dictated by given resources and initial advantages, and cannot rise beyond that level (only luck and no effort). The level of income where the trap may occur depends on endowment of resources and advantages.
STAGE ONE STAGE ZERO Monoculture, subsistence agriculture, aid dependency Simple manufacturing under foreign guidance
Thailand, Malaysia
Rep. of Korea, Taipei,China
2010
Zambia
Russia & Eastern Europe
Per capita real income relative to US
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Hungary 50% Poland 40% Romania 30% Yugoslavia 20% 10% 0%
(Measured by the 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars)
China China, People’s Rep. of
0% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2010
Sources: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre, 2003; the Central Bank of the Republic of China; and IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010 (for updating).
Creativity Technology absorption
STAGE FOUR Full capability in innovation and product design as global leader
Arrival of manufacturing FDI
Agglomeration (acceleration of FDI)
Viet Nam
Poor countries in Africa
Glass ceiling for ASEAN countries (Middle Income Trap)
Viet Nam’s Challenge


7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2
Thanks to Doi Moi and large inflows of FDI and ODA, Viet Nam has reached lower middle income (pc GDP of $1,200 in 2010). But policies to upgrade human capital are not yet established. Viet Nam does simple assembly with unskilled labor. FDI will leave and de-industrialization will occur as wages rise and integration deepens. Without domestic value creation, Viet Nam will surely face a middle income trap.
Latin America
Per capita real income relative to US
100% 90% 80% 70% Chile 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Colombia Mexico Peru Urguay Venezuela Argentina Brazil