投资学(Investment 8th)讲义1
投资学讲义.doc
投资学讲义第一章財務管理概論恐龍蛋遊戲軟體設計公司,前一陣子推出「水滸傳」網路遊戲軟體。
這個公司成立迄今已有三年,已推出四個頗受市場歡迎的遊戲軟體,公司預計本年度的營收將達2億元。
目前,這家公司資本額為2千萬元,此外,為了籌措營運所需資金,公司準備將自有的廠房及倉庫抵押給銀行以取得4千萬元擔保放款。
這家公司還計畫進一步將營業項目擴展到商用以及教育應用軟體的開發設計。
為因應這些擴充計劃,公司財務副總經理發現現有的資金籌措方式將不足以應付未來公司對資金的需求。
更嚴重的是,公司將立即面臨短期營運現金不足的問題。
這家公司所面臨的幾個問題也正是財務管理這門課所關注的課題:(1)這家公司的未來投資策略應是什麼?(即,這家公司為何要進入商用及教育應用軟體的開發與生產?)如何評估並選擇最佳的投資計劃?(即,錢怎麼投資?)(2)一旦選定投資計畫,公司如何籌措投資計畫所需的資金?(即,錢從那裡來?)(3)這家公司日常營運需要多少週轉金?(即,如何管理現金?)企業選擇最適的投資策略前,必須先確立企業的經營目標。
選定後,經營目標的達成須借助投資計畫的評估,選擇以及執行。
投資計畫的評估,選擇就是投資決策的範疇。
投資決策(或稱資本預算決策,capital budgeting decisions),就是將公司資本支出預算用於購置公司營運所需的固定資產(如:廠房、機器設備)以及無形資產(如:商譽、商標及專利權),而公司經營目標就是追求所購置的資產創造最大的價值且必須大於資本支出。
亦即,若企業投資決策的目標是追求所購置的資產所創造的淨價值最大,則企業經營績效勢必取決於各項投資計畫能為股東創造多少的價值?故企業營運最終的目標就應是追求企業所有人所增加的財富極大。
1. 何謂財務管理?假設朱一決定自行創業成立公司生產CPU專用的散熱風扇。
公司設立前,朱一必須聘請會計、財務以及採購管理人員負責採購生產原物料以及財務、人事管理,找到合適的廠房、機器設備,並招募到足夠的工人從事生產。
[经济学]投资学讲义(1)
《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》上将投资定义为 资本形成---用来生产的资源的获得或创造。 我国学术界所指的投资是指将一定数量的资金或 资本投放于某种对象和事业,以取得一定收益的 活动,也指为获得一定收益而投入某种活动的资 金或资本。 投资可分为实物投资和金融投资。
2018/11/20
4
1.1 投资
2018/11/20
14
1.2 金融资产
实物资产(Real assets):创造收入的资产,且 一旦拥有就可以直接提供服务。包括土地、建筑、 机器、知识等。代表一个经济的生产能力,决定 一个社会的财富。 金融资产(Financial assets):实物资产的要求 权(Claims on real assets ),定义实物资产在投 资者之间的配置。
2018/11/20
11
1.1 投资
从金融经济学的角度出发,直观上看,投资者在 期初不需要任何成本就能够构造一个投资组合, 在期末时,收益为非负,而且至少存在一种状态 使投资者能够从这个组合中获得正收益,这就是 套利机会。 如果不存在套利机会,那么相应的证券市场就被 称之为是无套利的。 在新古典经济学框架下,基础资产定价模型和衍 生资产定价模型都是建立在无套利均衡条件下。
2018/11/20 9
1.1 投资
相关概念的界定 投机 (Speculation):短期投资,也可定义为获得价差利 润的交易;金融市场上投机者的存在,为转移风险提供 了机会,创造了条件(例如期货市场中套期保值者把风 险转移给投机者等等),而且增加了市场的流动性。
套期保值 (Hedging):为了规避价格波动风险,指通过 期货市场和现货市场价格同向变动的关系,在期货市场 和现货市场做相反方向的交易,从而达到用期货市场盈 利弥补现货市场亏损的目的。 提问:如果你是未来的购房者,预计未来房价处于上升 趋势,如果存在房产期货市场,你如何实现风险规避?
投资学第八章课件
主要内容
一、非传统风险转移的基本介绍
二、非传统保单产品 三、与保险有关的证券化产品 四、应急资本工具
一、非传统风险转移的基本介绍
1、传统风险转移的手段
2、非传统风险转移的含义 3、非传统风险转移的背景和发展阶段 4、非传统风险转移的参与人
1、传统风险转移的手段
控制性的风险转移——合同转移 保险转移——购买保险 非保险融资转移——衍生品和或有融资计划 上述手段的不足与限制?
主要用途:自留风险、管理风险和风险融资,而不是转移风险 主要功能:作为现金流量的时间选择工具,而不是损失转移工具 操作要点:控制在多年期的损失、投资收入和应计准备金之间的时 间选择风险 主要形式:追溯型有限风险计划和预期型有限风险计划 参与人:可以作为保险公司和再保险公司之间的保险安排,也可以 作为原保险公司和其它实体之间的保险安排
•自留 •第一层 •第二层 •第三层 •第四层 •第五层
每项索赔的10万美元 从Am Home Assurance and Home Indemnity得到1000万美元 从11家公司得到赔偿2.9亿美元 从5家公司得到赔偿一亿美元 从伦敦劳合社的68个辛迪加得到赔偿1亿美元 从伦敦劳合社的65个辛迪加得到赔偿1亿美元
商业保险共保体
24亿
单位: 新台币
伞形保单 目的:为保单限额以上的部分提供多种风险保障 例子: 假设Lilly Inc. 购买了以下一组保单: 一个汽车责任保单:为每一事件自留额为$100,000以 上的损失提供$1,000,000的保障 一个产品责任保单:为每一事件自留额$1,000,000以上 的损失提供$10,000,000的保障 一个伞形保单:为每一事件中上面两个保单限额以上的 部分提供$20,00,000的保障
Bodie投资学第8版第1章投资概论共35页
(security selection) top-down investment vs. bottom-up
strategy
2020/6/13 青岛大学经是有效的
风险-收益的权衡(risk-return trade-off)
2020/6/13 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
12
Google2019-2009走势图
市值 1460亿
美元
2020/6/13 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
13
2020/6/13 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
市值 1460亿
美元
14
1.4 投资过程
储蓄(saving)、投资(investing)与安全投资 (safe investing)
2020/6/13 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
8
Table 1.1 Balance Sheet of U.S. Households, 2019
2020/6/13 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
9
Table 1.2 Domestic Net Worth
问题1:表1.1和1.2中实物资产的数据不一致,原因?(P2脚注) 问题2:概念检查问题1(P3)
Herbert B. Mayo,投资学导论(第7版),北 京大学出版社,2019
朴明根等编,证券投资学,清华大学出版 社,2019
2020/6/13 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
7
1.2 实物资产与金融资产
实物资产(Real assets):直接用于生产商品和 服务的资产。包括土地、建筑、机器、知识等。 代表一个经济的生产能力,决定一个社会的财富。
Bodie投资学第8版第1章投资概论
➢ 积极投资(active management) ➢ 消极投资(passive management)
2020/8/30 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
17
1.6 金融市场的主体(players)
(1)家庭部门(the household sector):既 是金融市场资金的主要供给者,又是投资 者。
资金的时间价值
不确定性(Uncertainty)——风险性
如果证券没有风险是否意味着没有收益?
收益性:增加投资者的财富来满足未来的消费
2020/8/30 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
5
1.1 投资与投资学
1.1.2 投资学(Investments) 研究投资行为及均衡定价的科学。
投资学是金融学(finance)的两大核心课程之一。 概念辨析:金融学与finance
金融资产(Financial assets):实物资产的要求 权( Claims on real assets ),定义实物资产在 投资者之间的配置。
➢ 金融资产的价值与其物质形态没有任何关系:股票可 能并不比印制股票的纸张更值钱。
➢ 整个社会财富的总量与金融资产数量无关,金融资产 不是社会财富的代表。
2020/8/30 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
2
1.1 投资与投资学
关于股市: 一个人在书店,对店员说:我想买本书,里面没 有凶杀,却暗含杀机,没有爱情,却爱恨难舍, 没有侦探,却时时警惕。你能给我介绍一本么? “只有这个”,店员说:
“中国股市行情”。
2020/8/30 青岛大学经济学院
张宗强
3
1.1 投资与投资学
2020/8/30 青岛大学经济学院
投资学讲义(DOC 246页)
假設朱一決定自行創業成立公司生產CPU專用的散熱風扇。公司設立前,朱一必須聘請會計、財務以及採購治理人員負責採購生產原物料以及財務、人事治理,找到合適的廠房、機器設備,並招募到足夠的工人從事生產。
依財務治理的用語,朱一這些決策已涉及了廠房、機器設備的購置或租賃、存貨以及人力資源治理與運用等投資行為。這些投資所需支出等於公司應籌措的金額。假如CPU散熱專用風扇的銷售狀況如事前的預期,扣除各項成本支出後,所剩餘的确实是公司投資所創造的價值。當初朱一因此願意成立公司生產CPU散熱用風扇,無非确实是預期到這些投資的活動能為朱一及公司其他股東在未來創造最大的價值。購買廠房、機器、土地或累積存貨或保有現金等於公司資產的增加,這些資產投入公司與營運會為公司未來各期創造收益,這些收益若大於購置資產的支出,就表示投資計畫是值得的。由於未來的收益分屬不同期間,如何將這些收益轉換為同一單位來衡量是評估投資計畫的首要步驟。也确实是說,財務治理第一要處理确实是時間要素,如此才能給何謂「價值」找答案!為籌措執行投資計劃所需的資金,朱一可借款或發行債券或發行新股,此屬於融資決策(financing decisions)範疇。一旦決定籌措資金方式將會改變公司負債及股東權益的大小與結構比重。
公司一旦決定投資計劃後,接下來的工作确实是籌措執行這個投資計畫所需的資金。籌資方式則表現在資產負債表的右邊。資產負債表右邊要紧的項目有負債(debt)以及股東權益(shareholders’ equity)。如同資產一样,負債亦可區分為流動負債(current debt),如:應付帳款及一年期以下的貸款或負債以及長期負債(long-term debt)。而股東權益則是資產價值扣除負債總額的殘值,當資產價值大於負債總額時,股東權益才是正數,這也是為何股東權益屬於股東對公司資產的殘餘價值(資產價值扣除負債)的請求權。一個典型的資產負債表可表現如下:
《投资学》(第八章)
Investment Principles
INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES
INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES.
投 资投 学资
学
第一节 投资的微观自我调节机制
8.1.1 投资微观自我调节机制的一般特征
1.企业的一般特征
(1)它是一个具有经营自主性的生产经营组织; (2)它是一个具有经营利益性的利益单元; (3)它是一个具有经营责任性的经济责任主体。
(2)充分发育的要素市场。 (3)健全的宏观调控系统。 (4)良好的经济信息系统。
第二节
投资的宏观调控机制
8.2.1 投资宏观调控的意义及特点
1.投资宏观调控的意义
(1)搞好投资宏观调控是实现投资体制改革目标的重要 内容。 (2)搞好投资宏观调控可以为经济体制改革创造良好的 经济环境。 (3)搞好投资宏观调控,是规范市场投资主体,建立现代 企业制度的重要条件。
Investment Principles
Investment Principles
INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES
INVESTMENT PLES.
投 资投 学资
学
⑥ 国务院确定的其他货币政策工具。
中央银行对投资及其他经济活动的调控主要是通过调控各专业
银行及其他金融机构的业务活动来实现的。中央银行通过运用以 上几种货币政策工具来控制货币发行量、调控货币供应量和进行 特殊的信用管理。
3.监督机制
投资的监督调控,是国家依据投资政策和有关经济法规对投资
活动进行监督检查,以保证投资活动的规范、正常运行,实现投 资预期目标的活动。投资监督调控的根本任务,是维护国家对投 资管理的有关方针、政策及预期目标,以保证投资活动按宏观预 定的目标健康正常运行。投资监督调控的具体内容包括投资活动 的合法性、全局性和效益性。 投资监督调控依据调控对象性质的不同,可划分为法律监督调 控、经济监督调控和行政监督调控三种形式。
投资学(Investment 8th)讲义1
Investment InstitutionsWhat are Investment institutions? Contractual savings institutions -Insurance companies -Pension fundsInvestment intermediaries -Mutual funds / unit trusts -Investment trusts -Hedge funds-Private equity company❝Investment institution is a financial intermediary (company) engaged in investing in, and managing, a portfolio of securities on behalf of their shareholders. ❝Indirect investment in capital/money marketinstruments via an investment institution is the most popular way for individuals to invest surplus funds ❝In the UK, 50 –60% of equities and bonds are held and managed by investment institutions ❝Benefits: diversified portfolio, professional managements❝All investment companies charge a fee (annual expense ratio) to shareholders to pay for theoperating costs and the management fee.❝Depositary institutions◦Intermediaries with a significant proportion of their funds derived from customer deposits, e.g. Building societies. Short-term liabilities.❝Contractual savings institutions◦Typically acquire funds at periodic intervals on a contractual basis❝Investment intermediaries◦Collective investment funds, Finance companies,Investment banks, Securities firms❝Two major groups: Insurance companies and Pension funds ❝Long-term liabilities❝Liquidity of their assets is less important than for depositary institutions –they can predict with greater accuracy their future payments due to customers❝Hence, they can invest a greater proportion of funds in long-term securities (bonds,equities)❝Primary objective is to protect policyholders (firms and individuals) from adverse events ❝Receive premiums from policyholders and promise compensation if specified events occur❝Two main segments: general insurance and life insurance❝Protection against personal injury and liabilities such as accidents, theft and fire❝Usually over a fixed time period e.g. 1 year ❝Claims usually made soon after the event so liabilities are mostly short term❝Hence they hold a greater proportion of liquid assets than life insurers. Holding financial assets might be viewed as a byproduct of the business.❝Some authors (e.g. B&T) do not view this category as an investment intermediary❝Protects the policyholder in the event of death, illness or retirement; hence long-term liabilities❝Term assurance, Whole-of-life policy, Endowment policy, Annuities❝Term assurance: provides insurance cover, for specifiedperiod, against the risk of death. If the insured survivesthe specified period then no payment is made.❝Whole-of-life policy pays a capital sum on the death ofthe person assured, whenever that event occurs.❝Endowment policy pays a capital sum at the end ofsome specified term or earlier if the assured dies withinthe term.-The premium for Whole-of-life and endowment policieswill be higher than for term assurance.❝Annuities: A policyholder pay an initial lump sumwhich used by the insurance company to providean agreed income until death.-The insurance company immediately creates a fund❝Risk: certain sums are guaranteed to be paid in thefuture and these sums exceed the value of thepremiums over the life of the contract.❝Match the term structure of its assets and liabilities❝Invest in long-term assets e.g. bonds, equities andmortgages.❝Provide retirement income (in the form ofannuities) to employees covered by a pension plan❝Personal scheme and public (state) scheme❝Funded scheme and unfunded (pay-as-you-go)scheme❝Funded scheme: Receive contributions fromemployers and/or employees and invest thesefunds in assets, including equities and bonds.Returns from the investment are used to paybenefits to members of the scheme.❝Two main types of funded scheme: defined benefit(DB) and defined contribution (DC)❝DB: the sponsor agrees to pay members ofthe scheme a pension equal to apredetermined percentage of their finalsalary (average salary), subject to themember‟s years of service❝DC: the return on the investmentsdetermines pension benefits❝Occupational schemes where the sponsor isthe employer have historically been DB,while private pensions are DC❝Risk: benefits to be paid are not known with certainty;inflation complications as it increases the benefits to bepaid by fund.❝Benefit from tax deferral: in the UK, contributions arenot taxable, pensioner pays income tax❝Pension fund trustees will determine the overallinvestment strategy❝They will often decide what proportion of assets to beheld in different asset classes❝Asset mix will be influenced by the maturity of the fund❝Long-term liabilities hence long-term assets❝Index-linked bonds, Equities❝Investment companies are classified, depending on whether their own capitalisation (number of shares outstanding) is constantly changing or fixed:-Open-end : capitalisation constantly changing; new investors buy additional shares from the company and some existing shareholders sell their shares back to the company.-Closed-end : fixed capitalization; share traded onexchange.open-ended❝Mutual funds / unit trusts❝Open-ended investment companies OEICsClosed ended❝Investment trusts ❝Hedge funds❝Private equity company❝Pool resources from many individuals andcompanies and invest these in a range of assets ❝Provide opportunities for small investors to investin a diversified fund at low cost❝Take advantage of lower transaction costs in trading larger blocks of securities❝Trusts in the legal sense; controlled and monitored by trustees; who act as guardian of the assets on behalf of the beneficial owners ❝Investment decisions❝When an investor buys a stake in a unit trust, he/she purchases a new unit in the fund (unless matched with a seller by the fund manager)❝Open-ended fund where the size of the fund can varyaccording to the number of contributors to the fund ❝Price of each unit reflects current value of the fund divided by the number of outstanding units❝All sales and purchases of units are made with the trust manager.❝Do not trade on stock exchange.❝Dual pricing structure: offer price (investors buy units)and bid price (investors sell units back to the trust)❝Annual management fee (usually 0.5 -1% of the funds under management), plus the bid-offer spread on buying and selling units❝Limited in the amount that can be invested in any single security❝Total return for a mutual fund includes reinvestment dividends and capital gain.❝A cumulative total return measures the actual performance over 3, 5 or 10 years.❝In Jan 2009, 8,000 domestic mutual funds withassets of $9.4 trillion in the US.❝Short-term funds:-Money market mutual funds ❝Long-term funds: -Capital market funds;-Equity (stock) funds, Bond funds or Hybrid(balanced) funds (hold combination of stocks and bonds)-Index funds: mutual funds holding an managed portfolio of bonds or stocks designed to match particular market index, such as S&P 500. Has low expenses ratio.❝OEICs operate similarly to a unit trust in the sense that they are open-ended❝But an OEIC has a company structure and can be listed on the stock exchange ❝Shares will reflect the value of the fund ❝Shares will have a single price (rather than the separate buying and selling prices indicated for unit trusts)❝Companies whose business is the investment of funds in financial assets.❝A closed-end fund, only able to raise more funds through rights issue shares or borrowing (bonds) ❝Not a trust in the legal sense; limited liability company with listed shares (traded in stock market).❝Investors can purchase ordinary shares of the ITC ❝A portfolio, managed by ITC‟s board of directors who determine the investment strategy❝Not faced with outflow of funds, so investment strategy does not depend on maintaining cash flows to meet future liabilities❝The existence of borrowed funds in the capitalstructure implies a …gearing effect‟ on the value of the ITC shares❝Net asset value (NAV) per share is the value of assetsless debt divided by number of issued shares-E.g. ITC capital structure: £8m in equities (4m shares) + £2m debt. Thus the NAV per share = £2-If the value of ITC asset portfolio were to doubled to £20m, then the NAV per would increase to £4.5 (£18m/4m shares)-A 100% in the value of assets held has led to an increase in the NAV per share of 125%❝The gearing effect is of benefit to shareholders in a rising stock market.❝The hedge funds are largely unregulated❝Reputation is as risky funds, shrouded by mystery and only accessible to the wealthy.❝According to IFSL, the number of hedge funds increased from 4,000 with $324bn of assets in 1999 to peak of 11,000 with $2,150bn in 2007, and then declined to 10,000 hedge funds and $1,500bn by the start of 2009. ❝There is no unique definition of hedge fund since it is an industry term rather than a legal term❝“Includes a multitude of skill -based investment strategies with a broad range of risk and returnobjectives. A common element is the use of investment and risk management skills to seek positive returns regardless of market direction.”❝A hedge fund is an actively managed investment fund ❝Seeks an attractive …absolute return‟, a return whether the market go up or down.❝Do not follow any benchmark, but rather just try to generate high returns (larger than ordinary available return) while managing risks, by exploiting various market opportunities❝Typical strategies include -Short selling,-Borrowing, Leverage -Use of derivatives❝Fees include a fixed fee and management fee e.g. 1-2% of assets plus 20-25% of upside performance.Hedge fundsMutual funds and pension fundsInvestment trusts FreedomLimitation on borrowing, short selling, and the use of derivatives May borrow Limitations on short selling, and the use of derivatives❝Typical investors◦Wealthy individuals ◦Pension funds◦Other hedge funds, creating …funds of hedge funds‟ –diversity in strategy and risk❝Returns and risk can vary a great deal among the different hedge fund strategies❝Market neutral (or relative value arbitrage) funds ◦Attempt to produce returns that have no or low correlation with e.g. equity markets◦Highly quantitative portfolio construction◦Concentrate on the relative value of individual shares, bonds, currencies ...◦Commonly apply arbitrage strategies-e.g. exploit mispricing between an underlying asset and a derivative instrument-Concentrate on the difference in performance of two given securities in homogenous universe. E.g. belief that BP will do better than X in oil firm; go long on BP and short on X.-Take position with convertible bonds❝Long/short funds-Generally invest in equity and bonds, taking directional bets on individual security or sector-Analyse individual companies and individual shares-Micro investors (look at individual/specific stocks)-Some may specialize in geographical sectors -Others may specialize in either small or large companies -E.g. 130/30-Timing is crucial-Stock-picking skill (short selling overpriced stocks and buying underpriced stocks)-Not automatically market neutral e.g. could havestrong positive correlation with equityGlobal (macro) asset funds-Look at stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities from a global point of view -Macro-investors (look at broad themes) -Have positive exposure to the market-A fund might go long in sectors they believe will provide good returns, and short on countries they believe will have negative returns❝Event driven funds-Looks to exploit special situations -Take over bids-Merger, Corporate restructuring❝A group of individuals set up a limited liabilitypartnership, might have a limited life of around 10 years.❝Make good returns by buying public companies or neglected subsidiaries at good price and turning them into more attractive business❝They will gear up with debt that a public company would not want to risk.❝Normally be turned into non-quoted company❝They get involved in the business, bringing their own expertise and give managers big incentives to improve the business❝They seek cut costs, squeeze suppliers and sell unwanted assets, sell and lease back property ❝Large amount of leverage involved❝They take their profit in a variety of ways:-Refloat the company-Sell the company to someone else in the same business -Refinancing❝The private equity market was boosted in the early 2000s.❝IFSL shows that the global private equity investment amounted to $176.6bn in 2000, this increased to $317.6bn in 2007, then hit by the credit crisis andfell to $189bn.❝In the UK, well-known firms that are or have been owned by private equity groups: Boots, Iceland, Debenhams, New Look, Kwik-Fit❝E.g. In Dec. 2003, a group of private equity firms-Texas Pacific, CVC and Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity-bough Debenhams for £1.7bn, of which £600m was their own capital.❝In two refinancing in 2004 and 2005, they reconstructed the balance sheet with new borrowings and paid themselves back £1.3bn(twice of their original capital) in about 18 months. ❝They refloated Debenhams in May 2006.Explain the different types of investment institution. Identify and analyse the factors that will influence the investment strategy applied by each type of institution.。
投资学 第8章ppt课件
确定 预测 目标
收集 整理 资料
选择 预测 方法
进行 分析 预测
修正 预测 数值
精品课件
8.2.2 市场预测
8.2 项目投资的市场调查与预测
三、市场预测的方法
调 查 综 合 法
直
观
法
指
国
标判断 际比较
法 法
移 动 平 均 法
市
场
预
测
方
法
时
间
序
列
法
指
时
季
数 间 节
1. 投资环境因素调查
政治法律环境
投资环境 因素调查
社会文化环境 科学技术环境
精品课件 经济竞争环境
8.2 项目投资的市场调查与预测
8.2.1 项目投资市场调查
市场调查的内容
精品课件
8.2 项目投资的市场调查与预测
8.2.1 项目投资市场调查
市场调查的方法 1. 按调查方法的性质分:
定量调查
平 回 周
滑 归 期
法 法 法
回
归
分
析
法
一
多
一
元 元 元
线 线 非
性 性 线
回 回 性
归 归 回
法 法 归
法
多 项 式 回 归 法
国 际 市 场 预 测 法 精品课件
8.3.1 机会成本与沉没成本
一、机会成本 机会成本的概念
8.3 项目投资的成本分析
在决策分析过程中,从多个供应方案中选取最优方案而放弃次优方案, 从而放弃了次优方案所取得的利益而成为损失。这种由于放弃次优方案 而损失的“潜在利益”就是选取最优方案的机会成本。
投资学第1章知识讲解
投资学 第1章
13
证明1:公司A的这种投资是有意义的
由于利息支出计入税前成本,因此公司A实际 税后成本为10%×(1-40%)=6%。
公司A投资于优先股的股息税后收入为: 8% -8%×(1-80%)×40%=7.36% 。
证明2:这笔交易对公司B来说亦是盈利的。
公司B通过借出资金获得利息收入,税后收益 为10%×(1-12%)=8.8%,而公司B向公 司A支付的优先股股息为8%。
合约性质:债券市场、股票市场、期货市 场、期权市场。
期限长短:货币市场和资本市场
功能:初级(一级)市场——发行市场, 二级市场——交易市场。
区别:第一市场、第二市场等
组织结构:交易所、场外市场等
投资学 第1章
8
1.2.2 金融市场的主体
(1)家庭部门(the household sector):既 是金融市场资金的主要供给者,又是投资 者。
2
概念辨析
财富( Wealth):现时收入(Present income)与未来收入(Future income)的 现值(Present value)的和。
资产(Assets):所有能储存的财富
专利、大学教育、客户关系是资产吗?
实际资产(Real assets)与金融资产 (Financial assets)
时间性:牺牲当前消费(Reduced current consumption)计划的未来消费(Planned later consumption)
资金的时间价值
不确定性(Uncertainty)——风险性
如果证券没有风险是否意味着没有收益?
收益性:增加投资者的财富来满足未来的消费
投资学 第1章
专利、大学教育、客户关系是实际资产吗?
博迪《投资学》教材精讲讲义-第1~8章【圣才出品】
六、市场参不者
5 / 73
圣才电子书
1.金融市场主体
十万种考研考证电子书、题库规频学习平台
(1)公司(企业)。公司通常筹集资金幵将其投资二厂房和训备。返些实物资产创造
的收益为该公司収行证券的投资者提供收益。
(2)家庭。家庭通常是纯储蓄者,它们质买需要融资的公司収行的证券。
1 / 73
圣才电子书 十万种考研考证电子书、题库规频学习平台
【比较】美国家庭资产负债表(如表 1-1 所示)不美国国民财富净值表(如表 1-2 所示), 可以収现实物资产不金融资产乀间存在明显的区别。家庭财富包括银行败户、企业股票戒债券 等金融资产。返些家庭金融证券对収行者杢说是负债。因此,在汇总所有的资产负债表时,金 融资产会相互抵消,叧剩下实物资产作为净资产。
3 / 73
圣才电子书 十万种考研考证电子书、题库规频学习平台
(1)提供引寻资本有效配置信息:资本价格収现和传逑; (2)给主体选择消费时机的机会:金融市场可以使个人的消费不收入在时间上分离(个 人和企业收入的生命周期); (3)在绊济主体间配置风险:资本市场将投资所固有的风险转秱给了愿意承担风险的投资 者; (4)便利公司所有权和绊营权的分离。 两权分离的优势:与业化绊营、聚集资本觃模效应、分散风险、所有权转讥丌破坏 公司运营等。 代理问题:代理问题是指公司的管理者追求自己的利益而非股东利益所产生的管理 者不股东潜在的利益冲突。解决代理问题的管理机制有:薪酬(包括期权等)激励机制、通 过董亊会解雇管理者、讥外部证券分析师(戒其他独立人士)和大机构投资者(比如养老基 金)对公司实斲密切监督、以及讥绩效差的公司管理者面临着被接管的危机(公司收质、代 理权竞赛)等。 3.公司治理和公司伦理 要想使证券市场能够有效地収挥返一功能,就必须有一定的透明度,以便投资者能够在 信息灵通的情冴下做出投资决策。如果企业可以在公司的収展前景斱面误寻公众,那举很多 决策都会出错。 公司治理和伦理危机:会计丑闻、分析师丑闻、审计师丑闻等——信用危机。 公司追求完美的声誉最终将成为企业不客户乀间构建长丽关系的关键,也是企业最有价 值的资产乀一。
投资学讲义 (1)
Fixed Income Instruments
Treasury bonds Municipal bonds Asset-backed bonds Corporate bonds
1-11
Common questions for each instrument
1-16
1-17
Municipal Bonds
Issued by:
States, counties, cities, towns, school districts
Structure:
General obligation (35%) backed by government taxation power Revenue Bonds (65%) backed by project revenues only
Similar to Treasury Bonds: pay semi-annual coupon Rated by Moody’s, S&P, and others
Initial Issue:
By investment banks, through the underwriting process
Trading:
Primarily through a dealer market connected electronically
1-20
Cooperate Bonds
Who buys?
Intermediaries, especially insurance companies
Riskiness:
Structure:
Essentials Of Investments 8th Ed Bodie 投资学精要(第八版)
Essentials Of Investments 8th Ed Bodie 投资学精要(第八版) Chapter 07 - Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing TheoryCHAPTER 07CAPITAL ASSET PRICING AND ARBITRAGE PRICINGTHEORY1. The required rate of return on a stock is related to the required rateof return on thestock market via beta. Assuming the beta of Google remains constant, the increase in the risk of the market will increase the required rate of returnon the market, and thus increase the required rate of return on Google.2. An example of this scenario would be an investment in the SMB and HML.As of yet,there are no vehicles (index funds or ETFs) to directly invest in SMB and HML. While they may prove superior to the single index model, they are not yet practical, even for professional investors.3. The APT may exist without the CAPM, but not the other way. Thus, statement a ispossible, but not b. The reason being, that the APT accepts the principleof risk and return, which is central to CAPM, without making any assumptions regardingindividual investors and their portfolios. These assumptions are necessaryto CAPM.4. E(rP) = rf + ?[E(rM) �C rf]20% = 5% + ?(15% �C 5%) ? ? = 15/10 = 1.55. If the beta of the security doubles, then so will its risk premium.The current riskpremium for the stock is: (13% - 7%) = 6%, so the new risk premium wouldbe 12%, and the new discount rate for the security would be: 12% + 7% = 19%If the stock pays a constant dividend in perpetuity, then we know from the original data that the dividend (D) must satisfy the equation for a perpetuity:Price = Dividend/Discount rate 40 = D/0.13 ? D = 40 ? 0.13 = $5.20 At the new discount rate of 19%, the stock would be worth: $5.20/0.19 = $27.37The increase in stock risk has lowered the value of the stock by 31.58%.6. The cash flows for the project comprise a 10-year annuity of $10million per year plus anadditional payment in the tenth year of $10 million (so that the total payment in the tenth year is $20 million). The appropriate discount rate for the project is:rf + ?[E(rM) �C rf ] = 9% + 1.7(19% �C 9%) = 26% Using this discount rate:10NPV = �C20 + ?t?1101.26t?101.26107-1Chapter 07 - Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing Theory7.c. False. You should invest 0.75 of your portfolio in the market portfolio, and theremainder in T-bills. Then: 8.a. The beta is the sensitivity of the stock's return to the market return. Call theaggressive stock A and the defensive stock D. Then beta is the change in the stock return per unit change in the market return. We compute eachstock's beta by calculating the difference in its return across the two scenarios divided by the difference in market return.?A?2?325?20?2.00= �C20 + [10 ? Annuity factor (26%, 10 years)] + [10 ? PV factor (26%, 10 years)] = 15.64The internal rate of return on the project is 49.55%. The highest value that beta can take before the hurdle rate exceeds the IRR is determined by:49.55% = 9% + ?(19% �C 9%) ? ? = 40.55/10 = 4.055 a. False. ? = 0 implies E(r) = rf , not zero.b. False. Investors require a risk premium for bearing systematic (i.e., market orundiversifiable) risk.?P = (0.75 ? 1) + (0.25 ? 0) = 0.75?D?3.5?145?20?0.70b. With the two scenarios equal likely, the expected rate of return is an average ofthe two possible outcomes:E(rA) = 0.5 ? (2% + 32%) = 17% E(rB) = 0.5 ? (3.5% + 14%) = 8.75%c. The SML is determined by the following: T-bill rate = 8% with a beta equal tozero, beta for the market is 1.0, and the expected rate of return for the market is:0.5 ? (20% + 5%) = 12.5% See the following graph.7-2Chapter 07 - Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing TheoryE(r) SML A M 12.5% ?D 8% D .7 1.0 2.0 ??The equation for the security market line is: E(r) = 8% + ?(12.5% �C 8%) d. The aggressive stock has a fair expected rate of return of:E(rA) = 8% + 2.0(12.5% �C 8%) = 17%The security analyst’s estimate of the expected rate of return is also 17%.Thus the alpha for the aggressive stock is zero. Similarly, the required return for the defensive stock is:E(rD) = 8% + 0.7(12.5% �C 8%) = 11.15%The security analyst’s estimate of the expected return for D is only8.75%, and hence:??D = actual expected return �C required return predicted by CAPM = 8.75% �C 11.15% = �C2.4%The points for each stock are plotted on the graph above.e. The hurdle rate is determined by the project beta (i.e., 0.7), not bythe firm’sbeta. The correct discount rate is therefore 11.15%, the fair rate of return on stock D.9. Not possible. Portfolio A has a higher beta than Portfolio B, but the expected returnfor Portfolio A is lower.7-3Chapter 07 - Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing Theory10. Possible. If the CAPM is valid, the expected rate of return compensates only forsystematic (market) risk as measured by beta, rather than the standard deviation, which includes nonsystematic risk. Thus, Portfolio A's lower expected rate of return can be paired with a higher standard deviation, as long as Portfolio A's beta is lower than that of Portfolio B.11. Not possible. The reward-to-variability ratio for Portfolio A is better than that of themarket, which is not possible according to the CAPM, since the CAPM predicts that the market portfolio is the most efficient portfolio. Using the numbers supplied:SA =SM =16?101218?1024?0.5?0.33These figures imply that Portfolio A provides a better risk-reward tradeoff than the market portfolio.12. Not possible. Portfolio A clearly dominates the market portfolio. It has a lowerstandard deviation with a higher expected return.13. Not possible. Given these data, the SML is: E(r) = 10% + ?(18% �C 10%)A portfolio with beta of 1.5 should have an expected return of: E(r) = 10% + 1.5 ? (18% �C 10%) = 22%The expected return for Portfolio A is 16% so that Portfolio A plots below the SML (i.e., has an alpha of �C6%), and hence is an overpriced portfolio. This is inconsistent with the CAPM.14. Not possible. The SML is the same as in Problem 12. Here, the required expectedreturn for Portfolio A is: 10% + (0.9 ? 8%) = 17.2%This is still higher than 16%. Portfolio A is overpriced, with alphaequal to: �C1.2%15. Possible. Portfolio A's ratio of risk premium to standard deviationis less attractivethan the market's. This situation is consistent with the CAPM. Themarket portfolio should provide the highest reward-to-variability ratio.7-4Chapter 07 - Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing Theory16.a. FordBeta 5 yearsBeta first twp yearsBeta last two yearsSE of residualSE beta 5 yearsIntercept 5 yearsIntercept first two yearsInterceptlast two years1.812.011.9712.010.42-0.93-2.370.81GM 0.861.050.698.340.29-1.44-1.82-3.41ToyotaS&P0.711.000.473.78SD0.495.140.180.451.80-1.91 b.As a first pass we note that large standard deviation of the beta estimates. None of the subperiod estimates deviate from the overall period estimate by more than two standard deviations. That is, the t-statistic ofthe deviation from the overall period is not significant for any of the subperiod beta estimates. Looking beyond the aforementioned observation, the differences can be attributed to different alpha values during the subperiods. The case of Toyota is most revealing: The alpha estimate for the first two years is positive and for the last two years negative (both large). Following a good performance in the \Toyota surprised investors with a negative performance, beyond what could be expected from the index. This suggests that a beta of around 0.5 is more reliable. The shift of the intercepts from positive to negative when the index moved to largely negative returns,explains why the line is steeper when estimated for the overall period. Draw a line in the positive quadrant for the index with a slope of 0.5 and positive intercept. Then draw a line with similar slope in the negative quadrant ofthe index with a negative intercept. You can see that a line that reconciles the observations for both quadrants will be steeper. The same logic explains part of the behavior of subperiod betas for Ford and GM.17. Since the stock's beta is equal to 1.0, its expected rate of return should be equal to thatof the market, that is, 18%.18. If beta is zero, the cash flow should be discounted at the risk-free rate, 8%:PV = $1,000/0.08 = $12,5007-5E(r) =0.18 =D?P1P0?P0??P1 = $1099?P1?100100感谢您的阅读,祝您生活愉快。
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性,平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益,请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间:9:00-18:30)。
Investment InstitutionsWhat are Investment institutions? Contractual savings institutions -Insurance companies -Pension fundsInvestment intermediaries -Mutual funds / unit trusts -Investment trusts -Hedge funds-Private equity company❝Investment institution is a financial intermediary (company) engaged in investing in, and managing, a portfolio of securities on behalf of their shareholders. ❝Indirect investment in capital/money marketinstruments via an investment institution is the most popular way for individuals to invest surplus funds ❝In the UK, 50 –60% of equities and bonds are held and managed by investment institutions ❝Benefits: diversified portfolio, professional managements❝All investment companies charge a fee (annual expense ratio) to shareholders to pay for theoperating costs and the management fee.❝Depositary institutions◦Intermediaries with a significant proportion of their funds derived from customer deposits, e.g. Building societies. Short-term liabilities.❝Contractual savings institutions◦Typically acquire funds at periodic intervals on a contractual basis❝Investment intermediaries◦Collective investment funds, Finance companies,Investment banks, Securities firms❝Two major groups: Insurance companies and Pension funds ❝Long-term liabilities❝Liquidity of their assets is less important than for depositary institutions –they can predict with greater accuracy their future payments due to customers❝Hence, they can invest a greater proportion of funds in long-term securities (bonds,equities)❝Primary objective is to protect policyholders (firms and individuals) from adverse events ❝Receive premiums from policyholders and promise compensation if specified events occur❝Two main segments: general insurance and life insurance❝Protection against personal injury and liabilities such as accidents, theft and fire❝Usually over a fixed time period e.g. 1 year ❝Claims usually made soon after the event so liabilities are mostly short term❝Hence they hold a greater proportion of liquid assets than life insurers. Holding financial assets might be viewed as a byproduct of the business.❝Some authors (e.g. B&T) do not view this category as an investment intermediary❝Protects the policyholder in the event of death, illness or retirement; hence long-term liabilities❝Term assurance, Whole-of-life policy, Endowment policy, Annuities❝Term assurance: provides insurance cover, for specifiedperiod, against the risk of death. If the insured survivesthe specified period then no payment is made.❝Whole-of-life policy pays a capital sum on the death ofthe person assured, whenever that event occurs.❝Endowment policy pays a capital sum at the end ofsome specified term or earlier if the assured dies withinthe term.-The premium for Whole-of-life and endowment policieswill be higher than for term assurance.❝Annuities: A policyholder pay an initial lump sumwhich used by the insurance company to providean agreed income until death.-The insurance company immediately creates a fund❝Risk: certain sums are guaranteed to be paid in thefuture and these sums exceed the value of thepremiums over the life of the contract.❝Match the term structure of its assets and liabilities❝Invest in long-term assets e.g. bonds, equities andmortgages.❝Provide retirement income (in the form ofannuities) to employees covered by a pension plan❝Personal scheme and public (state) scheme❝Funded scheme and unfunded (pay-as-you-go)scheme❝Funded scheme: Receive contributions fromemployers and/or employees and invest thesefunds in assets, including equities and bonds.Returns from the investment are used to paybenefits to members of the scheme.❝Two main types of funded scheme: defined benefit(DB) and defined contribution (DC)❝DB: the sponsor agrees to pay members ofthe scheme a pension equal to apredetermined percentage of their finalsalary (average salary), subject to themember‟s years of service❝DC: the return on the investmentsdetermines pension benefits❝Occupational schemes where the sponsor isthe employer have historically been DB,while private pensions are DC❝Risk: benefits to be paid are not known with certainty;inflation complications as it increases the benefits to bepaid by fund.❝Benefit from tax deferral: in the UK, contributions arenot taxable, pensioner pays income tax❝Pension fund trustees will determine the overallinvestment strategy❝They will often decide what proportion of assets to beheld in different asset classes❝Asset mix will be influenced by the maturity of the fund❝Long-term liabilities hence long-term assets❝Index-linked bonds, Equities❝Investment companies are classified, depending on whether their own capitalisation (number of shares outstanding) is constantly changing or fixed:-Open-end : capitalisation constantly changing; new investors buy additional shares from the company and some existing shareholders sell their shares back to the company.-Closed-end : fixed capitalization; share traded onexchange.open-ended❝Mutual funds / unit trusts❝Open-ended investment companies OEICsClosed ended❝Investment trusts ❝Hedge funds❝Private equity company❝Pool resources from many individuals andcompanies and invest these in a range of assets ❝Provide opportunities for small investors to investin a diversified fund at low cost❝Take advantage of lower transaction costs in trading larger blocks of securities❝Trusts in the legal sense; controlled and monitored by trustees; who act as guardian of the assets on behalf of the beneficial owners ❝Investment decisions❝When an investor buys a stake in a unit trust, he/she purchases a new unit in the fund (unless matched with a seller by the fund manager)❝Open-ended fund where the size of the fund can varyaccording to the number of contributors to the fund ❝Price of each unit reflects current value of the fund divided by the number of outstanding units❝All sales and purchases of units are made with the trust manager.❝Do not trade on stock exchange.❝Dual pricing structure: offer price (investors buy units)and bid price (investors sell units back to the trust)❝Annual management fee (usually 0.5 -1% of the funds under management), plus the bid-offer spread on buying and selling units❝Limited in the amount that can be invested in any single security❝Total return for a mutual fund includes reinvestment dividends and capital gain.❝A cumulative total return measures the actual performance over 3, 5 or 10 years.❝In Jan 2009, 8,000 domestic mutual funds withassets of $9.4 trillion in the US.❝Short-term funds:-Money market mutual funds ❝Long-term funds: -Capital market funds;-Equity (stock) funds, Bond funds or Hybrid(balanced) funds (hold combination of stocks and bonds)-Index funds: mutual funds holding an managed portfolio of bonds or stocks designed to match particular market index, such as S&P 500. Has low expenses ratio.❝OEICs operate similarly to a unit trust in the sense that they are open-ended❝But an OEIC has a company structure and can be listed on the stock exchange ❝Shares will reflect the value of the fund ❝Shares will have a single price (rather than the separate buying and selling prices indicated for unit trusts)❝Companies whose business is the investment of funds in financial assets.❝A closed-end fund, only able to raise more funds through rights issue shares or borrowing (bonds) ❝Not a trust in the legal sense; limited liability company with listed shares (traded in stock market).❝Investors can purchase ordinary shares of the ITC ❝A portfolio, managed by ITC‟s board of directors who determine the investment strategy❝Not faced with outflow of funds, so investment strategy does not depend on maintaining cash flows to meet future liabilities❝The existence of borrowed funds in the capitalstructure implies a …gearing effect‟ on the value of the ITC shares❝Net asset value (NAV) per share is the value of assetsless debt divided by number of issued shares-E.g. ITC capital structure: £8m in equities (4m shares) + £2m debt. Thus the NAV per share = £2-If the value of ITC asset portfolio were to doubled to £20m, then the NAV per would increase to £4.5 (£18m/4m shares)-A 100% in the value of assets held has led to an increase in the NAV per share of 125%❝The gearing effect is of benefit to shareholders in a rising stock market.❝The hedge funds are largely unregulated❝Reputation is as risky funds, shrouded by mystery and only accessible to the wealthy.❝According to IFSL, the number of hedge funds increased from 4,000 with $324bn of assets in 1999 to peak of 11,000 with $2,150bn in 2007, and then declined to 10,000 hedge funds and $1,500bn by the start of 2009. ❝There is no unique definition of hedge fund since it is an industry term rather than a legal term❝“Includes a multitude of skill -based investment strategies with a broad range of risk and returnobjectives. A common element is the use of investment and risk management skills to seek positive returns regardless of market direction.”❝A hedge fund is an actively managed investment fund ❝Seeks an attractive …absolute return‟, a return whether the market go up or down.❝Do not follow any benchmark, but rather just try to generate high returns (larger than ordinary available return) while managing risks, by exploiting various market opportunities❝Typical strategies include -Short selling,-Borrowing, Leverage -Use of derivatives❝Fees include a fixed fee and management fee e.g. 1-2% of assets plus 20-25% of upside performance.Hedge fundsMutual funds and pension fundsInvestment trusts FreedomLimitation on borrowing, short selling, and the use of derivatives May borrow Limitations on short selling, and the use of derivatives❝Typical investors◦Wealthy individuals ◦Pension funds◦Other hedge funds, creating …funds of hedge funds‟ –diversity in strategy and risk❝Returns and risk can vary a great deal among the different hedge fund strategies❝Market neutral (or relative value arbitrage) funds ◦Attempt to produce returns that have no or low correlation with e.g. equity markets◦Highly quantitative portfolio construction◦Concentrate on the relative value of individual shares, bonds, currencies ...◦Commonly apply arbitrage strategies-e.g. exploit mispricing between an underlying asset and a derivative instrument-Concentrate on the difference in performance of two given securities in homogenous universe. E.g. belief that BP will do better than X in oil firm; go long on BP and short on X.-Take position with convertible bonds❝Long/short funds-Generally invest in equity and bonds, taking directional bets on individual security or sector-Analyse individual companies and individual shares-Micro investors (look at individual/specific stocks)-Some may specialize in geographical sectors -Others may specialize in either small or large companies -E.g. 130/30-Timing is crucial-Stock-picking skill (short selling overpriced stocks and buying underpriced stocks)-Not automatically market neutral e.g. could havestrong positive correlation with equityGlobal (macro) asset funds-Look at stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities from a global point of view -Macro-investors (look at broad themes) -Have positive exposure to the market-A fund might go long in sectors they believe will provide good returns, and short on countries they believe will have negative returns❝Event driven funds-Looks to exploit special situations -Take over bids-Merger, Corporate restructuring❝A group of individuals set up a limited liabilitypartnership, might have a limited life of around 10 years.❝Make good returns by buying public companies or neglected subsidiaries at good price and turning them into more attractive business❝They will gear up with debt that a public company would not want to risk.❝Normally be turned into non-quoted company❝They get involved in the business, bringing their own expertise and give managers big incentives to improve the business❝They seek cut costs, squeeze suppliers and sell unwanted assets, sell and lease back property ❝Large amount of leverage involved❝They take their profit in a variety of ways:-Refloat the company-Sell the company to someone else in the same business -Refinancing❝The private equity market was boosted in the early 2000s.❝IFSL shows that the global private equity investment amounted to $176.6bn in 2000, this increased to $317.6bn in 2007, then hit by the credit crisis andfell to $189bn.❝In the UK, well-known firms that are or have been owned by private equity groups: Boots, Iceland, Debenhams, New Look, Kwik-Fit❝E.g. In Dec. 2003, a group of private equity firms-Texas Pacific, CVC and Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity-bough Debenhams for £1.7bn, of which £600m was their own capital.❝In two refinancing in 2004 and 2005, they reconstructed the balance sheet with new borrowings and paid themselves back £1.3bn(twice of their original capital) in about 18 months. ❝They refloated Debenhams in May 2006.Explain the different types of investment institution. Identify and analyse the factors that will influence the investment strategy applied by each type of institution.。