Topic 2

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• Trough 萧条 Low levels of investment and consumption expenditure – businesses failures very high Very high unemployment levels, very few job vacancies High levels of excess production capacity Business confidence very low Very low interest rates – little demand for loans Very low level of economic growth
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
60000.0 50000.0 40000.0 30000.0 20000.0 10000.0 0.0
19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06
2010-9-3 张运龙 宏观经济学 3
• Recession 衰退 Reduced expenditure in investment and consumption Decreasing levels of employment, lower levels of job vacancies, less pressure for wage increases Increasing levels of excess production capacity Falling business confidence as business viability worsens Falling interest rates – less demand for loans A fall in the rate of economic growth More stable price levels
Topic2 Business Cycle and Economic Growth 经济周期和经济增长
The modern world regards business cycles much as the ancient Egyptians regarded the overflowing of the Nile. The phenomenon recurs at intervals, it is of great importance to everyone, and natural causes of it are not in sight. — John Bates Clark, 1898
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Байду номын сангаас
人均国内生产总值增长32.4倍，我国由低收入 国家跃升至世界中等偏下收入国家行列，年均 增长6.5%。
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经济结构实现由低级到高级、不均衡到相对均衡的巨大调 整 ，工业结构实现了从门类简单到齐全，从以轻工业为主 到轻、重工业共同发展，从以劳动密集型工业为主导，向 劳动、资本和技术密集型共同发展的转变。
2010-9-3 张运龙 宏观经济学 5
• Recovery 恢复 Increasing expenditure in investment and consumption Rising employment and wage levels High levels of production and use of resources High levels of business confidence and profit expectations Increasing interest rates Increased production costs Increasing price levels (inflation)
Real GDP shows growth in the overall size of the economy. But real GDP per capita(人均GDP) takes into account the population, and so is used to measure standards of living.
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Actual Business Cycle
16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
Real GDP ($billions)
Source ABS, Catalogue No 5206, Table 32
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• Peak 繁荣 Reduced expenditure in investment – business failure Very high levels of employment, labour shortages and pressure for wage increases Shortages of materials and other resources Falling business confidence and lower profit expectations Relatively high interest rates Increased production costs Relatively very high price levels (high inflation rate)
×100%
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year 1993 1994 1995
GDP at market prices (¥ ) 30,000 35,200 50,000
Price index (base year 1993) 100 110 125
Real GDP(¥ )
Economic growth
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Living standard —measured by real GDP per person
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第一层：人均40000+的 1 上海 72536 2 北京 63029 3 天津 55473 4.浙江 42214 第二层 人均30000--40000的 5 江苏 39080 6 广东 37588 7 山东 33083 8 内蒙古 32214 9 辽宁 31259 10 福建 30123 第三层 人均20000--30000的 11 吉林 23514 12 河北 23239 13 黑龙江 21727 14 山西 20398
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城镇居民人均可支配收入由1949年的不足100元提 高到2008年的15781元，扣除价格因素，增长18.5 倍，年均增长5.2%，
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Economic growth = prosperity and increase in standard of living 经济增长=生活水平的提高
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Economic growth refers to expansion of national output. Usually measured as % change in annual real GDP. real GDPt-real GDPt-1 Economic growtht= real GDPt-1
2010-9-3 张运龙 宏观经济学 1
Business cycle
Peak
Level of business activity
Peak
Peak
Trough Trough
Time
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Business cycle: The recurrent, somewhat cyclical, increases and decreases in the level or rate of growth in economic activity that typify the pattern of progress of our economy’s real GDP over time. 经济活动水平有规律地经历扩张和收缩的周期性 波动 There are four phases in the business cycle: – Peak – Recession – Trough – Recovery
实际GDP
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Economic growth
“Which would you rather be? An ordinary, middleclass Chinese living today, or the richest person in China at the time of 1960s?”
1996
60,000
150
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year
GDP at market prices (¥ ) 30000 35200 50000 60000
1993 1994 1995 1996
Price index (base year is 1993) 100 110 125 150