02-陈新平-高产高效理论与技术-20130715

到本世纪中页，世界粮食需增加70-110%
中国人口增长和粮食需求预测
China’s population is over 1.3 billion at the moment and is expected to reach a peak in 2033 at 1.5 billion. If it is assumed that grain food per capita will increase from today’s 400 kg to 470 kg in 2033, it will be necessary to increase grain production by at least 35% during the next 20 years.
高产高效理论与技术
陈新平
中国农业大学资源环境与粮食安全研究中心 chenxp@
报告提纲
高产与高效: 重要性与科学意义 高产高效的目标与途径
高产高效的理论与技术
世界人口增长预测
Global population, which increased 3.7-fold during the 20th century, to 6 billion people, is forecast to increase to 7.5 billion by the year 2020 and to about 9 billion by 2050.
Zhang, JXB, 2012 To meet the demand for grain and to feed a growing population on the remaining arable land by 2030, crop production must reach 5.8 MT (an increase of >40%), and yield needs to increase by 2% annually. Zhang et al., JEQ, 2011
2030年，我国人口达到14-15亿，粮食需增长35-40%，每年需增长2%。
我国的氮肥消费、粮食生产与氮肥偏生产力
（Guo, Liu, Zhang et al., 2010, Science）
研究证明，1980-2010年间中国大气氮沉降显著增加，增幅达60%， 氮沉降升高是因农业、工业及交通源活性氮排放快速增长所致， 其中2/3来自农业源。
东北 华北 西南 西北
(方菲，2013，中国农业大学硕士学位论文)
一般来说，将高产高效研究的产量目标设定为产量潜力的 80-85%（或相当于当地高产记录）
效率潜力
以氮肥偏生产力为例。氮肥偏生产力 = 产量 / 氮肥用量 在可持续的集约化高生产力体系中，最理想的养分管理措施可以做到氮肥用 量与作物吸氮量的平衡 （详细见崔振岭以前的报告） 则：效率潜力(以氮肥偏生产力计算) =产量 / 作物吸氮量 = 100 / 百公斤籽粒吸氮量
Bottom-up
Current level
Top-down
明确产量和效率潜力
Ceiling of yield and RUE
实现产量和效率潜力的理论假设
30-50% increasing of yield and RUE
高产高效的实践验证
产量潜力
产量潜力、水分限制下产量潜力和实际产量 （Cassman et al., 2003）
70
a
Bulk N deposition (kg N ha-1)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 16 1980 b
y=0.411x-804.353 (r2=0.070; n=671; p<0.001)
Bulk N concentration (mg N L-1)
Annual N deposition 1980s: 13.2 kg N ha-1 2000s: 21.1 kg N ha-1 Ratio of NH4-N to NO3-N deposition 1980s: 5.0 2000s: 2.0 Nr emission 1980s: 8.0 Tg N/yr 2000s: 18.9 Tg N/yr, NH4-N emission: 12.6 Tg N/yr
Tilman et al., Nature, 2002
To feed a world population expected to surpass 9 billion in 2050, it’s estimated that agricultural output will have to increase by 70 percent between now and then.
（理念性工作）
具体措施 + 区域宏观数据
高产高效历程
提升产量
（以提升产量为 主要目标）
Integrated / organic farming
Green revolution
诺贝尔奖 Norman Borlaug
代表性文章
玉米矮杆， 小麦，水 稻高抗性 品种 (Lockeretz et al., 1981. Science; Maeder et al., 2002. Science; Reganold et al., 2001. Nature; Kramer et al., 2006. PNAS; Robertson et al., 2000. Science)
作物产量平台的划分与产量差的计算 （Lobell et al., 2009）
我国玉米的产量潜力与高产记录
区域 产量潜力 (t/ha) 17.56 18.68 19.63 19.70 高产记录 (t/ha) 14.38 13.17% 13.25 16.61 实现率 (%) 82% 70% 67% 84%
高产春玉米PFPn的潜力 = 100 / 1.8 = 55 高产冬小麦PFPn的潜力 = 100 / 2.3 = 44 高产水稻PFPn的潜力 = 100/1.8~2.0 = 50~55 (寒地水稻：100/1.5=70)
The world population is expected to reach 9.3 billion in 2050.
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision Volume I, Comprehensive Tables (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York, 2010)
World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, vol. 1999 I, Comprehensive Tables (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York, 1999).
1985
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 25 1980 c
y=0.063x-123.683 (r2=0.102; n=866; p<0.001)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1985
1990
NH4-N/NO3-N in precipitation
20 15 10 5 0
y= -0.144x+291.118 (r2=0.176; n=809; p<0.001)
World Summit on Food Security, 2009, Rome
This relationship forecasts a 100–110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050.
Tilman et al., PNAS, 2011
1995

2000
2005
2010
.
(Liu X.J. and Zhang Y., et al., 2013. Nature)
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
全世界作物总产最高的前十个国家的 单产和氮肥偏生产力
单位面积产量
8.0 7.0 Cereal PFPN (kg/kg) Cereal yield (t/ha) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
A three-step strategy for modern agricultural research in China
The target of agricultural research moved from increases efficiency by reducing input in the first step to synergistically increase both crop yield and resource use efficiency by 10-20% in second step, and by 30-50% in third step.
代表性文章 (Evenson et al., 2003. Science; Olmstead and Rhode, 2011. PNAS)
1970s以前
1980s
90s-2000s
当前
报告提纲
高产与高效: 重要性与科学意义 高产高效的目标与途径
高产高效的理论与技术
“双高”农业的三步走战略
(Zhang et al., 2012 )
Research approaches for “Double High Agriculture”
Ceiling of yield and RUE
Top-down